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瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260205
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 10:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of stable supply and weak demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of excessive supply and weak demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 23,385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum is - 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina is - 198 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [2] - The main - contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum are 207,370 lots, a decrease of 17,386 lots; the main - contract positions of alumina are 359,707 lots, a decrease of 15,991 lots [2] - LME aluminum canceled warrants are 54,525 tons, unchanged; the total inventory of alumina is 265,223 tons, an increase of 42,736 tons [2] - The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum is 3,059 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 495,175 tons, a decrease of 8,014 tons; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.64, a decrease of 0.09 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 21,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 680 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 66,791 tons, unchanged [2] - The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy is - 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan; the inventory of Shanghai Aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 216,771 tons, an increase of 19,718 tons [2] - The main - contract positions of cast aluminum alloy are 4,361 lots, a decrease of 169 lots; the inventory of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 74,068 tons, an increase of 1,635 tons [2] - The warrants of Shanghai Aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 150,289 tons, a decrease of 423 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 23,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 420 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 23,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 23,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,685 yuan/ton, an increase of 480 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] - The aluminum premium and discount in Shanghai Wumao is - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is - 27.72 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.73 US dollars; the basis of alumina is - 235 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region is 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate is 83.49%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points [2] - The alumina output is 801.08 tons, a decrease of 12.72 tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.00%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage point [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 tons, an increase of 25.33 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.90 tons, an increase of 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of broken primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan; the average price of broken primary aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 17,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 194,102.07 tons, an increase of 31,482.14 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 70.80 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 21.00 tons, an increase of 4.00 tons; the import volume of alumina is 22.78 tons, an increase of 31.36 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 77.20 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, an increase of 43,086.86 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,536.20 tons, an increase of 12.00 tons [2] - The export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.30 tons, a decrease of 15,472.39 tons; the aluminum product output is 613.56 tons, an increase of 20.46 tons [2] - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 tons, a decrease of 3.00 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 68.40 tons, a decrease of 1.60 tons [2] - The export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 tons, a decrease of 0.51 tons; the total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 tons, unchanged [2] - The aluminum alloy output is 182.50 tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 [2] - The automobile output is 341.15 vehicles, a decrease of 10.75 vehicles [2] 3.5 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 40.04%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 31.38%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 22.18%, a decrease of 0.0399 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.88, a decrease of 0.0161 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The central bank held the 2026 credit market work conference, focusing on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [2] - The US January "small non - farm" ADP employment number was lower than expected, with only 22,000 new private - sector jobs added in January [2] - The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8, better than market expectations, but new order growth slowed and export orders shrank at the fastest rate since March 2023 [2] - Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue and the need for the US to handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [2] - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January were 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Tesla China's wholesale sales were 69,129, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [2] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that efforts should be made to ensure the basic housing needs of young people, develop affordable rental housing, public rental housing, and配售型保障性住房, and support local governments to appropriately increase the area of affordable housing according to the needs of multi - child families [2]
瑞达期货集运指数(欧线)期货日报-20260205
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 10:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The improvement in macro and commodity sentiment drove up the futures prices. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index declined, and the cancellation of full tax - rebates for photovoltaic products may lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. China's foreign trade improved significantly in December, and it is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2026. Spot freight rates show a trend of price adjustment among shipping companies. Geopolitically, there are risks in the resumption of the Red Sea Canal route. The market is optimistic about the economic recovery in the euro - zone. The current freight market is greatly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to exercise caution [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price is 47.1, up; EC sub - main contract closing price is 1268.2, up 53.9. The spread between EC2604 - EC2606 is - 13.6, down; the spread between EC2604 - EC2608 is - 300, down 5.3. EC contract basis is - 20.6, down. EC main contract open interest is 34661, up 1900 [1] Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) is 1792.14, down 67.17; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) is 1101.40, down 192.92. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) is down 141.11; CCFI (composite index) (weekly) is down 33.16; CCFI (European line) (weekly) is 1574.69, down 13.50. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 1955, up 73; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1685, up 39. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 0, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 20995, down 996 [1] Industry News - Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi clarified the official position of Iran's talks with the US in Oman. The talks will be held in Muscat on February 6. The US previously rejected Iran's proposal to change the meeting location. The situation has caused concerns in the Middle East. US Senate Banking Committee Democrats asked to postpone the nomination process of Kevin Warsh until the criminal investigation of current Fed Chairman Powell is over, but Chairman Tim Scott said the probability of Warsh's nomination being confirmed is 100%. Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue and asking the US to handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [1] Key Points of Attention - Key data to be released on February 6 include Germany's seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate in December, the UK's Halifax seasonally - adjusted house price index monthly rate in January, France's trade balance in December, the US 1 - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value in February, and the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value in February [1]
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260205
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 10:18
尿素产业日报 2026-02-05 续窄幅波动,局部受农业提货带动,部分尿素工厂仍以小幅去库为主,下周春节临近物流减少,企业库存 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 或有上涨趋势,对尿素行情支撑或减弱。UR2605合约短线预计在1765-1820区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1778 | -9 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 36 | 0 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 222810 | -5461 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -11625 | 5657 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 10835 | -134 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1760 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 177 ...
瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260205
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 10:17
卸货速度及提货量变动。需求方面,本周国内甲醇制烯烃开工率提升,宁波富德装置重启后负荷提升,山 数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考,市场有风险,投资需谨慎! 甲醇产业日报 2026-02-05 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2225 | -54 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -47 | -11 -53075 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 858053 | 36109 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -166599 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7082 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2230 | 10 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1797.5 | 12.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 432.5 | -2.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -49 | -22 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 265 | 1 ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20260205
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 10:17
何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 12855 | -460 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 33340 | -2762 | | | 合成橡胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -70 | -25 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 9610 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 12850 | 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 12850 | 50 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 12900 | 东(日,元/吨) 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 12800 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -415 | 20 东(日,元 ...
沪铜产业日报-20260205
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 10:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates weakly, with a decrease in positions and a premium in the spot market, and the basis strengthens. The raw material cost support logic remains strong due to the tight supply of copper concentrate and geopolitical impacts. The domestic copper production may slightly decline due to raw material supply constraints and the approaching holiday. The downstream may have some demand for bargain - hunting inventory replenishment after the significant copper price correction, but the actual transaction is still cautious due to the off - season and the upstream's price - holding sentiment. The domestic copper inventory shows seasonal accumulation. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper are in a stage of slightly converging supply and cautious demand. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 100,980.00 yuan/ton, down 4,180.00 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,999.50 US dollars/ton, down 45.00 US dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 182,336.00 lots, down 10,572.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 58,962.00 lots, down 7,780.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 176,125.00 tons, up 1,450.00 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 233,004.00 tons, up 7,067.00 tons; the LME copper canceled warrants are 37,075.00 tons, down 800.00 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 159,772.00 tons, down 2,856.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,140.00 yuan/ton, down 3,265.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,145.00 yuan/ton, down 3,750.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 36.50 US dollars/ton, up 1.50 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 160.00 yuan/ton, up 915.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - three - month spread is - 81.84 US dollars/ton, down 12.44 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons per month, up 17.80 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 95,230.00 yuan/metal ton, up 3,640.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 95,930.00 yuan/metal ton, up 3,640.00 yuan. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 49.84 US dollars/thousand tons, down 0.05 US dollars. The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 2,200.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan; in the north, it is 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000.00 tons, up 10,000.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,490.00 yuan/ton, up 1,300.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 84,850.00 yuan/ton, up 2,750.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan per month, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8,278.814 billion yuan per month, up 419.724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, up 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 45.07%, up 1.80%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 36.56%, up 1.21%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 32.46%, down 0.0310; the at - the - money option call - to - put ratio is 1.49, up 0.0049 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The central bank held the 2026 credit market work conference, focusing on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. The US January "small non - farm" ADP employment number was lower than expected. The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8 but was better than expected. Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue. The preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association showed that the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January were 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Tesla China's wholesale sales were 69,129, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said to support the housing needs of young people and increase the area of affordable housing [2].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260205
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 10:10
研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9144 | -99 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2238 | -9 | | | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 58 | -7 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -46 | -1 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 278538 | -6705 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 945034 | 18951 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -15472 | -1564 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -259253 | -12568 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 625 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 65 ...
瑞达期货国债期货日报-20260205
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 09:03
1、央行公告称,2月5日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1185亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作 利率1.40%,投标量1185亿元,中标量1185亿元。同时,以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位 中标方式开展了3000亿元14天期逆回购操作。Wind数据显示,当日3540亿元逆回购到期, 据此计算,单日净投放645亿元。 2、财政部、海关总署、税务总局联合印发《关于海南自由贸易港岛内居民消费的进境商品" 零关税"政策的通知》,自公布之日起实施。政策规定,对海南自由贸易港岛内居民在指定经 营场所购买的进境商品,在免税额度和商品清单范围内免征进口关税、进口环节以及国内环节 增值税和消费税。其中,岛内居民包括持有海南省身份证、海南省居住证或海南省社保卡的中 国公民,在海南省工作生活并持有居留证件的境外人员。免税额度为每人每年1万元人民币, 不限购买次数。 3、中国人民银行召开2026年信贷市场工作会议。会议要求,大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、 普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融,强化消费领域金融支持。建设多层次金融服务体系,着力支 持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。继续做好金融支持融资平台债务风险化解工 作,支持地方政府持续 ...
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20260205
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 09:02
股指期货全景日报 2026/2/5 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约(2603) | 最新 4665.2 | 环比 数据指标 -16.4↓ IF次主力合约(2602) | 最新 4671.6 | 环比 -16.4↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约(2603) | 3061.4 | -4.4↓ IH次主力合约(2602) | 3063.6 | -2.2↓ | | | IC主力合约(2603) | 8120.2 | -148.2↓ IC次主力合约(2602) | 8145.0 | -139.0↓ | | | IM主力合约(2603) | 8039.8 | -123.8↓ IM次主力合约(2602) | 8077.8 | -113.4↓ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1608.0 | -19.2↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3473.4 | -148.8↓ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | -67.2 | +23.8↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5081.4 | -168.0↓ | | | IM-IF当月合约 ...
铂钯金期货日报-20260205
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 09:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue. The platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern affected by the gold price. The support level range for London platinum is $1900 - 2000 per ounce, and for London palladium, it is $1500 - 1600 per ounce. [2] - The cooling trend in the US labor market continues, strengthening the medium - term interest rate cut expectation. Against the background of Trump's mid - term election pressure and Wash's past policy flexibility, the Fed's easing path is likely to continue. [2] - The EU's formal postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthening of vehicle exhaust emission standards at the end of last year bring higher platinum loading intensity. Although the global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 540.30 yuan/gram, down 46.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 442.70 yuan/gram, down 8.90 yuan. [2] - The holding volume of the platinum main contract is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the holding volume of the palladium main contract is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 546.47 yuan/gram, down 41.63 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 433.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. [2] - The basis of the platinum main contract is 6.17 yuan/gram, up 5.12 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 9.70 yuan/gram, up 24.90 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. [2] - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. [2] - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.63, up 0.26; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, up 0.02%. [2] - The VIX volatility index is 18.64, up 0.64. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US ISM Services PMI in January slightly declined to 53.8, better than market expectations. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed, and export orders shrank at the fastest pace since March 2023. Employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [2] - The US ADP added 22,000 new jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm employment report on February 11, job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of January CPI on February 13. [2] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified the official stance on Iran's talks with the US in Oman, saying the negotiation will be held in Muscat, Oman's capital, around 10 a.m. on February 6. [2] - The Fed announced that it will not adjust the capital level of large - scale banks in the 2026 stress - test cycle and is currently considering multiple reforms to improve transparency. [2] - The Eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest level since September 2024. The core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Service inflation slowed to 3.2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged this week. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5 at 21:15. [2] - The release time of the US January non - farm employment report is to be determined. [2]