PMI 淡季回落，价格回升 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据点评 本报告导读： 本月制造业 PMI 淡季回落，需求待提振，扩产较谨慎。受大宗商品涨价 影响，价格指数明显回升。此外，服务业景气平稳，建筑业活跃度还需 政策呵护。 投资要点： | | 021-23185643 | | --- | --- | | | houhuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040074 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | [Table_Report] 相关报告 美联储如期按兵不动 2026.01.29 白银牛市：价格破 100 怎么看 2026.01.28 有待稳固的"V 型"反弹 2026.01.27 总量稳健，结构优化 2026.01.19 美国经济的韧性与三重"K"型分化 2025.12.24 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 专 题 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to Jiangnan New Materials with a target price of 132.00 CNY [5]. Core Viewpoints - Jiangnan New Materials is a leading player in copper-based new materials, focusing on the research, production, and sales of products such as copper balls, copper oxide powder, and high-precision copper-based heat sinks [2][15]. - The company has shown robust revenue and net profit growth, with projected revenues of 10.31 billion CNY, 12.44 billion CNY, and 14.82 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 325 million CNY, 481 million CNY, and 689 million CNY for the same years [4][11]. - Jiangnan New Materials has a clear and stable shareholding structure, with the chairman holding 39.06% of the shares, ensuring effective governance [21][23]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 6.82 billion CNY in 2023 to 14.82 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.1% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase significantly from 142 million CNY in 2023 to 689 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.97 CNY in 2023 to 4.72 CNY in 2027 [4]. Industry Overview - The copper-based new materials industry is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing demand in sectors such as PCB manufacturing and liquid cooling systems [2][15]. - The global liquid cooling system market has been growing rapidly, with expectations of doubling in size by 2030 [2][15]. - Jiangnan New Materials' products, particularly copper oxide powder, are positioned to meet the high-end requirements of PCB manufacturing and other applications, enhancing their competitive edge [2][15]. Company Development - Jiangnan New Materials has been recognized as a top enterprise in the electronic circuit industry and has received numerous awards for its innovation and quality [16][17]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with 96 patents granted, and aims to enhance its product offerings continuously [16][28]. - The company plans to invest in a new project to produce 12,000 tons of electronic-grade copper oxide powder, which will significantly expand its production capacity and meet growing market demands [31][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][2] Core Insights - The company has lowered its 2025 profit forecast but raised the profit forecasts and target price for 2026-2027, indicating a long-term positive development trend despite slightly lower-than-expected performance for 2025 [2][11] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 21.29 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.415 billion yuan for 2025, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years [11][12] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 755 million yuan in 2023 to 2.128 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 98% increase [4] - Net profit (attributable to the parent company) is expected to rise from a loss of 48 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 342 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 426.8% increase [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from -0.11 yuan in 2023 to 0.76 yuan in 2025 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -4.2% in 2023 to 17.0% in 2025 [4] Market Data - The company's target price has been raised to 115.05 yuan, up from a previous target of 75.20 yuan [11] - The stock has a market capitalization of 41.538 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 639.70 for 2024, decreasing to 121.43 for 2025 and 51.99 for 2026 [6][13] Business Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from rapid growth in the data communication market driven by artificial intelligence, with various product lines showing strong order growth compared to the previous year [11] - Key products such as AWG and MPO are anticipated to see significant demand increases, particularly in North America [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to Jiangnan New Materials with a target price of 132.00 CNY [5]. Core Insights - Jiangnan New Materials is a leading player in copper-based new materials, focusing on the research, production, and sales of products such as copper balls, copper oxide powder, and high-precision copper-based heat sinks [2][15]. - The company has shown robust revenue and net profit growth, with projected revenues of 10.31 billion CNY, 12.44 billion CNY, and 14.82 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 325 million CNY, 481 million CNY, and 689 million CNY for the same years [4][11]. - Jiangnan New Materials has a strong market position with a clear and stable shareholding structure, and its management team possesses extensive industry experience [21][23]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 6.82 billion CNY in 2023 to 14.82 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.1% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 142 million CNY in 2023 to 689 million CNY in 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.97 CNY in 2023 to 4.72 CNY in 2027 [4]. Industry Overview - The copper-based new materials sector is primarily applied in PCB manufacturing and liquid cooling systems, with significant growth expected in these areas due to increasing demand for high-performance electronic components [2][12]. - The global liquid cooling system market has been experiencing rapid growth, with projections indicating a potential doubling in market size by 2030 [12][15]. - The strategic resource nature of copper is becoming more pronounced with the rise of AI and renewable energy sectors, further driving demand for copper-based materials [12][13]. Company Development and Strategy - Jiangnan New Materials has been deeply engaged in the copper-based new materials field for many years, focusing on innovation and product development, resulting in 96 authorized patents [16]. - The company plans to invest in a new project to produce 12,000 tons of electronic-grade copper oxide powder annually, which will enhance its product structure and expand its operational scale [31][34]. - The company has established a strong customer base, including major PCB manufacturers, and continues to explore new applications in solar energy and lithium batteries [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the commercial real estate REITs sector [6]. Core Insights - The launch of commercial real estate REITs in China is expected to significantly improve corporate cash flow and performance, optimizing financial statements and guiding the industry towards a new model of development [2][6]. - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has entered the application stage, accelerating the development process [6]. - The report highlights several recommended companies across different categories, including development, residential-commercial, property management, and cultural tourism [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Highlights - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs covers diverse asset types such as hotels, offices, and commercial complexes, enhancing the range of underlying assets [2]. - Specific REITs mentioned include: 1. Huazhong Jinjiang Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 1.703 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 3.44% for 2025 [6]. 2. Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 4.002 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.50% for 2026 [6]. 3. CICC Vipshop Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 7.47 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.57% for 2026 [6]. Company Profitability Forecast - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating [8]. - Notable companies include: - Vanke A, with a projected EPS of -4.17 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 54.22 [8]. - China Overseas Development, with a projected EPS of 1.43 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 8.93 [8]. - Longfor Group, with a projected EPS of 1.58 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 5.93 [8].

非税高基数扰动：狭义收入回落 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2025 年 12 月财政数据点评 本报告导读： 12 月，非税高基数扰动下，狭义收入增速回落。支出端有保有压，凸显 "保障重点"、"提质增效"政策取向。展望 2026 年，总体支出力度"只 增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"，节奏有望前置。 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产需求有待提振。 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.31 | | 021-23185643 | | --- | --- | | | houhuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040074 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 报 证 券 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 快 结构性宽松继续 2026.01.15 M2 增速反弹：哪些驱动力 2026.01.15 美国通胀：延续温和 2026.01.14 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.31 整体略低预期，长期发展趋势向好 仕佳光子(688313) ——2025 业绩预告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 余伟民(分析师) | 010-50949926 | yuweimin@gtht.com | S0880525040028 | | 王彦龙(分析师) | 010-83939775 | wangyanlong@gtht.com | S0880519100003 | | 黎明聪(分析师) | 0755-23976500 | limingcong@gtht.com | S0880523080008 | | 桂海晟(研究助理) | 021-38031384 | guihaisheng@gtht.com | S0880124070058 | 本报告导读： 下调 2025 年盈利预测，上调 2026-2027 年盈利预测及目标价，维持增持 评级。业绩略低预期，长期发展趋势向好，业务 26 年增长可期。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.31 容量补偿完善，更看好北方电厂 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴杰(分析师) | 021-23183818 | wujie3@gtht.com | S0880525040109 | | 阎石(分析师) | 021-23185741 | yanshi@gtht.com | S0880525070005 | 本报告导读： 年度长协下移，容量电价托底；继续看好北方煤电盈利的长期趋势。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 公用事业《12 月低基数用电仍偏低，待 26 年政 策发力》2026.01.26 公用事业《国泰海通公用事业月度电力数据库 _20260123》2026.01.23 公用事业《公用事业数据周报_20260119》 2026.01.19 公用事业《跨境碳定价，绿电价值或提升》 2026.01.18 公用事业 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 167.46 CNY [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic laser cutting control system market, holding approximately 70% market share in the mid-to-low power segment and maintaining a strong position in the high-power segment [15]. - The company has a solid technical foundation and a robust customer base, with a focus on high-end intelligent and precision processing businesses, indicating significant growth potential in emerging fields such as industrial AI [2][15]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with projected revenues increasing from 1.41 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.69 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.9% [4][25]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to reach 1,735 million CNY in 2024, 2,145 million CNY in 2025, 2,736 million CNY in 2026, and 3,692 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.3%, 23.6%, 27.5%, and 34.9% respectively [4][25]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 883 million CNY in 2024, 1,085 million CNY in 2025, 1,308 million CNY in 2026, and 1,674 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 21.1%, 22.9%, 20.5%, and 28.0% respectively [4][25]. - The company maintains a high gross margin, projected at 79.9% in 2024, 79.6% in 2025, 78.7% in 2026, and 77.0% in 2027 [25]. Business Development - The company is transitioning from traditional mechanical systems to integrated solutions combining software and hardware, enhancing its competitive edge [15]. - Recent strategic adjustments focus on smart welding and precision processing, which are expected to open new market opportunities [18]. - The company has received key certifications for its intelligent welding systems, facilitating entry into mainstream shipbuilding supply chains [19]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has established a strong foothold in the overseas market, with over 37% of its revenue coming from international operations, which are growing faster than domestic sales [17]. - The laser cutting equipment market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to exceed 300 billion CNY in 2023 and reach 368.5 billion CNY in 2024 [21]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage its technological advantages and expand its market share in both domestic and international markets [17][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The demand for savings is driving growth in life insurance premiums, while the growth rate of property insurance premiums is slowing down, with a further increase in the proportion of non-auto insurance [3]. - The report anticipates a valuation recovery for insurance stocks driven by the resonance of assets and liabilities, maintaining the "Overweight" rating [3]. Summary by Sections Premium Income - In 2025, the total premium income for the insurance industry reached 611.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Life insurance premiums accounted for 436.24 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year, primarily driven by strong demand for insurance savings [4]. - The breakdown of life insurance premiums includes 355.57 billion yuan for life insurance, 76.99 billion yuan for health insurance, and 3.68 billion yuan for accident insurance, with year-on-year changes of 11.4%, -0.4%, and -9.8% respectively [4]. - In December, life insurance premiums were 168.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, attributed to some insurance companies striving to meet annual business targets [4]. Property Insurance - The total premium income for the property insurance sector was 175.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with a decline in growth rate of 1.7 percentage points compared to 2024 [4]. - The income from auto insurance and non-auto insurance was 94.09 billion yuan and 81.61 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.0% and 5.0% [4]. - In December, property insurance premiums were 141.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with auto insurance premiums at 97.7 billion yuan, up 2.2% [4]. Investment and Valuation Outlook - The report expects strong demand for insurance savings to drive growth in new business value (NBV) in 2026, particularly through the bank insurance channel, which will significantly contribute to the value growth of listed insurance companies [4]. - The stabilization of long-term interest rates, combined with insurance companies increasing their allocation to high-quality equity assets, is expected to positively impact investment returns [4]. - The report highlights that the insurance sector has been systematically undervalued, and it anticipates a recovery in insurance stock valuations driven by favorable sales conditions and rising asset-side interest rates [4]. Recommendations - The report recommends overweight positions in China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, and China Life Insurance [4].