Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 167.46 CNY [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic laser cutting control system market, holding approximately 70% market share in the mid-to-low power segment and maintaining a strong position in the high-power segment [15]. - The company has a solid technical foundation and a robust customer base, with a focus on high-end intelligent and precision processing businesses, indicating significant growth potential in emerging fields such as industrial AI [2][15]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with projected revenues increasing from 1.41 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.69 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.9% [4][25]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to reach 1,735 million CNY in 2024, 2,145 million CNY in 2025, 2,736 million CNY in 2026, and 3,692 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.3%, 23.6%, 27.5%, and 34.9% respectively [4][25]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 883 million CNY in 2024, 1,085 million CNY in 2025, 1,308 million CNY in 2026, and 1,674 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 21.1%, 22.9%, 20.5%, and 28.0% respectively [4][25]. - The company maintains a high gross margin, projected at 79.9% in 2024, 79.6% in 2025, 78.7% in 2026, and 77.0% in 2027 [25]. Business Development - The company is transitioning from traditional mechanical systems to integrated solutions combining software and hardware, enhancing its competitive edge [15]. - Recent strategic adjustments focus on smart welding and precision processing, which are expected to open new market opportunities [18]. - The company has received key certifications for its intelligent welding systems, facilitating entry into mainstream shipbuilding supply chains [19]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has established a strong foothold in the overseas market, with over 37% of its revenue coming from international operations, which are growing faster than domestic sales [17]. - The laser cutting equipment market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to exceed 300 billion CNY in 2023 and reach 368.5 billion CNY in 2024 [21]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage its technological advantages and expand its market share in both domestic and international markets [17][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The demand for savings is driving growth in life insurance premiums, while the growth rate of property insurance premiums is slowing down, with a further increase in the proportion of non-auto insurance [3]. - The report anticipates a valuation recovery for insurance stocks driven by the resonance of assets and liabilities, maintaining the "Overweight" rating [3]. Summary by Sections Premium Income - In 2025, the total premium income for the insurance industry reached 611.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Life insurance premiums accounted for 436.24 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year, primarily driven by strong demand for insurance savings [4]. - The breakdown of life insurance premiums includes 355.57 billion yuan for life insurance, 76.99 billion yuan for health insurance, and 3.68 billion yuan for accident insurance, with year-on-year changes of 11.4%, -0.4%, and -9.8% respectively [4]. - In December, life insurance premiums were 168.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, attributed to some insurance companies striving to meet annual business targets [4]. Property Insurance - The total premium income for the property insurance sector was 175.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with a decline in growth rate of 1.7 percentage points compared to 2024 [4]. - The income from auto insurance and non-auto insurance was 94.09 billion yuan and 81.61 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.0% and 5.0% [4]. - In December, property insurance premiums were 141.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with auto insurance premiums at 97.7 billion yuan, up 2.2% [4]. Investment and Valuation Outlook - The report expects strong demand for insurance savings to drive growth in new business value (NBV) in 2026, particularly through the bank insurance channel, which will significantly contribute to the value growth of listed insurance companies [4]. - The stabilization of long-term interest rates, combined with insurance companies increasing their allocation to high-quality equity assets, is expected to positively impact investment returns [4]. - The report highlights that the insurance sector has been systematically undervalued, and it anticipates a recovery in insurance stock valuations driven by favorable sales conditions and rising asset-side interest rates [4]. Recommendations - The report recommends overweight positions in China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, and China Life Insurance [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - HOKA has returned to high double-digit growth, with international markets continuing to be a growth engine. The performance in FY26Q3 exceeded management's cautious expectations from FY26Q2. The financial report highlights four key strengths: DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) sales, full-price sales capability, appeal to younger consumers, and strong international market performance. Based on the robust performance in FY26Q3, management has raised the FY26 full-year guidance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Deckers Outdoor reported FY26Q3 revenue of $1.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and net profit of $481 million, up 5.3%. By brand, HOKA generated $629 million in revenue, growing 18.5%, while UGG brought in $1.305 billion, a 4.9% increase. In terms of sales channels, DTC revenue reached $1.093 billion, up 8.1%, and wholesale revenue was $865 million, up 6.0%. Regionally, international market revenue was $757 million, a 15.0% increase, while domestic revenue in the U.S. was $1.2 billion, growing 2.7% [4]. Highlights - The report identifies four major highlights: 1. HOKA achieved healthy growth in the U.S. DTC channel, with a significant increase in new customer acquisition due to an optimized membership system, enhancing average order value and multi-category purchases. 2. The company maintained a high level of full-price sales despite frequent promotions in the macro environment, with average selling prices (ASP) for HOKA and UGG slightly above the previous year. 3. UGG's performance was strong across both wholesale and direct channels, with product strategies targeting younger consumers (e.g., Tasman, Ultra Mini) and the "Weather Hybrid" series boosting brand strength in the men's category. 4. The international market showed strong momentum, with growth rates (+15%) significantly outpacing domestic performance, as both HOKA and UGG maintained robust dynamics overseas [4]. FY26 Guidance Update - Based on the strong performance in FY26Q3, management has updated the FY26 full-year guidance, raising revenue expectations to $5.4 billion - $5.425 billion (previously $5.35 billion). HOKA's revenue growth is now projected in the mid-teens, while UGG's is expected in the mid-single digits. Diluted EPS is adjusted to $6.80 - $6.85 (previously $6.30 - $6.39), with gross margin expected around 57% (up 100 basis points) due to lower-than-expected tariff impacts. Management anticipates a net tariff impact of only $25 million for FY26, benefiting from better-than-expected pricing actions and inventory turnover timing. Looking ahead to FY2027, HOKA and UGG are expected to continue their growth phase through category expansion and international market share acquisition [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 167.46 CNY [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic laser cutting control system market, holding approximately 70% market share in the mid-low power segment and maintaining a strong position in the high-power segment. The company benefits from high gross margins of nearly 80% and net margins exceeding 60%, significantly outperforming peers [15][17]. - The company is transitioning from mechanical control systems to integrated solutions combining software and hardware, which includes intelligent cutting heads and control systems. This shift is supported by strong technical capabilities and a solid customer base [15][18]. - The company is actively expanding into new growth areas such as intelligent welding and precision processing, leveraging its core technologies to transform into a platform enterprise in industrial control [15][18]. - The company has a robust order backlog and long-term profitability potential, with significant growth expected from its overseas markets, which currently account for over 37% of revenue [17][18]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 1,407 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 3,692 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 34.9% [4][25]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 729 million CNY in 2023 to 1,674 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of about 28.0% [4][25]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.52 CNY in 2023 to 5.80 CNY in 2027 [4][25]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin above 78% over the next three years, with revenue growth driven by both traditional and new business segments [21][27]. - The revenue from the flat solution segment is projected to grow by 15% in 2024, while the pipe solution segment is expected to grow by 20% [22]. Valuation Analysis - The report uses a price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation method, estimating a conservative P/E of 37 for 2026, resulting in a target market capitalization of approximately 521.33 billion CNY [27][28]. - The average P/E of comparable companies is noted to be 56.8, indicating a strong market position for the company [27][28].

低频选股因子周报（2026.01.23-2026.01.30） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 风险提示：市场环境变动风险，有效因子变动风险。 | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 罗蕾(分析师) | | | 021-23185653 | | | luolei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040014 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 绝对收益产品及策略周报（260119-260123） 2026.01.29 大额买入与资金流向跟踪（20260119-20260123） 2026.01.27 风格 Smart beta 组合跟踪周报（2026.01.19- 2026.01.23） 2026.01.26 红利风格择时周报（0119-0123） 2026.01.26 高频选股因子周报（20260119-20260123） 2026.01.25 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 月份沪深 300 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to achieve excess returns over the CSI 300 Index by leveraging quantitative strategies and factor-based stock selection - **Model Construction Process**: The model is constructed by selecting stocks from the CSI 300 Index based on specific quantitative factors and optimizing the portfolio to maximize excess returns while managing risk. The exact factors and optimization techniques are not detailed in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown consistent performance in generating excess returns over the CSI 300 Index in the year-to-date period[5][9][15] 2. **Model Name**: CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model seeks to outperform the CSI 500 Index by utilizing quantitative strategies and factor-based stock selection - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected from the CSI 500 Index based on quantitative factors, and the portfolio is optimized to achieve excess returns while controlling risk. Specific details of the factors and optimization are not provided in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The model's performance has been mixed, with negative excess returns in the year-to-date period[5][9][15] 3. **Model Name**: CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to generate excess returns over the CSI 1000 Index through quantitative strategies and factor-based stock selection - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected from the CSI 1000 Index using quantitative factors, and the portfolio is optimized to maximize excess returns while managing risk. Specific details of the factors and optimization are not provided in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated positive excess returns in the year-to-date period[5][9][15] 4. **Model Name**: PB-Profit Combination Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The portfolio combines price-to-book (PB) ratio and profitability factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong earnings potential - **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed by selecting stocks with low PB ratios and high profitability metrics. The exact methodology for combining these factors is not detailed in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio has shown strong performance, with significant positive excess returns over the CSI 300 Index in the year-to-date period[5][31][33] 5. **Model Name**: GARP Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The portfolio follows the Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) strategy, focusing on stocks with a balance of growth and valuation metrics - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on a combination of growth and valuation factors. The specific factors and their weights are not detailed in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio has achieved significant positive excess returns over the CSI 300 Index in the year-to-date period[5][35] 6. **Model Name**: Small-Cap Value Portfolio 1 - **Model Construction Idea**: The portfolio targets small-cap stocks with value characteristics, aiming to outperform the micro-cap index - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on small-cap and value factors. The exact methodology for combining these factors is not detailed in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio has underperformed the micro-cap index in the year-to-date period[5][37] 7. **Model Name**: Small-Cap Value Portfolio 2 - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to Small-Cap Value Portfolio 1, this portfolio focuses on small-cap stocks with value characteristics - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on small-cap and value factors. The exact methodology for combining these factors is not detailed in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio has outperformed the micro-cap index in the year-to-date period[5][39] 8. **Model Name**: Small-Cap Growth Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The portfolio targets small-cap stocks with growth characteristics, aiming to outperform the micro-cap index - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on small-cap and growth factors. The exact methodology for combining these factors is not detailed in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio has underperformed the micro-cap index in the year-to-date period[5][41] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. **CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio** - Weekly return: -0.39% - Weekly excess return: -0.47% - Year-to-date return: 6.85% - Year-to-date excess return: 5.20%[9][15] 2. **CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio** - Weekly return: -1.74% - Weekly excess return: 0.82% - Year-to-date return: 11.11% - Year-to-date excess return: -1.01%[9][15] 3. **CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio** - Weekly return: -0.97% - Weekly excess return: 1.58% - Year-to-date return: 11.99% - Year-to-date excess return: 3.31%[9][15] 4. **PB-Profit Combination Portfolio** - Weekly return: 0.92% - Weekly excess return: 0.84% - Year-to-date return: 6.17% - Year-to-date excess return: 4.52%[31][33] 5. **GARP Portfolio** - Weekly return: 0.95% - Weekly excess return: 0.87% - Year-to-date return: 11.43% - Year-to-date excess return: 9.78%[35] 6. **Small-Cap Value Portfolio 1** - Weekly return: -2.44% - Weekly excess return: -1.29% - Year-to-date return: 7.89% - Year-to-date excess return: -2.83%[37] 7. **Small-Cap Value Portfolio 2** - Weekly return: -1.64% - Weekly excess return: -0.48% - Year-to-date return: 12.37% - Year-to-date excess return: 1.66%[39] 8. **Small-Cap Growth Portfolio** - Weekly return: -2.07% - Weekly excess return: -0.92% - Year-to-date return: 9.13% - Year-to-date excess return: -1.59%[41] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name**: Market Capitalization (Size) Factor - **Construction Idea**: Small-cap stocks tend to outperform large-cap stocks over time - **Construction Process**: Stocks are ranked by market capitalization, and the top 10% (smallest) and bottom 10% (largest) are selected to form long and short portfolios, respectively. The difference in returns between these portfolios represents the factor's performance - **Evaluation**: The factor has shown mixed performance across different indices and time periods[43][44][45] 2. **Factor Name**: Price-to-Book (PB) Factor - **Construction Idea**: Low PB stocks are expected to outperform high PB stocks - **Construction Process**: Stocks are ranked by PB ratio, and the top 10% (lowest PB) and bottom 10% (highest PB) are selected to form long and short portfolios, respectively. The difference in returns between these portfolios represents the factor's performance - **Evaluation**: The factor has shown strong performance in the short term but mixed results in the year-to-date period[43][44][45] 3. **Factor Name**: Price-to-Earnings (PE_TTM) Factor - **Construction Idea**: Low PE stocks are expected to outperform high PE stocks - **Construction Process**: Stocks are ranked by PE ratio, and the top 10% (lowest PE) and bottom 10% (highest PE) are selected to form long and short portfolios, respectively. The difference in returns between these portfolios represents the factor's performance - **Evaluation**: The factor has shown positive short-term performance but mixed year-to-date results[43][44][45] 4. **Factor Name**: Reversal Factor - **Construction Idea**: Stocks with recent underperformance are expected to outperform in the short term - **Construction Process**: Stocks are ranked by recent performance, and the top 10% (worst performers) and bottom 10% (best performers) are selected to form long and short portfolios, respectively. The difference in returns between these portfolios represents the factor's performance - **Evaluation**: The factor has shown positive short-term performance but negative year-to-date results[49][50] 5. **Factor Name**: Turnover Factor - **Construction Idea**: Stocks with lower turnover rates are expected to outperform those with higher turnover rates - **Construction Process**: Stocks are ranked by turnover rate, and the top 10% (lowest turnover) and bottom 10% (highest turnover) are selected to form long and short portfolios, respectively. The difference in returns between these portfolios represents the factor's performance - **Evaluation**: The factor has shown strong short-term performance but negative year-to-date results[49][50] 6. **Factor Name**: Volatility Factor - **Construction Idea**

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Insights - The company's 2025 performance forecast meets expectations, driven by technology empowerment, breakthroughs in key industries and clients, overseas improvements, government subsidies, and asset sales contributing to significant growth [2][12] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be between 267 million and 334 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 30% to 62.5% [12] - The report highlights the focus on mid-to-high-end positions and the continuous efficiency improvements driven by AI technology [12] Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 9,778 million yuan in 2023 to 14,581 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.7% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 201 million yuan in 2023 to 305 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant recovery with a growth rate of 48.6% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.02 yuan in 2023 to 1.55 yuan in 2025 [4] Market Data - The target price for the company's stock is set at 40.80 yuan [5] - The stock has a market capitalization of 6,048 million yuan, with a 52-week price range of 21.14 to 38.60 yuan [6] Performance Metrics - The report anticipates a net asset return (ROE) of 13.6% for 2025, indicating improved profitability [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 30.16 in 2023 to 19.82 in 2025, suggesting a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 40.80 CNY [5][12]. Core Insights - The company's 2025 performance forecast meets expectations, driven by technology empowerment, breakthroughs in key industries and clients, overseas improvements, government subsidies, and asset sales contributing to significant growth [2][12]. - The core drivers of growth for 2025 include: 1) Empowerment through technology platforms, focusing on high-end positions and niche markets; 2) Improvement in overseas revenue and profits; 3) Contributions from government subsidies and the sale of subsidiary equity [12]. - The company maintains a focus on high-end positions, leveraging AI to enhance efficiency and capitalize on the growing demand in high-tech industries [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 9,778 million CNY in 2023 to 14,581 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 23.7% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 201 million CNY in 2023 to 305 million CNY in 2025, representing a growth of 48.6% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.02 CNY in 2023 to 1.55 CNY in 2025 [4]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is 6,048 million CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 21.14 to 38.60 CNY [6]. - The current stock price is 30.73 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.16 for 2023, decreasing to 19.82 for 2025 [4][12]. Balance Sheet Overview - Shareholder equity stands at 2,172 million CNY, with a book value per share of 11.03 CNY [7]. - The company has a net debt ratio of -0.32%, indicating a strong financial position [7].

风险提示：金价持续下行，门店扩张不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 16,552 | 20,233 | 29,573 | 38,012 | 41,778 | | (+/-)% | 50.6% | 22.2% | 46.2% | 28.5% | 9.9% | | 净利润(归母) | 707 | 719 | 1,204 | 1,524 | 1,689 | | (+/-)% | 53.6% | 1.7% | 67.5% | 26.5% | 10.8% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.91 | 0.92 | 1.55 | 1.96 | 2.17 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 18.7% | 18.1% | 25.1% | 26.2% | 24.0% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄) | 23.19 | 22.79 | 13.61 | 10.75 | 9.70 | 股票研究 /[Table ...