2025 年 5 月 1 日 总量研究 关税滞胀效应显现，美国经济增速转负 ——2025 年一季度美国经济数据点评 | | 要点 | | --- | --- | | 作者 | | | | 事件： | | 分析师：高瑞东 | 2025 年 4 月 30 日，美国经济分析局公布 2025 年一季度 GDP 数据初值： | | 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 | 【1】一季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值-0.3%，预期+0.3%，前值+2.4%； | | gaoruidong@ebscn.com | 【2】一季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.8%，预期+1.2%，前值+4.0%； | | 联系人：周欣平 | | | 010-57378026 | 【3】一季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值+3.5%，预期+3.5%，前值+2.6%。 | | zhouxinping@ebscn.com | | | 相关研报 | 核心观点： | | 投资增速放缓，美国经济边际降温——2024 | | | 年四季度美国经济数据点评（2025-01- | 美国一季度 GDP 环比增速转负，消费环比增速 ...

2025 年 5 月 1 日 总量研究 债券持仓规模减少，久期杠杆双回落 ——主动型债券基金 25Q1 季报分析 要点 1、 25Q1 主动型债券基金市场总览 市场规模：截至 2025 年一季度末，全市场公募开放式债券型基金共计 3808 只， 较 2024 年四季度末环比增加 41 只/1.1%；市场规模合计 10.07 万亿元，环比减 少 0.48 万亿元/4.6%；基金份额合计 9.03 万亿份，净赎回 4379.80 亿份/4.6%。 纯债基金、被动指数债基表现为净赎回，市场规模收缩；混合债基、可转债基金、 增强指数债基表现为净申购，市场规模放量。 业绩表现：截至 2025 年一季度末，短期纯债基金、中长期纯债基金、混合一级 债基和混合二级债基的单季度加权平均回报率分别为 0.14%、-0.12%、0.20% 和 0.65%，较上季度末环比均有所下滑。杠杆率和久期：短期纯债基金、中长 期纯债基金、混合一级债基和混合二级债基的单季度加权平均杠杆率分别为 111.81%、121.73%、112.93%和 114.32%；重仓债券加权平均久期分别为 0.96 年、2.84 年、3.15 年和 2.76 年， ...

2025 年 5 月 1 日 公司研究 特种线缆龙头，机器人、核聚变、液冷超充线缆技术领先 ——鑫宏业（301310.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 新能源车与工业线缆收入快速增长，毛利率承压。公司 24 年新能源汽车线缆收 入为 14.86 亿元，同比增长 37.71%，毛利率为 13.33%，较上年下降 2.38pcts。 公司光伏线缆收入为 7.31 亿元，同比增长 16.88%，毛利率为 4.4%，较上年下 降 3.01pcts。公司工业线缆收入为 3.14 亿元，同比增长 52.88%，毛利率为 10.39%，较上年下降 5.94pcts。 核电线缆材料助力可控核聚变装备国产化替代，有望贡献业绩增量。公司已参与 全球最大人造太阳国际热核聚变实验堆（ITER）项目，主要交付 PIC-电力、控 制和仪表电缆，深度参与"华龙一号"等三代/四代核电机组建设，并布局可控 核聚技术。超导材料加工需专用熔铸与拉伸设备，耐辐射材料改性、超导导体绞 合等核心工艺依赖长期试错与数据积累，研发壁垒较高。 灵巧手柔性线缆突破头部客户。公司开发出人形机器人超柔性线缆系列产品，大 幅超越普通工业机器人线 ...

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate" due to increased industry competition and continuous pressure on diamond wire prices [3]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with operating income of 2.271 billion yuan, down 49.66% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 146 million yuan, down 90.84% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating income of 423 million yuan, a decrease of 50.61% year-on-year, but managed to turn a profit with a net profit of 26 million yuan, down 86.46% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company plans to invest 230 million yuan in a new tungsten wire mother line project to ensure long-term development, which will increase monthly production capacity to 7 million kilometers [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s diamond wire production was 125 million kilometers, a 15.60% decrease from the previous year, and sales volume was 122 million kilometers, down 5.37% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price of diamond wire (after tax) fell by 48.78% to 17.67 yuan per kilometer, leading to a 51.53% decrease in revenue to 2.152 billion yuan, with a gross margin drop of 34.71 percentage points to 17.04% [2]. - For 2025-2027, the forecasted net profits are 213 million yuan, 245 million yuan, and 349 million yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 62% and 61% for 2025 and 2026 [3][4]. Research and Development - The company maintained a stable R&D investment ratio, with 60 million yuan allocated in 2024, accounting for 2.64% of operating income [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company has maintained positive operating cash flow since Q3 2023, with cash and cash equivalents of 706 million yuan at the end of Q1 2025 and no debt, indicating a strong financial position [2].

外销增速亮眼，净利率稳中有升 ——美的集团（000333.SZ）2025 年一季报业绩点评 买入（维持） 当前价/目标价：73.62/86.00 元 作者 2025 年 5 月 1 日 公司研究 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 76.64 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 5642.17 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 58.90/83.67 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 30.21% | 股价相对走势 -11% -2% 6% 14% 23% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 美的集团 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 0.66 | 2.60 | 5.15 | | 绝对 | -2.35 | 1.95 | 8.23 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 相关研报 要点 分析师：洪吉然 执业证书编号：S0930521070002 021- 52523793 hongjiran@ebscn.com 联系人：周方正 021- 52523855 zhou ...

公司研究 产品价格竞争激烈导致 24 年业绩下滑，公司汽车电子收入占比持续提升 ——华润微（688396.SH）跟踪报告之八 要点 2025 年 5 月 1 日 事件： 公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司实现营业收入 101.19 亿元，同比增长 2.20%，公司实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 7.62 亿元，同比下降 48.46%。 公司发布 2025 年一季报，2025 年 Q1 公司实现营业收入 23.55 亿元，同比增长 11.29%，公司实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 0.83 亿元，同比增长 150.68%。 点评： 公司 2024 年净利润下降的主要原因如下：虽然下游需求有所回暖，但由于产能 释放和行业去库存的叠加效应，产品价格竞争较为激烈，同时公司持续加大研发 投入，重大项目分别处于爬坡上量和建设期阶段，对公司利润指标造成了一定影 响。 2024 年，公司产品与方案板块下游终端应用主要围绕四大领域，其中泛新能源 领域（车类及新能源）收入占比 41%，消费电子领域收入占比 35%，工业设备 收入占比 15%，通信设备收入占比 9%。 公司在汽车电子领域进行了广泛布局，长期成长动力充足。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable long-term outlook despite current challenges [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 581 million yuan, a significant decline of 39.72% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 108 million yuan, down 28.85% [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 192 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth of 94.09% year-on-year, although it reported a net loss of 20 million yuan [1]. - The decline in 2024 performance is primarily attributed to the completion phase of real estate projects, leading to reduced revenue from property deliveries [2]. - The company is actively transforming its business, focusing on semiconductor equipment, with significant R&D investments leading to rapid product iterations and new customer orders [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 2024 revenue decreased to 581 million yuan from 898 million yuan in 2022, with a forecasted recovery to 944 million yuan in 2025 [4]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 156 million yuan, down 23.53% from previous estimates, with further growth expected in subsequent years [3][4]. Business Transformation - The company is shifting focus from real estate to semiconductor equipment, with 2024 orders for integrated circuit equipment reaching approximately 240 million yuan [3]. - The successful delivery of new equipment in Q1 2025 marks an improvement in service capabilities for new product processes [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected revenues and net profits for 2025 to 2027, with a gradual recovery anticipated [4][10]. - Key valuation ratios such as P/E and P/B are presented, indicating a P/E of 86 for 2025, suggesting a potential for value appreciation as the company transitions [4][11].

2025 年 5 月 1 日 公司研究 25Q1 业绩短期承压，看好公司长期发展 ——迈瑞医疗（300760.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：迈瑞医疗发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 年公司实现营业收入 367.26 亿元，同比增长 5.14%；归母净利润 116.68 亿元，同比增长 0.74%；扣 非归母净利润 114.42 亿元，同比增长 0.07%。2025 年一季度实现营收 82.37 亿元，同比下滑 12.12%；归母净利润 26.29 亿元，同比下滑 16.81%；扣非归 母净利润 25.31 亿元，同比下滑 16.68%。 点评： 24 年业绩微增，25Q1 业绩短期承压：2024 年公司从业务结构来看，体外诊断 业务收入 137.65 亿元，同比增长 10.82%，首次超越生命信息与支持业务，成 为第一大业务板块；生命信息与支持业务收入 135.57 亿元，同比下降 11.11%； 医学影像业务收入 74.98 亿元，同比增长 6.60%。25Q1 业绩承压，主要原因包 括海外业务去年同期基数较高，以及国内业务因从招投标到确认收入的时间拉长 ...

2025 年 5 月 1 日 公司研究 挖机相关业务有望受益于国内工程机械行业景气度复苏 2024 年公司挖掘机泵阀产品份额实现持续提升。挖掘机市场在经历初始的 下滑后，逐渐恢复增长，特别是国内市场显示出较强的增长动力，而出口市场也 在年末实现正增长，国内工程机械市场周期拐点确立。随着未来国内工程机械行 业景气度持续复苏，公司作为工程机械零部件龙头企业有望深度受益。 "多元化"布局持续推进，非挖业务持续突破 公司持续推进"多元化"布局。在非工程机械领域，公司还开发了基于音圈 电机的工业比例伺服阀，以 4ms 行业最快响应速度。同时，公司还开展了风电 轴承测试、汽车行业 CDC 阀测试、斗轮挖掘机液压系统、布缆机、石油行业、 液压机械臂、船用风帆液压系统等项目的研发，高效推进下游领域的多元化进程。 线性驱动器项目开始量产，有望打造公司新增长极 业绩稳步增长，线性驱动器项目有望打造新增长极 ——恒立液压（601100.SH）2024 年报、2025 年一季报点评 要点 业绩稳步增长，25Q1 扣非归母净利润大幅增长 恒立液压 2024 年实现营业收入 93.9 亿元，同比增长 4.5%；归母净利润 25.1 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [3][5][12]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance was impacted by declining coal prices, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 15.4% and a net profit decline of 20.0% [1]. - Despite the challenges in the coal sector, the company is expected to maintain stable operations and has plans for a mid-term cash dividend of at least 30% of net profit [3]. - The company’s non-coal business showed resilience, with improved profitability in products like polyethylene and methanol, despite a slight decline in overall revenue [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, down 15.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.98 billion yuan, down 20.0% year-on-year [1]. - Coal production slightly increased by 1.9% to 33.35 million tons, while coal prices fell significantly, affecting overall profitability [1]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 492 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit margin decline [1]. Non-Coal Business - The non-coal business generated revenue of 7.142 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year, but with a gross profit of 2.01 billion yuan, reflecting a smaller decline of 6.6% [2]. - The profitability of polyethylene and methanol improved, with methanol turning profitable with a gross profit of 380 yuan per ton [2]. Dividend and Shareholder Confidence - The company plans to continue its mid-term cash dividend policy, with a minimum payout ratio of 30% based on net profit [3]. - The controlling shareholder, China Coal, plans to increase its stake in the company, demonstrating confidence in its future performance [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 17.3 billion yuan for 2025, with corresponding EPS of 1.31 yuan [3]. - The company is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of less than 1, indicating it is undervalued relative to its assets [3].