观点总结（ 淀粉） 截至1月14日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量110万吨，较上周下降2.50万吨，周降幅2.22%，月降幅0.18%；年同比增幅21.48 %。企业库存仍处于同期高位，总体供应压力仍存。不过，春节临近，下游淀粉糖，造纸等下游领域进入生产旺季，淀粉需求有所 增加。关注春节前下游备货对玉米淀粉价格带动情况。盘面来看，今日淀粉市场随玉米同步回落，短期观望。 重点关注 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 玉米系产业日报 2026-01-14 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old chicken culls. The laying hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment at the breeding end is still lower than the same period last year, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the recent continuous recovery of egg prices has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for culling old chickens. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, the near - month contract may be in a wide - range low - level shock state. The far - month contract is expected to perform better than the near - month contract under the expectation of declining production capacity, and it is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contract with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3007 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 17; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for eggs is - 11868 hands; the egg futures spread between May and September is - 400 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 1; the egg futures open interest of the active contract is 264783 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 7366; the registered warehouse receipt volume for eggs is 0 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.5 yuan/jin, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02; the basis (spot - futures) is 493 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 7 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 112.03, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.21; the national culled laying hen index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 101.18, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.26; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas (weekly, yuan/feather) is 2.9, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1; the national new - hatched chick index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 93.62, with a month - on - month increase of 26.53; the average price of laying hen compound feed (weekly, yuan/kg) is 2.8, with no change; the breeding profit of laying hens (weekly, yuan/head) is - 0.29, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas (weekly, yuan/kg) is 8.16, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26; the culled chicken age in the whole country (monthly, days) is 500, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork (daily, yuan/kg) is 18.06, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables (daily, yuan/kg) is 5.51, with no change; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens (daily, yuan/kg) is 17.78, with a month - on - month increase of 0.07; the weekly inventory in the circulation link (weekly, days) is 1.21, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09; the weekly inventory in the production link (weekly, days) is 1.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs (monthly, tons) is 13394.53, with a month - on - month increase of 178.74 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas (weekly, tons) is 7377, with no change [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 7.09 yuan/kg, up 0.03 from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.55 yuan/kg, up 0.04 from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.04 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of January 14th, China's methanol port inventory decreased significantly due to a small total unloading volume, but the overall volume remains at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. [3] - Although the load of many MTO enterprises in East China was reduced last week, the load of inland enterprises increased, resulting in a slight increase in the weekly average operation of domestic methanol - to - olefins. With the implementation of the later East China MTO maintenance plan, there is an expectation of a load reduction in the short - term MTO industry. [3] - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was 0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. [3] - The open interest of the main methanol contract was 823,784 lots, a decrease of 6,246 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 146,595 lots, an increase of 18,580 lots. [3] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 7,655, with no change. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2255 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 33 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [3] - The CFR price of methanol at China's main port was 268 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, with no change. [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 260 euros/ton, with no change; the price difference between China's main port and Southeast Asia was - 54 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.38 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 US dollars/million British thermal units. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 1.1233 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 76,200 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 413,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,400 tons. [3] - The methanol import profit was - 32.17 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.22 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 195,000 tons. [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises was 450,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 34.07%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.17 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 2.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points. [3] - The acetic acid operating rate was 76.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.31 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 67.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points. [3] - The olefin operating rate was 88.06%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 1074 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 19.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 percentage points. [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 25.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 25.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points. [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 14th, the inventory of China's sampled methanol production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%; the orders to be delivered by sampled enterprises were 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [3] - As of January 14th, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 17,500 tons. [3] - Recently, the production loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the production increase due to recovery, resulting in an overall decrease in production. [3] - As of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The report analyzes the current situation of the rapeseed industry, including futures and spot markets, upstream and downstream conditions, and industry news. It points out that the market is affected by factors such as international trade relations, supply and demand, and USDA reports [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic supply of rapeseed meal is tight in the near - term due to import restrictions and oil - mill shutdowns. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the marginal supply increases. The USDA report is bearish, dragging down the market. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and fluctuates with soybean meal [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Domestic oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, which supports the price and keeps the basis at a high level. But the expected arrival of Australian rapeseed and the possible improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed changed. For example, the closing price of rapeseed oil was 8949 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2289 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The positions and net buying volumes of the top 20 futures contracts for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed, and the number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil decreased [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and related substitutes such as soybean oil, palm oil, and soybean meal changed. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures and the price spreads between different varieties changed [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: Global and domestic rapeseed production and import data are presented. For example, the global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Operation**: The import rapeseed crushing profit increased, and the weekly starting rate of imported rapeseed was 0% [2]. Industry Situation - **Imports and Stocks**: The import volumes of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed changed, and the inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and other regions also changed [2]. - **Operation and Sales**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil decreased, and that of rapeseed meal remained unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The production of feed and edible vegetable oil and the retail sales of catering services changed [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied and historical volatilities of call and put options for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed [2]. Industry News - **Futures Movement**: ICE rapeseed futures rose following the increase in CBOT soybean oil futures, and the market awaited the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [2]. - **USDA Report**: The USDA monthly supply - demand report was bearish, with increased soybean production forecasts in the US and Brazil [2]. Key Points of Concern - The opening rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in different regions, as well as the development of China - Canada trade relations are the key points to watch [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - A-share market still has many positive factors in the current situation. China's trade surplus in 2025 hit a record high, and net exports are expected to support the GDP of that year. Although the Fed's rate - cut expectations have decreased and the US dollar index has strengthened, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel. The strong exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in Q1, and the stock market is gradually converging with the foreign exchange market. Also, due to the relatively late Spring Festival this year, the market has started to trade the policy expectations of the Two Sessions in early March in advance, and the A - share spring market is significantly advanced [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: - IF main contract (2603) closed at 4740.0, down 14.0; IF secondary main contract (2601) closed at 4737.6, down 30.2. - IH main contract (2603) closed at 3114.0, down 19.6; IH secondary main contract (2601) closed at 3109.0, down 24.8. - IC main contract (2603) closed at 8197.8, up 76.6; IC secondary main contract (2601) closed at 8221.0, up 52.6. - IM main contract (2603) closed at 8156.0, up 5.2; IM secondary main contract (2601) closed at 8242.0, up 6.2 [2] - **Futures Price Spreads**: - IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1628.6, down 1.0; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 3483.4, up 76.8. - IM - IC current - month contract spread was 21.0, down 40.0; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 5112.0, up 75.8. - IM - IF current - month contract spread was 3504.4, up 36.8; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 5133.0, up 35.8 [2] - **Futures Seasonal Spreads**: - IF current - season minus current - month was 2.4, up 10.0; IF next - season minus current - month was - 40.8, up 10.4. - IH current - season minus current - month was 5.0, up 4.0; IH next - season minus current - month was 3, up 11.0. - IC current - season minus current - month was - 23.2, up 18.4; IC next - season minus current - month was - 182.2, up 5.4. - IM current - season minus current - month was - 86.0, down 12.6; IM next - season minus current - month was - 277, down 3.6 [2] - **Futures Net Positions of Top 20**: - IF top 20 net positions were - 41,343.00, up 533.0. - IH top 20 net positions were - 16,409.00, up 1004.0. - IC top 20 net positions were - 32,805.00, up 3053.0. - IM top 20 net positions were - 50,614.00, up 526.0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: - CSI 300 closed at 4741.93, down 19.1; IF main contract basis was - 1.9, up 0.5. - SSE 50 closed at 3,112.1, down 20.9; IH main contract basis was 1.9, down 2.7. - CSI 500 closed at 8,227.7, up 84.4; IC main contract basis was - 29.9, down 17.8. - CSI 1000 closed at 8,257.2, up 54.0; IM main contract basis was - 101.2, down 58.4 [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, in billion yuan) was 39,868.62, up 2880.50. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, in billion yuan) was 26,829.92, up 89.30. - North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, in billion yuan) was 4209.36, up 219.55. Reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, in billion yuan) was - 286.0, up 2408.0. - Main funds (yesterday, today, in billion yuan) were - 1805.56 and - 889.40 respectively. - Proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 50.18, up 20.54. Shibor (daily, %) was 1.390, down 0.001. - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2601) was 17.60, down 19.00; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 13.78, up 0.08. - IO at - the - money put option closing price (2601) was 31.00, up 8.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 13.78, up 0.08. - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 13.26, down 0.16. Volume PCR (%) was 55.90, up 19.28. - Position PCR (%) was 75.15, down 2.53 [2] 3.4 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score was 5.70, up 2.30; technical aspect score was 5.00, up 2.10. - Capital aspect score was 6.40, up 2.50 [2] 3.5 Industry News - China's exports in December 2025 (in RMB) increased by 5.2% year - on - year (previous value: 5.7%); imports increased by 4.4% (previous value: 1.7%); trade surplus was 8087.7 billion yuan (previous value: 7925.8 billion yuan). Exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.6% year - on - year (previous value: 5.9%); imports increased by 5.7% (previous value: 1.9%); trade surplus was 1141.4 billion US dollars (previous value: 1116.8 billion US dollars) [2] - US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month; core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, with the year - on - year growth rates remaining the same as the previous values [2] - As of January 13, over 140 A - share companies had released their 2025 performance forecasts or bulletins, with 63 companies expecting performance growth and 5 companies expecting a turnaround from losses. Based on the mid - values of bulletins or forecasts, 72 companies had a net profit of over 1 billion yuan, and 22 had a net profit of over 10 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Market Performance - Most A - share major indexes closed higher. The three major indexes fluctuated upwards in the morning and dived in the afternoon. Small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap blue - chip stocks, with CSI 500 performing the strongest. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.82%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets refreshed the historical record again. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with the computer sector strengthening significantly and the banking and real estate sectors leading the decline [2]

| 环比 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 项目类别 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 13.4↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 1040.620 期货市场 | 22763 | +1759.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) -2954.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 100,679.00 | 1,438.00 | +68.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 +3666.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 201,087.00 | 1,276,402.00 | +134583.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 1869↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 100152 | 628,696 | -1370↓ | | | 上金所黄金现货价 12.98↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 1038.00 现货市场 | 22,423.00 | 1473.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -0.46↓ 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -2.62 | -340. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of Xinjiang grey dates is coming to an end, and the market focus is shifting to the consumer end. The acquisition in the production areas is basically finished, and the overall flow of market goods is stable. It is common for traders to stockpile raw materials in Xinjiang. As the twelfth lunar month approaches, the festival stocking demand is expected to drive the market into a phased peak of sales. The current spot price is generally stable, and the jujube price may fluctuate in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujubes is 9,130 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 70. The main contract's open interest is 121,118 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 734. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -18,881 lots, a week-on-week increase of 1,167. The number of warehouse receipts is 2,979, and the total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 504. [2] Spot Market - The prices of Kashgar jujube bulk goods, Hebei first-grade grey dates, Alar jujube bulk goods, Aksu jujube bulk goods, Hebei jujube premium grade, Guangdong jujube premium grade, and Guangdong jujube first-grade are 6.5 yuan/kg, 4.1 yuan/jin, 5.65 yuan/kg, 5.15 yuan/kg, 9.5 yuan/kg, 10 yuan/kg, and 8.8 yuan/kg respectively, with no significant week-on-week changes. The prices of Henan first-grade grey dates, Henan jujube premium grade are 4.15 yuan/jin and 9.5 yuan/kg respectively. [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a year-on-year decrease of 41,000 hectares. [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 15,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 349 tons. The monthly jujube export volume is 3,537,566 kg, an increase of 1,332,346 kg, and the cumulative monthly export volume is 29,291,188 kg, an increase of 3,537,566 kg. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of Hao Xiang Ni's jujubes is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The year-on-year cumulative production growth rate of Hao Xiang Ni's jujubes is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points. The average daily arrival volume of jujubes at Ruyifang Market is 6.2 vehicles, an increase of 0.8 vehicles, and the monthly average wholesale price of jujubes is 10.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.46 yuan/kg. [2] Industry News - 6 trucks of goods arrived at the parking area of Hebei Cuierzhuang Market, including substandard and finished products. Local processing plants mainly processed and shipped their own goods, and holders were actively selling. Downstream merchants made purchases as needed, and some holders reported improved sales. 5 trucks of goods arrived at the Guangdong Market, the price remained stable, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers increased, and the market transactions were acceptable. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of slight increase in supply and cautious demand. The raw material lithium ore prices are rising with the increasing price of lithium carbonate, and there may be hedging space. The smelters may maintain an active production state, while downstream battery cathode material manufacturers have low acceptance of high - priced lithium and mainly purchase based on rigid demand, resulting in strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - The put - call ratio of option positions is 172.54%, up 28.5949% month - on - month, indicating a bearish sentiment in the options market with a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis with the emergence of green bars. The report suggests light - position oscillating trading and controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 161,940 yuan/ton, down 5,040 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 125,517 lots, up 10,594 lots; the position of the main contract is 452,583 lots, down 7,698 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 4,720 yuan/ton, up 9,080 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 27,158 lots, up 260 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 163,000 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 159,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 1,060 yuan/ton, up 8,540 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 130 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume is 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 49%, up 2%. The monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 396,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 189,000 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 172,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 185,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 50%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 47,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 60%, down 3%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,880,000 units, up 108,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,823,000 units, up 108,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 47.48%, up 0.74%; the monthly export volume is 300,000 units, up 44,000 units; the cumulative sales volume is 14,780,000 units, up 3,518,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 2,315,000 units, up 1,174,000 units. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 69.82%, up 2.96%; the 40 - day average volatility is 62.58%, down 1.54% [2]. Option Situation - The total call position is 67,007 lots, up 1,587 lots; the total put position is 115,613 lots, up 21,445 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions is 172.54%, up 28.5949%; the at - the - money implied volatility (IV) is 0.72%, up 0.0619% [2]. Industry News - In early January 2026 compared with late December 2025, 27 out of 50 important production materials monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics saw price increases, 20 decreased, and 3 remained flat, with lithium iron phosphate (ordinary power type) up 11.3% [2]. - In 2025, the transaction volume of China's used - car market exceeded 20 million for the first time, reaching 20.108 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%, and the transaction volume of new - energy used cars was 1.6 million, accounting for 7.9% [2]. - Rongbai Technology signed a 120 - billion - yuan procurement cooperation agreement for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials with CATL [2]. - A US - backed company, Dobra Lithium Holdings, won the mining rights for the Dobra lithium mine in Ukraine, and Ukraine hopes to attract Western capital and strengthen relations with the US [2]. - Sichuan Province issued an action plan to build a full - cycle and full - process green manufacturing system, aiming to strengthen the comprehensive utilization of new solid waste and build a recycling system for waste power batteries [2]. - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced positive results in the Sino - EU electric vehicle anti - subsidy case, with the EU Commission taking steps towards a "soft landing" of the case [2].

苹果产业日报 2026-01-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 155 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9934 | | 144627 | 4897 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 8093 | 2689 | | | | | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 0 | 2.4 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | | | | | | | 元/斤) 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | 4.2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) -0.1 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 5128.51 9.33 | 168.34 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the accumulation rate narrowing but still at a high level. The inflow of rubber at Qingdao Port shows a seasonal decline, while the downstream rigid demand improves, increasing the overall outflow. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance plans around the New Year's Day holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,400 in the short - term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,250 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,160 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,015 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,145 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 199,737 lots, up 5,063 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 70,673 lots, up 511 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 55,451 lots, down 2,000 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 13,094 lots, up 1,997 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 105,590 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 57,758 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,910 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,905 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 310 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 925 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,320 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 246 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60 Thai baht/kg, down 0.09 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 56.35 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 16.88 million tons, up 4.27 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 30.22 million tons, up 4.58 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.21%, up 0.73 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.54%, down 0.09 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.28%, up 1.52 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.27%, up 1.53 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of the Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [2].