《关注业绩支撑的白马反弹，科技与通胀 共振——2026/1/19-2026/1/25 汽车周 报》 2026/01/27 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 2026 年 02 月 02 日 重点公司 Q4 业绩强兑现，特斯拉 再次强调 AI 转型 看好 ——2026/1/26-2026/2/1 汽车周报 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 汽车 ⚫ 观点：①特斯拉业绩会强调 AI 应用方向转型（机器人、智能驾驶、Robotaxi 等）， optimus V3 市场预期持续强化，关注机器人产业链估值弹性，恒勃、银轮、隆盛、拓 普、三花等。②部分重点公司业绩预告符合预期，继续建议关注有业绩支撑的白马机 会，尤其是在权重指数中的企业，包括宇通客 ...

已有二手车商跟进免息政策 2026年1月6日，特斯拉推出了限时5年0息或7年超低息金融特惠方案后，在河南经营二手车生意的张家玮（化名）在自己的个人社交平台上更新了一条动 态，视频中他大呼"天塌了"，身后的展厅内摆放着二十余台特斯拉二手车。 "（特斯拉7年超低息政策）带来的最直接影响是价格对比失衡。"许建认为，购车者心里都会算一笔账，购买一辆二手Model Y需要全款支付十几万元，而 购买新车选择低首付方案，只需首付4.59万元。即使二手车价格更低，但金融方案完全改变了消费者的支付体验和感知门槛。 每经记者｜段思瑶 每经编辑｜程鹏 裴健如 许建（化名）的二手车展厅里，一辆2022款特斯拉Model 3的标价在过去20余天内被修改了两次，从最初的14.6万元降至如今的13.7万元。 近期，特斯拉率先推出限时"5年0息""7年超低息"金融特惠方案后，小米汽车、理想汽车、小鹏汽车、长城汽车、吉利银河、岚图等品牌迅速跟进，推出 或进一步强化了长达7年的低息购车金融方案，将新能源车的贷款周期延长了2至3年。 当低首付、长还款周期成为车企撬动销量的杠杆，二手车市场的连锁反应正在发生。作为在北京花乡经营了八年二手车生意的从业 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 02 月 02 日 汽车 徐姝婧 S0820124090004 021-32229888-25517 xushujing@ajzq.com 行业及产业 特斯拉高资本支出引领车企 AI 布局转型 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《2026 年汽车行业策略：智能化+全球化驱动， 把握结构性机会》2026-01-28 《智能汽车产业深度研究：L3 车型产品准入， 智能汽车发展加速》2025-12-31 《L3 准入落地，华为系景气度提升——智能汽 车系列报告（八）》2025-12-30 《首批 L3 级自动驾驶车型获准入——智能汽 车系列报告（七）》2025-12-23 《高阶智驾准入，Robotaxi 商业化提速—— Robotaxi 产业深度报告》2025-12-23 吴迪 S0820525010001 021-32229888-25523 wudi@ajzq.com 爱建证券有限责任公司 ——智能汽车系列报告（九） 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 强于大市 投资要点： 事件：1 月 29 日，特斯拉发布 2025 年度报告。公司短 ...

One South Korean family saw their fortune swell past $800 million on paper — not from an IPO, not from real estate, not from crypto — but from a battery deal with Tesla. Less than two years later, the value of that contract was quietly revised down to just $7,386. Yes, from $2.9 billion to $7,386. A 99.9997% collapse. Behind the swing is L&F Co., a manufacturer of high-nickel cathode materials used in electric vehicle batteries. In February 2023, the company signed a supply agreement with Tesla and its ...

Core Insights - Tesla is transitioning from a traditional car manufacturer to a technology and AI-driven company, focusing on artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomy as key growth areas [1][5] Group 1: Capital Expenditure Plans - Tesla plans to significantly increase capital expenditures, expecting to exceed $20 billion in 2026, up from approximately $8.5 billion last year and surpassing the previous peak of $11.3 billion in 2024 [3][9] - The capital will fund six major facilities, including factories for a refinery, LFP batteries, CyberCab, Semi, a new megafactory, and the Optimus robot, as well as AI compute infrastructure [3][9] - The company aims to expand capacity at existing factories and build the necessary infrastructure to support efficient operations [3] Group 2: Strategic Focus - Tesla is committed to growing its robotaxi fleet and scaling Optimus production, indicating a shift beyond traditional auto manufacturing [4][9] - With nearly $44 billion in cash and equivalents, Tesla has the financial resources to support its ambitious plans [4][9] Group 3: Industry Context - The trend of increasing capital investment in AI and autonomy is not unique to Tesla; other companies, such as Meta Platforms, are also ramping up spending to secure long-term positions in these areas [5][6]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed a significant narrowing of declines, with Dow futures down 0.09%, S&P 500 futures down 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.66% as of the report [1] - European indices performed positively, with Germany's DAX up 0.91%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.64%, France's CAC 40 up 0.60%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.47% [2] - WTI crude oil fell by 4.75% to $62.11 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 4.52% to $66.19 per barrel [3] Strategic Developments - The US government is launching a strategic critical mineral reserve initiative, with President Trump allocating $12 billion to the "Treasury Project" aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese rare earths and other metals. This plan combines $1.67 billion in private capital with $10 billion in loans from the Export-Import Bank of the United States [4] Economic Focus - The upcoming week will focus on the US non-farm payroll report, with additional attention on manufacturing and service sector data, as well as the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. Major tech companies, including Google and Amazon, are set to report earnings [5] Commodity Volatility - Gold prices have experienced unprecedented volatility, surpassing that of Bitcoin, with Wall Street maintaining a bullish long-term outlook for gold, predicting prices could reach $6,000 by the end of 2026 [6] Currency Movements - Following the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the dollar saw its largest increase since May, despite asset managers increasing their bearish positions on the dollar [7] Market Sentiment - Wedbush warns that under Walsh's leadership, liquidity benefits may end, leading to potential turbulence in the US stock market in the coming months [8] Company Earnings - Disney reported Q1 revenue of $26 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, driven by strong performance in its theme park business [9] - Tyson Foods posted Q1 revenue of $14.31 billion, surpassing Wall Street's forecast, aided by robust chicken demand [9] - Tesla announced the upcoming launch of its third-generation humanoid robot, aiming for a production capacity of 1 million units annually by the end of 2026 [10] - Oracle plans to raise $45 to $50 billion to expand its cloud infrastructure, targeting major clients like AMD and Meta [10] - Apple faces challenges as AI companies increasingly dominate the supply chain for critical components, impacting its profit margins [11] - Boeing is under scrutiny from the FAA, which states that the company must take further actions to regain its certification rights [12] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include the final manufacturing PMI for January and the ISM manufacturing PMI, along with speeches from Federal Reserve officials [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes providing actionable and clear investment ideas through independent research, aiming to help members outperform the S&P 500 and avoid significant losses during market volatility [1] Group 1 - The service offers at least one in-depth article per week focused on investment ideas [1] - Members have reportedly achieved better performance than the S&P 500 while mitigating risks associated with extreme market fluctuations in both equity and bond markets [1]

Core Insights - Tesla is phasing out the Model S and Model X, which have become less relevant in the current competitive EV market, to focus on more promising growth areas [1][3][5] Group 1: Model S and Model X Performance - Tesla has stopped reporting Model S and X sales separately since Q4 2023, grouping them with the Cybertruck under "other models," which accounted for only 50,850 vehicles in 2025, representing just over 3% of total sales of 1.64 million units [2][8] - Sales of "other models" fell nearly 40% year-over-year in 2025, while Model 3 and Model Y deliveries remained more stable with a decline of about 7% [3][8] - The Model S and Model X now generate less than 5% of Tesla's total revenues, making continued investment in these models unjustifiable [3][8] Group 2: Strategic Shift and Future Plans - Tesla plans to retool its Fremont plant to support the production of Optimus, its humanoid robot, potentially producing up to one million units per year [4][8] - The company is reallocating resources from low-return luxury models to areas with greater long-term growth potential, emphasizing a shift towards robotics, automation, and AI-driven platforms [5][6] - Tesla's capital expenditure for the year is projected to exceed $20 billion, focusing on humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, and AI chip manufacturing [6][8] Group 3: Comparison with Competitors - Unlike General Motors and Ford, which are adjusting their production strategies to stabilize earnings by focusing on profitable gas-powered vehicles and hybrids, Tesla is exiting low-impact models entirely [10][8] - This strategic exit allows Tesla to free up capital and factory capacity to concentrate on autonomy, robotics, and AI-driven growth [10][8]

审校：汪皓 在财富Plus，网友们对这篇文章发表了许多有深度和思想的观点。一起来看看吧。也欢迎你加入我们，谈谈你的想法。今日其他热议话题： 查看《第二波"TikTok难民"来了》的精彩观点 1月 28日收盘后公布的特斯拉（Tesla）第四季度业绩，以及随后财报电话会上描绘的愿景，不知为何让埃隆·马斯克收获了相当不错的评 价。华尔街分析师普遍称赞这份成绩单"超出预期"，而投资者似乎也没有过度失望，次日开盘股价仅小幅走低。 马斯克有点像一位可以 自编自评的剧作家：即便剧本拙劣，他仍能撰写出花团锦簇的剧评，足以让观众忘记自己刚刚忍受了一场多么混乱的演出。 具体而言， 这家电动汽车厂商的首席执行官承诺大举转向无人驾驶出租车Cybercab和自主机器人，并将带领特斯拉实现"建设一个富足非凡的世 界"的使命，成功转移了公众和资金对财务数据的关注。但如果深入剖析，实际数据的糟糕程度令人震惊。特斯拉公布的GAAP（通用会 计准则）净利润为37.9亿美元，较2023年150亿美元的峰值暴跌75%。究其原因，在过去两年中，电动汽车业务营收下滑16%，与此同 时，整体运营支出却增长了44%。这抵消了电池业务和充电站等服务业务的强劲 ...

Even with the more recent turbulence, shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) have been making up for lost time in the past six months, up close to 40%. ...