Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The diffusion index is used to monitor the critical points of market changes and predict potential turning points in the micro-cap stock index[5][35] - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated based on the relative price changes of constituent stocks over a specific time window. For example, if the horizontal axis is 0.95 and the vertical axis is 15 days, a value of 0.19 indicates that if all constituent stocks drop by 5% after 5 days, the diffusion index value will be 0.19. The formula and methodology are not explicitly provided but rely on historical and predictive data of constituent stocks[35][37] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying market turning points and provides actionable signals for left-side and right-side trading strategies[5][36] 2. Model Name: First Threshold Method (Left-Side Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: This method triggers a sell signal when the diffusion index reaches a predefined threshold, indicating a left-side trading opportunity[5][39] - **Model Construction Process**: The first threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 8, 2025, when the diffusion index reached 0.9850[39] - **Model Evaluation**: It is suitable for early identification of market risks but may lead to premature signals in volatile markets[5][39] 3. Model Name: Delayed Threshold Method (Right-Side Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: This method delays the sell signal until the diffusion index reaches a lower threshold, providing a more conservative approach[5][41] - **Model Construction Process**: The delayed threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 15, 2025, when the diffusion index reached 0.8975[43] - **Model Evaluation**: It reduces the risk of false signals but may miss early opportunities[5][43] 4. Model Name: Dual Moving Average Method (Adaptive Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: This method uses two moving averages to adapt to market trends and trigger trading signals[5][44] - **Model Construction Process**: The dual moving average method triggered a sell signal on June 11, 2025[44] - **Model Evaluation**: It balances between early and delayed signals, making it suitable for dynamic market conditions[5][44] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Model - Current value: 0.70[35] - Predicted low point: Next Wednesday, with a potential cumulative decline of over 6%[5][36] 2. First Threshold Method - Triggered sell signal: May 8, 2025, at 0.9850[39] 3. Delayed Threshold Method - Triggered sell signal: May 15, 2025, at 0.8975[43] 4. Dual Moving Average Method - Triggered sell signal: June 11, 2025[44] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: PE_TTM Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio based on trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.187 (historical average: 0.018)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power for the week, significantly outperforming its historical average[4][15] 2. Factor Name: Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the profitability of constituent stocks[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.177 (historical average: 0.023)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Shows robust performance, exceeding historical averages[4][15] 3. Factor Name: Unadjusted Stock Price Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the raw stock price without adjustments for splits or dividends[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.13 (historical average: -0.017)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Positive performance, reversing its historical negative trend[4][15] 4. Factor Name: Dividend Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dividend yield of stocks[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.118 (historical average: 0.022)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Consistently outperforms its historical average[4][15] 5. Factor Name: PB Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the inverse of the price-to-book ratio[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.116 (historical average: 0.034)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Strong weekly performance, well above historical norms[4][15] --- Factor Backtesting Results Top 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. PE_TTM Inverse Factor: 0.187[4][15] 2. Profitability Factor: 0.177[4][15] 3. Unadjusted Stock Price Factor: 0.13[4][15] 4. Dividend Yield Factor: 0.118[4][15] 5. PB Inverse Factor: 0.116[4][15] Bottom 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. 1-Year Volatility Factor: -0.188[4][15] 2. 10-Day Free Float Turnover Factor: -0.166[4][15] 3. Residual Volatility Factor: -0.143[4][15] 4. Trading Volume Factor: -0.142[4][15] 5. 10-Day Total Market Cap Turnover Factor: -0.139[4][15]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced slight declines, with most major indices falling, except for the ChiNext Index, which was the only major index to rise, primarily driven by blue-chip stocks [3][12] - The performance of the A-share market was influenced by external political events, including the Israel-Iran conflict, which heightened global market risk aversion and led to significant increases in gold and oil prices [3][16] - The overall market did not establish a new trading theme, continuing the pattern of new consumption stocks rising and then retreating, alongside the valuation recovery of innovative pharmaceuticals [3][16] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index showed slight recovery, with a 7-day moving average of 4.6% as of June 14, up from -4.0% on June 7, indicating a shift from persistent pessimism to a more normalized trading phase [4][17] - The financing transaction volume in the A-share market has seen a notable decline, reflecting a decrease in investor enthusiasm, although there was a slight net inflow this week [20] - The current state of industry rotation is characterized by high speed and low intensity, suggesting a market environment prone to sideways movement [21][23] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The report anticipates continued market volatility, with external factors such as US tariffs and the Israel-Iran conflict potentially causing further impacts on the A-share market [4][30] - The A-share market may see upward movement during the internal policy window in July, with expectations for stimulus policies in consumption and real estate sectors [4][30] - The recommendation is to focus on dividend stocks with good value, particularly in sectors like banking, transportation, and utilities, while waiting for clearer internal demand stimulus policies to catalyze traditional consumption trades [5][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Leverage can be more aggressive, and positions can be heavier. The certainty of loose funds allows for a more active leverage strategy, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [2][3][17]. - The growth of financing is mainly from the government sector, and the gap between deposit and loan growth rates is still being repaired. The risk of the bank's liability side has been significantly alleviated, reducing the risk of liquidity tightening [2][9]. - The two operations of the repurchase agreement mainly aim to reduce uncertainty, and the change in the scale of medium - and long - term liquidity injection this month may be small [2][11]. - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not reached its end [2][13]. - Seasonal fluctuations in capital prices will still exist. In the first and middle of July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. Summary by Directory 1 Leverage can be more aggressive - **Previous Views Summary** - There is a possibility that the capital market will be more loosely liquid than expected. There is a chance that the capital price center will be below 1.4%. - The reasonable pricing center for the NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks after the decline of capital prices in the future may be 1.6%. Currently, 1.7% is too high, and it has obvious allocation value, but it is difficult for the CD interest rate to decline significantly in June. - The main line of the bond market is the downward repair of liability costs and the return repair of position losses, which requires time. After the interest rate reaches a relatively low level, trading often fluctuates between "anticipating the market" and "falling behind" [8]. - **Financing and Credit Situation** - In May, credit growth was still weak. Corporate sector credit increased less year - on - year, and the long - term credit of the household sector showed a stable trend. Corporate sector bond financing increased slightly year - on - year, possibly related to the opening of the bond technology board. Government bonds increased by 236.7 billion year - on - year, and the growth of financing still relied on the government sector [9]. - **Function of Repurchase Agreement Operations** - The two operations of the repurchase agreement this month totaled an injection of 1.4 trillion, but considering the possible 1.2 trillion maturity in the same month, the net injection scale for the whole month is not large. The MLF and the repurchase agreement are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the space for large - scale incremental injection is decreasing. These two operations should be considered comprehensively [11]. - **Factors Affecting Capital Price Center** - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity. After April, the liability risk problem of large banks has been significantly alleviated. The performance of the capital market in the past two weeks has verified that the large banks' lending capacity has recovered, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not ended [13]. - **Seasonal Fluctuations of Capital Prices** - In mid - June, there is the impact of the tax period, and in late June, the cross - quarter factor will dominate the trend of capital prices. Near the end of the month, fiscal funds may be released to supplement liquidity. In July, the tax period is relatively large, and the fluctuation of the capital market may increase. Before that, in early and mid - July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. - **Bond Market Strategy** - Recently, the short - end and long - end of the bond market still have downward space, but the long - end space is still limited. The 1 - year treasury bond has returned to the recent low, and it is not difficult for it to break through downward. The downward range of short - end treasury bond interest rates can be larger than that of other short - end varieties, which may bring some changes to the flat treasury bond yield curve. Therefore, the leverage strategy can be more aggressive, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [3][17].

证券研究报告：医药生物|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-16 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 7895.79 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 8490.25 | | 52 周最低 | | 6070.89 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -14% -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡明子 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110001 Email:caimingzi@cnpsec.com 分析师:龙永茂 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110002 Email:longyongmao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 推荐标的：英科医疗、迈普医学、怡和嘉业、微电生理、 拱东医疗、派林生物、益丰药房、大参林、康臣药业、佐力药 业、桂林三金、天士力、新里程、美年健康、国际医学。 《政策支持上市公司通过并购重组高 质量发展，行业整合持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 250.69 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 9.69% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.40 billion yuan, down 13.85% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed a net profit increase of 35.52% year-on-year, driven by higher sales volumes of key products [7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and enhancing its international presence, with significant investments in R&D amounting to 733 million yuan, focusing on basic research and new technologies [7]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31.44 billion yuan, 33.67 billion yuan, and 37.45 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.10, 1.18, and 1.31 yuan [7][8]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 10.68 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 305 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.8% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.36 [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to see a revenue increase in the coming years, with projected revenues of 272 billion yuan in 2025, 302 billion yuan in 2026, and 321 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 8.32%, 11.16%, and 6.45%, respectively [8][9]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to grow from 46.92 billion yuan in 2024 to 58.90 billion yuan in 2027, indicating improving operational efficiency [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6][9][12]. Core Views - The demand for nitrocellulose is increasing while supply is contracting, positioning the company as a leading global player in this market, which is expected to benefit significantly from the growing ammunition demand [7][8]. - The company's financial performance is showing signs of recovery, with a projected revenue increase of 34% in 2025, reaching 2.61 billion yuan, and a substantial profit growth forecast of 412% [6][9]. - The long-term prospects for military nitrocellulose exports and its application in environmentally friendly fireworks are promising, indicating potential new market opportunities [8][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 13.20 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 7.2 billion yuan [4]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue in 2024, with a total revenue of 1.947 billion yuan, down 9.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of -28.31 million yuan, a decrease of 150.99% [6][12]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 2.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 140 million yuan [6][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.61 billion yuan, 3.21 billion yuan, and 3.87 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 137 million yuan, 300 million yuan, and 428 million yuan [12][13]. - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in its profit margins, with EBITDA projected to rise from 39.38 million yuan in 2024 to 533.19 million yuan by 2027 [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the semiconductor components sector, focusing on mechanical and electromechanical components as well as gas transmission systems, which have been validated by major domestic and international clients and are in mass production [2][3] - The company anticipates a revenue of 3.04 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.14%, with net profit expected to reach 203 million yuan, a 20.13% increase [2][9] - The company is implementing a large customer strategy, with 69.75% of its revenue coming from mainland China, which has grown by 43.95% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its global footprint with production bases in key regions, including Shenyang, Nantong, Beijing, and Singapore, to enhance service delivery and meet customer demands [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 52.51 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 16.1 billion yuan and a total share capital of 3.06 billion shares [1] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.025 billion yuan, 5.350 billion yuan, and 7.030 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 213 million yuan, 412 million yuan, and 646 million yuan [7][9] - The company expects a gross margin improvement from 25.8% in 2024 to 29.6% in 2027 [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing acquisitions to enhance its semiconductor component platform, including a planned acquisition of Beijing Yisheng Precision Semiconductor Co., Ltd. for up to 800 million yuan [6] - The company is also investing in Zhejiang Poxin Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. to gain a stake in the international gas transmission system manufacturer Compart, aiming to leverage its technology and global supply chain [6]

个股表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 41% 47% 扬杰科技 电子 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 扬杰科技(300373) 员工持股计划激励成长 l 投资要点 发布最新员工持股计划，充分彰显信心。公司发布最新一期持股 计划，该计划拟持有的标的股票数量不超过 342.1105 万股，约占本 员工持股计划草案公布日公司股本总额的 0.63%，持股计划设立时资 金总额不超过 1.63 亿元，总人数不超过 500 人，其中董监高获授份 额占本员工持股计划的 8.47%，股票来源为公司回购专用账户回购的 扬杰科技 A 股普通股股票。标的股票的锁定期为 36 个月，解锁持股 计划业绩考核要求需满足以下两个条件之一：1、2027 年营收不低于 100 亿元；2、2027 年净利润不低于 15 亿元。长期来看，通过员工持 股计划绑定核心员工利益，有助于保持核心团队的稳定性，提升公司 经营效率。 | 最新收盘价（元） | 49.30 | | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is advancing in semiconductor precision optics, with a focus on custom and non-custom products driving its business growth. It has developed several industry-first technologies, including a large aperture transmission astronomical observation lens, which enhances China's capabilities in astronomical observation and precise positioning systems [4][5]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 621 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.49 million yuan, marking a return to profitability. The EBITDA reached 152 million yuan, a significant increase of 222.03%, setting a historical high [4][10]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in various markets, including automotive, infrared, and machine vision lenses, with notable revenue growth in these segments [6][7]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 850 million yuan, 1.01 billion yuan, and 1.20 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 45.24 million yuan, 75.66 million yuan, and 100.29 million yuan [8][10]. - The projected growth rates for revenue are 36.74% in 2025, 18.86% in 2026, and 18.54% in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2026 and 2027 are estimated at 64 times and 49 times, respectively, reflecting its growth potential [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is advancing in semiconductor precision optics, with a focus on custom and non-custom products driving its business strategy. It has developed several industry-first technologies, including a large aperture transmission astronomical observation lens, enhancing its global competitive edge. The company is also actively pursuing the integration of dual-use technologies to replace imported lenses in domestic security monitoring [4][5]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 621 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.49 million yuan, marking a return to profitability. The EBITDA reached 152 million yuan, a significant increase of 222.03%, setting a historical record [4][10]. - The company is expected to generate revenues of 850 million yuan, 1.01 billion yuan, and 1.20 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 45.24 million yuan, 75.66 million yuan, and 100.29 million yuan for the same years. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 64 times and 49 times for 2026 and 2027, respectively [8][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 30.30 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 4.9 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 161 million shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 33.8% and a PE ratio of 501.66 [3][4].