房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 1-2 月销售较去年全年降幅收窄，但较去年 年末降幅扩大 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国家/地区 中国 行业 房地产行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 26 日 看好（维持） | 赵旭翔 | zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 | | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*6069 | | | lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW124 | | sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | | 孙怡萱 | | 两会再提止跌回稳目标 | 2025-03-12 | | --- | --- | | 1-2 月百强房企拿地总额实现两位数增长 | 2025-03-04 | | 1 月一线城市房价环比继续上行 | 2025-02-24 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 一个舒缓式反弹 ——3 月 FOMC 会议点评 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 25 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 再通胀和财政平衡：聊聊近期海外市场行 | 2025-02-18 | | --- | --- | | 情背后的两个宏观叙事：——海外札记 | | | 20250216 | ...

| | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年03月24日） | 17.04 元 | | 目标价格 | 24.03 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 19.8/7.47 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 68,543/58,335 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 11,680 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 新能源汽车产业链 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 03 月 25 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -4.27 | 13.07 | 20 | 85.83 | | 相对表现% | -2.72 | 13.95 | 21.23 | 74.83 | | 沪深 300% | -1.55 | -0.88 | -1.23 | 11 | 中科电气 300035.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 盈利逐步改善，海外市场持续拓展 2023-12-29 比亚迪发布快充新技术，公司有望积极受 益 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于负极材料价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Continuous attention is recommended for investment opportunities in the gold and steel sectors, with expectations of improved profitability in the steel industry due to changes in the iron ore supply landscape and a recovery in demand [2][14]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and reduce the pace of balance sheet reduction is expected to enhance dollar liquidity, benefiting gold prices [14]. - The steel sector has experienced three years of adjustment, and current positions present high potential returns, with leading companies showing improved profitability and stability [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve's March meeting kept interest rates unchanged, with guidance for two rate cuts within the year. Starting April 1, the monthly redemption cap for government bonds will decrease from $25 billion to $5 billion, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy [14]. 2. Steel Market - Steel consumption increased, with rebar consumption rising to 2.43 million tons, a 4.19% week-on-week increase. However, the overall price index for steel dropped by 1.17% [15][39]. - The total inventory of steel decreased significantly, with a notable year-on-year decline of 24.57% [26]. - Profit margins for long and short process rebar have decreased, with long process margins down by 14 CNY/ton and short process margins down by 48 CNY/ton [34][29]. 3. Industrial Metals - The TC/RC negative values have deepened, indicating potential for continued copper price increases. The LME aluminum price was reported at $2,652/ton, a 2.25% decrease week-on-week [17]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased, with significant profit increases reported for both Xinjiang and Shandong regions [17]. 4. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to reach new highs due to increased demand driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. As of March 21, COMEX gold prices were reported at $3,028.2/oz, a 1.16% increase week-on-week [17]. - The non-commercial net long positions in gold increased by 9.25% week-on-week, indicating growing investor interest [17]. 5. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 57.44% in February 2025, with prices for battery-grade lithium reported at 74,400 CNY/ton [16][45]. - The demand for nickel and cobalt is also rising, with substantial increases in production and prices reported [47][54].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the new fast-charging technology released by BYD, which will enhance the demand for negative electrode materials [4][9] - The company has established deep partnerships with leading battery manufacturers, ensuring a stable future supply [9] - Cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures are showing positive results, leading to a gradual improvement in profitability [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 5,257 million, with a projected decrease to 4,908 million in 2023, followed by a recovery to 5,348 million in 2024 and growth to 7,590 million in 2025 [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly from 42 million in 2023 to 301 million in 2024, and further to 609 million in 2025 [7] - Earnings per share are forecasted to improve from 0.06 in 2023 to 0.44 in 2024 and 0.89 in 2025 [7] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company is set at 24.03 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 27 times for 2025 [5] - The company's valuation is compared with peers, showing a range of price-to-earnings ratios from 15.0 to 86.07 among comparable companies [10] Market Performance - The company's absolute performance over the past week was -4.27%, while it showed a 20% increase over the past three months [2]

三大主线产品稳健增长，费效提升费用率 下降 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年报，对 25-26 年下调收入、毛利率。我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别 为 0.84、0.98、1.11 元（原预测 25-26 年为 0.97、1.18 元）。结合可比公司，我们 认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 25 年的 31 倍市盈率，对应目标价 26.04 元，维持买 入评级。 风险提示 消费升级不及预期、费用投放超预期、未达业绩目标风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,548 | 3,021 | 3,297 | 3,649 | 3,946 | | 同比增长 (%) | 26.6% | 18.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 397 | 486 | 545 | 630 | 712 | | 同比增长 (%) | 26.4% | 22.5% | 12.1% | 15.6% | 1 ...

三大主线产品稳健增长，费效提升费用率 下降 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年报，对 25-26 年下调收入、毛利率。我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别 为 0.84、0.98、1.11 元（原预测 25-26 年为 0.97、1.18 元）。结合可比公司，我们 认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 25 年的 31 倍市盈率，对应目标价 26.04 元，维持买 入评级。 风险提示 消费升级不及预期、费用投放超预期、未达业绩目标风险。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,548 | 3,021 | 3,297 | 3,649 | 3,946 | | 同比增长 (%) | 26.6% | 18.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 397 | ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 央行多投放流动性了吗？ 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | | Company of the Research and Canadian Company of Children | | --- | --- | | 市场周观察 | 齐晟 | | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | 从金融数据看近期流动性格局：固定收益 | 2025-03-17 | | --- | --- | | 市场周观察 | | | 3-4 月债市利率向下的季节性规律能否 ...

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 核心观点 原油相关信息： ⚫ 原油及相关库存：2025 年 3 月 14 日美国原油商业库存 4.370 亿桶，周增加 170 万 桶；汽油库存 2.406 亿桶，周减少 50 万桶；馏分油库存 1.148 亿桶，周减少 280 万 桶；丙烷库存 0.43349 亿桶，周减少 191.0 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 3 月 14 日美国原油产量为 1357.3 万桶/天，周度减少 0.2 万桶/天，较一年前增加 47.3 万桶/天。2025 年 3 月 21 日美国钻机数 593 台，周度增加 1 台，年减少 31 台； 加拿大钻机数 180 台，周减少 19 台，年度增加 11 台。其中美国采油钻机 486 台， 周度减少 1 台，年减少 23 台。 价格变化： 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外销售不及预期；原材料价格大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 24 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.55 HKD, equivalent to 16.20 CNY [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share (EPS), with projections of 1.43 CNY for 2024, 1.08 CNY for 2025, and 1.29 CNY for 2026. The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies is maintained at 15 times [2]. - The company has upgraded its brand to "Galaxy" and launched the "Qianli Haohan" intelligent driving system, which is expected to enhance sales and market presence [6][7]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 1 million vehicles for the Galaxy brand in 2025, with plans to introduce five new electric models [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 147,965 million CNY in 2022 to 316,008 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.3% [4][8]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly in 2024 to 13,751 million CNY, before experiencing a decline in 2025 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,260 million CNY in 2022 to 12,948 million CNY in 2026, with a notable increase of 172.1% in 2024 [4][8]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 15.6% from 2024 onwards, while the net margin is expected to improve slightly to 4.1% by 2026 [4][8]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 28.6 in 2022 to 11.6 by 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [4][8].