1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus is shifting towards medium - quality entities within industries such as steel, coal, real estate, local state - owned construction enterprises, and non - bank finance. In Q3, it is advisable to explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. For institutions with high risk tolerance, there are opportunities to compress the liquidity premium of some high - quality private enterprises. For industries with low overall risks like public utilities, regular allocation is sufficient [5]. - For ultra - long credit bonds, it is time to gradually take profits, shorten the duration for defense, and switch to more liquid varieties, waiting for the next opportunity to attack [6]. - In Q3, different industries present various investment opportunities and risks. For example, the construction industry may see marginal improvement in prosperity but still face pressure; the steel industry has strong expectations of marginal improvement in fundamentals; the coal industry needs to select high - quality entities for exploration; the real estate industry has high - valued state - owned enterprises with certain investment potential; the non - ferrous metal industry has a differentiated prosperity; and the cement industry has limited opportunities [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Q3 Ultra - long Credit Bond Strategy: Gradually Take Profits and Wait for Subsequent Attack Opportunities 3.1.1 Primary Issuance - In Q2, the supply of ultra - long credit bonds increased month - on - month, with large industrial central state - owned enterprises remaining the main financing force. The total issuance in H1 was 539.8 billion yuan, and Q2 increased by 63% month - on - month, accounting for 9.27% of all credit bonds, but still lower than Q3 last year. The issuers were mainly industrial, accounting for about 72%, and large central state - owned enterprises such as State Grid had large issuance volumes [16]. - Since early July, the bond market has adjusted, and the supply of ultra - long credit bonds may be frustrated in the short term, and its subsequent recovery remains to be observed [18]. 3.1.2 Yield Analysis - To obtain significant excess returns from extending the credit duration, either interest rate decline or spread compression must occur, and the amplitude should be large enough [31]. - The trigger for the sharp decline of ultra - long credit bonds in recent years is mostly the reversal of institutional behavior. Currently, although it is predicted that there will be a double - bull market for stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, the short - term risk cannot be ignored due to the impact of the "stock - bond seesaw" on market sentiment [34]. - In terms of capital gains, the odds of ultra - long credit bonds are decreasing; the one - two - level arbitrage space is difficult to find; and the coupon protection ability is weak, making it difficult to increase the winning rate. Therefore, it is recommended to gradually take profits and switch to more liquid varieties such as 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [37]. 3.1.3 Strategy - For most institutions, it is time to gradually take profits from ultra - long credit bonds. The reasons include the difficulty in continuing the excess returns in the future, the fragility of the market's optimistic sentiment, the lack of obvious coupon advantages and protection ability, and the relatively small advantage compared with 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [46][51]. 3.2 Q3 Industrial Bond Strategy: Explore Industry Allocation Opportunities under "Anti - involution" 3.2.1 Construction - In 2025, the construction industry has been under pressure since the beginning of the year, and the downward trend in prosperity continued into Q2. In Q3, although factors such as accelerated capital arrival, the "anti - involution" initiative, and overseas growth are expected to bring marginal improvement in prosperity, the industry will still be under pressure overall, and industry concentration may further increase, benefiting leading central state - owned enterprises [48][52]. - In terms of bond valuation, the industry's valuation declined steadily in the second quarter. The spread of central state - owned enterprises narrowed, and some local state - owned enterprises had a large decline in valuation, but the valuation of some enterprises was still unstable [55]. - The strategy is to mainly explore subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises and selectively allocate local state - owned enterprises. For institutions with low risk tolerance, continue to explore high - valued subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises or leading local state - owned enterprises; for institutions that can accept a certain degree of credit quality downgrade, local state - owned enterprises provide greater return space, but it is not recommended to over - explore them [56]. 3.2.2 Steel - In Q2, steel prices fluctuated downward, but rose rapidly in early July under the support of cost and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies [60]. - In terms of fundamentals, supply is cautiously released, demand recovery in Q2 was less than expected, and total inventory is expected to further decline. In the short term, steel prices and steel enterprise profits are expected to be strong, but there is a risk of a callback [61][65][67]. - Medium - quality entities have strong motivation to compress spreads, and it is expected that the spreads of medium - grade mainstream entities such as HBIS and Shandong Steel will continue to compress. They can be appropriately allocated [71]. 3.2.3 Coal - In the second quarter, the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward and then rebounded at the end of the quarter, while the price of coking coal rose briefly in April and then fell, also rebounding at the end of June [74]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply structure is relatively loose, and production inspections may lead to subsequent tightening. The demand for thermal coal is seasonally improving, while the probability of "oversupply" of coking coal is relatively large. Port inventories are continuously being depleted [76][80]. - It is expected that the coal price rebound may continue, with thermal coal being stronger than coking coal. In Q3, exploration still needs to select high - quality entities, and Jinmei Group is still the target of exploration by mainstream institutions [7][80]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - In Q3, the downward pressure on the real estate industry may continue to increase. The real estate sector is currently the highest - valued sector among state - owned enterprises, with a certain thickness of coupon and potential for exploration. Although the market is concerned about the emotional fluctuations brought about by Vanke's support willingness, the fluctuations are relatively controllable under the attraction of absolute returns, and it has cost - effectiveness [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - In the non - ferrous metals industry, for gold, the market is mainly speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the long - term upward trend of the central price remains unchanged; for copper, the mining end is generally tight but with marginal increments, and the demand side is weak; for aluminum, the inventory has been depleted more than expected, and the demand - side risk is small, and the profit space of electrolytic aluminum plants is expected to continue [7]. - In terms of strategy, the valuations of high - quality but over - valued entities such as Nanshan Group, Hongqiao New Materials, and Luoyang Aluminum Industry are expected to continue to decline, while there are few opportunities for other entities [7]. 3.2.6 Cement - In Q2, cement prices almost declined unilaterally, and manufacturers faced the risk of losses. Attention should be paid to the implementation of over - production governance under "anti - involution." Currently, except for Hongshi, the spreads of the cement sector are basically compressed within 30bp, and it is difficult to obtain excess returns, so the overall opportunities in the cement sector are limited [7]. 3.2.7 Strategy - In Q3, explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. The current spread of entities with a spread of 40 - 50bp is about 20bp different from that of leading entities, and it is expected that the spread will be compressed in Q3 [5]. 3.3 Q2 Industrial Bond Market Review: Convergent Trends and Deviation from Fundamentals 3.3.1 Issuance and Financing Situation - In Q2, industrial bonds had a large net inflow of 732.1 billion yuan, and public utilities led in net financing [14]. 3.3.2 Yield and Spread Trends - After the yield was repaired in Q2, it fluctuated at a low level. The trading logic was that the loose capital tone ran through the entire quarter, and the performance of different industries in the industrial bond market was not significantly differentiated, and the spread trend deviated from fundamentals [9]. 3.3.3 Liquidity - Since Q2, the liquidity of credit bonds has been continuously improving, and the trading heat of ultra - long credit bonds reached its peak in mid - June [14]. 3.3.4 Credit Risk - In Q2, there were 2 entities with substantial bond defaults and 4 domestic entities with rating/ outlook downgrades, but the overall credit risk was controllable [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [5]. Core Insights - The military industry is expected to see a significant increase in fund allocation, with a focus on military trade and new combat capabilities. The report suggests that the military trade sector will continue to catalyze growth, and there is still room for upward movement in holdings [2][34]. - The report highlights that the pessimistic expectations for the military industry's upstream have already been reflected in stock prices, and an increase in market confidence regarding the sustainability of the industry will likely enhance upstream holdings [34]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Allocation Trends - In Q2 2025, the active funds' heavy allocation in the military sector increased significantly, with a rise in the allocation ratio from 0.57 percentage points to 0.92 percentage points. The total market value of active funds in the military sector grew by 20.77% [12][8]. - The report notes that the allocation ratio for component stocks decreased significantly, but it is expected to rebound as orders materialize and market conditions improve [18][22]. 2. Focus Areas for Investment - The report recommends focusing on specific sub-sectors within the military industry, including: - Military Electronics: Companies like Zhenhua Technology (000733, Buy), Aerospace Electronics (002025, Buy), and others [2][34]. - Key Materials and Components: Companies such as Western Superconducting (688122, Buy) and others [2][34]. - Engine Chain: Companies like Aero Engine Corporation (600893, Not Rated) and others [2][34]. - Military Trade: Companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760, Not Rated) and others [2][34]. - New Quality Productivity: Companies like Aerospace Electronics (600879, Not Rated) and others [3][34]. 3. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the military trade business is expected to accelerate, with a positive outlook for military trade stocks. The active funds are increasingly focusing on sectors benefiting from military trade and new combat capabilities [7][22]. - The report emphasizes that the market's understanding of the marginal elasticity of military trade for military enterprises is still insufficient, suggesting that future catalysts and performance releases will strengthen the military trade logic [22][34].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - Emphasis on AI application commercialization in the second half of the year, with a focus on vertical AI application investment opportunities, particularly in strong application areas in China [2][7] - The report suggests that the META logic will be important next year, where improvements in click-through rates (CTR) driven by AI model capabilities will enhance revenue and lead to valuation restructuring [2][7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on vertical AI application investment opportunities in the second half of the year, with potential for rapid commercialization in companies with overseas AI application layouts. Recommended stocks include Kuaishou-W (01024, Buy), Meitu (01357, Not Rated), and AI recruitment sector companies such as BOSS Zhipin-W (02076, Buy) [2] - For the end of this year and next year, the report highlights the importance of META logic, suggesting to follow the actual testing results from major companies. Recommended stocks include Alibaba-W (09988, Buy) and Tencent Holdings (00700, Buy) [2] Industry Overview - Globally, AI application products have achieved a certain level of commercialization, with products generating annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $50 million categorized into three types: general model service subscription products, AI native products for specific scenarios, and AI-enhanced existing business scenarios [7] - The report emphasizes that domestic companies have achieved earlier commercialization in multi-modal scenarios compared to overseas counterparts, particularly in B-end applications like AI image editing and video generation [7] - The report notes significant revenue growth in AI video generation products, with monthly revenue exceeding 100 million yuan by April and May 2025, showcasing a rapid increase [7] Financial Metrics - The report provides specific ARR figures for various AI companies, such as OpenAI with $10 billion and Anthropic with $4 billion, highlighting their market valuations and revenue generation capabilities [8]

Group 1: Q3 Super Long Credit Bond Strategy - The report suggests gradually taking profits on super long credit bonds and switching to shorter-term, more liquid varieties while waiting for the next investment opportunity [6][10][26] - In Q2, the issuance of super long credit bonds increased significantly, with a total of 539.8 billion yuan, marking a 63% increase from the previous quarter [10][12] - The report indicates that the current market conditions do not support further exploration of super long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains and limited arbitrage opportunities [26][27] Group 2: Q3 Industry Bond Strategy - The strategy focuses on identifying investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" initiative across various industries [6][10] - In the construction sector, while there is a marginal improvement expected due to funding acceleration and the "anti-involution" initiative, the overall industry remains under pressure [6][10] - The steel industry shows strong expectations for marginal improvement, with opportunities for continued compression of spreads among mid-tier players like Hebei Steel and Shandong Steel [6][10] - The coal sector anticipates a rebound in prices, with a focus on major players like Jin Energy, while cash flow improvements may exceed expectations [6][10] - The real estate sector faces increasing downward pressure, but state-owned enterprises still present attractive absolute returns [6][10] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the report highlights a divergence in market conditions, with opportunities for compression in spreads among quality private enterprises [6][10] - The cement industry is under significant pressure, with risks of losses and limited opportunities for excess returns [6][10] - The overall strategy recommends focusing on medium-quality entities across industries, particularly in steel, coal, real estate, and construction, while keeping an eye on the "anti-involution" initiative and the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry [7] Core Insights - The overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of listed banks has shown a steady decline since 2021, with a potential hidden NPL ratio of approximately 5 basis points by the end of 2024 [4][10] - Credit costs have been decreasing, leading to a robust provisioning buffer, with the provisioning coverage ratio and loan-to-provision ratio standing at 238% and 2.93% respectively as of Q1 2025 [4][10] - The report emphasizes that the current asset quality pressure on banks is expected to be better than in previous cycles, primarily due to the diversified nature of household loans and supportive regulatory policies [9][10] Summary by Sections Understanding the Relationship Between Economic Debt Cycles and Banking Risk Cycles - The report discusses how the debt of the real economy corresponds to the assets of banks, with credit expansion flowing from banks to the economy and risk exposure arising from debt risks in the economy [9][16] Historical Overview of Excess Capacity and Non-Performing Loans - From 2008 onwards, the banking sector experienced a cycle of rising non-performing loans, particularly in the corporate sector, driven by excess capacity and deteriorating profitability [21][27] - The macro leverage ratio increased significantly during 2009 and 2012-2014, with corporate sectors being the main contributors to this leverage [21][25] Current Debt Cycle and Asset Quality - The report indicates that while household sector risks are still evolving, the asset quality pressure on banks is expected to be more manageable compared to previous cycles [9][10] - The provisioning levels remain robust, with a significant decline in credit costs, indicating a strong safety net for banks [4][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend banks in anticipation of a potential reduction in insurance premium rates, recommending banks such as China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [10] - It also highlights the strong performance of small and medium-sized banks, suggesting continued interest in banks like Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank based on various factors including valuation and dividend yield [10]

- The report highlights that active equity funds have shown a preference for small and mid-cap growth stocks, with a significant increase in the allocation to the CSI 500 index, reaching the highest level since 2018[5][22][23] - The allocation to technology and manufacturing sectors remains strong, with technology and healthcare emerging as the most promising sectors[5][33][34] - The report indicates that the allocation to the healthcare sector has significantly increased, with healthcare funds attracting substantial inflows despite the overall contraction of active equity funds[5][46][47] - The report also notes that the allocation to Hong Kong stocks has surged, with the healthcare sector replacing internet giants as the new growth driver[5][43][44] - The report provides detailed data on the allocation of active equity funds across different sectors and individual stocks, showing a preference for high-growth and high-certainty small-cap stocks[5][26][27][38][39] - The report suggests that investors should follow the trend of increasing allocations to flexible allocation funds and small and mid-cap growth funds[5][20][21][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The commercialization of semi-solid batteries is accelerating, with a rich variety of application scenarios and expected order volume growth. Semi-solid batteries are an effective technical solution to enhance energy density and safety performance before the large-scale application of all-solid batteries. The recent recall of power banks has raised public awareness of battery safety, leading to stricter national standards for power batteries [3][9] - High-performance requirements in emerging markets such as eVTOL, robotics, and smart wearables support product premium pricing, allowing battery manufacturers to transfer costs and achieve significant product margins. This is beneficial for structural improvement in gross margins and provides feedback for the material validation and technical research of all-solid batteries [9] - The growth of semi-solid batteries will accelerate the maturity of the all-solid battery supply chain, as the experience gained from large-scale production of semi-solid batteries can be transferred to all-solid systems, shortening the material iteration cycle [9] Summary by Sections Commercialization and Application - Semi-solid batteries are expanding their commercial application scenarios, with significant breakthroughs in orders. For instance, Shanghai-based technology company has received a $1 billion order for 350 eVTOLs from UAE's Autocraft, with a second-generation semi-solid battery supplied by a specific battery manufacturer [3] - In the 3C sector, a new generation of ultra-safe "soft armor solid-state" products has been launched, receiving bulk orders from leading mobile power customers, indicating broader future applications in safety-critical scenarios [3] Investment Recommendations and Targets - It is recommended to focus on battery companies that have a first-mover advantage in emerging markets, such as Haopeng Technology, Guansheng Co., and Weilan Lithium Core [9] - Attention is also drawn to core suppliers of high-performance positive and negative electrode materials, including Tiantian Technology, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, and Shanghai Washba [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the banking industry [6] Core Insights - Active equity funds have increased their holdings in A-share banks, with a total of 4.90% of their heavy positions in the banking sector as of Q2 2025, up by 1.14 percentage points from Q1 2025 [10][12] - Passive funds have also seen an increase, with their heavy positions in A-share banks rising to 11.15%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points [10][19] - The report highlights a preference for low-valuation joint-stock banks and high-growth city commercial banks among active funds [12] Summary by Sections Active Equity Funds - As of Q2 2025, active equity funds held 4.90% of their heavy positions in banks, with a total of 49.17 billion shares, an increase of 6.64 billion shares from Q1 2025 [10][12] - The market value of these holdings reached 640.78 billion yuan, up by 135.08 billion yuan [10][12] - The top five stocks favored by active funds include China Merchants Bank (1.01%), Jiangsu Bank (0.54%), Ningbo Bank (0.51%), Hangzhou Bank (0.45%), and Chengdu Bank (0.41%) [10][12] Passive Equity Funds - Passive funds increased their holdings to 71.47 billion shares, a rise of 16.23 billion shares from Q1 2025 [10][19] - The market value of these holdings reached 1,332.61 billion yuan, an increase of 288.32 billion yuan [10][19] - Key stocks with significant inflows include China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank, while Bank of China and Qingdao Bank saw reductions in holdings [10][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines: 1. High-dividend banks in anticipation of a potential reduction in insurance premium rates, recommending stocks like China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [10][12] 2. Strong-performing small and medium-sized banks, with recommendations for Industrial Bank, CITIC Bank, Nanjing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.14 CNY per share, based on a valuation of 84 billion CNY [4][7][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a decline in revenue and gross margin for 2025-2026, with revised earnings per share projections of 0.29, 0.50, and 0.57 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][12]. - The report highlights the growing potential of instant retail channels for the company, driven by a younger consumer demographic and changing consumption habits [11]. - The company has a strong advantage in the instant retail space due to its extensive store network and partnerships with leading liquor brands, ensuring product authenticity [11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) is projected to decline from 10,121 in 2023 to 9,713 in 2025, before recovering to 10,865 by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -6.5% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025 [6]. - Operating profit is expected to drop significantly from 256 million CNY in 2023 to 87 million CNY in 2024, with a recovery to 132 million CNY in 2025 [6]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 235 million CNY in 2023 to 44 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 120 million CNY in 2025 [6]. - The company's gross margin is projected to decline from 10.7% in 2023 to 9.0% in 2024, with a slight recovery to 9.8% by 2027 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a wide store network with 2,000 stores and over 30,000 service points across major cities in China, positioning it well for growth in the instant retail market [11]. - The report notes that major liquor brands are increasingly entering the instant retail space, indicating a competitive landscape that the company is well-prepared to navigate [11]. - The shift in consumer behavior towards instant purchasing, particularly among younger demographics, presents a significant opportunity for the company to enhance its market share [11].

Group 1: Tariff Risks - The U.S. may implement a second round of tariff increases by late July to early August, depending on negotiation outcomes[6] - If U.S. financial markets show limited reaction to tariff actions, President Trump is likely to proceed with the scheduled tariff increases[6] - The focus on U.S. industry tariffs, particularly under Section 232, is expected to rise, with new investigations announced for drones and polysilicon[6] Group 2: Middle East Stability - The political environment in Israel is deteriorating, increasing the risk of instability in the Middle East[6] - Recent withdrawals from the ruling coalition by right-wing parties may lead to a loss of parliamentary majority for Netanyahu's government[6] - If the Israeli parliament is not dissolved by the end of July, there is a risk of aggressive policies being adopted by the Netanyahu government to salvage its political standing[6]