2025 年 10 月 11 日 有效突破，最终还是要等科技引领 一 周 回 顾 展 望 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 一、中美贸易摩擦扰动再现，但别低估了市场的适应性，与 4 月 7 日的调整相比，当前指 数中枢更高，但市场学习效应也在累积。股价演绎模式类似 4 月，但幅度可能更低。下周 脉冲式调整后，不必悲观。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/10/09-25/10/11) - ⚫ 中美贸易摩擦扰动再现，周五全球风险资产普跌，风险偏好显著回落。与 4 月初中美对等 关税摩擦的市场影响比较，当前 A 股指数中枢更高，但也别低 ...

策 略 研 究 新股分析 2025 年 10 月 10 日 必贝特：拥有全球首创小分子双靶点 抑制剂 ——注册制新股纵览 20251010 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申 购 策 略 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ AHP 得分：剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算必贝特 AHP 得分为 2.02 分、2.02 分， 分别位于科创体系 AHP 模型总分 32.9%分位、36.2%分位，均处于下游偏下水平。 ⚫ 本次网下发行采取约定限售方式：A₁类限售期 9 个月、限售比例 60%，A₂类、A₃类及 B 类 限售期均为 6 个月，限售比例分别为 40%、20%、20%，对应配 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in profits for the express delivery sector driven by anti-competition policies, with an expected increase in prices leading to improved profitability for companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [5][6]. - The shipping sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly for oil tankers, with historical high freight rates observed in August and September 2025. The report anticipates continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and a release of pent-up inventory demand [5]. - The shipbuilding industry is in a phase of profit release as high-priced orders are being delivered, with a strong demand for replacing old vessels. The report notes that the implementation of the 301 policy is expected to stimulate order volumes and ship prices [5]. - The airline sector is projected to see significant improvements in operational performance due to increased capacity and a recovery in international travel, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines expected to benefit [5][6]. - The report also indicates that the highway and railway sectors are likely to maintain growth in traffic volumes, with improvements in railway freight performance anticipated due to the retraction of previous freight rate reductions [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Oil tanker freight rates reached historical highs in August and September 2025, with a projected 14% decline in VLCC market rates for Q3, while Cape-sized bulk carriers are expected to see a 19% increase in rates [5]. - The report recommends companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Merchants Heavy Industry, highlighting the strong demand and supply constraints in the sector [5]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with ongoing demand for replacing old vessels. The report suggests that the implementation of the 301 policy will positively impact order volumes and ship prices [5]. - Recommended companies include China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [5]. Airlines - The airline sector is entering a peak travel season with increased capacity and improved passenger flow. The report anticipates significant operational improvements for major airlines due to favorable external factors such as lower oil prices [5][6]. - Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key beneficiaries of this trend [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profits due to rising prices and reduced competition. The report notes a 12.3% year-on-year growth in express delivery volume in August 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases [5]. Highway and Railway - The report forecasts growth in highway traffic and railway passenger and freight volumes, with a notable increase in railway freight performance expected in Q3 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Zhejiang Huhangyong and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, which are expected to perform well in the current environment [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: October 10, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Shenwan Hongyuan Gold ETF Portfolio 202510 [1] - Analysts: Shen Siyi, Deng Hu [3] - Research Support: Bai Haotian [3] - Contact: Shen Enyi [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The report constructs four ETF portfolios, including the macro industry portfolio, macro + momentum industry portfolio, core - satellite portfolio, and trinity style rotation ETF portfolio, based on macro - sensitivity and momentum analysis, aiming to capture investment opportunities in different market environments [5][8]. - The current economic leading indicators are rising, liquidity indicators are slightly tight, and credit indicators remain positive. The portfolios are shifting towards a more balanced allocation, with an increased proportion of consumer sectors [5]. - The trinity style rotation model combines macro - liquidity, fundamental, and market sentiment factors to construct a medium - to long - term style rotation model, providing insights into market style preferences [5][9]. Group 4: ETF Portfolio Construction Methods 4.1 Based on Macro - Method - Calculate macro - sensitivity for broad - based, industry - theme, and Smart Beta ETFs based on economic, liquidity, and credit variables. Traditional cyclical industries are sensitive to the economy, TMT to liquidity, and consumption to credit [8]. - Construct three ETF portfolios (macro industry, macro + momentum industry, and core - satellite) using macro - sensitivity and momentum, and rebalance monthly [8]. 4.2 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - Build a medium - to long - term style rotation model centered on macro - liquidity, comparing with the CSI 300 index. Screen macro, fundamental, and market sentiment factors to construct three types of models (growth/value, market - cap, and quality) [9]. Group 5: Portfolio Details 5.1 Macro Industry Portfolio - Select the top 6 industry - theme indices based on macro - sensitivity scores, and equally weight the largest - scale corresponding ETFs. Currently, the portfolio is more balanced with an increased consumer proportion [5][10]. - October 2025 holdings include ETFs related to tourism, home appliances, chemicals, etc. [14]. - In 2025, the portfolio had varying monthly excess returns, with positive excess returns in September [15]. 5.2 Macro + Momentum Industry Portfolio - Combine macro and momentum methods. The pharmaceutical sector's weight is further reduced, and rare earth and battery sectors are selected on the momentum side [5][16]. - October 2025 holdings include multiple industry - themed ETFs [18]. - The portfolio performed well in 2025, with positive excess returns in September after a drawdown in August [19]. 5.3 Core - Satellite Portfolio - Use the CSI 300 as the core and combine broad - based, industry, and Smart Beta portfolios. Weight them at 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively [20][21]. - October 2025 holdings include a mix of broad - based and industry - themed ETFs [24][25]. - The portfolio performed steadily in 2025, outperforming the index almost every month [25]. 5.4 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - The model currently favors small - cap growth and high - quality styles. The portfolio's factor exposure and historical performance are presented [26][27]. - October 2025 holdings include ETFs related to small - cap indices and high - growth sectors [31]. - The portfolio has shown certain performance since 2021, with positive excess returns in September 2025 [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the health insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [6][12]. Core Insights - The recent "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Health Insurance" released by the regulatory authority marks a significant policy support for the health insurance sector, suggesting a favorable environment for growth [3][4]. - The report identifies four major categories of health insurance products: commercial medical insurance, long-term care insurance, disability income loss insurance, and critical illness insurance, each with specific development policies [4][5]. - The integration of health insurance with health management and the health industry is emphasized, promoting a comprehensive service system that includes prevention, management, and coverage [4]. - The report highlights the potential for health insurance products to experience a second wave of growth due to low interest rates and healthcare reforms, with commercial medical insurance expected to become a key product [6][7]. Summary by Sections Health Insurance Product Categories - The report categorizes health insurance into four types: 1. Commercial medical insurance: Actively developed with a focus on comprehensive coverage and risk matching 2. Long-term care insurance: Strongly promoted, emphasizing cash benefits and care services 3. Disability income loss insurance: Strongly promoted with an expanded coverage base 4. Critical illness insurance: Steadily developed with updates based on disease spectrum changes [4]. Policy Support and Innovations - The report outlines new policy measures, including: 1. Allowing well-rated insurers to offer dividend-type long-term health insurance 2. Supporting personal account-based long-term medical insurance 3. Encouraging innovative collaborations between insurance and pharmaceutical companies 4. Promoting group health insurance development [5]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that health insurance products will benefit from a combination of low interest rates and evolving customer needs, leading to increased focus on protection-oriented products [6][7]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Life, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and Sunshine Insurance, with a suggestion to pay attention to China Taiping [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the domestic AI chip industry, particularly highlighting the advancements of leading companies such as Huawei, Cambricon, and Moore Threads [4]. Core Insights - The domestic AI computing industry is undergoing significant changes in both supply and demand, with a rapid increase in Token consumption driving AI capital expenditure growth [14][5]. - Moore Threads, founded in 2020, focuses on the development of fully functional GPU chips and has a strong team with backgrounds from NVIDIA, positioning itself as a leading player in the domestic AI chip market [4][25]. - The company's products are designed to meet diverse computing needs, integrating AI acceleration, graphics rendering, and other capabilities into a single GPU chip [38][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic AI Chip Industry - The domestic AI Token consumption has increased by 300 times over 1.5 years, with daily consumption surpassing 30 trillion by mid-2025 [14]. - Major internet companies are significantly increasing their AI-related capital expenditures, with Alibaba's projected spending exceeding 380 billion over three years [15][19]. 2. Moore Threads: Ecosystem, Architecture, and Clusters - Moore Threads has launched four generations of GPU architectures, covering AI computing, cloud computing, and personal computing [25][38]. - The company’s AI computing products are primarily delivered in cluster form, with significant revenue growth expected from AI computing cards starting in 2024 [49][50]. 3. Company Positioning and Product Development - Moore Threads' products are positioned as fully functional GPUs, supporting various computing precisions to cater to different application scenarios [38][39]. - The company has a robust product matrix that includes AI computing cards, professional graphics acceleration products, and desktop graphics cards [26][39]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The leading domestic AI chip manufacturers include Huawei, Cambricon, and Moore Threads, with their latest products nearing NVIDIA's H100 performance levels [4][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of software ecosystems and interconnectivity protocols being developed by companies like Huawei and Haiguang to enhance the overall AI chip ecosystem [6][7]. 5. Financial Performance and Projections - Moore Threads is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 7.01 billion in the first half of 2025, a 60% increase from the previous year [42][43]. - The company maintains a stable gross margin of around 70%, with expectations of turning profitable as AI computing cards gain market traction [43][44].

Group 1: IPO Market Trends - In September 2025, the A-share market saw 12 new IPOs, raising a total of 11.9 billion yuan, a 308% increase month-on-month[9] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets issued 8 new stocks in September, with a total fundraising of 10.6 billion yuan, marking a 607% increase month-on-month[9] - The average first-day closing price increase for new stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 207%, maintaining a "zero break" status for the year[33] Group 2: Valuation and Investor Participation - The average first-day PE ratio for new stocks was 24 times, with a 31% discount compared to comparable companies, indicating a narrowing valuation gap[20] - The average subscription rate for A/B class investors in the Shenzhen market was 0.0216%/0.0182%, reflecting a decrease of 1% and 15% respectively month-on-month[27] - The average number of offline inquiry products in the Shenzhen market reached a new high, with 8,275 products participating in September[24] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - As of September 2025, there were 118 IPO projects pending approval in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total proposed fundraising of 208.8 billion yuan[59] - The approval and registration process for IPOs has accelerated, with 12 projects reviewed and 13 registered in September, both hitting yearly highs[54] - Risks include potential changes in the IPO review pace, adjustments in issuance systems, and fluctuations in investor participation[48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating an overweight outlook for the lithium battery sector due to recent export control measures [3][12]. Core Insights - The recent export controls on lithium batteries and related materials are expected to benefit companies with high-end product capabilities and overseas production capacity. The measures aim to prevent the uncontrolled spread of high-end lithium battery technologies and enhance China's bargaining power in international trade [3][4]. - The export restrictions are not expected to have a significant short-term impact on the battery, cathode, and anode sectors, as companies can still export through licensing and other means. The current energy density of exported liquid batteries is primarily between 200-280 Wh/kg, which means the new restrictions will have a limited effect [3][4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others that have overseas production capabilities, as the premium for high-end products is likely to increase under the new export control policies [3][4]. Summary by Sections Export Control Measures - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials, effective from November 8, 2025. This includes specific requirements for high energy density batteries and advanced cathode materials [3][4]. Impact on Industry - The export controls are designed to safeguard high-end technology from leaking abroad and to strengthen domestic industry competitiveness. The policy reflects a trend towards controlling the export of high-end products and technologies [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investors pay attention to battery manufacturers such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others, as well as material companies with overseas production like Hunan Youneng and others, due to their potential to benefit from the new export restrictions [3][4].

Group 1 - Understanding the reasonable pricing of the bond market may require comprehension of the overdrawn market conditions in December 2024, where the 10-year government bond yield dropped from 2.02% to 1.68%, a decrease of 35 basis points, indicating a significant overdraw [7][8] - The financial system's lack of long-term capital is a key issue, with the proportion of government bonds with maturities over 7 years increasing from 33% in 2021 to over 43% in 2025, while the growth of long-term capital in the financial system has not kept pace [11][12] - The current bond market's characteristics can be understood through a game-theoretic perspective, where the slow duration reduction may be influenced by market sentiment, leading to a disconnection between market performance and fundamentals [14][15] Group 2 - The recent growth in credit bond ETFs is driven by policy support, with the scale reaching 485.9 billion yuan by the end of September 2025, and the second batch of 14 technology innovation bond ETFs launched, indicating a trend towards expansion [22][23] - The resilience of credit bonds in the third quarter can be attributed to a favorable funding environment, investor reluctance to sell, and the expansion of credit bond ETFs, with expectations for continued fluctuations in credit spreads in the fourth quarter [25][26] - The "Southbound Bond Connect" policy is expected to enhance the liquidity of offshore bonds, with the recent regulatory changes allowing for increased issuance and trading of offshore bonds, which may provide investment opportunities in high-quality local government bonds and international institution bonds [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the health insurance sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [6]. Core Insights - The recent "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Health Insurance" released by the regulatory authority marks a significant policy support for the health insurance sector, suggesting a favorable environment for growth [3][4]. - The report identifies four major categories of health insurance products: commercial medical insurance, long-term care insurance, disability income loss insurance, and critical illness insurance, each with specific development goals [4]. - The integration of health insurance with health management and the health industry is emphasized, promoting a comprehensive service system that includes prevention, management, and coverage [4]. - The report highlights the potential for health insurance products to experience a second wave of growth due to low interest rates and healthcare reforms, with commercial medical insurance expected to become a key product [6]. Summary by Sections Health Insurance Development - The report outlines the classification and policy positioning of health insurance products, advocating for a diversified and comprehensive coverage system [4]. - It stresses the importance of enhancing the sustainability of health insurance through digital applications and dynamic actuarial adjustments [4]. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses new regulatory measures allowing well-rated insurers to offer dividend-type long-term health insurance and supports the development of personal account-based long-term medical insurance [5]. - It also encourages innovative collaborations between insurance and pharmaceutical companies to enhance product offerings and payment methods [5]. Market Opportunities - The report suggests that the current low interest rate environment and ongoing healthcare reforms create a conducive backdrop for the growth of health insurance products, particularly commercial medical insurance [6]. - It recommends several key companies in the insurance sector, including China Life, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and others, as potential investment opportunities [6].