Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and building materials industry [4] Core Insights - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to generate substantial construction and material orders [1][2] - The project is estimated to have a capacity of 60 million kW, with an average construction cost of 20,344 yuan/kW for hydropower projects in 2023 [1][2] - The project is anticipated to have a construction period of 15-20 years, leading to an annual investment of 60-80 billion yuan [2] - The project will significantly boost infrastructure investment growth in China, with a 4.6% year-on-year increase in infrastructure investment in the first half of 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project is located in Linzhi City, Tibet, and involves the construction of five tiered power stations to enhance power generation efficiency [1] - The total investment is about six times that of the Three Gorges Project, which had a total investment of 207.2 billion yuan [2] Investment Structure - The investment structure for hydropower projects includes approximately 32%-45% for permanent construction, 18%-25% for electromechanical equipment, and 10%-35% for other costs [2] Market Impact - The project is part of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is expected to effectively stimulate infrastructure investment growth [3] - Recommended companies to watch include China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, and several others involved in construction and materials [3]

2025 年 7 月 21 日 行业研究 ——医药生物行业跨市场周报（20250720） 要点 行情回顾：上周， A 股医药生物指数上涨 4.00%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.91pp， 跑赢创业板综指 1.75pp，在 31 个子行业中排名第 2。港股恒生医疗健康指数上 涨 12.0%，跑赢恒生国企指数 8.56pp。 上市公司研发进度跟踪：上周，百奥泰的BAT5906注射液、恒瑞医药的 HRS-2162 注射液的临床申请新进承办。华东医药的 HDM1002、正大天晴的 bosakitug 正 在进行三期临床；联邦制药的 UBT251 正在进行二期临床；海思科的 HSK45030 正在进行一期临床。 本周观点：医保与集采支撑有力，创新药行业成长动能强劲 近日，国家公布了 2024 年医保基金的运行状况与集采政策最新动态。截至 2024 年底，全国基本医疗保险（含生育保险）基金总收入 34913.37 亿元，总支出 29764.03 亿元，全国基本医保统筹基金累计结存 38628.5 亿元。整体来看，医 保基金收支结构合理，体现出运行的稳健性。7 月 15 日，国家组织药品联合采 购办公室公布第十一批集采品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity has resurfaced, leading to a new high in rebar spot prices since April [1]. - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at better aligning supply with demand [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [10][19]. - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, up 0.07% from the previous month [10][19]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high since April, with a weekly increase of 0.93% [1]. - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 91%, up 1.0 percentage points week-on-week [9][41]. - The average daily crude steel output for key enterprises in early July 2025 was 2.097 million tons [1][41]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 75.99%, an increase of 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20% [2]. Price Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.14 this week [3]. - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 160 yuan/ton, up 14.29% from last week [3]. Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [3]. Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.09%, with the best-performing sector being commercial vehicles, which rose by 5.98% [3]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.54, with a historical high of 0.82 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is likely to recover to historical average levels, supported by government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [4].

2025 年 7 月 21 日 总量研究 医药主题产品表现持续占优，被动资金加仓金融地产、红利主题 ETF ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250721 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.7.14-2025.7.18）国内权益市场指数涨势延续，创业板指领涨。行业方 面，本周各申万一级行业多数上涨，通信、医药生物、汽车行业涨幅居前， 传媒、房地产、公用事业行业跌幅居前。权益市场持续上行背景下，本周权 益类基金净值表现依旧领先，其中偏股混合型基金上涨 3.06%。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内新基市场热度不减，新成立基金 35 只，合计 发行份额为 214.85 亿份。其中股票型基金 20 只、债券型基金 3 只、混合型 基金 7 只、REITs4 只、FOF 基金 1 只。全市场新发行基金 33 只，从类型来 看，股票型基金 18 只、混合型基金 8 只、债券型基金 3 只、REITs2 只、 FOF 基金 1 只、国际(QDII)基金 1 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数方面，本周各赛道主题基金净值 再度抬升，医药主题基金表现优势显著。截至 202 ...

Macro Analysis - June retail data in the US showed a month-on-month increase, but the resilience should not be overestimated due to potential tariff disruptions and inflation adjustments. Actual retail sales growth was only 0.3% after adjusting for a 0.3% increase in the consumer price index [1] Market Strategy - The market has shifted from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven since September last year, with expectations for a new upward trend in the second half of 2025, potentially breaking through the peak of the second half of 2024 [2] Credit Bonds - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, a total of 386 credit bonds were issued, totaling 401.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.72% from the previous period. Notably, city investment bonds increased by 16.25% [3] REITs Market - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs showed a trend of rising then falling prices, with an overall return rate of 0.11%. Property-type REITs increased, while concession-type REITs decreased [4] Quantitative Analysis - Market momentum effects were dominant, with public research selection strategies yielding significant excess returns. The public research selection strategy outperformed the CSI 800 by 3.33% [5][6] Automotive Industry - The "anti-involution" trend may shift the automotive industry from price-cutting to technology upgrades and cost reductions. Recommended stocks include XPeng Motors for strong tech capabilities and Geely for solid fundamentals and undervaluation [8] Electric Power Equipment - In June 2025, inverter exports remained stable at $920 million, while component and battery exports decreased by 24% year-on-year. Transformer exports increased by 48% year-on-year [9] Banking Sector - Hangzhou Bank reported a 3.9% year-on-year increase in revenue to 20.09 billion yuan and a 16.7% increase in net profit to 11.66 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating strong fundamental resilience [10] Petrochemical Industry - New Fengming plans to invest in high-end bio-based fibers, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 reflecting a decrease of 28% and 22% respectively. The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its leading position in polyester [11] Construction Industry - China Power Construction is expected to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an estimated annual contract value of 21.8-29.1 billion yuan, significantly enhancing the company's order book [12] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home is positioned as a leading global home appliance brand, with a positive outlook for air conditioning sales and a projected net profit of 21.5 billion yuan for 2025 [13]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced an overall increase this week, with the ChiNext Index showing the highest gain of 3.17%, while the Shanghai 50 Index had the smallest increase of 0.28%. The sectors of communication, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles performed relatively well, with increases of 7.6%, 4.0%, and 3.3% respectively, while utilities, real estate, and media sectors saw declines of 1.4%, 2.2%, and 2.2% respectively [1][11][14]. Group 2 - Economic data has shown positive performance recently, with the GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 reaching 5.2% year-on-year, and a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year. The GDP growth rate for the second half only needs to reach 4.7% to meet the annual target of 5% [2][19]. - The demand side remains stable while the investment side shows a slowdown, indicating an improvement in the supply-demand relationship. Retail sales and exports have both seen an upward trend [2][19]. - Financial data for June showed strong performance, and the willingness of enterprises to expand internally, along with the pace of incremental fiscal policy, will be key factors affecting social financing growth [2][20]. Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policies are being implemented across various industries to alleviate corporate profit pressures. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance has issued guidelines to encourage long-term investments from insurance funds [30][31]. - The internal policy space remains available for further action, especially in response to external uncertainties. The domestic economy has shown signs of improvement, making it feasible to achieve the annual economic goals [31][32]. Group 4 - The market is expected to focus on the performance of listed companies' interim reports, the easing of external uncertainties, and the marginal loosening of overseas liquidity in August [4][39]. - The configuration direction emphasizes three main lines: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks. In the domestic consumption sector, attention is drawn to subsidy-related and offline service consumption [4][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry [5] Core Insights - The Guangxi Petrochemical integrated refining and chemical upgrade project has been fully completed, marking a significant step in the transition towards high-end chemical materials in the region [1][12] - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has made substantial progress in its new materials sector, establishing new research institutes and achieving significant R&D breakthroughs in 2024 [2][14] - The production of new materials by CNPC has seen a remarkable increase, with a 49.3% year-on-year growth in 2024, reaching a total output of 2.045 million tons [2][15] - CNPC is actively developing five major new materials bases, with significant investments aimed at enhancing production capacity and technological innovation [3][17] Summary by Sections Guangxi Petrochemical Project - The Guangxi Petrochemical project has a total investment of 30.5 billion yuan and includes the construction of a 1.2 million tons/year ethylene cracking unit among other facilities [1][12] - The project aims to transform Guangxi's petrochemical industry from a fuel-based model to one focused on chemical products and organic materials, addressing market demands along the new western land-sea corridor [1][12] New Materials Development - Since 2021, CNPC has elevated its new materials business to a core operational level, establishing dedicated research institutes in Shanghai and Japan [2][14] - Key R&D achievements in 2024 include breakthroughs in metallocene polyethylene catalysts and nylon 66 synthesis [2][15] Production Capacity and Market Position - In 2024, CNPC's new materials production reached 2.045 million tons, with significant contributions from products like ABS, nitrile rubber, and others [2][15] - CNPC holds the leading position in several product categories, including paraffin wax and low-sulfur petroleum coke, with domestic market shares of over 85% and 53% respectively [2][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for major oil companies and oil service sectors, recommending attention to CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC, as well as their respective engineering subsidiaries [4]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The long-term logic remains solid, with expectations for supply and demand in natural rubber to recover [2] - Recent policy guidance indicates a positive shift in pig prices, with a long-term view suggesting the industry may enter a prolonged profit upcycle [4][70] - The agricultural sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with animal health and aquaculture sectors showing positive trends, while feed and poultry sectors face challenges [14][18] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector outperformed the market, with the agricultural index down 0.14% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% [14] - Key sub-sectors showed varied performance, with animal health up 5.13% and feed down 0.71% [14][18] 2. Key Data Tracking - Pig prices decreased to 14.27 yuan/kg, down 3.65% week-on-week, while chicken prices increased to 6.4 yuan/kg, up 2.56% [22][34] - Natural rubber prices rose to 14,840 yuan/ton, up 3.16% week-on-week, driven by tight supply and recovering demand from the tire industry [61] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on pig farming sector with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [4][70] - Attention to post-cycle sectors, particularly in feed and animal health, with companies like Haida Group and Reap Bio [4][70] - In the planting chain, investment opportunities are highlighted for companies such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4][70] - The pet food sector is also recommended due to ongoing growth and price increases, with companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4][70]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company is actively investing in strategic emerging industries while consolidating its traditional business, specifically by investing 100 million RMB in Lif Biotechnology, aiming to enter the high-end bio-based fiber sector [2][3]. - Lif Biotechnology is recognized as a leader in the domestic FDCA (Furan-2,5-dicarboxylic acid) industry, with plans to establish the world's first 10,000-ton FDCA production line by 2025, which is expected to significantly reduce the price of FDCA in the coming years [3]. - The downstream applications of FDCA are extensive, with PEF (polyethylene furanoate) showing superior performance compared to PET (polyethylene terephthalate) in various properties, making it suitable for a wide range of industries including packaging, electronics, automotive, and construction [4]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, with expected net profits of 1.466 billion RMB (down 28%), 1.882 billion RMB (down 22%), and 2.207 billion RMB for 2027, translating to EPS of 0.96, 1.23, and 1.45 RMB respectively [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the polyester market, with increasing market share as polyester production capacity expands [4].

Group 1: Retail Data Overview - In June 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.1% and rebounding from a previous decline of 0.9%[2] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.5%, exceeding the forecast of 0.3% and improving from a revised previous value of -0.2%[2] - Key sectors showing strong performance included grocery stores (+1.8%), automobiles (+1.2%), building materials (+0.9%), and clothing (+0.9%)[11] Group 2: Economic Implications - Despite the positive retail data, the resilience of the U.S. economy is questioned due to potential tariff impacts and inflation adjustments[4] - The actual retail sales growth, adjusted for inflation (CPI increase of 0.3%), was only 0.3% in June, indicating limited consumer strength[4][9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach, with a 97.4% probability of no rate cut in July and a likelihood of two rate cuts in the second half of 2025[5][15]