Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Various sectors in the market are exposed to diverse influencing factors and demonstrate distinct trends. For instance, in the macro - financial domain, the probability of central bank easing is increasing; in the black commodity sector, double - coke may continue to fluctuate and rise in the short term; in the agricultural product sector, supply pressure and weak demand are common challenges [12][14][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast, and remain at 2.9% in 2026. The economic growth expectations of the US, the Eurozone, Japan, and the UK have been slightly raised [9]. - Multiple Fed officials support replacing the current 2% inflation target with a target range. There are increasing differences within the Fed regarding the future monetary policy path [9]. - The US second - quarter current account deficit decreased by $188.5 billion, reaching the lowest level since Q3 2023 at $251.3 billion [10]. - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, and the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9, with the composite PMI preliminary value at 53.6, all lower than expected and hitting a three - month low [10]. - The Eurozone September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding expectations [10]. - Indonesia and the EU signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, aiming for it to take effect on January 1, 2027 [10]. - Argentina temporarily cancelled export withholding taxes on agricultural products such as grains, beef, and poultry until October 31 to increase dollar supply and stabilize the local currency exchange rate [10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider buying on dips and mainly adopt a range - trading approach. The A - share market fluctuated widely. The probability of central bank easing in the future is increasing, and the market is currently in a state of shock [12]. Bond Futures - The strategy is to continue to consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves in the medium - to - long term. For the unilateral strategy, consider buying bonds on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing [13]. Black Commodities Coal and Coke - Double - coke prices may continue to fluctuate and rise in the short term. Attention should be paid to the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" period for finished products and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [14]. Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon, the long - term trend is expected to be bearish on rallies as new capacity is being released. For silicon iron, it is also recommended to be bearish on rallies in the medium term due to an oversupply situation [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, maintain a bearish - on - rallies strategy, and be flexible to exit if a short - term positive feedback atmosphere emerges. For glass, it is advisable to wait and see for now [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to remain at a relatively high level before the holiday, and it is recommended to wait and see at high levels. Alumina has increasing surplus pressure, and it is advisable to be bearish on rallies [18]. Zinc - After the macro - impact fades and the decline in overseas inventories slows down, zinc prices will fluctuate downward as supply increases and demand support is weak [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Supported by short - term inventory reduction, lithium carbonate will mainly operate in a wide - range shock without obvious driving factors [21]. Industrial Silicon - The market is trading the expectation of inventory reduction during the dry season in advance, and industrial silicon will operate in a shock - upward range with limited downward adjustment space [22]. Polysilicon - The market is mainly driven by policy progress. In the short term, the market is weak, and it is advisable to treat it as a wide - range shock and operate cautiously [23]. Agricultural Products Cotton - With complex upstream - downstream games, increasing supply pressure, and weak demand, it is advisable to be cautious when adopting a bearish - on - rallies strategy [25]. Sugar - The domestic sugar fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to maintain a bearish strategy, but be cautious due to holiday - related capital fluctuations [27]. Eggs - With a high inventory of laying hens and limited capacity reduction, it is recommended to adopt a bearish - on - rallies strategy [28]. Apples - It is advisable to wait and see for now, paying attention to the weather in production areas and the opening price of new - season apples [29]. Corn - The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options. The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and there is a supply gap expectation in the 2025/26 season [30][31]. Jujubes - It is advisable to be bearish on rallies as the market price is stable and consumption is weak [32]. Pigs - For near - month contracts, it is advisable to be bearish on rallies. The supply - demand pattern remains strong supply and weak demand, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [32]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - With geopolitical factors and a possible shift to a supply - surplus situation, it is advisable to consider shorting on rallies [35]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices as the support from geopolitical factors weakens [35]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and are expected to operate in a weak - shock pattern. It is advisable to consider a small - scale short position [38]. Rubber - Attention should be paid to the impact of typhoons on Hainan's rubber production areas and relevant policies [39]. Methanol - With large port inventory pressure, methanol is expected to continue to operate in a weak - shock pattern [40]. Caustic Soda - It is advisable to maintain a bearish strategy as the futures price is in a downward trend and deviates from the spot price [41]. Asphalt - Asphalt will follow crude oil prices as its own fundamentals are stable [42]. Offset Printing Paper - The market is expected to operate in a shock pattern. It is advisable to consider a long - position or sell - put strategy near the production cost line [44]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester chain products are expected to continue to operate in a weak - shock pattern due to a lack of fundamental drivers [45]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG supply is abundant. Although it may strengthen in the short term, it is advisable to maintain a bearish view in the long term [46]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to operate in a shock pattern. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and spot transactions [47]. Logs - The market is expected to operate in a shock pattern. If price support is effective and downstream orders are good, it is advisable to consider a small - scale long position [48]. Urea - It is advisable to maintain a shock - trading strategy as the spot price lacks upward momentum and production is increasing [48]. Synthetic Rubber - The main contract is expected to operate in a weak - shock pattern. Be cautious when shorting on sharp drops [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The probability of central bank easing is increasing. The capital market's technology - related content has further improved, and various medium - and long - term funds' holdings of A - share floating market value have increased. There are expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the fourth quarter [6][7][10]. - **Stock Market**: A - share technology stocks are favored by funds. The stock market shows signs of a breakthrough after a sharp rise in August, but the sustainability of the upward momentum needs to be observed. It is advisable to consider going long on the stock index futures at low levels and adopt a shock - operation strategy [10]. - **Bond Market**: It is recommended to steepen the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves in the medium - to - long - term for treasury bond futures. A strategy of going long on bonds at low levels can be adopted to bet on the intensification of future monetary policies [11]. - **Black Commodities**: The steel market may experience a "not - so - prosperous peak season." Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, with short - selling of wide - straddle options on steel and short - selling of iron ore at high levels. Double - coking coal prices may continue to rise in the short - term, but the focus should be on the demand of finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [14][15][16]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Aluminum is expected to remain at a relatively high level before the holiday, with a recommendation of high - level observation and appropriate long - buying at low levels. Alumina has an increasing surplus pressure, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [21]. - **Agricultural Products**: For cotton, a strategy of short - selling at high levels is recommended; for sugar, a short - selling strategy is advisable; for eggs, a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is suggested; for apples, a wait - and - see approach is recommended; for corn, selling out - of - the - money call options is proposed; for hogs, a short - selling strategy on the near - term contracts at high levels is recommended [28][30][32][33][34][35]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For crude oil, short - selling at high levels can be considered; for fuel oil, its price will follow the oil price; for plastics, a weak - shock strategy with a small - amount short - selling allocation is recommended; for rubber, short - term long - buying strategies can be considered; for methanol, a shock strategy is recommended; for caustic soda, the futures are expected to be weak; for asphalt, it will follow the oil price; for the polyester industry chain, a weak - shock trend is expected; for liquefied petroleum gas, a long - term short - selling strategy is maintained [37][38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Information - The capital market's technology - related content has further improved, with the market value of the A - share technology sector accounting for over 1/4. As of the end of August, various medium - and long - term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share floating market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan," and foreign investors held 3.4 trillion yuan of A - share market value [6]. - China's 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs have remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. There are expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the fourth quarter [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments have issued a work plan for the stable growth of the steel industry, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry in the next two years [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - A - share technology stocks are favored by funds. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3828.58 points, with daily trading volume reaching 2.14 trillion yuan. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels and adopt a shock - operation strategy [10]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market was generally strong and volatile on Monday. The central bank conducted a 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. It is recommended to steepen the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves in the medium - to - long - term and go long on bonds at low levels [11]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - The policy impact on the black market is expected to be neutral, and the market will return to supply - demand fundamentals. The steel market may experience a "not - so - prosperous peak season." Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, with short - selling of wide - straddle options on steel and short - selling of iron ore at high levels [14][15]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Double - coking coal prices may continue to rise in the short - term. The focus should be on the demand of finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to remain at a relatively high level before the holiday, with a recommendation of high - level observation and appropriate long - buying at low levels. Alumina has an increasing surplus pressure, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [21]. 3.4.2 Zinc - As the macro - impact fades, zinc prices are expected to weaken due to increased supply and weak demand [22]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term destocking supports the price, and it is expected to move in a shock manner [23]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low levels within the range. The resumption progress of Xinjiang's leading manufacturers is the core supply - demand contradiction [25]. 3.4.5 Polysilicon - It is recommended to operate cautiously with a wide - range shock. The policy progress dominates the price fluctuation [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - A strategy of short - selling at high levels is recommended due to increasing supply and weak demand [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - A short - selling strategy is advisable as the domestic and international sugar markets face supply pressure [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - A strategy of short - selling on rebounds is suggested as the supply pressure is large and the peak season is coming to an end [32]. 3.5.4 Apples - A wait - and - see approach is recommended. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas [33]. 3.5.5 Corn - Selling out - of - the - money call options is proposed. The price may decline with the increase in new grain supply, but there is support at the bottom [34]. 3.5.6 Hogs - A short - selling strategy on the near - term contracts at high levels is recommended. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand [35]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - It is advisable to short - sell at high levels as the market is likely to shift to a supply - surplus pattern [37]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Its price will follow the oil price, with weak fundamentals for low - sulfur fuel oil and changing demand for high - sulfur fuel oil [38]. 3.6.3 Plastics - A weak - shock strategy with a small - amount short - selling allocation is recommended due to high supply and weak demand [39]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Short - term long - buying strategies can be considered as the price may strengthen gradually [40]. 3.6.5 Methanol - A shock strategy is recommended as the port inventory pressure is large [40]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - The futures are expected to be weak as the futures and spot prices deviate [42]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - It will follow the oil price, and the current demand is in the peak season [43]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - A weak - shock trend is expected due to weak cost - side drivers and lack of demand [45]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - A long - term short - selling strategy is maintained as the supply is abundant and demand is hard to strengthen beyond expectations [46].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various sectors including macro finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each sector's commodities, and gives corresponding trading suggestions such as long, short, or neutral positions [13][16][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China and the US leaders had a phone call to discuss bilateral relations; the central bank adjusted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations; the State Council held a meeting on government procurement policies and reviewed a draft banking supervision law; Shanghai optimized property tax policies; multiple government departments issued industry - related policies; major express companies in Shanghai will raise prices; the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate and started to reduce holdings; the UK had a high budget deficit; the US faced a potential government shutdown; and European Central Bank officials had different views on interest rates [9][10][11]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Consider buying on dips and adopting a range - bound trading strategy. A - share indices declined, and the market is expected to be range - bound with a potential increase in central bank easing probability [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - Consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the medium - to - long - term and buying bonds on dips, betting on further monetary policy easing [14]. Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - Steel is expected to trade in a range, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies. For arbitrage, go long on the iron ore 1 - 5 spread on dips and hold short wide - straddle options on steel. The market may experience a "peak season without peak" situation due to limited demand improvement and high inventory [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to rise in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" and the pre - National Day restocking rhythm [18]. Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon is expected to be shorted on rallies in the medium - to - long - term due to long - term oversupply. Silicon iron is also recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium - term considering its current oversupply and potential cost changes [19][20]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass is recommended to be observed for now. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and there is potential delivery pressure, while the glass market is affected by inventory and demand [21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to remain at a relatively high level before the festival and can be bought on dips, while being cautious after the festival. Alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies due to oversupply [23]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to decline as the supply increases and demand support is weak [24]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a state of strong reality and weak expectation, with prices expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [26]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon can be bought on dips in the far - month contracts. The key to supply - demand lies in the resumption progress of Xinjiang's leading manufacturers, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the dry season [27]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policy progress, with prices expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. Caution is needed in operation [28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton is recommended to be shorted on rallies due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [30]. Sugar - Sugar prices are expected to face pressure both internationally and domestically. It is recommended to take a short position [32]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to weaken after the Mid - Autumn Festival. It is recommended to short on rallies, especially in the near - month contracts [33]. Apples - It is recommended to observe the apple market for now due to uncertainties such as weather and new - season opening prices [34]. Corn - Keep an eye on the new - grain listing rhythm and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [34]. Red Dates - Red dates are recommended to be shorted on rallies due to stable prices and weak consumption [36]. Pigs - The pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with prices expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short on rallies in the near - month contracts [37]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil is expected to be in a situation of oversupply, with prices likely to decline. The peak - season demand logic is ending, and the market may return to a weak - fundamental state [39]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow the trend of crude oil, which is affected by geopolitical risks and expected future oversupply [40]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly due to high supply pressure. Consider taking a short position [41]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and caution is needed in holding positions [42]. Methanol - Methanol is recommended to be traded with a weak - range - bound strategy due to high port inventory pressure [43]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are expected to trade in a wide range. The support of spot prices for futures needs to be observed [44]. Asphalt - Asphalt will follow the trend of crude oil. It is in the seasonal demand peak, and the inventory is decreasing [45]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester products are expected to be weak in the short - term, but the downward space may narrow after continuous processing - fee compression [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG is expected to have limited upside potential in the long - term due to abundant supply. A short - term long - term bearish view is maintained [47]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to take a long position or sell put options with caution based on the production cost line in the short - term [48]. Pulp - Observe the port inventory reduction and spot trading situation in the short - term [49]. Logs - Observe the implementation of price - holding measures and downstream orders in the peak season. Consider taking a long position on dips with caution [50]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to be weak and range - bound due to weak domestic demand and increasing production [50]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be range - bound with limited upside and downside. Avoid chasing short positions during sharp declines [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dot - plot of the Fed's recent FOMC meeting shows significant divergence. Excluding the view of the new governor Milan, the rest expect one more rate cut this year. However, given the current weak employment and stable inflation in the US, there is still a high probability of two more rate cuts this year. Copper prices have corrected due to the short - term exhaustion of positive factors, but the downside is limited. In the future, copper prices will remain strong under the expectation of loose liquidity. After the correction, downstream demand has improved, supporting copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, economic resilience and the pace of rate cuts will continue to drive copper prices upwards. In the short - term, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels. The strategy for unilateral trading is high - level oscillation, and for options, it is to sell out - of - the - money put options. Variables include worse - than - expected US economic performance, changes in rate - cut expectations, and weakening demand [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review 3.1.1 Weekly Data - **Supply - side**: - The spot TC of copper concentrate increased from - 41.3 to - 40.8 dollars/ton, a 1.21% increase. The supply of ore remains tight as the Grasberg copper mine is still shut down, and the spot market trading is inactive [7]. - The refined - scrap spread rose from 1734 to 1917 yuan/ton, a 10.55% increase. After the Fed's rate cut and Powell's unexpectedly hawkish remarks, the market's optimistic sentiment cooled, copper prices corrected at high levels, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [7]. - The southern copper anode processing fee remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The shortage of recycled copper raw materials and the continuous losses of recycled copper rod enterprises led some to switch to anode plate production, supporting the processing fee [7]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased from 68% to 71%, a 4.74% increase. The correction of copper prices at high levels increased downstream purchasing willingness, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling for the National Day, leading to the rise in the operating rate [7]. - The operating rate of recycled copper rods increased from 23% to 23.7%, a 2.91% increase. After the policy discussion subsided, most enterprises in Jiangxi and Anhui were still waiting for notices. However, due to the pressure of production targets, some recycled copper rod enterprises resumed production, driving up the operating rate [7]. - The operating rate of wire and cable decreased from 68% to 66%, a 2.63% decrease. High copper prices suppressed downstream demand, but the correction of copper prices at the end of the week brought in scattered orders, and it is expected that the operating rate will pick up next week [7]. - **Inventory**: - The available days of copper concentrate port inventory increased from 6.0 to 6.2 days, a 4.59% increase [7]. - The social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased from 15.42 to 14.45 million tons, a 6.29% decrease. The decline in copper prices during the week and pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream enterprises improved demand and led to a slight reduction in social inventory [7]. - The bonded - area inventory increased from 7.27 to 7.68 million tons, a 5.64% increase. The sharp rise in copper prices at the beginning of the week closed the import parity, and weak downstream consumption led to a slowdown in the inflow and outflow of bonded - area inventory. Additionally, some domestic inventory was transferred to BC copper warehouse receipts during the BC copper 2509 contract delivery period [7]. - The total inventory of social and bonded areas decreased from 22.69 to 22.13 million tons, a 2.47% decrease [7]. - The SHFE copper inventory increased from 28.00 to 124.42 million tons, a 344.36% increase [7]. - The LME copper inventory decreased from 15.40 to 14.77 million tons, a 4.09% decrease [7]. - The COMEX copper inventory increased from 310487 to 316774 short tons, a 2.02% increase [7]. - The global total inventory increased from 62.59 to 62.83 million tons, a 0.38% increase [7]. - **Profit**: - The spot comprehensive smelting profit increased from - 4932 to - 4404 yuan/ton, a 10.71% increase. Although the TC remains low, the high sulfuric acid price has compensated for the profit, reducing the loss [7]. - The long - term contract comprehensive smelting profit increased from - 1570 to - 1072 yuan/ton, a 31.74% increase. With the realization of macro expectations, copper prices declined at high levels, the import window closed, and the import profit turned negative again [7]. - The import profit decreased from 2 to - 261 yuan/ton, a 11052.48% decrease [7]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain 3.2.1 Price, Spread, Cost, and Profit - The report presents multiple price - related data charts, including the SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract, the term structure of Shanghai copper, the price of sulfuric acid (98% smelting acid), the Shanghai - London ratio, the LME 3 - month closing price, the LME (0 - 3) premium/discount, the comprehensive profit of electrolytic copper (including by - product sulfuric acid), the spot copper import profit, the feed - processing spot export profit, and the comprehensive profit of electrolytic copper under long - term contracts [11][15][18][20]. 3.2.2 Copper Supply and Demand - **Supply**: - The report provides data on copper concentrate, including the import copper concentrate index TC, the production of Chilean and Peruvian copper concentrates, and the import volume of copper concentrate. It also shows data on recycled copper, such as the refined - scrap spread, the import profit of recycled copper, the southern copper anode processing fee, the operating rate of recycled copper rod production from scrap copper, the import volume of scrap copper, and the import volume of copper anode. In addition, data on electrolytic copper production, import volume, and total supply are presented [26][31][32]. - **Demand**: - The demand side is divided into multiple segments. For copper rods and cables, data on the operating rate of refined copper rod production, the raw material inventory of copper rod wires, the finished - product inventory ratio of copper rod wires, the operating rate of wire and cable, and the operating rate of enameled wire are provided. For power grids, data on cumulative and monthly power grid investment and power source investment are presented. For copper tubes and air - conditioners, data on the operating rate of copper tubes, the raw material inventory ratio of copper tubes, the finished - product inventory of copper tubes, the production, domestic sales, and export volume of household air - conditioners are shown. For copper strips, data on the operating rate of copper strips, the raw material inventory, and the raw material inventory ratio are presented. For the automotive sector, data on the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles are provided. For the real - estate sector, data on the operating rate of brass rods, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large cities, and the cumulative and monthly housing completion area are given [33][35][44][46][52][56]. 3.2.3 Copper Inventory - The report presents data on various copper inventories, including the social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper, the SHFE copper warehouse receipts, the COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, the LME electrolytic copper inventory, the global refined copper inventory, and the LME cancelled warrants and their proportion [61]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Positions - On September 16, the non - commercial net long position of CFTC showed an upward trend recently, with the non - commercial long - position ratio at 31.4%. The net long position of LME investment funds was 38583.07 lots, a weekly increase of 8097.36 lots [70][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectations for both monetary and fiscal policies have increased. Supported by the fundamental and capital aspects, medium - and short - term bonds may continue to strengthen [6]. - The probability of the central bank's easing is increasing, and there is a possibility of further increasing the money supply and cutting interest rates [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - **Capital Aspect**: During the week, due to tax payments, the central bank announced net reverse - repurchase injections. Capital was tight, and prices first rose and then fell. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse - repurchase operation may lead to a 10bp interest - rate cut, and there is a possibility of a rate lower than OMO + 15BP. Considering the current liquidity situation, there is a possibility of net bond purchases this month, and the probability of the central bank's easing is increasing [8]. - **Macroeconomic Data and Logic**: In August, domestic macroeconomic data continued to decline and were below expectations. The reasons include the economic cycle's downward inertia and the complexity of anti - involution. The unemployment rate has rebounded for two consecutive months, and the pressure of stabilizing growth is increasing. Monetary policy may be the first to be strengthened, with a high probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases in September and a 10bp interest - rate cut in the fourth quarter [8]. - **View and Strategy**: The released macroeconomic data was weak, increasing the probability of the central bank's interest - rate cut. The market was mainly affected by bond - buying and fiscal stimulus expectations. Bonds with maturities of less than 10 years showed strong performance, while ultra - long - term bonds were weak. The strategy is to consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the long - term and to buy bonds on dips [8]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Capital Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - The yield of Chinese bonds fluctuated, the yield of US bonds rebounded, and the US dollar index first declined and then rebounded. US stocks continued to rise, while A - shares slightly declined. Commodities first rose and then fell and continued to fluctuate. The European container shipping line continued to weaken [10]. 3.3 Recent Macroeconomic Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - **Domestic Data**: In August, China's social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment all declined year - on - year. The unemployment rate rose to 5.3%. The decline in real - estate prices continued, and the decline in second - hand housing prices widened [18]. - **US Data**: In August, the US new - home construction annualized total decreased, and the retail sales and industrial output growth rates were lower than expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and the economic forecast maintained the judgment of a soft landing, with inflation falling more slowly and the economy remaining resilient [18][19]. 3.4 Capital Aspect Analysis and Bond Futures and Spot Index Monitoring (P14 - 24) - **Open - Market Operations**: During the week, the central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase injections. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse - repurchase operation is expected to make liquidity management more flexible and further clarify the policy - rate status of the 7 - day reverse - repurchase [31]. - **Bond Yields**: The yields of Chinese bonds of different maturities showed different degrees of changes. The yields of 1 - year, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Chinese bonds had different weekly changes, and the term spreads also changed [40]. - **Bond Futures**: The prices and positions of bond futures contracts such as TL.CFE, T.CFE, TF.CFE, and TS.CFE changed during the week [45]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamental, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Index Monitoring (P25 - 27) - **Micro - Liquidity**: The trading volume proportion of broad - based indexes and the market trading volume, as well as the margin trading balance, showed certain trends. The trading volume of north - bound and south - bound funds also changed [92][94][97]. 3.6 Macroeconomic Medium - Term Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P28 - 46) - **Domestic Economy**: The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size showed signs of improvement, and the PMI data rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The construction industry was weak, and the service industry was affected by the summer season [26]. - **Overseas Economy**: The US Q2 real GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.3%, and the core PCE inflation increased slightly year - on - year. The market's bet on the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut in September reached 86.5% [26]. 3.7 Macroeconomic Long - Wave Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P47 - 48) No detailed content provided for this part.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the offset printing paper market, including supply, demand, inventory, cost, price, and spreads. It indicates that the market is in a slow and slightly increasing trend in production, with stable demand during the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and prices are likely to fluctuate or slightly decline. The production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner. For the market, it is recommended to hold the spot and make rigid - demand transactions, and consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [9][12][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Domestic weekly production was 20.90 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.40 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.00 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 56.70%, up 1.00% week - on - week and down 3.50% year - on - year. Monthly imports were 1.19 million tons, down 0.29 million tons month - on - month and 0.53 million tons year - on - year. Weekly apparent demand was 19.20 million tons, up 2.10 million tons week - on - week. Monthly exports were 6.25 million tons, down 0.39 million tons month - on - month and 1.66 million tons year - on - year. Domestic demand was 83.31 million tons, up 2.32 million tons month - on - month and down 1.12 million tons year - on - year. Enterprise inventory and total spot inventory were on an upward trend, and it was expected that the inventory would accumulate with the increase in production and stable demand [10]. - **Price**: Factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed a slight increase. It was expected that the offset printing paper prices would fluctuate or slightly decline, and the futures prices would mainly fluctuate [12]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between factory delivery and self - pick - up prices were stable, and the futures spreads and basis were expected to remain stable or slightly decline. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching - aid textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material costs were expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner due to the limited increase in finished product prices during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the industrial chain, the spot market was stable, and transactions were based on rigid demand during the off - season. It was recommended to consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [18]. 3.2 Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly import, production, supply, demand, supply - demand gap, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of offset printing paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume showed a certain change trend, and the production, supply, and demand also had different degrees of year - on - year changes. The inventory generally showed an upward trend compared to 2024 [20]. 3.3 Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, many paper mills had production plans. A total of 1.4 million tons of production capacity had been put into operation, and 2.25 million tons were expected to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter, including the resumption of Chenming's production. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation was 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [22]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Import - Export**: No detailed data or analysis content other than the overview part was provided in the given text. 3.4 Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The raw material costs of different types of pulp, such as U - needle, Moon, and Goldfish, were at relatively low levels, and it was expected that the cost would have limited downward space [16]. - **Profit**: The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner, with the profit of self - used pulp and low - cost production showing a downward trend [16]. 3.5 Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The spot quotations of different brands of offset printing paper remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Futures - Spot Basis and Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread of OP Main Contract**: The basis was expected to remain stable or slightly decline, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread analysis showed that January and March had certain seasonal characteristics [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pulp supply is expected to increase as there are no short - term shutdown and maintenance plans from pulp mills, and Chenming is operating at full capacity, with the output of broad - leaf pulp expected to rise gradually. Although the overseas pulp shipment volume did not significantly shrink from June to August, the arrival volume in China decreased by about 200,000 tons in August, and some shipments may arrive in September [7][8]. - The downstream pulp demand is stable. New production capacities are being put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable output, gradually decreasing operating rates, and fluctuating inventories. The demand for household paper and white cardboard is entering the peak season, but the demand has not yet picked up [9][10]. - The pulp price shows a fluctuating and weak trend. The spot price is supported, but the futures price is affected by factors such as capital and old warehouse receipts, showing a fluctuating and weak trend. The prices of household paper and white cardboard are expected to rise as they enter the peak season, while the price of offset paper continues to decline during the off - season [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - **Domestic Production**: The output of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemi - mechanical pulp increased in the week of September 19, 2025. There are no short - term shutdown and maintenance plans from pulp mills, and the output of broad - leaf pulp is expected to rise [7][8]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's pulp import volume was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 24.108 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The overseas shipment volume from June to August did not significantly shrink, but the arrival volume in China decreased in August, and some shipments may arrive in September [8]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - **Demand**: The downstream production of household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard was stable this week. The new production capacities are being put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable output, gradually decreasing operating rates, and fluctuating inventories. The demand for household paper and white cardboard is entering the peak season, but the demand has not yet picked up [9][10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is expected to show a fluctuating and accumulating trend as the arrival volume increases and the demand remains stable. The warehouse receipt inventory is stable and shows a slight decreasing trend. The low price has led to insufficient new warehouse receipt registrations, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. The downstream inventory tends to fluctuate and accumulate [10]. 1.3 Price and Spread - **Prices**: The overseas offer prices of silver star and goldfish remained unchanged this week, while the spot prices of some pulp varieties increased slightly. The futures price shows a fluctuating and weak trend, affected by factors such as capital and old warehouse receipts. The prices of household paper and white cardboard are expected to rise as they enter the peak season, while the price of offset paper continues to decline during the off - season [11][12]. - **Spreads**: The needle - broad spread is expected to narrow, but the range is still limited. The futures spread shows a weakening trend, and the basis has strengthened this week [12]. 1.4 Strategy Recommendation - The spot offer price of the industrial chain is stable. From the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts in the 09 contract, the actual digestion of old warehouse receipts is limited, and the intention to resell is strong. At the same time, the macro and market sentiment is poor, and the 11 contract is under pressure and increasing positions. In the short term, it is recommended to observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and the spot transaction situation [16]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a detailed pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including supply (imports, domestic production), demand (pulp consumption, other demand), and inventory (warehouse receipt inventory, port inventory) data, as well as their year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [19]. Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. - **Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: - **Pulp Imports**: The report provides data on China's pulp imports from 2022 to 2025, including the import volume and cumulative import volume of bleached softwood pulp, bleached hardwood pulp, chemi - mechanical pulp, and other varieties, as well as their year - on - year changes [39][44][49]. - **Pulp Imports by Country**: The report provides data on the import volume and cumulative import volume of bleached softwood pulp from different countries (Russia, Chile, Canada, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, as well as their year - on - year changes [52][64][69]. - **Import of Wood Chips**: The report provides data on the import volume and cumulative import volume of coniferous and broad - leaf wood chips from 2022 to 2025, as well as their year - on - year changes [82][83][84]. - **Demand - side**: - **Pulp Apparent Demand**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. - **Analysis of Downstream Finished Paper**: The report provides information on the production, supply, demand, and inventory of downstream finished paper (household paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), as well as the planned production capacity and production time of new projects [93][109]. - **Inventory - side**: - **Total Pulp Inventory**: The report provides data on China's total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory from 2022 to 2025 [156][157][158]. - **Inventory by Port**: The report provides data on the weekly inventory of pulp in different ports (Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Changshu Port, etc.) from 2022 to 2025 [163][164][166]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Pulp Import Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on the import cost and profit of pulp from 2022 to 2025 [173]. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on the production cost and profit of domestic pulp from 2022 to 2025 [176]. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **Pulp Overseas Offer Prices**: The report provides the seasonal price data of silver star, Russian needle, goldfish, etc. from 2022 to 2025 [181][186][187]. - **Price Spreads**: The report provides the seasonal spread data of silver star - goldfish, Russian needle - goldfish, etc. from 2022 to 2025 [189][190]. - **Basis**: The report provides the basis data of silver star - main contract, Russian needle - main contract from 2022 to 2025 [192][193][196]. - **SP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread**: The report provides the seasonal chart and inter - month spread data of the SP main contract from 2022 to 2025 [200].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for various sectors and commodities: - **Macro Finance**: Consider buying index futures on dips and adopting a shock - trading strategy; for bond futures, consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the medium - to - long term and buying bonds on dips [12][13]. - **Black Metals**: For steel, it is recommended to wait and see; hold a small short position in iron ore; expect coking coal and coke prices to fluctuate upward in the short term; for ferroalloys, take a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium - to - long term; for soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies, and for glass, wait and see [16][18][19]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For aluminum, wait and see in the short term and consider buying on dips later; for alumina, sell on rallies; for zinc, expect prices to weaken; for lithium carbonate, it will fluctuate widely in the short term; for industrial silicon, test long positions on dips in the far - month contracts, and for polysilicon, trade within a wide range [23][24][25]. - **Agricultural Products**: For cotton, sell on rallies; for sugar, cover short positions opportunistically; for eggs, sell on rallies; for apples, wait and see; for corn, wait and see and focus on the new grain listing rhythm; for red dates, sell on rallies; for live pigs, take a short - selling approach on rallies in the near - month contracts [31][33][36]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For crude oil, consider short - selling on rallies; for fuel oil, its price will follow oil price fluctuations; for plastics, expect a slightly stronger shock in the short term and then a short - selling strategy; for rubber, hold positions cautiously; for methanol, trade with a shock strategy; for asphalt, follow oil prices; for the polyester industry chain, test long positions in the short term but expect a weak trend in the long term; for LPG, maintain a short - selling view in the long term [42][44][47]. - **Forestry Products**: For offset printing paper, test long positions or sell put options near the factory production cost line; for pulp, observe port de - stocking and spot trading; for logs, test long positions on dips if the price - holding is effective; for synthetic rubber, hold positions cautiously [52][53][54]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the macro - economic situation, including the Fed's interest rate cut, China's service consumption policies, and the release of relevant industrial standards. It also provides investment strategies and market outlooks for different sectors and commodities based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [8][9][16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, with over 90% probability of another cut in October. Employment risks have increased, and inflation is slightly high [8]. - China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption scenarios, introduce relevant policies, promote AI application, and use monetary policy tools to boost consumption. During the consumption month, over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities will be held, and over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued [8]. - Alibaba's self - developed AI chip was featured on CCTV, with some parameters comparable to NVIDIA's H20 chip [9]. - New national standards for polysilicon energy consumption will be implemented, reducing effective domestic polysilicon capacity by 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 [9]. - A symposium on pig production capacity regulation was held, emphasizing the control of sow capacity [9]. - From September 1 - 14, national passenger car retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 6%, with a penetration rate of 59.8% [10]. - Huawei released a report, predicting that AGI will be the most transformative force in the next decade, and the total computing power will increase by 100,000 times [10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3876.34, with A - share trading volume increasing to 2.4 trillion yuan. The market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [12]. Bond Futures - The tax - period liquidity is tight, and it is recommended to steepen the yield curve in the medium - to - long term and buy bonds on dips, expecting the central bank to restart bond purchases in September and cut interest rates by 10bp in the fourth quarter [13][14]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy impact on supply is limited. The peak season may not bring expected demand, and steel is expected to be slightly strong in the short term and volatile later. Hold a small short position in iron ore [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may fluctuate upward in the short term, and attention should be paid to production progress and inventory levels [18]. Ferroalloys - Take a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium - to - long term, not chasing short positions [19]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, sell on rallies; for glass, wait and see. Soda ash supply is high, and glass supply may increase slightly [20][21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, wait and see in the short term and buy on dips later; for alumina, sell on rallies due to supply pressure [23]. Zinc - Overseas macro - positive expectations have cooled, and zinc prices are expected to weaken due to increased supply and weak demand [24]. Lithium Carbonate - It is in a state of strong reality and weak expectation, with short - term price support from inventory reduction and wide - range fluctuations [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range, and test long positions on dips in the far - month contracts. Polysilicon will have a wide - range shock, with policy progress driving the price [27]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Sell on rallies due to supply pressure and weak demand. New cotton listing will increase supply, and downstream demand is poor [31]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is bearish, and it is recommended to cover short positions opportunistically due to abundant supply [33]. Eggs - The egg supply is high, and it is recommended to sell on rallies as the peak season ends [36]. Apples - Wait and see as the new - season opening price is expected to be high, and the market is affected by multiple factors [37]. Corn - Wait and see and focus on the new grain listing rhythm, with prices showing a regional differentiation [38]. Red Dates - Sell on rallies, with stable prices in the production area and weak sales in the sales area [39]. Live Pigs - The supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the near - month contracts [39]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Consider short - selling on rallies as the market may shift to a supply - surplus situation, and pay attention to OPEC+ and geopolitical factors [42]. Fuel Oil - Its price will follow oil price fluctuations, with a complex market situation and supply - demand issues [42]. Plastics - Expect a slightly stronger shock in the short term and then a short - selling strategy due to supply pressure and market sentiment [44]. Rubber - Hold positions cautiously, with cost support weakening and demand remaining stable [46]. Methanol - Trade with a shock strategy, as port inventory is high, but there may be supply disruptions [47]. Asphalt - Follow oil prices, with seasonal demand increasing and inventory decreasing [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - Test long positions in the short term but expect a weak trend in the long term due to supply - demand pressure [49]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - It is in a supply - surplus situation, and maintain a short - selling view in the long term, with short - term price support from peak - season stocking [50][51]. Forestry Products Offset Printing Paper - Test long positions or sell put options near the factory production cost line, with stable fundamentals [52]. Pulp - Observe port de - stocking and spot trading, with stable production data [53]. Logs - Test long positions on dips if the price - holding is effective, with stable downstream demand [54]. Synthetic Rubber - Hold positions cautiously, with prices affected by macro factors and supply - demand [55].

Report Title - "LPG Weekly Report: Peak Season Stockpiling Arrives, LPG Strengthens Relatively" [1] Report Date - September 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - LPG has shown strong recent performance, with the international market entering the peak - season stockpiling phase, and its price is relatively firm compared to crude oil [5]. - OPEC+ is further increasing crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, the US and Iran, and the US and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the fact that LPG supply remains abundant [5]. - In the demand side, the peak season of the blending market is coming to an end, and the operating rate is difficult to maintain at a high level, so the chemical demand may weaken. However, the profit of PDH has been significantly repaired, which may support the subsequent operating rate [5]. - Overall, LPG supply is very abundant. The CP price is relatively strong in the short - term due to peak - season stockpiling, but will follow the oil price in the long - term. With high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, the upside potential of LPG is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long - term [5]. Key Strategy Recommendation - Futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices [6] Summary by Directory PART 01: LPG Market Review - **Market Trend**: The domestic LPG market showed a volatile trend. In the civil gas market, the supply of domestic gas increased slightly, with limited negative impact on the market. In Shandong, prices declined due to the concentrated arrival of imported gas. The combustion demand was still weak, and downstream customers were cautious about high prices while digesting inventory, leading to price drops in some enterprises in Central China. In other regions, the supply - demand situation was good, and prices rose slightly. In the olefin C4 market, despite the increase in international crude oil prices, the poor terminal oil product demand led to a decline in component raw material prices. Downstream device profits continued to be in the red, and with decreased chemical demand and increased supply, the relaxed supply - demand situation pressured the market [5]. - **CP Price**: The expected average price of propane CP is $545 per ton, up $14 per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.64%. The expected average price of butane CP is $525 per ton, up $14 per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.74% [5]. PART 02: LPG Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Domestic**: Data on the operating rate of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profit of major refineries, and domestic LPG production volume are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [11]. - **Supply - Import**: Data on LPG arrival volume in China, import trade profit margin in South China, monthly total import volume in China, import volume from different countries, and shipping freight rates from the Arabian Gulf region and the US Gulf Coast to the Far East are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [14][15][17][19] - **Inventory**: Data on LPG port inventory in China, refinery storage capacity ratio in China, port storage capacity ratio in China, factory - level inventory in China, and sales - to - production ratios in South China, East China, and Shandong are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [22][24] - **Demand - PDH**: Data on the operating rate of PDH plants in China, production profit margin of PDH in China, production profit margin of MTBE's isomerization etherification in Shandong, capacity utilization rate of MTBE export factories in China, capacity utilization rate of alkylated oil in China, and production profit margin of alkylated oil in Shandong are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data - **Import Cost**: Data on CP contract prices of propane and butane, CP crude oil price trends, and spot prices of propane (frozen cargo) in South China are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [36] - **Spot**: Data on ex - factory prices of civil LPG from Guangzhou Petrochemical, Shanghai Gaoqiao, and Jinan Refinery are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [39][40] PART 04: LPG Other Data - **LPG Spread**: Data on the basis of the LPG main contract and the spread between the first - and second - month contracts are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [45] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the registered warehouse receipts of major LPG delivery warehouses are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyethylene market is currently in a state of weakening market sentiment and a downward - trending market. The overall market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with suggestions to sell call options [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - This week's polyethylene production decreased, with domestic production dropping from 63.25 million tons last week to 61.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.97 million tons. Next week, production may slightly increase as some devices resume production after maintenance. Import and export volumes remained stable this week, with imports at 25.68 million tons and exports at 2.50 million tons. Apparent demand decreased significantly from 84.20 million tons last week to 80.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.34 million tons. There was a slight inventory build - up this week, with total inventory rising from 101.13 million tons to 104.73 million tons, and it is expected to continue to build up slightly next week [5]. 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - In terms of production, although there are many upstream maintenance devices, the current output is still relatively high, and the upstream supply of goods is relatively sufficient. In 2025, new production capacity will continue to be released, such as the production capacity of Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Exxon (Huizhou), etc. [7][20]. 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - Raw material prices are in a weakening state. Crude oil prices fluctuated, rising from $65.50 last week to $66.37, and coal prices decreased from 690 to 681. PE costs have been fluctuating recently, with oil - made PE costs rising from 7803 to 7868, and coal - made PE costs remaining unchanged at 6669. Upstream profits are expected to weaken next week, with oil - chemical comprehensive profits dropping from - 1595 to - 1644, and weighted profits of PE by production capacity dropping from - 654 to - 697 [6]. 3.2.3 Market Conditions of Up, Middle, and Downstream - Upstream: Although there are many maintenance devices, the output is still high, and the upstream is actively selling goods. - Middle - stream: The middle - stream's sales situation has deteriorated, with fewer purchases from downstream and active sales by spot - futures arbitrageurs. - Downstream: This week's trading volume was average, with downstream mainly purchasing as needed. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, which provides some support [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - The PE spot market price fluctuated weakly, and the intraday basis quotes fluctuated. On Friday, the North China basis quote was around 01 - 50, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average. The inter - month spread was in a state of fluctuation, and the far - month LL - PP spread is recommended to be temporarily observed. The import profit has deteriorated [49][6]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Strategy: In terms of trading strategies, a weak and volatile trend is expected in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell call options [7].