Market Indicators - The micro trading temperature index has decreased to 44%, down 5 percentage points from the previous period[12] - The proportion of indicators in the overheated range has dropped to 15%, with only 3 out of 20 indicators classified as overheated[16] - The TL/T long-short ratio has significantly decreased by 55 percentage points to 24%, moving from the overheated to the cold range[20] Institutional Behavior - The fund duration has fallen to 2.87 years, with a 23 percentage point decline in its percentile value, indicating a shift to the cold range[24] - The configuration plate strength has increased by 27 percentage points, moving into the overheated range[23] - The pressure for profit-taking in bond funds has decreased by 18 percentage points to 0%, indicating a cold market[26] Interest Rate Dynamics - The policy interest rate has turned positive for the first time in four months, with the 3-year government bond yield rising from -2 basis points to 2 basis points[26] - The credit spread and the agricultural development bond spread have widened by 8 basis points and 4 basis points, respectively[27] - The average spread among various interest rates has slightly widened from 21 basis points to 22 basis points, with a 2 percentage point increase in its percentile value[27] Price Comparisons - The commodity price ratio has decreased by 9 percentage points to 32%, moving from the neutral to the cold range[28] - The consumer goods price ratio remains in the overheated range at 100%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a rating of A [6] Core Insights - The global BTK inhibitor market is projected to reach $12.495 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.25%, primarily driven by the increased market share of BeiGene's Brukinsa [21][22] - BeiGene's Brukinsa has achieved a market share of 21.2% in 2024, ranking third globally, and reached 24.9% in Q4 2024, surpassing AstraZeneca's Acalbrutinib [21][23] - Johnson & Johnson's Imbruvica remains the market leader with a share of 51.1%, while AstraZeneca's Acalbrutinib holds 25.0% [21][22] Weekly New Drug Market Review - From February 24 to March 2, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: Chuangsheng Group (65.17%), CanSino Biologics (33.64%), Fuhong Hanlin (28.87%), Kexing Pharmaceutical (24.69%), and Yongtai Biological (23.12%) [15][17] - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: WuXi AppTec (-20.33%), Hualing Pharmaceutical (-18.72%), Junsheng Tai (-14.81%), Yiming Oncology (-11.94%), and Ascentage Pharma (-9.41%) [15][17] Weekly New Drug Industry Analysis - The report updates the global BTK inhibitor market size and share based on the latest financial disclosures from companies like Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, BeiGene, and Eli Lilly [21] - In Q4 2024, the global BTK inhibitor market size reached $3.329 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.16% [23][26] Weekly New Drug Approval & Acceptance - Three new drugs or new indications were approved for market entry in China this week, with 39 new drugs approved for IND, 33 new drugs accepted for IND, and 10 new drugs accepted for NDA [27][28] Domestic New Drug Industry Highlights - On February 25, 2025, Fosun Pharma's tenapanor, a sodium ion transport protein NHE3 inhibitor, received NMPA approval for controlling hyperphosphatemia in adult patients undergoing dialysis [35] - On February 24, 2025, CanSino Biologics announced a collaboration with Summit Therapeutics for the joint development of the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody injection for various solid tumors [35] - On February 25, 2025, Lino Pharmaceutical's SLN12140 injection for treating primary IgA nephropathy was approved for clinical trials [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 299.25 CNY [3][4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.93 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 37.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.98 billion CNY, down 3.4% year-over-year [1][3]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.92 billion CNY, marking a significant year-over-year growth of 65.9%, although the net profit for the same quarter was 510 million CNY, down 26.3% year-over-year [1][3]. - Domestic sales benefited from government subsidies for replacing old products, while international sales grew rapidly due to optimized sales structures and refined channel layouts [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s Q4 2024 domestic online sales of robotic vacuum cleaners increased by 104% year-over-year, with a similar increase in sales volume [2]. - The estimated growth rate for overseas revenue in Q4 2024 is around 40%, driven by changes in channel structures and proactive market strategies [2]. - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 10.3%, a decrease of 13.0 percentage points year-over-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from domestic subsidies, with online sales in early 2025 showing a year-over-year increase of 97% [2]. - The company’s strong product capabilities and effective management are anticipated to support future revenue growth [3]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.72 CNY, 11.97 CNY, and 13.42 CNY, respectively [3][9]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 25 times [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 21.36 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.82 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit of 1.05 billion CNY, up 7.5% year-over-year [1][3]. - In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 4.13 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 6.2%, and a net profit of 270 million CNY, up 9.9% year-over-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the national subsidy policy for replacing old appliances, which may improve domestic sales in the near future [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q4 external sales continued to grow rapidly, with a year-over-year increase of 14.1%, driven by strong demand for small home appliances and expansion into new product categories [2]. - Domestic sales faced short-term pressure, with a year-over-year decline of 11.2% in Q4, attributed to a lackluster consumer environment in the domestic small appliance market [2]. - The company's Q4 net profit margin improved to 6.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-over-year, mainly due to cost reduction measures and favorable exchange rate effects [2]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the company are projected to be 1.29 CNY, 1.42 CNY, and 1.62 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is estimated to be 15 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its earnings growth [3][4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant improvement in the VC&PE financing of innovative drugs in both global and U.S. markets, with a continuous upward trend observed in January 2025 [1][4][15] - In 2024, the VC&PE financing for innovative drugs in global and U.S. markets has returned to positive growth, with year-on-year increases of 1.93% and 5.29% respectively, marking an improvement of 30.51 and 35.12 percentage points compared to 2023 [2][16] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a notable quarter-on-quarter improvement in VC&PE financing, with global and U.S. markets experiencing year-on-year growth of 19.65% and 11.72%, respectively, which is an increase of 21.06 and 23.94 percentage points from the previous quarter [3][20] - In January 2025, the financing growth rate continued to improve, with global and U.S. markets showing year-on-year increases of 42.43% and 27.51%, respectively, reflecting a month-on-month rise of 30.70 and 54.23 percentage points [4][28] Summary by Sections VC&PE Financing - January 2025 shows a clear improvement in VC&PE financing for innovative drugs in global and U.S. markets [1][4] - Annual observation for 2024 indicates a return to positive growth in VC&PE financing for innovative drugs [2][16] - Quarterly observation for Q4 2024 highlights significant improvements in financing growth rates [3][20] - Monthly observation for January 2025 confirms continued positive trends in financing growth [4][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 10.50 CNY for the next six months [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the domestic consumption upgrade, with a focus on optimizing product structure and expanding its own brand internationally [2][3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 750 million CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.3%, while the net profit is expected to be 70 million CNY, a decrease of 2.6% year-over-year [1][2]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed strong performance with revenue of 250 million CNY, up 28.2% year-over-year, and a net profit of 30 million CNY, up 61.3% year-over-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's domestic sales in Q4 increased by 20.5% year-over-year, driven by marketing efforts and government subsidies for appliance upgrades [1]. - The overseas sales revenue in Q4 surged by 65.6%, with overseas brand business revenue increasing by 209.9% and OEM business revenue by 30.0% [1]. - The net profit margin for Q4 was 12.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to scale effects and improved gross margins [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 870 million CNY in 2025 and 970 million CNY in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 90 million CNY and 100 million CNY [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.21 CNY for 2024, 0.26 CNY for 2025, and 0.31 CNY for 2026 [2][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned in the high-end market segment and is expected to benefit from the trend of quality consumption among consumers [2]. - The strategy includes optimizing product categories and expanding user touchpoints across all channels, which is anticipated to lead to continuous improvement in operational performance [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Views - The report expresses a positive outlook on industrial metals, driven by the expansion of the US manufacturing PMI and favorable domestic macroeconomic policies [23][36]. - The report highlights the resilience of industrial metal prices, particularly in the context of upcoming seasonal demand increases [23]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The US manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 51.6, marking a new high since June 2024 and indicating continued expansion [23]. - Domestic new home prices in China have shown an increase, particularly in second-tier cities, which enhances market expectations for macroeconomic policies [23]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Jiangxi Copper among others [23]. Copper - LME copper closed at $9,516 per ton, up 0.53% from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 77,020 CNY per ton, down 1.37% [27]. - The average TC price for imported copper concentrate decreased by $10.8 per ton, indicating ongoing supply tightness [27]. - Social copper inventory reached 357,600 tons, up 3.14% week-on-week, reflecting higher levels compared to previous years [27]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,676 per ton, up 1.54%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,825 CNY per ton, up 0.56% [33]. - The operating rate for alumina plants is reported at 86.27%, with some plants entering a loss-making state [33]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory reached 845,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 8,200 tons [33]. Zinc - LME zinc closed at $2,920 per ton, up 2.87%, while SHFE zinc closed at 23,980 CNY per ton, down 0.60% [8]. - Domestic zinc concentrate inventory decreased by 32,500 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [8]. - The operating rates for galvanizing and die-casting zinc alloy industries have shown improvements [8]. Lithium - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices are reported at 76,150 CNY per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.1% [39]. - Supply from overseas lithium mines remains high, but demand is weak due to sufficient pre-holiday stock [39]. - The report notes a lack of strong purchasing interest in the market, leading to subdued transaction volumes [39]. Nickel - The price of electrolytic nickel is reported at 126,100 CNY per ton, up 0.6% from the previous week [43]. - Nickel supply is tightening due to seasonal weather impacts in Indonesia and the Philippines [43]. - Demand from stainless steel manufacturers has weakened, contributing to a cautious market outlook [43]. Rare Earths - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released new regulations for rare earth mining, which is expected to stabilize prices [14]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth Holdings for potential investment opportunities [14]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold closed at $2,949 per ounce, reflecting a 1.93% increase, while silver prices also saw a slight rise [15]. - The report indicates that ongoing uncertainties in US policies and inflation risks are likely to support gold prices in the near term [15].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" with a target to exceed the market by 10% or more in the next six months [2][38]. Core Insights - Online sales of major home appliance categories have rapidly recovered post-Spring Festival, with significant year-on-year growth in sales for various products [2][6]. - The "old-for-new" policy is effectively driving home appliance sales, with over 397 million consumers participating and sales exceeding 20 billion yuan as of February 19, 2025 [3][5]. - The sales growth for specific categories during the weeks following the Spring Festival includes sweeping robots (+264%), air conditioners (+217%), range hoods (+135%), and color TVs (+83%) [2][6]. Summary by Sections Online Sales Performance - In January 2025, online sales of white goods and color TVs faced pressure due to the Spring Festival timing, but they rebounded strongly in February [2][6]. - Year-on-year sales growth for major appliances during the weeks of February 3 to February 16, 2025, shows significant recovery [7]. Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has been smoothly implemented, with substantial consumer engagement leading to increased sales across 12 major appliance categories [3][5]. - The estimated sales driven by this policy have surpassed 20 billion yuan, with central subsidies exceeding 3 billion yuan [3][5]. Market Performance - The report includes a detailed analysis of the performance of domestic and international home appliance companies, highlighting recent stock price changes and projected revenue growth [34][35][36][37].

国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————汇率约束利率、AI 主导股市 袁方1束加沛2 张端怡（联系人）3 2025 年 02 月 18 日 内容提要 1 月社融的同比多增主要源于贷款和政府债券的支撑。这既有政府债券发行 提速的影响，也与银行争取"开门红"有关。同期居民部门信贷增速仍然偏弱， 显示终端需求尚未明显改善。 伴随近期部分数据回暖、以及稳汇率压力增加，银行间资金面持续收紧，此 前的降息预期明显回摆，债券收益率出现上行。考虑到这一趋势的延续，短端利 率未来一段时间或将维持高位。而从经济和通胀来看，长端利率配置价值犹存。 当下对未来 AI 应用的交易是春季躁动行情的一部分。未来一两个月经济数 据和企业财报将逐步披露，围绕两会的政策预期交易也将展开，届时政策预期与 现实的博弈将重回定价的核心。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 证券研究报告/国投证券宏观定期报告 第 1 页，共 11 页 2025 年 2 月 1宏观分析师，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，shujp@essence.com.cn，S1450523010002 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" [6] Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a stable growth trend, driven by demand in sectors such as AI, new energy vehicles, and consumer electronics [17] - The introduction of advanced AI models like DeepSeek is enhancing the search experience across various platforms, indicating a shift towards AI integration in consumer products [1][25] - BYD's announcement to equip all its models with the high-level driving system "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" reflects a growing trend towards intelligent driving technologies becoming standard in vehicles [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic index PE is at 48.77 times, with a 10-year PE percentile of 68.19% [4][35] - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 0.92%, ranking 27th out of 31 industries [4][36] - The top three gainers in the electronic sector for the week were Yunzhong Technology (+29.69%), Zhishang Technology (+22.73%), and Liyang Chip (+20.83%) [4][33] Semiconductor Sector - AI remains the core driver of incremental demand in the semiconductor market, with stable growth observed in automotive and industrial sectors [17] - TSMC reported a monthly revenue of 293.29 billion NTD in January 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.90% [17] Consumer Electronics - The DeepSeek AI model is being integrated into various products, with different configurations available for enterprise users, indicating a trend towards AI-driven solutions in consumer electronics [25] - In October 2024, China's smartphone shipments reached 27.884 million units, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 1.1% but a month-on-month increase of 17.6% [25][26] Electric Vehicles - BYD plans to equip 21 models with the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" intelligent driving system, emphasizing the trend of intelligent driving becoming a standard feature across all vehicles [3][20] - The domestic production of new energy vehicles increased from 1.074 million units last year to 1.566 million units in November 2024, reflecting strong consumer demand [20]