宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 09 日 | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 彭楚榕 | pengchurong@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080005 | | 型经济 | | | --- | --- | | 东方战略周观察：对等关税冲击越南外向 东方战略周观察：特朗普 4 月关税政策 | 2025-04-21 2025-04-17 | 研究结论 战略动向复盘：2025 ...

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 看好高速覆铜板树脂材料的发展机遇 下游需求增长及技术迭代不及预期；项目投产不及预期；高速树脂技术研发进展不及预 期；下游及终端技术迭代风险；核心客户认证及供应风险；假设条件变化影响测算结果 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 09 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | 顾雪莺 | guxueying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080005 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ AI 服务器需求爆发带来国内高速树脂材料的国产化机会。 AI 大模型的发展离不开高 性能的硬件支持，也因此延伸出了对高性能新材料的需求。由于 AI 服务器对信号传 输速率要求更高，其覆铜板所用材料需要满足更高的电性能要求，普通 ...

主要客户车型调整影响业绩，机器人业务 全面推进 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 35.38、42.86、51.17 亿元，可比公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 35 倍，目标价 71.40 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 机器人业务进展不及预期、乘用车行业销量低于预期、NVH 产品、内饰功能件产品、轻 量化底盘产品、热管理产品配套量低于预期、产品价格下降幅度超预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年05月08日） | 52.38 元 | | 目标价格 | 71.40 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 76.21/30.69 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 173,784/173,784 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 91,028 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 汽车与零部件 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 05 月 09 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

主要客户车型调整影响业绩，机器人业务 全面推进 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 35.38、42.86、51.17 亿元，可比公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 35 倍，目标价 71.40 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 机器人业务进展不及预期、乘用车行业销量低于预期、NVH 产品、内饰功能件产品、轻 量化底盘产品、热管理产品配套量低于预期、产品价格下降幅度超预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 19,701 | 26,600 | 33,461 | 41,551 | 49,344 | | 同比增长 (%) | 23.2% | 35.0% | 25.8% | 24.2% | 18.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,476 | 3,420 | 4,005 | 4,853 | 5,795 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.2% | 38.1% | 17.1% | 21.2% | 1 ...

盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.54、0.69、0.86 元（原 2025-2026 年 预测值为 0.81、0.97 元，调整原因主要系电线电缆行业整体承压，公司为保证市场 份额毛利率有所受损），结合可比公司估值水平，给予公司 2025 年 32 倍市盈率， 对应目标价为 17.28 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游电缆需求不及预期；产能投放不及预期；行业竞争加剧导致产品价格下降；机 器人业务发展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 15,121 | 17,761 | 21,701 | 23,408 | 25,224 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.0% | 17.5% | 22.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 608 | 379 | 602 | 772 | 960 | | 同比增长 (%) | 33.3% | -37.7% | 59.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.28 CNY based on a 32x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing growth in traditional business segments while innovating in the robot cable sector, which is expected to enhance its market position [1][9]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 17.76 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, while net profit is expected to decline by 38.6% to 341 million CNY [4][9]. - The company is focusing on high polymer materials and has achieved significant market share in the high voltage cable segment, with a revenue increase of 32.29% in 2024 [9]. - The robot cable division has developed advanced technology, positioning the company as a leader in the domestic market, with products capable of exceeding 30 million bending cycles [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 15.12 billion CNY - 2024: 17.76 billion CNY (17.5% growth) - 2025: 21.70 billion CNY (22.2% growth) - 2026: 23.41 billion CNY (7.9% growth) - 2027: 25.22 billion CNY (7.8% growth) [4][11] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 555 million CNY - 2024: 341 million CNY (-38.6% growth) - 2025: 544 million CNY (59.3% growth) - 2026: 700 million CNY (28.8% growth) - 2027: 874 million CNY (24.8% growth) [4][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.55 CNY - 2024: 0.34 CNY - 2025: 0.54 CNY - 2026: 0.69 CNY - 2027: 0.86 CNY [4][11] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: Expected to improve from 11.3% in 2024 to 12.1% in 2027 - Net Margin: Expected to increase from 1.9% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2027 - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected to rise from 6.2% in 2024 to 12.0% in 2027 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 67.50 CNY, based on a 27x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 41.8% year-on-year in Q1, with total revenue reaching 2.638 billion CNY and a net profit of 270 million CNY, reflecting a 28.8% increase [9]. - The company is expanding its customer base, having added eight new clients in North America, including Ford and Changan Mazda, which is expected to drive future growth [9]. - The company is focusing on new technology and product development, aiming to enhance its competitive edge and increase the value per vehicle through innovations in electric control systems and lightweight components [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.011 billion CNY, 15.962 billion CNY, and 19.698 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.9%, 22.7%, and 23.4% [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.518 billion CNY in 2025, 1.863 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.298 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 25.6%, 22.8%, and 23.3% [4][11]. - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.0% to 22.5% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to remain at 11.7% [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 67.50 CNY, based on a 27x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 41.8% year-on-year in Q1, with total revenue reaching 2.638 billion CNY and a net profit of 270 million CNY, reflecting a 28.8% increase [9]. - The company is expanding its customer base, having added eight new clients in North America, including Ford and Changan Mazda, which is expected to drive future growth [9]. - The company is focusing on new technology and product development, aiming to enhance its competitive edge and increase the value per vehicle through innovations in electric control systems and lightweight components [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.011 billion CNY, 15.962 billion CNY, and 19.698 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.9%, 22.7%, and 23.4% [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.518 billion CNY in 2025, 1.863 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.298 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 25.6%, 22.8%, and 23.3% [4][11]. - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.0% to 22.5% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to remain at 11.7% [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 38.22 CNY, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 27.05 CNY [2][5]. Core Views - The company's performance exceeded market expectations, with Q1 revenue reaching 7.669 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 903 million CNY, up 39.5% year-on-year [9]. - The company is experiencing growth driven by increased domestic and international demand for air conditioning, as well as diversification of its customer base, which has helped mitigate risks associated with reliance on single customers [9]. - The company is strategically expanding its robotics business, which is expected to become a significant growth driver, particularly with the anticipated deployment of thousands of Optimus robots by Tesla by the end of 2025 [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 34.64 billion CNY, 39.40 billion CNY, and 43.97 billion CNY, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.9% for 2025 [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.67 billion CNY, 4.25 billion CNY, and 4.75 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.3% in 2025 [4]. - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable around 27.6% through 2027, while net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 10.6% to 10.8% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 38.22 CNY, based on a projected average PE of 39 times for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded market expectations, with Q1 revenue reaching 7.669 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 903 million CNY, up 39.5% year-on-year [9]. - The company is experiencing a positive trend in its air conditioning business due to increased domestic and international demand, supported by government incentives and market dynamics [9]. - The company is strategically expanding its robotics business, which is expected to become a significant growth driver, particularly with the anticipated mass production of humanoid robots [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 34.64 billion CNY, 39.396 billion CNY, and 43.972 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 23.9%, 13.7%, and 11.6% [4]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.666 billion CNY, 4.246 billion CNY, and 4.748 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 18.3%, 15.8%, and 11.8% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share**: Projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.98 CNY, 1.14 CNY, and 1.27 CNY, respectively [4]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 27.4% to 27.6%, while the net margin is projected to decline slightly from 11.9% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2025 [4].