Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The tungsten price is expected to continue rising due to tightening supply and strategic pricing, with a significant increase in tungsten concentrate prices reported at 336,000 RMB/ton, up 135% year-to-date [3]. - The hard alloy tool industry has seen multiple price adjustments in 2025, with the latest round in November being the third this year, driven by rising raw material costs [3]. - The October tool price index showed a continued upward trend, with the index reaching 115.01 points, reflecting a 0.67% month-on-month increase, driven by strong demand from the new energy vehicle sector [3]. - Q3 results for tool manufacturers indicate a recovery in profits, with companies like Huari Precision and Oke Yi reporting significant year-on-year revenue and profit growth [3]. - The industry is expected to see a shift towards larger firms as smaller manufacturers face challenges due to rising raw material costs and cash payment requirements [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with a notable reduction in mining quotas for 2025 and export controls from China contributing to price increases [3]. - Demand remains cautious but is supported by downstream essential needs, particularly in the precision machining sector [3]. Price Adjustments and Market Trends - The hard alloy tool industry has undergone three rounds of price adjustments in 2025, with the latest adjustments reflecting a broader industry trend rather than isolated incidents [3]. - The October tool price index indicates that cutting tools are a primary driver of price increases, supported by both cost pressures and demand from the new energy vehicle industry [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - Q3 performance for key companies shows significant profit recovery, with Huari Precision achieving a 44.49% year-on-year revenue increase and a 915.62% rise in net profit [3]. - The report highlights a potential consolidation in the industry, with larger firms likely to benefit from stronger financial positions and better access to raw materials [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive outlook on the tool industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating [1]. Core Insights - The price of tungsten has been driven up by both supply constraints and strategic pricing, with a significant increase in tungsten prices observed, with 65% black tungsten ore priced at 336,000 CNY per ton, up 135% from the beginning of the year [3]. - Tool manufacturers have implemented multiple price adjustments throughout the year due to rising raw material costs, with the latest adjustment being the third round in November [3]. - The tool price index continued to rise in October, driven by demand from the new energy vehicle industry and high raw material prices, with the tool price index reaching 115.01 points, a month-on-month increase of 0.67% [3]. - The profitability of tool companies has improved in Q3, with significant revenue and profit growth reported by companies such as Huari Precision and Oke Yi [3]. - The industry landscape is expected to improve as smaller manufacturers may be forced out due to rising raw material costs, benefiting larger companies with stronger financial capabilities [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with mining quotas significantly reduced for 2025, and export controls on strategic metals by China contributing to price increases [3]. - Demand remains cautious but is supported by downstream necessities, with the market showing a stable upward trend in tungsten prices [3]. Price Adjustments and Market Response - Tool manufacturers have raised prices multiple times this year, indicating a broader industry trend rather than isolated incidents [3]. - The October tool price index reflects strong performance, particularly in cutting tools, driven by both cost and demand factors [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - Q3 results show a recovery in profits for tool manufacturers, with notable revenue increases reported [3]. - The ongoing rise in raw material prices may lead to a consolidation in the industry, favoring larger firms with better resource management [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Focus on companies such as Huari Precision, Oke Yi, Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, World, and New Sharp [3].

Core Insights - Alibaba's FY2Q26 revenue reached 247.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Excluding disposed business revenues, the same-caliber revenue growth was 15%. Adjusted EBITA decreased by 78% to 9.1 billion RMB, while Non-GAAP net profit fell by 72% to 10.4 billion RMB, meeting expectations [4][11]. - The strategic focus has shifted from platform economy to a comprehensive transformation towards a large consumption ecosystem, with "full-site push" and instant retail driving traffic synergy [5][11]. - Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew by 34% to 39.8 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA increasing by 35% and EBITA margin rising to 9.0%. The company continues to enhance its AI capabilities, with significant upgrades announced in September [11]. Financial Performance - The Chinese e-commerce group achieved revenue of 132.6 billion RMB in FY2Q26, a 16% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITA of 10.5 billion RMB, down 76% [5][11]. - Customer management revenue maintained a 10% growth, reaching 78.9 billion RMB in FY2Q26 [5][11]. - The international digital commerce group reported a 10% revenue increase to 34.8 billion RMB, achieving profitability with an adjusted EBITA of 1.62 billion RMB [11]. Strategic Developments - The launch of the Qianwen app has seen over 10 million downloads within a week, marking a significant step in reaching C-end users and supporting a complete AI ecosystem [11]. - The company is actively expanding its instant retail strategy, with approximately 3,500 Tmall brands integrating offline stores into the instant retail business by the end of October [5][11]. - Alibaba's focus on AI and instant retail is expected to enhance user lifecycle and customer value, driving cross-scenario traffic synergy [11]. Market Outlook - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, highlighting its dual core drivers of large consumption and technology, with a long-term moat built around its full-stack AI strategy [6][11]. - Profit forecasts for FY26-27 have been adjusted downwards to 101.9 billion RMB and 145.5 billion RMB, respectively, while the FY28 forecast has been raised to 183.6 billion RMB [6][11].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA) [4][15] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY2Q26 was RMB 247.8 billion, representing a 5% year-over-year growth, with a like-for-like growth of 15% when excluding disposed businesses [9] - The company is shifting its strategic focus from platform economy to a broader consumption ecosystem, enhancing traffic synergies through full-site promotions and instant retail [10] - Cloud business revenue grew by 34% year-over-year, with AI-related product revenue experiencing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [11] - International Digital Commerce group turned profitable with a revenue increase of 10% year-over-year, achieving an adjusted EBITA of RMB 162 million [13] - The company actively repurchased shares, spending USD 253 million to buy back 17 million common shares [14] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Alibaba are as follows: - FY24: RMB 941,168 million - FY25: RMB 996,347 million - FY26E: RMB 1,038,609 million - FY27E: RMB 1,143,436 million - FY28E: RMB 1,250,635 million - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts: - FY26E: RMB 101,943 million - FY27E: RMB 145,452 million - FY28E: RMB 183,640 million [5][18]

- The "CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index" (H11059.CSI) focuses on industrial nonferrous metals, selecting 30 large-cap securities involved in industries such as copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare earth metals to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in this theme. The index uses adjusted free-float market capitalization weighting, with individual sample weights capped at 15%, and the top five samples collectively capped at 60%[24][25][26] - The index is rebalanced semi-annually, with sample adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December[25] - The index's top five constituent stocks account for 36.57% of the total weight, while the top ten account for 54.18%, with leading companies like Northern Rare Earth, China Molybdenum, and Aluminum Corporation of China having significant weightage. This concentration enhances the index's sensitivity to price cycles and supply-demand changes in key resources like rare earths, copper, and aluminum[28][29][30] - Compared to other nonferrous metal indices, such as the CSI SW Nonferrous Metals Index, the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index has lower exposure to energy and precious metals, making it more focused on industrial metals closely tied to macroeconomic cycles. This characteristic provides higher elasticity during manufacturing recovery and economic rebound phases[30][33][34] - Over the backtesting period from January 1, 2021, to November 10, 2025, the index achieved an annualized return of 9.18%, outperforming broad-based indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index. However, it also exhibited higher annualized volatility (32.29%) and a maximum drawdown of -61%[35][39][40] - The index's valuation (PE_TTM) has shown a downward trend over the past five years, with a recent recovery driven by market sentiment and sector rebound. As of November 10, 2025, the index's PE ratio stood at 20.41x, at the 68.56th percentile of its five-year valuation range, indicating reasonable investment value amid improving industry fundamentals[41][43][44] - The index's profit scale has grown significantly, with total profits increasing from 46.139 billion yuan in 2020 to 168.052 billion yuan in 2022, representing a compound growth rate of over 90%. After a temporary decline in 2023, profits rebounded in 2024 with a 19.05% year-on-year growth, and further growth is expected in 2025 and 2026[45][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company showcased its "three-in-one" IWM lithium battery welding solution at the 15th High-tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference, emphasizing a "data-driven welding" innovation concept that aims to enhance the quality of battery manufacturing [6]. - The company is addressing industry pain points in lithium battery manufacturing, specifically in laser welding, by implementing a closed-loop system that transitions from "experience-based welding" to "data-driven welding," thereby improving production efficiency and reducing defect rates [6]. - The company is expected to experience rapid growth in its precision business due to the expansion of downstream applications in new energy sectors and continuous product integration [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1,735 million yuan in 2024 to 3,377 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24% [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 883 million yuan in 2024 to 1,760 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 24.3% [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 4.30 yuan in 2024 to 6.10 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][7]. - The company maintains a high gross margin, projected at around 79% for the forecast period [5]. Business Development - The company is continuously optimizing its core technologies, including CAD, CAM, and NC, while exploring new application directions to achieve high-precision multi-axis motion control [6]. - The laser cutting business is anticipated to maintain rapid growth driven by increased penetration rates, power upgrades, and overseas exports [6].

2025 年 11 月 26 日 长信量化团队立足深度基本面量 化，产品提供差异化配置价值 权 益 量 化 研 究 相关研究 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 长信量化团队梯队建设完备，成员具备深厚的多学科专业背景。团队成立于 2008 年，是 公募行业较早布局量化投资的团队之一，现有成员平均从业年限达 12.8 年，经历了多轮 市场周期考验，成员专业背景覆盖金融工程、数学、计算机等领域。 ⚫ 长信量化构建系统化的投研体系，追求可持续的管理方案。团队立足深度基本面量化，核 心运用多因子 Alpha 模型预测收益，并结合风险模型与交易成本模型进行组合优化。通 过涵盖因子构建、收益预测到绩效归因的完整投研闭环，旨在在严格的风险约束下，实现 可解释、可复制且长期可持续的超额回报。 ⚫ 长信量化产品布局全面，构建了多元产品矩阵。团队产品线涵盖宽基指数增强、行业量化 及主动量化三大类，是业内布局最齐全 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company showcased its "three-in-one" IWM lithium battery welding solution at the 15th High-tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference, emphasizing a "data-driven welding" innovation concept to enhance the quality of battery manufacturing [6] - The company aims to address industry pain points in lithium battery manufacturing, specifically in laser welding, by implementing a closed-loop system that transitions from "experience-based welding" to "data-driven welding," thereby improving production efficiency and reducing defect rates [8] - The company is continuously optimizing its core technologies and exploring new application directions, with expectations for rapid growth in its precision business due to the expansion of downstream applications in new energy [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21.80 billion, 27.24 billion, and 33.77 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 25.0%, and 24.0% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 11.13 billion, 14.16 billion, and 17.60 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 26.1%, 27.2%, and 24.3% [8] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 79% and a return on equity (ROE) projected to increase from 16.9% in 2025 to 18.0% in 2027 [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market maintains a low - interest - rate environment, enhancing the allocation value of stable assets. The dividend growth low - volatility strategy combines high dividends, profit growth, and price stability, achieving good long - term performance [3][8]. - The dividend growth low - volatility index outperforms other Smart Beta strategies. Since 2020, the three - factor Smart Beta strategy composed of dividend, growth, and low - volatility has significantly better returns than the two - factor strategies [14]. - The dividend yield is at a historical high, and against the low - interest - rate backdrop, the value of dividend allocation is further increased. The Hong Kong stock market has low valuations, and dual - market diversified allocation is advisable [21][24]. - The CSI SH - HK - SZ Dividend Growth Low Volatility Index selects high - quality low - volatility target enterprises in both the A - share and H - share markets, with stable long - term performance and high investment value [26][42]. - The Invesco Great Wall CSI SH - HK - SZ Dividend Growth Low Volatility Index Fund closely tracks the index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error and obtain returns similar to the target index [58][59]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Maintains Low - Interest - Rate Environment, and the Allocation Value of Stable Assets Increases 1.1 Dividend Growth Low - Volatility Strategy: Emphasizing High Dividends, Profit Growth, and Low Volatility, a Stable Investment Strategy under Policy Promotion - The dividend growth low - volatility strategy combines high dividend yields, profit - growth capabilities, and price stability, enabling stable medium - to - long - term returns while controlling risks [8]. - Since the end of 2022, regulatory policies on listed - company cash dividends have intensified, enhancing the attractiveness of high - dividend assets and the effectiveness of the high - dividend strategy [11][12]. 1.2 Long - Term Returns Lead Similar Smart Beta Strategies - The dividend growth low - volatility index outperforms other Smart Beta strategies. Since 2020, the annualized returns of the dividend growth low - volatility and SHS dividend growth low - volatility indices have been 11.83% and 11.18% respectively, significantly better than the two - factor indices [14]. - The three - factor strategy performs well in various market conditions. It has better defense in volatile and downward markets and can achieve high growth in upward markets [17]. 1.3 Dividend Yield at a Historical High, and the Value of Dividend Allocation Further Increases under Low - Interest - Rate Conditions - As of November 21, 2025, the difference between the dividend yield of the SH - HK - SZ Dividend Growth Low Volatility Index (in the past 12 months) and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is at a historical high, with the index's dividend yield at 4.6075% and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield at 1.8207%, and the spread at 2.7868% [21]. - In the context of falling long - term interest rates, dividend - type assets have the property of bonds, helping to hedge against interest - rate risks and having increased allocation value [21]. 1.4 Hong Kong Stocks Have Low Valuations, Are Attractive, and Allow for Dual - Market Diversified Allocation - The Hong Kong stock market has been under pressure in recent years, with valuations in a low range globally. Against the backdrop of improving macro - environment, policy support, and the restoration of Chinese enterprises' profitability, the long - term allocation value of Hong Kong stocks is emerging [24]. 2. CSI SH - HK - SZ Dividend Growth Low Volatility Index: A Multi - Layered Selection of High - Quality Enterprises Combining Dividends and Growth in the A - share and H - share Markets 2.1 Considering Both Markets and Selecting High - Quality Low - Volatility Target Enterprises with Dividends and Profit Growth - Issued by CSI Index Co., Ltd., the index selects 100 securities with continuous cash dividends, stable profit growth, and low - volatility characteristics from the mainland and Hong Kong markets to reflect the overall performance of such listed - company securities [26]. - The index conducts six - layer screening on the sample space from multiple perspectives such as liquidity, dividends, profit growth, and low - volatility, and uses expected dividend - yield weighting, with sample adjustments made semi - annually [28]. 2.2 Concentrated Industry and Market - Value Distribution, Demonstrating Professionalism and Focus Value of Industry Selection - The index's A - share holdings are mainly concentrated in the banking sector, and other sectors with relatively high holdings include pharmaceutical biology, machinery and equipment, and transportation. The H - share holdings also have a high proportion of banks. The total weight of bank stocks in the current holdings is as high as 40.66% [35]. - The index's performance is not dependent on specific industries or periods. It can adjust in a timely manner according to market data, making it a long - term effective and stable investment method [37]. 2.3 Stable Long - Term Performance and Outperforming Similar Dividend Indices This Year - From the base period on November 14, 2019, to November 21, 2025, the cumulative return of the SH - HK - SZ Dividend Growth Low Volatility Index was 289.42%, with an annualized return of 13.12%. Since 2019, the index has shown a long - term stable upward trend [42]. - In the past three years, the index has outperformed similar dividend - themed indices, especially since the "924" market. As of 2022, the average annual return of 15.66% ranks among the top of similar indices, with an annualized volatility of 14.43% and a maximum drawdown of only 14.17%, and a Sharpe ratio as high as 0.96, indicating high investment value [47][50]. 2.4 Low Valuation + High Dividend, with Dividend Yield Significantly Exceeding Mainstream Dividend Indices - As of July 28, 2025, the index's PE (TTM) is 8.31 times, and PB is 0.87 times, which are around the historical average since the base date of 2019. The current valuation is relatively reasonable, and there is room for the index to rise [52]. - As of September 30, 2025, the dividend yield of the SHS Dividend Growth Low Volatility Index is 4.86%, leading the dividend yields of the Shanghai Dividend Index, CSI Dividend Index, Dividend Low - Volatility Index, and Hang Seng Index, showing investment value in the field of dividend investment [55]. 3. Invesco Great Wall SH - HK - SZ Dividend Growth Low Volatility Index (007751) - The Invesco Great Wall CSI SH - HK - SZ Dividend Growth Low Volatility Index Fund, established on September 6, 2019, is currently managed by Mr. Zeng Li. The management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.15% [58][59]. - The fund closely tracks the CSI SH - HK - SZ Dividend Growth Low Volatility Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error. It is the only ETF product in the market that tracks this index [59]. - Since its establishment, the fund has maintained positive returns except in 2020. The tracking error has been continuously decreasing, with the tracking error in 2025 relative to the benchmark date being only 0.0893%, indicating the strengthening of the product's tracking ability for the benchmark index [61]. 4. Fund Manager Information - Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., Ltd. was established on June 12, 2003, and is the first Sino - US joint - venture fund management company in China approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. As of November 24, 2025, it manages 22 passive index - type ETFs, with a total scale of approximately 7.1068 billion yuan [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO (MNSO) [1][10] Core Insights - MINISO reported strong revenue growth in 3Q25, achieving Rmb5.80 billion, which is above consensus estimates of Rmb5.64 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.2% [4][10] - The company's gross margin remained stable at 44.7%, with an adjusted EBITDA of Rmb1.35 billion, up 18.8% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of Rmb770 million, which was below consensus expectations [4][7] - Domestic same-store sales (SSS) growth is accelerating, with the MINISO brand generating Rmb5.22 billion in revenue, a 22.9% increase year-on-year, driven by accelerated store openings and improved sales performance [5][10] - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with 3,424 overseas stores by the end of 3Q25, marking a net increase of 117 stores quarter-on-quarter [6][10] - MINISO is innovating its store formats, launching MINISO LAND and MINISO FRIENDS concepts, which are expected to attract a broader customer base and enhance sales [9][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for MINISO are as follows: - 2023: Rmb13,839 million - 2024: Rmb16,994 million - 2025E: Rmb21,330 million - 2026E: Rmb24,804 million - 2027E: Rmb28,448 million - The expected growth rates are 39.4% for 2023, 22.8% for 2024, and 25.5% for 2025 [2][3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts have been slightly lowered to Rmb2.83 billion for FY25E, Rmb3.38 billion for FY26E, and Rmb3.98 billion for FY27E [10]