分析师：董文欣 2025 年 5 月 1 日 公司研究 经营稳中有进，资产质量稳健 ——工商银行（601398.SH）2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：7.01 元 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 3,564.06 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 24,984.08 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 4.98/7.34 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 13.26% | 股价相对走势 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 4.74 | 4.00 | 34.16 | | 绝对 | 1.74 | 2.79 | 38.77 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 要点 事件： 工商银行发布 2025 年一季度报告，报告期内实现营业收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for CITIC Bank (601998.SH) [1] Core Views - CITIC Bank's Q1 2025 report shows a revenue of 51.77 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [3][4] - The bank's annualized weighted average return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 is 11.42%, down 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue, PPOP, and net profit growth rates for Q1 2025 are -3.7%, -3.9%, and 1.7% respectively, showing a decline compared to 2024 [4] - Net interest income and non-interest income growth rates are 2.1% and -14.4% respectively, with significant declines from 2024 [4] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 1.16%, with a provision coverage ratio of 207.1% [9][10] - The bank's NPL balance is 67.85 billion, an increase of 1.36 billion from the beginning of the year [9] Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the core tier 1 capital ratio, tier 1 capital ratio, and total capital ratio are 9.45%, 10.9%, and 12.9% respectively, all showing a decline from the end of the previous year [10][30] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.25, 1.29, and 1.33 respectively, with current stock price corresponding to PB valuations of 0.54, 0.51, and 0.47 times [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299.HK) [1] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, AIA Group achieved a new business value of USD 1.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% (fixed exchange rate) and 12.8% (actual exchange rate) [5][11] - The new business value margin reached 57.5%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product structure optimization [5][11] - Annualized new premiums amounted to USD 2.62 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [5][11] - Total weighted premium income was USD 12.68 billion, up 13.0% year-on-year [5][11] Market Performance - In the mainland China market, new business value grew by 8% year-on-year, with a new business value margin exceeding 50% [6] - The Hong Kong market saw a 16% year-on-year increase in new business value, benefiting from balanced growth in local and MCV businesses [6] - Southeast Asia markets, particularly Thailand and Singapore, experienced rapid growth in new business value, driven by regulatory changes and strategic partnerships [7] Share Buyback Plan - AIA Group announced a new USD 1.6 billion share buyback plan, expected to be completed within three months [8] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts AIA Group's net profit for 2025-2027 to be USD 8.13 billion, USD 8.84 billion, and USD 9.75 billion respectively [11][12] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are 9.9, 9.1, and 8.2 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [12]

2025 年 5 月 1 日 公司研究 海外收入略降导致公司 24 年收入略降，25 年将进入恢复性增长阶段 ——木林森（002745.SZ）跟踪报告之四 要点 事件： 公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司实现营业收入 169.10 亿元，同比下降 3.57%，公司实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 3.74 亿元，同比下降 13.06%。 公司发布 2025 年一季报，2025 年 Q1 公司实现营业收入 38.86 亿元，同比下降 2.82%，公司实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 1.43 亿元，同比下降 21.30%。 点评： 2024 年公司业绩略有下降，主要系海外收入略降。2024 年，全球 LED 照明市 场受政治经济局势波动及地缘政治紧张因素影响，整体增长节奏有所调整。公司 旗下主要有朗德万斯和木林森两个品牌，其中朗德万斯前身是欧司朗光源及通用 照明事业部，其销售体系主要在海外，2024 年朗德万斯收入 96.47 亿元，相比 于 2023 年 106.06 亿元收入，下降幅度为 9.04%，是公司 2024 年收入下降的 主要原因；木林森品牌销售体系位于国内，2024 年收入 67.68 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has a solid leading position in the market, with significant credit advantages due to reduced financing costs and improved debt structure [2][3]. - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, the company showed a positive growth trend in the first quarter of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of CNY 311.67 billion, a decrease of 10.14% year-on-year, with real estate sales at CNY 287.35 billion, down 10.90% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was CNY 5.00 billion, a significant decline of 58.56% [1]. - For the first quarter of 2025, total revenue was CNY 54.27 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.09%, while net profit was CNY 1.95 billion, down 12.27% [1]. Sales and Market Position - The company maintained its position as the industry leader with a signed area of 17.97 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of 24.7%, and a signed amount of CNY 323.0 billion, down 23.5% [2]. - The market share in 38 core cities reached 7.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2023, with 14 cities achieving over 10% market share [2]. Financing and Debt Structure - By the end of 2024, the company's direct financing balance was CNY 69.9 billion, accounting for 20.03% of interest-bearing liabilities, an increase of 3.72 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The long-term debt (maturing in over three years) amounted to CNY 138.1 billion, with a significant increase in proportion to total debt [3]. - The average cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased to 2.92%, marking a historical low [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to CNY 5.50 billion and CNY 5.87 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at CNY 6.11 billion [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18.2, 17.1, and 16.4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 164.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 54.4 billion, a decrease of 2.9% [4] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 9.09%, down 0.77 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Non-interest income accounted for 34.7% of total revenue, an increase of 5.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate improved by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year, with non-interest income contributing positively [5] - The year-on-year growth rates for net interest income and non-interest income were -4.4% and 18.9%, respectively [5] - The main contributors to revenue growth were scale expansion and non-interest income, contributing 13.8 and 14.6 percentage points to performance growth [5] Asset and Loan Growth - As of the end of Q1 2025, interest-earning assets and loans grew by 7.3% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The loan-to-interest-earning asset ratio increased by 1.1 percentage points to 65% [6] - The company focused on key areas for credit support, with significant growth in loans for technology finance, small and micro enterprises, and green credit [6] Liability and Deposit Growth - Interest-bearing liabilities and deposits grew by 6.9% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively [7] - The proportion of deposits in interest-bearing liabilities increased by 1.9 percentage points to 79.9% [7] Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.29%, down 11 basis points from 2024, but the decline was less than the previous year [8] - The yield on interest-earning assets decreased to 2.96%, primarily due to LPR adjustments and the rolling repricing of existing loans [8] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income grew by 18.9% year-on-year, with net fee and commission income increasing by 2.1% to 25.65 billion [9] - The significant growth in foreign exchange net income and other business income contributed to the overall increase in non-interest income [9] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.25% as of the end of Q1 2025 [10] - The provision coverage ratio was 198%, indicating a reasonable and sufficient risk buffer [10] Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio decreased to 17.98% as of the end of Q1 2025, with core tier 1 capital ratio at 11.82% [10] - The company is expected to enhance its capital base following a planned 165 billion capital increase [10] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 0.76, 0.79, and 0.81 yuan, respectively [11] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.68, 0.63, and 0.59 for the respective years [11]

2025 年 5 月 1 日 燃料电池系统销量阶段性承压，持续重视技术研发。 公司研究 在行业整体销量不及预期叠加公司在资金周转压力下采取审慎拓展的市场策略 因素影响下，2024 年公司燃料电池系统销量同比减少 60.95%至 742 套，营业 收入同比减少 61.94%至 2.73 亿元，毛利率则在燃料电池系统价格下降和成本 降幅趋缓的背景下同比减少 21.19 个 pct 至 11.70%。2024 年公司零部件收入 同比增长 14.60%至 0.35 亿元，毛利率同比增长 4.06 个 pct 至 16.67%，技术 开发及服务营业收入同比增长 15.34%至 0.25 亿元，毛利率同比增长 15.51 个 pct 至 21.33%。经营承压背景下公司持续重视技术研发，2024 年公司研发投入 同比减少 18.37%至 1.39 亿元，占营业收入的比例提升 16.68 个 pct 至 37.99%。 燃料电池系统销量阶段性承压，旭阳集团有望助力公司迎来新发展 2025Q1 公司营业收入和毛利率环比均有一定程度下滑，我们认为主要系行业季 节性波动带来的交付和收入确认因素影响。根据中汽协公布的数据，燃料电池 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 15.098 billion yuan, down 55.20% year-on-year, and a net loss of 4.750 billion yuan, a decrease of 289.25% [1][5]. - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company is expected to achieve a turnaround due to continuous cost reductions and potential stabilization in industry prices [4]. - The company has made substantial advancements in its emerging businesses, including silane gas and perovskite technology, which are anticipated to contribute to future growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a silicon production and shipment volume of 269,200 tons and 281,900 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 32% and 45% [2]. - The average selling price of the company's silicon products was approximately 34.2 yuan/kg, while revenue from polysilicon sales was 8.673 billion yuan, down 50.25% year-on-year [2]. - The cash manufacturing cost of silicon decreased to 33.52 yuan/kg in 2024, a 10% reduction from Q4 2023, with further reductions expected in Q1 2025 [2]. Emerging Business Development - The company invested 1.102 billion yuan in R&D in 2024, with a research expense ratio of approximately 7.3% [4]. - The annual production capacity of electronic-grade silane gas reached 600,000 tons, capturing about 25% of the domestic market [4]. - The company’s perovskite technology is projected to achieve a module efficiency of 27% by the end of 2025 [4]. Carbon Footprint and Environmental Initiatives - The company’s silicon products have achieved a carbon footprint of 14.441 kg CO2 e/kg, a 42% reduction from the previous year, setting a new industry record [3]. - The company is actively addressing carbon emissions in response to new export product requirements set by the Ministry of Commerce [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of -405 million yuan, 842 million yuan, and 1.980 billion yuan, respectively [4][5]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages in silicon products and the potential for new growth from its investments in emerging technologies [4].

2025 年 5 月 1 日 总量研究 关税滞胀效应显现，美国经济增速转负 ——2025 年一季度美国经济数据点评 | | 要点 | | --- | --- | | 作者 | | | | 事件： | | 分析师：高瑞东 | 2025 年 4 月 30 日，美国经济分析局公布 2025 年一季度 GDP 数据初值： | | 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 | 【1】一季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值-0.3%，预期+0.3%，前值+2.4%； | | gaoruidong@ebscn.com | 【2】一季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.8%，预期+1.2%，前值+4.0%； | | 联系人：周欣平 | | | 010-57378026 | 【3】一季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值+3.5%，预期+3.5%，前值+2.6%。 | | zhouxinping@ebscn.com | | | 相关研报 | 核心观点： | | 投资增速放缓，美国经济边际降温——2024 | | | 年四季度美国经济数据点评（2025-01- | 美国一季度 GDP 环比增速转负，消费环比增速 ...