Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the first quarter, primarily due to the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China, which adversely affected its e-Commerce platform [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The earnings report for PDD Holdings indicated a significant impact from the U.S.-China trade spat, highlighting the company's vulnerability in the current geopolitical climate [1] - The ownership of Temu exposes Pinduoduo to the tariff conflict, further complicating its operational landscape [1] Group 2: Market Context - The trade tensions between the U.S. and China are creating a challenging environment for e-Commerce companies, with PDD Holdings being directly affected [1]

在互联网行业 AI 浪潮汹涌，众多企业纷纷追逐风口之时，拼多多交出的 2025 年第一季度财报，在市 场中激起千层浪。 财报显示，一季度拼多多实现营收 957 亿元，同比增长 10%。营业利润为160.856亿元，同比下降 38%。非美国通用会计准则下营业利润为182.597亿元，同比下降36%。财报公布后，拼多多股价一度大 跌，最终收跌接近14%。 然而，这场看似 "失意" 的财报背后，实则暗藏着拼多多对电商行业未来发展的深刻洞察与坚定抉择。 一、业绩背后的战略取舍 从表面数据看，拼多多业绩不及预期，资本市场也用股价的剧烈波动表达了担忧。但拨开迷雾深入分 析，便会发现，这一切都源于拼多多在电商行业变革期的关键战略抉择。 随着业务规模的持续扩大，外部竞争环境变得日益复杂，市场增长速度的放缓已成为行业的普遍现象。 然而，与一些企业为追求短期利益而采取收缩战略的做法迥异，拼多多选择了支持电商可持续发展的高 质量路径。 事实上，自去年下半年起，拼多多便加速推进高质量发展战略。彼时，电商行业面临流量红利消退、消 费需求分层的双重压力，头部平台纷纷寻求破局路径。 拼多多率先推出 "百亿减免""电商西进" 等举措，前者通 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 increased by 10.2% year-on-year, while GAAP net profit decreased by 47.3% [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased costs from platform investments and uncertainties in overseas tariffs [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing platform competitiveness and supporting merchants through various initiatives [3] Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue reached 956.72 billion yuan, with a GAAP net profit of 147.42 billion yuan [1] - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 57.2%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to overseas expansion and increased promotional spending [2] - Online marketing service revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, while commission revenue increased by 6% [3] Cost Structure - Sales expense ratio increased by 7.9 percentage points to 34.9% in Q1 2025, driven by higher promotional expenditures [2] - Management expense ratio decreased slightly to 1.7%, reflecting improved overall efficiency [2] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for GAAP net profit has been revised down by 34%/37%/41% for 2025/2026/2027 to 910.06/1002.16/1082.33 billion yuan [4] - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 437.71 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11% [5] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a P/E ratio of 11 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 2.4 [5][13] - The expected EPS for 2025 is 16.03 yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Hold" [6] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 total revenue was 95.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, but below the consensus estimate of 103.9 billion RMB. The non-GAAP net profit was 16.9 billion RMB, corresponding to a non-GAAP net profit margin of 17.7%, down 17.6 percentage points year-on-year, and also below the consensus estimate of 26.8% [1] - The underperformance in earnings is attributed to increased investments in domestic e-commerce to address market share disadvantages and improve the merchant ecosystem, as well as aggressive investments in overseas e-commerce to accelerate the transition to a semi-managed model [1][2] - The company has launched a "100 billion support" plan that may continue to impact profitability in the short to medium term, alongside geopolitical risks that add uncertainty [1] Domestic E-commerce - In Q1 2025, the company's online marketplace service revenue grew by 14.8% to 48.7 billion RMB, outperforming the consensus estimate of 13.5% growth. However, transaction service revenue increased by only 5.8% to 47 billion RMB, falling short of the expected 56 billion RMB due to aggressive merchant support and commission reductions [2] - Management shared specific initiatives for merchant support, including the "10 billion reduction" plan and the "100 billion support" plan, which aim to stabilize sales and reduce operating costs for small and medium-sized merchants [2] - The company expects that the adjustment in commercialization levels and the establishment of a healthy merchant ecosystem will take time, leading to continued pressure on revenue growth and profit release in the short term [2] Overseas E-commerce - During Q1 2025 to Q2 2025, the company's overseas e-commerce business, Temu, is transitioning its merchant supply model from fully managed to semi-managed to mitigate tariff risks. However, fluctuating policies are expected to negatively impact its fully managed business in the U.S. [3] - The company anticipates that Temu will require further investment to help quality merchants establish overseas warehouse capabilities and explore growth opportunities in non-U.S. regions, delaying the timeline for profitability [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with non-GAAP net profit estimates reduced by 37.2%, 25.3%, and 20.3% to 80.1 billion RMB, 106.5 billion RMB, and 127.7 billion RMB respectively [4][19] - The new target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 102.3 USD, down from 144.5 USD, with valuations for domestic e-commerce, Duoduo Maicai, and Temu at 74.6 USD, 4.9 USD, and 22.8 USD respectively [4][24] - The valuation multiples have been adjusted downwards due to lower visibility on profit growth during the investment period and increased competition in the sector [4][24]

全球生意不好做。 作者 | 黄昱 编辑 | 周智宇 来源 | 全天候科技 （ID：iawtmt） 过去十年，跨境电商草莽掘金，一夜暴富的神话，正在迅速退潮。 王 策 （ 化 名 ） ， 一 位 在 跨 境 浪 潮 中 摸 爬 滚 打 了 近 八 年 的 舵 手 ， 曾 经 动 辄 爆 单 、 利 润 丰 厚，日赚斗金，然而如今他的店销量仅能勉强维持在高峰期的三分之一，全球开店的浪 漫想象也已被现实的骨感击碎。 过去两年多，TEMU携大量拼多多商家汹涌出海，分食了原本偏小众的跨境电商生意， 美国在2025年4月悍然取消中国商品的 "小额免税" 政策，又成为最后一根稻草，随后 关税飙升，让那些高度依赖直邮小包模式的中国玩家遭遇直接冲击。 不仅是个体商家，以TEMU为代表的跨境平台，也被迫从过去依赖免税小单、极致低价 和高效供应链，为海外消费者营造"像亿万富翁一样购物"的幻梦中惊醒。 随后的中美经贸会谈带来喘息之机，但政策的钟摆效应远未平息——欧盟对入境小包裹 拟征费用的传闻旋即又起。这清晰地昭示着，不确定性，已是跨境电商必须时刻面对的 新常态。 对于高度依赖政策红利的跨境玩家而言，每一次风向变动，都挤压着本已微薄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that revenue growth slowdown is not necessarily a sign of decline but rather a strategic pivot for companies like Pinduoduo, which is investing in long-term value creation despite short-term profit sacrifices [1][13]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1, Pinduoduo reported revenue of 957 billion RMB, a 10% year-on-year growth, with net profit dropping significantly [2]. - Advertising revenue grew by 14.8% to 487 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations, while commission revenue was approximately 470 billion RMB, showing only a slight increase of 6% [2][4]. - Following the earnings report, Pinduoduo's stock price fell over 20% in pre-market trading, reflecting market concerns over the profit decline [2][4]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Pinduoduo's management is committed to sacrificing short-term performance for long-term investments, as highlighted by Chairman Chen Lei [4]. - The "100 billion subsidy" plan has been upgraded to a "1 trillion support" initiative, focusing on reducing costs for small and medium-sized businesses [7][9]. - The company has increased marketing expenses by nearly 100 billion RMB to 334 billion RMB, aimed at supporting merchants and enhancing user engagement [4][5]. Group 3: Ecosystem Development - The "1 trillion support" strategy aims to enhance the platform's ecosystem by providing substantial resources to merchants, particularly small and medium-sized ones [6][7]. - This initiative is expected to activate the entire ecosystem, allowing a broader range of merchants to benefit from Pinduoduo's growth [7][8]. - Pinduoduo is also focusing on agricultural development, launching initiatives like "Duoduo Good Special Products" to support local agricultural businesses [8][10]. Group 4: Long-term Vision - Pinduoduo's strategy aligns with national goals for high-quality development, particularly in agriculture and rural revitalization [12]. - The company aims to become a foundational infrastructure in the industry, akin to "water, electricity, and coal," by empowering businesses and enhancing the overall ecosystem [12][13]. - The current financial challenges are viewed as necessary costs for building a sustainable growth model and redefining industry competition [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was under pressure due to increased investments and tariff impacts, with total revenue of 957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, which was below market expectations [1][8] - Online marketing service revenue grew to 487 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in GMV and advertising monetization in the domestic market [1][8] - The decline in transaction service revenue, which reached 470 billion yuan with a growth rate of 6%, was attributed to commission reductions and tariff impacts on TEMU's GMV growth [1][8] - The company's gross margin decreased to 57.2%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the full burden of shipping costs in the western regions and a structural decline in high-margin commission revenue [2][9] - Non-GAAP operating profit fell to 183 billion yuan, a decrease of 36% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 19.1% [2][9] - The company launched a 100 billion yuan support plan in April, which may continue to pressure profitability in the near to medium term [3][10] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 4329 billion yuan, 4994 billion yuan, and 5622 billion yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment of 10%, 16%, and 17% respectively [3][16] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period are 841 billion yuan, 1076 billion yuan, and 1259 billion yuan, with adjustments of -35%, -34%, and -32% respectively [3][16] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected at 12x, 9x, and 8x for 2025-2027 [3][16] Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a non-GAAP net profit margin of 18% for the latest quarter, with a significant decline in net profit due to reduced interest income [2][9] - The sales expense ratio reached 34.9%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the company's relative disadvantage in national subsidies compared to other self-operated e-commerce platforms [2][9] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19% for 2025, down from 32.1% in 2023 [4][19]

文 | 太平洋科技 618第一波活动已经结束了。 别家都在做的618，小红书却一直静悄悄。 但最近，小红书在角落里更新了。PConline发现小红书的个人主页新增了一个"友好市集"的Tab，入口 置于个人简介下方，几乎可以等同于一级流量入口。 进入发现，其实就是商城页。 没有百亿补贴、没有秒杀、没有9.9包邮，也不像其他平台主页总得有个大banner打打广告，就连"友好 市集"这名字也起得非常"小红书"。 页面简单到除了顶部导航栏的"订单""购物车""卡券包"之外，就是上下滑动的商品流。 虽然简单，但却是小红书少见地将电商的权重在App里再度提升。 这几年，小红书电商一直缝缝补补，大动作没有，小动作却不断。"克制"的背后，是小红书电商做到现 在却依旧没有太大水花，也难以建立强有力的用户心智——就像PConline看到"友好市集"后的第一反应 是：小红书之前的商城入口在哪来着？ 社区是小红书的基因，是内容电商的土壤，却也成为小红书电商最大的桎梏。 就在5月初，小红书正式和淘宝天猫达成合作，推出"红猫计划"。简单来说，小红书的笔记将可直接挂 链，跳转至淘宝天猫。 一边看似是强化自家电商业务闭环，另一边却是开放生态 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the current state and trends of the e-commerce industry, focusing on consumer demographics, platform dynamics, technological applications, and innovative business models [1] Group 1: Consumer Demographics and Market Performance - Urban and rural residents' consumption capabilities continue to improve, with urban consumption growing by 4.5% and rural consumption by 5.8% [2] - In another consumption metric, urban residents saw an actual growth of 8.3%, while rural residents experienced a growth of 9.2%, indicating a further release of potential in the rural consumption market [2] - Basic consumer needs remain stable, with categories like textiles holding a significant position in the market [2] Group 2: E-commerce Platform Development Dynamics - E-commerce platforms are launching initiatives focused on user experience and merchant support, with Tmall emphasizing the synergy between comprehensive and content e-commerce through technological upgrades [3] - JD.com has introduced the "Hundred Billion" plan and upgraded the "Spring Dawn" plan to support new product cultivation and reduce merchant operating costs [3] - Douyin E-commerce has implemented nine measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency, while Pinduoduo continues to reinforce its low-price advantage [3] - Xiaohongshu is expanding its e-commerce overseas with the "Overseas Navigation Plan," covering markets in the U.S., Hong Kong, and Macau [3] Group 3: Technological and Model Innovations - Technology is a key driver of e-commerce development, with Taotian Group fully upgrading to the AIGX technology system to promote intelligent e-commerce [4] - Instant retail and community group buying models remain popular, with platforms like Meituan and JD.com emphasizing rapid delivery to meet consumer demands [4] - The integration of content and social e-commerce is evident, with influencers driving sales through content marketing on platforms like WeChat and Xiaohongshu [4] Group 4: Cross-border and Local Life Expansion - In cross-border e-commerce, some platforms have increased their overseas warehouse coverage by over 50 countries, enhancing logistics efficiency in regions like Europe and Asia-Pacific [5] - Local life services are diversifying, covering areas such as food delivery, group buying, and accommodation, with platforms like Meituan and Douyin competing for market share through subsidies and activities [5] - Overall, the e-commerce industry is expected to exhibit diversified, intelligent, and globalized development trends by 2025, driven by consumption upgrades, technological innovations, and model iterations [5] Group 5: Market Environment and Consumer Behavior - The macroeconomic environment is improving, with retail sales of consumer goods continuing to rise and consumer willingness stabilizing [12][15] - The focus of competition in the e-commerce sector is shifting towards merchant retention and ecosystem building, with platforms supporting quality brands and optimizing their ecosystems [15] - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing the balance between quality and price, with a growing willingness to pay for products and services that provide emotional value and immersive experiences [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for PDD Holdings, with a target price adjusted to $134.5, reflecting a 21% decrease from the previous target price [1][4]. Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported a revenue growth of 10.2% year-on-year for Q1 2025, reaching RMB 95.7 billion, which was 6% below Bloomberg consensus expectations. This shortfall was primarily due to a 12% miss in transaction service fees, despite a 2% beat in online marketing services and other revenues [1][2]. - Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 45% year-on-year to RMB 16.9 billion, significantly below market expectations by 39%. This decline was attributed to higher-than-expected sales and marketing expenses aimed at matching the intensity of subsidies from other e-commerce platforms [1][3]. - The company has upgraded its platform ecosystem enhancement plan to improve supply quality and diversity, which is expected to impact profitability growth in the short term. The non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down by 25-31% due to these factors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, PDD's online marketing services and other revenues grew by 14.8% year-on-year to RMB 48.7 billion, exceeding market expectations by 2%. However, transaction service revenue only grew by 5.8% year-on-year to RMB 47 billion, missing market expectations by 12% [2][3]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for Q1 2025 contracted to 57.2%, down from 62.3% in Q1 2024, primarily due to the underperformance of commission income, which typically has a higher gross margin [3][12]. Valuation Adjustments - The target price has been adjusted to $134.5 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, which includes a revised valuation of the main app at $83.1, unchanged valuation for Duoduo at $1.9, and Temu at $20.5, along with a net cash valuation of $29.0 [4][14]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down by 12.4% to RMB 434.6 billion, with adjusted net profit forecasts also lowered significantly. The adjusted net profit for 2025 is now expected to be RMB 94.9 billion, reflecting a decrease of 30.6% from previous estimates [13][16].