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基金配置策略报告(2026年2月期):股市短期震荡,从叙事走向验证
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-02-13 02:25
Market Overview - In January 2026, the equity market showed a good profit effect, with major indices rising, while the bond market stabilized after fluctuations[3] - The performance of cyclical and growth sectors remained strong, with non-ferrous metals, media, and oil and petrochemicals leading gains at 23.02%, 18.85%, and 14.95% respectively[3] - Conversely, the banking, comprehensive finance, and transportation sectors experienced declines of -6.18%, -4.46%, and -0.89% respectively[3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market showed resilience after a period of decline, with major bond fund indices recording gains of 0.24%, 0.20%, and 0.16% for long-term, bond index, and short-term pure bond indices respectively[12] - The performance of first-level, second-level, and convertible bond fund indices increased by 0.85%, 1.65%, and 6.90% respectively, following the strength of the equity market[12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy in February, focusing on sectors with strong profit elasticity and clear benefits from technological advancements, particularly in "light, electricity, and storage" segments[4] - Traditional dividend stocks are recommended as stabilizing components in investment portfolios, enhancing risk management[4] Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes the need for caution in the bond market, advising against extending duration too much due to the current narrow credit spreads and potential challenges in capital gains[6] - It highlights the importance of monitoring policy signals and maintaining a diversified allocation to mitigate risks in a complex market environment[6] Performance Metrics - The active equity fund selection index has achieved a cumulative net value of 1.5819 since its inception on May 11, 2023, outperforming the CSI 930950 index by 25.37%[23] - The short-term bond fund selection index has a cumulative net value of 1.0481, with an excess return of 0.5456% relative to its benchmark since December 12, 2023[31]
资金结构观察系列之一:“存款到期”一定会带来“存款搬家”吗?
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 08:19
Investment Insights - The report discusses the significant upcoming maturity of approximately 67 trillion yuan in household time deposits in 2026, primarily formed after 2020 due to residents' precautionary savings amid uncertainties, with a notable shift from high interest rates above 3% to a low-rate environment where mainstream renewal rates are below 2% [9][15][27] - The potential reallocation of these funds is a focal point of market discussions, as it could impact the preservation and appreciation of household wealth and influence various financial asset prices [9][27] Fund Flow Directions - The report identifies three main directions for the funds from maturing deposits: 1. Renewal of deposits, which remains a default choice for most savers despite low interest rates, as consumption and housing purchases are not expected to dominate in the short term [2][15] 2. Early mortgage repayment, as the current mortgage rates exceed deposit and low-risk investment returns, leading to a high early repayment rate in RMBS, although this is not the primary direction for the funds [17] 3. Investment in both low-risk assets (such as bank wealth management products, bond funds, and insurance) and risk assets (like equity funds and the stock market), with the latter being the most debated potential direction for "deposit migration" [2][15][17] Asset Performance Influence - The ultimate direction of the maturing deposit funds towards low-risk or risk assets will depend on the actual performance of various asset classes, as funds inherently seek to chase better-performing assets and withdraw from underperforming ones [19][27] - Historical market trends indicate that funds tend to rotate based on asset performance, with recent trends showing simultaneous movements in both bond and stock markets due to significant allocations through "fixed income plus" strategies [19][27] Central Bank Perspective - The report highlights that funds from maturing deposits are likely to flow back into the banking system, albeit in a different form, as they transition from household deposits to non-bank institutional deposits [3][20][26] - By the end of 2025, over 80% of asset management products are expected to be directed towards fixed-income assets, with a significant portion returning to bank deposits, indicating a structural change rather than a mass exodus from the banking system [3][20][26]
2026年1月银行理财市场月报:银行理财大事记:理财市场降费潮又起,中小银行代销路谋新
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-02-11 12:24
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking wealth management industry, highlighting a new wave of fee reductions and innovative strategies among institutions [4]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management market has seen a significant increase in scale, reaching 33.29 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a structural shift towards fixed-income products and an expansion of mixed-asset offerings [4][12]. - The average yield of wealth management products has dropped below 2% for the first time, reflecting a challenging market environment influenced by declining interest rates and increased competition [12][18]. - Regulatory changes, including the implementation of new public fund sales regulations, aim to lower investor costs and promote long-term investment strategies [4][12]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - As of January, the total market size of wealth management products was 31.57 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.10% month-on-month but an increase of 5.75% year-on-year [5][10]. - The average annualized yield for wealth management products was reported at 1.98%, marking a significant decline from previous years [12][18]. Product Dynamics - The new issuance of wealth management products in January saw an increase, maintaining a focus on three main characteristics: fixed-income plus products, closed-end products, and 1-3 year term products [6][12]. - The closed-end product compliance rate reached 86.66%, while the open-end product compliance rate was 66.53%, both showing improvements from the previous month [6][12]. Regulatory and Industry Developments - The report highlights a new wave of fee reductions across the industry, with many institutions lowering management and service fees to enhance product attractiveness [4][12]. - The introduction of the new public fund sales regulations is expected to provide greater flexibility in fee structures, benefiting the bond market and indirectly supporting the wealth management sector [12][18]. Innovation and Strategic Shifts - Institutions are increasingly focusing on innovative strategies, such as the introduction of new product types and enhanced investor engagement through technology [4][12]. - The report notes that smaller banks are shifting towards a distribution model to adapt to regulatory pressures and market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of channel partnerships [12][18].
银行理财周度跟踪:理财掘金商业航天打新,“套利+”捕捉高确定性收益
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-02-11 12:24
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing focus on bank wealth management products, particularly in the context of commercial aerospace investments and the introduction of new "arbitrage+" strategies aimed at capturing high certainty returns [4][10]. - The performance of cash management products remains stable, with a near 7-day annualized yield of 1.28%, while money market funds saw a slight increase to 1.17% [13][15]. - The report notes a rise in the net loss ratio of bank wealth management products to 0.96%, indicating a potential increase in redemption pressure if the credit spread continues to widen [21][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Innovation Dynamics - Ningyin Wealth Management successfully participated in the IPO of "Electric Science Blue Sky," which saw a first-day closing increase of 596%, with six of its products included in the allocation [10]. - Su Yin Wealth Management launched the "arbitrage+" series of wealth management products, focusing on short holding periods of 45 and 100 days, utilizing pricing discrepancies across various markets to generate returns [12]. 2. Yield Performance - Cash management products recorded a near 7-day annualized yield of 1.28%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while money market funds increased to 1.17% [13][15]. - The yields of pure fixed income and fixed income+ products generally declined, influenced by various market factors including weaker PMI data and increased risk aversion [16][18]. 3. Net Loss Ratio Tracking - The net loss ratio for bank wealth management products increased to 0.96%, up by 0.38 percentage points, with a widening credit spread of 0.06 basis points [21][24].
2026年1月银行理财市场月报:银行理财大事记:理财市场降费潮又起,中小银行代销路谋新-20260211
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-02-11 11:34
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management market is experiencing a new wave of fee reductions, with many institutions lowering management and sales service fees to enhance product attractiveness [4][12] - As of January 2026, the total scale of the banking wealth management market reached 33.29 trillion yuan, with a structural dominance of fixed-income products and an expansion of mixed products [4][12] - The average yield of wealth management products has fallen below 2% for the first time, indicating significant pressure on returns [12][18] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In January 2026, the total scale of wealth management products was 31.57 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.10% month-on-month but an increase of 5.75% year-on-year [5][10] - The average annualized yield for cash management products was recorded at 1.28%, down 7.45 basis points month-on-month, while pure fixed-income products saw an annualized yield of 2.67%, up 0.55 percentage points [5][10] New Product Issuance - The issuance of new wealth management products in January increased, maintaining three main characteristics: dominance of fixed-income plus products, closed-end products, and 1-3 year term products [6][8] - The performance benchmark for newly issued wealth management products showed a trend of divergence in adjustments [6][8] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The implementation of new public fund sales regulations aims to lower investor costs and promote long-term investment, with a focus on reducing redemption fees and extending transition periods [4][12] - The report highlights a trend of "fee reduction" among wealth management companies, driven by competitive pressures and the need to attract funds amid declining deposit rates [12][18] Asset Allocation Trends - The report indicates a shift in asset allocation towards increased investments in public funds and bank deposits, with public fund investments reaching 1.82 trillion yuan, accounting for 5.10% of the total [12][18] - The proportion of bond assets in wealth management allocations has decreased, with credit bonds and interbank certificates of deposit seeing significant declines [12][18] Innovation and Market Adaptation - Wealth management companies are actively exploring new strategies, such as the introduction of innovative products like "micro-wave fixed income" strategies and participation in IPOs to capture opportunities in the technology sector [4][12][18] - The report notes that some wealth management products are using short-term high yields as a strategy to attract investments, which may raise regulatory concerns [12][18]
银行理财周度跟踪(2026.2.2-2026.2.8):理财掘金商业航天打新,“套利+”捕捉高确定性收益-20260211
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-02-11 10:35
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing focus on bank wealth management products, particularly in the context of commercial aerospace investments and the introduction of new "arbitrage+" strategies aimed at capturing high certainty returns [4][10]. - The performance of cash management products remains stable, with a near 7-day annualized yield of 1.28%, while money market funds saw a slight increase to 1.17% [13][15]. - The report notes a rise in the net loss ratio of bank wealth management products to 0.96%, indicating a potential increase in redemption pressure if the credit spread continues to widen [21][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Innovation Dynamics - Ningyin Wealth Management successfully participated in the IPO of "Electric Science Blue Sky," which saw a first-day closing increase of 596%, with six of its products included in the allocation [10]. - Su Yin Wealth Management launched the "arbitrage+" series of wealth management products, focusing on short holding periods of 45 and 100 days, utilizing pricing discrepancies across various markets to generate returns [12]. 2. Yield Performance - Cash management products recorded a near 7-day annualized yield of 1.28%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while money market funds increased to 1.17% [13][15]. - The yields of pure fixed income and fixed income+ products generally declined, influenced by various market factors including weaker PMI data and increased risk aversion [16][18]. 3. Net Loss Ratio Tracking - The net loss ratio for bank wealth management products increased to 0.96%, up by 0.38 percentage points, with a widening credit spread observed [21][24].
ETF及指数产品网格策略周报-20260210
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-02-10 10:19
Group 1 - The report outlines a grid trading strategy that capitalizes on price fluctuations rather than predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [4][14] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include being exchange-traded, having stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [4][14] - The report highlights specific ETFs for grid trading, including the Huashan Software ETF, which focuses on domestic software development and AI commercialization opportunities [5][15] Group 2 - The report discusses the E Fund Robotics ETF, which benefits from the dual drivers of smart manufacturing upgrades and accelerated penetration of the robotics industry, with significant growth in industrial and service robot production expected [5][18] - The E Fund Securities and Insurance ETF is noted for its short-term catalysts from January's strong market performance and long-term policy benefits from the "Financial Power" strategy and ongoing capital market reforms [6][20] - The report emphasizes the gaming ETF, which is supported by the normalization of game license approvals and the transformative impact of AI technology on the gaming industry, leading to significant revenue growth in both domestic and international markets [8][23]
公募基金指数跟踪周报(2026.02.02-2026.02.06):节前震荡下行,风格短期切换-20260209
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 12:57
Report Overview - The report is a weekly update on public - offering funds from February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026, analyzing the performance of the equity and fixed - income markets and various fund indices [1][3]. 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - In the equity market, last week (2026.02.02 - 2026.02.06), major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index declined. The A - share market's downward volatility increased due to global resource futures fluctuations and US tech giants' earnings announcements. The tech sector may face more pressure after the Two Sessions, while mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement are worth attention [3][12]. - In the fixed - income market, the bond yield curve flattened last week. Short - term negative factors have been eliminated, so the bond market may not experience significant fluctuations. However, after the Spring Festival, the bond market's volatility may increase due to the active stock market and policy expectations [4][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.27%, the CSI 300 dropped 1.33%, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.28%. The A - share market's volatility increased, and the overall market sentiment cooled. The daily average trading volume of the whole A - shares was 24032 billion, a decrease from the previous week. Industry rotation was rapid, with resource - cycle sectors and power equipment being active. The tech - growth sector faced adjustment pressure [12]. - The value style strengthened due to low - level price rebounds and high - dividend defensive needs. The market is trading "event - driven prosperity improvement" and "assets with clear price signals." The tech sector may face more pressure after the Two Sessions, and mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement should be focused on [13]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market - Last week, the bond yield curve flattened. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 1.80BP to 1.32%, the 10 - year yield fell 0.1BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield dropped 3.8BP to 2.25%. The long - end yield continued to decline, and the term spread narrowed. The bond market was oscillating strongly. Some risk - averse funds may have flowed into the bond market due to stock market fluctuations, and the central bank actively provided liquidity. The local bond issuance was well - received, eliminating previous market concerns. However, after the Spring Festival, the bond market's volatility may increase [4][14]. - US Treasury yields declined last week. The 1 - year yield dropped 3BP to 3.45%, the 2 - year yield fell 2BP to 3.50%, and the 10 - year yield decreased 4BP to 4.22%. The employment market data showed a cooling trend, which led to the decline of the US Treasury yield curve. The CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 0.91% last week, and most sectors declined. Four new public - offering REITs made progress in the primary market [15]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Fund Index Performance | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Since the Beginning of this Year | Since Strategy Implementation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Active Stock Fund Selection | - 2.20% | 3.82% | 7.86% | 55.05% | | Value Stock Fund Selection | - 0.24% | 3.64% | 6.91% | 29.34% | | Balanced Stock Fund Selection | - 1.81% | 2.25% | 6.04% | 37.83% | | Growth Stock Fund Selection | - 2.65% | 3.40% | 8.12% | 56.09% | | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection | - 0.85% | - 5.45% | 3.27% | 15.22% | | Consumption Stock Fund Selection | - 0.57% | 1.17% | 4.13% | 9.11% | | Technology Stock Fund Selection | - 1.98% | 1.83% | 6.27% | 62.66% | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection | - 3.30% | 1.58% | 7.39% | 42.12% | | Cyclical Stock Fund Selection | - 3.76% | 4.70% | 9.95% | 43.97% | [17] 3.2.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Fund Index Performance | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Since the Beginning of this Year | Since Strategy Implementation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Money - enhancing Index | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.14% | 4.63% | | Short - term Bond Fund Selection | 0.04% | 0.15% | 0.17% | 4.79% | | Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Selection | 0.09% | 0.45% | 0.42% | 7.25% | | Low - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection | - 0.04% | 0.51% | 0.95% | 5.56% | | Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection | - 0.63% | 0.42% | 1.15% | 7.54% | | High - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection | - 0.23% | 0.69% | 1.65% | 9.98% | | Convertible Bond Fund Selection | - 0.20% | 3.63% | 6.68% | 32.56% | | QDII Bond Fund Selection | - 0.26% | - 0.13% | - 0.18% | 9.82% | | REITs Fund Selection | - 1.86% | 2.19% | 3.77% | 35.61% | [18] 3.3 Index Positioning and Benchmarks 3.3.1 Equity Strategy Theme Index - Active Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. The core position selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Equity - oriented Fund Index. The benchmark is the CSI Equity - oriented Fund Index [19]. 3.3.2 Investment Style Index - Value Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles. The benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index [19]. - Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with relatively balanced and value - growth styles. The benchmark is the CSI 800 [21]. - Growth Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles. The benchmark is the 800 Growth Index [25]. 3.3.3 Industry Theme Index - Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 15 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). The benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index [27]. - Consumption Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). The benchmark is the consumption theme fund index [31]. - Technology Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Electronics, etc.). The benchmark is the technology theme fund index [34]. - High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Construction, etc.). The benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index [35]. - Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 5 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Petrochemical, etc.). The benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index [39]. 3.3.4 Money - enhancing Index - Money - enhancing Strategy Index: Aims for liquidity management, pursues a curve that exceeds money - market funds. It mainly allocates money - market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The benchmark is the CSI Money - market Fund Index [42]. 3.3.5 Pure - Bond Index - Short - term Bond Fund Selection Index: Aims for liquidity management, ensures drawdown control, and pursues a smooth - upward curve. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The benchmark is 50% * Short - term Pure - Bond Fund Index+50% * Ordinary Money - market Fund Index [44]. - Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Selection Index: Invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, pursues stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds each period, balancing coupon strategies and band - trading operations, and adjusts the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate - bond funds according to market conditions [47]. 3.3.6 Fixed - income + Index - Low - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection Index: The equity central position is 10%, selects 10 funds with an equity central position within 15% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [51]. - Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection Index: The equity central position is 20%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [51]. - High - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection Index: The equity central position is 30%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [55]. 3.3.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index: Selects 5 funds from a sample space of bond - type funds with a convertible - bond investment ratio of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% in the past four quarters, based on an evaluation system [58]. - QDII Bond Fund Selection Index: Selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions [60]. - REITs Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type [61].
ETF策略指数跟踪周报-20260209
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 10:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - By leveraging ETFs, it is convenient to transform quantitative models or subjective viewpoints into practical investment strategies. The report presents several ETF - based strategy indices and tracks their performance and holdings on a weekly basis [12] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. ETF Strategy Index Tracking - **Overall Performance**: The table shows the performance of various ETF strategy indices last week. The "Huabao Research Small and Large - Cap Rotation ETF Strategy Index" had a weekly return of - 2.57%, a benchmark return of - 1.72%, and an excess return of - 0.85%. The "Huabao Research Quantitative Fire - Wheel ETF Strategy Index" had a weekly return of - 2.71%, a benchmark return of - 1.72%, and an excess return of - 0.99%. The "Huabao Research Quantitative Balance Art ETF Strategy Index" had a weekly return of - 0.44%, a benchmark return of - 1.33%, and an excess return of 0.90%. The "Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index" had a weekly return of - 5.17%, a benchmark return of - 1.72%, and an excess return of - 3.45%. The "Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index" had a weekly return of - 4.02%, a benchmark return of - 1.56%, and an excess return of - 2.46%. The "Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index" had a weekly return of 0.14%, a benchmark return of 0.14%, and an excess return of 0.00% [13] 1.1 Huabao Research Small and Large - Cap Rotation ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses multi - dimensional technical indicator factors and a machine - learning model to predict the return difference between the Shenwan Large - Cap Index and the Shenwan Small - Cap Index. The model outputs signals weekly to predict the strength of the indices in the next week and determines holdings accordingly to obtain excess returns relative to the market [14][3] - **Performance**: As of February 6, 2026, the excess return since 2024 was 27.39%, the excess return in the past month was 1.49%, and the excess return in the past week was - 0.85%. The recent week's return was - 2.57%, the recent month's return was 0.06%, and the return since 2024 was 66.67%. The benchmark (CSI 800) had a recent - week return of - 1.72%, a recent - month return of - 1.43%, and a return since 2024 of 39.28% [14][18] - **Holdings**: As of February 6, 2026, it held 50% of the "CSI 500ETF" (fund code 159922.SZ) and 50% of the "CSI 1000ETF" (fund code 512100.SH) [18] 1.2 Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses price - volume indicators to time self - built Barra factors and maps timing signals to ETFs based on their exposures to 9 major Barra factors to achieve returns exceeding the market. The selected ETFs cover mainstream broad - based index ETFs and some style and strategy ETFs [17][18] - **Performance**: As of February 6, 2026, the excess return since 2024 was 14.21%, the excess return in the past month was - 3.36%, and the excess return in the past week was - 3.45%. The recent week's return was - 5.17%, the recent month's return was - 4.79%, and the return since 2024 was 53.50%. The benchmark (CSI 800) had a recent - week return of - 1.72%, a recent - month return of - 1.43%, and a return since 2024 of 39.28% [18][19] - **Holdings**: As of February 6, 2026, it held 25.28% of the "Western Capital Growth Enterprise Market Large - Cap ETF" (fund code 159814.SZ), 25.10% of the "Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation Comprehensive Index ETF" (fund code 589000.SH), 24.82% of the "Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF" (fund code 588000.SH), and 24.80% of the "E Fund Science and Technology Innovation and Growth Enterprise Market ETF" (fund code 159781.SZ) [18][21] 1.3 Huabao Research Quantitative Fire - Wheel ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It starts from a multi - factor perspective, including the grasp of medium - and long - term fundamental dimensions, the tracking of short - term market trends, and the analysis of the behaviors of various market participants. It uses valuation and crowding signals to indicate industry risks and multi - dimensionally digs potential sectors to obtain excess returns relative to the market [21][4] - **Performance**: As of February 6, 2026, the excess return since 2024 was 48.59%, the excess return in the past month was 5.45%, and the excess return in the past week was - 0.99%. The recent week's return was - 2.71%, the recent month's return was 4.02%, and the return since 2024 was 87.87%. The benchmark (CSI 800) had a recent - week return of - 1.72%, a recent - month return of - 1.43%, and a return since 2024 of 39.28% [21][23] - **Holdings**: As of February 6, 2026, it held 20.66% of the "E Fund Securities and Insurance ETF" (fund code 512070.SH), 20.05% of the "Steel ETF" (fund code 515210.SH), 19.97% of the "Penghua Petroleum ETF" (fund code 159697.SZ), 19.66% of the "Electronic ETF" (fund code 159997.SZ), and 19.65% of the "Chemical Industry ETF" (fund code 159870.SZ) [26] 1.4 Huabao Research Quantitative Balance Art ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses a multi - factor system including economic fundamentals, liquidity, technical aspects, and investor behavior factors to build a quantitative timing system for trend analysis of the equity market. It also establishes a prediction model for the market's small - and large - cap styles to adjust the equity market position distribution and comprehensively obtains excess returns relative to the market through timing and rotation [25] - **Performance**: As of February 6, 2026, the excess return since 2024 was - 8.96%, the excess return in the past month was 2.38%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.90%. The recent week's return was - 0.44%, the recent month's return was - 0.04%, and the return since 2024 was 26.37%. The benchmark (CSI 300) had a recent - week return of - 1.33%, a recent - month return of - 2.42%, and a return since 2024 was 35.34% [25][26] - **Holdings**: As of February 6, 2026, it held 9.11% of the "10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF" (fund code 511260.SH), 6.50% of the "500ETF Enhanced" (fund code 159610.SZ), 6.26% of the "CSI 1000ETF" (fund code 512100.SH), 32.94% of the "Guotai CSI 300 Enhanced ETF" (fund code 561300.SH), 22.64% of the "Policy - Financial Bond ETF" (fund code 511520.SH), and 22.55% of the "Haifutong Short - Term Financing ETF" (fund code 511360.SH) [28] 1.5 Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses strategies such as market sentiment analysis, industry major event tracking, investor sentiment and professional opinions, policy and regulatory changes, and historical deduction to track and dig hot - spot index target products in a timely manner, constructing an ETF portfolio that can capture market hotspots in time to provide investors with references for short - term market trends and help them make more informed investment decisions [28][5] - **Performance**: As of February 6, 2026, the excess return in the past month was 2.05%, and the excess return in the past week was - 2.46%. The recent week's return was - 4.02%, the recent month's return was 1.15%. The benchmark (CSI All - Share Index) had a recent - week return of - 1.56% and a recent - month return of - 0.90% [28][31] - **Holdings**: As of February 6, 2026, it held 41.13% of the "Huitianfu Non - Ferrous Metals ETF" (fund code 159652.SZ), 23.13% of the "Bosera Hong Kong Stock Dividend ETF" (fund code 513690.SH), 18.44% of the "E Fund Hong Kong - Stock Connect Pharmaceutical ETF" (fund code 513200.SH), and 17.30% of the "Haifutong Short - Term Financing ETF" (fund code 511360.SH) [31][32] 1.6 Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses bond market liquidity indicators and price - volume indicators to screen effective timing factors and predicts bond yields through machine learning. When the expected yield is below a certain threshold, it reduces the long - duration positions in the bond investment portfolio to improve the portfolio's long - term returns and drawdown control ability [32] - **Performance**: As of February 6, 2026, the excess return in the past month was 0.29%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.00%. The recent week's return was 0.14%, the recent month's return was 0.76%, the return since 2024 was 9.76%, and the return since its establishment was 23.95%. The benchmark (ChinaBond Aggregate Index) had a recent - week return of 0.14%, a recent - month return of 0.47%, a return since 2024 of 3.26%, and a return since its establishment of 7.55% [32][33] - **Holdings**: As of February 6, 2026, it held 50.03% of the "10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF" (fund code 511260.SH), 24.99% of the "Policy - Financial Bond ETF" (fund code 511520.SH), and 24.98% of the "5 - to 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF" (fund code 511020.SH) [32][35]
策略周报:节前求稳,节后谋进-20260208
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-02-08 14:17
Group 1 - The bond market is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival, with a potential shift in market logic after the holiday, as economic recovery and policy expectations may influence bond market sentiment [1][12] - The 10-year government bond yield may drop below 1.80%, with a possible gradual decline in the volatility center from around 1.85% to approximately 1.80% in February [1][12] - If the 10-year government bond yield breaks below 1.80%, it is advisable to consider taking profits near 1.77%, while a rebound to 1.84%-1.85% could present a small-scale buying opportunity [1][12] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing early and rapid spring momentum, but regulatory guidance is leading to a more rational market [2][15] - Due to increased volatility in asset prices, some funds are adopting a more cautious trading approach, and profit-taking intentions are rising [2][15] - It is recommended to consider taking profits or shifting to a more conservative style before the Spring Festival, with potential opportunities in low-valuation sectors like consumption and real estate after the holiday [2][15] Group 3 - The overseas market shows earnings support, but stock volatility risks remain, with approximately 78% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations [15][26] - Concerns over the "AI" bubble may lead to volatility in the U.S. stock market, especially if labor market data continues to show weakness [15][26] - The upcoming release of key economic data, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and inflation figures, will be crucial for market direction [30]