1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the government bond supply increment is expected to decrease significantly, with a possible rhythm disturbance rather than a trend impact [3] - The current core pressure lies on the demand side, but the demand side is expected to improve recently [4] - The bond market may remain volatile this month, waiting for possible allocation opportunities at the end of the month [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Quarter Government Bond Issuance Plan - **Treasury Bonds**: The issuance plan in Q1 2026 is similar to that of last year. The issuance scale of single - issue treasury bonds has increased this week, but whether it will continue to be large - scale needs further observation. From 2024 - 2025, the single - issue scale of general treasury bonds is usually lower in Q1 and Q4 and higher in Q2 and Q3 [8] - **Local Bonds**: The planned issuance scale in Q1 2026 may be lower than last year. The issuance rhythm is more front - loaded in January, but the planned issuance amount and net financing in February and March are expected to be lower than last year. The term structure of the disclosed areas has been shortened, but the national - level change needs further observation [13][16] 3.2 Past Government Bond Issuance Characteristics - **Rhythm**: In 2025, the issuance of general treasury bonds and special refinancing bonds was front - loaded, and the issuance rhythm of special bonds was slower than expected. This characteristic is expected to continue in Q1 2026 [23][25] - **Term**: In recent years, the issuance term of government bonds has generally lengthened, with the average duration of local bonds increasing from 11.95 years in 2021 to 15.62 years in 2025, and the issuance term of treasury bonds rising from 6.34 years in 2022 to 8.33 years in 2025 [30] 3.3 Supply Pressure as a Disturbance, Long - term Bond Demand as the Core - **Supply**: The government bond increment in 2026 is expected to decrease significantly, with the impact being more about rhythm rather than trend [33] - **Demand**: The demand for long - term bonds was insufficient at the end of 2025, but the demand side is expected to improve recently. The bond market may be volatile in January and is expected to gradually recover after the supply shock at the end of the month [33][35][36]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The home appliance and light industry in 2026 should focus on four investment themes: domestic demand supported by old-for-new policies, supply-side improvements in the power bank industry, and the rise of niche consumer products in service consumption [1] - The white goods sector is expected to benefit from the old-for-new policy, with a significant increase in consumer spending projected [44] - The overall performance of the light industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a cumulative increase of 24.68% from January to December 2025 [12][15] Group 2: Key Companies - Midea Group is developing a second growth curve through its B-end business, particularly in data center liquid cooling, which shows significant potential [2] - Haier Smart Home is enhancing its operational system through a data-driven approach, improving competitiveness across product, cost, and supply chain [2] - TCL Electronics and other companies in the black goods sector have shown strong performance, benefiting from the old-for-new subsidy policy [21] Group 3: Market Trends - The power bank industry is expected to see improved market conditions due to new regulations, which will raise industry standards and potentially eliminate many low-quality brands [2] - The "Guzi economy" is tapping into emotional consumption needs, with domestic IP supply increasing and consumer spending on IP expected to grow significantly [3] - The folding bicycle market is transitioning from niche to mainstream, with significant growth potential driven by urban mobility needs [3] Group 4: Export and New Markets - The export chain is gradually recovering from tariff disruptions, with a focus on companies that have strong overseas production capabilities to mitigate tariff risks [3] - New product categories, such as pool cleaning robots, have substantial growth potential, with Chinese companies expected to increase their market share [3] - Emerging markets in Africa and Latin America present new opportunities for multinational hygiene product companies [3]

Group 1: Market Conditions - The current real estate market is characterized by an oversupply, with a significant increase in the "套户比" (household-to-unit ratio), which rose from approximately 1.06 in 2020 to about 1.17 in 2023[2][11][16] - As of November 2025, the total inventory of unsold residential properties includes 1.592 billion square meters of properties under construction and 394 million square meters of completed but unsold properties, indicating a high level of existing inventory[2][25][30] - The average decommissioning period for unsold properties under construction is 2.12 years, while for completed properties, it is 1.63 years, both remaining at historically high levels[2][25][31] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize the real estate market, it is crucial to reduce "net supply" through four key policy measures: optimizing land acquisition, revitalizing idle properties for public services, accelerating the replacement of aging housing, and allowing market forces to eliminate ineffective supply in lower-tier cities[1][5][33] - The government has proposed to acquire idle land and existing properties, with plans to store approximately 2.63 million square meters of land, valued at around 676.5 billion yuan, to improve supply-demand dynamics[33][36] Group 3: Price Trends - Second-hand housing prices are seen as more indicative and lead the market compared to new housing prices, reflecting real demand and market sentiment more effectively[6][19] - The current market is in a phase where new housing prices are stabilizing, but the pressure from existing inventory continues to dominate, indicating that a true price stabilization may require a faster clearance of second-hand housing stock[6][19] Group 4: Risk Assessment - The real estate sector faces significant tail risks involving developers, homebuyers, and banks, particularly with small and medium-sized banks under pressure from potential asset quality deterioration due to falling property prices[7][19] - Developers are primarily at risk from liquidity issues and asset impairment, while homebuyers face risks from shrinking asset balances and potential social stability concerns[7][19]

Group 1: Economic Strategy and Focus Areas - Local governments emphasize "strengthening foundations and comprehensive efforts," with a focus on industrial strength rather than expanding domestic demand as prioritized by the central government[2] - Economic provinces prioritize building a modern industrial system, with Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang leading in this focus, while Guangdong and Shanghai emphasize regional development initiatives[3] - Over 10 regions are pushing for enterprises to "go global," with specific industries highlighted such as technology services in Beijing and cultural trade in Jiangsu[5] Group 2: Consumption and Investment - Consumption strategies focus on enhancing service consumption and developing new business models, with cities like Beijing and Zhejiang promoting unique consumption experiences[20] - Local governments are establishing international consumption centers, with cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou aiming to become key consumption hubs[21] - Investment stability is emphasized through project management, with regions like Zhejiang advocating for a project-driven development approach[5] Group 3: Industrial Development and Innovation - Regions are focusing on innovation-driven growth, with a strong emphasis on green and low-carbon development, particularly in traditional industries[6] - Specific industries such as marine economy, aerospace, and low-altitude economy are gaining attention in various provinces, showcasing regional strengths[6] - Local governments are implementing reforms to enhance market access and promote high-level platforms for business development[7] Group 4: Risk Management and Regional Coordination - Risk management strategies are centered on real estate, local debt, and financial institutions, with a focus on controlling new risks and optimizing supply[10] - Regions are actively aligning with national strategies, emphasizing the importance of regional cooperation and development, particularly in major economic zones[11] - Local policies are being adjusted to prevent unhealthy competition and ensure a balanced economic environment, with a focus on standardizing investment and procurement practices[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market declined at the beginning of the year, with the yields of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds rising significantly. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields increased by 3.6bps and 4.3bps respectively to 1.88% and 2.31% compared to the previous week [1][9]. - The decline is due to multiple factors, including the strong performance of the stock market, concerns about bond supply, low central bank bond - buying volume, potential impacts from the surge in credit and social financing at the beginning of the year, and the temporary rebound in inflation data [1][2][9]. - Despite the current pressures, the relative value of bonds is changing. The impact of supply pressure is more about rhythm rather than trend, the inflation rebound's sustainability needs further observation, and the central bank's bond - buying has a cumulative effect and may increase [3][4]. - The stabilizing forces in the bond market are gradually strengthening. The bond market may remain volatile in January, and there may be a configuration opportunity at the end of the month [5][37]. 3. Summary by Related Content Reasons for the Bond Market Decline at the Beginning of the Year - **Stock Market Performance**: The strong stock market at the beginning of the year attracted non - bank funds from the bond market to the stock market and made investors more cautious about bond investment, shortening the duration and reducing long - term bond allocation. The Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 4000 points, rising more than 100 points in the first two trading days [2][9]. - **Supply Concerns**: The large - scale bond issuance in the first week and the significant increase in the single - issue size of treasury bonds raised concerns about future supply. The net financing of government bonds in the first week was 612.7 billion yuan, with treasury bond net financing of 495 billion yuan. The single - issue sizes of 2 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds this week were 175 billion yuan and 180 billion yuan respectively, significantly higher than the second half of last year [2][14]. - **Central Bank Bond - Buying**: The central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds in December was 5 billion yuan, the same as in November, which was lower than market expectations and increased the adjustment pressure on the bond market [2][19]. - **Other Factors**: At the beginning of the year, there may be impacts from the surge in credit and social financing and the temporary rebound in inflation. It is expected that the year - on - year CPI growth in December will expand to 1.1%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI may narrow to - 1.9% [2][22][23]. Analysis of the Mitigating Factors - **Stock - Bond Relative Value**: The stock - bond relative value is changing. The difference between the inverse of the P/E ratio of Wind All - A (excluding financial and petroleum sectors) and the 10 - year bond yield has returned to the level at the beginning of 2023. Bonds may even be more cost - effective compared to the current PMI [3][26]. - **Supply Pressure**: The increase in government bond supply is more of a rhythm issue. The incremental financing in 2026 may be limited compared to 2025. After the peak of credit and government bond issuance at the end of January, the impact on the bond market will gradually fade [3][29]. - **Inflation Rebound**: The temporary rebound in inflation is mainly driven by factors such as rising non - ferrous metal prices and short - term weather - related food price increases. Its impact on interest rates is limited, similar to the situation in 2019 - 2020 [4][30]. - **Central Bank Bond - Buying**: The central bank's bond - buying has a cumulative effect. Even with a monthly purchase of 5 billion yuan, the annual purchase will be about 60 billion yuan. As government bond supply increases, the purchase volume may also increase [4][31]. Outlook for the Bond Market - The bond market may remain volatile in January, with short - term interest rates potentially rising. After the supply shock at the end of the month, the bond market is expected to gradually recover. In the short term, a short - end leverage strategy can be adopted, waiting for configuration opportunities [5][37].

君亭酒店（301073.SZ） 湖北文旅控股+加盟业务提速+REITs 政策利好，迎发展新阶段 事件：1）25 年 12 月 2 日，公司公告湖北文旅拟通过协议转让和部分要 约收购方式，以 25.71 元/股价格获得公司 36.00%股份及对应表决权，交 易完成后，公司控股股东变更为湖北文旅，实际控制人变更为湖北省国资 委。2）25 年 12 月 8 日，公司与全球酒店特许经营领军企业精选国际酒 店集团在杭州联合举办中国区凯富酒店、凯艺酒店品牌揭幕盛典，两大品 牌经君亭团队本土化定制后将亮相中国市场。3）25 年 12 月 1 日，国家 发改委印发《基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs）项目行业范围 清单（（2025 年版）》的通知，符合条件的酒店项目可申报 REITs；25 年 12 月 31 日，证监会发布（《关于推动不动产投资信托基金（（REITs）市场高质 量发展有关工作的通知》，将积极推动 REITs 各项工作落实落地。 湖北文旅控股君亭，强强联合互利共赢。据公告，湖北文旅在确保公司现 有经营团队、组织架构与管理层级稳定，充分授予公司自主经营权的基础 上，可将旗下的优质住宿业资产分批次注入上市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance in the coming months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the encouragement of travel and cultural consumption through policies aimed at enhancing employee leisure activities, which is expected to boost the travel and cultural sectors significantly [2][4]. - The introduction of additional public holidays and policies supporting paid leave is anticipated to stimulate cultural and tourism consumption, particularly during traditionally low seasons [4]. - Data from travel platforms indicates a substantial increase in ticket bookings during recent holiday periods, showcasing a growing consumer interest in travel and leisure activities [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Initiatives - The report discusses the issuance of guidelines by various government bodies to promote employee cultural and sports activities, allowing for up to four organized trips per year and the distribution of cultural consumption vouchers [1][2]. Market Trends - Significant growth in ticket bookings was observed during the autumn and snow holidays, with some regions reporting increases of over 300% in ticket reservations compared to previous years [3]. - The report notes that the policy-driven encouragement of travel is likely to transform traditionally slow tourism periods into more active seasons, benefiting sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and sports events [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with potential for growth, particularly in Hainan and during the upcoming Spring Festival, as well as sectors benefiting from new consumer trends and favorable policies [5][8]. - Specific companies are recommended for investment, including those in the duty-free, hotel, and new retail sectors, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [8].

Group 1: Core Insights - A-shares are recommended for investment due to their relative advantages, with a current win rate of 19% and a return to neutral levels in terms of odds [3] - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with defense and military showing a 55.9% increase over the past year, while banking and coal industries have underperformed [1] - The report emphasizes the potential growth in the semiconductor market driven by advancements in power supply technology and the demand for SiC devices, with a projected market size of approximately $1.15 billion by 2030 [8] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Investment suggestions include focusing on growth-oriented real estate and energy companies, as well as internet firms benefiting from AI advancements [2] - In the food and beverage sector, the report recommends investing in both premium liquor brands and consumer staples, highlighting companies like Moutai and Yili for their recovery potential [5] - The report suggests that the advanced packaging and AR glasses markets could provide new growth opportunities for SiC devices, driven by increased power density in AI data centers [8]

- The report introduces the "Odds + Win Rate Strategy," which combines risk budget models for odds and win rates to construct a comprehensive strategy. The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 6.7% since 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 2.9%. Since 2014, the annualized return increased to 7.3%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.3%. From 2019 onwards, the annualized return is 6.3%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.3%[3][48][50] - The "Odds Enhanced Strategy" focuses on overweighting high-odds assets and underweighting low-odds assets under a target volatility constraint. This strategy has achieved an annualized return of 6.7% since 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 3.1%. Since 2014, the annualized return increased to 7.4%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.8%. From 2019 onwards, the annualized return is 6.8%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.8%[42][43][45] - The "Win Rate Enhanced Strategy" derives macro win rate scores from five factors: currency, credit, growth, inflation, and overseas. This strategy has achieved an annualized return of 7.1% since 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 3.4%. Since 2014, the annualized return increased to 8.0%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.2%. From 2019 onwards, the annualized return is 6.8%, with a maximum drawdown of 1.5%[44][46][47] - The report evaluates the "Small Cap Factor," which currently exhibits medium odds (0.3 standard deviations), medium-high trend (0.9 standard deviations), and low crowding (-1.5 standard deviations). The comprehensive score for this factor is 3.6, indicating improved allocation value[20][22][35] - The "Value Factor" is characterized by high odds (1.0 standard deviations), medium trend (0.3 standard deviations), and low crowding (-1.3 standard deviations). Its comprehensive score is 3, making it relatively attractive compared to other factors[22][23][35] - The "Quality Factor" shows high odds (1.3 standard deviations), medium trend (-0.2 standard deviations), and medium crowding (near 0 standard deviations). Its comprehensive score is 0.8, suggesting lower allocation value and the need to wait for trend confirmation[25][26][35] - The "Growth Factor" is currently in a high crowding state (1.0 standard deviations), with medium-high trend (0.7 standard deviations) and low odds (-0.6 standard deviations). Its comprehensive score is -1.5, indicating higher trading risks[28][30][35]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the liquor industry is expected to experience a dual improvement in supply and demand in 2026, following a risk release in 2025, with a focus on short-term sales recovery and mid-term structural and dividend considerations [4][78] - The consumer market is stabilizing, with structural growth changes continuing, as evidenced by a 4% decline in the food and beverage sector in 2025, which underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 20% [15][18] - The report highlights a significant differentiation in performance among consumer goods, with health products and frozen food sectors showing increases of 18% and 15% respectively, while liquor and beer sectors faced declines of 7% and 9% [15][18] Group 2 - The liquor sector is characterized by a threefold bottoming out, with supply clearing and value becoming more apparent, as major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye stabilize prices and restore confidence in the market [52][78] - The beer and beverage sectors are expected to benefit from a recovery in dining, with a focus on leading brands that can outperform expectations in terms of volume and price [4][52] - The food sector is positioned for recovery and growth, with a focus on strong alpha stocks, particularly in the restaurant supply chain and snack categories, as demand begins to rebound [4][52] Group 3 - The report indicates that the high-end consumer segment is showing signs of recovery, with luxury retail sales improving and experience-based consumption leading the way [30][33] - The report notes that the overall retail landscape is evolving towards discount retail, quality retail, and instant retail, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [40][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and channel development in the liquor industry, with a focus on lower alcohol content and appealing to younger consumers [72]