1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production of urea production enterprises increased, with the production reaching 137.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 million tons or 0.92%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, a week - on - week increase of 2.93%, and the upward trend continued. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of production increase was relatively high [2]. - The current agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, with overall trading atmosphere being tepid. Downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods and mostly adopt a just - in - time purchasing strategy. Industrial demand maintains rigid procurement, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions [2]. - As the downstream compound fertilizer industrial demand continues to advance, local agricultural demand shows an increasing trend. Some urea enterprises achieve a balance between production and sales, and the shipment speed of some enterprises accelerates. However, as the urea price rises, the downstream's trend of chasing price increases may slow down, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited [2]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1770 - 1830 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1814 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea was 30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 253,756 lots, a week - on - week increase of 23,507 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea was - 21,087 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 4,047 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 13,355 lots, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong were 1740 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the prices in Jiangsu and Anhui were 1750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 74 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the main Chinese ports were 367.5 dollars/ton and 402.5 dollars/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 140,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 tons; the enterprise inventory was 1.0222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises was 83.22%, a week - on - week increase of 2.93%; the daily urea output was 195,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 tons [2]. - The urea export volume was 600,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600,000 tons; the monthly urea output was 6,000,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 37.17%, a week - on - week increase of 3.28%; the operating rate of melamine was 54.35%, a week - on - week increase of 6.7% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 244 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 152 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 28,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,100 tons or 3.53% [2]. - As of January 8, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 140,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 tons or 18.60%. The quantity of goods leaving the ports increased this week, and some ports were loading and departing. In addition, the pace of manufacturers' goods collection at ports was slow, and most ports remained at a low level under the constraints of quotas and other conditions [2]. - As of January 8, the resumption of some previously overhauled devices drove the increase in domestic urea production. There were no plans for enterprise device shutdowns this week, and the devices of two shut - down enterprises might resume production [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current national cotton inspection in the domestic market is accelerating, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. With the quota issuance, port pick - up has increased, and Brazilian cotton has started to arrive in a concentrated manner, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. As of the week of January 8th, the inventory at major ports of imported cotton increased by 0.55% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 39.95 tons. The downstream textile mills have limited orders, lower than the previous year's level, and some weaving factories may have early holidays. However, due to the general expectation of a decline in cotton planting area in the new year, it provides some support for the cotton market. The market is waiting for the 2026 cotton target subsidy policy. Additionally, the January USDA supply - demand report is bullish, and the center of short - term cotton prices is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and policy factors [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,835 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: -177,257 lots, up 5,200 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: -1,722 lots, up 217 lots - Cotton main contract open interest: 842,369 lots, up 5,210 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest: 15,756 lots, down 276 lots - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 8,836 lots, up 426 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 70 lots, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex: 3128B): 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s): 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff): 12,616 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty): 13,735 yuan/ton, unchanged - Imported cotton yarn (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) arrival price: 21,026 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; imported cotton yarn (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s) arrival price: 22,353 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,330 yuan/ton, down 187 yuan - National industrial inventory of cotton: 85 tons, up 6.5 tons; national commercial inventory of cotton: 468.36 tons, up 175.3 tons - Cotton import volume (monthly): 12 tons, up 3 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons - Imported cotton profit: 2,235 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days - Monthly cloth output: 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 203.9 tons, up 3.8 tons - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export amount: 11,593,686 million US dollars, up 5,902,055,700 US dollars; monthly textile yarns, fabrics and products export amount: 12,275,733,101,731.408 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options: 13.12%, down 0.23%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options: 13.12%, down 0.22% - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 13.49%, up 0.15%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 8.98%, up 0.14% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of 24:00 on January 12, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2025/26 season was 30,208,714 bales, totaling 6,819,192 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.20%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6,592,380 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.45% - ICE cotton futures were generally stable on Tuesday, supported by the USDA supply - demand report. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.03 cents, or 0.05%, at 64.88 cents per pound [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall data of the domestic sugar market is neutral to bearish, with a year - on - year decrease in both sugar production and sales in Guangxi in February, while Yunnan has a faster sugar production progress and slightly better sales than the same period last year. However, the market's expectation of the decline in Brazil's export prospects supports the sugar market, and sugar prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5299 yuan/ton, with a change of 46; the main contract position is 428965 hands, a decrease of 984. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 240, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 65851 hands, an increase of 2305. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1829, a decrease of 240. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4086 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15. The estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5112 yuan/ton, and the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5178 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Nanning, Guangxi is 5370 yuan/ton, an increase of 10; the spot price in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60. The sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24. The cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi is 8.94 million tons, a decrease of 593.35. The cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 million tons, a decrease of 237.4. The total export volume of Brazilian sugar is 291.3 million tons, an increase of 15 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 212 yuan/ton, an increase of 20; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 1238 yuan/ton, an increase of 19. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota and outside the quota (50% tariff) is also provided. The monthly import volume of sugar is 44 million tons, a decrease of 31, and the cumulative import volume is 434 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 130.3 million tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1045.7 million tons, a decrease of 50.5 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for sugar is 9.24%, a decrease of 0.22; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is also 9.24%, a decrease of 0.22. The 20 - day historical volatility is 10.83%, an increase of 0.01; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.63%, an increase of 0.09 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Unica, in the first half of December 2025, sugarcane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%; sugar production was 254,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.80%. As of December 16, 2025/26 crushing season (April 2025 - March 2026), the cumulative sugarcane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, the cumulative sugar production was 40.158 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.91%, 2.72 percentage points higher than 48.19% in the same period last year. ICE's most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose on Tuesday due to the decline in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of December [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary and Prompt Attention - The futures closed up 0.05 cents or 0.30%, at 14.89 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the production and sales data of the main producing areas showed that in December, the monthly sugar production in Guangxi was 1.808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 tons, and the monthly sugar sales was 795,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 551,800 tons. As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan was 392,300 tons, higher than 326,900 tons in the same period of the previous crushing season; the cumulative sugar sales in Yunnan was 281,400 tons, compared with 267,100 tons in the same period last year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is in the peak season but has declined from the high level. The supply - demand shows a weak balance, and the live pig price continues the volatile trend. The live pig 2603 contract rose in the afternoon, closing up 1.82% [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the futures main contract for live pigs is 12,010 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 215; the main contract position volume is 168,526 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 7,459; the number of warehouse receipts is 855 lots, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 51,836 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 649 [2] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 13,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; in Siping, Jilin is 12,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis of live pigs is 990 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 115 [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 43,680 ten thousand heads, with a month - on - month increase of 1,233; the inventory of breeding sows is 3,990 ten thousand heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 45 [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year increase of CPI is 0.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,120 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; the spot price of corn is 2,357.55 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.59; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 905.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.39; the monthly output of feed is 29.779 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 209,000; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,429 yuan/head, with no change; the breeding profit of purchasing piglets is - 2.31 yuan/head, with a month - on - month increase of 46.04; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs is - 11.54 yuan/head, with a month - on - month increase of 23.05; the monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10,000; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 13.5 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 [2] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 39.57 million heads, with a month - on - month increase of 1.23 million; the monthly value of catering revenue in total retail sales of social consumer goods is 605.7 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 85.8 billion [2] Industry News - Mysteel data shows that on January 14, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs by key provincial sample slaughtering enterprises was 148,178, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%. The January sample enterprise slaughter plan decreased month - on - month. Currently, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms has recovered compared with that after the Spring Festival, but the overall slaughter volume is average [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates at a high level, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, on the raw material side, the spot TC processing index of copper concentrate runs at a low level, and the domestic copper ore supply remains tight, providing strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, due to the high prices of copper and smelting by - products such as sulfuric acid, smelters are still actively producing, and the production schedule in January is expected to maintain a slight growth trend. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing sentiment is still cautious due to high copper prices, and the growth of new orders in the downstream is limited due to the off - season, so the trading volume in the spot market is still light, and industrial inventories are accumulating. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight supply increase and cautious demand, with social inventories accumulating. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.54, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0044, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The view is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 104,120 yuan/ton, up 1,830 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,176 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 250 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 241,222 lots, up 68,262 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 75,925 lots, down 8,758 lots. The LME copper inventory is 141,550 tons, up 4,325 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 180,543 tons, up 35,201 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 51,825 tons, up 29,750 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 149,339 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 103,915 yuan/ton, up 1,405 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 104,115 yuan/ton, up 1,800 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 43 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 37 dollars/ton, down 1.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 205 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 90.23 dollars/ton, up 25.92 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 45.41 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.43 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 94,400 yuan/metal ton, up 1,820 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 95,100 yuan/metal ton, up 1,820 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 123.60 million tons, up 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 437,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 68,800 yuan/ton, down 690 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 84,100 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.60 million tons, up 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 26.23%, down 0.93%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.38%, up 0.13%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 32.34%, down 0.0151%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.54, down 0.0044 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.6%, both unchanged from the previous value. Affected by the long - term "shutdown" of the US federal government, the reference value of this data for the market to predict the future policy path of the Federal Reserve may be weakened. The CME FedWatch shows that the market expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate unchanged in January 2026 with a probability as high as 95%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th symposium for manufacturing enterprises, with 12 enterprise leaders from key industries participating. The meeting emphasized actively participating in industry rule - making and self - regulatory mechanism construction and consciously resisting "involution". The President of the St. Louis Fed said that there is currently little reason to further ease monetary policy in the short term because the Fed's policy rate is at a "near - neutral" level. Shanghai introduced 28 measures to promote the quality improvement and efficiency increase of the service industry and the expansion of consumption. The China Automobile Dealers Association data shows that in 2025, the trading volume of the Chinese used - car market exceeded 20 million vehicles for the first time, reaching 20.108 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%, and the trading volume of new - energy used cars reached 1.6 million vehicles, accounting for 7.9% [2].

玉米系产业日报 2026-01-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 2284 -14 | -6 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 4 玉米淀粉月间价差(3-5):(日,元/吨) | 2561 -30 | -5 0 | | | | | 吨) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | 1099156 | 6449 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 197666 | -1451 | | | | | 8469 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -152819 | | -41793 | -1777 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) | 38148 | 73 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) 手) | 12477 | 0 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The acquisition of Xinjiang grey jujubes has ended, and the market focus has shifted to the consumer side. As of January 8, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from last week, a 2.23% month - on - month decrease and a 41.27% year - on - year increase. The sample point inventory decreased month - on - month. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the overall circulation of market goods is stable. Traders commonly hoard raw materials in Xinjiang. As the twelfth lunar month approaches, the festival stocking demand is expected to drive the market into a phased peak of sales. The actual sales speed at the terminal and the inventory performance of channels need to be closely monitored in the future [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujubes was 9,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 121,852 lots, a decrease of 1980 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1,161 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 2,981 lots; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 400 lots, a decrease of 72 lots [2]. Spot Market - The unified price of Kashgar jujubes was 6.5 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - class grey jujubes in Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin. - The unified price of Alar jujubes was 5.65 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - class grey jujubes in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin. - The unified price of Aksu jujubes was 5.15 yuan/kg; the price of special - grade jujubes in Henan was 9.5 yuan/kg. - The price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei was 9.49 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the price of special - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 10 yuan/kg; the price of first - class jujubes in Guangdong was 8.8 yuan/kg [2]. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output was 3.187 million tons, and the planting area was 6.069 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1% [2]. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory this week was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons. - The monthly jujube export volume was 3,537,566 kg, an increase of 1,332,346 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume was 29,291,188 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of HaoXiangNi jujubes was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative quarterly year - on - year production increase was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59%. - The average daily arrival of jujubes at Ruyifang Market was 0.8 vehicles per week; the monthly average wholesale price of jujubes was 10.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.46 yuan/kg. - Four vehicles of jujubes arrived at Hebei Cuierzhuang Market, including sub - standard and finished products. Local processing plants mainly processed and sold their own goods, and holders were actively selling. Downstream merchants purchased as needed, and some holders reported better sales. Four vehicles of jujubes arrived at the Guangdong market, the market price was temporarily stable, and downstream buyers were more active [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate fundamentals are in a stage of slight increase in supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 166,980 yuan/ton, up 10,920 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 136,111 lots, up 1,772 lots; the position of the main contract was 460,281 lots, down 46,421 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 4,360 yuan/ton, up 6,300 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 26,898 lots/ton, up 928 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,500 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 7,480 yuan/ton, down 3,420 yuan [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 130 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 18,500 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 6,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume was 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume was 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh [2]. - **Downstream and Application Situation**: The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 50%, down 1 percentage point; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 60%, down 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,880,000 units, up 108,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,823,000 units, up 108,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 47.48%, up 0.74 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 14,780,000 units, up 3,518,000 units; the monthly export volume was 300,000 units, up 44,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 2.315 million units, up 1.174 million units [2]. - **Option Situation**: The total call position was 65,420 contracts, up 4,295 contracts; the total put position was 94,168 contracts, up 6,167 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions was 143.94%, down 0.0252 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.65%, up 0.0929 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce released a briefing on the progress of consultations in the China - EU electric vehicle case. The China - EU agreed to provide general guidance on price commitments to Chinese exporters of pure electric vehicles to the EU. It is expected that from 2026 to 2028, China's electric vehicle exports to the EU will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 20% [2]. - Xici Technology's sales revenue in the lithium - ion battery industry accounts for more than half. The lithium - ion battery industry shows signs of recovery, mainly driven by the growth of power battery and energy storage demand [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve supporting systems, issue management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, and revise the guidance catalog for industrial structure adjustment [2]. - In December 2025, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports were 18,341 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.68%. Exports to China decreased, while exports to South Korea and Japan increased [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: As lithium carbonate prices rise, lithium ore prices increase. There may be hedging space, and domestic supply is slightly increasing. Downstream battery cathode material manufacturers have low acceptance of high - priced lithium and mainly adopt a rigid - demand procurement strategy, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - **Options**: The put - call ratio of option positions is 143.94%, down 0.0252% month - on - month, indicating a bearish sentiment in the option market, and the implied volatility slightly increases [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are converging [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market currently has relatively sufficient supply with accelerated national cotton inspection and increased port pick - up after quota issuance. Brazilian cotton is arriving in a concentrated manner, leading to an increase in inventory. As of the week ending January 8th, the inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 0.55% week - on - week, reaching a total of 39.95 million tons [2]. - Downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, lower than the previous year's level. Some fabric mills may have early holidays. However, the expected decline in cotton planting area in the new year provides some support to the cotton market. The January US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report is positive, and the short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to macro and policy impacts [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,760 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,765 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 182,457 lots, down 11,680 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,939 lots, down 89 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract positions: 837,159 lots, up 19,206 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions: 16,032 lots, down 153 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: 8,410 lots, up 642 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 70 lots, up 10 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,783 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,300 yuan/ton [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,616 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,735 yuan/ton [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S arrival price): 21,025 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S arrival price): 22,352 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,517 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume (monthly): 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit: 2,048 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days [2]. - Cloth output (monthly): 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; yarn output (monthly): 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons [2]. - Clothing and clothing accessories export amount (monthly): 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, up 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; textile yarn, fabric and products export amount (monthly): 12,275,733 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 13.12%, down 0.23%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 13.12%, down 0.22% [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 13.34%, up 0.14%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 8.84%, up 0.05% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the 2025/26 US cotton January supply - demand outlook, compared with December, production and ending stocks decreased, while beginning stocks and imports remained unchanged. Production decreased by over 2% to 13.9 million bales, mainly due to the decline in the Delta region. The national average yield decreased by 8% to 856 pounds per acre. Ending stocks decreased by 7% to 4.2 million bales [2]. - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday. The US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report predicted stable cotton demand and lowered production estimates. The weaker US dollar and the rise in the broader commodity market further boosted cotton prices. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed up 0.50 cents, or 0.78%, at 64.91 cents per pound [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The overall data of the domestic sugar market is slightly bearish, but the market's expectation of a decline in Brazil's export prospects supports the sugar market. In the short term, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar was 5253 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan; the main contract position was 429949 lots, a decrease of 1446 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9499, an increase of 560; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions was -68156 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 2069, a decrease of 560 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the import processing estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4086 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5178 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Yunnan Kunming was 5230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi Nanning was 5360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi Liuzhou was 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1480 thousand hectares; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 8.94 million tons; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan was 4.48 million tons; the total export volume of Brazilian sugar was 291.3 million tons, a decrease of 38.9 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1288 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1238 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 146 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume of sugar was 44 million tons, a decrease of 31 million tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar was 434 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 130.3 million tons, an increase of 42 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1045.7 million tons, a decrease of 50.5 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 9.24%, a decrease of 0.22%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 9.24%, a decrease of 0.22%; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 10.82%, a decrease of 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.54%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 74.05 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 12.34 million tons, a 32% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 9.37 million tons in January of the previous year. The total export volume in January of the previous year was 206.2 million tons. The ICE raw sugar futures fell on Monday, but the decline was limited by the weakening of the US dollar. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures fell 0.05 cents or 0.30%, settling at 14.84 cents per pound [2]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - In December, the monthly sugar output in Guangxi was 180.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.1 million tons, and the monthly sales volume was 79.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.18 million tons. As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar output in Yunnan was 39.23 million tons, higher than 32.69 million tons in the same period of the previous crushing season; the cumulative sugar sales volume in Yunnan was 28.14 million tons, compared with 26.71 million tons in the same period of last year [2].