证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-08-01 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：美股业绩表现亮眼》 - 2025.07.29 宏观观点 9 月降息悬而未决——7 月美联储议息会议点评 ⚫ 核心观点： 在最新的 FOMC 会议上，美联储决定继续维持联邦基金利率目标 区间在 4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。鲍威尔主席在发布会上的 表态整体偏鹰，他强调当前风险更偏向于通胀，而失业率维持低位反 映劳动力市场状况依然稳健。有两位理事鲍曼和沃勒对此次决议投下 反对票，二人皆主张应当降息 25 个基点，这是三十多年来首次有两 位理事反对，或显示出联储内部在政治压力下出现分歧。 鲍威尔明确表示，尚未就 9 月是否降息作出任何决定，但在此之 前将收到两轮就业与通胀数据，届时委员会将根据最新数据作出判 断。发布会后市场对 9 月降息的预期有所降温，根据 CME Fed Watch ...

证券研究报告 海域金矿投产有望显著增厚公司业绩 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2025-07-31 投资要点 风险提示：金价大幅下跌；海域金矿投产时间不及预期；海域金矿投产后成本高于预期。 请参阅附注免责声明 2 国际领先的黄金矿石提供商：公司是集勘探、开采、选矿、冶炼于一体的综合性矿业集团，前身为 1974 年成立的招远县黄金矿山局。 总部位于"中国金都"山东省招远市。主营业务以黄金为主，金价上行，公司业绩充分释放，2024年公司营业收入为 115.5 亿元，同比增长 37.1%；2024年归母净利润为14.51亿元，同比增长111.3%。 成本控制一贯优异：公司成本控制能力经历了时间考验。2015年，公司矿产金生产成本为135元/g，2024年，矿产金生产成本提升至 231元/g，成本年化提升5.5%。同期沪金年化涨幅超过9%，因此公司矿产金毛利率不断提升，从2015年的44%提升至2024年的59%。 紫金矿业为公司第二大股东：2022年底，紫金矿业以40.6亿元收购复星系持有的招金矿业的20%H股，成为公司第二大股东。目前紫金 矿业通过金山国际持股18.95%。高管团队呈现内部培养为主，紫金入主后，招金 ...

证券研究报告：医药生物 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-07-31 股票投资评级 买入 |上调 个股表现 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 -12% -2% 8% 18% 28% 38% 48% 58% 68% 78% 华康洁净 医药生物 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 33.19 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）1.06 | / 0.71 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）35 | / 23 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 33.19 / 15.69 | | 资产负债率(%) | 57.3% | | 市盈率 | 52.68 | | 第一大股东 | 谭平涛 | 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com l 盈利预测与估值 预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 值分别为 1.52/2.18/3.14 元/股，现价对 应 PE 分别为 21.85/15.23/10.56 倍。给予"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [7][11]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid commercialization and is continuously enhancing its R&D pipeline, with a projected revenue of 200 million yuan in 2024, representing a growth of 56.28% [3][9]. - The company has successfully established business development (BD) deals that optimize cash flow, with two recent agreements totaling over 4.7 billion yuan, which will significantly support future R&D efforts [4][5]. - The company has a differentiated portfolio of ADC and TCE products, with significant potential in its lead candidate ST2 monoclonal antibody for COPD, which is expected to yield promising clinical data in 2025 [5][6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 34.90 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 13.9 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 400 million shares, with 204 million shares in circulation [2]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 63.6% and a negative price-to-earnings ratio of -13.37, indicating current financial challenges [2]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 800 million yuan in 2025, 1.55 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.08 billion yuan in 2027, with significant growth rates projected [9][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to improve from -600 million yuan in 2025 to breakeven in 2027 [9][10]. - The EBITDA is expected to turn positive by 2026, indicating a potential turnaround in operational performance [9][10].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the first deployment of US nuclear weapons in the UK in 17 years, with the B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs being stationed at RAF Lakenheath, enhancing NATO's tactical nuclear capabilities [4][13] - Ongoing conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia have resulted in military engagements, indicating potential geopolitical risks that may affect defense spending and military operations in the region [5][16] - Looking ahead to 2025, the military industry is expected to see a turning point in orders, driven by new technologies and products aimed at improving equipment performance and reducing costs [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: aerospace and "gap-filling" new priorities, including companies like Fihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and others [6][17] - The second theme involves new technologies, products, and market directions with greater elasticity, featuring companies such as Aerospace Intelligence and Guangdong Hongda [6][17] 2. Market Overview - The China Securities Military Industry Index rose by 1.51%, while the Shenwan Military Industry Index increased by 1.28%, indicating a positive trend in the military sector compared to broader market indices [18] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector included Xinguang Optoelectronics (+32.55%) and Boyun New Materials (+25.16%), showcasing significant gains [19][20] 3. Valuation Levels - As of July 25, 2025, the China Securities Military Industry Index stood at 11,987.24, with a PE-TTM valuation of 118.72 and a PB valuation of 3.70, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels [21][24] - The report provides detailed valuation percentiles for various military companies, highlighting significant differences in market performance [24] 4. Data Tracking - The report tracks recent capital increases and stock incentive plans among military companies, indicating ongoing financial activities that may impact stock performance [27][29] - It also notes significant orders in the low-altitude economy sector, with a $1.75 billion order for eVTOL aircraft, reflecting growth opportunities in emerging markets [31][32]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Jianghe Group, expecting the stock to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% within the next six months [2][13]. Core Insights - Jianghe Group has announced a three-year high dividend plan, committing to distribute at least 80% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders or a minimum of CNY 0.45 per share (including tax), whichever is higher, for the years 2025-2027 [5][6]. - The company reported a strong cash flow performance, with operating cash flow of CNY 1.63 billion in 2024, supporting its high dividend payout [6]. - The company has seen a 6.3% year-on-year increase in new orders, totaling CNY 13.69 billion in the first half of 2025, driven by robust demand for curtain walls and photovoltaic buildings, particularly from overseas markets [6][7]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for Jianghe Group are CNY 24.2 billion in 2025 and CNY 26.2 billion in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.1% and 8.0%, respectively [7][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach CNY 6.86 billion in 2025 and CNY 7.57 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 7.7% and 10.2% [7][9]. - The company's PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 12.2X and 11.0X, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [7][9]. Market Position and Strategy - Jianghe Group is expanding its overseas business, establishing a dedicated overseas division and targeting markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, which is expected to drive significant growth in new orders [6][7]. - The company has a strong market position in the curtain wall segment, benefiting from increased market share due to its comprehensive advantages [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tonglian Precision (688210) with a first coverage [1]. Core Views - The rapid evolution of generative AI technology is driving a new wave of hardware innovation in consumer electronics and smart devices. This includes advancements in foldable smartphones, AI personal computers, smart glasses, and wearable devices, which enhance user experience and stimulate consumer demand [4]. - The company is expanding its precision manufacturing capabilities to meet the demand for lightweight and high-performance components, utilizing new materials and technologies such as 3D printing. This positions the company favorably in the market for new smart terminal products [5]. - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 595 million yuan, primarily for a new intelligent manufacturing center focused on lightweight materials, which will enhance its role from a traditional component supplier to a comprehensive technology service provider [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are 1.12 billion yuan in 2025, 1.52 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.10 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits of 101.11 million yuan, 193.90 million yuan, and 329.62 million yuan respectively [7][10]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 44.93% in 2024, followed by 37.62% in 2025, 35.80% in 2026, and 38.30% in 2027 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company has launched its first edge AI co-processor, RK1820/RK1828, designed for edge AI applications, featuring high computing power and bandwidth [5][6] - The AIoT industry is transitioning from version 1.0 to 2.0, benefiting from the emergence of large models and significant intellectual resources [6] - The RK1820 co-processor integrates high-bandwidth on-chip DRAM and multi-core NPU, supporting mainstream model frameworks and providing a universal API for easy development [6] - The company is expanding its automotive electronics segment with the RK-M series automotive-grade SoCs, covering various applications in intelligent vehicles [7] Financial Projections - The projected revenues for the company are 4.35 billion, 5.54 billion, and 6.89 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 1.08 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.79 billion yuan for the same years [7] - The revenue growth rates are expected to be 38.52%, 27.43%, and 24.52% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.57, 3.34, and 4.26 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 162.83 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 68.5 billion yuan [4] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 16.9% and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 114.67 [4]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - As of July 28, 32% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 earnings, with 77% exceeding expectations, up from 73% last year[1] - 62% of companies reported both revenue and net profit exceeding expectations, compared to 48% last year[1] - Q2 revenue growth rate was 5.0% year-on-year, while net profit growth rate was 5.5%, better than last year's 3.1% for non-financial companies[1] Group 2: Market Recommendations - It is suggested to buy on dips in the U.S. stock market, as historical trends show seasonal weakness from September to November[2] - The high yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds may lead to a potential pullback in Q3, but a weaker dollar could enhance S&P 500 earnings[2] Group 3: Risks and Economic Data - Risks include trade negotiations falling short of expectations and escalating tariff conflicts[3] - U.S. existing home sales slightly declined to 3.93 million units in June, falling below the 4 million mark[8] - Initial jobless claims show a slow decline, while continuing claims remain high, indicating increased difficulty in the job market[8]

- NVIDIA launched the OpenReasoning-Nemotron reasoning model series in July 2025, based on the Qwen2.5 architecture, distilled from the 671 billion-parameter DeepSeek R1 0528 model, and available in four parameter scales: 1.5B, 7B, 14B, and 32B. The model aims to support structured tasks such as mathematics, science, and code generation efficiently [12] - The core innovation of OpenReasoning-Nemotron lies in its data distillation strategy, leveraging the NeMo Skills framework to generate 5 million high-quality data trajectories covering mathematical proofs, scientific derivations, and programming solutions. The training process uses supervised fine-tuning (SFT) instead of reinforcement learning, ensuring logical consistency and precision in symbolic reasoning [12] - The model employs the GenSelect algorithm to implement a "heavy reasoning mode," which involves parallel generation of candidate solutions by multiple agents and selecting the optimal answer. For example, the GenSelect@64 on the 32B model improved HMMT math competition scores from 73.8 to 96.7 and enhanced LiveCodeBench scores from 70.2 to 75.3 in code generation tasks [13] - The OpenReasoning-Nemotron series achieved record-breaking results in benchmarks such as GPQA, MMLU-PRO, and AIME24. The 32B model scored 89.2 on AIME24, surpassing OpenAI's o3-high model, while the 7B model scored 78.2, representing a nearly 20% improvement over its predecessor. However, the 1.5B model showed performance degradation to 45.6 due to inconsistencies in handling 32K tokens [15] - The Qwen3-Coder model, developed by Alibaba Cloud's Tongyi Qianwen team, was officially open-sourced in July 2025. It features a 480 billion parameter scale with a native 256K context window and employs a sparse MoE design, activating only 35 billion parameters per inference. The model was trained on a 7.5 trillion token corpus, with 70% of the data being code, covering over 80 programming languages and 20 markup languages [19][20] - Qwen3-Coder achieved a HumanEval pass@1 accuracy of 93.7%, surpassing Claude 3.5's 92.4%. On the SWE-Bench Verified benchmark, it achieved a 31.4% task success rate, exceeding GPT-4's 30.9%. Key innovations include extending the native 256K context to 1M tokens using YaRN technology and integrating execution feedback mechanisms to validate and reward generated code [20] - The GitLab Duo platform, launched in public beta in July 2025, virtualizes traditional software development team roles into specialized AI agent clusters. These agents handle tasks such as requirement planning, code writing, security analysis, testing, and operations management, forming a dynamic collaboration network. The platform automates workflows through the "Flows" feature, enabling developers to input functional descriptions and have agents complete tasks like requirement decomposition, code generation, and testing [33][36] - GitLab Duo integrates with mainstream development environments like VS Code and JetBrains IDEs and plans to introduce a "knowledge graph" feature to enhance agents' understanding of code context. The platform also emphasizes security, employing end-to-end encryption and sandbox environments for code validation [36][37]