2025 年 11 月 17 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 美联储降息预期降温，国内债市延续震荡 公募基金泛固收指数跟踪周报（2025.11.10-2025.11.14） 分析师：孙书娜 投资要点 市场回顾：上周（2025.11.10-2025.11.14）债市整体维持震荡，1 年期国债 收益率上行 0.59BP 至 1.41%，10 年期国债收益率持平 1.81%，30 年期国债 收益率下行 1.00BP 至 2.15%。具体来看，三季度货币政策执行报告中向进一 步宽松方向改变措辞，但同时经济数据方面，通胀数据的回暖使未来货币政策 进一步宽松的预期有所降温，因此债市短期延续震荡格局。 公募基金市场动态：华夏安博仓储 REIT 发行火爆，实现"一日售罄"。 泛固收基金指数表现跟踪 分析师登记编码：S0890523070001 电话：021-20321306 邮箱：sunshuna@cnhbstock.com 分析师：宋逸菲 分析师登记编码：S0890524080003 电话：021-20321087 邮箱：songyifei@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 1 、 ...

2025 年 11 月 17 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 ETF 策略指数跟踪周报 2025/11/17 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 邮箱：zhangjunrui@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《央行购债落地，债市震荡调整—公募 基 金 泛 固 收 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.11.03-2025.11.07）》2025-11-10 2、《板块高低切换，从算力到电力—公募 基 金 权 益 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.11.03-2025.11.07）》2025-11-10 3 、《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 — 2025/11/10》2025-11-10 4、《诸多事件落地，风格或再平衡—公募 基 金 权 益 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.10.27-2025.10.31）》2025-1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 10 - 14, 2025, the market adjusted overall, with small - cap stocks leading in gains and the value style outperforming the growth style. The consumer services, textile and apparel, and basic chemicals sectors led the rise. The daily average trading volume of the entire A - shares increased compared to the previous week. A - shares still showed characteristics of a stock game, and the market focused on the game between next - year's policies and prosperity expectations, which was favorable for the small - and medium - cap theme investment style [4][12]. - The weakening of A - share technology was mainly due to the market's divergence on the US AI narrative. The A - share technology direction has spread from hardware to power shortages and power equipment construction, with storage chips replacing optical modules as the new theme, but there is no clear sign of a switch from AI hardware to software applications [13]. - The release of the third - quarter financial reports of technology giants such as NVIDIA, Alibaba, and Baidu will have an important impact on the "US stock AI bubble theory" and the rebound of A - share technology stocks and global risk assets at the end of the year [14]. - Last week, the gold price fluctuated upwards. The future trend of the gold price will closely revolve around the disclosure of US economic data and new signals from Fed officials regarding the interest - rate path [14]. - On November 12, 2025, the Asset Management Association of China drafted the "Regulations on the Suitability Management of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Fund Investors (Exposure Draft)" to further standardize the sales behavior of public funds and strengthen the obligation of suitability management for investors [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - Market performance: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.18%, the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.08%, the CSI 500 Index fell by 1.26%, and the Guozheng 2000 Index fell slightly by 0.13%. The daily average trading volume of the entire A - shares was 2.041 trillion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week [4][12]. - Capital layout: A - shares still showed characteristics of a stock game. Funds were deployed around two types of opportunities: logic - driven opportunities such as the new energy vehicle industry chain and petrochemical resource - related sectors, and event - gaming opportunities represented by regional concepts, restructuring themes, and low - priced stocks [12]. - Macro changes: In October, domestic economic data showed a "high - then - low" trend. Policy may be "supportive but not overly aggressive". The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report indicated that supportive monetary policies would balance long - term goals [13]. - Technology direction: The weakening of A - share technology was affected by the US AI narrative. The technology direction has spread from hardware to power shortages and power equipment construction, with storage chips replacing optical modules as the new theme, but there is no clear sign of a switch from AI hardware to software applications [13]. - Gold: Last week, the gold price fluctuated upwards. The future trend of the gold price will depend on US economic data and Fed officials' signals regarding interest - rate paths [14]. 1.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - On November 12, 2025, the Asset Management Association of China drafted the "Regulations on the Suitability Management of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Fund Investors (Exposure Draft)", which requires fund managers and sales institutions to strictly fulfill suitability obligations and adds three principles for public fund risk assessment [16][17]. 2. Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Year - to - Date | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Strategy and Theme | Active Stock Fund Preferred Index | - 0.15% | 1.49% | 38.93% | 40.06% | | Investment Style | Value Stock Fund Preferred Index | 1.37% | 2.54% | 21.08% | 21.17% | | | Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index | - 0.24% | 1.00% | 32.08% | 29.19% | | | Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index | 0.20% | 2.24% | 54.17% | 40.32% | | Industry Theme | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index | 4.97% | 1.28% | 42.97% | 23.85% | | | Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index | 0.32% | - 4.11% | 12.91% | 5.64% | | | Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index | - 1.85% | - 0.95% | 46.52% | 48.82% | | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index | - 1.49% | 4.95% | 36.30% | 29.73% | | | Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index | 1.10% | - 3.40% | 27.16% | 18.19% | - Each index has its own positioning and performance comparison benchmarks. For example, the Active Stock Fund Preferred Index selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation, and its performance comparison benchmark is the CSI Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [19][20].

New Stock Issuance - Hai'an Group (Stock Code: 001233) issued at a price of 48.00 on November 14, 2025[1] - Hangzhou Qilun B (Stock Code: 200771) has a cash option declaration period from November 19 to November 25, 2025[1] - Hailianxun (Stock Code: 300277) has a buyback request declaration period from November 12 to November 18, 2025[1] Market Alerts - Pingming Technology (Stock Code: 688109) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on November 13, 2025[1] - ST Yuancheng (Stock Code: 603388) and ST Zhongzhu (Stock Code: 600568) also reported abnormal fluctuations on November 11, 2025[1] - ST Green Kang (Stock Code: 002868) and Dongbai Group (Stock Code: 600693) reported abnormal fluctuations on November 14, 2025[1] Additional Information - Multiple companies including ST Meigu (Stock Code: 000615) and ST Xiangyu (Stock Code: 600107) have ongoing announcements related to stock performance and market conditions[1][2] - The report includes links to detailed announcements for each stock, providing transparency and access to further information for investors[1]

New Stock Issuance - Cash option declaration period for Hangzhou Steam Turbine (200771) is from November 19 to November 25, 2025[1] - Acquisition request period for Hailianxun (300277) is from November 12 to November 18, 2025[1] Trading Alerts - Severe abnormal fluctuation reported for Haike Xinyuan (301292) on November 11, 2025[1] - Abnormal fluctuation noted for ST Yuancheng (603388) on November 11, 2025[1] Company Announcements - Announcement for Tianji Co., Ltd. (002759) on November 13, 2025[1] - Announcement for Huatong Technology (688109) on November 13, 2025[1] Other Notable Events - ST Meigu (000615) reported on November 13, 2025[1] - ST Zhongdi (000609) reported on November 13, 2025[1]

- The report tracks various market factors, including stock market, commodity market, options market, and convertible bond market, focusing on their weekly performance and trends[1][3][12] - **Stock Market Factors**: The report highlights the following: - **Market Style**: Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, and value stocks outperformed growth stocks. Both small-cap and value-growth style volatilities decreased[12][14] - **Market Structure**: Industry excess return dispersion and industry rotation speed increased. The proportion of rising constituent stocks also increased, while the concentration of trading in the top 100 stocks and top 5 industries decreased[12][14] - **Market Activity**: Both market volatility and turnover rate declined[13][14] - **Commodity Market Factors**: Key observations include: - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of agricultural products decreased, while other sectors showed minimal changes[24][31] - **Basis Momentum**: Basis momentum increased across all sectors[24][31] - **Volatility**: Volatility decreased across all sectors except agricultural products[24][31] - **Liquidity**: Liquidity declined across all sectors[24][31] - **Options Market Factors**: The implied volatility levels of SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options decreased. However, the put-call open interest ratio increased. Additionally, the skewness of both put and call options for SSE 50 rose significantly[35] - **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: The convertible bond market performed well, with the following trends: - The premium rate of bonds priced around 100 yuan increased significantly, nearing the 90th percentile of the past year[37] - The premium rate of pure debt bonds also slightly increased, while the proportion of low premium rate bonds remained stable[37] - Weekly trading volume continued to recover[37]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The new generation of wealth management systems has been fully launched, significantly optimizing data quality and reporting efficiency, laying a foundation for transparency in information disclosure [3][10][11] - Some wealth management companies are attempting to utilize T-1 valuation rules to create "explosive" products, enabling value transfer between new and old products [3][12][13] - The report highlights the potential risks of T-1 valuation arbitrage, including investor dissatisfaction and hindrance to research and development capabilities within the industry [17][18] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The new generation wealth management system was launched on October 3, 2025, enhancing data processing capabilities and system stability [10][11] - The T-1 valuation arbitrage method is being explored by some companies to quickly generate popular products, which may lead to unfair advantages for new product investors [12][14][17] Peer Innovation Dynamics - China Post Wealth Management has launched two indices focused on high-grade technology innovation and green bonds, supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy [18] Yield Performance - Cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.28%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the previous week, while money market funds remained stable at 1.16% [19][21] - The report indicates a general decline in yields across various fixed-income products due to tighter monetary policy and market conditions [21][22] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 0.53%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points, with credit spreads also narrowing [28][29]

New Stock Issuance - The stock code 300277 (Hai Lian Xun) has a subscription period for acquisition rights from November 12 to November 18, 2025[1] - Stock code 688353 (Hua Sheng Lithium) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on November 11, 2025[1] - Stock code 603122 (He Fu China) has an announcement dated November 8, 2025[1] Trading Alerts - Stock code 601888 (China Zhong Mian) has an announcement dated November 12, 2025[1] - Stock code 600537 (Yi Jing Guang Dian) has an announcement dated November 12, 2025[1] - Stock code 688028 (Wo Er De) has an announcement dated November 12, 2025[1] Abnormal Fluctuations - Stock code 600815 (Xia Gong Co.) reported abnormal fluctuations on November 6, 2025[2] - Stock code 603557 (ST Qi Bu) reported abnormal fluctuations on November 7, 2025[3] - Stock code 002478 (Chang Bao Co.) reported abnormal fluctuations on November 7, 2025[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the effectiveness of grid trading strategies in volatile markets, allowing investors to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends [4][12]. - The report identifies suitable characteristics for grid trading targets, including low trading costs, good liquidity, and significant volatility, suggesting that equity ETFs are appropriate for this strategy [4][12]. Group 2 - The report highlights the focus on specific ETFs for grid trading strategies, including the Military Industry ETF (512710.SH), which is expected to benefit from a new procurement cycle driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and increased defense budget [4][13]. - The Pharmaceutical ETF (512010.SH) is noted for its strong pipeline of innovative drugs, with China holding the second-largest number of drug development projects globally, and the potential for accelerated commercialization as domestic policies support innovation [5][16]. - The Hang Seng New Economy ETF (513320.SH) is positioned to capture the benefits of China's industrial upgrade and technological development, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [6][18].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the equity market experienced high-level fluctuations in October 2025, with a notable retreat in the previously dominant technology growth sector, while dividend and value sectors outperformed [11][12] - The report highlights that the coal, oil and petrochemical, and non-ferrous metals sectors saw significant gains of 9.87%, 5.03%, and 5.00% respectively, while sectors like media, automotive, and electronics faced declines of -5.71%, -4.24%, and -4.00% [11][12] - The report suggests that the market is likely to focus on industries with high performance growth in Q3, but the public funds' holdings in these core targets are already high, limiting further accumulation [18][19] Group 2 - The report outlines that the bond market showed signs of recovery in October, with major bond indices such as the Wind Long-term Pure Bond Index and Wind Bond Index Fund Index rising by 0.51% and 0.44% respectively [12][13] - It is noted that the bond market is expected to continue its oscillation in November, with risks significantly easing, but bullish sentiment remains insufficient [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting high-quality bond funds that can provide stable returns without credit downgrades, while also adjusting duration strategies flexibly [25][30] Group 3 - The report discusses the active equity fund selection index, which focuses on sectors that are less affected by foreign capital fluctuations and have stable profit expectations [20][21] - It mentions that the index has achieved a cumulative net value of 1.4027 since its establishment, outperforming the active equity fund index by 16.64% [20][21] - The report highlights the importance of technology themes, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing, new energy systems, and quantum technology, as key areas for investment [19][20]