国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 1月19日消息，据台媒报道，台积电今年将再在岛内投资建设4座先进封装设施以回应 AI 芯片客户的需求。 这 4 座新厂将是嘉义科学园区先进封装二期的两座和南部科学园区三期的两座，相关决定有望在本周官宣。 注意到，台积电在上周的季度法人说明会上曾表示，先进封装在 2025 年已为企业贡献一成营收，同时未来增速将超过企业平均水平。在支出端， 先进封装与掩膜制造和其它将占到台积电今年整体资本开销的 10~20%。 考虑到台积电的新一波前端先进制程产能将在 2027~2029 年大面积上线，此时追加后端先进封装产能有利于前后端产能协调同步。 ***************END*************** 第二步：在公众号里面回复"加群"，按照提示操作即可。 爆料｜投稿｜合作｜社群 半导体公众号推荐 半导体论坛百万微信群 加群步骤： 第一步：扫描下方二维码，关注国芯网微信公众号。 文章内容整理自网络，如有侵权请联系沟通 投稿 或 商务合作 请 联系 iccountry 有偿新闻爆料 请添加 微信 icco ...

前言 ①全球先进制程扩产意愿强烈，叠加存储扩产周期高景气度，CMP抛光液需求有望显著提升，这两家为国 内CMP业务核心龙头；②半导体用靶材是用于物理气相沉积（PVD）工艺的一种关键材料，一定程度上决 定了半导体先进制程的良率，这两家公司是国产半导体靶材重要生产厂商；③存储的大量扩产是行业内一 个明确且持续的预期和发展趋势，国内这两类半导体设备企业受益产能扩张带来的设备采购需求。 《金牌纪要库》是财联社VIP倾力打造的一款高端会议纪要类产品，结合财联社的媒体资源和行业圈层 优势，为投资者提供全面、深入的市场及行业洞察，以及专业分析和解读。 栏目专注于捕捉投资市场 的最新题材机会，通过一线记者的即时报道、资深编辑的专业整理，以及行业资深专家的深度访谈，为 投资者提供前瞻性、独家性、热门性及专业性的市场分析。 ...

Core Insights - The demand for AI computing power is surging, pushing chip power consumption to its limits, with traditional packaging methods unable to keep up [3][6] - Advanced packaging technologies, particularly the combination of advanced packaging and Silicon Carbide (SiC), are seen as key solutions to these challenges [5][17] Group 1: Industry Trends - AI model training and data center computing power are expected to grow exponentially, with China's intelligent computing scale projected to reach 1037.3 EFLOPS by 2025, increasing by 40% in 2026 [3] - Traditional packaging methods are failing to manage the heat generated by increased power consumption, with silicon interlayers having a thermal conductivity of only 148 W/m·K [3][6] - The global advanced packaging market is predicted to exceed $79 billion by 2030, with 2.5D/3D packaging experiencing a growth rate of 37% [5] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The core upgrade logic of advanced packaging involves breakthroughs in both materials and processes, with SiC emerging as the optimal interlayer material due to its superior thermal conductivity of 490 W/m·K [7][8] - The transition from 2.5D to 3D packaging, utilizing hybrid bonding technology, has reduced interconnect spacing from 20μm to less than 10μm, resulting in a 30% reduction in signal delay [6][7] Group 3: Market Opportunities - Companies are encouraged to focus on four key areas to capitalize on the growth driven by advanced packaging and SiC technologies: SiC materials and equipment, advanced packaging OSAT, critical materials, and hybrid bonding/3D packaging technologies [12][13][14][15][16] - Domestic companies like TianYue Advanced and Sanan Optoelectronics are positioned to benefit from the upcoming production ramp-up of 12-inch SiC substrates [13][17] Group 4: Equipment and Supply Chain - The equipment sector is crucial for mass production, with domestic manufacturers breaking through foreign monopolies in hybrid bonding machines and CMP equipment [11] - The demand for semiconductor packaging equipment is expected to grow significantly, with the market projected to reach 28.27 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.9% [11]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [51]. Core Insights - TSMC plans to significantly increase its capital expenditure to meet the strong demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, with a projected investment of up to $56 billion by 2026, a 36.9% increase from the previous year's $40.9 billion [3][27]. - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing rapid domestic production acceleration, with major companies benefiting from industry growth and market demand [3][27]. - The new materials industry is expected to grow rapidly due to ongoing manufacturing upgrades and increasing demand for high-standard, high-performance materials [3][27]. Market Overview - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 5779.39 points, up 0.98% week-on-week. The semiconductor materials index rose by 8.12% to 10157.68 points, while other sub-indices also showed positive growth [2][8]. - The top five gainers this week included Aladdin (20.24%), Anji Technology (12.69%), and Shanghai Xinyang (12.29%), while the top five losers included Pulit (-17.28%) and Double Star New Materials (-4.22%) [2][23][25]. Recent Industry Highlights - TSMC's capital expenditure increase is part of its strategy to expand production capacity, having invested over $180 billion since 2020 [3][27]. - The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on certain imported semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which may impact the market dynamics [27][28]. - Jinfa Technology has invested in a core supplier for Tesla's robots, which is preparing for an IPO, highlighting the growing interest in high-performance engineering plastics [3][28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The electronic sector has shown a strong performance, with the industry index rising by 3.64% in the week of January 12-16, 2026. The semiconductor segment led the gains with a 5.12% increase, while other electronic components rose by 4.06%, consumer electronics by 1.99%, and optical electronics by 1.13% [4] - TSMC's optimistic guidance and significant capital expenditure of $52-56 billion for 2026 reflect the long-term demand driven by AI [6] - AI hardware demand is accelerating, with over 50 AI eyewear companies showcased at CES 2026, and OpenAI seeking support for its audio device project with a target shipment of 40-50 million units in the first year [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The electronic sector experienced broad gains, particularly in semiconductors, which rose by 5.12%. Notable individual stock performances included AMD, which surged by 14.1%, and TSMC, which increased by 5.80% due to positive capital expenditure guidance [4] Industry Dispatch - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance indicates a robust investment in AI hardware, with significant demand for AI eyewear and audio devices. Meta plans to launch multiple AI eyewear models, while Apple is set to release new products featuring advanced technology [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - DRAM prices are on the rise, with certain DDR4 models increasing by over 12% weekly. AI demand is now estimated to account for 50-60% of the DRAM market. Major companies like SK Hynix and Micron are expanding production to meet this demand [6] Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks include SMIC, Huahong, Tongfu Microelectronics, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on January 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.11%, driven by gains in sectors such as electric equipment, public utilities, and automobiles, while the comprehensive and computer sectors faced declines [1] - The chip technology sector demonstrated strength, with the chip ETF (159995.SZ) increasing by 0.15%, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Haiguang Information (+3.83%), Chipone Technology (+2.53%), and Zhaoyi Innovation (+2.33%) [1] Group 2 - TSMC held a conference on January 15, providing guidance for capital expenditures in 2026, projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a significant increase of up to 36.9% from the previous year's $40.9 billion [3] - The proportion of capital expenditure allocated to advanced packaging, testing, and mask manufacturing has been revised to 10-20%, up from approximately 10% previously [3] - According to Open Source Securities, TSMC's increased capital expenditure is expected to boost expectations for advanced process capacity expansion, with high-end advanced packaging being essential for AI chips, likely leading to significant demand growth [3]

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) and its impact on the global AI computing sector, particularly in relation to semiconductor supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - TSMC expects Q4 2025 revenue to reach between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin guidance of 63% to 65%, exceeding market expectations primarily driven by AI demand [1][3]. - TSMC's capital expenditure (CAPEX) for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30% to 40%, significantly higher than the market's prior expectation of $45 billion to $50 billion [1][4]. - The expansion of TSMC's CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity is expected to alleviate supply constraints for North American chip designers like NVIDIA and Google, with capacity projected to increase to 1.3 to 1.4 million units in 2026 and potentially reach 2.4 million units in 2027 [1][6]. - NVIDIA plans to ship 7.5 million GPUs in 2026, while Google’s TPU shipments may reach between 4 million and 5 million units, supported by the expanded CoWoS capacity [1][7]. Implications for the Domestic Computing Industry - The growth in GPU and TPU shipments is anticipated to positively impact the domestic computing supply chain, with a strong investment opportunity in the domestic computing sector over the next one to two years [1][8]. - The release of new CoWoS capacity in the second half of 2026 is expected to sustain demand in the overall computing sector, leading to significant performance improvements for related companies [1][8]. Current Investment Focus - Investment priorities are concentrated in three main areas: optical modules, PCB (Printed Circuit Board), and liquid cooling technologies [1][9]. - For optical modules, demand is projected to rise to 55 million units of 800G and 32 million units of 1.6T in 2026, reflecting increased growth potential despite supply constraints [1][9]. - Recommended companies in the optical module sector include Eastcom, Newray, and Tianfu Communication [1][10]. - In the PCB sector, companies like Shenghong Technology and Jingwang Electronics are highlighted as key recommendations [1][10]. - The liquid cooling sector is identified as having strong growth potential, with core companies including Invec and others [1][10]. Notable Domestic Computing Chain Companies - The domestic computing chain is expected to benefit from global AI trends, with recommended companies including Canxin Technology, Chipone, and leading firms like Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Huahong Technology [1][11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Company: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) Key Points - **Revenue Growth and Profitability** TSMC expects revenue growth of over 30% in 2026, despite the negative impact on gross margin from ramping up 2nm process technology. The gross margin is projected to remain between 62% and 65% due to price increases and improved capacity utilization [1][4]. - **Capital Expenditure Plans** TSMC plans to allocate $52 billion to $56 billion for capital expenditures in 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of over 32%. This expenditure will primarily focus on advanced processes (70%-80%) and advanced packaging (10%-20%) [1][6]. - **Business Structure Transformation** The business structure is shifting towards high-performance computing (HPC), which is expected to account for approximately 55% of revenue by Q4 2025. The revenue share from advanced processes (3nm, 5nm, 7nm) has reached a historical high of 77% [1][5]. - **AI Business Outlook** TSMC anticipates that AI business growth will exceed 50% in the coming years, driven by strong demand and collaboration with clients like NVIDIA and AMD. The company believes that the current AI demand is robust and not a bubble [1][7]. - **Emerging Market Opportunities** Applications like ChatGPT are creating new demand in advertising and other sectors, contributing to future market growth [1][8]. Company: Jiangfeng Electronics Key Points - **Global Market Expansion** Jiangfeng Electronics is expanding its ultra-pure target material business globally, targeting major clients like SK Hynix and Samsung. The company has seen significant growth, exceeding 50% since 2019, and is focusing on developing electrostatic chuck projects [1][9]. - **Market Size Projections** The global market for electrostatic chucks is expected to reach approximately $2.4 billion by 2030, with Jiangfeng addressing material bottlenecks through its Northwest Industrialization Project [1][9]. Company: Guangli Technology Key Points - **Expansion into Semiconductor Equipment** Guangli Technology is transitioning from IoT production monitoring devices to semiconductor packaging equipment, including dicing saws and laser dicing machines. The company is making progress in customer acquisition and aims to compete with Japanese firm DISCO [1][10]. - **Breakthroughs in Core Components** Domestic companies have made significant breakthroughs in semiconductor equipment and core components, particularly in air spindles and blades, demonstrating rapid localization progress [1][11]. Industry Dynamics Key Points - **Price Increases in Semiconductor Sector** Recent price increases have been observed among packaging companies like ASE, driven by cost pressures and surging AI demand. For instance, MICC's leading company, Yageo, announced a price increase of about 10% [1][12]. - **Storage Industry Developments** The storage sector is gaining attention, with companies like Hefei Changxin and Changchun making progress in their IPOs. AI servers are driving increased demand for storage, with Micron's acquisition leading to a 23% increase in DRAM prices in Q1 2026 [1][14]. - **Future Predictions for Semiconductor Industry** The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory driven by AI, with significant developments in domestic production capabilities across design, manufacturing, and packaging sectors [1][15]. PCB Sector Insights Key Points - **Market Performance** The PCB sector is viewed positively, with companies like Shenghong Technology and Huitian Technology expected to experience short-term performance fluctuations. However, risks related to technology development and demand may impact future performance [1][16].

台积电 20260118 摘要 台积电在 2026 年第一季度的毛利率达到了 62.3%，创下历史新高。主要驱动 因素包括产能利用率饱满以及两三纳米制程的成功定价。此外，台积电给出的 全年收入指引为 30%，资本开支预计在 5,520 亿到 560 亿美金之间，这也超 出了市场预期。 台积电对 AI 需求及其未来发展有何看法？ 台积电管理层明确表示，AI 需求是真实存在的，并且硅片供应仍然是瓶颈。公 司对 AI 产业链的投资非常重视，并认为这一领域在 2026 年的发展将会非常重 要。 2026 年半导体板块中，存储板块（如 Hynix、Micron）上升空间最大， 其次是设备股（如 ASML）。设计公司（如英伟达、博通）面临成本压 力。中国市场关注中芯国际、华虹半导体及相关设备制造商。 台积电先进封装技术增长迅速，未来五年增速将显著高于集团平均水平 （25%），主要业务包括 Corus、Infineon 以及苹果 Info 产品等 3D stacking 技术。 台积电为何计划大规模增加资本开支？ 台积电计划将资本开支增加至 5,520 亿到 560 亿美金，较去年增长接近 30%。这一决定主要是为了满足不 ...

电子掘金 - 重归硬科技：国产算力、存储、封测和晶圆设 备 20260118 摘要 存储行业面临结构性产能转移，头部厂商转向高价值和 AI 企业级产品， 消费类 NAND 价格持续上涨。技术迭代和保守的资本开支计划加剧供需 失衡，支撑产品价格上涨。关注中国大陆存储厂商扩产对半导体设备的 提振作用。 AI 数据中心对 NAND 需求迅猛增长，预计 2026 年 AI 服务器企业级 NAND 需求同比增速超 50%，占全球 NAND 需求比例提升至 20%。AI 服务器厂商对价格敏感度低，英伟达 ICMS 架构提升单机柜容量，为行 业带来增长空间。 2D NAND 产能正从国际原厂向台系及中国大陆厂商转移。三星退出 MLC 产品供应，SK 海力士和美光暂无扩产计划，导致市场供需失衡。 大厂退出 SLC NAND 市场，下游汽车电子、网络通信等领域需求转移至 中国台湾及大陆厂商。 三星退出 2D NAND 供应加剧短缺，国内厂商从 SLC NAND 向 MLC 迁 移，台湾厂商在凸镜领域表现良好。晶圆产能分配影响 Nor Flash 市场， 预计价格将进一步上涨，未来 1-2 个季度内产能紧缺和价格上行弹性仍 然乐 ...