Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the principle of price momentum, aiming to capture upward trends in industry performance[26][39] - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated for each industry, reflecting the proportion of stocks within the industry that exhibit positive momentum. The index ranges from 0 to 1, where higher values indicate stronger momentum. The model selects industries with the highest diffusion indices for allocation. For example, as of August 1, 2025, the top-ranked industries included Steel (1.0), Comprehensive Finance (1.0), and Non-Banking Finance (0.999)[27][28] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance over the years. While it achieved significant excess returns in 2021 (up to 25% before September), it experienced notable drawdowns in 2023 (-4.58%) and 2024 (-5.82%) due to its inability to adjust to market reversals[26] 2. Model Name: GRU Factor Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process high-frequency volume and price data, aiming to identify industry rotation opportunities[40] - **Model Construction Process**: The GRU network is trained on historical minute-level data to predict industry factor rankings. The model then allocates to industries with the highest predicted rankings. As of August 1, 2025, the top-ranked industries included Non-Banking Finance (-1.15), Steel (0.7), and Base Metals (0.5)[34][38] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated strong adaptability in short-term scenarios but struggles in long-term or extreme market conditions. Its performance in 2025 has been hindered by concentrated market themes, resulting in difficulty capturing inter-industry excess returns[33][40] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Diffusion Index Model - **Weekly Average Return**: -1.67%[30] - **Excess Return (August)**: -0.44%[30] - **Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: -0.40%[25][30] 2. GRU Factor Model - **Weekly Average Return**: 0.00%[38] - **Excess Return (August)**: 0.16%[38] - **Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: -2.35%[33][38] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Diffusion Index - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the breadth of positive momentum within an industry[27] - **Factor Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated as the proportion of stocks in an industry with positive momentum. For example, as of August 1, 2025, the diffusion index for Steel was 1.0, while for Coal it was 0.23[27][28] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies industries with strong upward trends but may underperform during market reversals[26] 2. Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Utilizes GRU deep learning to rank industries based on high-frequency trading data[40] - **Factor Construction Process**: The GRU network processes minute-level volume and price data to generate factor rankings. For instance, as of August 1, 2025, the GRU factor for Non-Banking Finance was -1.15, while for Steel it was 0.7[34][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in capturing short-term trends but struggles in long-term or highly volatile markets[33][40] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Diffusion Index Factor - **Top Industries (August 1, 2025)**: Steel (1.0), Comprehensive Finance (1.0), Non-Banking Finance (0.999)[27][28] - **Weekly Average Return**: -1.67%[30] - **Excess Return (August)**: -0.44%[30] - **Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: -0.40%[25][30] 2. GRU Industry Factor - **Top Industries (August 1, 2025)**: Non-Banking Finance (-1.15), Steel (0.7), Base Metals (0.5)[34][38] - **Weekly Average Return**: 0.00%[38] - **Excess Return (August)**: 0.16%[38] - **Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: -2.35%[33][38]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the focus on leading chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Yangnong Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, while also highlighting the need to prevent excessive competition in sectors like silicon materials and pesticides [5][6] - The basic chemical sector has shown a decline of 1.46% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 1.75% [6][19] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the basic chemical sector is at 3727.14, with a weekly high of 3806.19 and a low of 2687.54 [2] Weekly Market Performance - The basic chemical sector has a year-to-date performance of 7.87%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which has a gain of 19.74% [19] - This week, the top gainers in the basic chemical sector include Siquan New Materials (up 50.75%), Shangwei New Materials (up 39.37%), and Tiancheng Technology (up 28.83%) [19][20] Price Movements - Key products that saw price increases include chicken seedlings (up 31.86%), oxalic acid (up 14.29%), and liquid chlorine (up 12.72%) [9][25] - Conversely, PVDF powder saw a significant price drop of 15.38%, along with other products like TMA and industrial-grade lithium carbonate [10][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on leading companies in the chemical sector, particularly in the silicon material and pesticide markets, to mitigate risks associated with excessive competition [5][6] - Specific investment ratings for key companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Buy, closing price 60.9, market cap 190.71 billion [12] - Yangnong Chemical: Buy, closing price 68.0, market cap 27.55 billion [12] - Hualu Hengsheng: Buy, closing price 23.8, market cap 50.62 billion [12]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340124010004 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《下半年政府债供给怎么看？》 - 2025.07.10 固收专题 科创债 ETF 做市怎么看？ ——科创债专题之四 20250801 为支持科创债发行，交易所支持的一个重点方向是降低做市门 槛，如上交所将科创债纳入基准做市的发行规模门槛由 20 亿元下 调至 15 亿元，为科创债 etf 提供更大流动性。债券及 ETF 做市模 式如何?做市券流动性和利差机会如何？本文对此进行详细分析。 ⚫ 债券做市制度：两大做市品种，三类做市模式 债券主要分为个券做市和债券 ETF 做市。个券方面，做市商对做 市品种双边买卖报价的单笔申报数量不低于 100 万元面额。基金方 面，上交所要求债券 ETF 做市商最小申报金额为 30 万元，最大买卖 价 0.40%，最小平均每笔申报金额 5 万元，最低集合竞价参与率 80%， 最低连续竞价参与率 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of no less than RMB 448 million in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of no less than 25%. The total revenue, including the income from the entrusted management of maternity centers, is projected to be no less than RMB 520 million, reflecting a growth of no less than 35% compared to the same period in 2024. The company anticipates a net profit of no less than RMB 320 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of RMB 480 million in 2024 [5][6] Company Overview - The company was established in 2017, starting with the first maternity center in Hangzhou, and has positioned itself in the postpartum care market with a high-end focus. It employs a "high-end hotel + professional care" light asset model, collaborating with top hotels to lease space, thus avoiding heavy capital investments typical of traditional standalone models [6][7] - The company has expanded its brand portfolio and global strategy since 2018, creating a pyramid matrix with flagship brand "Saint Bella" targeting ultra-high-net-worth individuals, "Little Bella" aimed at young middle-class consumers, and "Aiyu" focusing on psychological healing needs. It has also acquired the brand "Guanghetang" to enter the functional food sector for women and launched the family care brand "Yujia" to extend services from maternity centers to postpartum recovery and early childhood care, forming a "pregnancy-birth-raising" closed loop [6][7] Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 472 million to RMB 799 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.1%. The core driver of this growth is the maternity center business, which accounts for 85% of total revenue. The adjusted net profit is projected to turn from a loss in 2022 to a profit in 2023 and 2024, with adjusted net profits of RMB 21 million and RMB 42 million respectively [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 1.076 billion, RMB 1.403 billion, and RMB 1.777 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.73%, 30.42%, and 26.65%. The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is RMB 315 million, RMB 406 million, and RMB 478 million, reflecting significant growth [9][11]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal decline in manufacturing sentiment[9] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a return to contraction territory[12] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still within the expansion range[15] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand have weakened, with the supply-demand gap widening in July[9] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in external demand[12] - The marginal consumption propensity of residents is at 65.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points year-on-year, indicating cautious consumer spending[13] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to marginally improve PPI growth, supporting corporate profit expectations[2] - The BCI profit forecast index for July is at 44.26, an increase of 0.48 points, indicating improved profit expectations[18] - If inflation recovery is sustainable in Q3, the capital market may stabilize and trend positively in August[26] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts[27] - The impact of extreme weather on construction and service sectors has been significant, leading to a slowdown in expansion momentum[21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant growth in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of over 26%, indicating a turning point in performance [5]. - The revenue for H1 2025 reached 991 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 117 million yuan, up 14.18% [4]. - The integrated circuit segment showed remarkable performance, with revenue growth of 21.01% [5]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.16 percentage points to 41.88% in H1 2025, with specific segments like testing equipment and integrated circuit services experiencing notable declines in gross margins [6]. - The company expects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 2.316 billion, 2.605 billion, and 2.898 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 290 million, 349 million, and 416 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 14.33%, 12.49%, and 11.26% respectively [8][12]. Business Segments - The testing equipment segment generated 310 million yuan in revenue, a 6.32% increase, while environmental and reliability testing services brought in 487 million yuan, up 5.75% [5]. - The company is actively enhancing its technical capabilities and expanding into emerging fields such as new energy and commercial aerospace, which is expected to provide long-term growth opportunities [7].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the demand for hepatitis B cure remains a blue ocean, with CpAMs and small nucleic acid drugs expected to lead the way in achieving functional cures. The large base of hepatitis B infections in China and the limitations of existing therapies create a pressing need for effective treatments [4][15] - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy System" is expected to enhance the willingness of families to have children, positively impacting related sectors such as pediatric medicine, medical equipment, and maternal health services [6][21][23] - The pharmaceutical sector saw an overall increase of 2.95% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.70 percentage points, with the chemical preparation sector showing the highest growth at 5.48% [25][26] Summary by Sections 1. Hepatitis B Treatment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the significant unmet need for hepatitis B cures in China, with approximately 56 million chronic carriers and a high percentage at risk of severe liver disease [15] - Current approved treatments are limited, with nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) and pegylated interferon-α showing inadequate rates of functional cure [15][16] - New drug classes, including CpAMs and small nucleic acids, are in advanced clinical stages, with companies like GSK and AHB-137 leading the way [17][18] 2. Childcare Subsidy System - The newly announced childcare subsidy will provide annual financial support of 3,600 yuan per child under three years old, starting from January 1, 2025 [21][22] - This initiative is expected to boost sectors related to child healthcare and maternal services, enhancing market opportunities for companies in these fields [23][24] 3. Weekly Performance of Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector's performance this week was marked by a 2.95% increase, with the chemical preparation sector leading at 5.48% [25][26] - The report notes a significant divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with medical devices experiencing a decline of 1.43% [26][32] 4. Beneficiary Stocks - The report identifies several beneficiary stocks across various segments, including innovative drugs (e.g., Innovent Biologics, BeiGene), traditional Chinese medicine (e.g., Jiuzhitang), and medical devices (e.g., Mindray Medical) [8][9][33][40] 5. Market Outlook - The report suggests a positive outlook for innovative drugs driven by overseas expansion and supportive policy developments, with a focus on companies with strong clinical data and market potential [31] - The medical device sector is expected to benefit from upcoming procurement policies and a recovery in demand, particularly for high-end equipment [32][33]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is leading in the innovative treatment of hepatitis B, with its drug GST-HG141 entering Phase III clinical trials, showing significant advantages in suppressing HBV DNA and potentially depleting HBV cccDNA [4]. - Another drug, GST-HG131, has completed Phase II clinical trials and is the only oral HBsAg inhibitor globally, demonstrating rapid HBsAg reduction and is part of a three-drug oral therapy aimed at achieving clinical cure for hepatitis B [5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 454 million, 503 million, and 585 million from 2025 to 2027, with net profits expected to improve from a loss of 49.37 million in 2025 to a profit of 8.84 million in 2027 [6][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 97.00 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 154 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 133 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 1.59 billion shares, with 1.37 billion shares in circulation [3]. - The largest shareholder is Fujian Aohua Group Co., Ltd [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rate of 4.43% in 2024, followed by 2.83% in 2025, and accelerating to 16.11% by 2027 [9]. - The EBITDA is projected to increase significantly from 21.67 million in 2024 to 174.81 million by 2027 [9]. - The net profit margin is expected to turn positive by 2027, with an EPS of 0.06 yuan [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 31.619 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.869 billion yuan, up 15.35% year-on-year [4]. - The increase in performance is primarily attributed to an 8% rise in copper production and an 11% increase in copper prices compared to the previous year [4]. - The company’s copper production for H1 2025 was 91,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.65%, with significant contributions from various mines [5]. - The report highlights improvements in recovery rates for various minerals, indicating operational efficiency [5]. - The smelting capacity is gradually increasing, with significant year-on-year growth in production for copper, lead, and zinc [6]. - The company’s subsidiary, Yulong Copper Industry, achieved a net profit of 3.491 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the overall profitability [6]. - Future growth is supported by ongoing projects and expansions, including the approval of the Yulong Copper Mine Phase III, which is expected to increase production capacity significantly [7][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 56.134 billion yuan, 59.120 billion yuan, and 63.471 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.21%, 5.32%, and 7.36% [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3.857 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 31.56% [11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.62 yuan for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10.31, 9.71, and 9.01 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly due to capacity release and an optimized product mix, with a projected revenue of 835 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.24% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be 22.80 million yuan, an increase of 8,589.54% compared to the previous year, driven by changes in product structure [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from long-term opportunities in high-end markets such as 5G and AI, with a focus on high-margin products [6][8]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 23.54 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 20.7 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 880 million shares, with an asset-liability ratio of 42.2% [3]. - The largest shareholder is Yuan Yi International Limited [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.041 billion yuan, 1.191 billion yuan, and 1.307 billion yuan, respectively [9]. - The expected net profit for these years is 130.65 million yuan, 175.35 million yuan, and 225.06 million yuan, indicating substantial growth [9]. - The company anticipates a gross margin of 17.37% in 2024, an increase of 8.54 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is one of the few domestic manufacturers capable of producing ultra-thin electronic-grade glass fiber cloth, enhancing its competitive edge [5]. - The focus on R&D and cost control is expected to strengthen the company's high-end technology barriers [5]. - The company aims to expand its market share in the mid-to-high-end electronic cloth sector, responding to the growing demand from the PCB industry [6].