Macro Research - The report highlights a "double hit" moment for US dollar assets due to Trump's comments on Greenland and tariff threats, alongside the early dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [3][4][22] - The US dollar's credit breakdown is re-emerging, with significant impacts on US stocks, bonds, and currencies, resulting in a strong performance of safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while cryptocurrencies face pressure [3][4][22] Strategy Research - In Q4 2025, active funds significantly reduced their holdings in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on increasing allocations to cyclical and financial value stocks, while reducing exposure to technology and healthcare sectors [7][26] - The report indicates a clear rotation in fund styles, with a notable shift towards large-cap cyclical and financial stocks, while growth and consumer sectors saw reductions in allocations [26][27] Fixed Income Research - The appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlements may tighten interbank liquidity, depending on whether the central bank will actively increase the supply of base currency [11][14] Industry Research: Photovoltaic Equipment - The report anticipates a new cycle for the photovoltaic equipment industry driven by SpaceX and Tesla's plans to deploy a combined 200GW of solar capacity, with key equipment manufacturers expected to benefit [15][16] - The demand for solar expansion is expected to rise due to the increasing need for low-orbit satellites and the commercialization of space computing, which will drive the demand for core equipment [15][16] Fund Allocation Insights - The report notes a significant increase in allocations to cyclical and financial sectors, particularly in upstream industries like metals and chemicals, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions [27][28] - The technology sector shows a marked divergence, with communication equipment receiving substantial increases due to AI infrastructure investments, while many tech segments faced reductions [27][28]

Group 1 - PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) is considered one of the most undervalued foreign stocks to buy according to analysts, despite facing regulatory challenges and increased competition [1][2] - The company was fined 100,000 yuan (approximately $14,359) by the Shanghai district taxation bureau for failing to submit tax information as required [1] - Wall Street analysts remain bullish on PDD, with Citi assigning a Buy rating and a price target of $170, while Morgan Stanley reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $148 [3] Group 2 - PDD Holdings Inc. has been facing increased regulatory scrutiny, including an anti-monopoly investigation, leading Morgan Stanley to remove it from its list of top picks [4] - The company operates a leading e-commerce group with platforms such as Pinduoduo and Temu, supported by a robust logistics and fulfillment network [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the booming Chinese hot pot market, driven by regional flavors and the e-commerce platform Pinduoduo, which facilitates the distribution of local delicacies across the country [1][2][12] Group 1: Regional Flavors and E-commerce - Pinduoduo's "Duoduo Good Specialty" initiative enables the delivery of diverse regional hot pot ingredients, such as Hainan's coconut chicken and Ningxia's lamb, to consumers nationwide [1][2] - The integration of local flavors into the hot pot culture reflects a significant shift in Chinese dining, allowing for a blend of tastes from different regions [2][12] Group 2: Success Stories of Local Entrepreneurs - Entrepreneur Yu Hua has successfully scaled his coconut chicken business on Pinduoduo, achieving nearly 200,000 orders annually by leveraging the platform's marketing and logistics [3][4][5] - The story of Lao Tang illustrates the rise of Chaozhou-style hot pot, with his business thriving by ensuring quality through direct sourcing and innovative processing techniques [6][7] - Niu Qinglei transformed the sales model for Salt Lake sheep, utilizing e-commerce to expand his market reach and significantly increase sales, particularly during peak seasons [9][10][11] Group 3: Consumer Preferences and Market Trends - The demand for diverse hot pot ingredients is growing, with consumers increasingly favoring fresh, high-quality products that cater to various regional tastes [6][7][12] - Pinduoduo's promotional strategies, such as the "Billion Subsidy" program, allow businesses to offer competitive pricing while maintaining product quality, attracting a loyal customer base [5][8] - The evolving consumer preferences indicate a shift towards healthier options, with a rising interest in organic and antibiotic-free ingredients in hot pot dishes [7][12]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a rating of "Buy" for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) [1] Core Insights - The domestic main site is entering a phase of high-quality and stable development, while the overseas platform TEMU is creating a second growth pole, initiating a new cycle of value reassessment [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: - 2023: 247,639 million RMB - 2024: 393,836 million RMB - 2025E: 434,930 million RMB - 2026E: 514,929 million RMB - 2027E: 588,823 million RMB - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 67,899 million RMB - 2024: 122,344 million RMB - 2025E: 114,810 million RMB - 2026E: 131,702 million RMB - 2027E: 156,059 million RMB - The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 15.5 in 2023 to 6.7 in 2027 [4][41] Overseas Business (TEMU) - TEMU has rapidly grown to become the second-largest comprehensive e-commerce user pool globally, with MAU reaching 540 million by the second half of 2025, which is 77% of Amazon's MAU [11][30] - The transition from a fully managed model to a semi-managed model is expected to enhance profitability and user experience, with a projected breakeven point for the unit economics model by 2026 [20][30] - TEMU's unique advantage lies in leveraging China's supply chain to meet global consumer demand, enhancing operational efficiency and cost competitiveness [28][29] Domestic Business - Pinduoduo is expected to maintain a GMV growth rate of 10%-15% in 2025, outpacing the industry average, despite the reduction in subsidies [31][42] - The company focuses on a "low price + experience" strategy, which solidifies its competitive moat in the market [31][42] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 4,349 million RMB, 5,149 million RMB, and 5,888 million RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1,148 million RMB, 1,317 million RMB, and 1,561 million RMB [41][42] - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating a reasonable market value of approximately 299.6 billion USD for Pinduoduo, with a target price of 201.39 USD [44][50]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a rating of "Buy" for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) [1] Core Insights - The domestic main site is entering a phase of high-quality and stable development, while the overseas platform TEMU is creating a second growth pole, initiating a new cycle of value reassessment [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: - 2023: 247,639 million RMB - 2024: 393,836 million RMB - 2025E: 434,930 million RMB - 2026E: 514,929 million RMB - 2027E: 588,823 million RMB - Net profit projections are: - 2023: 67,899 million RMB - 2024: 122,344 million RMB - 2025: 114,810 million RMB - 2026: 131,702 million RMB - 2027: 156,059 million RMB - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 15.5 in 2023 to 6.7 in 2027 [4][41] Overseas Business (TEMU) - TEMU has rapidly grown to become the second-largest comprehensive e-commerce user pool globally, with MAU reaching 540 million by the second half of 2025, achieving 77% of Amazon's MAU [11][30] - The transition from a fully managed to a semi-managed model is expected to enhance profitability and user experience, with a projected breakeven point for the unit economics model by 2026 [20][30] - TEMU's unique advantage lies in leveraging China's supply chain to meet global consumer demand, enhancing operational efficiency and cost competitiveness [28][29] Domestic Business - Pinduoduo is expected to maintain a GMV growth rate of 10%-15% in 2025, outpacing the industry average, despite the reduction in subsidies [31][42] - The company focuses on a "low price + experience" strategy, which solidifies its competitive edge in the market [31] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 434,930 million RMB, 514,929 million RMB, and 588,823 million RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 114,810 million RMB, 131,702 million RMB, and 156,059 million RMB [41][43] - The report estimates a reasonable market value of approximately 299.6 billion USD for Pinduoduo, with a target price of 201.39 USD per share, indicating a high margin of safety at the current stock price [44][50]

Core Insights - The competition in instant retail is intensifying, with major platforms like JD and Meituan significantly increasing their daily order volumes, indicating a shift in consumer expectations towards faster delivery services [3][6] - Pinduoduo is exploring a middle ground in the instant retail space by offering next-day and day-after delivery services, rather than directly competing in the immediate delivery segment [2][10] - The evolving consumer behavior shows a growing reliance on online food delivery, with a notable increase in users browsing and ordering through delivery apps [5][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Instant retail is blurring the lines between near-field and far-field e-commerce, with platforms like Taobao and JD offering rapid delivery options that challenge traditional e-commerce models [6][14] - The rapid growth in order volumes for non-food items reflects a broader trend where consumers are increasingly willing to purchase a variety of products through instant retail channels [3][5] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with platforms emphasizing speed ("fast") as a differentiator over price ("cheap"), which has been the traditional narrative in e-commerce [6][13] Group 2: Pinduoduo's Strategy - Pinduoduo has not fully engaged in the instant retail battle but is adapting its strategy by enhancing its warehousing and logistics capabilities to offer next-day delivery [2][9] - The company is testing a new service called "Billion Supermarket," which aims to cover a wide range of daily necessities while still operating within its traditional online retail framework [9][10] - Pinduoduo's cautious approach to instant retail aligns with its core user base, which tends to prioritize cost over immediate delivery [8][16] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - A significant portion of users has reported increased frequency in using food delivery apps, indicating a shift in consumer habits towards online dining options [5][8] - The expectation for faster delivery is becoming a natural consideration for consumers, influencing their purchasing decisions across multiple platforms [18][19] - The balance between speed and cost remains critical, as consumers weigh their options based on various factors beyond just delivery time [13][17]

Core Insights - The Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) service is entering a "2.0" phase, particularly in China, where the market is experiencing strong growth, with BNPL accounting for 2% of e-commerce transaction volume and projected to reach 928.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1][9]. Group 1: Industry Overview - BNPL, also known as "buy now, pay later," is a new payment method that allows consumers to receive products before making payment, essentially functioning as a short-term credit product [4]. - The BNPL service is primarily provided by local leading applications or well-known e-commerce platforms in China, such as Ant Group's Huabei, JD's Baitiao, and WeChat's Fenfu, which significantly promote its adoption and growth [1][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The BNPL industry is characterized by a high concentration of major players, with e-commerce platforms like JD and Pinduoduo leading the market by integrating BNPL services into their shopping processes [11]. - The main user demographic for BNPL services is the younger generation, who prefer flexible payment options over traditional credit cards due to simpler application processes and lower barriers to entry [9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape of the BNPL industry is defined by a dominance of e-commerce platforms, collaboration with payment networks, and the presence of niche vertical platforms that fill market gaps [11]. - JD Group has developed its BNPL product, JD Baitiao, which allows users to enjoy flexible payment options across various scenarios, including online and offline purchases [12]. Group 4: Future Trends - Future innovations in the BNPL industry will focus on smart, personalized, and secure solutions, leveraging big data and AI for better credit assessments and utilizing blockchain for transaction security [14]. - The market competition is expected to intensify, with smaller BNPL providers facing potential acquisitions or mergers, while innovative companies may emerge as industry leaders [15]. - Regulatory scrutiny is anticipated to increase, with governments likely to implement stricter regulations on BNPL services regarding fees, terms, and transparency to protect consumer rights [16].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural opportunities in both domestic demand and overseas expansion for 2026, particularly focusing on new services and new retail sectors [2][24] - It highlights the positive resonance between policy and fundamentals, suggesting that leading companies in the commercial sector are likely to benefit from policy stimuli and improve their fundamentals [2][4] Domestic Demand - The report identifies new services and new retail as the main lines for domestic demand, with a focus on the marginal changes in the fundamentals of related sub-sectors [2][5] - Specific sub-sectors showing price increase potential include: - **Hotels**: Strong leisure demand and optimized supply structure, with prices expected to remain stable or slightly increase. Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and Shoulv Hotels [2][3] - **Duty-Free**: With the opening of Hainan, the sector is stabilizing, and China Duty Free is highlighted as a key player [2][3] - **Gold and Jewelry**: The report notes a high volatility in gold prices but anticipates improved terminal sales. Recommended companies include Chow Tai Fook and Lao Puhuang [2][3] - **Mother and Baby**: Leading companies are expected to maintain steady growth, supported by favorable policies. Recommended companies include Kidswant and Aiyingshi [2][3] Sub-Sectors Driven by Volume Growth - The report suggests focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for sectors primarily driven by volume growth: - **Supermarkets**: CPI increases are beneficial for same-store sales, with a shift in focus from store adjustments to supply chain reforms. Recommended companies include Yonghui Superstores and Jiajiayue [3][5] - **Tourism**: The report highlights the potential for expansion and asset integration in the tourism sector, recommending companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Changbai Mountain [3][5] - **Dining**: Emphasizes refined operations and incentives for leading companies, with recommendations including Yum China and Haidilao [3][5] - **Tea Drinks**: The report notes that delivery subsidies may impact pricing, with store openings expected to drive growth. Recommended companies include Mixue and Gu Ming [3][5] Overseas Expansion - The report indicates that leading companies with high barriers to entry are expected to continue showing strong performance in overseas markets, with a focus on brand building and diversified destinations [4][24] - Recommended companies for overseas expansion include: - **Small Commodity City** and **Miniso**: Both are noted for their strong performance and brand development [4][24] - **Anker Innovations** and **Sumida**: Highlighted for their competitive advantages in specific segments [4][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that for 2026, investors should focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and those with strong performance certainty in overseas markets [5][24] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of volume in certain sectors while maintaining a cautious approach to pricing stability [5][24]

Group 1: U.S. and Greenland Island Dispute - The U.S. President Trump expressed intentions to negotiate the purchase of Greenland, emphasizing its strategic importance to U.S. national security [3][8] - Trump criticized Denmark for its perceived ingratitude regarding Greenland and stated that no other country could ensure its security [3] - The international response included strong opposition from European leaders, particularly the UK, asserting that the future of Greenland should be determined by its people and Denmark [8] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 418 points and the Nasdaq index increasing by over 1% [5] - Notable increases in Chinese concept stocks were observed, with Baidu rising by 7.12% and iQIYI by 7.03% [5][8] - The market reacted to Trump's comments, with gold prices initially dropping by $40 before stabilizing at $4849.49 per ounce [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Trump announced plans to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair, indicating dissatisfaction with current Chair Powell's timing on interest rate adjustments [7] - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged during the January meeting, contrary to previous expectations of potential rate cuts [7] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased, with Trump criticizing its failure to lower rates and the Justice Department threatening investigations into the Fed [7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces short-term resistance at 27,188 points, with expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2026 following the Federal Reserve's recent rate reduction of 0.25% [2] - The market anticipates increased monetary policy easing in mainland China, particularly in the first quarter of 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand and achieving technological self-reliance [2] - Recent adjustments in financing margin ratios by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges may lead to short-term market pullbacks, affecting the momentum of Hong Kong stocks [2] Sector Outlook - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a peak travel season during the extended Spring Festival holiday, alongside favorable conditions from the appreciation of the RMB and soft oil prices [3] - High-dividend stocks are likely to attract capital as market risk appetite decreases, leading to increased investment in defensive sectors [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE inflation rose by 2.8% in November, aligning with expectations, while the GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised to 4.4%, exceeding forecasts [3][6] - China is projected to set its economic growth target for 2026 between 4.5% and 5%, lower than the previous year's target of around 5% [6] - The People's Bank of China indicated room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to maintain liquidity [6] Corporate News - Alibaba is preparing to list its semiconductor division, Pingtouge, to capitalize on investor interest in AI accelerator companies [9] - Baidu has launched the official version of its Wenxin large model 5.0, which supports various forms of information processing [9] - Pop Mart has restarted its share buyback program, with significant media coverage expected to boost its stock price [9] Investment Trends - KPMG's report on the Hong Kong banking sector indicates optimism for wealth management and IPO markets, suggesting growth opportunities for banks in 2026 [7] - The report highlights the importance of digital asset development and AI innovation in enhancing the competitive landscape of Hong Kong's banking industry [7]