Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in June 2025, with a total of 4.23 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, which is below the market expectation of 5.56% [2] - The report emphasizes the promising future of COFs (Covalent Organic Frameworks) materials in various fields such as energy storage and environmental management, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Baolidi and Yaoke for their advancements in COFs commercialization [3] - The report suggests increasing allocation to the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector, particularly in chemical pharmaceuticals and innovative drugs, highlighting companies like Sanofi and BeiGene for their potential growth [3] Retail Sector Analysis - In June 2025, the growth rate of essential goods decreased, while the jewelry sector faced demand pressure due to high gold prices, leading to a decline in growth rates [2] - The report notes that the pre-promotion period for sales has led to an earlier release of consumer demand, impacting the overall growth figures [2] COFs Industry Insights - COFs are identified as high-performance crystalline porous polymer materials with adjustable pore structures, showing significant application potential in energy and environmental sectors [3] - The report mentions a successful scale-up of COFs production by Yaoke in 2024, marking a milestone in the commercialization of these materials [3] Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The report recommends increasing investment in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector, particularly in traditional and innovative drug companies, citing the ongoing transformation and innovation within the industry [3] - Specific companies are highlighted for their stable growth and potential for stock price catalysts, including Sanofi, United Laboratories, and others [3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points compared to May [1] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 6.1% year-on-year in June, but the growth rate decreased by 15.7 percentage points compared to May [3] - The retail sales of household appliances grew by 32.4% year-on-year in June, although the growth rate fell by 20.6 percentage points from May [4] - The overall retail sales growth in June was impacted by a high base from the previous year and the elongation of the promotional cycle, leading to a release of consumer demand in advance [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Social Consumer Goods Retail - The total retail sales for June 2025 were 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [1] - The retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 24.55 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1] Consumer Price Index (CPI) - The CPI in June 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, improving from a -0.1% in May [1] Retail Categories Performance - Grocery and food retail sales grew by 8.7% year-on-year in June, while beverage sales declined by 4.4% [1] - Textile and clothing retail sales increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cosmetics sales fell by 2.3% [2] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 6.1% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased significantly [3] - Household appliances saw a substantial growth of 32.4% year-on-year, despite a decline in growth rate [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the COFs industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][48]. Core Insights - COFs (Covalent Organic Frameworks) are emerging as a new class of porous crystalline materials with precise tunable pore structures and surface functionalities, showing vast application potential in energy storage, environmental remediation, and biomedicine [4][44]. - The demand for COFs materials is projected to grow significantly, with the market for solid-state battery COFs expected to increase from $0.05 billion in 2024 to $0.61 billion by 2031, reflecting a CAGR of 35% [3][42]. Summary by Sections 1. COFs Structural Design and Synthesis Innovations - COFs are crystalline porous polymers formed by covalently linking organic molecules, characterized by ordered nanopores, high surface area, and excellent thermal stability [1][13]. - The development of COFs represents a trend from inorganic to organic porous materials, with advancements in synthesis methods such as solvent thermal and ionic thermal methods [1][14]. 2. Accelerated Cross-Field Applications of COFs - COFs are driving technological revolutions across various sectors due to their unique designable crystal structures and superior physicochemical properties [2][33]. - In the energy sector, COFs enhance battery energy conversion efficiency and serve as effective electrode materials [2][34]. - COFs also provide innovative solutions for environmental remediation, such as selective adsorption for water treatment and air purification [2][36]. - In biomedicine, COFs enable targeted drug delivery and detection of heavy metal ions with high sensitivity [2][38]. 3. Industrialization Breakthroughs in COFs - The global demand for COFs is rapidly increasing, with companies like Baolidi leading the market by achieving solvent-free synthesis and scaling production to 200 tons annually [3][43]. - Baolidi's joint venture, YaoKe New Materials, has successfully implemented green synthesis technology, facilitating the transition from laboratory to large-scale production [3][42]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the promising future of COFs materials, particularly highlighting Baolidi's collaboration with leading academic figures to advance COFs commercialization [4][44]. - The ongoing construction of a 200-ton annual production line for COFs materials is underway, with project approvals completed [4][43].

Macro Analysis - The inflation data in the US showed a rebound in June, driven by rising oil prices and the increasing impact of tariffs on goods inflation, with expectations that the CPI year-on-year high may exceed 3% in the second half of the year [2] Bond Market - In the first half of 2025, all adjusted convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded, with a decrease in the number of downgrades compared to the previous year; the majority of these bonds were rated AA- or below, with a focus on private enterprises in the basic chemical and computer industries [3] Industry Research Medical Industry - The disposable glove industry is expected to see a price turning point in the third quarter, with a focus on the overseas capacity release of leading domestic companies; as demand grows and costs are controlled, domestic companies are likely to gain global market share [4] Construction and Engineering - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing rapid development, with specific materials like silicon-carbon anodes and high-nickel cathodes likely to benefit; recommended companies include China National Materials, Puyang Refractories, and China Communications Construction [5] Company Research High-end Manufacturing - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 105-120 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a significant improvement; the increase is attributed to higher product deliveries and a favorable industry outlook [6] Electronics - The company plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, further solidifying its position in the panel industry; profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards due to high depreciation costs, but the outlook remains positive due to recovering market conditions [7] Overseas TMT - Qualcomm is positioned as a leader in wireless communication chips, with expectations to maintain its market share in high-end smartphone SoCs and expand in PC and autonomous driving SoCs; the company is also exploring AI-related markets [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a potential price turning point in the third quarter, driven by tariff increases on imports from Malaysia and China, which may lead to a recovery in the prices of disposable medical-grade nitrile gloves [1][2]. - The market structure is becoming increasingly stratified, with smaller manufacturers gradually exiting the industry due to competitive pressures and price declines, while leading domestic companies are expanding their production capacity [3]. - Domestic leaders like Yingke Medical are expected to release overseas production capacity by the end of the year, which is anticipated to enhance their market position and profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on disposable nitrile gloves, with a significant increase to 50% on certain Chinese products set to take effect in January 2025, potentially leading to price increases in the domestic market [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the production capacity of disposable medical-grade nitrile gloves in China has been rapidly expanding, with Yingke Medical's annual capacity reaching 87 billion pieces by the end of 2024 [3]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by intense competition in non-U.S. markets, leading to price pressures and the exit of some smaller players from the market [3]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that as domestic leaders release overseas production capacity and with natural growth in end-user demand, the prices of disposable gloves are expected to return to reasonable levels, allowing domestic companies to capture a larger share of the global market [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control, supply chain integration, and R&D capabilities for domestic companies to enhance their competitive edge [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Solid-state batteries drive the demand for upstream materials related to silicon-carbon anodes and high-nickel cathodes. They represent the ultimate direction of "0-1" new technology progress in lithium batteries, and the market trend is often catalyzed by industrial technology advancement events. The market is expected to reach a scale of over RMB 100 billion by 2030, with the solid-state battery industry scale potentially reaching RMB 180 billion [4][11]. - As of Thursday (July 10, 2025), the total inventory of the glass industry was 57.34 million weight boxes, a month-on-month decrease of 1.66%; the inventory days were about 28.76 days, a month-on-month decrease of 0.65 days. The production was 12.78 million weight boxes, and the production and sales rate was 107.6%. The inventory has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks, exceeding expectations. It is predicted that glass prices are expected to rise seasonally when the peak season arrives in mid-to-late September, and the stock prices of glass leaders are also expected to rise [4]. - Current investment suggestions include focusing on Honglu Steel Structure, Sinoma Science & Technology, Punan Co., Ltd., Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China National Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd., China State Construction Engineering Corporation, Shanghai Harbor, and Keda Industrial Group [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Special Topic: The Prosperous Development of Solid-state Batteries, and Related Targets of Silicon-carbon Anodes and High-nickel Cathode Materials May Benefit - **Solid-state battery industry chain**: Solid-state batteries are the ultimate direction of new technology progress in lithium batteries. From 2026 - 2028 is the critical stage for the mass production of all-solid-state batteries with different technical routes, among which the sulfide route is expected to be mass-produced first in 2026. After 2029, the lithium battery industry will enter the structural adjustment stage of maturity. It is predicted that the market space of all-solid-state batteries will reach over RMB 100 billion in 2030, and the industrial scale of solid-state batteries is expected to reach RMB 180 billion [4][11]. - **Silicon-carbon anode**: Silicon-carbon composites are breaking through the physical limit of traditional graphite anodes. To solve the problems of silicon anode materials such as capacity attenuation and volume expansion during charge and discharge, researchers use the silicon-carbon composite method. Beijing Lier invested in Lianchuang Lithium Energy to layout the silicon-carbon anode field. Lianchuang Lithium Energy is expected to start production by the end of this year and achieve significant revenue and profit scale in 2026 [12][20]. - **High-nickel cathode**: With the development of the solid-state battery industry, the application of high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel materials is being accelerated, and the demand for high-nickel ternary materials will continue to grow. Many domestic material enterprises are actively deploying high-nickel materials, and some leading manufacturers have achieved shipments of high-nickel ternary products to solid-state battery enterprises. Some material manufacturers are also increasing nickel production capacity and targeting Indonesia [21]. - **Punan Co., Ltd.**: The company's efficient precipitant products have been recognized by many wet metallurgy customers and achieved batch supply. The increasing demand for high-nickel ternary cathode materials in solid-state batteries is expected to drive the demand for active magnesium oxide, a precipitant used in upstream wet nickel extraction, and the company's related business may benefit [23]. 3.2. Earnings Forecast and Valuation of Main Covered Companies No specific content provided in the text, only the table title is mentioned. 3.3. Weekly Market Review - **Building and building materials industry**: The text provides the weekly and year-to-date rise and fall rankings of the building and building materials industries, as well as the weekly market review of infrastructure public REITs, including closing prices, 52 - week highs and lows, and various rise and fall data [37][38][39]. 3.4. Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real estate data**: It includes cumulative year-on-year data of real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas, land transaction data, real estate transaction data, social financing data, infrastructure investment growth rate, and new contract signing situations of eight major construction central enterprises [42][51][60]. - **Special bond issuance**: It shows the monthly and cumulative issuance amounts of new special bonds and replacement special bonds [89]. 3.5. High-frequency Data Tracking - **Cement data**: It includes the national PO42.5 cement average price, East China regional cement price trend, cement coal price difference index, cement capacity utilization rate, and cement production monthly year-on-year growth rate [100][104][107]. - **Float glass data**: It includes glass spot price, glass futures price, glass inventory, and glass daily melting volume [106][109][114]. - **Photovoltaic glass data**: It includes 2mm photovoltaic glass price, photovoltaic glass inventory, and soda ash price [113][115][118]. - **Glass fiber data**: It includes the prices of various types of glass fiber yarns and glass fiber inventory [120][122][133]. - **Carbon fiber data**: It includes carbon fiber average price, carbon fiber raw silk price, carbon fiber inventory, carbon fiber production, carbon fiber start - up rate, and carbon fiber gross profit margin [128][130][142]. - **Magnesia and alumina prices**: It includes the ex - factory tax - included price of large crystalline fused magnesia and alumina price [144][145][147]. - **Upstream raw material prices**: It includes the prices of asphalt, waste paper, PVC, and HDPE [150][152][154]. - **Physical work volume data**: It includes high - machine rental rate, excavator working hours, and asphalt average start - up rate [156][157][163].

Investment Rating - The report gives Qualcomm an "Overweight" rating for the first time [5][15]. Core Views - Qualcomm is a global leader in wireless communication technology, with mobile chips as its core business. The company is expected to maintain its leading position in high-end smartphone SoC and smart cockpit SoC markets, while also expanding its presence in AI smart glasses and data center CPU businesses, which may become a second growth curve in the long term [5][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Qualcomm was founded in 1985 and went public in 1991. The company focuses on mobile, IoT, and automotive sectors, with mobile business accounting for 63.81% of total revenue in FY2024, generating $24.863 billion [1][38]. Technology and Patent Strategy - Qualcomm builds a strong patent moat through a combination of self-research and acquisitions, holding approximately 5,600 families of 5G SEP patents, ranking second globally. The technology licensing business is the second-largest source of revenue and profit, maintaining a pre-tax profit margin of over 60% for nearly a decade [2][43]. Business Growth Opportunities - The smartphone market is showing weak recovery, but IoT and automotive businesses are expected to create a second growth curve. In IoT, Qualcomm is enhancing its presence in PC and smart glasses markets, with a forecasted revenue growth of 20% in FY2025. In automotive, the company is expanding its share in smart cockpit and advanced driving chips, with projected revenue growth of 34% in FY2025 [3][12]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Qualcomm's net profits for FY2025-2027 to be $10.819 billion, $11.506 billion, and $12.477 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 6.7%, 6.3%, and 8%. The current price corresponds to a PE of 16X, 15X, and 14X for FY2025-2027, which is below the average PE of comparable companies [5][6][14]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Qualcomm is positioned as a leader in the smartphone SoC market, holding a 59% market share in the high-end Android smartphone chip market in 2024. However, the company faces challenges from Apple's self-developed baseband chips, which are expected to significantly reduce Qualcomm's revenue from Apple by 2027 [1][4][11].

2025年7月16日 总量研究 关税影响逐步显性化 -2025 年 6 月美国 CPI 数据点评 要点 作者 事件: 分析师:高瑞东 1) 6 月美国 CPI 同比+2.7%, 前值+2.4%,市场预期+2.7%; 2) 季调后 CPI 环比 执业证书编号:S0930520120007 +0.3%,前值+0.1%，市场预期+0.3%; 3）核心 CPI 同比+2.9%,前值+2.8%,市 010-56513108 分析师:刘星辰 执业证书编号: S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 场预期+3.0%;4) 季调后核心 CPI 环比+0.2%,前值+0.1%,市场预期+0.3%。 美国通胀继续回落,关税冲击尚待显现 -- 2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-05-14) 高关税如何影响美国通胀? -- 2025年3月 美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-04-11) 美国通胀超预期回落,未来降息节奏如何? -- 2025 年 2 月美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-03-13) 美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-02-13) 美 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, which will further solidify its leading position in the panel industry and enhance its competitive advantages [1]. - The repurchase of minority shareholder rights in Wuhan B17 is expected to boost the parent company's performance, increasing its equity stake from 47.14% to 58.36% [2]. - The company's depreciation is projected to peak in 2025, with a subsequent decline expected to provide significant profit elasticity [3]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to CNY 8.784 billion and CNY 12.471 billion, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 7% and 8% [3]. Summary by Sections Acquisition and Strategic Moves - The company intends to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics for approximately CNY 4.849 billion, which aligns with its strategic development goals and aims to enhance its industry influence [1]. Performance and Financial Projections - The repurchase of shares in Wuhan B17 is anticipated to positively impact the company's operational performance, with a focus on high-generation lines becoming a key growth driver [2]. - The company expects its depreciation to peak in 2025, with a gradual decline thereafter, which is expected to improve profitability [3]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are CNY 8.784 billion and CNY 12.471 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at CNY 14.486 billion [3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from CNY 174.543 billion in 2023 to CNY 273.063 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.22% [5]. - The net profit is expected to recover significantly from CNY 2.547 billion in 2023 to CNY 14.486 billion in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The report indicates a PE ratio decreasing from 60 in 2023 to 10 in 2027, suggesting an improving valuation as profitability increases [12].

Macro Analysis - The overall performance of the demand side is stable, but the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment has significantly declined due to high temperatures, further decline in PPI, and a complex external environment, leading to more cautious investment decisions by market entities [2] - In June, financial data showed strong performance, driven by seasonal factors and the weakening of the corporate credit demand squeeze effect as special refinancing bonds approached their end [3] - In June, exports increased by 5.8%, mainly due to resilience in non-U.S. exports and "export grabbing" to the U.S., with expectations of slight pressure on exports in the second half of the year [4] Banking Sector - In June, loan issuance surged, with new social financing reaching 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2 percentage points to 8.9% compared to the end of May, indicating a seasonal strengthening of credit activity [5] - The M2-M1 gap has narrowed, suggesting a potential for continued positive performance in bank sector stock prices [5] Real Estate Sector - In the first half of 2025, the transaction area of residential properties in 30 core cities decreased by 5% year-on-year, while the average transaction price increased by 4% [7] - The divergence in regional and city performance is deepening, with investment recommendations focusing on structural alpha opportunities [7] Company Research - For Chengzhi Co., Ltd., the expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 15 million and 22 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 88.24% to 91.98% [8] - Puyang Huicheng's net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 305 million yuan due to slower-than-expected growth in active magnesium oxide business [9] - Keda Manufacturing expects a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by overseas expansion and price increases in building materials [10] - Yiling Pharmaceutical's self-developed product has been approved for sale in Macau, indicating a positive trend in the company's performance and R&D efforts [11]