Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets. The market may perceive cyclical goods as superior to technology during the PPI recovery phase, but the report argues that foreign capital is fundamentally buying assets with improved fundamentals, focusing on ROE (Return on Equity) recovery [3][10][4] - Historical analysis shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI growth, indicating that a recovering Chinese economy leads to foreign capital inflows. During previous appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw price increases, suggesting that the RMB is likely to appreciate in 2026, prompting foreign capital to reassess Chinese assets [3][10][4] - The report forecasts that during past PPI recovery phases, both A-share and Hong Kong stock ROE have shown significant improvement, with a clear positive correlation between PPI growth and corporate profitability. It is expected that ROE for both markets will continue to improve in 2026 as PPI rises [4][10] - From the perspective of foreign capital's historical investment preferences, profitability is a crucial consideration. The report notes that changes in ROE are highly correlated with foreign ownership in various sectors, indicating that sectors with strong competitive advantages are likely to attract more foreign investment [10] - The report highlights that foreign capital has been reassessing Chinese assets in 2025, with a notable increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs. The A-H premium is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting heightened foreign interest in core assets listed in Hong Kong [10] - The report identifies several sectors in Hong Kong that are expected to see ROE improvements in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI industry core assets), and cyclical sectors, which are anticipated to benefit from demand recovery and pricing power [10] - The report also notes that domestic capital has room to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with significant portions of public funds allocated to Hong Kong equities, indicating potential for further investment [10] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the knife industry, highlighting that rising costs and demand are driving price increases, with major manufacturers announcing price hikes due to surging tungsten prices. This trend is expected to lead to sustained performance improvements for knife companies [12][15][16] - The report indicates that the knife industry has experienced multiple rounds of price adjustments in response to raw material cost pressures, with the latest round occurring in November. The demand from the electric vehicle supply chain is providing strong support for the knife market [15][16] - The report notes that the profitability of knife manufacturers has improved significantly in Q3 2025, with companies reporting substantial year-on-year revenue and profit growth, driven by earlier price increases and low-cost inventory [15][16] - The report suggests that the current market dynamics may lead to a consolidation of the industry, as smaller manufacturers face challenges due to rising raw material costs, potentially benefiting larger firms with stronger financial positions [15][16]

市公司 日研发 公司书 市场数据· | 市场数据: | 2025 年 11 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 51.30 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 58.00/27.54 | | 市净率 | 2.4 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.64 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | 35,563 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,875.26/12,875.19 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 21.63 | | 资产负债率% | 39.51 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 1.024/693 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | -年内股价与大盘对比走势： 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husi@swsresearch.com 联系人 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch ...

行 业 及 产 业 机械设备 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com 联系人 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com 告 - 证券分析师 ⚫ Google DeepMind 加大机器人布局，软硬件同步发力。DeepMind CEO Hassabis 在 采访中谈到，希望构建一个以 Gemini 为基础的通用 AI 系统，能配置各种物理形态，包 括人形、四足、轮式等；即把 Gemini 做成机器人界的安卓，他预测，AI 驱动的机器人 技术将在未来几年内迎来突破性时刻。当前机器人软硬件技术尚未解耦，软件的开发脱 离不了硬件，为此，Google DeepMind 聘请波士顿动力前 CTO Aaron Saunders 担 任硬件工程副总裁。Saunders 表示，他将致力于解决在物理世界中实现 AGI 全部潜力 的基础硬件问题。 ⚫ DeepMind 内部已启动 Gemini Robotics 项目， ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 证 券 研 究 报 告 评 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 11 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 51.30 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 58.00/27.54 | | 市净率 | 2.4 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.64 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 35,563 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,875.26/12,875.19 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 21.63 | | 资产负债率% | 39.51 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,024/693 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 11-27 12-27 01-27 02-27 03-27 04-27 05-27 06-27 07-27 08-27 09-27 10-27 11-27 杰 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets. The market may expect cyclical goods to outperform technology during the PPI recovery phase, but the report argues that foreign capital is fundamentally buying assets with improved fundamentals, focusing on ROE (Return on Equity) recovery [3][10] - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI growth, indicating that a recovering Chinese economy will attract foreign capital. During previous appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw significant gains [3][10] - The report forecasts that both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks' ROE will continue to improve alongside the recovery of PPI growth, with A-share ROE stabilizing in Q3 2025 and Hong Kong stock ROE expected to stabilize by the end of 2024 [4][10] Industry Analysis - The report identifies key sectors in Hong Kong stocks that are likely to benefit from improved ROE in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI industry chain core assets), and cyclical sectors. It highlights that Hong Kong stocks are becoming increasingly attractive compared to A-shares due to better fundamentals and valuation discounts [10] - In 2025, foreign capital has been actively reassessing Chinese assets, with a notable increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs. The report notes that the premium of A-shares over H-shares is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting heightened foreign interest in core assets listed in Hong Kong [10] - The report also mentions that domestic capital has room to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with public funds showing a growing presence in the market [10] Market Trends - The report indicates that certain sectors, such as consumer staples, have underperformed for three consecutive years and may present investment opportunities in 2026. It also notes a recent increase in short-selling activity in the new consumption sector, suggesting potential volatility [10] - The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the tool manufacturing industry due to rising raw material costs, with significant price increases observed in hard alloy tools. This trend is expected to continue as demand from the electric vehicle supply chain remains strong [15][16] - The report concludes that the tool manufacturing sector is likely to see sustained performance improvements, driven by price adjustments and recovering profit margins as companies adapt to rising costs [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [8]. Core Insights - The company has signed an agreement to acquire 100% equity of Shandong Energy Equipment Group's high-end support manufacturing company for an assessed value of 345 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its integrated layout in the equipment manufacturing sector and reduce procurement costs [6]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 104.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.59 billion yuan, down 39.15% year-on-year [8]. - The company’s coal production and sales volume increased year-on-year, while coal prices decreased. In the first three quarters of 2025, the production of commercial coal reached 135.89 million tons, up 6.94% year-on-year, and sales volume was 126.44 million tons, up 2.64% year-on-year [8]. - The company completed the acquisition of a 51% stake in Northwest Mining, which is expected to add significant coal resources and further expand production capacity [8]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected total revenue for 2025 is 144.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.2% [7]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 10.16 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 32.5% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.01 yuan, with a gross profit margin of 29.3% [7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 12.4% in 2025 [7].

Revenue Performance - In October, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue growth year-on-year was 1.8%, down from 2.4% in the previous month[6] - The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, fell significantly by 6.8 percentage points to -1.4%[14] - Revenue from the petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains decreased by 6.3, 6.6, and 6.3 percentage points respectively, resulting in year-on-year growth rates of -3.4%, -1.7%, and 1.8%[14] Profitability Analysis - Industrial enterprises' profits saw a substantial year-on-year decline of 31.3 percentage points to -8.8% in October[7] - The operating profit margin dropped by 20.9 percentage points to -6.1% compared to the previous month[34] - Profitability was negatively impacted by rising costs and other losses, with the cost rate for industrial enterprises at 85.6%, remaining at a relatively high level historically[24] Cost Structure - The cost rate for the metallurgy and consumer chains was 86.1% and 85.1%, respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and stable compared to the previous year[24] - The overall cost pressure on profits remained negative, contributing -3.2% to profit year-on-year[24] Industry-Specific Insights - Industries such as non-metallic products, rubber and plastics, and general equipment experienced significant profit declines, with respective profit growth rates falling by 2, 1.4, and 1.9 percentage points[16] - The automotive, electrical machinery, and computer communication sectors also saw notable profit declines, with contributions to overall profit dropping by 3, 2.7, and 1.5 percentage points[16] Inventory Trends - By the end of October, finished goods inventory increased by 3.7% year-on-year, up from 2.8% in the previous month[6] - Actual inventory growth, excluding price factors, was 8.2% year-on-year, indicating stability in mid and downstream inventories[45]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant transformation in the supply structure of the primary market for offshore bonds, with a notable shift from traditional city investment bonds to industry bonds, government bonds, and TMT bonds as the new mainstays [3][10] - The offshore bond market has seen a continuous expansion, with a total issuance of 1.24 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, although net financing from city investment bonds has sharply declined to only 422 million yuan [3][10] - The secondary market has experienced a decline in yields, with the 3-year offshore bond yield dropping approximately 40 basis points, outperforming domestic bonds [3][17] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the offshore bond market will continue to thrive in 2026, driven by two major changes: narrowing interest rate spreads and a shift in supply dynamics, necessitating more refined selection criteria for bonds [3][4] - The narrowing of the offshore-onshore interest rate spread has reached historical lows, with sovereign bonds at 10-25 basis points and credit bonds at 40-65 basis points, making it challenging to find excess returns [3][4] - The report emphasizes the need to explore investment opportunities in foreign government bonds and Hong Kong government bonds due to limited yield spread in domestic government bonds [3][48] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for Chinese dollar bonds, with expectations of 2-3 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, targeting a rate of 2.75-3.00% [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on investment-grade dollar bonds and short-term securities to capture certainty in returns, as the credit risk has eased but remains present [5][6] - The investment strategy for 2026 includes a focus on high-grade offshore bonds, with an emphasis on long-duration bonds for insurance companies and high-grade foreign financial bonds for public funds [5][6] Group 4 - The report outlines the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" program, which has significantly enhanced market liquidity and investor participation [29][33] - The trading volume of RMB debt instruments has reached 2.13 trillion yuan by October 2025, accounting for over 90% of the total volume in 2024, indicating a robust market activity [29][33] - The report notes that the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" has opened new channels for domestic investors to diversify their asset allocation [29][33]

Revenue Performance - In October, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue growth was 1.8%, down from 2.4% in the previous month[6] - The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, fell significantly by 6.8 percentage points to -1.4%[14] - Revenue from the petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains decreased by 6.3, 6.6, and 6.3 percentage points respectively, resulting in year-on-year changes of -3.4%, -1.7%, and 1.8%[14] Profitability Analysis - Industrial enterprises' profits dropped sharply, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3 percentage points to -8.8% in October[7] - The operating profit margin fell by 20.9 percentage points to -6.1% compared to the previous month[35] - Profit contributions from non-metallic products, rubber and plastics, and general equipment industries decreased significantly, impacting overall profits by 2, 1.4, and 1.9 percentage points respectively[16] Cost Structure - The cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.6%, remaining at a relatively high level historically, with a negative impact on profit growth of -3.2%[24] - The metallurgy and consumer chains had cost rates of 86.1% and 85.1%, respectively, indicating persistent cost pressures[24] - The agricultural and food sectors saw significant increases in cost rates, with respective month-on-month increases of 46 basis points, 31.7 basis points, and 17.5 basis points[24] Inventory Trends - By the end of October, the inventory of finished products increased by 0.9 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year[6] - Actual inventory growth, excluding price factors, was 8.2% year-on-year, indicating stable inventory levels in the mid and downstream sectors[46] Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate cost pressures gradually, but the effectiveness of these policies remains to be seen[34] - Continued monitoring of the impact of external factors, such as international oil prices and domestic industrial demand recovery, is crucial for future profitability[53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expected fair - value range of the Youchao Maqiao project is between RMB 828 million and RMB 1.039 billion, with a difference of - 16.32% to 5.05% compared to the disclosed appraisal value [2]. - After the expansion, the neutral Cap Rate of China Resources Youchao REIT in 2025 is expected to reach 3.37%, second only to Chengtou Kuanting and China Merchants Shekou Leasing. The neutral IRR is expected to be 4.8%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase compared to before the expansion [2]. - The predicted distribution yields of China Resources Youchao REIT after the expansion in 2025 and 2026 are 3.30% and 3.34% respectively, which are 4.96% and 6.50% higher than before the expansion, and 11.00% and 15.63% higher than comparable REITs [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Basic Issuance Elements - The expansion of China Resources Youchao REIT was registered and became effective on October 28, 2025. A fund - holder meeting is scheduled from November 15 to 28, 2025, to vote on matters such as the expansion, adjustment of fund management fees, and extension of the fund contract [6]. - The expansion will be sold by allotment to original holders, with a planned issuance of no more than 550 million shares, and a planned issuance scale of RMB 991.5 million to RMB 1.14 billion. The expected issuance price per share is between RMB 1.803 and RMB 2.073 [6][8]. - A negative - incentive mechanism has been added to the incentive service fee, and the upper limit of positive and negative incentives is set. When the actual net operating income is lower than the target, the corresponding amount of the basic service fee will be deducted [7]. 3.2 Introduction to Underlying Basic Assets 3.2.1 Scattered Rental Supply in Maqiao, AI Industry Drives Demand Growth - The Youchao Maqiao project is a single - building affordable rental housing project in Minhang District, Shanghai, with a total construction area of 107,230.20 square meters, which opened in March 2023 [10]. - The rental housing supply in Maqiao is mainly scattered, and community - type supply is scarce. The "Two Old and One Village" renovation during the 14th Five - Year Plan period will supply over 7,400 affordable rental housing units and 3,000 beds [12]. - The project is close to the Shanghai AI Pilot Zone and high - tech manufacturing belt. New enterprises' settlement will drive the rental demand. As of the end of 2024, the rental population in Shanghai accounted for 40% of the permanent population, and the potential demand for affordable rental housing exceeded 4.5 million units [13]. 3.2.2 Mainly One - Bedroom Units with Various Types, Rich Community Services through Government - Enterprise Collaboration - The project has 2,483 rental housing units (2,475 available for rent), mainly one - bedroom units, supplemented by two - bedroom and one - room - one - hall units. There are also dormitory units for front - line workers [16]. - The project has a short opening time, high - quality decoration, and a rich community ecosystem. It has indoor and outdoor shared spaces, commercial facilities on the ground floor, and 776 underground parking spaces [22]. - The project is close to Metro Line 5, with a bus stop at the entrance and shuttle - bus service. It has jointly built community service stations such as canteens with the government [22]. 3.2.3 Obvious Rent Advantage, Poor Commercial and Public Transport Facilities - Compared with three comparable projects within 5 kilometers, the Youchao Maqiao project has a larger housing supply. The monthly rent of its one - bedroom units is between RMB 1,500 and RMB 2,800, lower than that of comparable projects [23]. - The commercial and public - transport facilities of comparable projects are more complete. The main customer groups of the project are similar to those of comparable projects, mainly white - collar workers in surrounding industrial parks and along the subway line, and also include front - line workers due to the dormitory units [24]. 3.2.4 Backed by Well - known Real - Estate Developer China Resources Land, Leading in Apartment Management among Central Enterprises - The original equity holder of China Resources Youchao REIT is Youchao Housing Leasing (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., whose sole controlling shareholder is China Resources Land Holdings Co., Ltd. [26]. - As of the end of June 2025, Youchao Shenzhen was involved in 51 operating projects in 15 cities, with 18 reserve projects and 85,000 housing units, ranking first among central enterprises in apartment management [29]. - Due to high initial investment, Youchao Shenzhen has not yet achieved profitability. However, its gross profit margin has been increasing year by year, reaching 16.12% in the first half of 2025 [32]. 3.3 Operating Conditions of Underlying Basic Assets 3.3.1 Entered Stable Operation Stage, Profit Margin Lower than Comparable Projects - From 2022 to 2024 and the first half of 2025, the operating income of the Youchao Maqiao project increased year by year, reaching RMB 29.4424 million in the first half of 2025. The net profit turned positive in 2024 [38]. - In 2023, the net profit was negative due to low rental income during the climbing period and high costs. Since 2024, as the project entered the stable operation stage, the operating income and EBITDA increased significantly, and the net profit turned positive [38]. - From 2024 to the first half of 2025, the profit margin of China Resources Youchao REIT (expansion) was lower than the average of comparable REITs and the initial - offering assets [43]. 3.3.2 High Occupancy Rate after Climbing, Stable Rent Collection Rate above 99% - From 2023 to 2024 and the first half of 2025, the weighted average occupancy rate of the Youchao Maqiao project was 38.2%, 90.6%, and 92.9% respectively. Since 2024, the occupancy rate has been stable and above 90% [46]. - The occupancy rate of China Resources Youchao REIT (expansion) at the end of 2024 and the first half of 2025 was higher than the average of comparable REITs and the initial - offering assets [53]. - The rent collection rate of China Resources Youchao REIT (expansion) at the end of 2024 and the first half of 2025 was higher than the average of comparable REITs and the initial - offering assets [55]. 3.3.3 High Cost - Performance Rent for One - Bedroom and Dormitory Units, Decline in New - Signed Rent for One - Bedroom Units in H1 2025 - As of June 30, 2025, the average contract rent per square meter of the Youchao Maqiao project was RMB 69.80, a 37.12% discount compared to the market average [57]. - The rent of one - bedroom and dormitory units in the project has an obvious advantage compared to the surrounding area. However, the new - signed rent for all housing types in the first half of 2025 decreased by 0.32% compared to the end of 2024, especially for the main one - bedroom units [58][62]. - The rent - discount policy covers most tenants, and the total discount amount accounts for about 19% of the rent income [63]. 3.3.4 Customer Groups Targeted at Surrounding Industrial Parks, Enterprise Tenants Mainly from Research Institutions - As of June 30, 2025, the rental - area ratio of individual and enterprise tenants in the Youchao Maqiao project was 80.86% and 19.14% respectively [64]. - Among enterprise tenants, research and technology service institutions accounted for the highest proportion. The top five enterprise tenants accounted for 8.57% of the rental area and 9.41% of the rent income [64][65]. - Among individual tenants, nearly 60% work within 5 kilometers of the project. Benefiting from talent introduction, the proportion of tenants with a postgraduate degree or above is 43% [69]. 3.3.5 Continuous Optimization of Lease - Term Structure, Faster Vacancy Filling and Higher Renewal Rate - The lease terms of the Youchao Maqiao project are generally one - year. As of June 30, 2025, the average lease term was 11.45 months, and the leases with terms of 12 and 13 months accounted for 78.02% [72]. - The overall renewal rate in the first half of 2025 exceeded 40%, and the average vacancy - filling time in 2024 and the first half of 2025 was 24.92 days and 18.85 days respectively [72]. 3.4 Valuation Analysis 3.4.1 Expected Fair Value of Youchao Maqiao Project between RMB 828 million and RMB 1.039 billion - Under the neutral scenario, it is assumed that from 2025 to 2034, the rent growth rate, occupancy rate, and rent collection rate of the Youchao Maqiao project are set according to different stages [78][79][80]. - The expected fair - value range of the project is between RMB 828 million and RMB 1.039 billion, with a difference of - 16.32% to 5.05% compared to the disclosed appraisal value of RMB 989 million [99]. 3.4.2 Neutral IRR after Asset Combination is 4.8%, a 0.26 - percentage - point Increase compared to before the Expansion - Under the neutral scenario, the IRR of the Youchao Maqiao project is 5.14%, and the overall IRR after asset combination is 4.80%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase compared to before the expansion [100]. - Before the expansion, the IRR of China Resources Youchao REIT was second only to Chengtou Kuanting. After the expansion, it is higher than all affordable - rental - housing REITs [101]. 3.4.3 Capitalization Rate in 2025 after Asset Combination is 3.37%, a 0.2 - percentage - point Increase compared to before the Expansion - Under the neutral scenario, the capitalization rates of the Youchao Maqiao project in 2025 and 2026 are 3.64% and 3.71% respectively. The overall capitalization rates after asset combination are 3.37% and 3.51% respectively, with an increase of 0.20 and 0.15 percentage points compared to before the expansion [103]. - Before the expansion, the capitalization rate of China Resources Youchao REIT was at a medium level. After the expansion, it is second only to Chengtou Kuanting and China Merchants Shekou Leasing [104]. 3.4.4 Distribution Yield in 2025 after Asset Combination is 3.30%, a 5% Increase compared to before the Expansion - The expected distribution yields of the Youchao Maqiao project in 2025 and 2026 are 3.51% - 4.03% and 3.61% - 4.15% respectively. The overall expected distribution yields after asset combination are 3.30% - 3.49% and 3.34% - 3.53% respectively, with an increase of 4.96% - 11.13% and 6.50% - 12.77% compared to before the expansion [108]. - After the expansion, the predicted distribution yields of China Resources Youchao REIT in 2025 and 2026 are 11.00% - 17.54% and 15.63% - 22.44% higher than those of comparable affordable - rental - housing REITs [108].