1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand drivers for PE are not significant. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. Pay attention to the support around 6640 and the resistance around 6890 on the daily K - line [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6766 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 6550 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 6766 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; and the 9 - month contract was 6802 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 554,956 lots, up 54,133 lots; the open interest was 477,388 lots, down 13,392 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was - 216, up 15 [2] - The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 436,415 lots, down 4,705 lots; the short position was 481,212 lots, down 15,961 lots; the net long position was - 44,797 lots, up 11,256 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6795.22 yuan/ton, up 101.74 yuan; in East China, it was 6844.42 yuan/ton, up 88.14 yuan [2] - The basis was 29.22, up 72.74 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in the Singapore region was 59.32 US dollars/barrel, up 0.75 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 558 US dollars/ton, up 6.75 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 711 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 731 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film was 48.96%, up 0.55 percentage points; for PE pipes, it was 29.5%, down 0.67 percentage points; for PE agricultural film, it was 37.89%, down 1.06 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 17.27%, up 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.35%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.09%, up 0.68 percentage points; for at - the - money call options, it was 16.09%, up 0.69 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's polyethylene production totaled 686,800 tons, up 0.52% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene producers was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points [2] - From January 2nd to 8th, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.1% week - on - week. The agricultural film operating rate decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, and the packaging film operating rate increased by 0.6% week - on - week [2] - As of January 7th, the inventory of PE producers was 395,400 tons, up 6.66% from the previous week; as of January 2nd, the social inventory of PE was 484,800 tons, up 2.04% from the previous week [2] - From January 3rd to 9th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.56% to 6920 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 159 yuan/ton to - 472 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.50% to 6397 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 97 yuan/ton to 34 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA monthly supply and demand report is overall bearish, dragging down US soybeans significantly. The domestic rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with tight near - term supply due to import restrictions and oil mill shutdowns, but increased marginal supply as Australian rapeseeds arrive. The market is expected to face greater long - term supply pressure due to the expected increase in global and Canadian rapeseed production and the possible improvement in China - Canada trade relations. The rapeseed meal market generally maintains a weak and volatile trend [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the domestic market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseeds for crushing and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed oil market oscillated slightly higher today, boosted by the strengthening of palm oil [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9017 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2314 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 621.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.6 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5460 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 31 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 64 yuan/ton, down 6401 yuan. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil were 251744 lots, up 13 lots; those of rapeseed meal were 834183 lots, unchanged. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 15118 lots, up 3680 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 156275 lots, down 34541 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil had 2622 warehouse receipts, up 330; rapeseed meal had 84 warehouse receipts, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9956.25 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7460.96 yuan/ton, down 20.89 yuan [2]. - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 833 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract was 76 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1270 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; Chinese rapeseed production annual forecast was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Rapeseed imports in the current month were 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons. Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 488 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Imports and inventories: Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; rapeseed meal imports were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons. Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 25.15 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production in the current month was 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry in the current month were 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Market News and Views - Market news: On January 12, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the expected increase in global and Canadian rapeseed production by the USDA. The market is looking forward to the visit of Canadian Prime Minister Carney to China this week. The USDA monthly supply and demand report showed an increase in US and Brazilian soybean production and exports, which was bearish for the market [2]. - Rapeseed meal view: The domestic rapeseed meal market has tight near - term supply but faces long - term supply pressure. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2]. - Rapeseed oil view: The domestic rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price. However, long - term supply pressure is increasing. The market oscillated slightly higher today, boosted by the strengthening of palm oil [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of pure benzene in China are expected to remain in a slightly loose balance. The short - term BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with a daily range around 5480 - 5650 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract is 5584 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the settlement price is 5556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The trading volume is 16727 lots, down 9958 lots; the open interest is 29870 lots, down 159 lots [2] - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions are 5405 yuan/ton, 5300 yuan/ton, 5400 yuan/ton, and 5315 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 70 yuan, 80 yuan, 100 yuan, and 92 yuan [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions are 5525 yuan/ton and 5045 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of 150 yuan and 0 yuan [2] - The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea is 688 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China is 689.89 dollars/ton, up 14.82 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 65.75 dollars/barrel, down 0.23 dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 558 dollars/ton, up 6.75 dollars [2] - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 74.38%, down 0.8%; the weekly output is 43.71 tons, up 0.16 tons [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory of pure benzene is 31.8 tons, up 1.8 tons; the production cost is 4914.6 yuan/ton, down 78.65 yuan; the production profit is 395 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 70.92%, up 0.69%; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 74.22% (down 1.3%), 85.37% (up 5.64%), 61.31% (up 1.5%), and 67.6% (down 0.6%) respectively [2] Industry News - From January 3rd to 9th, the开工率 of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.80% to 74.38%, and the开工率 of hydrogenated benzene increased by 1.66% to 61.66% [2] - From January 3rd to 9th, the weighted开工率 of pure benzene downstream increased by 1.01% to 72.35% [2] - As of January 12th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 32.4 tons, up 1.89% from last week [2] - From January 2nd to 8th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 64 yuan/ton to 395 yuan/ton [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 24,375.00 | 环比 数据指标 -275.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,780.00 | -86.00↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -80.00 | +5.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -213.00 | -16.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 370,981.00 | -8100.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 553,364.00 | +7569.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 49,775.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The apple industry shows short - term potential for a slightly strong and volatile trend due to increased holiday stocking demand despite a sluggish sales situation in the distribution market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,779 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 149; the main contract's open interest is 139,730 lots, up 10,729; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5,404 lots, down 860 [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shaanxi Luochuan, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 5.25 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, 2.4 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively, with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, and the price of second - grade fruit farmer goods is 168.34 yuan/jin [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.43 yuan/kg, up 0.06; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.17 yuan/kg, down 0.02; the national total apple cold - storage inventory is 720.9 million tons, down 12.66 million tons week - on - week; the capacity utilization ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi are 0.52 and 0.55 respectively, down 0.01 each; the monthly apple export volume is 120,000 tons, up 40,000 tons; the monthly year - on - year growth rate of apple export amount is 16.2%, up 30.5; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,117,946 million US dollars, down 216,418 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale prices of pears, bananas, and watermelons are 6.71 yuan/kg, 5.84 yuan/kg, and 6.93 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of - 0.04, 0.03, and 0.05; the weekly average daily arrival vehicle numbers at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets are 12.4, 17, and 23.6 respectively, with decreases of 4.85, 4.25, and 8.15 [2] Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for apples are 26.33%, with week - on - week increases of 0.09 and 0.12 respectively [2] Industry Status - Apple trading in production areas has changed little. Gansu and Liaoning have good trading and smooth sales. Shaanxi and Shandong mainly rely on merchants' self - stored goods. The number of inquiries for fruit farmer goods has increased, but actual purchases are limited, with most in a wait - and - see attitude. In late - Fuji production areas, the number of inquiring customers has increased slightly, with different trading atmospheres in each area. Fruit farmer goods are mainly concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning, and the sales in other areas have not accelerated significantly [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index in the raw material end of the fundamentals is running at a low level, and the domestic copper ore supply is still tight, with relatively strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, as copper prices and the prices of smelting by - products such as sulfuric acid are all at high levels, smelters are still relatively active in production. It is reported that the production schedule in January is expected to maintain a slight growth trend. On the demand side, the downstream procurement sentiment is still cautious due to high copper prices, and the growth of new downstream orders is limited due to the off - season, so the trading volume in the spot market is still light, and industrial inventories are accumulating. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight supply increase and cautious demand, with social inventories accumulating. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.55, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0087, the option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are expanding. The view is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 102,290.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,510.00 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 13,133.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 76.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 190.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract was 172,960.00 lots, a decrease of 9,731.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 75,925.00 lots, a decrease of 8,758.00 lots. The LME copper inventory was 137,225.00 tons, a decrease of 1,750.00 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 180,543.00 tons, an increase of 35,201.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 22,075.00 tons, a decrease of 1,550.00 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 122,127.00 tons, a decrease of 2,856.00 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 102,510.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 725.00 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 102,315.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 890.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 38.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.00 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 220.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 785.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 64.31 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22.37 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 252.62 million tons, an increase of 7.47 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 45.41 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.43 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 92,580.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 900.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 93,280.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 900.00 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper was 2,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee for blister copper was 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The output of refined copper was 123.60 million tons, an increase of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000.00 tons, a decrease of 10,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 69,490.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 84,650.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products was 222.60 million tons, an increase of 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 5,603.90 billion yuan, an increase of 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 78,590.90 billion yuan, an increase of 5,028.20 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,392,000.00 million pieces, an increase of 215,000.00 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 27.16%, an increase of 0.40%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 22.25%, an increase of 0.32%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 33.85%, an increase of 0.0413%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.55, a decrease of 0.0087 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, actions to rejuvenate traditional industries, "Artificial Intelligence +" actions, and actions to develop and expand emerging industries and create new driving forces will be implemented. Focus on fields such as quantum technology, humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, deep - sea polar regions, and 6G to strengthen technological research, product development, enterprise cultivation, and ecological construction. The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters. Powell responded that this move is unprecedented and should be viewed in the context of the continuous threats from the Trump administration to the Federal Reserve, aiming to further pressure him on the issue of interest rate cuts. The Ministry of Commerce reported on the progress of consultations on the China - EU electric vehicle case. The EU will issue a "Guidance Document on Submitting Price Commitment Applications" and confirm that it will adhere to the principle of non - discrimination, apply the same legal standards to each price commitment application in accordance with relevant WTO rules, and conduct evaluations in an objective and fair manner. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products issued a statement saying that it will encourage and support the involved enterprises to make full use of the consultation results and strive for their export rights to the EU by applying for price commitments. The new collective bargaining at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile remains deadlocked due to continued production disruptions caused by strikes. The union said in a statement that the labor department has notified them that the company will no longer have union emergency personnel to maintain facility operations because the company "failed to meet legal requirements and submitted documents late" [2].

沪锌产业日报 2026-01-13 强，上行通道上沿阻力。观点参考：预计沪锌偏强调整，关注MA10支撑，区间2.4-2.5。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24235 | 110 02-03月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -45 | 5 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3216 | 62.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 229686 | 7326 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA5 support and test the upper 390,000 - yuan mark [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 379,330 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,410 yuan; the 2 - 3 month contract closing price is - 680 yuan, with a change of 30 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 47,967 dollars/ton, with a change of 2,407 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 42,853 lots, a decrease of 7,782 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 3,845 lots, a decrease of 3,059 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 5,905 tons, an increase of 490 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,935 tons, a decrease of 1,001 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 115 tons, a decrease of 10 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,245 tons, a decrease of 88 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 380,200 yuan/ton, with a change of 11,650 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 380,350 yuan/ton, with a change of 9,670 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 8,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,580 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 88.01 dollars/ton, a decrease of 58.01 dollars. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 356,550 yuan/ton, with a change of 18,800 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 360,550 yuan/ton, with a change of 18,800 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 8,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The report does not provide new information other than the data in the spot market section. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 241,930 yuan/ton, with a change of 7,040 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons, an increase of 14.47 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons [3]. Industry News - The EU plans to adjust high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and replace them with a minimum price mechanism, indicating a relaxation of trade tensions. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, said that efforts will be made to achieve new breakthroughs in future manufacturing, future information, and future materials, focusing on fields such as quantum technology, humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, deep - sea polar regions, and 6G [3]. Viewpoint Summary - On the macro - level, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology aims for new breakthroughs in future - related fields. On the fundamental level, the domestic tin ore import supply is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the supply in other regions is still unstable, and the overall tin ore import volume is at a low level. In the smelting sector, the raw material of tin ore is in short supply, most enterprises' raw material inventories are low, and most enterprises are operating at a loss. It is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted and lack year - on - year growth. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. Recently, the import window is approaching to open, increasing the import pressure. On the demand side, the tin price has adjusted at a high level recently, the downstream procurement willingness is relatively strong, the inventory decline is better than expected, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory is stable, and the spot premium has increased. Technically, the position has slightly decreased, the price has adjusted, and the bullish sentiment is strong [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The laying - hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment at the breeding end is still lower than the same period last year, which is beneficial for the long - term price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the recent slight rebound in egg prices has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for culling old hens. High production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, the near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level oscillation state. The far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones under the expectation of declining production capacity, and investors can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2990 yuan/500 kilograms, down 30 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 17657 hands, up 2367 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 401 yuan/500 kilograms, down 17 yuan; the futures open interest (active contract) of eggs is 272149 hands, up 1928 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 3 hands, down 2 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.48 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 486 yuan/500 kilograms, up 109 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying - hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), down 2.21; the culled laying - hen index nationwide is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), down 13.26; the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas is 2.9 yuan/feather, up 0.1 yuan; the new - chick index nationwide is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), up 26.53; the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.29 yuan/hen, up 0.1 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas is 8.16 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan; the culling age of hens nationwide is 500 days, down 10 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.04 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.71 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, up 0.09 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, up 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7377 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 7.06 yuan/kg, up 0.29 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.51 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.04 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan from yesterday [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term EB2602 is expected to fluctuate strongly. The spot supply - demand balance is expected to continue, providing some support for prices. The cost of international oil prices has support, while the pure benzene price support is limited. The industry's operating rate may remain at a moderately low level, and the downstream operating rate will change differently [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures was 7028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the trading volume was 352,157 lots, a decrease of 155,060 lots. The long position of the top 20 holders was 375,459 lots, an increase of 594 lots; the net long position was - 37,350 lots, a decrease of 3,919 lots; the short position was 412,809 lots, an increase of 4,513 lots. The closing price of the March contract was 7081 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan. The open interest of the active contract was 242,728 lots, a decrease of 15,148 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 360 lots, an increase of 60 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6964 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan. The FOB Korea intermediate price was 895 dollars/ton, an increase of 29 dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 905 dollars/ton, an increase of 29 dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6925, 7270, 7050, and 7170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 200, 165, 175, and 200 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 731 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 711 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 745.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 19.5 dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 399.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 682.6 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 277 cents/gallon, an increase of 2 cents; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 789 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars. The market prices in South, East, and North China were 5400, 5405, and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 100, 70, and 80 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 70.92%, an increase of 0.69%. The national inventory of styrene was 162,340 tons, a decrease of 9,420 tons; the inventory in the East China main port was 10.06 million tons, a decrease of 3.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 46.72%, 69.8%, 58.9%, 39%, and 81.68% respectively, with changes of +3.08%, - 0.1%, - 1.5%, +3%, and +1.16% [2]. Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's styrene factory output was 355,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 259,700 tons. As of January 8th, the styrene factory inventory was 162,300 tons, a decrease of 5.48% from last week; as of January 12th, the styrene inventory in East China ports was 100,600 tons, a decrease of 23.96% from last week [2]. Viewpoint Summary - There are no new plans for shutdown or restart of large - scale domestic styrene plants in the near future. The industry's operating rate may remain at a moderately low level. The operating rate of downstream EPS may increase slightly in the short term; the operating rate of the PS industry is expected to decline; the short - term supply of the ABS industry will not change much. The spot supply - demand balance is expected to continue, providing some support for prices. The international oil price has support, while the pure benzene price support is limited [2].