[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月27日 超配 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 商俭 S0630525060002 shangjian@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -25% -11% 2% 15% 29% 42% 56% 24-06 24-09 24-12 25-03 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [1.table_product] 人形机器人推动丝杠需求，国内厂 商突破量产壁垒——机械设备行业 深度报告 1.人形机器人推动丝杠需求，国内厂 商突破量产壁垒——机械设备行业 深度报告 [Table_NewTitle] 1-5月外销表现优于内销，重视具身智能 率先落地物流场景机遇 ——机械设备行业简评 [table_main] 投资要点： 机 械 设 备 [table_invest] ➢ 事件：根据中国工程机械工业协会发布数据，2025年5月叉车整体销量为12.35万台，同比 增长11.8%。其中，国内销量7.91万台，同比增长9.25%；海外销量4.43万台，同比增长 16.6%。2025年1-5月叉车累计 ...

Group 1: Insurance Industry Insights - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has issued guidelines to prevent "involution-style dividends" and establish a dynamic management mechanism for dividend levels, aiming to enhance the sustainable operation of dividend insurance [6][7][8] - The guidelines require insurance companies to prudently determine annual dividend levels based on asset allocation characteristics and actual investment returns, avoiding arbitrary increases that disrupt market order [6][7] - The introduction of a dual-track dynamic adjustment mechanism for dividend levels is expected to improve asset allocation capabilities and risk management within insurance companies, enhancing their overall risk resistance and profitability [7][8] Group 2: Capital Market Trends - The securities sector has seen a significant increase, with the Shenwan Securities Index rising by 5.55% as of June 25, driven by strong performances from companies like Dongfang Caifu and Guosheng Jin控 [11][12] - The approval of a virtual asset trading license for Guotai Junan International has catalyzed interest in the "stablecoin" theme, indicating a supportive regulatory environment for the securities sector [12][13] - The ongoing mergers and acquisitions within the A-share brokerage sector are expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive innovation, with a focus on the performance outcomes of these integrations [13][14] Group 3: Hengxuan Technology (688608) Overview - Hengxuan Technology specializes in the research, design, and sales of low-power wireless computing SoC chips, with a focus on becoming a leading domestic Bluetooth audio SoC provider [16][17] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.43% in revenue from 2020 to 2024, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 999.5 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.25% [16][17] - Hengxuan's products are widely used in smart wearable and smart home devices, and the company is positioned to benefit from the growth in the AIOT market and increasing market share [16][18] Group 4: Market Opportunities for Hengxuan Technology - The global TWS Bluetooth earphone market is projected to reach 330 million units in 2024, with Hengxuan Technology holding a 16.22% market share among major chip suppliers [17][18] - The wearable device market is expected to grow significantly, with Hengxuan's revenue from wearable devices projected to increase from 290 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 1.045 billion yuan in 2024 [18][19] - The smart speaker market is anticipated to stabilize and grow, with Hengxuan's chips supporting key functionalities in smart speakers, benefiting from the increasing demand [19][20] Group 5: Investment Recommendations for Hengxuan Technology - The company is rated "Buy" based on its advanced 6nm process technology and potential for further market penetration in AI headphones, smartwatches, and smart glasses [21] - Projected revenues for Hengxuan Technology are expected to reach 4.69 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 43.72%, and net profits projected at 839 million yuan [21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a dynamic management mechanism for dividend levels in the insurance sector, aiming to prevent "involution-style" competition in dividend payouts. This is in response to regulatory guidance aimed at enhancing the sustainable operation of dividend insurance products [4]. - The establishment of a dual-track dynamic adjustment mechanism for dividend levels is expected to improve asset allocation capabilities and risk management within insurance companies, thereby enhancing their overall risk resilience and profitability [4]. - The report anticipates a significant reduction in the preset interest rate for insurance products, with a large-scale adjustment expected to begin in Q3 2025, which could stimulate policy sales [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Stablecoins and policy catalysts are expected to boost the brokerage sector, with ongoing attention to related thematic investment opportunities [4]. - The optimization of the brokerage classification evaluation system is encouraged to enhance business efficiency and specialization [4]. - Recent regulatory changes in the classification of securities companies and enhanced supervision of dividend insurance are noted [4]. Regulatory Developments - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued guidelines to strengthen the linkage between asset and liability management in the insurance sector, emphasizing prudent determination of dividend levels [4]. - Companies are required to align their dividend levels with historical performance and capital strength, ensuring that proposed dividend levels do not exceed the average financial investment returns of the past three years [4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the life insurance liability transformation is ongoing, with a gradual reduction in workforce size and significant improvements in productivity [4]. - The "Nine Policies" initiative is expected to create a new starting point for the capital market, with a positive outlook for equity markets and a potential alleviation of interest margin loss risks due to the anticipated reduction in preset interest rates [4]. - The insurance sector is currently viewed as undervalued, presenting opportunities for strategic allocation, particularly in large listed insurance companies with strong competitive advantages [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - The securities sector has seen a significant increase, with the Securities II (Shenwan) index rising by 5.55% as of June 25, 2025, driven by strong performances from companies like Dongfang Caifu, Guosheng Jinkong, and Tianfeng Securities, which hit the daily limit [5][6] - The approval of Guotai Junan International to provide virtual asset trading services marks it as the first Chinese securities firm to offer comprehensive virtual asset services, aligning with the current market interest in stablecoin themes [6][20] - The ongoing capital market reforms and the recent "1+6" measures announced at the Lujiazui Forum are expected to enhance market activity, with a trading volume of 1.5 trillion yuan laying a foundation for the growth of securities firms [6][8] Group 2: Company Focus - Hengxuan Technology (688608) - Hengxuan Technology specializes in the research, design, and sales of low-power wireless computing SoC chips, achieving a significant milestone with its products now utilizing 6nm process technology, aiming to become a leading player in the domestic Bluetooth audio SoC market [11][12] - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.43% in revenue from 2020 to 2024, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 999.5 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.25% [11][12] - Hengxuan Technology's chips are widely used in smart wearable and smart home devices, with a strong focus on high-performance brand clients, which has created a competitive advantage and customer loyalty [12][13] Group 3: Growth Potential and Market Trends - The global TWS (True Wireless Stereo) earphone market is projected to reach 330 million units in 2024, with Hengxuan Technology holding a 16.22% market share in the first half of 2024, indicating a strong competitive position [12][13] - The wearable device market is expected to see significant growth, with global shipments projected to reach 193 million units in 2024, and Hengxuan Technology is well-positioned to benefit from this trend by deepening partnerships with major Android brand clients [13][14] - The smart speaker market is anticipated to stabilize and grow, with Hengxuan Technology's chips supporting voice interaction and low power consumption, further enhancing its market presence [14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report initiates coverage on Hengxuan Technology with a "Buy" rating, forecasting revenues of 4.69 billion yuan, 6.18 billion yuan, and 7.87 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 839 million yuan, 1.15 billion yuan, and 1.54 billion yuan [16] - The company is expected to continue expanding its product offerings in AI headphones, smartwatches, smart bands, and smart glasses, which will further enhance its growth potential [16]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the optimization of the securities company classification evaluation system to encourage business refinement and efficiency improvement, aligning with the regulatory framework to enhance resource allocation [6][7][8] - The revision aims to support differentiated and specialized development for small and medium-sized institutions by reducing redundant scoring and enhancing operational efficiency metrics [7][8] - New special indicators have been introduced to guide securities companies in optimizing their investment structures and improving service capabilities for the real economy and investors [7][8] Group 2 - The food and beverage sector showed a slight decline of 0.12% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.33 percentage points, with beer stocks performing relatively well [11][12] - The white liquor index rebounded as regulatory corrections improved market sentiment, with major companies implementing refined strategies to adapt to market demands [12][14] - The beer industry is expected to recover as the peak consumption season approaches, supported by improving terminal sales and favorable consumption policies [13][14] Group 3 - The report highlights the growing demand for planetary roller screws driven by humanoid robots, with domestic manufacturers overcoming mass production barriers [15][16] - The global market for planetary roller screws was valued at $1.27 billion in 2022, indicating significant growth potential as humanoid robot production accelerates [15][16] - Domestic companies are seizing opportunities in the planetary roller screw market as European manufacturers lag in expansion, creating a favorable environment for local firms [16][17] Group 4 - The energy metals sector is showing positive short-term technical conditions, having broken through multiple key resistance levels, indicating a potential upward trend [19][20][21] - The index has formed a "head and shoulders" bottom pattern, suggesting a solid foundation for future growth, with significant upward potential if it breaks through the neckline resistance [21]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the planetary roller screw industry, particularly driven by the increasing demand from humanoid robots and the potential for domestic manufacturers to capture market share from established European firms [3][59]. Core Insights - Planetary roller screws are gaining traction in various industries due to their compact size, high efficiency, and durability, making them a preferred choice in automotive, engineering machinery, machine tools, robotics, medical devices, and oil and gas sectors [3][10]. - The humanoid robot market is expected to significantly boost the demand for planetary roller screws, with projections indicating a need for 14 million units by 2029, translating to a market expansion of 11.2 billion yuan [3][52]. - European manufacturers currently dominate the high-end market for planetary roller screws, but domestic companies are accelerating their development and production capabilities, creating opportunities for market entry [3][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Barriers to Entry in Planetary Roller Screw Production - The production of planetary roller screws involves high barriers due to the need for specialized materials, mature processes, and advanced grinding equipment, resulting in high manufacturing costs and challenges in scaling production [3][18][23]. 2. Acceleration of Humanoid Robot Production - The report highlights the rapid development of humanoid robots, with major companies announcing mass production plans, which will drive the demand for planetary roller screws significantly [3][27][39]. 3. European Manufacturers Lead the High-End Market - In 2022, the top four manufacturers in the planetary roller screw market in China were Rollvis (Switzerland), GSA (Switzerland), Rexroth (Germany), and Ewellix (Sweden), with market shares of 27%, 26%, 13%, and 12% respectively [3][59]. 4. Investment Opportunities in Domestic Manufacturers - The report recommends focusing on domestic companies that have secured key clients, possess high-end processing equipment, and emphasize R&D innovation, such as Hengli Hydraulic, Wuzhou New Spring, Best, Beite Technology, Shuanglin Co., Qinchuan Machine Tool, and Huachen Equipment [3][59].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the revision of the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" aimed at optimizing resource allocation and enhancing the operational efficiency of securities firms. This revision is based on previous regulations and emphasizes the importance of service to the real economy and national strategies [7][8]. - The report suggests that the future specifics of high-quality development will be a major driving force for the long-term growth of the capital market, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions, high "financial inclusion rate," and improvements in ROE as key investment themes [8]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has solicited opinions on the draft revision of the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which aims to enhance the evaluation framework and promote the functional role of securities companies [7]. - The revision includes the integration and optimization of business development indicators, supporting differentiated and specialized development for small and medium-sized institutions [7]. Business Development Indicators - The report outlines changes in scoring for business development, including the cancellation of revenue ranking bonuses to reduce redundancy and an increase in the emphasis on ROE to guide firms towards efficient development [7][12]. - New specialized indicators have been added to align with regulatory goals, such as promoting long-term capital market participation and wealth management services [7]. Risk Management and Compliance - The revised regulations introduce stricter penalties for major violations, allowing for direct downgrades to D class for companies with significant legal infractions, thereby encouraging proactive error correction and risk management [7][9]. - Adjustments in scoring for self-regulatory organization penalties have been made to enhance the deterrent effect of disciplinary actions [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on large securities firms with strong capital and stable operations as potential investment opportunities, particularly in the context of the anticipated regulatory changes and market dynamics [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly high-end liquor and regional leaders, is expected to stabilize and rebound due to policy corrections and improving market sentiment. The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with a focus on high-end products and strategic upgrades by leading companies [5][11]. - The beer sector is approaching its peak season, with improved sales performance expected as the weather warms up and consumption policies continue to support demand. The report notes a slight year-on-year increase in beer production in May 2025 [5][26]. - The snack food segment is experiencing high growth and favorable market conditions, driven by strong product categories and new distribution channels. The report emphasizes the potential of healthy snack options like konjac products [5]. - The report also discusses the dairy sector, indicating a potential recovery in supply-demand dynamics as production decreases and summer demand for cold dairy products rises [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.12% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.33 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 sectors [5][11]. - The beer sub-sector performed well, with a 1.91% increase [5]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - White liquor prices have shown a downward trend, with notable decreases in the prices of high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [20][21]. - Beer production in May 2025 was 3.584 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [26]. - Dairy prices are under pressure, with fresh milk averaging 3.04 yuan per kilogram, marking a year-on-year decrease of 7.90% [28]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 13.4% year-on-year decline in white liquor production in May 2025, while beer production showed a slight decline of 0.3% year-to-date [51]. - E-commerce sales for alcoholic beverages have surged, with a 39.6% increase during the Tmall 618 sales event, indicating a shift towards self-consumption [52]. 4. Core Company Developments - Key companies like Guizhou Moutai and Qingdao Beer are distributing significant cash dividends to shareholders, reflecting strong financial performance [53].

Core Viewpoints - The energy metals sector has broken through multiple significant resistance levels, emerging from a medium-term downtrend formed over the past two years and is now above a long-term downtrend line that has persisted for four years. Compared to historical highs, the index remains at a relatively low level. The index has formed a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern over the past two years, solidifying its base. Currently, the index is approaching the neckline resistance of the "head and shoulders" pattern, which is also a convergence zone of multiple short-term resistances, indicating potential volatility due to the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. However, the short-term technical conditions of the index are gradually improving, and after appropriate fluctuations, breaking through the neckline and nearby resistances is likely. Once the neckline and surrounding resistances are effectively breached, the upward space between the index and historical highs may open up [1]. Energy Metals Sector Analysis - The energy metals sector has broken through multiple important resistance levels. On June 23, 2025, the sector closed with a long bullish candlestick, breaking through the top resistance of a trading range that had formed over 40 trading days, the 555-day long-term moving average resistance, and the medium-term downtrend line formed by two highs in November 2024 and March 2025. The index is now above the long-term downtrend line formed by the highs in September 2021 and July 2022, indicating a reversal of the long-term downtrend that has persisted since the historical high in September 2021 [2][4][8]. - The short-term technical conditions of the index are gradually improving. On June 23, 2025, the index surged with volume that was approximately double that of the previous trading day, exceeding the single-day volume of the past 50 trading days. Currently, the 5-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, trending upwards. The index is above the weekly moving average system, and although the short-term weekly moving averages have not yet formed a bullish arrangement, the index is above the 20-week moving average, with the 5-week moving average having crossed above the 10-week moving average, both trending upwards. The 60-week moving average has also begun to trend upwards, indicating positive signs in the weekly moving averages. The daily KDJ and MACD indicators are in a bullish crossover, and there is a cross-cycle bullish crossover among the daily, weekly, and monthly MACD indicators, suggesting favorable short-term technical indicators [2][6]. - The index remains at a relatively low level, with a solidified base and significant upward potential. Since the historical high in September 2021, the index has experienced a decline of over 80% by June 23, 2025, accumulating buying power for a potential rebound. The index has broken through the long-term downtrend line formed by the highs in September 2021 and July 2022, reversing the long-standing downtrend. Since August 2023, the index has been constructing a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern over the past two years, with the "head" being a double bottom. The index is currently approaching the neckline resistance, and if it effectively breaks through this level, there is significant upward potential towards the historical high in September 2021 [2][8]. - The index is currently under multiple short-term resistance levels, indicating potential volatility in the short term. Although the index has broken through multiple important resistances, there are still short-term resistances that need to be overcome. The index is at the neckline resistance, which is also a previous high point and a Fibonacci retracement level of 0.191. Due to the multiple resistance levels, there may be short-term fluctuations as bulls and bears contend. However, the volume, price, indicators, and trends are gradually improving, and after sufficient fluctuations, breaking through the neckline and nearby resistances is likely. Once these resistances are effectively breached, the upward space may open up [2][8].

Group 1: Pet Food Industry Insights - The pet food market continues to grow, with a total sales volume of 75 billion yuan during the "618" shopping festival, representing a year-on-year increase of 36% [6][10] - Domestic brands dominate the market, with notable performances from brands like MaiFuDi and FreyGat, which have shown significant rankings improvements on platforms like Tmall and JD [7][8] - The overall pet consumption market is projected to reach 331.1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [10] Group 2: Chemical Industry Analysis - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Iran and Israel, are expected to drive up oil prices due to concerns over supply disruptions [13][14] - The closure of the hexamethylenediamine plant by a major company may lead to increased prices for nylon 66, as supply diminishes in the Asia-Pacific region [14] - The chemical sector has seen a decline in indices, with the basic chemical index dropping by 2.49% recently [15] Group 3: Mechanical Equipment Sector - The demand for harmonic reducers is surging, particularly in the industrial robotics sector, which accounts for 75% of their usage [18][19] - The domestic market for harmonic reducers reached 2.49 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations for significant growth as humanoid robots enter mass production [18][19] - Domestic manufacturers are poised to capture more market share due to technological advancements and production capacity expansions [20][21] Group 4: Pharmaceutical and Medical Devices - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a decline of 4.35% recently, but innovation in drug development remains a core investment focus [22][24] - Recent policy changes from the National Medical Insurance Administration aim to expedite the approval process for innovative drugs, which could enhance market opportunities [23][24] - The medical device sector is also set to benefit from new policies supporting high-end medical equipment innovation [24] Group 5: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The non-banking financial index fell by 1.1%, with a notable divergence between securities and insurance indices [27] - Recent regulatory changes in the classification of securities companies are expected to promote high-quality development and support smaller institutions [28] - The insurance sector is seeing increased regulatory scrutiny on dividend insurance, which may alleviate concerns over profit margins [29][30]