12月31日，美股三大指数近平开，道指涨0.05%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.58%，小鹏汽车低开逾4%，现跌幅扩大至逾5%；理想汽车低开逾3%，现跌超4%。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 | | F9 益前盘后 赣加 九转 画线 工具 Φ (2) > | | 小鹏汽车 | | XPEV | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 22.480 | XPEV[小鹏汽车] 09:45 价 20.115 涨跌 -1.165(-5.47%) 均价 20.244 成交量 2.4万 成交金额 49万 | 2025/12/31 Win.d人气榜 第15名 | C C 401 = | 20.115 | | -1.165 -5.47% | | | | | | NYSE USD 9:45:44 | | ADR Z Q F | | 22.280 | | | 4.70% | 港(9868) | 79.350(-0.94%) H/U:+1.35% | | | | | | | 盘前价 | 20.430 涨幅ª* | -3.99% | | 22 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights a decline in the stock prices of electric vehicle (EV) companies, with Tesla continuing its downward trend this week [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tesla (TSLA.US) experienced a slight decline, continuing its downward trend for the week [1] - NIO (NIO.US) saw a drop of over 5.5% [1] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) fell by more than 4.7% [1] - Li Auto (LI.US) decreased by over 3.8% [1] - Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) declined by more than 1.4% [1] - Lucid Group (LCID.US) experienced a decrease of 0.64% [1]

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 12 31 年 月 日 海外市场 2026 年五大猜想：入口争夺大年 猜想一：模型能力有望持续突破。展望未来，我们认为 AI 模型能力仍处于持续进 化通道，2026 年有望在加强多模态推理与生成能力、提升超长上下文处理能力及 降低模型幻觉率等维度上取得突破。在应用场景方面，这有望促进内容产业工业 化、世界模型演进，也有望加速智能体迭代、及支撑 AI 向更专业的行业级与科研 级应用延伸。 猜想二：AI 应用进入流量入口争夺大年。1）在 C 端入口的争夺上，头部互联网 厂商如阿里巴巴、字节跳动、腾讯等凭借领先的模型能力与丰富的业务生态，具备 先发优势。2）B 端应用方面，AI Coding、AI 营销、AI4S 有望成为率先突围的领 域。我们预计 2026 年，C 端入口的争夺会演化为软硬结合与生态丰富度的竞争， 而 B 端应用的渗透率会随着模型多模态、上下文处理、幻觉率优化等能力的提升 而持续加速。 猜想三：端侧智能硬件迎来安卓时刻。展望 2026，我们认为，端侧硬件中，1）手 机和 PC 市场或因存储成本上涨而带来终端销量承压，但折叠机等创新点仍 ...

Group 1 - U.S. stock futures are mostly lower, with Dow futures down approximately 0.01% [1] - Cybin Inc launched a $100 million at-the-market equity program with Cantor Fitzgerald, resulting in a 6.6% drop in shares to $8.00 in pre-market trading [1] Group 2 - Jefferson Capital Inc shares decreased by 7.2% to $21.08 in pre-market trading [2] - SMX PLC shares fell 6.8% to $47.95 after a significant decline of 39% on Tuesday [2] - Corcept Therapeutics Inc shares declined by 5.5% to $66.35 following a 12% drop on Tuesday [2] - NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Inc shares fell 4.8% to $5.90 in pre-market trading [2] - Americas Gold and Silver Corporation shares decreased by 4.7% to $5.09 [2] - Xpeng Inc – ADR shares slipped 4.5% to $20.32 after a 4% increase on Tuesday [2] - B&G Foods Inc shares fell 3.6% to $4.35 in pre-market trading [2] - Hecla Mining Co shares decreased by 3.3% to $18.85 in pre-market trading [2]

Group 1 - XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) experienced a 3.80% increase in stock price, closing at $21.28 as investors anticipated the vehicle delivery report for December and Q4 2025 [1] - The company aims to deliver between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3% [2] - Q4 revenues are projected to be between 21.5 billion yuan and 23 billion yuan, indicating an implied growth of 33.5% to 42.8% compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2 - XPeng is set to launch an extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) variant of the G7 series in Q1 2026, which will feature a combined range of 1,704 kilometers, the longest for an SUV globally [3] - The G7 EREV will support fast charging, allowing for 314 kilometers of range to be recharged in just 12 minutes, utilizing an 800V platform and a 5C fast-charging battery [4]

Core Viewpoint - The supply of power batteries has eased by the end of 2025, but the shortage of energy storage batteries remains severe, leading to increased prices across the lithium battery supply chain [1][3][4]. Group 1: Battery Supply and Demand - Several car manufacturers have experienced delivery delays due to battery supply shortages, particularly affecting models like Li Auto's i6 and NIO's new ES8 [3][15]. - Reports indicate that from September to November 2025, some car companies sent personnel to battery manufacturers to secure battery supplies, highlighting the competitive nature of the market [3][17]. - The demand for power batteries surged during the traditional peak season, exacerbated by the need for manufacturers to stock up before year-end sales and the upcoming tax changes in 2026 [4][18]. Group 2: Energy Storage Battery Market - The energy storage battery market is facing a more severe shortage compared to power batteries, with many companies operating at full capacity and requiring prepayments for orders [5][19]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has set a target for new energy storage installations to reach 180 million kilowatts by 2027, which is expected to drive significant investment [5][19]. - Predictions indicate that global battery demand will exceed 2.5 TWh in 2026, with energy storage demand expected to grow by over 60% year-on-year [5][19]. Group 3: Price Trends in the Lithium Battery Supply Chain - The prices of lithium carbonate have surged, with futures exceeding 120,000 yuan per ton, marking a more than 100% increase from July's lows [6][22]. - The entire lithium battery supply chain is experiencing price increases, including key components like anode and cathode materials, separators, and copper foil [6][22]. - Companies are adjusting their pricing strategies in response to rising raw material costs, with some battery manufacturers announcing price hikes for their products [6][23]. Group 4: Company Performance and Strategic Partnerships - CATL's energy storage battery system revenue reached 28.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for nearly 16% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 25.52% [6][21]. - Major automotive companies are increasingly focusing on energy storage as a growth area, with BYD ranking third globally in energy storage system shipments [6][21]. - Strategic partnerships have been established between several car manufacturers and CATL, with agreements lasting up to 10 years to ensure stable supply chains [4][18].

Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has increased by 1% [1] - Baidu Group has seen a rise of nearly 6% [1] - NIO has surged over 5% [1] - XPeng Motors and WeRide have both increased by over 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of XPeng Motors, He Xiaopeng, believes that fully autonomous vehicles will become as ubiquitous as the iPhone within the next three years, rendering previous smart devices obsolete [1][3]. Group 1: Autonomous Driving Levels - He Xiaopeng stated that by 2026, next-generation fully autonomous driving will emerge in China and the U.S., skipping the L3 stage and moving directly from L2 to L4 [2][5]. - The current advancements in Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 14.2 indicate that L4 autonomous driving is "within reach" [3]. - The distinction between L2 and fully autonomous driving is based on four key differences: capability, scenarios, safety, and efficiency [3]. Group 2: XPeng's Technological Progress - XPeng's VLA (Vehicle Learning Architecture) is undergoing rapid self-evolution, with advancements perceived to be occurring at an accelerated pace [4]. - The upcoming release of XPeng's VLA 2.0 is anticipated to enhance its autonomous driving capabilities [4]. - XPeng aims to compete with Tesla's full version of the system in the European market by the end of 2026 [5]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Companies like Tesla, XPeng, and Horizon believe that AI large model technology can directly facilitate the transition from L2 to L4 autonomous driving [5]. - Other companies prefer a gradual approach, using L3 as a transitional stage before reaching L4 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on globalization, intelligence, and high-end market opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified competition in the domestic market while witnessing significant growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) exports [2][3]. - The overall vehicle sales are projected to remain stable in 2026, with a notable increase in NEV sales driven by favorable policies and consumer demand [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end vehicles and intelligent driving technologies as key growth areas for automotive companies [5][14]. Summary by Sections 1. 2025 Review: Intensified Domestic Competition, High Growth in NEV Exports - Total vehicle sales in China for January to November 2025 reached 20.45 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% in retail and 11.2% in wholesale [2]. - Domestic sales showed slight growth, heavily influenced by policy changes, while exports surged, particularly in the NEV segment, which saw a 19% increase year-on-year [2][19]. - The NEV penetration rate reached 40.8% in exports, with significant contributions from plug-in hybrid vehicles [19]. 2. 2026 Outlook: Stability Expected, Acceleration in Globalization and Intelligence - Retail sales of passenger vehicles are expected to reach 22.03 million units in 2026, with NEVs projected to grow by 12% year-on-year [3][4]. - The high-end vehicle segment is anticipated to perform better due to a shift in consumer preferences and the increasing market share of domestic brands [4]. - NEV exports are expected to reach 6.73 million units, with a 34% increase in NEV exports alone, driven by improved product quality and market maturity [4]. 3. Investment Strategy: Favorable Opportunities in Globalization, Intelligence, and High-End Markets - The report highlights the potential for automotive companies that excel in international markets, high-end product offerings, and advanced intelligent driving technologies [5][13]. - Companies like BYD, Geely, and Li Auto are identified as key players likely to benefit from these trends due to their strong export capabilities and innovative products [5][13]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of the AI driving sector, predicting that leading companies will leverage their technological advancements to gain competitive advantages [14][15].

Core Insights - The Chinese intelligent driving industry is experiencing both expansion and contraction, with rapid adoption of assisted driving features in mass-produced vehicles, while financing for some companies is slowing down, leading to exits from mainstream competition [1][2] - The competition in the intelligent driving sector has shifted towards large-scale delivery, cost efficiency, and long-term service capabilities, with opportunities concentrating on a few companies that can prove their value [2][4] - The industry is entering a mature phase, as evidenced by significant orders from conservative automakers like Toyota, indicating a shift from vague to definite market demand [5][6] Industry Dynamics - The competition is no longer about validating technology but about scaling delivery and maintaining cost efficiency, with survival becoming a pressing issue for mid-tier companies [2][4] - The leading companies in the assisted driving sector include Horizon, ZhiYu, Huawei, and Momenta, which have successfully transitioned from technology validation to large-scale delivery [4][5] - The gap between leading companies and newcomers is estimated to be 3 to 5 years, primarily due to data accumulation advantages and algorithm iteration capabilities [4][5] Market Trends - The assisted driving market is seeing a push towards lower-cost models, with major players like Horizon and Momenta targeting vehicles priced under 100,000 yuan, which account for nearly half of China's passenger car sales [8][9] - The competition is intensifying around cost control, as companies strive to keep the cost of assisted driving features within 3% to 5% of the vehicle's price to ensure market acceptance [9][10] - The trend towards self-developed chips is debated, with some companies believing it can lead to differentiation and lower system costs, while others see it as economically challenging [10][11] Competitive Landscape - The intelligent driving sector is unlikely to see a "winner-takes-all" scenario until the L4 or L5 stages of automation, as the current market remains fragmented with multiple strong players [8][11] - Companies that can continuously iterate, validate their solutions through mass production, and respond to market demands will be the ones to secure future growth [11] - The supply chain strategies of automakers suggest that the assisted driving market will not favor a single dominant player, as diverse needs for customization and differentiation persist [7][8]