优必选与卓世科技达成战略合作，众擎发布 T800 [Table_Industry] 汽车 人形机器人行业跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 房乔华(分析师) | 021-23185699 | fangqiaohua@gtht.com | S0880525040065 | 本报告导读： 近期国内外人形机器人产业在政策、产品和订单方面均取得重要进展，我们认为当 前人形机器人行业正处于商业化初期的关键阶段，需要重视行业的边际变化对国产 链和海外链优质公司的影响。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 汽车《线控转向相关国标发布，产业迎来重要助 | | --- | | 推》2025.12.07 | | 汽车《零跑 Lafa 5 上市，海外布局延伸至南美》 | | 2025.11.30 | | 汽车《10 月重卡天然气持续回暖，新能源再创新 | | 高》2025.1 ...

Group 1: DeepSeek-V3.2 Series Release - The release of DeepSeek-V3.2 marks a significant advancement in open-source large models, achieving performance levels comparable to top closed-source models[3] - The Speciale version of DeepSeek-V3.2 has excelled in international competitions, ranking second in the ICPC and winning gold medals in the IMO, demonstrating its potential to reach human-level intelligence[4] - DeepSeek-V3.2 integrates thinking modes with tool invocation, enhancing the model's generalization and execution capabilities across complex scenarios[5] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - The 2025 Winter FORCE Conference is set to focus on Agentic AI, with significant updates expected for the Doubao model family and AI application capabilities[9] - Doubao model's daily token usage surged from 120 billion in May 2024 to over 30 trillion by September 2025, indicating a 253-fold increase in usage[10] - The report predicts that the 2026 monetary policy will emphasize "wide credit" rather than merely "wide loans," aligning with fiscal measures to support economic growth[35] Group 3: Company Coverage and Financial Projections - Faway Automobile Components (600742) is rated "Overweight" with a target price of RMB 14.10, based on stable automotive parts business and expansion into robotics and low-altitude economy[13] - Projected revenues for Faway are RMB 208.72 million, RMB 220.62 million, and RMB 231.65 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 6.30 million, RMB 6.99 million, and RMB 7.75 million[13] - The company is actively developing humanoid robots and EVTOL interior designs, leveraging its automotive parts manufacturing expertise[15]

绝对收益产品及策略周报（251124-251128） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 上周 6 只固收+基金创新高 本报告导读： 股票端采用小盘成长组合+不择时的股债 10/90 和 20/80 月度再平衡策略，2025 年累 计收益分别为 6.50%和 11.93%。 投资要点： 上周成长因子表现较好，本年中证 2000 指数增强 策略超额收益为 28.08% 2025.12.04 大额买入与资金流向跟踪（20251124-20251128） 2025.12.02 红利风格择时周报（1124-1128） 2025.12.01 高频选股因子周报（20251124-20251128） 2025.12.01 风格 Smart beta 组合跟踪周报（2025.11.24- 2025.11.28） 2025.12.01 券 研 究 报 告 金 融 工 程 周 报 固收+产品业绩跟踪。截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日，全市场固收+基金 规模 21824.28 亿元，产品数量 1148 只，其中 6 只上周净值创历史 新高。上周（20251124-20251128，下同）共新发 12 只产品，各 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Index Enhancement Strategies - **Model Name**: Index Enhancement Strategy for CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on a multi-factor stock selection model, leveraging an equity factor library to identify effective factors within the constituent stocks of the respective indices[77] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Factor Selection**: Hundreds of factors from the equity factor library are screened for effectiveness within the constituent stocks of CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 indices[77] - **Portfolio Optimization**: - For CSI 300: Strict sector and market capitalization neutrality, individual stock weight capped at 8%, and weight deviation capped at 3%[77] - For CSI 500: Strict sector and market capitalization neutrality, individual stock weight capped at 1%, and weight deviation capped at 1%[77] - For CSI 1000 and CSI 2000: Market capitalization deviation capped at 0.5 standard deviations, sector deviation capped at 2.5%, individual stock weight capped at 1% for CSI 1000 and 0.5% for CSI 2000[77] - **Rebalancing**: Weekly tracking of the performance of the index enhancement strategy within the constituent stocks[77] Model Evaluation - **Evaluation**: The strategy effectively utilizes a multi-factor approach to enhance index performance while maintaining sector and market capitalization neutrality. However, the strategy's performance is subject to transaction costs and historical data limitations[77][83] --- Model Backtesting Results CSI 300 Index Enhancement Strategy - **Weekly Return**: 1.53% (Index Return: 1.64%, Excess Return: -0.12%)[78] - **Monthly Return**: -3.31% (Index Return: -2.46%, Excess Return: -0.85%)[78] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 21.83% (Index Return: 15.04%, Excess Return: 6.8%)[78] - **Maximum Drawdown of Excess Return**: -3.15%[78] CSI 500 Index Enhancement Strategy - **Weekly Return**: 2.97% (Index Return: 3.14%, Excess Return: -0.17%)[78] - **Monthly Return**: -4.54% (Index Return: -4.08%, Excess Return: -0.46%)[78] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 23.41% (Index Return: 22.81%, Excess Return: 0.61%)[78] - **Maximum Drawdown of Excess Return**: -4.77%[78] CSI 1000 Index Enhancement Strategy - **Weekly Return**: 3.77% (Index Return: 3.77%, Excess Return: 0%)[83] - **Monthly Return**: -2.59% (Index Return: -2.3%, Excess Return: -0.29%)[83] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 35.59% (Index Return: 23.1%, Excess Return: 12.49%)[83] - **Maximum Drawdown of Excess Return**: -5.59%[83] CSI 2000 Index Enhancement Strategy - **Weekly Return**: 4.38% (Index Return: 4.99%, Excess Return: -0.61%)[83] - **Monthly Return**: -0.03% (Index Return: -0.4%, Excess Return: 0.37%)[83] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 59.74% (Index Return: 31.65%, Excess Return: 28.08%)[83] - **Maximum Drawdown of Excess Return**: -5.23%[83] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Single Factors - **Factor Name**: Analyst Forecast ROE-FY3 - **Construction Idea**: Measures the expected return on equity (ROE) for the next three fiscal years as forecasted by analysts[33] - **Construction Process**: Derived from analyst consensus estimates for ROE over the next three fiscal years[33] - **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power for stock selection, particularly in CSI 300 and CSI 2000 stock pools[33][36] - **Factor Name**: Standardized Unexpected Quarterly ROE with Drift - **Construction Idea**: Captures the deviation of actual quarterly ROE from expectations, adjusted for drift[35] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the unexpected component of quarterly ROE - Standardize the values and adjust for drift to account for temporal effects[35] - **Evaluation**: Effective in identifying outperforming stocks, particularly in CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 stock pools[35][36] - **Factor Name**: One-Month Price Change - **Construction Idea**: Reflects short-term momentum by measuring the percentage change in stock price over the past month[36] - **Construction Process**: Calculate the percentage change in stock price over the last 30 days[36] - **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 stock pools, indicating momentum effects[36] Factor Neutralization - **Neutralization Process**: - Apply absolute median method for outlier removal - Perform Z-score standardization - Conduct cross-sectional regression using log market capitalization and industry dummy variables as independent variables, with the factor as the dependent variable - Use the residuals as the neutralized factor values[32] --- Factor Backtesting Results CSI 300 Stock Pool - **Top Factors (Year-to-Date Excess Return)**: - Single-Quarter Revenue Growth Rate: 25.24%[33] - Single-Quarter ROE: 22.28%[33] - Single-Quarter ROA Change: 22.21%[33] CSI 500 Stock Pool - **Top Factors (Year-to-Date Excess Return)**: - Analyst Forecast Net Profit Growth Rate FY3: 14.53%[34] - Analyst Forecast Revenue Growth Rate FY3: 13.69%[34] - Analyst Forecast Revenue FY3 120-Day Change: 12.81%[34] CSI 1000 Stock Pool - **Top Factors (Year-to-Date Excess Return)**: - Standardized Unexpected Quarterly ROE with Drift: 19.18%[35] - Analyst Forecast ROE-FY3 120-Day Change: 18.4%[35] - Standardized Unexpected Quarterly Net Profit with Drift: 18.34%[35] CSI 2000 Stock Pool - **Top Factors (Year-to-Date Excess Return)**: - 90-Day Report Upward Revision Ratio: 25.01%[36] - Standardized Unexpected Quarterly Net Profit with Drift: 24.46%[36] - 5-Minute Volume Skewness: 23.74%[36] CSI All-Share Stock Pool - **Top Factors (Year-to-Date Excess Return)**: - Analyst Forecast ROE-FY3 120-Day Change: 23.52%[37] - Single-Quarter Revenue Growth Rate: 20.47%[37] - Analyst Forecast Revenue Growth Rate FY3: 19.35%[37]

汽零业务稳健，布局机器人和低空新赛道 富维股份(600742) 富维股份首次覆盖 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | 本报告导读： 汽零主业保持稳健增长；同时布局人形机器人和低空经济领域业务 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 20,766 | 19,636 | 20,872 | 22,062 | 23,165 | | (+/-)% | 4.0% | -5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | | 净利润(归母) | 521 | 509 | 630 | 699 | 775 | | (+/-)% | -4.4% | -2.3% | 23.8% | 10.9% | 10 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating a potential increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [4][9]. Core Insights - The release of DeepSeek-V3.2 and its enhanced version V3.2-Speciale marks a significant breakthrough in reasoning capabilities, tool invocation, and the open-source ecosystem, promoting the prosperity of large model open-source and developer ecosystems [2][4]. - DeepSeek-V3.2 achieves top-tier performance comparable to closed-source models, particularly in reasoning capabilities, and integrates innovative thinking modes into tool invocation, providing more efficient and cost-effective solutions for AI application development [4]. - The Speciale version has excelled in international competitions, achieving second place in the ICPC and demonstrating the potential of open-source models to reach human-level intelligence in complex reasoning tasks [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the computer industry, focusing on advancements in AI and large models, particularly the DeepSeek series [4]. Investment Recommendations - The investment suggestion emphasizes that the release of DeepSeek-V3.2 signifies a new phase in the performance and practicality of open-source large models, with a balanced focus on performance and efficiency [4]. Technological Advancements - DeepSeek-V3.2 incorporates a systematic approach to chain thinking within tool invocation processes, significantly enhancing the model's generalization and execution capabilities in complex scenarios [4]. - The model has undergone reinforcement learning across over 85,000 complex instructions in more than 1,800 environments, achieving the highest level among open-source models in tool invocation assessments [4]. Ecosystem Development - The comprehensive upgrade of DeepSeek-V3.2's open-source and API services is expected to accelerate technological penetration and drive transformative changes in industry applications [4]. - The open strategy is anticipated to attract numerous developers to build vertical applications based on DeepSeek, further solidifying its leading position in the open-source domain [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights that Japan's bond market experienced its most severe sell-off since 1999, driven by a combination of fiscal expansion, central bank policy shifts, and supply-demand imbalances [6][7][8] - The Japanese government's economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 3.5% of GDP) raised concerns about debt sustainability, leading to increased selling pressure in the bond market [6][7] - The Bank of Japan's reduction in long-term bond purchases exacerbated supply pressures, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a historic high of 3.26% [7][8] Group 2 - The report identifies common characteristics of global bond market volatility, noting that developed markets have also experienced significant adjustments in response to central bank policy signals [11][12] - In the UK, a crisis of fiscal credibility led to a surge in 30-year gilt yields to the highest levels since 1998, reflecting concerns over government debt sustainability [12] - Australia's bond market saw a sharp increase in yields following unexpected inflation data, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding interest rate movements [13][15] Group 3 - The report discusses the vulnerabilities of emerging markets, highlighting that their bond markets are particularly sensitive to changes in central bank policies, leading to amplified volatility [20][21] - Argentina's recent crisis exemplifies this vulnerability, with a significant rise in sovereign debt risk premiums amid concerns over fiscal sustainability [21][22] - The report notes that emerging markets face challenges due to shallow liquidity and reliance on foreign capital, which can lead to rapid capital outflows in response to policy shifts [20][23] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing fiscal expansion, central bank operations, and market absorption capacity in the context of Japan's bond market [28][29] - It suggests that while Japan's experience offers lessons, significant differences exist in capital account management and monetary policy tools between Japan and other countries [28][29] - The report warns that ongoing fiscal stimulus in China could lead to reassessments of long-term interest rate levels, particularly if nominal growth does not meet expectations [28][30] Group 5 - The report outlines potential scenarios for Japan's bond market, particularly in light of the upcoming Bank of Japan policy meeting, where tensions between fiscal stimulus and monetary tightening may influence market reactions [33][34] - It notes that the yield curve could steepen if interest rate hikes materialize, but economic data surprises could limit long-term yield increases [34][35] - The report highlights the differentiated risk profiles of various bond maturities, with longer-duration bonds facing greater price volatility in a low liquidity environment [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Accumulate" rating for leading energy storage companies, specifically Haibo Sichuang and Sunshine Power, along with related companies such as Canadian Solar and Xidian New Energy [5]. Core Insights - The development of AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) may exacerbate electricity shortages in the U.S., with data center energy storage serving as a short-term solution for peak shaving and frequency regulation, while potentially becoming a self-sufficient power source in the long term [2][3]. - Fluence is currently negotiating over 30 GWh of AIDC energy storage projects, with 80% of these projects initiated after the end of Q4 2025, indicating a significant emerging market opportunity [3][4]. - The energy consumption of data centers in the U.S. is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase from 176 TWh in 2023 to between 325-580 TWh by 2028, which will raise their share of total U.S. electricity consumption from 4.4% to between 6.7% and 12% [3][4]. Summary by Sections AIDC Development and Energy Demand - AIDC's high energy consumption could lead to increased electricity shortages in the U.S. According to the Department of Energy (DOE), data center electricity demand is expected to grow annually by 13%-27% from 2023 to 2028 [4]. - If 50 GW of new data center capacity is added by 2030, the projected electricity gap could reach 23 GW, potentially larger when considering the retirement of existing power plants [4]. Energy Storage Solutions - Short-term energy storage solutions are beneficial for data centers to manage power fluctuations and facilitate grid connection, with the current grid connection process taking several years [4]. - Long-term, solar and storage solutions may evolve into self-sufficient power sources for data centers, with the economic viability of solar storage already being demonstrated [4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights the potential of long-duration energy storage (6-8 hours) as an emerging opportunity, particularly in markets with high renewable energy penetration like Europe and California [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the advantages of solar storage over gas turbines, particularly in terms of connection timelines and economic feasibility [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Views - The new tax policy is expected to benefit compliant leading brands in the gold market, with the company poised to increase its market share under this policy [2][11] - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by rising gold prices and increased investment demand [16][20] Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 16,552 million yuan in 2023 to 31,804 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.9% [4][21] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 707 million yuan in 2023 to 1,023 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 8.5% [4][21] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.91 yuan in 2023 to 1.32 yuan in 2027 [4][21] Revenue Forecast - The company’s revenue from precious metal investment products is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 18,068.91 million yuan in 2025, representing a 40% increase [16][17] - Revenue from gold jewelry is anticipated to grow at a slower pace, with estimates of 6,020.28 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% increase [16][17] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, exceeding 75% [11][20] Market Position and Strategy - The company operates as a member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, allowing it to directly procure gold and sell it through a fully owned retail model, which is less affected by the new tax policy [11][42] - The company is expanding its retail presence, with a total of 103 stores by mid-2025, covering key cities including Beijing, Tianjin, and others [11][20] - The new tax policy is expected to enhance the company's competitive pricing advantage in the investment gold market, potentially attracting customers from other brands [11][42] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 19.26 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18x for 2025, which is slightly above the industry average [22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company, with a target price of HKD 3.91, corresponding to a 20x P/E for 2025 [7][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain high growth in performance due to an increase in the proportion of used car financing, a successful transition to a light asset model driving SaaS business growth, and the application of AI in the automotive industry [3][11]. - The company’s used car financing transactions reached 235,000 in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, with financing amounts totaling CNY 21.2 billion, and used car credit growth of 51.3% to CNY 12.1 billion, increasing its share to 56.9% [11]. - The SaaS business facilitated financing of CNY 11.4 billion in Q3 2025, a 102% year-on-year increase, contributing 53.7% to total financing [11]. - The company is expected to see continued improvement in performance in the second half of 2025, with AI products like "X Call" enhancing efficiency in credit applications and customer management [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 115.99 billion, CNY 129.40 billion, and CNY 144.39 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 17%, 12%, and 12% respectively [11]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are CNY 11.86 billion, CNY 14.59 billion, and CNY 18.16 billion, with growth rates of 46%, 23%, and 24% respectively [11]. - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 6.55 for 2024, increasing to 15.36 in 2025, and then decreasing to 10.03 by 2027 [11].