Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on specific companies within the construction and building materials sector, indicating potential investment opportunities based on market conditions and company performance [6][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of index weight adjustments on stock prices, particularly for companies in the construction and building materials sector, with notable changes in the sample stocks of various indices [6][5]. - The external trade environment is becoming increasingly uncertain, particularly following the announcement of increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum by the U.S. President, which may disrupt the operations of export-related companies [5]. - The report identifies several companies to watch, including Honglu Steel Structure, Puyang Refractories, Hainan Huate, Beixin Building Materials, China Chemical, China State Construction, Shanghai Port, and others, based on their growth potential and market conditions [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the effects of index weight adjustments on stock prices, particularly for companies being removed from major indices [6][5]. 2. Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes a table of earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the sector, indicating their expected performance and market positioning [8]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The construction and building materials indices showed varied performance, with the construction index up by 1.12% and the building materials index up by 0.60% for the week [11]. - Specific companies within the sector experienced significant weekly price changes, with Sichuan Jinding up by 15.34% and Tianan New Materials down by 15.68% [19][20]. 4. Aggregate Data Tracking - The report tracks overall market trends and performance metrics for the construction and building materials sector, providing insights into broader market movements [10]. 5. High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report includes high-frequency data that reflects real-time market conditions and trends affecting the construction and building materials sector [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5]. Core Insights - The PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF dual antibody concept is gaining significant attention, with Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies leading the research and development efforts [2][20]. - The global market for dual antibodies is projected to exceed $80 billion by 2030, with PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF drugs expected to challenge traditional PD-1/PD-L1 therapies in cancer treatment [20][21]. - The report highlights the importance of clinical data barriers and international expansion for companies in this sector, suggesting that these factors will create differentiated investment opportunities [3][26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 2.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points [11][12]. - Among sub-industries, other biological products led with a 4.65% increase, while offline pharmacies saw a decline of 2.69% [12][19]. Clinical Progress - Notable advancements include the IND applications for BG-60366 by BeiGene and RFUS-949 by Renfu Pharmaceutical, as well as ongoing clinical trials for several drugs [29][30]. - Companies like Hengrui Medicine and Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical are in Phase III trials, while others are in earlier stages [29][31]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three payment channels: hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments [4][26]. - Key recommendations include Hengrui Medicine, Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Yuyue Medical [4]. Company Updates - Recent announcements include significant collaborations and product approvals, such as the $60.5 billion global licensing deal between 3SBio and Pfizer [2][28]. - The report notes that as of June 1, 2025, there are 14 PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF products in clinical stages, all associated with Chinese companies [21][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5]. Core Insights - The PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF dual antibody concept is gaining significant attention, with Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies leading the research and development efforts [2][20]. - The global market for dual antibodies is projected to exceed $80 billion by 2030, with PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF drugs expected to challenge the traditional PD-1/PD-L1 drugs in cancer treatment [20][21]. - The report highlights the importance of clinical data barriers and international expansion for companies in this sector, suggesting that these factors will create differentiated investment opportunities [3][26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 2.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.00 percentage points, ranking second among 31 sub-industries [11][12]. Clinical Progress - Notable advancements include the IND applications for BG-60366 by BeiGene and RFUS-949 by Renfu Pharmaceutical, as well as ongoing clinical trials for various drugs by companies like Hengrui Medicine and Stone Pharmaceutical [29][30]. Key Developments - The report notes that 14 PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF products are currently in clinical stages, all associated with Chinese companies, with the fastest progress seen in Ivonescimab by Kangfang Biotech, which has been approved in China [21][22]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three payment channels: hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments [4][26]. - Recommended companies include Hengrui Medicine, Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Yuyue Medical [4]. Company Announcements - Recent announcements include various companies receiving approvals for new drugs and medical devices, indicating ongoing innovation and regulatory progress within the sector [28][29].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates the revenue and profit growth rate of the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The pricing mechanism is determined by the long-term contract system, where the sales price for the next month is based on the last price index of the current month[10] - The model uses the year-on-year changes in price and capacity factors to estimate monthly revenue and profit growth rates[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability, but it relies heavily on the stability of the pricing mechanism and external factors like market demand[10][14] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the hog supply-demand gap six months ahead based on the breeding sow inventory and historical slaughter coefficients[15] - **Model Construction Process**: - The slaughter coefficient is calculated as: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[15] - The potential supply six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Breeding Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6, YoY)} $[15] - The potential demand six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Demand (t+6)} = \text{Hog Slaughter (t+6, YoY)} $[16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this model effectively identifies hog price upward cycles, making it a valuable tool for supply-demand analysis[16] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profit for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[18] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel to estimate profit growth rates[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed profit analysis but is sensitive to fluctuations in raw material prices and global demand[22] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability changes and generate allocation signals[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying short-term profitability trends but requires additional macroeconomic indicators for long-term predictions[30] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activities[31] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads using variations in fuel and crude oil prices[31] - Allocation signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of industry profitability but is highly dependent on volatile oil price movements[35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for June 2025 due to lower coal prices compared to the previous year[14] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Predicted a balanced supply-demand scenario for Q4 2025, with potential supply and demand both estimated at 18,226 million hogs[17] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a slight year-on-year profit decline for May 2025, with PMI rolling averages remaining flat[22] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year decline in gross profit for May 2025[30] - **Cement Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit growth for May 2025, driven by price recovery[30] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for May 2025 due to lower oil prices compared to the previous year[35] - **Oilfield Services**: Observed stable new drilling activity and lower oil prices compared to the previous year, maintaining a neutral outlook[38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The third round of the fourth batch of central ecological environment protection inspections has been fully launched, focusing on five provinces and three central enterprises, which may impact the chemical industry [21][22] - The pesticide industry is undergoing capacity optimization due to stricter environmental regulations, with many non-compliant small enterprises exiting the market [24] - The explosion at Youdao Chemical has affected the supply of chlorantraniliprole, potentially leading to price increases [25][29] - The organic pigment industry is consolidating, with a positive outlook for high-performance organic pigments due to increasing domestic production capabilities and environmental regulations [30][33] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The basic chemical industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Industry Dynamics - The central ecological environment protection inspections are expected to tighten regulations on the chemical industry, impacting production and compliance [21][22] - The pesticide sector is seeing a shift towards greener production methods, with a focus on reducing pesticide usage and promoting bio-pesticides [22][24] Pesticide Industry - The pesticide industry is experiencing a structural optimization, with a significant reduction in high-toxicity products and an increase in the market share of low-risk alternatives [24] - The recent explosion at Youdao Chemical has disrupted the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which is the leading insecticide globally, potentially leading to price increases [25][29] Organic Pigment Industry - The organic pigment sector is witnessing consolidation, with a focus on high-performance products that meet stricter environmental standards [30][33] - Domestic companies are increasingly capable of producing high-performance organic pigments, which are expected to replace traditional pigments in the market [30][33]

Strategy - The report anticipates a market style shift towards defensive and undervalued sectors, with high scores for coal, utilities, banking, non-bank financials, construction decoration, and oil and petrochemicals, suggesting these industries may be worth investors' attention [1] Market Overview - In the week ending May 31, 2025, major asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq index leading in gains, while the A-share broad index mostly declined, with the CSI 500 showing the highest increase [2] Quantitative Analysis - As of May 30, 2025, the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 increased month-on-month, indicating a market sentiment improvement, although momentum indicators suggest a cautious outlook for the near term [3] Bond Market - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.67% by the end of May 2025, reflecting investor concerns about liquidity, but the report suggests that there is no need for excessive worry regarding the funding environment [4] - As of May 31, 2025, the total outstanding credit bonds in China reached 29.69 trillion yuan, with a significant month-on-month decrease in issuance [5] Automotive Industry - The automotive market remained stable in May, with new energy vehicle manufacturers expected to lead in intelligent driving innovations, despite short-term price wars affecting market sentiment [7] Real Estate Industry - In May, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 3% month-on-month, although the cumulative sales from January to May showed an 8% year-on-year decline [8] Machinery Industry - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on humanoid robotics and related technologies, suggesting potential investment opportunities in companies like Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry [9] Communication Sector - The report highlights the growth potential for companies focused on motor drive control, with profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 being raised significantly, indicating a positive long-term outlook [10] Consumer Goods Sector - The report discusses the transformation of a beauty company into a multi-brand, multi-channel group, projecting significant profit growth over the next few years, supported by strong performance on social media platforms [11] Home Appliances Sector - The company maintains its leading position in the lighting industry, although profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards due to market competition and uncertainties in the real estate sector [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company focuses on its core lighting business and continues to enhance its high dividend attributes, with a cash dividend of 666 million yuan for 2024, representing a payout ratio of 73.8%, the highest since 2016 [6] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend ratio of no less than 40% from 2025 to 2027, potentially increasing to 80% if it reaches a mature development stage without significant capital expenditure [6] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.49 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, and expects a total revenue of 7.1 billion yuan for 2024, down 9.0% year-on-year [7] - The company is optimizing its channels and enhancing its competitive edge, focusing on smart, energy-saving, and health-oriented trends in the lighting industry [7] - Digital transformation efforts are aimed at reducing costs and increasing efficiency across various business segments [8] - Long-term, the company is expected to maintain its leading position in the lighting and electrical sector, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 933 million yuan and 1.03 billion yuan, respectively [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 7.1 billion yuan for 2024, with a projected revenue growth rate of -8.96% [9] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 903 million yuan, with a slight decrease of 2.28% year-on-year [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.21 yuan [9] Profitability and Valuation - The gross margin is expected to be 39.3% in 2024, with a slight increase to 39.8% by 2027 [20] - The company maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 for 2025, decreasing to 12 by 2027 [21] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.4% in 2024, increasing to 14.0% by 2027 [20] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.0 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, with a total cash dividend of 666 million yuan [6] - The dividend payout ratio is set to increase, with a target of at least 40% from 2025 to 2027 [6]

2025 年 6 月 3 日 总量研究 发行规模季节性下滑，信用利差延续收窄态势 ——信用债月度观察（2025.05） 要点 1、 信用债发行与到期 2、信用债成交与利差 城投债方面，2025 年 5 月，我国城投债成交量为 8011.5 亿元，环比和同比均有 所下滑。2025 年 5 月城投债换手率为 5.22%。2025 年 5 月，我国各等级城投 的城投债信用利差较上月有所收窄。 产业债方面，2025 年 5 月，我国产业债成交量为 12889.79 亿元，环比和同比 均有所下滑。2025 年 5 月产业债换手率为 8.99%。2025 年 5 月，我国各等级 产业主体的信用利差较上月有所收窄。 3、风险提示 数据统计口径不同；部分行业基本面恢复速度较慢，流动性恶化的前提下，债券 违约风险可能超出预期；若相关政策收紧，需要警惕再融资滚续压力，资质较差 的主体风险暴露速度将加快。 作者 分析师：张旭 执业证书编号：S0930516010001 010-58452066 zhang_xu@ebscn.com 整体来看，截至 2025 年 5 月末，我国存量信用债余额为 29.69 万亿元。2025 年 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The machinery industry is experiencing a continuous recovery in its economic climate, particularly in the engineering machinery segment, with significant growth in sales and production expected in 2025 [6][13]. - The introduction of the "Ge Wu - Zhi Zhi" general embodied intelligence development platform is expected to accelerate the application and research of humanoid robots, addressing existing challenges in the field [3]. - The report highlights the importance of various sub-industries, including humanoid robots, machine tools, agricultural machinery, and engineering machinery, each showing distinct trends and growth potential [4][7][8][13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - The launch of the "Zhi Zhi" platform aims to enhance humanoid robot development by integrating core technologies across operating systems, middleware, and software frameworks [3]. - Companies like Shanghai Aoyi Information Technology and Hefei Zero Point are introducing innovative humanoid robots targeting various applications, including healthcare and hospitality [4][5]. - The humanoid robot industry is projected to see significant production increases in 2025, with a focus on high-complexity dexterous hands and cost reduction in production [6]. Machine Tools - Japan's machine tool orders in April 2025 reached 130.206 billion yen, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [7]. - China's metal cutting machine tool production in the first four months of 2025 was 264,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.8% [7]. Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market in China showed a decline in the AMI index to 47.9% in April 2025, indicating a downturn in the sector [8]. - Despite the current challenges, long-term demand for agricultural machinery is expected to rise, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [9]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a recovery, with excavator sales in April 2025 reaching 22,142 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [13]. - The report suggests that infrastructure investment will remain robust, supporting the demand for engineering machinery [13]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report notes that the implementation of reciprocal tariffs is accelerating the domestic substitution of key semiconductor equipment, particularly photolithography machines [16]. - The establishment of the third phase of the Big Fund, with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan, is expected to significantly boost the domestic semiconductor industry [17]. New Energy Equipment - The report highlights several new energy projects, including the launch of a 100GW monocrystalline silicon wafer production line by Longi Green Energy, indicating a strong push towards renewable energy technologies [19]. - The market for photovoltaic components is expected to stabilize and grow due to policy support and technological advancements [19]. Low-altitude Economy and EVTOL - The report discusses the government's initiatives to promote the low-altitude economy, including the development of drone delivery systems and infrastructure [20][22]. - The low-altitude economy is anticipated to drive new consumption patterns and industry growth, with significant investments being made in this area [22].

2025 年 6 月 3 日 总量研究 医药主题基金优势延续，股票 ETF 资金转为流入 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250603 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.5.26-2025.5.30 ） 国 内 权 益 市 场 指 数 表 现 分 化 ， 中 证 500 上 涨 0.32%。行业方面，本周环保、医药生物、国防军工行业涨幅居前，汽车、 电力设备、有色金属行业跌幅居前。基金市场方面，本周股混基金集体回 调，现金类产品维持正收益。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内市场新成立基金 30 只，合计发行份额为 189.87 亿份。其中债券型基金 8 只、股票型基金 19 只、混合型基金 3 只。 全市场新发行基金 38 只，从类型来看，混合型基金 18 只、股票型基金 14 只、债券型基金 6 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数方面，本周医药主题基金表现优 势延续，净值上涨 3.54%。截至 2025 年 5 月 30 日，本周医药、国防军工、 金融地产、TMT、消费、行业轮动、行业均衡、周期、新能源主题基金涨跌 幅分别为 3.54%、0.87%、0 ...