1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the lack of some high - frequency data during the festival, there is no forecast value for the current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is下调, with the signal factor at 3.1% (previous value was 3.2%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.9, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 127.8, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 4.9 points [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 40.5, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 points compared to the previous value of 40.7, and the year - on - year decrease remains unchanged at 6.5 points; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 121.9, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 122.0, and the year - on - year increase narrows; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7, remaining the same as the previous value, and the year - on - year increase narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 121.2, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 121.1, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 3.3 points [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month forecast of CPI is 0.0% (previous value was 0.0%); the month - on - month forecast of PPI is 0.0% (previous value was 0.1%) [1][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 163.8, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 163.7, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 7.4 points [1][10]. - The high - frequency financing index is 246.5, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points compared to the previous value of 245.9, and the year - on - year increase rises [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index is Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, Guosheng Securities constructed a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc., and built the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and its sub - indices [8]. - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, due to the lack of some high - frequency data during the festival, there is no forecast value for the current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is下调, with the signal factor at 3.1% (previous value was 3.2%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: Overall Decline in Operating Rates During the Festival - The polyester operating rate is 86.0%, down from the previous value of 87.8%; the semi - tire operating rate is 69.4%, down from the previous value of 72.1%; the full - tire operating rate is 59.6%, down from the previous value of 62.0%; the PX operating rate is 88.4%, down from the previous value of 88.6%; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 50.6 tons, up from the previous value of 47.0 tons [17]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Slight Decline in Commercial Housing Transaction Area - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the current week is 390,000 square meters, down from the previous value of 420,000 square meters; the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 2.1%, up from the previous value of 1.2% [30]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: High - Frequency Index of Infrastructure Investment Remains Stable - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment in the current week is 121.9, down from the previous value of 122.0; the operating rate of petroleum asphalt is 27.4%, down from the previous value of 31.3% [39]. 3.5 Exports: Slight Decline in RJ/CRB Index - The high - frequency export index in the current week is 143.7, the same as the previous value; the RJ/CRB index is 299.9 points, down from the previous value of 300.6 points [46]. 3.6 Consumption: Increase in Average Daily Box Office of Movies - The average daily box office of movies is 166.12 million yuan, up from the previous value of 108.11 million yuan [58]. 3.7 CPI: Slight Increase in Pork Prices - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.7 yuan per kilogram, up from the previous value of 17.5 yuan per kilogram; the latest average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.6 yuan per kilogram, down from the previous value of 5.8 yuan per kilogram; the latest average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.8 yuan per kilogram, the same as the previous value; the latest average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.7 yuan per kilogram, down from the previous value of 17.9 yuan per kilogram [65]. 3.8 PPI: Continued Increase in Spot Price of Copper - The closing price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 673 yuan per ton, down from the previous value of 682 yuan per ton; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 61 US dollars per barrel, down from the previous value of 62 US dollars per barrel; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 12,473 US dollars per ton, up from the previous value of 12,088 US dollars per ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,953 US dollars per ton, up from the previous value of 2,916 US dollars per ton [73]. 3.9 Transportation: Increase in the Number of Executed Flights - The passenger flow of the subway in first - tier cities in the current week is 38.97 million person - times, down from the previous value of 39.96 million person - times; the number of domestic executed flights is 12,548, up from the previous value of 12,353 [81]. 3.10 Inventory: Continuous Decline in Soda Ash Inventory - The soda ash inventory is 1.407 million tons, down from the previous value of 1.469 million tons [89]. 3.11 Financing: Credit Bond Financing Turns from Positive to Negative - The net financing of local government bonds in the week is 17.4 billion yuan, up from the previous value of - 3.2 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is - 61.7 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 40.8 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate is 0.88%, down from the previous value of 0.93%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.75%, down from the previous value of - 0.70% [100].

Recent Key Events - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range to 3.50%-3.75%, with expectations for further cuts in 2026 and 2027 [1][9] - Japan's central bank raised its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, indicating a move towards achieving a 2% inflation target [1][9] Smart Driving Catalysts - On December 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved two L3 autonomous driving models, Changan Deep Blue SL03 and BAIC Alpha S, for trial operations [2][10] - Tesla tested a Robotaxi service in Austin without a safety driver, marking a significant milestone in autonomous driving [2][10] - Waymo is reportedly in talks to raise over $15 billion, with a valuation nearing $100 billion [2][10] Consumer Goods Replacement Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, including subsidies for electric and fuel vehicles, as well as various household appliances [3][11] Current Investment Recommendations - **Beike-W (2423.HK)**: Positioned as a restructuring force in the brokerage service industry, with significant growth potential in the existing real estate market [4][25] - **China Qinfa (0866.HK)**: Benefits from improved coal quality and expected price recovery, with significant growth opportunities [4][28] - **Alibaba-W (9988.HK)**: Steady model iteration and sustained interest in the Qianwen APP, with strong growth in e-commerce and cloud services [4][32] - **Tencent Holdings (0700.HK)**: Launching a mini-program growth plan to support developers in creating AI applications, with strong revenue growth [4][36] - **Kuaishou (1024.HK)**: Recent product launches received positive market feedback, with strong revenue growth driven by e-commerce [4][40] - **Google-A (GOOGL.O)**: Leading capabilities in AI models with continued penetration in edge applications, strong revenue growth in cloud services [4][44] - **Chipsun Technology (1478.HK)**: Expanding optical scenarios and building integrated capabilities, with significant revenue growth [4][49] - **Hesai (HSAI.O)**: Positive shipment growth in lidar products, indicating a strong long-term outlook [4][52]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stocks of the companies analyzed, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the market [3]. Core Insights - The demand for SiC (Silicon Carbide) power devices is driven by the upgrade of power density in AI data center power systems, with a projected market size of approximately $1.15 billion by 2030 in the global 800V data center segment [1]. - Advanced packaging thermal materials and AR (Augmented Reality) glasses are identified as new growth drivers for SiC, with SiC's excellent thermal conductivity making it suitable for applications in advanced packaging and AR optics [2]. Summary by Sections SiC Demand and Market Potential - The upgrade of power systems in AI data centers is categorized into four stages, enhancing the demand for SiC power devices, particularly in the power conversion segment [1]. - The potential market size for SiC and GaN (Gallium Nitride) power devices in 800V AI data centers is estimated to be around $2.56 billion, with SiC devices accounting for approximately 45% of this market [1]. Advanced Packaging and AR Glasses - SiC's superior thermal performance positions it well for use in advanced packaging thermal materials, with companies like NVIDIA planning to adopt SiC in their next-generation products by 2027 [2]. - In the AR glasses sector, SiC's high refractive index allows for improved optical performance, enhancing user experience and image clarity [2]. Key Stocks and Financial Projections - The report highlights key stocks with their respective EPS (Earnings Per Share) projections and PE (Price to Earnings) ratios, indicating strong growth potential for companies like Dongyangguang and Daoshi Technology [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, specifically recommending Huicheng Environmental, Gaoneng Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant policy support for the solid waste recycling industry, particularly through the "Recycling Materials Application Promotion Action Plan," which aims to enhance the supply capacity of recycled materials and establish a comprehensive recycling system by 2030 [1][18]. - The report emphasizes the establishment of three major regional action plans for environmental governance, focusing on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau regions, with specific targets for waste reduction and recycling by 2027 [20][26]. - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by historically low interest rates, is favorable for investing in high-dividend and growth-oriented assets within the environmental sector [2][27]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Investment Views - The "Recycling Materials Application Promotion Action Plan" was officially released, aiming to enhance the supply of recycled materials and expand their application in key industries such as automotive and electronics [1][8]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued three regional action plans for environmental governance, setting clear targets for waste reduction and recycling by 2027 [20][26]. - The environmental sector is currently experiencing low valuations and high growth potential, making it an attractive investment opportunity [27]. Section 2: Market Performance - The environmental sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 0.24%, compared to a 0.13% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [29]. - Key sub-sectors within the environmental industry showed varied performance, with energy-saving and monitoring sectors performing well, while water treatment faced slight declines [29]. Section 3: Key Announcements - The report outlines significant government initiatives aimed at promoting equipment upgrades and recycling, which are expected to drive growth in the environmental sector [40]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated a registration process for environmental monitoring service providers to enhance industry standards and quality [41].

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating of "Increase Holding" for the power equipment industry, indicating a relative market performance increase of 10% or more compared to the benchmark index [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that global energy storage demand is accelerating, with large-scale storage, household storage, and AI-assisted storage all showing significant growth [1]. - The AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) sector is maintaining a favorable outlook, with sustained high demand in North America and a significant increase in domestic demand [1]. - Domestic onshore wind energy is emerging from its cycle, showing steady growth, while both domestic and international offshore wind demand is accelerating [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium battery materials are improving, leading to enhanced profitability for lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, and separators [1]. - New technologies such as solid-state battery validation and mass production are accelerating, with the market share of sodium-ion batteries continuing to rise [1]. Summary by Sections Demand - Global energy storage demand is rapidly expanding, with multiple segments including large storage, household storage, and AI-assisted storage experiencing growth [1]. Market Dynamics - The AIDC sector is expected to maintain a favorable environment, with North American demand continuing to grow and domestic demand entering a new growth phase [1]. - Onshore wind energy in China is showing signs of recovery, while offshore wind demand is increasing both domestically and internationally [1]. Supply and Profitability - The supply-demand balance for lithium battery materials is improving, leading to increased profitability for key components such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate cathodes [1]. Technological Advancements - The report notes advancements in solid-state battery technology and the increasing market share of sodium-ion batteries, indicating a shift towards new energy storage solutions [1].

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 01 05 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 2026 年"抢开局"5 大看点 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—2026 年"抢开局"5 大看点——20260104 【宏观】2026"国补"4 大看点—兼评 12 月 PMI 超季节性回升—— 20251231 【策略】1 月策略观点与金股推荐：配置趋势共识，博弈产业催化—— 20260104 【策略】人民币升值下的投资线索——20260101 【金融工程】上证指数再次确认日线级别上涨——20260104 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周拥挤度指标弱化——20260104 【固定收益】一月债市的风险和机会——20260104 【固定收益】资金平稳跨年，新年政府债发行开启——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20260103 【固定收益】缓和的落地，节后债市修复——20260101 【通信】无光不 AI，硅基光电子引爆新一轮算力革命——20260104 【化工】2026 年度策略：—迎接破晓时刻——20260101 【电新】光伏：反内卷带来行业拐点，新技术引领突围——20260104 【有色金属】2026 ...

Policy Highlights - The focus of recent policies is on "grabbing the start" for 2026, with five key areas of emphasis, including early policy implementation and support for new industries[2] - The 2026 "Two New" policy was released on December 30, 2025, aiming for a smoother subsidy rhythm, with total funding expected to be lower than the 300 billion yuan allocated in 2025[2][8] - The Ministry of Finance announced a new tax policy for personal housing sales, reducing the VAT rate from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, and exempting properties sold after two years in major cities[8][33] Economic Measures - The State Council emphasized the importance of the national water network construction as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, with significant investment and multi-department collaboration required[3][15] - The central bank's fourth-quarter monetary policy meeting indicated a focus on maintaining low financing costs and enhancing policy effectiveness, with potential adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates in Q1 2026[5][24] Local Initiatives - Local governments are proactively implementing measures to support service consumption and financial technology, with provinces like Zhejiang and Guangdong taking the lead in economic recovery efforts[9][36] - Beijing has relaxed housing purchase restrictions, which may prompt other major cities to follow suit, aiming to stabilize the real estate market[11][36] Industry Policies - The China Securities Regulatory Commission finalized the public fund sales fee reform, which is expected to benefit investors by over 50 billion yuan annually[7][25] - The "old for new" policy for 2026 will see a shift from broad subsidies to more targeted support, with total funding likely to be around 250 billion yuan, down from 300 billion yuan in 2025[2][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to recover after the holiday. The mild implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations and the alleviation of banks' institutional indicator pressure may increase the allocation power and drive the bond market to pick up [5][8][14]. - In January, the bond market may remain volatile under supply shocks. The increased supply of government bonds and the potential credit surge at the beginning of the year may crowd out the allocation power and increase capital demand, leading to greater capital fluctuations [5][14]. - After late January, the recovery of the bond market may be smoother. The impact of supply is rhythmic rather than trend - setting, and the overall financing demand is not strong [5][14]. - It is still believed that the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to reach a new low in the first half of the year [5][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Pre - holiday Bond Market Performance - In the last week before the holiday, the bond market weakened again, with interest - rate bonds falling and credit bonds strengthening. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose by 1.0bps and 4.4bps to 1.85% and 2.27% respectively, and short - end interest rates also increased. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - second - tier capital bonds declined slightly, and the yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit dropped 1.0bps to 1.63% [1][8] Factors Contributing to Post - holiday Bond Market Recovery - The new public - fund fee regulations implemented on the last day before the holiday are significantly milder than the draft for comments. It gives partial exemptions on bond - fund redemption fees, eases concerns about the new redemption rules, relieves the redemption pressure on bond funds, and helps the bond market recover [1][8][9] - In the new year, the pressure on banks' indicators eases. According to the final revised document of the Basel framework SPR31, the parallel upward shift in the bank book interest - rate shock scenario is adjusted from 250bps to 225bps, and banks will also get new indicator spaces at the beginning of the year, with the indicator pressure seasonally decreasing. This will enhance the overall allocation power and assist the bond - market recovery [2][9] Factors Causing Pressure on the January Bond Market - Supply - side factors: The issuance of government bonds will start in the new year. The 26 regions that have announced their issuance plans plan to issue 2.1 trillion yuan in the first quarter, lower than the 2.5 - trillion - yuan plan in 2025, but the issuance rhythm is more front - loaded, with 8095 billion yuan planned for January, compared with 3713 billion yuan in January 2025. Also, a 30 - year Treasury bond will be newly issued on January 14th, and a 10 - year Treasury bond will be re - issued on January 9th [2][10] - Credit factors: Credit may surge at the beginning of the year. The proportion of first - quarter credit in the whole - year credit increased from 36.2% in 2020 to 59.8% in 2025, and that of January increased from 17.0% in 2020 to 31.4% in 2025. It may rise to 35% or higher in 2026. The concentrated credit release at the beginning of the year may squeeze bank funds and reduce the allocation power to the bond market. It may also increase capital demand and cause greater short - term capital fluctuations if the central bank fails to inject enough funds [3][11] Rhythmic Nature of Supply Impact - The possible surge in January's credit and social financing is not due to an increase in financing demand. The credit - demand index in the third quarter of 2025 was 52.8%, remaining at a low level for two consecutive quarters, and current credit demand is not strong [4][13] - In 2026, fiscal expansion will be moderate, and the year - on - year increase in government bonds will be significantly lower than in 2025. The concentrated issuance in January means less issuance space later, so the impact is rhythmic rather than trend - setting, and the impact on the bond market will gradually subside after the peak in late January [4][13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to remain sluggish, with new home transactions down by 15.8% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions show a slight increase of 3.9% [11][22] - The report emphasizes that the policy environment is expected to become more stringent, similar to the conditions seen in 2008 and 2014, indicating that the current policy adjustments are still in progress [4] - The report suggests that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a valuable asset class for investment [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to perform better in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report highlights a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment, as these areas are likely to see better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In 2025, the cumulative new home transaction volume in 30 sample cities reached 98.217 million square meters, a decrease of 15.8% year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities accounted for 26.191 million square meters, down 12.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 15.6% to 49.040 million square meters [11] - December 2025 saw a significant drop in new home transactions, with a total of 9.679 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.0% [2][11] Second-Hand Home Transactions - The total area of second-hand home transactions in 2025 was 103.989 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22] - First-tier cities recorded a total of 43.287 million square meters in second-hand home transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year [22] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate index decreased by 0.7% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [34] - The report identifies a total of 28 stocks that increased in value this week, while 82 stocks experienced declines [34] Credit Bond Issuance - In the week of December 29 to January 4, only one credit bond was issued by real estate companies, totaling 250 million yuan, a decrease of 44.82 million yuan from the previous week [45]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a structural growth in the global photovoltaic (PV) market, with domestic installations expected to reach 270-300 GW in 2025, driven by a policy-induced rush in installations [1][2] - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are identified as key growth drivers, contributing significantly to global PV growth, with expectations of 570-630 GW of new installations worldwide [1][26] - The report anticipates a shift in the industry focus from scale expansion to efficiency and value creation, influenced by new policies and market dynamics [2][34] Group 2: Demand Analysis - Domestic demand for PV installations in China showed a 39% year-on-year increase, with a total of 252.87 GW installed from January to October 2025 [11][24] - The report notes a significant surge in installations during May 2025, with a record monthly addition of 92.92 GW, driven by new policy announcements [11][24] - Emerging markets are projected to contribute over 223 GW of new installations in 2025, with notable growth in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America [26][51] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The report discusses a supply-side cleanup in the PV industry, with policies aimed at curbing low-price competition and tightening energy consumption standards [2][34] - The price of polysilicon has rebounded by nearly 50% since July 2025, indicating a recovery in the supply chain and improved profitability for leading companies [2][34] - Technological advancements, such as bifacial cell technology and perovskite solar cells, are expected to enhance efficiency and drive down costs, benefiting upstream material and equipment manufacturers [2][6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three key investment opportunities within the PV industry: price elasticity recovery, new technology adoption, and the commercialization of perovskite solar cells [6][7] - Companies with cost advantages in various segments of the supply chain are recommended for investment, including GCL-Poly Energy, Tongwei Co., and LONGi Green Energy [6][7] - The commercialization of perovskite technology is highlighted as a significant opportunity, with companies like JinkoSolar and LONGi benefiting from this trend [6][7]