| 黄金与商品指数上涨，基于宏观因子的资 | | --- | | 产配置策略本年收益 4.25% | 大类资产配置模型月报（202511） 本报告导读： 2025 年以来，国内资产 BL 策略 1 的 11 月收益为 0.09%，2025 年收益为 4.04%； 国内资产 BL 策略 2 的 11 月收益为 0.13%，2025 年收益为 3.82%；国内资产风险平 价策略的 11 月收益为-0.01%，2025 年收益为 3.68%；基于宏观因子的资产配置策 略的 11 月收益为 0.02%，2025 年收益为 4.25%。 投资要点： 风险提示：量化模型基于历史数据构建，而历史规律存在失效风险。 | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-23219395 | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 张雪杰(分析师) | | | 0755-23976751 | | | zhangxuejie@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S088052 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.10 电子布：紧缺预期下的"抢单季"躁动 其他非金属矿物制品 [Table_Industry] ——玻璃纤维行业更新 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | baoyanxin@gtht.com | S0880513070005 | | 花健祎(分析师) | 0755-23976858 | huajianyi@gtht.com | S0880521010001 | | 杨冬庭(分析师) | 0755-23976166 | yangdongting@gtht.com | S0880522080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 其他非金属矿物制品《石英资源应用高端化，新 材料国产化加速》2024.01.17 本报告导读： 覆铜板龙头集体布局 26 年高端份额的争取，带动近期特种电子布采购框架上修。同 时，传统电子布在织布机转产影响下继续提价的确定性较高。 投资要点： 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 跟 ...

11 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖 [Table_Industry] 造纸业 造纸行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 王文杰(分析师) | 021-23185637 | wangwenjie4@gtht.com | S0880525040070 | 本报告导读： 11 月阔叶浆价格上涨，白卡纸继续发布提价函，文化纸价格企稳，黑纸持续上涨， 盈利略有承压，我们预计 12 月浆价持续上涨，白纸价格逐步传导，黑纸延续上涨。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 造纸业《10 月包装纸表现较好，文化纸需求较 弱》2025.11.16 造纸业《全球视角看阔叶木材供需变化趋势》 2025.10.26 造纸业《9 月多数纸种价格上涨，文化纸表现疲 软》2025.10.15 造纸业《8 月木浆及黑 ...

2025 数据来源：WIND，国泰海通证券研究整理，数据截至2025年11月14日。 3 2 / 01 2025 阶段一：1月至3月上旬，央行公开市场投放节制+释放稳汇率决心+暂停购买国债，资金维持偏紧态势压制债市情绪， 叠加权益市场表现偏强，股债跷跷板效应延续，信用债跟随利率债调整，压力由短端向长端超长端传导，各类信用债 收益率均呈现上行趋势。 阶段二：3月中旬至7月初，资金转松+中美关税政策扰动，信用债收益率跟随债市整体修复，信用债/科创债ETF规模 扩张速度较快，机构配置需求较高，推动利差持续压缩。 01 2025 5Y | 产业债（中证） | 11月7日 | | 中票 | | | 城投债 | | | | | 普通商金债 | | | 二级资本债 | | | 永续债 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AAA AA+ | | | AAA AA+ | AA | | AAA AA+ | AA | | AA ...

业绩增速逐季改善，息差管控颇有成效 交通银行(601328) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 刘源(分析师) | 021-38677818 | liuyuan2@gtht.com | S0880521060001 | 本报告导读： 交通银行 2025Q1-3 营收及净利润增速逐季提升，息差管控颇有成效，资产质量稳中 向好。上调目标价至 8.58 元，维持增持评级。 投资要点： | 风险提示：零售信用风险暴露超出预期、息差下行节奏超出预期。 | | --- | | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 257,595 | 259,826 | 263,638 | 267,790 | 271,9 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the AI industry Core Insights - The AI industry is witnessing significant developments, including acquisitions and new product launches, indicating a robust growth trajectory - Major companies like OpenAI, Meta, and Marvell are actively expanding their capabilities through strategic acquisitions and innovative product offerings - The introduction of advanced AI models and technologies is expected to enhance operational efficiencies and create new market opportunities Industry Dynamics - OpenAI announced its fourth acquisition in 2025, acquiring Neptune, a startup providing AI model training tracking tools [4] - Meta is forming a design team led by former Apple VP Alan Dye to develop next-generation AI glasses and wearable devices [5] - Marvell's acquisition of Celestial AI focuses on photonic interconnect technology, crucial for addressing AI computing power bottlenecks [6] AI Application Insights - Apple is leveraging AI to extract deeper cardiovascular health insights from Apple Watch optical sensors, introducing a "hypertension alert" feature based on long-term data trends [8] - Google launched Workspace Studio, allowing users to create AI agents using natural language, enhancing automation and collaboration [9] Large Model Insights - Amazon Web Services (AWS) introduced the Nova 2 series of AI models and a new service for customizing model versions for enterprise clients [11] - NVIDIA released the Alpamayo-R1, a visual language action model focused on autonomous driving, marking a significant advancement in the field [12] - Mistral AI launched the Mistral 3 series models, including a large model with 675 billion parameters, which is open-sourced under Apache 2.0 [13] Technology Frontiers - AWS unveiled the Trainium3 AI training chip, achieving over four times the speed improvement in training and inference compared to its predecessor [15] - Blue Origin introduced an AI device capable of converting lunar dust into energy, showcasing innovative applications of AI technology [16] - HPE and Broadcom launched the "Helios" AI rack solution, featuring vertical scaling Ethernet networks and significant computational capabilities [14]

2025Q1~3 归母净利润同增 5.7%，产品平台化打开了全球市场空间 江河集团(601886) 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.10 建筑工程业 [Table_Industry] /工业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 韩其成(分析师) | 021-38676162 | hanqicheng@gtht.com | S0880516030004 | | | | 郭浩然(分析师) | 010-83939793 | guohaoran@gtht.com | S0880524020002 | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): | 10.62 | | 曹有成(分析师) | 021-23185701 | caoyoucheng@gtht.com | S0880525040079 | | | 本报告导读： 2025Q1~3 归母净利润同增 5.7%，2025 年上半年海外新签 52 亿元同增 61%占 38% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $13.88 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company continues to experience high growth in client assets, with brokerage and interest income showing sustained quarter-on-quarter growth. The ongoing improvement in the business structure is expected to lead to a continuous reduction in cost rates, further supporting high net profit growth [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from $273 million in 2023 to $1,022 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 31% [5][9]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from $33 million in 2023 to $386 million in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 186% in 2025 [5][9]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 44.80 in 2023 to 4.29 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [5][9]. Client Growth and Asset Management - In Q3 2025, the company added 31,500 new funded clients, a 46.75% increase compared to the same period in 2024, achieving its annual target of 150,000 new funded clients [7]. - Client assets reached a historical high of $61 billion, with a 17% quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by 30% from net capital inflows and 70% from market gains [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Total trading volume increased by 100.68% year-on-year to $710.91 billion, leading to brokerage income growth of 90.14% to $196 million and interest income growth of 36.57% to $186 million [7]. - The cost-to-income ratio has decreased to a historical low of 6%, supported by the SEC's decision to eliminate transaction fees, which has positively impacted commission income [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the AI industry Core Insights - The AI industry is witnessing significant advancements, particularly in multimodal models, with SenseNova's NEO architecture being a notable development that enhances the integration of visual and language processing [15] - The upcoming 2025 Brain-Computer Interface Conference aims to promote practical applications and innovations in brain-computer interface technology [5] - Strategic collaborations, such as the partnership between UBTECH and ZhiSheng Technology to deploy 10,000 robots by 2031, indicate a strong focus on robotics and AI integration [7] - The acquisition of the AI search team by Xiaohongshu reflects a trend of companies consolidating AI capabilities to enhance their product offerings [8] Summary by Sections AI Industry Dynamics - The 2025 Brain-Computer Interface Conference will take place from December 4 to 5 in Shanghai, featuring competitions focused on practical applications of brain-computer interface technology [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is preparing to establish the China Artificial Intelligence Terminal Industry Association, which aims to support high-quality development in the AI terminal industry [6] AI Application Insights - Li Auto has launched its first AI glasses, Livis, which weigh 36 grams and can operate for 18.8 hours, showcasing a crossover from smart vehicles to wearable technology [9] - Doubao has released a technical preview of its mobile assistant, integrating various functionalities to enhance user experience [10] - Ant Group's AI assistant has been upgraded to generate simple games in as little as 30 seconds, highlighting advancements in user-generated content [12] - Gaode Map has introduced an "AI Parking Radar" feature that provides real-time updates on parking availability, enhancing urban navigation [13] AI Large Model Insights - Doubao's voice recognition model 2.0 has improved its contextual understanding, achieving a 20% increase in keyword recall rate and supporting multiple languages [14] - SenseTime's NEO multimodal model architecture has been released and open-sourced, aiming for deeper integration of visual and language processing [15] - Alibaba's Qwen-Image model has been updated for better consistency in image generation and editing, now available on the Qianwen app [16] - DeepSeek has launched its V3.2 series models, narrowing the performance gap between open-source and commercial models [17] Technology Frontiers - Tencent has launched EdgeOne Pages, a full-stack edge development platform, facilitating rapid web project deployment [18] - The latest version of Improved MeanFlow by He Kaiming's team addresses key issues in training stability and efficiency, achieving significant performance improvements [20]

2025 年 12 月 10 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 国泰海通晨报 [Table_Summary] 1、【非银行金融研究】投资银行业与经纪业：2025 年 11 月存量基金净流入。个人投资者风险偏 好略有好转，机构资金持续寻求收益增厚。绩效考核新规下发，行业更重投资者体验。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 刘欣琦(分析师) 021-38676647 liuxinqi@gtht.com S0880515050001 王思玥(分析师) 021-38031024 wangsiyue@gtht.com S0880525070022 推荐机构服务能力与投顾业务能力更强的券商，个股推荐中信证券、广发证券、华泰证券。 风险提示：权益市场大幅波动。 请务必阅读文章最后一页相关法律声明 1 of 11 行业跟踪报告：投资银行业与经纪业《绩效考核迎新规，行业 更重投资者体验》2025-12-09 2025 年 11 月 ...