免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11540 | 125 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 128058 | -2774 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 0 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -41236 | -2824 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 11300 | 0 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 11000 | -100 | | | 生猪价 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The acquisition progress of gray jujubes in Xinjiang's main production areas has accelerated, with about 50% of the acquisition completed in major areas, and the acquired goods are being shipped. The prices in the production areas are weakly stable. The acquisition prices in Aksu and Alar areas are 4.80 - 5.50 yuan/kg and 5.00 - 6.00 yuan/kg respectively, and the acquisition progress is relatively fast [2]. - As of January 19, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week is 10,330 tons, an increase of 490 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 101.76%. The sample point inventory has increased [2]. - The product prices in the sales areas continue to decline, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market transactions are average. The Zhengzhou jujube futures price is expected to run at a low level in the short term [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujubes is 9,160 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 15; the main contract position volume is 113,843 hands, a decrease of 3,396; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions is - 10,058 hands, a decrease of 2,997; the number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 536 [2]. 现货市场 - The prices of various jujube products in different regions are as follows: the unified price of Kashi jujubes is 6.8 yuan/kg, the first - grade gray jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.45 yuan/jin, the unified price of Alar jujubes is 5.5 yuan/kg, the first - grade gray jujube wholesale price in Henan is 4.45 yuan/jin, the unified price of Aksu jujubes is 5.15 yuan/kg, the special - grade jujube price in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg, the special - grade jujube price in Hebei is 9.94 yuan/kg, the special - grade jujube price in Guangdong is 11.2 yuan/kg, and the first - grade jujube price in Guangdong is 10 yuan/kg. Most prices have no change, and the Hebei special - grade jujube price has an increase of 0.04 [2]. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 318.7 million tons, the planting area is 199.3 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 million hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 10,330 tons this week, an increase of 490 tons; the monthly jujube export volume is 2,205,220 kg, a decrease of 78,451 kg; the cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 25,753,622 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of jujubes of好想你is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative quarterly year - on - year jujube output growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59% [2]. Industry News - The acquisition progress of gray jujubes in Xinjiang's production areas is about 50%, and the transfer volume of goods rights is about 30% of the total output. The prices in the production areas are weakly stable. The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar areas is relatively fast, and the signed goods are being shipped [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to ample spot supply and average downstream demand, liquid caustic soda factory inventories accumulated last week, resulting in high pressure. The slight increase in raw salt prices and the decline in caustic soda and liquid chlorine prices in Shandong led to a decrease in the profits of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises. [2] - This week, the restart of several plants is expected to increase the caustic soda capacity utilization rate. Short - term alumina enterprises show no signs of large - scale production cuts, and their operation is expected to remain stable. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement. The new alumina production capacity in Guangxi is in the procurement stage, but the positive impact is limited under the background of high caustic soda production and inventory in China. The market is bearish on the future chlor - alkali profits, and the basis of the 01 contract remains high. [2] - In terms of valuation, plants above 2200 still have profit margins. Attention should be paid to the support around 2200 and the pressure around 2300. [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2229 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May were 2229 yuan/ton and 2380 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 19 yuan/ton and 15 yuan/ton. [2] - The net position of the top 20 futures contracts for caustic soda was - 19656 hands, a decrease of 2067 hands. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 241509 hands, an increase of 79282 hands. The position of the main caustic soda contract was 150260 hands, an increase of 5169 hands. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 760 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2375 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 146 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 217.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 656 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 100 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 125.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.5 yuan/ton. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2770 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 14th to 20th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. [2] - From November 15th to 21st, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.09% week - on - week to 85.46%. From November 14th to 20th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 0.59% week - on - week to 90.09%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 66.55%. [2] - As of November 20th, SH2601 fluctuated weakly and closed at 2229 yuan/ton. Last week, the loads in North and Northeast China increased, while there were plant overhauls in East, Central, and Southwest China. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 427,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year increase of 80.65%. [2] - From November 14th to 20th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 379 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. [2]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,304 | -5↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 935189 | -64552↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -76,128 | -2468↓ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | 9 | -1↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 141932 | -900↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 205 | +2↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | -10.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,320.00 | 0.00 | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷( ...

3、地方政府专项债迎来投向政府投资基金的集中发行高峰。广东省、四川省、上海市将于11 月28日合计发行200亿元专项债券，分别注入广东省政府投资基金、成都市创业投资基金和上 海未来产业基金。叠加此前多地发行的超600亿元相关专项债，目前披露的投向政府投资基金 的地方政府专项债总规模将超800亿元。 | | 周三国债现券收益率集体走弱，到期收益率1-7Y上行0.1-2.40bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益率 | | --- | --- | | | 上行1.50bp左右至1.84%、2.19%。国债期货集体走弱，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约分别下跌 | | | 0.05%、0.36%、0.86%。DR007加权利率回升至1.47%附近震荡。国内基本面端，10月社零 | | | 、工增较前值小幅回落，固投环比持续下降，失业率边际改善。10月社融、信贷同比小幅下 | | | 滑，政府债对社融的支撑持续减弱，企业、居民实际贷款需求仍然偏弱；M1、M2增速回落， | | | 存款活化程度放缓。10月出口同比增速转负，较去年同期下降1.1%。海外方面，美国9月非农 | | | 就业人口增11.9万人，大幅高于市场预期，但失 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the futures price of the container shipping index (European line) dropped significantly. The main contract EC2602 closed down 7.78%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 2%. The poor implementation of the freight rate increase plan led to a sharp decline in the near - month futures prices. The recovery of terminal transport demand is not solid, and the spot freight rate expectations continue to fall. Geopolitical conflicts remain deadlocked, while the German economy boosts market confidence. The freight rate market is highly affected by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The main contract EC2602 closed at 1126.400, down 14.6; the second - main contract closed at 1338, down 25.9. The EC2602 - EC2604 spread was 327.10, down 99.40; the EC2602 - EC2606 spread was 115.50, down 94.90. The EC contract basis was 185.87, up 115.10 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract's open interest was 17016 hands, an increase of 920 [2]. Spot Market Data - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1639.37, up 281.70; the SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1107.85, down 130.57. The SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1393.56, down 57.82; the container ship capacity was 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs), up 0.06. The CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1122.79, up 28.76; the CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1432.96, up 29.32 [2]. - **Freight Indexes**: The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2275.00, up 20.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1928.00, up 16.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 29150.00, down 1165.00 [2]. Industry News - **Sino - US Relations**: On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Sino - US relations have been generally stable and positive since the Busan meeting [2]. - **Ukraine - Russia Conflict**: The US and Ukraine completed a new 19 - point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be decided. European countries warned that an agreement cannot be quickly reached in the short term, and Russia said the European peace plan is not constructive [2]. - **Sino - Japan - Korea Relations**: China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning responded to the media report that China rejected Japan's proposal for a Sino - Japan - Korea leaders' meeting in January next year, stating that the three parties have not reached a consensus on the meeting date, and Japan's wrong remarks on the Taiwan issue have damaged the cooperation atmosphere [2]. Key Data to Watch - November 26, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 (in ten thousand people); US durable goods orders monthly rate for September [2]. - November 26, 22:45: US Chicago PMI for November [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economic growth rate in October continued the slowdown trend in the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, with structural tools being the main means of policy implementation in the next stage. The scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. - The bond market currently maintains a volatile pattern with a ceiling and a floor, awaiting directional guidance from uncertain factors such as new fund regulations and the central bank's treasury bond trading volume. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volume**: T主力收盘价108.220，较前一日下跌0.08%，成交量减少17030；TF主力收盘价105.980，持平，成交量减少9985；TS主力收盘价102.422，上涨0.01%，成交量减少12243；TL主力收盘价115.160，下跌0.33%，成交量减少19784。[2] - **Futures Spreads**: Multiple spreads showed changes, such as the TL2512 - 2603 spread decreasing by 0.02 to 0.16, and the T12 - TL12 spread increasing by 0.30 to -6.96. [2] - **Futures Positions**: Most of the major contract positions decreased, while the net short positions of some contracts changed. For example, the T主力持仓量 decreased by 28531 to 40332. [2] 3.2 CTD and Bond Yields - **CTD Net Prices**: The net prices of most CTD bonds decreased, except for 250017.IB and 220022.IB which increased slightly. [2] - **Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - 5 and 10 - year active bonds mostly increased, while the 7 - year bond yield decreased by 0.40bp. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 0.09bp to 1.3009%, while the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.40bp to 1.4330%. [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation on November 25. With 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing in November, the net MLF injection was 100 billion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - overs. [2] 3.5 Industry News - An official press conference on consumer - related policies will be held on November 27. - China's full - industry outward direct investment in the first three quarters of this year was 923.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. - The central bank carried out a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation on November 25, showing a moderately loose monetary policy orientation. [2] 3.6 Market Performance and Economic Situation - On Tuesday, most of the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and the treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term strength and medium - to - long - term weakness. - Domestically, economic indicators in October showed a slowdown, with weak loan demand, a decline in export growth, and a slowdown in deposit activation. - Overseas, the US labor data showed contradictions, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5636, down 0.18%. The inventory is rising rapidly, production is slightly falling from a high level, and inventory has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks. The import manganese ore port inventory at the raw material end increased by 33,000 tons. The iron - water demand is seasonally falling. The short - term direction is to be treated as a weak and oscillating operation [2]. - On November 25, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5448, down 0.58%. Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, prices are falling, and this period's inventory has decreased. The short - term direction is to be treated as a weak and oscillating operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,636 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,448 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - The SM futures contract positions were 716,427 lots, down 2,060 lots; the SF futures contract positions were 446,630 lots, up 10,344 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon were - 5,517 lots, up 2,709 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in ferrosilicon were - 17,283 lots, down 1,700 lots [2]. - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 62 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was - 16 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - The SM warehouse receipts were 21,189, up 392; the SF warehouse receipts were 10,841, up 1,802 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton; the price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,270 yuan/ton; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,130 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,220 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 228 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the SM main contract basis was - 186 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly manganese ore port inventory was 426.30 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly manganese - silicon enterprise start - up rate was 39.13%, down 0.46%; the weekly ferrosilicon enterprise start - up rate was 33.81%, down 1.03% [2]. - The weekly manganese - silicon supply was 196,910 tons, down 2,660 tons; the weekly ferrosilicon supply was 108,300 tons, down 800 tons [2]. - The semi - monthly manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 363,000 tons, up 13,500 tons; the semi - monthly ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 73,050 tons, down 8,310 tons [2]. - The monthly manganese - silicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; the monthly ferrosilicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 121,407 tons, up 2,818 tons; the weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19,543 tons, up 469.20 tons [2]. - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 7,199.70 tons, down 149.31 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - UBS expects copper prices to rise next year due to supply shortages caused by continuous disruptions in mine production and strong long - term demand from electrification and clean - energy investments, with a target price of $13,000 in December 2026 [2]. - Hebei's "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of key industries, and improve the competitiveness of Hebei's steel in the global industrial division of labor [2]. 3.7 Profit and Market Pricing - For manganese - silicon, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 260 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 400 yuan/ton. The final November silicon - manganese pricing of HBIS Group was 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. - For ferrosilicon, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 240 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 470 yuan/ton. The November HBIS 75B ferrosilicon tender pricing was 5,680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous round [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, multiple domestic economic indicators weakened, indicating significant downward pressure on the economy, which suppresses the stock market. The continuous unchanged LPR for six months reflects a prudent monetary policy, with a low possibility of significant reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. Although the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on the 24th boosted short - term market risk appetite, in the current environment of multiple vacuums in macro data, performance, and policies, it cannot provide continuous upward momentum, and the stock index will maintain a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2512) rose to 4473.0, up 29.4; the IH main contract (2512) rose to 2959.2, up 10.4; the IC main contract (2512) rose to 6900.0, up 58.0; the IM main contract (2512) rose to 7172.0, up 60.4 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. changed. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread increased to 1513.8, up 23.0; the IC - IF current - month contract spread increased to 2427.0, up 34.6 [2]. - **Seasonal - to - Current Month Differences**: Some seasonal - to - current month differences changed. For example, IF when - season - to - current increased to - 29.0, up 0.2; IH when - season - to - current decreased to - 5.2, down 2.2 [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 20**: The net positions of the top 20 in different contracts changed. For example, the IF top 20 net position increased to - 24,028.00, up 329.0; the IH top 20 net position decreased to - 10,694.00, down 174.0 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of main contracts decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis decreased to - 17.4, down 4.6; the IH main contract basis decreased to - 9.0, down 2.8 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.77%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market turnover increased slightly, and nearly 4300 stocks rose. The communication and media sectors strengthened significantly, while the national defense and military industry and transportation sectors declined [2]. - **Economic Indicators**: In October, domestic imports and exports, fixed - asset investment, social retail sales, and industrial added value of large - scale industries all declined significantly compared to the previous values. The fixed - asset investment declined for 7 consecutive months, and social retail sales declined for 5 consecutive months. The real estate market continued to decline. In terms of financial data, the decline of M1 growth rate was greater than that of M2, and the M1 - M2 scissors - difference ended the 5 - month upward trend. The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged for the 6th consecutive month [2]. 3.3 Industry News - On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Trump said he would visit China in April next year, which boosted short - term market risk appetite [2]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - November 25, 21:30: US September PPI, core PPI, retail sales - November 26, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 - November 26, 23:00: US October PCE, core PCE - November 27, 9:30: China's October industrial enterprise profits above designated size - November 30, 9:30: China's November manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 25, the JM2601 contract closed at 1086.0, down 1.00%. On the spot side, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - aspect shows that the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring thermal coal supply in 2026, weakening the market expectation. Fundamentally, the mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The overall inventory has a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 25, the J2601 contract closed at 1643.0, up 0.98%. On the spot side, the fourth round of price increase for coke has been implemented. The macro - aspect indicates that Fed Governor Waller said the US employment market is still weak, which may lead to a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December 9 - 10 meeting. Fundamentally, the current iron - water output is 236.28 (-0.60) million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1086.00 yuan/ton, down 10.50 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 was 1643.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 882468.00 hands, up 23065.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 was 48757.00 hands, down 420.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 121783.00 hands, down 17327.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 865.00 hands, up 255.00 hands [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 98.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 145.50 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan [2]. - The number of JM warehouse receipts was 0.00; the number of J warehouse receipts was 2070.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1010.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1885.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1560.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the price of Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1780.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1380.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The JM主力合约基差 was 524.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan; the J主力合约基差 was 242.00 yuan/ton, down 10.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.60 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 302.80 million tons, up 2.00 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, unchanged; the monthly raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 193.40 million tons, up 1.50 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 456.90 million tons, down 31.30 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 1038.19 million tons, down 30.78 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills nationwide was 797.08 million tons, up 6.91 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 622.34 million tons, down 0.06 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 12.97 days, up 0.10 days; the weekly available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 11.05 days, down 0.01 days [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, up 0.07% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 19.00 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 million tons [2]. Industry News - On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Xi pointed out that since the Busan meeting, Sino - US relations have generally been stable and improving [2]. - Fed Governor Waller said the existing data shows that the US employment market is still weak, which may lead to a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December 9 - 10 meeting [2]. - UBS said in a report that it expects copper prices to rise next year due to supply shortages caused by continuous disruptions in mine production and strong long - term demand from electrification and clean - energy investment, with a target price of 13000 US dollars in December 2026 [2]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Hebei Province aims to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of key industries, and improve the competitiveness of Hebei's steel in the global industrial division [2].