产业观察 [table_Header]2026.01.29 四大增长极经济与产业洞察报告（2025） 产业研究中心 摘要：聚焦四大战略区域 2025 年协同发展，解构要素配置与产业生态新格局 期 2026.01.18 [Table_Summary] 核心观点：区域协同、产业升级与统一大市场建设的联动是高质量发展的 关键支撑。四大增长极通过制度协同破除行政壁垒，要素市场化改革畅通 资源流动，形成"顶层引领+地方创新"的协同格局。产业层面呈现梯度分 工与集群化演进，长三角技术密集型产业领跑，粤港澳大湾区聚焦跨境融 合，京津冀疏解赋能并重，川渝强化双核联动。通过"要素流动—产业协 同 —市场统一"联动路径，推动区域从"集群化"迈向"链群化"，既发挥比 较优势实现差异化发展，又通过跨域平台与规则衔接强化协同，为全国构 建优势互补、高质量发展的区域经济布局提供实践支撑。 筑基与引领：2025 年四大区域聚焦制度协同、规则衔接与跨域合作，以顶 层规划与专项政策为支撑，形成"顶层引领+地方创新"的协同格局，筑牢 区域高质量发展制度根基。 破壁与赋能：要素市场化改革正推动资源配置逻辑从"区域内优化"向"跨 区域重组"转化。人 ...

| GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | | --- | | 国泰海通证券 | 精 选 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-01-28 09:00——2026-01-29 15:00） 2 | | --- | --- | |  | 宏观专题：《美联储如期按兵不动》2026-01-29 2 | |  | 宏观专题：《白银牛市：价格破 怎么看》2026-01-28 3 100 | |  | 行业专题研究：计算机《制度闭环叠加 催化，迎接数据要素"价值释放年"》2026-01-28 3 AI | |  | 行业专题研究：可选消费品《智能眼镜产品力系列二：大模型催化，AI 眼镜异军突起评》2026-01-28 4 | |  | 行业专题研究：耐用消费品《3D 打印行业：产业浪潮已至，工业消费双向驱动》2026-01-28 5 | |  | 公司跟踪报告：中国中铁（601390）《铜钼矿产待重估，承建海南商业航天发射场》2026-01-29 6 | |  | 公司信息点评：长盈精密（300115）《股权激励落地绑定核心成员，机器人业务前景广阔》2026-01-29 7 | |  | ...

Performance Overview - As of January 23, 2026, the total scale of fixed income + funds reached CNY 21,780.36 billion, with 1,157 products available, of which 824 achieved historical net value highs last week[2] - The median performance of various fund types for the week (January 19-23, 2026) was as follows: mixed bond type I (0.26%), type II (0.47%), partially bond mixed (0.56%), flexible allocation (0.37%), bond type FOF (0.42%), and mixed type FOF (0.63%) [2] Asset Allocation and Strategy - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 indicates a slowdown, with the Shanghai Composite Index, China Government Bond Index, and gold contract AU9999 yielding 1.57%, 0.36%, and 14.08% respectively for January[3] - The recommended industry ETFs for January 2026 include coal, steel, securities companies, and banking sectors, with a weekly return of 1.77% and a cumulative return of 1.41% for the month[3] Absolute Return Strategies - The stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.00% last week, with a year-to-date (YTD) return of 0.51%, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy returned 0.13% last week (YTD 0.43%) [4] - The small-cap value strategy within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed a notable YTD return of 2.95%, while the cumulative return for the small-cap value strategy with macro momentum model reached 4.36%[4] Risk Assessment - Risks identified include factor failure risk, model mis-specification risk, and historical statistical regularity failure risk[5] High-Performing Products - A total of 824 fixed income + products reached historical net value highs, categorized by risk type: conservative (443), balanced (143), and aggressive (238) [19] - Top-performing products include: - Guangfa Jiajia A with a 9.88% increase over the past year[20] - Qianhai Kaiyuan Yuyuan with a 57.69% increase over the past year[20]

固收+产品业绩跟踪。截至 2026 年 01 年 23 日，全市场固收+基金 规模 21780.36 亿元，产品数量 1157 只，其中 824 只上周净值创历 史新高。上周（20260119-20260123，下同）共新发 12 只产品，各类 型基金业绩中位数表现分化：混合债券型一级（0.26%）、二级 （0.47%）、偏债混合型（0.56%）、灵活配置型（0.37%）、债券型 FOF （0.42%）及混合型 FOF（0.63%）。按风险等级划分，保守型、稳健 型、激进型基金中位数收益分别为 0.32%、0.47%、0.59%。 大类资产配置和行业 ETF 轮动策略跟踪。1）大类资产择时观点。 2026Q1 逆周期配置模型给出的宏观环境预测结果为 Slowdown，截 至 20260123，沪深 300 指数、中债国债总财富指数、上金所 AU9999 合约 1 月收益率分别为 1.57%、0.36%和 14.08%。2）行业 ETF 轮 动观点。2026 年 1 月，行业 ETF 轮动策略建议关注的行业 ETF 为： 国泰中证煤炭 ETF，国泰中证钢铁 ETF，国泰中证全指证券公司 ETF，华宝中证银行 E ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 54.45 CNY [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is set to implement an equity incentive plan in 2025, which will bind core members and anchor performance indicators to ensure stable growth in company performance [2][11]. - The company's main business is expected to grow steadily, although the net profit attributable to the parent company is affected by non-recurring gains and losses [2][11]. - The company has established itself as a key supplier of precision components in the humanoid robot sector, gaining recognition from leading clients in North America [11]. - The 3C business is entering an innovation cycle, while the new energy business is entering a phase of capacity release, which is expected to enhance profitability [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 13,722 million CNY in 2023 to 23,901 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 14.6% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 86 million CNY in 2023 to 1,660 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.06 CNY in 2023, increasing to 1.22 CNY by 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 1.5% in 2023 to 15.8% in 2027 [4]. Business Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth in the humanoid robot market, with over 400 different parts involved in various materials and processing techniques, indicating high technical barriers [11]. - The new energy business has expanded its client base to include major players like Tesla and CATL, with ongoing investments in production facilities to support capacity growth [11].

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.29 美联储如期按兵不动 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) ——2026 年 1 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读： 2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议按兵不动基本符合市场预期，美联储对经济、就业和通胀 都表现出了更乐观的态度，这为重启降息增加了很大的不确定性，鲍威尔模糊化前 瞻性指引。我们认为美联储主席换届与美联储独立性遭破坏将对货币政策产生较大 扰动，但具有短期性特征。预计美债利率短期高位震荡后先下后上，美股短期震荡 后仍有支撑。 投资要点： | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 白银牛市：价格破 100 怎么看 2026.01.28 有待稳固的"V 型"反弹 2026.01.27 总量稳健，结 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 54.45 CNY [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is set to implement an equity incentive plan in 2025, which will bind core members and anchor performance indicators to ensure stable growth in company performance [2][11]. - The company's main business is expected to grow steadily, although the net profit attributable to the parent company is affected by non-recurring gains and losses [2][11]. - The company has established itself as a key supplier of precision components in the humanoid robot sector, gaining recognition from leading clients in North America [11]. - The 3C business is entering an innovation cycle, while the new energy business is entering a phase of capacity release, which is expected to enhance profitability [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 13,722 million CNY in 2023 to 23,901 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.6% [4][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 86 million CNY in 2023 to 1,660 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.06 CNY in 2023, increasing to 1.22 CNY by 2027 [4][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 1.5% in 2023 to 15.8% in 2027 [4][12]. Business Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth in the humanoid robot market, with over 400 different parts involved in various materials and processing techniques, indicating high technical barriers [11]. - The new energy business has expanded its client base to include major players like Tesla and CATL, with ongoing investments in production facilities to support capacity growth [11]. - The company’s stock has shown a significant absolute increase of 114% over the past 12 months, indicating strong market performance [10].

净利润同比高增 22%，不良率降至 1%以下 青岛银行(002948) 青岛银行 2025 年业绩快报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 青岛银行扩表保持强劲，不良指标持续改善，拨备进一步夯实，业绩保持稳健高质 量增长，维持目标价至 6.4 元，维持增持评级。 [Table_Industry] 商业银行/金融 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): | 6.40 | | | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 3.88-5.32 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百万元) | 26,948 ...

铜钼矿产待重估，承建海南商业航天发射场 中国中铁(601390) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 韩其成(分析师) | 021-38676162 | hanqicheng@gtht.com | S0880516030004 | | 郭浩然(分析师) | 010-83939793 | guohaoran@gtht.com | S0880524020002 | | 曹有成(分析师) | 021-23185701 | caoyoucheng@gtht.com | S0880525040079 | 本报告导读： 铜、钴、钼保有储量国内领先，铜、钼产能国内前列。2025 年新签订单增长 1%， 其中海外订单增长 17%。 投资要点： [维持增持 Table_Summary] 。维持预测 2025–2027 年 EPS0.98/0.98/1.00 元同比-13.0%/- 0.1%/1.9%，给予公司 2026 年 9.3 倍 PE，对应维持目标价 9.07 元。 LME 铜现货结算价维持高位，中国中铁铜、钴、钼保有储量国 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 9.07 CNY, based on a PE ratio of 9.3 times for 2026 [3][9]. Core Insights - The company holds leading reserves of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum in China, with significant production capacity in these metals. The new order growth is projected at 1% for 2025, with overseas orders expected to increase by 17% [2][4]. - The LME copper spot price remains high, recorded at 12,980 USD/ton, a year-on-year increase of 43.4%. The company’s production for the first half of 2025 includes 148,789 tons of cathode copper, 2,830 tons of cobalt, and 7,103 tons of molybdenum [4]. - The company’s subsidiary, China Railway Resources, is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.58 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% [4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 1,263.5 billion CNY, with a projected decline to 1,099.3 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 5.3% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 33.5 billion CNY in 2023 to 24.3 billion CNY in 2025, a decline of 13.0% [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.98 CNY for 2025, with a slight increase to 1.00 CNY in 2027 [3][7]. Order Growth and Structure - The company signed new contracts totaling 27,509 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The overseas business saw a significant increase of 16.5% [5][20]. - The breakdown of new contracts includes 18,505 billion CNY from engineering construction, 4,725 billion CNY from emerging businesses, and 2,041 billion CNY from asset management [5][20]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively promoting an "AI+" initiative and has launched its first enterprise-level model, "Pioneer Model," aimed at various sectors including surveying, design, and construction [6]. - The company is involved in significant projects such as the construction of the Hainan commercial space launch site and has secured contracts for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway [6].