Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) with a current price of 26.05 CNY and a target price of 35.54 CNY [1]. Core Views - Haier Smart Home is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for air conditioning in Europe due to climate change, with the company holding significant market shares in Eastern and Western Europe [5][6]. - The report highlights that the air conditioning penetration rate in Europe is significantly lower than in other major economies, indicating substantial growth potential [5]. - The extreme heat conditions in Europe are expected to further drive the demand for air conditioning, with projections showing a doubling of air conditioning units in the EU by 2050 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes that Haier's air conditioning business is experiencing significant growth, particularly in Eastern Europe where it holds a 34% market share, and 9% in Western Europe, ranking first and second respectively [6]. - The penetration rates for air conditioning in Western and Eastern Europe have increased by 8 and 11 percentage points compared to 2019 [5]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects Haier Smart Home's net profit for 2025 to be 21.5 billion CNY, with a corresponding PE ratio of 11 [7]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 261.43 billion CNY in 2023 to 307.31 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.46% [8]. Competitive Positioning - Haier's competitive advantage in Europe is attributed to its "three-in-one" strategy of localized R&D, manufacturing, and marketing, which has allowed it to adapt products to local needs effectively [6]. - The company has established a strong service network in Russia, with 196 service centers across more than 120 cities [6]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes that the air conditioning market in Europe is underpenetrated compared to China (97%), the US (92%), and Japan (96%), suggesting a significant opportunity for growth [5][10]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the number of air conditioning units in the EU will increase to 275 million by 2050, more than double the number in 2019 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI.O) [4][6] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 7.33 billion RMB in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 19.7%. The revenue breakdown by business segment includes gaming at 1.61 billion RMB (yoy +60%), VAS at 2.82 billion RMB (yoy +10%), advertising at 2.42 billion RMB (yoy +19%), and e-commerce at 480 million RMB (yoy -8%) [1] - The report highlights the strengthening of advertising infrastructure through AI, including the reconstruction of recommendation algorithms and creative generation, which is expected to enhance efficiency and effectiveness in advertising [3] - The gaming segment is anticipated to see significant growth with the launch of new games and updates, which are expected to drive user engagement and monetization [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for Bilibili is expected to grow from 22.53 billion RMB in 2023 to 30.24 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 12.7% in 2025 [5][10] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of 3.41 billion RMB in 2023 to a profit of 2.15 billion RMB in 2025 [5][10] Business Segment Performance - The gaming business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with notable titles like "FGO" and "碧蓝航线" driving user growth and revenue [2] - Advertising revenue is projected to grow due to enhanced AI capabilities, with an expected ROI achievement rate exceeding 75% in 2024 [3] Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including expected EPS growth from -11.46 RMB in 2023 to 1.91 RMB in 2025 [5][10] - The P/S ratio is projected to decrease from 3.3 in 2023 to 2.5 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [5][10]

——石化化工反内卷稳增长系列之四 石油化工/基础化工 增持（维持） 7 月 18 日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍 2025 年上半年工业和 信息化发展情况。工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋表示，将实施新一轮钢铁、有 色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，推动重点行业着力调结构、 优供给、淘汰落后产能，具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。 要点 点评： 事件： 2025 年 7 月 22 日 行业研究 老旧装置退出有望改善炼油景气度，炼化产业转型加速 炼油老旧装置占比较高，老旧产能淘汰助力行业竞争力提升 我国炼油行业起步较早，1958 年兰州石化投产填补了我国石油化工行业空 白，改革开放后炼油行业进入快速发展期，至 2000 年我国炼油能力为 3.6 亿吨， 2005 年我国原油加工量为 2.86 亿吨，为 2024 年原油加工量的 40%。炼油行业 发展过程中产生了大量建设历史较久老旧装置，根据中国石化 2001 年披露的 A 股招股说明书，2000 年中国石化拥有原油一次加工能力 1.3 亿吨，相当于公司 2024 年炼能的 44%，拥有 13 家炼能超过 500 万吨的炼厂和茂名、镇海、齐鲁、 ...

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in U.S. exports in June, while the engineering machinery category remains in a high prosperity state [1] - U.S. retail sales showed a significant rebound in June, with a month-on-month growth rate of +0.6%, exceeding market expectations [3] - The report indicates that tariffs and other factors have negatively impacted exports to North America, particularly for electric tools and lawn mowers [4][10] Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - Electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers are primarily targeted at high-end consumers in Europe and the U.S. [3] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 5%, -6%, and 47% respectively [4] - Exports to North America for electric tools and lawn mowers showed a year-on-year decline of -7% and -4% respectively [4] - Recommendations include关注泉峰控股, 巨星科技, 创科实业, and 格力博 [10] Capital Goods - Industrial - The report notes that the global manufacturing PMI has slightly increased to 49.5%, with Asia leading at 50.7% [10] - Cumulative export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines in the first half of 2025 were -1%, +12%, and +20% respectively [8] - Recommendations include关注安徽合力, 杭叉集团, 纽威数控, 科德数控, 杰克股份, and 宏华数科 [10] Capital Goods - Engineering Machinery - Cumulative export growth rates for major engineering machinery, excavators, tractors, and mining machinery in the first half of 2025 were 11%, 22%, 26%, and 23% respectively [9][11] - The report emphasizes strong growth in exports to Africa, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 65% [5] - Recommendations include关注一拖股份, 徐工机械, 中联重科 (A/H), 三一重工, 柳工, and 恒立液压 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a projected investment return that exceeds the market benchmark index by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the holdings of actively managed equity funds in the non-ferrous metals sector increased, with a notable rise in rare earth and minor metals [1][2]. - The total market value of heavy holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector reached approximately 70.4 billion yuan, representing 4.29% of the total heavy holdings of funds, an increase from 4.22% in Q1 2025 [1]. - The top ten heavy holdings are concentrated in copper, gold, and aluminum, with Zijin Mining remaining the largest holding at 22.8 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - The increase in holdings is primarily in rare earth and minor metals, with significant increases in stocks such as Guangsheng Nonferrous (largest increase in rare earth), Haotong Technology (platinum, palladium, rhodium recovery), and others [2]. - Conversely, reductions in holdings were noted in aluminum, gold, and certain processing stocks, with the largest decrease in Western Materials (titanium) [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that supply constraints will support price increases for rare earths, copper, and aluminum, while precious metals will benefit from weakened dollar credit and a rate-cutting cycle [2]. - Specific recommendations include: - Rare Earths: Favorable outlook for prices, with recommendations for Northern Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [2]. - Copper: Limited supply growth, with a positive demand outlook in Q4 2025; recommended stocks include Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - Aluminum: Anticipated supply constraints; recommended stock is China Hongqiao [2]. - Gold: Positive outlook due to weakened dollar credit and increasing ETF demand; recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold [2]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with all recommended companies rated as "Increase" [4]. - Notable companies include: - Zijin Mining: EPS forecast of 1.77 yuan for 2025, PE of 11 [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS forecast of 0.62 yuan for 2025, PE of 14 [4]. - Jincheng Mining: EPS forecast of 3.61 yuan for 2025, PE of 13 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Increase" [5] Core Viewpoints - In Q2 2025, the holdings of non-ferrous metal heavy stocks by active equity funds increased, with significant increases in rare earth and minor metals [1][2] - The total market value of active equity funds' holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector reached approximately 70.4 billion yuan, accounting for 4.29% of the total heavy stock holdings, an increase of 0.07 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1] - The top ten heavy stocks are concentrated in copper, gold, and aluminum, with Zijin Mining remaining the largest heavy stock [1] Summary by Sections Heavy Stock Holdings - The market value of the top ten heavy stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector includes Zijin Mining (22.8 billion yuan), Shandong Gold (4.4 billion yuan), and Zhongjin Gold (3 billion yuan) [1] - The increase in holdings is mainly concentrated in rare earth and minor metal sectors, with the largest increases seen in stocks like Guangsheng Nonferrous (rare earth) and Haotong Technology (platinum, palladium, rhodium recovery) [2] Investment Recommendations - Supply constraints are expected to support the price increases of rare earths, copper, and aluminum, while precious metals will benefit from weakened dollar credit and a rate-cutting cycle [2] - Specific recommendations include: - Rare Earth: Favorable outlook for rare earth prices, with recommendations for Northern Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [2] - Copper: Limited supply growth due to reduced capital expenditure, with recommendations for Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [2] - Aluminum: Anticipated supply ceiling for electrolytic aluminum, recommending China Hongqiao [2] - Gold: Positive outlook for gold prices due to weakened dollar credit, with recommendations for Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are as follows: - Zijin Mining: EPS of 1.21 (2024), PE of 16 (2024) [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS of 0.63 (2024), PE of 14 (2024) [4] - Jincheng Mining: EPS of 2.54 (2024), PE of 19 (2024) [4] - Western Mining: EPS of 1.23 (2024), PE of 14 (2024) [4] - China Hongqiao: EPS of 2.36 (2024), PE of 8 (2024) [4] - Northern Rare Earth: EPS of 0.28 (2024), PE of 126 (2024) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong revenue and profit resilience, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 10.1% to 6.06 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 13.5% to 1.97 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The return on average equity (ROAE) improved to 13.3%, up by 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 489.5% [7][9] Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue and net profit growth rates for the first half of 2025 were 10.1% and 13.5%, respectively, showing resilience in performance [4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue growth of 10.2% and a net profit growth of 13.2% compared to the same period last year [4] - The bank's total assets and loans grew by 9.2% and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a steady expansion [4][5] Asset and Liability Management - The bank's total liabilities and deposits grew by 9% and 9.9% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable increase in deposit growth in the second quarter [5] - The loan-to-deposit growth rate difference widened to 4.7 percentage points, indicating a good match in growth between loans and deposits [5] Interest Margin and Cost Control - The report anticipates a narrowing of the interest margin decline due to effective cost control on liabilities and adjustments in deposit rates [6] - The bank has adjusted its deposit rates multiple times this year, which is expected to gradually alleviate the trend towards longer-term deposits [5][6] Capital Adequacy and Future Growth - The company has a strong capital replenishment capability, supported by a 6 billion yuan convertible bond that is expected to convert favorably [8] - The bank's earnings growth forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 11.4%, 10.7%, and 6%, respectively, with adjusted EPS estimates of 1.28, 1.42, and 1.50 yuan [9][10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The equity market continues to rise, with equity funds showing a net value increase of 3.06%, particularly in the healthcare theme funds which have demonstrated significant performance advantages [2] - Passive funds are seeing a shift, with inflows into financial real estate and dividend-themed ETFs, while large-cap broad-based ETFs are experiencing outflows [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and an installed capacity of 60-81 million kilowatts, benefiting the "duopoly" in hydropower equipment [4] - The project is expected to generate substantial construction and material orders, significantly boosting infrastructure investment growth in China [5] Group 3: Real Estate Market - As of July 20, 2025, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 441,000 units, a decrease of 3.5%, while second-hand home transactions increased by 12.8% [6] Group 4: Steel Industry - The expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity has risen, with rebar prices reaching a new high since April 2025, indicating potential recovery in steel sector profitability [8] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry - The recent updates on the 2024 medical insurance fund and centralized procurement policies indicate a strong growth momentum for the innovative drug sector, with several companies successfully launching innovative drugs internationally [9] Group 6: Chemical Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a stable growth plan for the petrochemical industry, which is expected to optimize the industry structure by phasing out outdated production capacity [10] Group 7: Machinery Industry - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung hydropower project, with domestic sales recovering and export volumes maintaining growth [10] Group 8: Company Research - The report on Mai Fushi indicates a strong market position due to its comprehensive product matrix and high customer retention, with projected revenues of 2.36 billion, 3.17 billion, and 4.13 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the power equipment and renewable energy sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and an installed capacity of 60-81 million kilowatts, expected to generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually, equivalent to three Three Gorges power stations [2][3]. - The domestic hydropower equipment market is characterized by a "dual oligopoly" structure, with Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric projected to secure a significant share of the orders for the new hydropower project due to their established market positions [3][4]. - Both Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric have reported robust growth in new orders, with Dongfang Electric achieving 101.14 billion yuan in new orders in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.88%, and Harbin Electric reporting a 30.55% increase in contract signing [4]. Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is located in Nyingchi, Tibet, and involves the construction of five stepped power stations, with a total investment of around 1.2 trillion yuan and an annual power generation capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours [2]. Market Dynamics - The hydropower equipment sector is dominated by Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric, with market shares of 45% and 50% respectively in conventional hydropower and large-scale installations [3]. Financial Performance - Dongfang Electric's new orders reached 101.14 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 16.88% increase, while Harbin Electric's contract signing amounted to 56.87 billion yuan, a 30.55% increase, indicating strong demand for power equipment [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric due to their expected growth in orders and revenue from the Yarlung Tsangpo project and other power generation sectors [5]. Additionally, companies involved in power transmission and grid equipment, such as XJ Electric and Pinggao Electric, are also recommended for investment consideration [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and building materials industry [4] Core Insights - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to generate substantial construction and material orders [1][2] - The project is estimated to have a capacity of 60 million kW, with an average construction cost of 20,344 yuan/kW for hydropower projects in 2023 [1][2] - The project is anticipated to have a construction period of 15-20 years, leading to an annual investment of 60-80 billion yuan [2] - The project will significantly boost infrastructure investment growth in China, with a 4.6% year-on-year increase in infrastructure investment in the first half of 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project is located in Linzhi City, Tibet, and involves the construction of five tiered power stations to enhance power generation efficiency [1] - The total investment is about six times that of the Three Gorges Project, which had a total investment of 207.2 billion yuan [2] Investment Structure - The investment structure for hydropower projects includes approximately 32%-45% for permanent construction, 18%-25% for electromechanical equipment, and 10%-35% for other costs [2] Market Impact - The project is part of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is expected to effectively stimulate infrastructure investment growth [3] - Recommended companies to watch include China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, and several others involved in construction and materials [3]