1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The polypropylene market continues to oscillate weakly due to significant supply - demand pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions There is no specific content about recent market main contradictions in the provided text. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply - Demand Situation - **Supply** - **Production**: This week's production decreased slightly to 78.67 million tons with new maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase to around 81 million tons [6]. - **Maintenance Loss**: This week, the maintenance loss was 19.19 million tons, an increase of 1.45 million tons compared to last week. In the next two weeks, it is expected to be 17.08 million tons and 16.08 million tons respectively [6]. - **Import and Export**: The weekly average import and export volumes remained unchanged at 6.12 million tons and 5.76 million tons respectively. In July, exports were 26.36 million tons and imports were 28.24 million tons, in line with expectations [6]. - **Demand** - **Apparent Demand**: This week, the apparent demand was 78.72 million tons, an increase of 3.59 million tons compared to last week. Next week, it is expected to be around 83 million tons according to seasonality [6]. - **Inventory** - **Total Inventory**: This week, there was a slight de - stocking, with the total inventory increasing from 83.34 million tons to 83.66 million tons. Next week, it is expected to continue to de - stock slightly [6]. - **Upstream Inventory**: The upstream inventory of "Two - Oil", coal - chemical, PDH, and refineries all showed a slight de - stocking trend, indicating a slight improvement in domestic apparent demand [6]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: The mid - stream port inventory and trader inventory also showed a slight de - stocking trend [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The overall basis showed an oscillating trend, with limited basis opportunities. The East China basis decreased from - 160 to - 180, the North China basis increased from - 120 to - 100, and the South China basis increased from - 220 to - 210 [9]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spread oscillated. The 1 - 5 spread decreased from - 15 to - 23, the 5 - 9 spread increased from 127 to 149, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 112 to - 126 [9]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread was relatively stable. The fiber - to - drawn spread increased from 250 to 270, the copolymer - to - drawn spread remained at 250, and the injection - to - drawn spread remained at 50 [9]. - **Disk Spread**: The PP - 3MA spread showed a strengthening trend. The PP - 3MA 01 contract increased from - 284 to - 224, the 05 contract increased from - 254 to - 219, and the 09 contract increased from 69 to 97. The LL - PP spread showed an oscillating and weakening trend [9]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Upstream**: Upstream maintenance is gradually entering the peak period, but the overall supply remains relatively sufficient. The upstream's main strategy is to actively sell goods [11]. - **Mid - stream**: The mid - stream's shipment situation has slightly worsened. After the market decline, some futures - cash arbitrageurs have a chance to sell goods [11]. - **Downstream**: The downstream's replenishment willingness has weakened. After large - scale replenishment earlier, they are currently digesting inventory and have a low willingness to stock up before the festival [11]. - **Strategy** - **Cross - variety**: There are currently no suitable cross - variety strategies [11]. - **Single - side**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - **Options**: A strategy of selling call options is recommended [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are still weak in the short - term. Despite the implementation of positive factors such as the shutdown of Rongxin Phase I methanol plant in the inland and the startup of Xingxing MTO plant at the port, the price remains weak due to high inventory. [3][85] - There is an expectation of improvement in methanol fundamentals on a month - on - month basis, but the supply pressure is still large. Whether the inventory can be effectively reduced after the startup of downstream MTO plants is a key point. [3][85] - In the long run, it may still be necessary to wait for a buying opportunity. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation mindset, close previous short positions, and wait for lower prices or clear driving factors for long positions. [3][85] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. The basis quote on Friday was around 01 - 95 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for mid - October paper goods was 01 - 60 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2 Basis and Spread - **Methanol Basis**: The basis quotes of methanol oscillated this week. The basis quote for paper goods in late October was around 01 - 60 yuan/ton. The inland basis of methanol oscillated, and the prices in the inland and northwest markets oscillated this week. [8][16][32] - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol weakened in an oscillatory manner. [41] - **Near - far Month Spread**: It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the spread. [49] - **PP - 3MA Spread**: The PP - 3MA spread rebounded in an oscillatory manner this week. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting PP and going long on MA in the later stage. [57] 3.3 Industrial Chain Profit - **Methanol Production**: Many new methanol plants were under maintenance, and the methanol operating rate declined slightly. However, many maintenance plants resumed production, and methanol production began to increase. [62][65] - **Methanol Downstream**: The operating rate of dimethyl ether oscillated, the operating rate of formaldehyde rebounded in an oscillatory manner, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest oscillated at a high level. [72] - **MTO**: The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated this week, and MTO profits continued to recover. [75] 3.4 Market Expectation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Adopt a weak - oscillation mindset, close previous short positions. Wait for lower prices or clear driving factors for long positions. [4][86] - **Hedging Strategy**: Wait and see. [5][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern in the pig market remains supply - strong and demand - weak, and the spot price lacks a basis for a significant rebound. It is expected that the spot price will mainly fluctuate at a low level. The slowdown in the market supply rhythm has limited impact on price improvement. Although the decline in the spot price has narrowed, September is still a stage with relatively large theoretical出栏 pressure. The near - month futures contracts should be operated with a short - selling strategy on rallies [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - **Price Indicators**: The national average price of standard pigs this week was 13.26 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 yuan/kg and a decline of 3.35%. The average price of standard pigs in different regions showed differentiation, with the lowest in Guangxi at 12.43 yuan/kg. The price of piglets continued to decline rapidly, with the national average price falling below 300 yuan/head. The price of sows decreased slightly, and the price of white - striped pigs also declined, with a deeper decline than that of live pigs, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pigs narrowed [4]. - **Capacity Indicators**: The official inventory of reproductive sows in July was 40420,000 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 heads. The indicators of the average number of healthy piglets per litter and the fattening survival rate remained stable. The inventory of commercial pigs continued to increase, and the planned monthly出栏 volume of major institutions in September showed an upward trend. The theoretical出栏 volume from September to December is expected to increase month - by - month, indicating a relatively large supply pressure [4]. - **Demand Indicators**: The sample slaughter volume continued to increase, and the slaughter start - up rate rose, indicating sufficient market supply. The demand improvement in September was uneven, and attention should be paid to the impact of the pre - holiday stocking demand at the end of the month on the consumer market [5]. - **Cost and Profit Indicators**: The continuous decline in the spot price led to a reduction in the profits of the breeding end, especially the mode of purchasing piglets was in deep losses. The ratio of pig price to grain price was below 6 for two consecutive weeks, and there were high calls for the government to purchase and store pigs to support the price. The Ministry of Commerce's anti - dumping measures against imported pork from the EU had a relatively large impact on the import market, but it was difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - **Futures Market Indicators**: The spot price continued to decline, the near - month futures contracts followed the spot price downwards, and the valuation of the far - month contracts was re - structured [5]. 3.2 Market Price Trends - The report presents the historical price trends of standard pigs, white - striped pigs, piglets, and sows from 2022 to 2025 through charts, showing the price fluctuations in different years and months [9]. 3.3 Pig Market Balance Sheet - From March to May, the supply - demand gap was the same as the previous year; from June to August, the supply - demand gap widened rapidly and was higher than the previous year [13]. 3.4 Capacity and Supply Data - **Sow Inventory**: The official inventory of reproductive sows and the sample inventory data of Steel Union showed a slight decline. The total elimination volume of reproductive sows and the elimination volume of different subjects were also presented, and the birth number, sales volume of piglets, and the sales volume of piglet feed and fattening feed were also included [16][22]. - **Litter Efficiency**: The report shows the historical data of breeding farrowing rate, average number of healthy piglets per litter, fattening survival rate, and survival rate of piglets from 2020 to 2025. The PSY of 16 listed pig - raising enterprises has been increasing year by year, which is an important reason for the continuous over - expectation of piglet supply [32][34]. - **Commercial Pig Inventory and出栏**: The inventory of commercial pigs continued to increase, and the planned出栏 volume of major institutions in September showed an upward trend. The report also presented the inventory structure of different weights,出栏 weight, and price differences between standard and fat pigs [4][36]. 3.5 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand - **Slaughter Situation**: The fresh - selling rate, daily slaughter volume, capacity utilization rate, and start - up rate of slaughter enterprises from 2021 to 2025 were presented. In July 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. From January to July 2025, the slaughter volume was 215.21 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 16.6% [57][58]. - **Market Supply**: The report shows the historical data of the wholesale volume of white - striped pigs in Xinfadi Market, the arrival volume of white - striped pigs in Shanghai Western Suburb Market and Nanhuanqiao Market, and the price trends of beef, mutton, chicken, and fish from 2021 to 2025 [59][68]. 3.6 Breeding Costs and Industrial Profits - The report presents the historical trends of profits from purchasing piglets and self - breeding and self - raising, the price of fattening feed, the ratio of pig price to grain price, and the current and expected breeding costs of different breeding modes from 2021 to 2025 [72][80]. 3.7 Futures Market Situation - **Futures Contract Trends**: The report shows the price trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 to 2026 [94]. - **Basis Trends**: The basis trends of different futures contracts from 2023 to 2026 were presented [104]. - **Contract Spread Trends**: The spread trends between different futures contracts from 2022 to 2026 were presented [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the PVC industry, this week's production volume slightly increased, but the actual volume was less than expected. Next week, production is expected to decrease due to more device overhauls. The apparent demand this week was higher than expected, and it is expected to remain stable next week. The inventory showed a mixed trend, with the old - sample inventory decreasing and the new - sample inventory increasing. The overall comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry was in a relatively strong state but is expected to weaken later. The upstream is mainly focused on stable production, the downstream demand is weak, and the export order volume improved slightly this week [6][9][11]. - For the caustic soda industry, this week's production volume decreased slightly, but it remained at a high level and is expected to continue to increase. The apparent demand was in line with expectations and is expected to remain stable next week. The national inventory decreased slightly and may continue to decline. The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry in Shandong showed a mixed trend, with the profit of external - sales liquid - chlorine devices improving and the comprehensive profit of PVC - supporting enterprises weakening [112][115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Production - This week's total PVC production was 47.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons. The ethylene - based production was 13.95 million tons, an increase of 0.55 million tons, and the calcium - carbide - based production was 33.93 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 44.87 million tons, mainly due to more device overhauls [6]. 3.1.2 Import and Export - The weekly average import volume remained stable at 1.50 million tons, and the weekly average export volume was 5.75 million tons. The export order volume increased slightly this week, and the export volume in July was 33.06 million tons, 10% higher than the previous forecast [6]. 3.1.3 Apparent Demand - This week's apparent demand was 44.35 million tons, higher than the expected 42.53 million tons. The expected apparent demand for next week is 42.53 million tons. The domestic apparent demand growth rate in September is expected to be - 2%, but the actual growth rate may be lower [6]. 3.1.4 Inventory - The total inventory this week was 84.16 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons from last week. The old - sample inventory decreased by 0.72 million tons, while the new - sample inventory of middle - stream traders increased by 1.62 million tons, higher than the old - sample increase of 1.76 million tons. The actual total inventory still increased [6][9]. 3.1.5 Price and Basis - The spot price of PVC showed a weakening trend. The basis of PVC showed a strengthening trend, and the inter - month spread was volatile [11][24][25]. 3.1.6 Profit - The production profit of calcium carbide in Shaanxi remained stable at - 492 yuan/ton, while the production profit of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia increased from - 40 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali slightly expanded, but it is expected to weaken later. The profit of various production methods of PVC showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [11]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Production - This week's total caustic soda production was 82.11 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.85 million tons. Next week, the production is expected to be 82.54 million tons and continue to increase [112]. 3.2.2 Import and Export - The weekly average import volume was 0.02 million tons, and the weekly average export volume was 6.52 million tons. The export volume in July was 29.1 million tons, and the export volume is estimated to be around 653,000 tons based on previous years' data [112]. 3.2.3 Apparent Demand - This week's apparent demand was around 77.09 million tons, and next week it is expected to be around 77.53 million tons based on previous years' data [112]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The total inventory (in 100% equivalent) this week was 20.05 million tons, a decrease of 1.48 million tons from last week. The liquid - caustic soda inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.10 million tons, and the flake - caustic soda inventory and the inventory of large alumina plants showed little change [112]. 3.2.5 Price and Basis - The spot price of caustic soda remained stable. The basis of caustic soda showed a strengthening trend, and the inter - month spread was volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [115][126][127]. 3.2.6 Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong showed a mixed trend. The profit of external - sales liquid - chlorine devices improved, and the comprehensive profit of PVC - supporting enterprises weakened. The cost of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Financial**: Consider buying A - share index futures on dips and bonds on dips. For bonds, a steepening strategy can be considered at the start [8][9] - **Black Metals**: Steel is expected to remain in a volatile range, and it is recommended to wait and see. Hold a small - short position in iron ore. Double - coking prices may continue to decline from high - level oscillations in the short term. For ferroalloys, go long on the silicon - iron 10 - contract on dips and short the manganese - silicon on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, maintain a short - on - rallies strategy, and for glass, wait and see [14][15][16] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For aluminum, buy on dips; for alumina, short on rallies. Zinc prices are expected to decline after the inventory inflection point. For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a range. For polysilicon, be cautious due to policy - driven fluctuations [20][21][22] - **Agricultural Products**: For cotton, short on rallies; for sugar, pay attention to the spread between domestic and international sugar prices and consider short - covering. For eggs, wait and see for high - level shorting opportunities. For apples, buy on dips. For corn, short the 01 - contract on rallies. For dates, short on rallies. For live pigs, wait and see in the short term and consider going long on the 01 - contract in the medium - to - long term [24][27][29] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Consider shorting crude oil on rallies. Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil. For plastics, expect weak oscillations. For rubber, pay attention to supply, demand, and policy news. For methanol, use an oscillatory trading approach. For caustic soda, use an oscillatory trading approach. For asphalt, expect a short - term trading range between 3350 - 3480. For the polyester industry chain, the market remains weak. For liquefied petroleum gas, maintain a long - term bearish view. For pulp, observe port de - stocking and spot transactions. For urea, follow spot prices for futures operations. For synthetic rubber, wait and see [34][35][37] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively, and believed that the global economy was maintaining a steady growth trend in the second half of this year [6] 3.2 Macro - Financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - A - shares rose sharply with heavy volume, and over 4200 stocks increased. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65% to 3875.31 points, the ChiNext Index rose 5.15% to regain 3000 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 5.32%. The market turnover expanded to 2.46 trillion yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on trend trading [8] 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Consider buying bonds on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing, and start with a steepening strategy. The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, and the capital interest rate has slightly declined. The stock market is strong today, putting pressure on the bond market. The weak foreign trade data may boost future monetary easing [9] 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has limited impact on steel supply and market. The base - spread positive - arbitrage closing may suppress spot prices, and the peak season may not be prosperous due to limited real demand. Supply is expected to remain strong, and raw material prices are oscillating at high levels. Steel is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see; hold a small - short position in iron ore [13][14] 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Double - coking prices may continue to decline from high - level oscillations in the short term. Supply may gradually recover after the parade, but the "anti - involution" expectation has re - emerged. The supply side may face restrictions in the medium term, and demand may peak and decline [15] 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The mainstream market expects the price of Hebei Iron and Steel's current tender to increase by 50 - 100 yuan/ton compared to the inquiry price. The supply - demand imbalance of manganese - silicon is more severe than that of silicon - iron, and the spread between the two may widen. Go long on the silicon - iron 10 - contract on dips and short the manganese - silicon on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [16] 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, short on rallies; for glass, wait and see. Soda ash production is recovering, and inventory is decreasing. Glass inventory is decreasing, but the supply may increase slightly in the future [17][18] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, buy on dips due to strong Fed rate - cut expectations and improving consumption in the peak season. For alumina, short on rallies due to high supply and increasing inventory [20] 3.4.2 Zinc - Zinc social inventory is increasing, and the inventory inflection point has arrived. Rising processing fees and increased supply during the off - season are expected to cause zinc prices to decline [20] 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The price is supported by increased de - stocking, but the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo may put pressure on the price [20] 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - It is expected to oscillate within a range. The resumption of production of leading factories in Xinjiang is the core contradiction in supply and demand [21] 3.4.5 Polysilicon - Policy progress dominates the price fluctuations. There is a contradiction between strong policy expectations and over - supply in the fundamentals [22] 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Keep a short - on - rallies strategy due to complex supply - demand games, increasing supply, and weak demand [24] 3.5.2 Sugar - The sugar price fundamentals are bearish, but it rebounds due to technical factors. Pay close attention to the spread between domestic and international sugar prices [27] 3.5.3 Eggs - The supply is high, and the post - Mid - Autumn Festival outlook is weak. However, the current peak - season spot is strong, and there is a de - capacity expectation. Wait and see for high - level shorting opportunities [29] 3.5.4 Apples - Buy on dips. The new - season opening price is expected to be high, and the price of early - maturing apples and old - season apples will affect the new - season Fuji opening price [30] 3.5.5 Corn - Short the 01 - contract on rallies. The domestic corn price is diverging, and the new - season supply and demand situation needs attention [31] 3.5.6 Dates - Short on rallies. The market trading is light, and the rain in the production area may affect the quality [33] 3.5.7 Live Pigs - Wait and see in the short term and consider going long on the 01 - contract in the medium - to - long term. The short - term supply is strong and demand is weak, but the end - of - month consumption may improve [33] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Consider shorting on rallies. EIA crude oil inventory increased unexpectedly, and the supply is expected to exceed demand in the long term [34] 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Follow the crude oil price. The price may decline due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [35] 3.6.3 Plastics - Expect weak oscillations. The supply is high, and the demand is weak, but market rumors may boost sentiment [37] 3.6.4 Rubber - Pay attention to supply, demand, and policy news. The supply is recovering, but the downstream demand may be affected by tariffs [38] 3.6.5 Methanol - Use an oscillatory trading approach. The port inventory is increasing, but market rumors may affect supply [39] 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - Use an oscillatory trading approach. The supply is high, and the price increase is weak, but the pre - holiday stocking may limit the decline [40] 3.6.7 Asphalt - Expect a short - term trading range between 3350 - 3480. It is in the seasonal demand peak season, and inventory changes are crucial [41] 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - The market is weak due to insufficient cost support. PX supply is increasing, PTA supply is rising, and ethylene glycol has long - term supply pressure [43] 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Maintain a long - term bearish view. Supply is abundant, and demand is hard to exceed expectations [44] 3.6.10 Pulp - Observe port de - stocking and spot transactions. The inventory is decreasing, and there is a planned maintenance [45] 3.6.11 Urea - Follow spot prices for futures operations. The domestic demand is weak, and the Indian tender results have limited impact on the domestic market [46] 3.6.12 Synthetic Rubber - Wait and see. The short - term supply and policy may put pressure on the price, but the decline space is limited [47]

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term trading may be mainly in a range - bound pattern, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. It is advisable to focus on swing trading and avoid chasing highs or selling lows [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Consider buying bonds on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing, but pay attention to the trading rhythm [11]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel is expected to maintain a range - bound market, and it is recommended to wait and see. Hold a small short position in iron ore [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to decline from high levels in the short term. Pay attention to the production progress in the origin and the production status of steel mills and coking enterprises [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 10 - contract of ferrosilicon. Adopt a medium - to long - term strategy of shorting manganese silicon on rebounds without chasing the short [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, maintain a bearish trend strategy of selling on rallies, and exit flexibly if a short - term positive feedback atmosphere emerges. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [16]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: For aluminum, with strong expectations of Fed rate cuts and improving consumption in the peak season, buy on dips cautiously. For alumina, with high production and supply and rising inventory pressure, sell on rallies [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. The current supply - demand situation is strong on both sides, but the expected resumption of production on the supply side may have a negative impact on sentiment [20]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It may still have room for adjustment in the short term due to the impact of polysilicon, but the downward adjustment space is limited. Consider buying a small amount of far - month contracts at the lower end of the range [21]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy progress dominates the price fluctuation. If there is no substantial policy implementation in the short term, the upside will be gradually pressured after the futures price rises above the spot price. Be cautious in operation [22]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, cotton prices may continue to be under pressure, and a bearish strategy may be appropriate in the long term. Consider selling on rallies [24]. - **Sugar**: The fundamental situation of sugar prices is bearish, but after a continuous decline, there is a technical rebound demand. Pay close attention to the change in the domestic - foreign sugar price spread and consider covering short positions on rallies near the 5 - week moving average if necessary [26]. - **Eggs**: The probability of a short - term market reversal is not high. However, in the peak season, the spot price is short - term strong. There is a logic of production capacity reduction in the futures market, and the futures price may have a phased rebound. Consider short - term long positions on dips with caution [31]. - **Apples**: Consider buying on dips with a small position [33]. - **Corn**: Short the 01 - contract on rallies [34]. - **Red Dates**: Sell on rallies [35]. - **Hogs**: For near - month contracts, adopt a bearish strategy on rallies and control the trading rhythm. For the medium - to long - term, focus on low - buying opportunities for the 01 - contract. Also, pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread and 1 - 3 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [35]. - **Crude Oil**: It is likely to enter a supply - exceeding - demand pattern. Consider shorting on rallies [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the movement of crude oil prices. The short - term trading range of oil prices is estimated to be between 65 and 70 dollars [35]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and a weak supply - demand pattern. The rebound space is limited, and a bearish strategy can be adopted after the rebound [37]. - **Rubber**: Except for the impact of weather and rainfall, there are no obvious fundamental contradictions. Consider reducing long positions or holding a small position or waiting and seeing [38]. - **Methanol**: The supply - demand situation is weak with continuous inventory accumulation at ports. However, there may be some supply disturbances. It is advisable to switch to a range - bound trading strategy and reduce short positions for now [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy [40]. - **Asphalt**: It will follow the movement of oil prices, and the short - term trading range is estimated to be between 3380 and 3450 [41]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The market may have a limited further downward space in the short term and has a demand for oversold correction. Consider buying on dips [43]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: It has a large supply and limited upward space. Maintain a long - term bearish view [44]. - **Pulp**: Observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and the situation of spot transactions in the short term [45]. - **Logs**: The fundamental situation is range - bound. If the price - holding strategy is well - implemented and downstream orders in the peak season are good, consider buying on dips with a small position while controlling risks [46]. - **Urea**: Follow the movement of spot prices in futures trading. The 01 - contract of urea futures is oscillating weakly [46]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Wait and see in the short term or look for low - buying opportunities on the futures price [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the high - quality implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the development achievements of the industrial and telecommunications industries in the past five years and responded to hot topics [7]. - The US government announced preliminary benchmark revision data, showing a downward revision of 911,000 non - farm payrolls in the year ending March, which may lay the foundation for a series of Fed rate cuts starting next week [7]. - Apple held its 2025 autumn new product launch, releasing multiple new products including the iPhone 17 series [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation held a press conference, stating that it will closely monitor the competition in the food delivery industry, urge platforms to control subsidies, and improve the protection of riders' rights [8]. - Ningde Times' subsidiary is promoting the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine, and the progress is faster than expected [8]. - The rumor of Alibaba's restart of Koubei.com is false, and the press conference is related to Gaode and group - buying business [8]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading and intraday closing - out handling fees for the PS2511 contract of polysilicon futures and limited the daily opening volume for non - futures company members or clients on the SI2511 contract of industrial silicon futures and the PS2511 contract of polysilicon futures [9]. Stock Index Futures Tuesday's A - share market was weakly consolidating, with over 4000 stocks falling. The short - term may be range - bound, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. It is advisable to focus on swing trading and avoid chasing highs or selling lows [10]. Treasury Bond Futures Consider buying bonds on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing, but pay attention to the trading rhythm. The recent weakening of foreign trade data may contribute to future monetary easing [11]. Steel and Iron Ore From a policy perspective, the impact on steel supply and market prices is limited. In terms of pricing rhythm, there may be a situation of "no peak season in the peak season". The demand for building materials is weak, and the supply is expected to remain strong. Steel is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to hold a small short position in iron ore [12][13]. Coking Coal and Coke The prices may continue to decline from high levels in the short term. The supply may gradually recover, but the mid - term resumption of coking coal production is hindered. The demand is supported by high - level iron - making in steel mills, but there is a possibility of a decline [15]. Ferroalloys There is an opportunity to go long on the 10 - contract of ferrosilicon. Manganese silicon should be shorted on rebounds in the medium - to long - term, but avoid chasing short positions. The spread between ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may widen [15]. Soda Ash and Glass For soda ash, sell on rallies and exit flexibly if the positive feedback atmosphere emerges. For glass, wait and see. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the demand for photovoltaic glass may increase. The price of glass has risen, and the future supply may slightly increase [16][17]. Aluminum and Alumina For aluminum, with strong expectations of Fed rate cuts and improving consumption in the peak season, buy on dips cautiously. For alumina, with high production and supply and rising inventory pressure, sell on rallies [19]. Lithium Carbonate It will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. The current supply - demand situation is strong on both sides, but the expected resumption of production on the supply side may have a negative impact on sentiment [20]. Industrial Silicon It may still have room for adjustment in the short term due to the impact of polysilicon, but the downward adjustment space is limited. Consider buying a small amount of far - month contracts at the lower end of the range [21]. Polysilicon Policy progress dominates the price fluctuation. If there is no substantial policy implementation in the short term, the upside will be gradually pressured after the futures price rises above the spot price. Be cautious in operation [22]. Cotton In the short term, cotton prices may continue to be under pressure, and a bearish strategy may be appropriate in the long term. Consider selling on rallies. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [24]. Sugar The fundamental situation of sugar prices is bearish, but after a continuous decline, there is a technical rebound demand. Pay close attention to the change in the domestic - foreign sugar price spread and consider covering short positions on rallies near the 5 - week moving average if necessary [26]. Eggs The probability of a short - term market reversal is not high. However, in the peak season, the spot price is short - term strong. There is a logic of production capacity reduction in the futures market, and the futures price may have a phased rebound. Consider short - term long positions on dips with caution [31]. Apples Consider buying on dips with a small position. The price of early - maturing apples may affect the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples [33]. Corn Short the 01 - contract on rallies. The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend, and the trading focus will shift to new crops in September [34]. Red Dates Sell on rallies. The market trading volume is small, and the price is oscillating weakly [35]. Hogs For near - month contracts, adopt a bearish strategy on rallies and control the trading rhythm. For the medium - to long - term, focus on low - buying opportunities for the 01 - contract. Also, pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread and 1 - 3 positive spread arbitrage opportunities. The short - term market is in a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern [35]. Crude Oil It is likely to enter a supply - exceeding - demand pattern. Consider shorting on rallies. Pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations and whether OPEC+ will increase the production quota [35]. Fuel Oil The price will follow the movement of crude oil prices. The short - term trading range of oil prices is estimated to be between 65 and 70 dollars. The low - sulfur fuel oil has weak fundamentals, and the high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by refinery raw material demand [35][36]. Plastics Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and a weak supply - demand pattern. The rebound space is limited, and a bearish strategy can be adopted after the rebound [37]. Rubber Except for the impact of weather and rainfall, there are no obvious fundamental contradictions. Consider reducing long positions or holding a small position or waiting and seeing [38]. Methanol The supply - demand situation is weak with continuous inventory accumulation at ports. However, there may be some supply disturbances. It is advisable to switch to a range - bound trading strategy and reduce short positions for now [39]. Caustic Soda Adopt a range - bound trading strategy. The high supply pressure and the price trend of alumina have an impact on the price of caustic soda [40]. Asphalt It will follow the movement of oil prices, and the short - term trading range is estimated to be between 3380 and 3450. It has entered the seasonal demand peak season, and the inventory is at a critical stage [41][42]. Polyester Industry Chain The market may have a limited further downward space in the short term and has a demand for oversold correction. Consider buying on dips. The cost support is strengthening, and the supply - demand situation of each product in the polyester chain varies [43]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) It has a large supply and limited upward space. Maintain a long - term bearish view. The price may follow the movement of crude oil prices [44]. Pulp Observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and the situation of spot transactions in the short term. The port inventory is still high, and the spot trading is weak [45]. Logs The fundamental situation is range - bound. If the price - holding strategy is well - implemented and downstream orders in the peak season are good, consider buying on dips with a small position while controlling risks [46]. Urea Follow the movement of spot prices in futures trading. The 01 - contract of urea futures is oscillating weakly. The market is waiting for the result of the rumored Indian urea procurement tender [46]. Synthetic Rubber Wait and see in the short term or look for low - buying opportunities on the futures price. The factory prices of butadiene and synthetic rubber have been lowered, and the downstream procurement has increased [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Financial**: Short - term stock index futures may fluctuate, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips; for treasury bond futures, consider buying on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing [7][8]. - **Black Metals**: Steel may maintain a volatile market, iron ore can be lightly shorted; coking coal and coke prices may continue to fall from high levels in the short term; for ferroalloys, go long on silicon iron 10 - contract and short manganese silicon on rebounds in the medium - long term; for soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies, and for glass, wait and see [10][12][13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Aluminum can be bought on dips, alumina can be shorted on rallies; zinc prices will fluctuate downward; lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely in the short term; industrial silicon will continue to oscillate within a narrow range [17][18][19]. - **Agricultural Products**: Zhengzhou cotton may continue to be under pressure in the short term; sugar may rebound in the short term but has downward pressure in the medium - short term; for eggs, trade with a volatile mindset; buy apples on dips; short corn 01 - contract on rallies; short jujubes on rallies; for live pigs, short near - month contracts on rallies and consider long 01 - contract in the medium - long term [24][27][30]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For crude oil, consider shorting on rallies; fuel oil prices will follow crude oil; plastics will maintain a relatively strong volatile trend in the short term; rubber can hold long positions and reduce some on further rallies; methanol should be traded with a volatile mindset; caustic soda should be treated with a volatile view; asphalt follows crude oil; for the polyester industry chain, consider buying on dips; liquefied petroleum gas should be held with a long - term bearish view; paper pulp should observe port de - stocking and spot transactions; for logs, consider light - long positions on dips if conditions are met [35][36][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - China's goods trade进出口总值 in August was 3.87 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year - on - year. From January to August, the total value was 29.57 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year - on - year [4]. - Two departments promote the high - quality development of "AI + energy", aiming to initially build an innovation system by 2027 [4]. - On September 8, the application for child - rearing subsidies was fully opened [4]. - After the "8·8" property market policy in Beijing, the transaction volume of new and second - hand houses increased in August, and the market is expected to maintain the trend in September [4]. - In August, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 1.101 million, up 7.5% year - on - year and 11.6% month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [5]. - The French government failed the confidence vote, and the prime minister will submit his resignation [5]. - Multiple institutions predict that the US employment data may be significantly revised downward [5]. - Trump's 50% tariff on India may drag down its GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points [5]. - As of September 8, the issuance of new special bonds in China reached 3.3822 trillion yuan, accounting for 76.9% of the annual plan [5]. Macro - Financial Stock Index Futures - Short - term trading may be volatile, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. On Monday, A - shares were divided, with nearly 4000 stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to 3826.84 points, and the trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan. Overseas, non - farm data was lower than expected, and the market is discussing a possible 50bp rate cut by the Fed in September [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Consider buying on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing. The money market tightened, and the bond market fell. The release of weak foreign trade data may contribute to future monetary easing. The bond market may perform well in September [8]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has limited impact on steel supply and market. The peak season may not be prosperous due to limited downstream demand. Steel may maintain a volatile market, and iron ore can be lightly shorted. After the parade, steel production recovered, and iron ore prices were relatively strong, while downstream demand was weak [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to fall from high levels in the short term. After the parade, supply may gradually recover, but the "anti - involution" expectation has re - emerged. The supply of coking coal may be restricted in the medium term, and the demand from steel mills is strong but may decline. The first round of coke price cuts has started, weakening market sentiment [12]. Ferroalloys - Silicon iron supply has returned to a high level, and there is limited room for further increase. Manganese silicon will have new capacity in the fourth quarter. The spread between silicon iron and manganese silicon may widen. Go long on silicon iron 10 - contract and short manganese silicon on rebounds in the medium - long term [13]. Soda Ash and Glass - Glass rose, and soda ash followed. For soda ash, short on rallies; for glass, wait and see. The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand from the photovoltaic industry is good. The glass market is affected by the expected fuel upgrade in the main production areas [14]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum can be bought on dips due to expected consumption recovery and potential inventory reduction, but be cautious due to weak downstream confidence. Alumina has high supply and inventory, and its price is under pressure, so short on rallies [17]. Shanghai Zinc - Social inventory is increasing, and the inventory inflection point has arrived. With rising processing fees, smelters are resuming production, and zinc prices will decline as the industry enters the off - season and downstream demand is weak [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply and demand are both strong, and the price is supported by a supply - demand gap, but there is insufficient driving force for continuous increase, so it will fluctuate widely in the short term [19]. Industrial Silicon - It may have a small adjustment pressure in the short term and will continue to oscillate within a narrow range. The resumption of production of leading factories in Xinjiang is the core contradiction, and inventory reduction is expected after the southwest region cuts production in the dry season [20]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton may be under pressure in the short term due to new cotton supply and weak demand. Globally, cotton production and inventory are changing. In China, cotton imports have decreased, and the spot price is firm, but the downstream demand is still weak [24][25][26]. Sugar - It may rebound in the short term but has downward pressure in the medium - short term. Globally, there is a supply surplus. In China, imports are increasing, and domestic demand is weakening [27][28][29]. Eggs - The laying hen inventory is high, and the probability of a short - term market reversal is low. However, due to the peak season, the spot price is strong in the short term. Futures have the logic of capacity reduction, so trade with a volatile mindset [30]. Apples - Buy on dips. The price of early - maturing apples is high, and the price of late - maturing apples is affected by the early - maturing and old - season apples [31]. Corn - Short the 01 - contract on rallies. The domestic corn price is divided. In the northeast, the price is rising due to low inventory, while in the north - central region, it is falling due to sufficient supply [32]. Jujubes - Short on rallies. The price in the production area is stable, and the price in the sales area is mainly stable with some high - quality products rising [33]. Live Pigs - Short near - month contracts on rallies and consider long 01 - contract in the medium - long term. The short - term market has a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern, and the supply pressure is high before the holidays [33]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Consider shorting on rallies. OPEC + is increasing production, and the market may enter a supply - surplus pattern. Pay attention to the US - Russia negotiation and OPEC + quota [35]. Fuel Oil - Prices will follow crude oil. The short - term trading will focus on supply and geopolitics, and the low - sulfur and high - sulfur fundamentals are affected by different factors [35]. Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and will be weak in terms of supply - demand. However, the market sentiment is boosted by rumors of anti - involution policies, and it will maintain a relatively strong volatile trend in the short term [36]. Rubber - Hold long positions and reduce some on further rallies. The market sentiment is improved by the poor US non - farm data and policy rumors. The supply of raw materials is tight [37]. Methanol - Trade with a volatile mindset. The port inventory is increasing, but the market is affected by rumors of device shutdowns and new device startups [38]. Caustic Soda - Treat with a volatile view. After the parade, the supply - demand situation in Shandong may improve, but the market sentiment is affected by factors such as the increase in alumina enterprises' liquid caustic soda purchases [38]. Asphalt - Follows crude oil. It has entered the seasonal peak demand season, and the inventory is at a critical stage [39][40]. Polyester Industry Chain - Consider buying on dips. After a sharp decline, there is a repair demand. The supply - demand situation of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol is different [41]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Hold a long - term bearish view. It follows crude oil prices and is affected by import volume. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak [42]. Paper Pulp - Observe port de - stocking and spot transactions. The port inventory is still high, and the spot trading is weak [43]. Logs - Consider light - long positions on dips if the price - holding and downstream orders are good. The spot price is stable, and the foreign price of logs has decreased [44]. Urea - Hold a bearish view. The domestic demand is weak, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, showing a downward - oscillating trend [45]. Synthetic Rubber - Reduce long positions on further rallies and look for low - buying opportunities. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and it will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to policies, device changes, and downstream purchasing sentiment [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamental situation of the log market is in a state of oscillation. Downstream demand remains stable, but traders have a strong willingness to support prices during the peak season, causing the futures market to rebound following market sentiment. It is crucial to observe the implementation of price - support measures and downstream orders during the peak season. If the implementation is satisfactory, one can consider lightly opening long positions at low prices, while also paying attention to risk prevention [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply Side** - This week, the number of arriving ships decreased to 5 from 15 last week, and the arrival volume dropped by 37.1 million cubic meters to 17 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs decreased by 22.35 million cubic meters to 195.33 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume of radiata pine decreased by 20.96 million cubic meters to 139.72 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. The import volume of spruce and fir decreased by 2.15 million cubic meters to 13.73 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 44%. - In the short term, the arrival volume has rebounded this week, and the supply side has a certain amount of pressure. From the perspective of New Zealand's shipping seasonality, shipments usually increase in September. The poor order - taking situation in August led to a reduction in quotes, which promoted the import willingness of domestic traders to some extent. It is expected that the arrival volume in late September to mid - October will increase, depending on the peak - season price - support situation in the domestic spot market and traders' import profits [7]. - **Demand and Inventory Side** - The peak season has arrived, but the port's outbound volume has not improved significantly. Demand remains weak, and there are no large concentrated orders. The weekly outbound volume decreased by 0.56 million cubic meters to 42.84 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.98 million cubic meters. The apparent demand decreased by 40.85 million cubic meters to 22 million cubic meters. - Although the total arrival volume last week was still low, factory demand remained stable. The arrival volume increased rapidly this week, and it is expected that inventory will fluctuate and gradually accumulate [9]. - **Price and Spread** - **Outer Market**: The outer - market price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine from New Zealand (CFR) is in the range of 113 - 115 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 5 US dollars compared to the previous period. - **Spot**: Demand remains stable. As the peak season approaches, spot prices are relatively stable, and traders have a strong willingness to support prices during the peak season. The prices of knot - free wood and sawn timber are currently polarized. In the short term, downstream acceptance is limited, and prices are expected to remain stable. - **Futures Market**: The fundamental situation is oscillating. Last week, the futures market was mainly affected by outer - market price adjustments. In the short term, the supply side has no significant pressure, and demand remains stable. It is expected that prices will oscillate. If spot prices increase smoothly this week, prices may oscillate upwards [11]. - **Spreads and Basis**: Spot spreads are relatively stable, mainly reflected in glued - laminated timber and sawn timber. Affected by spot spreads, the current basis can be considered at the level of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine, with a reference size difference of 8%, equivalent to about 790 - 800 yuan per cubic meter in the futures market [13]. - **Cost and Profit** - The import cost of radiata pine decreased by 33 yuan to 968 yuan, and the import cost of spruce increased by 13 yuan to 1266 yuan. The import profit of radiata pine increased by 32.7 yuan to - 31 yuan, and the import profit of spruce decreased by 13 yuan to - 116 yuan. - The outer - market quotes have decreased, and import profits have rebounded. In the short term, the fundamental situation is still oscillating. Spot import profits are acceptable. If spot price increases are implemented, import profits will further improve [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation** - The fundamental situation is oscillating. Downstream demand remains stable, but traders have a strong willingness to support prices during the peak season, causing the futures market to rebound following market sentiment. Observe the implementation of price - support measures and downstream orders during the peak season. If the implementation is satisfactory, one can consider lightly opening long positions at low prices, while also paying attention to risk prevention [17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The log balance sheet shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand differences of logs on a weekly basis from June 6, 2025, to September 5, 2025. In general, the arrival volume, daily average shipment volume, and apparent demand have all fluctuated, and inventory has also changed accordingly, with supply - demand differences sometimes positive and sometimes negative [19]. Part 3: Log Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **New Zealand Log Shipment Volume**: No specific data content provided. - **Log Import**: No specific data content provided. - **Import by Tree Species**: No specific data content provided. - **Demand Side** - **Daily Average Shipment Volume of Logs**: No specific data content provided. - **Real Estate**: No specific data content provided. - **Downstream Analysis** - **Timber Analysis - Price**: No specific data content provided. - **Timber Analysis - Profit**: No specific data content provided. - **Downstream Substitute - Aluminum Alloy Analysis**: No specific data content provided. - **Inventory Side** - **Inventory - Summary**: No specific data content provided. - **Inventory - By Tree Species**: No specific data content provided. - **Inventory - By Region**: No specific data content provided. Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log Import Cost and Profit**: No specific data content provided. - **Log Delivery Profit**: No specific data content provided. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - Market Quotes**: No specific data content provided. - **Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices**: The prices of radiata pine and spruce show certain seasonal characteristics in 2024 and 2025 [89]. - **Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads**: No specific data content provided. - **Basis between Radiata Pine and LG**: No specific data content provided. - **Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread of LG Main Contracts**: The price of the LG main contract shows certain seasonal characteristics in 2024 and 2025 [100].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main trading logic of industrial silicon is related to the 12 - contract after the delivery rule modification. The 11 - 12 month spread is around 2200 when the price is below 11500. It is recommended to wait and see when the month spread is between 2000 - 2200. For the 06 contract, a light - short position can be tried at 11700 - 11800, and an over - the - counter option with a 300 - point fuse cumulative put can be considered at 11700 for the 06 contract. The variables include the production cut progress of northern silicon plants, the inventory reduction speed of downstream silicon wafers, and the situation of southwest factories locking long - term production capacity and resuming production in advance. The main contradiction of industrial silicon is the resumption progress of leading large factories. There is an inventory accumulation expectation during the wet season, but the downward adjustment space is limited due to the inventory reduction expectation during the dry season, and it will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range from September to October [65][66][70]. - The main trading logic of polysilicon is centered around policy progress. The release of the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" on September 4 triggered market attention. Without actual policy implementation, there may be adjustment pressure at the beginning of next week. The price increase space is limited after the sales restriction in September. In September, it enters the last stage of the previous merger plan, and the industry meeting in Baotou on September 12 may bring relevant industry disturbances. After the six - ministry meeting on August 19 strengthened the supply - side policy expectation, the 14th Five - Year Plan in October will focus on demand - side guidance, and the polysilicon price is expected to remain strong in the medium term [71][72]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon Overview and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Overview (9.1 - 9.5)**: In the industrial silicon market, the prices of 553 and 421 remained unchanged week - on - week, while the price of 99 silicon in Xinjiang decreased by 100 yuan. Some raw material prices, such as silicon coal, increased. The production of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with a national decrease of 0.3%. In the polysilicon market, the price of N - type polysilicon dense material increased by 5.3%, while the price of 99 silicon continued to decline. The production of polysilicon decreased by 2.6%, and the inventory decreased by 0.9%. The production of silicon wafers increased by 3.5%, and the inventory decreased by 6.6%. The production of organic silicon monomers increased by 1.0%, and the demand increased by 3.9%. The consumption of aluminum alloy decreased by 8.0%, and the export increased by 8.3% [7][9]. 2. Balance Sheet - Industrial Silicon Supply - **Neutral Assumption**: The production of industrial silicon shows a downward trend in 2025 compared with 2024. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan has different changes. The production in Xinjiang decreased in some months, while the production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly in some months. The production forecast is adjusted according to the production resumption and reduction plans of large factories [12]. - **Supply Hypothesis**: The production forecast of large factories in Xinjiang from April to October is adjusted downwards, and the production forecast of other regions in Xinjiang is adjusted upwards. There is an expectation of production resumption in Xinjiang in June. The monthly production in Xinjiang and Yunnan in July is adjusted upwards, and the production expectation of large factories in Xinjiang in July is adjusted downwards. The resumption volume in September is adjusted downwards, and the production in the southwest in October is adjusted upwards [16]. 3. Balance Sheet - Industrial Silicon Demand - **Neutral Assumption**: The demand for industrial silicon mainly comes from DMC, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. The production of DMC shows a certain growth trend, while the production of polysilicon shows a downward trend in 2025 compared with 2024. The consumption of aluminum alloy also shows some fluctuations. The total demand and supply - demand gap are calculated based on the supply and demand data [20]. - **Demand Hypothesis**: The production forecast of DMC is adjusted upwards. The annual production growth rate expectation of exports is adjusted downwards, and the production expectation of polysilicon from June to October is adjusted upwards. The production expectation of polysilicon from July to September is adjusted upwards, and the production expectation of polysilicon is adjusted downwards due to possible changes in the resumption plan of a base in Xinjiang [20]. 4. Balance Sheet - Polysilicon Supply - **Neutral Assumption**: The supply of polysilicon shows a downward trend in 2025 compared with 2024. The production capacity utilization rate also shows some fluctuations. The production forecast is adjusted according to the production resumption and reduction plans of large factories [33]. - **Assumption**: There is an expectation of production resumption of a large rod - shaped silicon factory in the southwest in May. The production expectation of polysilicon from June to October is adjusted upwards, and the production expectation of polysilicon from July to September is adjusted upwards. The production expectation of polysilicon is adjusted downwards due to possible changes in the resumption plan of a base in Xinjiang [33]. 5. Balance Sheet - Polysilicon Demand - **Neutral Assumption**: The demand for polysilicon mainly comes from silicon wafers. The production of silicon wafers shows a certain growth trend, and the total demand and supply - demand gap are calculated based on the supply and demand data [40]. - **Polysilicon Demand Hypothesis**: The silicon wafer quota in the second quarter is higher than expected, which supports the inventory reduction expectation of polysilicon. The production growth rate of silicon wafers is assumed to be slightly more optimistic than the installation growth rate [41]. 6. Cost Curve - The cost curves of polysilicon mixed - material under different scenarios (considering and not considering waste - heat power generation) are provided, showing the cost levels of different enterprises in the wet season [62][63].