固定收益 | 动态跟踪 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | 021-63326320 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | 021-63326320 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | 强赎触发频繁，博弈收益可观 | 2025-09-14 | | --- | --- | | 再议本轮债市调整原因：固定收益市场周 | 2025-09-09 | | 观察 | | | 土储专项债供给增多，对城投债务压力缓 | 2025-09-08 | | 释效果有限：信用债市场周观察 | | 风险提示 估值小幅压缩，跟涨能力减弱 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 政策变化超预期；货币政策 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 低位板块开始产生吸引力 策略周报 20250914 研究结论 ⚫ 指数仍有上行空间，但需要开始关注风险 本周上证指数运行至新高附近（收于 3870.6 点），上周指数回调之际，我们提出震 荡上行趋势未变，本周修复符合预期。指数仍有上行空间，但此时更应关注短期上 行的阻力，我们认为阻力正在逐渐加大，需要开始关注短期持续上行后的调整风 险。 ⚫ 低位板块开始产生吸引力 行业结构方面，本周电子（6.1%）、房地产（6.0%）和农林牧渔（4.8%）领涨。 通信（3.0%）的表现符合我们上周认为会修复的观点，修复完成后，我们认为短 期需要且行且退。上周我们认为科技内部会切换，高端制造是重点，本周低位出现 普涨的情况，科技内部切换存在但并不领先，我们认为低位周期板块开始产生吸引 力，关注化工、农林牧渔、钢铁和食品饮料，板块内部分公司存在盈利修复的预 期，值得关注的是盈利修复后，部分公司的红利吸引力会提升。 ⚫ 主题方面，高端制造攻势尚在，布局关注低位制造业和周期题材 1）高端制造的进攻势头未变 我们认为高端制造短期进攻势头尚在，关注国产半导体&先进制程和机器人，但需要 注意追涨风险。国产半导体&先 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [9][24]. Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing (社融) has declined for the first time this year, primarily due to weak credit demand and a decrease in government bonds, with August's social financing year-on-year growth at 8.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 percentage points [9][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in new loans, with a year-on-year decrease of 3,100 billion yuan in August, reflecting ongoing challenges in the credit market [14][20]. - M1 growth shows a trend of improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 6.0% in August, although non-bank deposits have cooled compared to previous months [20][21]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - In August 2025, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which was higher than market expectations, but still represented a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan [9][10]. - The report notes that the decline in social financing is largely driven by a reduction in both corporate loans and government bonds, with corporate direct financing also seeing a slight decrease [11][12]. Loan Dynamics - Total RMB loans grew by 6.8% year-on-year in August, with new loans amounting to 590 billion yuan, slightly above expectations but still reflecting a year-on-year decrease [14][15]. - The report identifies a "seesaw" effect between short-term corporate loans and bill discounting, indicating a strategic shift in bank lending practices [15][16]. Deposit Trends - In August, M1 and M2 growth rates were 6.0% and 8.8% respectively, with a narrowing gap between the two [20][21]. - New RMB deposits totaled 2.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1,600 billion yuan, indicating a shift in deposit behavior among residents and enterprises [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: high-dividend stocks due to insurance rate adjustments and fundamentally strong small to medium-sized banks [24]. - Specific stock recommendations include China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and others, with some rated as "Buy" [24].

固定收益 | 专题报告 强赎触发频繁，博弈收益可观 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 14 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | 再议本轮债市调整原因：固定收益市场周 | 2025-09-09 | | --- | --- | | 观察 | | | 土储专项债供给增多，对城投债务压力缓 | 2025-09-08 | | 释效果有限：信用债市场周观察 | | | 估值回调暂告段落，转债进入震荡慢涨阶 | 2025-09-08 | | 段：可转债市场周观察 | | 风险提示： 可转债风险暴露超预期；可 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [6][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the release of Tesla's next-generation dexterous hand is expected to enhance the flexibility and functionality of the dexterous hand industry, leading to an optimistic outlook for the industry chain [3][9]. - The dexterous hand technology has undergone significant iterations, with Tesla's third-generation model achieving 22 degrees of freedom, which is a substantial increase from the first generation's 11 degrees [9][10]. - The report emphasizes that the advancement in dexterous hand technology will not only improve product value but also drive the overall industry towards higher degrees of freedom and functionality [14]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report tracks the robotics industry, particularly focusing on the dexterous hand segment, which is poised for upgrades and increased market activity [1][5]. Technological Advancements - Tesla's dexterous hand has evolved through multiple iterations, with the latest model featuring 26 actuators per arm, significantly enhancing its operational capabilities [10][9]. - The integration of multiple sensors in dexterous hands is expected to create a multi-modal data collection platform, which will improve AI training efficiency and model generalization capabilities [13][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several investment targets within the dexterous hand industry, including Zhenyu Technology (300953, Buy), Hanwei Technology (300007, Not Rated), Nanshan Zhishang (300918, Not Rated), and Mingzhi Electric (603728, Not Rated) [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 48.48 CNY, based on a 24x PE for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated stable performance with a revenue of 46.6 billion CNY in H1 2025, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 12.0 billion CNY, up 7.4% year-on-year [10]. - The dual growth drivers are the respiratory and blood glucose monitoring businesses, with the respiratory product line seeing over 40% growth due to continuous R&D and improved sales channels [10]. - The company is actively expanding overseas, achieving 6.1 billion CNY in international revenue in H1 2025, a 26.6% increase year-on-year, with a focus on respiratory therapy products [10]. - The company is investing in AI wearable technology to create a health management ecosystem, integrating various health monitoring devices to enhance brand loyalty [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 8,669 million CNY, 9,971 million CNY, and 11,302 million CNY, respectively, with a growth rate of 14.6%, 15.0%, and 13.4% [5]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 2,020 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 11.9% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 2.02 CNY, with subsequent years projected at 2.37 CNY and 2.81 CNY [3][5].

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In August, the core CPI and PPI both showed year-on-year improvement, driven by simultaneous policy efforts on both supply and demand sides[6] - The core CPI year-on-year growth has expanded for four consecutive months, with industrial consumer goods prices improving due to consumption promotion policies[6] - The CPI in August was -0.4%, while the core CPI was 0.9%, indicating a significant divergence primarily due to the drag from pork prices[6] Group 2: PPI Dynamics - The PPI year-on-year decline has narrowed for the first time since March, indicating a shift towards more positive signals driven by domestic demand[6] - Key sectors like black metal smelting saw PPI improvements, with year-on-year declines of -4% compared to -10% previously, reflecting better pricing and production conditions[6] - Emerging industries are expected to continue supporting PPI growth, with sectors like electronic materials and smart drones showing stable performance[6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - Upgrading consumption demand remains a crucial support for PPI, with certain sectors like sports equipment and nutritional food manufacturing showing year-on-year PPI growth of no less than 0.9%[6] - Policies aimed at enhancing consumer sentiment, such as "old-for-new" exchanges, are expected to further stimulate service consumption[6] - The overall external trade environment remains challenging, but domestic demand is anticipated to be the main driver for future recovery in both CPI and PPI[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 65.78 yuan based on a 23x PE valuation for 2025 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 21.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.63 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year [11]. - The business structure continues to optimize, with the industrial sales revenue accounting for 40.0% of total revenue, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a gross margin of 30.9%, up 1.6 percentage points [11]. - The pharmaceutical and health product segments are driving growth, with the pharmaceutical segment achieving a revenue of 4.75 billion yuan, a 10.8% increase year-on-year, and the health product segment reaching 3.44 billion yuan, up 9.5% year-on-year [11]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 39.11 billion yuan in 2023 to 46.78 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.6% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 4.09 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.15 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 9.6% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 2.29 yuan in 2023 to 3.44 yuan in 2027 [6]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 25.9 in 2023 to 17.3 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [6]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 2.7 in 2023 to 2.2 in 2027, suggesting a more attractive valuation relative to its book value [6]. Market Performance - As of September 10, 2025, the company's stock price was 59.43 yuan, with a 52-week high of 64.36 yuan and a low of 47.77 yuan [7]. - The stock has shown a relative performance of 0% over the past week and a 6.33% increase over the past month [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company's fundamentals are gradually improving, and high dividend expectations are likely to continue [2][10]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast slightly, expecting earnings per share of 0.60, 0.67, and 0.77 yuan for 2025-2027 [4][11]. - The target price is set at 9.60 yuan based on a 16x PE valuation for 2025 [4][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 5,315 in 2023, decreasing to 4,559 in 2024, then gradually increasing to 5,443 by 2027, with a CAGR of 7.5% from 2025 to 2027 [4][13]. - Operating profit is expected to decline from 662 million yuan in 2023 to 490 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 751 million yuan in 2027 [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 572 million yuan in 2023 to 433 million yuan in 2024, then increase to 639 million yuan by 2027 [4][13]. - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend ratio of 115% expected in 2024 [10]. Operational Insights - The company has seen improvements in terminal sales in July and August, with expectations of nearly double-digit growth year-on-year [10]. - The company is one of the early adopters in the industry to optimize channels and inventory, leading to improved operational quality [10]. - The establishment of the Luolai Smart Industrial Park is expected to enhance supply chain capabilities and operational efficiency [10]. Market Position - The company is considered relatively attractive within the textile and apparel industry, with domestic e-commerce and direct sales being key growth drivers [10][11]. - The U.S. furniture business is under pressure but is expected to show marginal improvement starting from Q3 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience, achieving a revenue of 21.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 3.63 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year [11]. - The dual-engine growth from the pharmaceutical and health product segments is driving performance, with the pharmaceutical segment growing by 10.8% year-on-year, contributing significantly to overall revenue [11]. - The company is actively enhancing its innovation pipeline, with 16 major traditional Chinese medicine projects under secondary development and 37 ongoing projects, including innovative drug development focused on societal needs [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 39,111 in 2023, projected to reach 42,417 in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [6]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): 4,094 in 2023, expected to grow to 5,110 in 2025, reflecting a 7.6% increase [6]. - Earnings per share (yuan): 2.29 in 2023, projected to increase to 2.86 in 2025 [6]. - Gross margin (%): Expected to rise from 26.5% in 2023 to 28.9% in 2025 [6]. - Net margin (%): Anticipated to improve from 10.5% in 2023 to 12.0% in 2025 [6]. - Return on equity (%): Expected to increase from 10.4% in 2023 to 12.7% in 2025 [6].