[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 公 司 简 评 食 品 饮 料 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [盐津铺子 Table_NewTitle]（002847）：核心品类持续放 量，多渠道快速发力 ——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 风险提示：国内市场需求不及预期、食品安全风险、原材料价格波动风险。 [数据日期 Table_cominfo] 2025/05/06 收盘价 87.30 总股本(万股) 27,282 流通A股/B股(万股) 24,473/0 资产负债率(%) 46.81% 市净率(倍) 12.07 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 5,303.93 | 6,803.74 | 8,263.81 | 9,755.62 | | 同比增速(%) | 28.89% | 28.28% | 21.46% | 18.05% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | ...

Group 1: Tourism Market Insights - The domestic tourism market shows stable growth with 314 million trips taken during the May Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [5] - Domestic tourism revenue reached 180.27 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year growth, with per capita spending during the holiday at 574.11 yuan, slightly up from the previous year [5] - The average travel radius for domestic tourists increased by 4.7% to 196.48 kilometers, while the average radius for destination recreation surged by 31.8% to 22.15 kilometers [5] Group 2: Diverse Travel Trends - The self-driving travel market saw a nearly 40% increase in trips, with car rental consumption rising by 24% year-on-year, and the average rental duration extending to 4 days [6] - Long-distance travel destinations like Qinghai and Xinjiang experienced ticket sales growth of 100% to 200% compared to last year, while hotel bookings in county-level cities increased by 30% [6] Group 3: International Travel Growth - The number of people entering and exiting the country during the May Day holiday reached 10.896 million, a 28.7% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in outbound travel orders [7] - Outbound travel orders increased by over 20% year-on-year, while inbound travel orders surged by 130%, driven by visa-free policies and tax refund incentives [7] Group 4: Performance of Tourist Attractions - Major tourist attractions reported record visitor numbers and revenue during the holiday, with the Songcheng Performing Arts receiving 2.1 million visitors, a 26% increase [8] - Huangshan and Emei Mountain also saw significant increases in visitor numbers, with Emei Mountain achieving a revenue of 830 million yuan, up 15.82% [8] Group 5: Electronic Industry Insights - Major cloud service providers like Microsoft and Amazon reported strong Q1 performance, with Microsoft’s revenue reaching $70.066 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, and net profit of $25.824 billion, up 18% [12][13] - Microsoft’s Azure cloud services revenue grew by 33%, while Amazon's AWS cloud business revenue increased by 17% [13] Group 6: Investment Recommendations in Electronics - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as AIOT, AI-driven technologies, and consumer electronics, which are expected to see growth as the industry recovers [16] - Specific companies to watch include semiconductor firms and those involved in AI innovation, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the electronic technology sector [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Views - The company is experiencing marginal improvements in refining and deepening its chemical platform, which is expected to enhance its performance [1] - The company reported a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter [6] - The company is focusing on international expansion and the construction of a diversified chemical platform, which is expected to drive future growth [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 326.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 724.48 million yuan, down 37.44% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 749.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.54% year-on-year, but a net profit of 588 million yuan, which is an increase of 6.53% year-on-year and a significant increase of 486.62% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 11.48%, with expectations for it to rise to 12.97% in 2025 [3][6] Business Segments - The refining and chemical segments showed improvements, with the refining segment achieving a gross profit of 20.71 billion yuan and a margin of 17.57% in 2024 [6] - The chemical segment benefited from price recovery, contributing to steady cash flow growth, with a net profit of 3.54 billion yuan from Zhejiang Petrochemical, a key performance driver for the company [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its international strategy and enhancing its chemical platform, with several projects underway, including the production of α-olefins and rare earth butadiene rubber [6] - The company has engaged in share buybacks and has a stable dividend policy, reflecting long-term investment value [6] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 2.89 billion yuan for 2025, 3.83 billion yuan for 2026, and 4.88 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.29, 0.38, and 0.48 yuan respectively [6]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 ➢ 风险提示：原油价格剧烈波动；下游需求不及预期；新材料项目落地不及预期。 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 289094.84 | 325111.61 | 326475.16 | 333855.87 | 348443.90 | 364351.06 | | 同比增速(%) | 63.31% | 12.46% | 0.42% | 2.26% | 4.37% | 4.57% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3340.16 | 1158.15 | 724.48 | 2887.98 | 3831.54 | 4876.71 | | 同比增速(%) | -73.95% | -65.33% | -37.44% | 298.63% | 32.67% | 27.28% | | 毛利率(%) | 10.81% | 11.49% | ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 超配 业 周 报 非 银 金 融 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -30% -14% 3% 19% 35% 51% 67% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.从蚂蚁要约收购耀才证券，看金融 科技并购券商的国际化布局——资 本市场聚焦（一） 2.万能险最低保证利率可调整，特别 储备与平滑机制保障稳健运行—— 保险业态观察（三） 3.蚂蚁财富要约收购耀才证券，万能 险迎监管优化——非银金融行业周 报（20250421-20250427） [Table_NewTitle 券商一季报业绩大幅增长，保险 ] NBV延 续高增势头 ——非银金融行业周报（20250428-20250504） [table_main] 投资要点： 研 究 [table_invest] 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 超配 业 周 报 非 银 金 融 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -30% -14% 3% 19% 35% 51% 67% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.从蚂蚁要约收购耀才证券，看金融 科技并购券商的国际化布局——资 本市场聚焦（一） 2.万能险最低保证利率可调整，特别 储备与平滑机制保障稳健运行—— 保险业态观察（三） 3.蚂蚁财富要约收购耀才证券，万能 险迎监管优化——非银金融行业周 报（20250421-20250427） [Table_NewTitle 券商一季报业绩大幅增长，保险 ] NBV延 续高增势头 ——非银金融行业周报（20250428-20250504） [table_main] 投资要点： 研 究 [table_invest] 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [4][5]. Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with significant capital expenditures from major cloud service providers like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, reflecting their commitment to AI infrastructure [4]. - Microsoft reported Q1 revenue of $70.066 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising 18% to $25.824 billion. The intelligent cloud segment, including Azure, saw a 33% revenue increase [4]. - Meta's Q1 revenue reached $42.314 billion, up 16% year-on-year, with a net profit of $16.644 billion, marking a 35% increase. The company raised its 2025 capital expenditure forecast to $64-72 billion [4]. - Amazon's Q1 revenue grew 9% to $155.67 billion, with net profit soaring 64% to $17.127 billion. AWS cloud revenue increased 17% [4]. - Apple's Q1 revenue was $95.4 billion, a 5% increase, with a net profit of $24.78 billion. The gross margin reached a three-year high of 47.1% [4]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The report highlights significant advancements in AI and cloud technologies, with major companies investing heavily in infrastructure to support AI applications [10][11][12]. Company Performance - The report details the Q1 performance of various companies, including: - **Lexin Technology**: Q1 revenue of $558 million, up 44.08% year-on-year [19]. - **Weir Shares**: Q1 revenue of $6.472 billion, a 14.68% increase [19]. - **Zhi Chun Technology**: Q1 revenue of $728 million, down 10.32% year-on-year [19]. Market Trends - The electronic sector outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index rising 1.34% while the CSI 300 Index fell 0.43% [20][21]. - The semiconductor sub-sector showed a 2.25% increase, while electronic components experienced a slight decline of 0.39% [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on: - AIOT sector companies such as Lexin Technology and Hengxuan Technology [5]. - AI-driven innovation companies, particularly in computing chips and optical devices [5]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment and materials companies due to expectations of local substitution [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [4][5]. Core Insights - The electronic sector is experiencing a mild recovery, with significant capital expenditures from major cloud service providers like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, reflecting their commitment to AI infrastructure [4]. - Microsoft reported Q1 revenue of $70.066 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising 18% to $25.824 billion. The intelligent cloud segment saw a 33% revenue increase [4]. - Meta's Q1 revenue reached $42.314 billion, up 16% year-on-year, with a net profit of $16.644 billion, marking a 35% increase [4]. - Apple maintained stable performance in Q1 with revenue of $95.4 billion, a 5% increase, and a gross margin of 47.1%, the highest in three years [4]. - The report highlights the electronic sector's performance, with the Shenwan Electronics Index rising 1.34%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.77 percentage points [20]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Major advancements in AI and cloud services are driving growth in the electronic sector, with significant investments in AI capabilities and infrastructure [10][11]. - Apple plans to procure 19 million chips in the U.S. to enhance local supplier collaboration [10]. - New standards for vehicle-mounted lidar have been established, indicating progress in automotive technology [10]. Company Performance - Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon reported strong Q1 results, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, showcasing the resilience of their cloud services [4]. - Apple’s Q1 results reflect a stable market position despite potential impacts from tariff policies [4]. Market Trends - The electronic sector is showing signs of recovery, with various sub-sectors experiencing different levels of growth, such as semiconductors and optical electronics [21][22]. - The report notes a positive trend in the semiconductor sub-sector, with a 2.25% increase, while other segments like electronic components saw a slight decline [21].

Group 1 - The report highlights the resilience of the U.S. non-farm employment data for April 2025, with an increase of 177,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 138,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [5][6][8] - The service sector added 156,000 jobs, but there was a marginal slowdown, particularly in retail, dining, and accommodation sectors, which showed signs of weakness [6][7] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy contracted in Q1 2025, with a GDP decline of -0.3%, attributed to increased trade deficits, slowing fiscal spending, and pessimistic consumer expectations [11][12][13] Group 2 - The company "千味央厨" (Qianwei Yangchu) reported a revenue of 1.868 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 1.71% year-on-year, and a net profit of 84 million yuan, down 37.67% [16][17] - The report notes that the company is experiencing a product adjustment phase, with a significant increase in revenue from prepared dishes, which rose by 273.39% due to the growing demand for standardized ingredients [17][19] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to increased expenses that have pressured profitability, with a gross margin of 23.66% and a net margin of 4.44% for 2024 [18][19] Group 3 - The report discusses the historical context of oil price wars, noting that recent declines in oil prices are influenced by Saudi Arabia's strategy to regain market share and the potential for oversupply [23][24] - It emphasizes that while oil prices are under pressure, the long-term fundamentals may still support prices due to low global inventories and limited capital expenditure by producers [24]

Employment Data - In April 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, exceeding the expected 138,000[2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with expectations[2] - The labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.6% from 62.5%[2] Sector Performance - The service sector added 156,000 jobs, a decrease from 161,000 in March[2] - Retail jobs decreased by 2,000, contrasting with an increase of 22,000 in March[2] - Transportation and warehousing saw a significant rise, adding 29,000 jobs compared to 2,700 in March[2] Wage Growth - Private sector hourly wages rose by 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.3%[2] - Manufacturing wages saw a decline of 0.3%, a drop from a 0.8% increase in the previous month[2] - The information consulting sector experienced a notable increase in wages, rising from -0.1% to 1.0%[2] Immigration Impact - In April, the number of immigrants decreased by 825,000, and immigrant employment fell by 410,000[2] - The decline in immigrant numbers has led to a higher employment rate among remaining immigrants[2] Market Implications - The resilience in the job market may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with market expectations pushing the timeline to July with a probability of 55.2%[2]