第 1页 共 4页 政策研究报告：中国提振消费的战略选择与 国际经验，提振消费、扩大内需-国泰海通 证券 一、研究背景评估 二、范围与边界确认 三、核心摘要提炼 四、关键数据抓取与呈现 五、风险与机遇诊断 第 2页 共 4页 1. 研究背景评估 | 评估维度 | 说明 | | --- | --- | | 研究机构 | 网易传媒 & 知萌咨询 | | 权威性说明 | 网易传媒是国内领先的内容平台，深耕 AI 与内容营销实践；知萌咨询是长期专注消 费趋势的专业机构，自 2017 年起连续发布《中国消费趋势报告》，在趋势研究与战 | | | 略咨询领域具有行业公信力。双方联合发布，报告兼具产业实践与学术深度。 | | 样本数量 | 未披露独立调研样本量，数据综合自 CNNIC、消费趋势报告、公开财报等。 | | 研究时间范围 | 核心数据截至 2025 年底，案例及趋势展望至 2026 年。 | | 时效性评估 | 面向 2026 年趋势预测，数据较新，具备强前瞻性。 | 二、范围与边界确认 | 维度 | 说明 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 研究主题 | AI 驱动的内容营销战略转型与六大趋势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [4][8]. Core Insights - The company's consolidated revenue for January 2026 increased by 87.6% year-on-year, with a target price raised to 189.2 CNY, reflecting a 43 times PE ratio for 2026 [4][6]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, and has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore [6][4]. - The financial forecast indicates a projected EPS growth of 5.2%, 40.5%, and 20.2% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][7]. Financial Summary - The consolidated revenue for January 2026 was 6.56 billion NTD (approximately 1.44 billion CNY), with a year-on-year increase of 87.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 30.9% [4]. - The consolidated revenue for Q4 2025 was 25.08 billion NTD (approximately 5.52 billion CNY), showing a year-on-year increase of 133.7% [4]. - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 76.74 billion NTD (approximately 16.9 billion CNY), reflecting an 18.1% increase [4][7]. - The company’s net profit for 2026 is forecasted to be 940 million CNY, with a net profit margin of 14.7% [7][4]. Valuation Metrics - The current price is 143.78 CNY, with a target price of 189.20 CNY, indicating significant upside potential [8]. - The company’s PE ratio for 2026 is projected at 31.8 times, while the historical average PE is around 74.2% [6][4]. - The company has a current dividend yield of 1.4%, with a proposed dividend payout ratio of 33.6% for 2024 [6][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Kelun Pharmaceutical [13] Core Views - The core asset SKB264 of the subsidiary has received approval for its fourth indication in China, indicating a positive outlook for the sales of innovative drugs and an expectation for the recovery of the main business [2][13] - The report anticipates total revenue for 2025-2027 to be 174.2 billion, 197.6 billion, and 225.7 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -20.1%, 13.4%, and 14.2% [13] - Expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.93, 1.14, and 1.72 yuan [13] - The report highlights the stable development of various business segments and the upcoming overseas launch of the first product from Kelun Botai, supporting the continued realization of the company's innovative drug business [13] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 21,454 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,456 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a significant increase of 44.0% [5] - The report forecasts a net profit margin of 12.3% for 2023, with a projected increase to 14.0% by 2027 [16] - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 42,588 million yuan by 2027, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 22.9% [16] Market Data - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks is between 26.85 and 40.70 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 51,218 million yuan [8] - The report sets a target price of 45.41 yuan based on a 40x PE ratio for 2026 [13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 76.76 CNY [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in industrial equipment intelligent operation and maintenance solutions, benefiting from the release of downstream digital transformation demands, with growth momentum continuously strengthening [2]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 687 million, 839 million, and 1,047 million CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 137 million, 178 million, and 239 million CNY for the same years [17][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The industrial equipment status monitoring and fault diagnosis system is expected to see revenue growth driven by increasing digitalization and intelligent transformation in various industries, with a projected revenue growth rate of 18.3%, 23%, and 25% from 2025 to 2027 [14][16]. - The software, self-manufactured sensors, and subscription-based diagnostic services are anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue, with expected growth rates of 15%, 17%, and 25% from 2025 to 2027 [15][16]. 2. Valuation Analysis - The report utilizes both PE and PS valuation methods, estimating a reasonable valuation of 67.64 billion CNY based on a 38x PE for 2026 and a 9x PS for the same year [18][22]. - The average PE of comparable companies for 2026 is noted to be 30.8x, indicating a strong market position for the company [22][24].

| 北证日均成交额环比继续下降，北证 50 | | --- | | 指数当周震荡显著 | ——北交所周报（2026 年 2 月第 1 周） 本报告导读： 2 月第 1 周 A 股市场缩量震荡，小盘股表现稍弱，北证 50 指数波动明显，单周小幅 下跌 0.70%，日均成交额回落至 200 亿元附近。当周北交所 2 只新股招股，无新股 上市。 投资要点： 新股研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.12 | [Table_Authors] | 王政之(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38674944 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | | | 施怡昀(分析师) | | | 021-38032690 | | | shiyiyun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060002 | | | 王思琪(分析师) | | | 021-38038671 | | | wangsiqi3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080007 | [Table_Report] 相关报 ...

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000 jobs[9] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4%, with a labor force participation rate increase to 62.5%[14] - Average weekly hours worked rose to 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%, surpassing the expected 0.3%[17] Annual Revision - The non-seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figure for March 2025 was revised down by 862,000 jobs, close to the previous estimate of 911,000[22] - The total annual job additions for 2025 were revised down from 584,000 to 181,000, resulting in an average monthly addition of approximately 15,000 jobs[23] Federal Reserve Outlook - The stronger-than-expected employment data has reduced market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a less than 6% probability of a rate cut in March[28] - The Federal Reserve may have room to pause rate cuts before June, with potential cuts expected in June and September[28] Risks - Inflation exceeding expectations could limit the space for rate cuts, and political pressures may threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve[29]

美国的"再通胀"之路 [Table_Authors] 韩朝辉(分析师) ——全球流动性"潮汐"研究一 "再通胀"的归途 当"K型分化"转向"再通胀" 本报告导读： 当美国从"K型分化"转向"再通胀"，近期全球流动性似乎也从宽松预期的放缓， 转向紧缩预期的抬头。"降息+缩表"的政策组合预期下，注定这是一场非典型的再 通胀交易（有时更像是滞胀交易）。关注全球流动性"潮汐"下的大类资产联动。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] "K型分化"的来路 美国资产负债表的结构特征。 →美国私人部门的资产负债表相当健康（尤其是 2020 年疫后 QE 阶 段加了一波杠杆的群体），导致美国高净值群体拥有大量的净资产（其中 以房产和股权为主）；而疫后美国的利率结构也比较特殊，由于大量的信 贷扩张是发生在 QE阶段，导致高净值群体的存量抵押贷款利率并不算高 （目前是 4.2%）。作为对比，目前 30 年期新发贷款利率在 6.1%。 导致利率敏感度的截然不同。 →"高净值群体"可以通过再融资贷款（cash-out refinance）将净资产 变现，支撑消费端韧性和美股流动性，所以当新旧贷款利差（再融资扩张 的边际成本）收窄 ...

| 北证日均成交额环比继续下降，北证 50 | | --- | | 指数当周震荡显著 | ——北交所周报（2026 年 2 月第 1 周） 本报告导读： 2 月第 1 周 A 股市场缩量震荡，小盘股表现稍弱，北证 50 指数波动明显，单周小幅 下跌 0.70%，日均成交额回落至 200 亿元附近。当周北交所 2 只新股招股，无新股 上市。 次新板块持续回调，科创板年内首只未盈利新股 上市 2026.02.10 新股精要—动力电池热失控防护零部件领先提供 商固德电材 2026.02.10 IPO 月度数据一览（2026 年 1 月） 2026.02.03 次新板块回调明显，恒运昌申购收益亮眼 2026.02.02 北证交易活跃度回升，北证 50 指数回调 2026.02.01 证 券 研 究 报 告 投资要点： 新股研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.12 | [Table_Authors] | 王政之(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38674944 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | | | ...

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.12 本报告导读： 博弈偏股条款，挖掘偏高利差。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 产业永续债分析框架和机会挖掘 [Table_Authors] 王宇辰(分析师) 010-83939801 wangyuchen4@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880523020004 [Table_Report] 相关报告 如何择时股债对冲效率 2026.02.05 "做陡曲线"还是"宏观对冲"，基金参与国债期 货的两面 2026.02.01 如何理解 ONRRP 类工具与双向隔夜回购 2026.01.30 承接"存款搬家"，理财投了什么，收益如何 2026.01.30 债券 ETF 规模跃升之后：业绩归因、策略优化与 未来挑战 2026.01.29 债 券 研 究 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 产业永续债的发行主要以降低企业杠杆率为目标，过去有两轮发行 与净融资的高峰。（1）2018 年-2020 年，《关于加强国有企业资产负 债约束的指导意见》的落地，推动国有企业平均资产负债率到 2020 年年末比 2017 年 ...

Group 1: ETF Market Overview - The ETF market in China has rapidly developed over the past few years, forming a comprehensive product system that covers various asset types and investment markets, including domestic and international markets [3] - ETFs are categorized by asset type into three main categories: equities, bonds, and commodities, with equity ETFs further divided into broad-based, sector, thematic, and strategy types [3] - The complete and evolving ecosystem of ETFs provides essential tools for investors to conduct refined and diversified asset allocation [3] Group 2: Military Industry Developments - The successful flight test of the Long March 10 rocket and the Dream Chaser spacecraft marks a significant breakthrough in China's manned lunar exploration program, with expectations for rapid development in space economy sectors such as space tourism and resource development during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][8] - The Chinese government aims to achieve its first manned moon landing by 2030, with a series of planned missions leading up to this goal, including the launch of the Chang'e 7 and Chang'e 8 missions [8] - The military industry is expected to see commercial space ventures become a core investment direction during the 14th Five-Year Plan, driven by advancements in space exploration projects [8][9] Group 3: Absolute and Relative Return Strategies - Five absolute return strategies have been constructed, with annualized returns ranging from 6.74% to 11.66% over various periods, indicating the potential for stable returns through diversified asset combinations [4] - Relative return strategies include style rotation and industry rotation, with annualized returns for style rotation strategies reaching up to 26.65% and industry rotation strategies achieving returns of 20.17% [5] Group 4: Service Industry Insights - The service industry in China has significant potential for growth, with the value-added share expected to increase as the economy transitions from goods to services, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior [15][16] - The analysis indicates that sectors such as retail, dining, and healthcare within the service industry have considerable room for improvement, driven by demand and productivity changes [18]