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《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》(发改价格〔2026〕114号)的点评:容量电价引导调节电源投资,精准定价平稳收益
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-02-01 11:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent issuance of the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Price Mechanism on the Generation Side" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, aimed at addressing the challenges in the development of adjustable power sources amid the transition to a new energy system [2]. - The report highlights the need for a refined capacity pricing mechanism to ensure the economic viability of coal, gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage sources, which are essential for balancing the supply and demand of renewable energy [2]. - The report emphasizes the differentiation in capacity pricing for four types of adjustable power sources, aiming to optimize revenue logic and ensure fair competition across regions [2]. - A key breakthrough is the establishment of a unified compensation mechanism for reliable capacity, which standardizes compensation across different types of power generation units based on their peak supply capabilities [2]. - The report suggests that the improved pricing mechanism will stabilize investment expectations in the power sector, ensuring a balance between energy security and the integration of renewable energy [2]. Summary by Sections Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The report outlines the necessity of improving the capacity pricing mechanism to address the issues of supply-demand mismatch and insufficient adaptation of existing mechanisms [2]. - It identifies three major problems with the current system, including declining utilization hours for coal power and the lack of cost constraints for pumped storage pricing [2]. Differentiated Pricing Strategy - The report details the differentiated optimization of capacity pricing for adjustable power sources, allowing local authorities to set prices based on specific factors such as discharge duration and peak contribution [2]. - It introduces a "new and old distinction" strategy for pumped storage, maintaining existing pricing for older plants while implementing a unified pricing mechanism for new projects [2]. Unified Compensation Mechanism - The report introduces a reliable capacity compensation mechanism that standardizes compensation across different generation units, promoting rational investment and resource allocation in the power sector [2]. - This mechanism aims to link revenue to the actual contribution of each type of power generation unit, encouraging efficiency and technological improvements [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including coal power companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, as well as hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment [2][3].
化妆品医美行业周报:业绩预告彰显板块景气度,建议关注节前促销-20260201
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-02-01 11:45
行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2026 年 02 月 01 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 业绩预告彰显板块景气度,建议关注节前促销 看好 ——化妆品医美行业周报 20260201 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 本阶段化妆品医美板块表现弱于市场。2026 年 1 月 23 日至 2026 年 1 月 30 日期间, 申万美容护理指数下滑 3.8%,表现弱于市场。其中,申万化妆品指数下滑 3.6%,弱于 申万 A 指 1.9pct;申万个护用品指数下滑 4.6%,弱于申万 A 指数 3.0pct。 ⚫ 周观点:业绩预告彰显板块景气度 ...
北交所策略周报(20260126-20260201):\沃什交易\影响风偏,北证业绩预告密集发布-20260201
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-02-01 11:18
Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the "Walsh trade" on market risk appetite, indicating a potential shift in global asset allocation and market style due to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which has already affected market risk preferences [9][11]. - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a decline of 3.59% this week, with notable sector rotations observed, where previously high-performing sectors like military and power equipment corrected, while previously lagging sectors such as oil and gas, real estate, food and beverage, and communications rebounded [5][8]. - Key performing sectors this week included space photovoltaic (Liancheng Numerical Control +21.73%), seed industry (Qiule Seed +22.55%, Kangnong Seed +13.5%), and optical communication (Hengdong Light +14.83%, Gebijia +19.72%) [5][8]. Group 2 - The report notes an acceleration in new stock issuances, with five new stocks launched in January 2026, and a total of 123 companies having released performance forecasts by January 30, 2026, indicating a need for expansion in the North Exchange due to its limited number of companies and small market capitalization [10][24]. - The median net profit forecast for companies in the North Exchange is over 80 million yuan, with several companies, including Fujida and Jilin Carbon Valley, expected to see over 30% year-on-year growth in Q4 2025 [10][11]. - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on sectors with clear industry trends and catalysts, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and optical communication, while monitoring the effects of the "Walsh trade" on interest rates and small-cap stocks [11][24]. Group 3 - The North Exchange's trading volume reached 5.961 billion shares this week, reflecting a 9.27% increase, while the trading value was 143.655 billion yuan, up 8.82% from the previous week [14][23]. - The report indicates that 43 stocks rose while 249 fell, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.17, with notable gainers including Keli Co. and Qiule Seed [33][34]. - The report also details the performance of newly listed stocks, with Nongda Technology and Meidele experiencing significant first-day gains of 111.56% and 161.46%, respectively [24][27]. Group 4 - The report outlines the new three-board situation, with 14 new companies listed and 6 delisted, alongside a planned financing of 150 million yuan, which was completed at 161 million yuan [46][47]. - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring of the North Exchange's stock performance and the implications of new listings on market dynamics [10][24].
北交所策略周报:“沃什交易”影响风偏,北证业绩预告密集发布-20260201
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-02-01 10:11
Group 1 - The "Walsh trade" is impacting risk preferences, with a notable focus on the potential reversal of the "weak dollar" trade, which could significantly affect global asset allocation and market styles [11][12] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a decline of 3.59%, while daily trading volume saw a slight increase [11][17] - Key sectors that performed well this week include space photovoltaic, seed industry, non-ferrous metals, and optical communication, with notable stock performances from companies like Liancheng CNC and Gongbika [11][12] Group 2 - New stock issuances have accelerated, with five new stocks launched in January 2026, and over 120 companies releasing performance forecasts [13][27] - As of January 30, 2026, 123 companies on the North Exchange have issued performance forecasts, with a median net profit forecast exceeding 80 million yuan [13] - The report suggests that the North Exchange needs to expand its number of companies and improve the quality of new stock issuances in 2026 [13] Group 3 - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 83.89 times, with a median of 41.26 times, indicating a decline in valuation metrics [23][24] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached 5.961 billion shares, with a trading value of 143.655 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 9.27% and 8.82% respectively [26][29] - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with 43 stocks rising and 249 falling, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.17 [36]
非银金融行业周报(2026/1/26-2026/1/30):资金面因素逐步出清,看好非银板块投资价值-20260201
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-02-01 09:52
行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 两端改善趋势——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略:权益浪潮 下的券商机遇:财富扩容,国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 01 日 资金面因素逐步出清,看好非银板 块投资价值 看好 ——非银金融行业周报(2026/1/26-2026/1/30) 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 《25 年业绩高增态势确立,融资保证金比 例旨在引导回归价值投资——券商板块跟 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 踪》 2026/01/15 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈",看好资负 ...
港股运动板块25Q4运营数据总结:销售略有放缓,寻求渠道及产品创新突破
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-02-01 09:43
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in sales growth due to warm weather and delayed Spring Festival, with outdoor categories and high-cost performance brands leading the growth [3]. - Anta's main brand retail sales saw a low single-digit decline year-on-year, while FILA brand showed a mid-single-digit growth, and other brands like Descente and KOLON SPORT experienced significant growth [3]. - Li Ning's overall channel revenue declined in low single digits, but the decline rate narrowed compared to the previous quarter, benefiting from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [3]. - Xtep's main brand revenue remained flat, with a low single-digit growth for the year, while its subsidiary Saucony saw over 30% growth [3]. - 361 Degrees continued to lead the industry with a 10% growth in both adult and children's apparel, and high double-digit growth in e-commerce [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Anta's main brand offline discount rate was approximately 7.1, with a stock-to-sales ratio slightly above 5 times [3]. - Li Ning's discount rates deepened in December, with a stock-to-sales ratio of about 4-5 months [3]. - Xtep maintained a stable discount rate of 7-7.5, with a stock-to-sales ratio of about 4.5 months [3]. - 361 Degrees' discount rate remained stable at 7-7.1, with a stock-to-sales ratio in the range of 4.5-5 times [3]. Channel Development - Anta opened around 150 Champion series stores, achieving over 1 billion in revenue, and launched over 300 lighthouse stores with significantly higher productivity [3]. - Li Ning introduced new pop-up stores and plans to open flagship stores, receiving positive sales feedback [3]. - Xtep opened its first gold standard leading store and plans to add 20-30 more, with a strong performance in outlet channels [3]. - 361 Degrees expanded its super brand stores, exceeding expectations with a total of 126 stores by the end of 2025 [3]. Product Focus - Anta's outdoor brands performed well, with Descente becoming the third 10 billion brand, and KOLON SPORT showing substantial growth [3]. - Li Ning's outdoor category grew rapidly, applying advanced technologies to new professional sports products [3]. - Xtep's running category saw double-digit growth, extending technology to outdoor products [3]. - 361 Degrees accelerated its One Way layout, opening new stores covering professional skiing and outdoor products [3]. Future Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be significant for events, with brands planning to increase marketing and product investments [3]. - Li Ning announced its collaboration with the Chinese Olympic Committee for the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics [3]. - Anta plans to increase brand marketing and product investment, which may lead to temporary fluctuations in profit margins [3]. - 361 Degrees announced a strategic partnership with the Asian Olympic Council, becoming the official supplier for the 2025 WTCC [3]. - Xtep focuses on core running business and continues to enhance its brand image through event marketing [3].
全球资产配置每周聚焦(20260123-20260130):联储换帅金银巨震,静待波动率回到低位-20260201
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-02-01 09:31
证 券 研 究 报 告 联储换帅金银巨震,静待波动率回到低位 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20260123-20260130) 证券分析师:金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 王胜 A0230511060001 2026.2.1 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾:本周 (20260123-20260130)特朗普鹰派提名扰动美联储政策预期,经济韧性与通胀粘性令货币政策两难,市场定价2026年美联储降息两次。市场担忧沃什立 场偏鹰派,美元与10Y美债利率边际上行,流动性预期趋紧,叠加高位获利了结,贵金属大幅下跌。1)固收方面,10Y美债收益率录得4.26%,美元指数当前点位为97.1;2)权益 方面,本周韩国、阿根廷市场股市上涨较多,A股指数恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数和上证50上涨较多,中证转债、科创50和北证50有所下跌,越南、日本股市跌幅较大;3)商品 方面,本周黄金下跌2.01%,地缘政治风险集中爆发驱动原油本周上涨7.32%。 ◼ 本周,特朗普正式宣布凯文・沃什为美联储主席,沃什 ...
农林牧渔周观点(2026.1.26-2026.2.1):节前猪价反弹告一段落,肉牛价格涨势延续-20260201
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-02-01 09:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that major meat protein prices (pork, chicken, beef, eggs, and aquatic products) are expected to bottom out and rise in 2026. The efficiency differences among pig farming enterprises will be crucial for profitability this year. The chicken industry, after a prolonged downturn, is anticipated to recover gradually due to improving demand. The beef and raw milk sectors are expected to reach a supply-demand balance after ongoing capacity reductions, signaling a cyclical upturn [2][3]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned for growth, including Muyuan Foods, Dekang Animal Husbandry, Wens Foodstuff, Shennong Group, Tiankang Biological, and others [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 1.8%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.1%. The top five gainers included Nongfa Seed Industry (30.2%), Shennong Technology (26.1%), and others, while the top five losers included Fujian Jinsen (-12.6%) and others [2][3]. Pig Farming - The report notes that the overall pig slaughter pace has accelerated as the pre-holiday window approaches, leading to a significant drop in pig prices. The average price for external three yuan pigs was 12.24 yuan/kg, down 5.3% week-on-week. The seasonal price rebound that began in mid-December has likely concluded, with expectations of further price pressure [2][3]. Chicken Farming - The report indicates that the price of white feather chicken and chicken products has shown strong support, with the average sales price for white feather chicken at 3.76 yuan/kg, up 2.7% week-on-week. The demand side is expected to improve, potentially pushing product prices out of the cyclical bottom [2][3]. Cattle Farming - The report highlights a slight increase in beef and calf prices, with the average price for fattening bulls at 25.68 yuan/kg, up 0.1% week-on-week. The raw milk price remains stable at 3.04 yuan/kg, supported by seasonal demand [2][3]. Pet Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring online sales of pet food in 2025, noting that major online platforms reported a sales figure of 21.1 billion yuan in December 2025, a decrease of 11% year-on-year. However, the overall annual sales for 2025 reached 307.1 billion yuan, an increase of 10% [2][3].
纺织服装行业周报 20260201:安踏收购 PUMA 加码全球化,女装板块迎业绩修复-20260201
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-02-01 09:24
纺织服员饰 2026 年 02 月 01 日 安踏收购 PUMA 加码全球化,女装板块迎业绩修复 -纺织服装行业周报 20260201 相关研究 《安踏体育 (02020) 点评:收购 PUMA 29%的股权,推进多品牌全球化战略》 2026/01/28 《本周发布 25 年报前瞻,澳毛周期、无纺 布制造可期——纺织服装行业周报 20260125》 2026/01/25 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 版分分析 看好 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本周纺织服饰板块表现强于市场。1 月 26 日 ~ 1 月 30 日, SW 纺织服饰指数下跌 0.7%,跑 ...
杰普特(688025):Q4业绩高增长,消费级及光通信打开成长新空间:杰普特(688025):
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-02-01 07:58
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.987 to 2.152 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 36.67% to 48.02%. The fourth quarter of 2025 is projected to generate revenue between 478 to 643 million yuan, with a growth rate of 24.55% to 67.53% [3]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated to be between 262 to 309 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 97.69% to 132.88%. For Q4 2025, the net profit is expected to be between 59 to 105 million yuan, with a growth rate of 99.04% to 257.89% [3]. - The company's revenue and profit growth are primarily driven by the increasing demand for laser products, particularly in the new energy battery sector and consumer-grade applications [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 1.454 billion yuan - 2025: 2.084 billion yuan - 2026: 2.957 billion yuan - 2027: 4.212 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are expected to be 18.6% in 2024, 43.3% in 2025, 41.9% in 2026, and 42.5% in 2027 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be: - 2024: 133 million yuan - 2025: 268 million yuan - 2026: 482 million yuan - 2027: 698 million yuan - The corresponding year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected to be 23.5% in 2024, 101.8% in 2025, 80.0% in 2026, and 44.8% in 2027 [5][7].