- The report discusses the valuation of convertible bonds (CB) using the pricing deviation indicator, which is calculated as the ratio of the CB price to the CCBA model price minus one. As of August 15, 2025, the pricing deviation indicator for the CB market is 5.42%, placing it in the 99.9th percentile since 2018, indicating a high valuation zone[6] - The report also mentions a rotation strategy between CBs and a stock-bond portfolio based on the pricing deviation indicator. The strategy involves calculating a Z-score from the pricing deviation and its standard deviation over the past three years, then adjusting the CB weight accordingly. This strategy has historically generated stable excess returns[21][23] - The report evaluates different CB strategies, including a low-valuation strategy, a low-valuation plus strong momentum strategy, a low-valuation plus high turnover strategy, a balanced debt-enhanced strategy, a credit bond replacement strategy, and a volatility control strategy. Each strategy is constructed using specific factors and has shown varying degrees of absolute and excess returns since 2018[33][36][40][44][48][52] Model and Factor Construction 1. **Pricing Deviation Indicator**: - **Construction Idea**: Measure the deviation of CB prices from their theoretical values - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the pricing deviation as follows: $ \text{Pricing Deviation} = \frac{\text{CB Price}}{\text{CCBA Model Price}} - 1 $ - Use this indicator to assess the valuation level of the CB market[6] - **Evaluation**: Indicates that the CB market is currently in a high valuation zone[6] 2. **Rotation Strategy Between CBs and Stock-Bond Portfolio**: - **Construction Idea**: Rotate between CBs and a stock-bond portfolio based on CB valuation - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the Z-score of the pricing deviation: $ Z = \frac{\text{Pricing Deviation}}{\text{Standard Deviation (3 years)}} $ - Adjust the CB weight using the Z-score: $ \text{CB Weight} = 50\% + 50\% \times \text{Z-score} $ - Allocate the remaining weight to the stock-bond portfolio[21] - **Evaluation**: This strategy has historically generated stable excess returns[21][23] 3. **Low-Valuation Strategy**: - **Construction Idea**: Select CBs with the lowest valuation deviations - **Construction Process**: - Use the CCB_out model to calculate the pricing deviation: $ \text{Pricing Deviation} = \frac{\text{CB Price}}{\text{CCB_out Model Price}} - 1 $ - Select the 15 CBs with the lowest deviations in each of the debt, balanced, and equity-biased categories (total 45 CBs) - Ensure the selected CBs have a balance of over 300 million and a rating of AA- or above[33] - **Evaluation**: This strategy has shown strong stability and significant absolute and excess returns since 2018[33] 4. **Low-Valuation + Strong Momentum Strategy**: - **Construction Idea**: Combine low valuation with strong momentum for higher elasticity - **Construction Process**: - Combine the pricing deviation factor with the stock momentum factor (1, 3, 6 months) - Select CBs based on combined scores[36] - **Evaluation**: This strategy has shown strong elasticity and significant absolute and excess returns since 2018[36] 5. **Low-Valuation + High Turnover Strategy**: - **Construction Idea**: Combine low valuation with high turnover for higher liquidity - **Construction Process**: - Select the lowest 50% valuation CBs - Within this pool, select CBs with the highest turnover rates (5, 21 days) and the highest CB to stock turnover ratios (5, 21 days)[40] - **Evaluation**: This strategy has shown stable excess returns and significant absolute returns since 2018[40] 6. **Balanced Debt-Enhanced Strategy**: - **Construction Idea**: Enhance returns by combining low valuation with turnover and momentum factors - **Construction Process**: - Select the lowest 50% valuation CBs, excluding equity-biased CBs - Use turnover and momentum factors for debt-biased CBs and turnover factors for balanced CBs[44] - **Evaluation**: This strategy has shown significant absolute returns with low volatility and drawdown since 2018[44] 7. **Credit Bond Replacement Strategy**: - **Construction Idea**: Replace credit bonds with CBs for higher returns - **Construction Process**: - Select CBs with YTM + 1% greater than 3-year AA credit bond YTM - Ensure selected CBs have a balance of over 300 million and a rating of AA- or above - Select the top 20 CBs based on 1-month stock momentum, with a maximum weight of 2% per CB - Use volatility control to reduce short-term drawdown, allocate remaining weight to credit bonds[48] - **Evaluation**: This strategy has shown stable returns with low volatility and drawdown since 2018[48] 8. **Volatility Control Strategy**: - **Construction Idea**: Control portfolio volatility while enhancing returns - **Construction Process**: - Select the top 15 CBs in each of the debt, balanced, and equity-biased categories based on low valuation and strong momentum scores - Use volatility control to maintain portfolio volatility at 4% - Allocate remaining weight to credit bonds[52] - **Evaluation**: This strategy has shown stable returns with controlled volatility and drawdown since 2018[52] Model and Factor Backtest Results 1. **Low-Valuation Strategy**: - **Annualized Return**: 23.0% - **Annualized Volatility**: 13.5% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 15.6% - **Excess Return**: 11.9% - **IR**: 2.08[36] 2. **Low-Valuation + Strong Momentum Strategy**: - **Annualized Return**: 25.4% - **Annualized Volatility**: 14.2% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 11.9% - **Excess Return**: 14.0% - **IR**: 2.32[40] 3. **Low-Valuation + High Turnover Strategy**: - **Annualized Return**: 25.2% - **Annualized Volatility**: 15.2% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 15.9% - **Excess Return**: 13.9% - **IR**: 2.20[44] 4. **Balanced Debt-Enhanced Strategy**: - **Annualized Return**: 23.2% - **Annualized Volatility**: 12.2% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 13.4% - **IR**: Not provided[48] 5. **Credit Bond Replacement Strategy**: - **Annualized Return**: 7.5% - **Annualized Volatility**: 2.1% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 2.8% - **IR**: Not provided[52] 6. **Volatility Control Strategy**: - **Annualized Return**: 10.2% - **Annualized Volatility**: 4.4% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 4.2% - **IR**: Not provided[56]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 18 年 月 日 业绩超预期，持续推动 AI 战略 联想集团 25-26Q1 财季业绩超预期。Q1 财季公司实现 188.3 亿美元收 入，同比增长 22%。分业务看，IDG/ISG/SSG/分部间抵消收入分别为 135/43/23/-12 亿美元，占比 71%/23%/12%/-6%，PC 及非 PC 业务分别 占 53%/47%。IDG/ISG/SSG 业务同比增速分别为 18%/36%/20%，各项 业务均保持高增速。盈利方面，Q1 财季毛利率录得 14.7%，同比/环比下 降 1.8pct/1.6pct；IDG/ISG/SSG 经营利润率分别为 7.1%/-2.0%/22.2%。 其中 ISG 业务亏损扩大，主要系 AI 服务器收入同比翻番，CSP 业务毛利 率较低。得益于卓越的运营和良好的费用控制，公司费用率环比明显收窄， 使得公司归母净利润同比大幅增长 108%至 5.05 亿美元，归母净利润率 录得 2.7%，同比/环比分别提升 1.1%/2.2%。 PC 基本盘快速增长，手机业务双位数增长。Q1 财季，联想集团 PC 收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company demonstrated robust performance in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 1.565 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.36%, and a net profit of 363 million yuan, up 17.04% [1] - Innovative products showed significant growth, with revenue from new products reaching 110 million yuan, a nearly 40% increase year-on-year, and overseas innovative products growing even more impressively [2][3] - The company is expanding its global service capabilities and has made significant progress in its overseas market, achieving 910 million yuan in overseas revenue, a 44.85% increase, with overseas revenue now accounting for 58% of total revenue [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating income of 1.565 billion yuan, with a quarterly breakdown showing Q2 revenue of 866 million yuan, a 21.36% year-on-year increase [1] - The company’s core product transition is expected to drive gross margin improvement, with gross margins for various product lines showing slight declines but potential for recovery as core products are switched [2] Product and Market Development - The company’s innovative products, particularly in the visualization category, are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue growth, with the second-generation cholangioscope anticipated to launch next year [4] - The company has successfully expanded its overseas market presence to over 90 countries, with notable growth in the Americas and Europe, particularly after acquiring a 51% stake in Creo Medical S.L.U. [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 3.341 billion, 3.993 billion, and 4.754 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 671 million, 807 million, and 968 million yuan [4] - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 3.57 yuan in 2025 to 5.15 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong growth potential [5]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive for the market, with expectations of new policies but limited strong stimulus in the short term, focusing on three major changes: export, consumption, and real estate data [6][7][8] - July economic data shows a general slowdown, with consumption continuing to decline and investment in real estate and manufacturing accelerating its drop [7][8] - The banking sector is experiencing a decline in profits, but the credit structure is continuously optimizing, with a narrowing decline in profit growth observed in Q2 [23][24] Group 2: Industry Performance - The construction industry is seeing a significant revaluation of mineral resources, with a focus on high-dividend leading companies due to improved supply and overseas demand [19][20] - The courier industry is experiencing a "reverse involution," with price increases expected to spread across regions, enhancing profitability for major listed companies [21][23] - The sweetener industry is projected to grow, driven by the demand for sugar reduction, with artificial sweeteners maintaining a strong market presence [30][31] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Jianghe Group, a leader in high-end curtain wall supply, is expected to see steady profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a minimum dividend payout ratio of 80% [20] - Rongxin Culture, a leader in children's books, is positioned for growth through digital transformation and IP monetization, with significant profit increases projected from 2025 to 2027 [32] - Youyou Foods, a leader in spicy chicken feet snacks, is expanding its market presence and product offerings, with strong growth potential in emerging channels [35]

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to generate excess returns relative to the CSI 500 index by leveraging quantitative strategies and factor-based stock selection[53][55] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model uses a strategy-driven approach to select stocks within the CSI 500 universe 2. Portfolio weights are optimized based on factor exposures and risk constraints 3. The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to maintain alignment with the strategy[54][56] **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated significant long-term excess returns but underperformed the benchmark in the most recent week[53][55] - **Model Name**: CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio, this model seeks to outperform the CSI 300 index through quantitative factor-based strategies[57][59] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Stocks are selected from the CSI 300 universe based on factor signals 2. Portfolio optimization is performed to balance factor exposures and minimize risk 3. Regular rebalancing ensures the portfolio remains aligned with the strategy[59][60] **Model Evaluation**: The model has achieved consistent long-term excess returns but slightly underperformed the benchmark in the most recent week[57][59] Model Backtesting Results - **CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio**: - Weekly return: 2.92% - Underperformance relative to benchmark: -0.96% - Cumulative excess return since 2020: 50.58% - Maximum drawdown: -4.99%[53][55] - **CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio**: - Weekly return: 2.28% - Underperformance relative to benchmark: -0.09% - Cumulative excess return since 2020: 35.61% - Maximum drawdown: -5.86%[57][59] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Beta Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market movements, with high-beta stocks expected to outperform in bullish markets[62][63] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Beta is calculated using historical regression of stock returns against market returns 2. Stocks are ranked based on their beta values, and portfolios are constructed to maximize exposure to high-beta stocks[62][63] **Factor Evaluation**: Beta factor exhibited strong positive excess returns during the week, indicating market preference for high-beta stocks[63][66] - **Factor Name**: Value Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents stocks with low valuation metrics, such as price-to-book or price-to-earnings ratios, which are expected to outperform over the long term[62][63] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Stocks are ranked based on valuation metrics like book-to-price (BTOP) 2. Portfolios are constructed to overweight undervalued stocks[62][63] **Factor Evaluation**: Value factor showed significant negative excess returns during the week, reflecting weak market sentiment toward value stocks[63][66] Factor Backtesting Results - **Beta Factor**: - Weekly excess return: Positive[63][66] - **Value Factor**: - Weekly excess return: Negative[63][66] --- Composite Factor Analysis - **Factor Name**: Liquidity Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the ease of trading a stock, with higher liquidity stocks expected to perform better in volatile markets[62][63] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Liquidity is measured using metrics like average daily turnover 2. Stocks are ranked, and portfolios are constructed to overweight high-liquidity stocks[62][63] **Factor Evaluation**: Liquidity factor demonstrated positive correlation with Beta and Momentum factors, indicating a preference for liquid, high-momentum stocks during the week[63][64] - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents stocks with strong recent performance, which are expected to continue outperforming in the short term[62][63] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Momentum is calculated based on trailing returns over a specific period 2. Stocks are ranked, and portfolios are constructed to overweight high-momentum stocks[62][63] **Factor Evaluation**: Momentum factor showed positive performance, aligning with market trends favoring high-momentum stocks[63][66] Composite Factor Backtesting Results - **Liquidity Factor**: - Weekly correlation with Beta: Positive[63][64] - **Momentum Factor**: - Weekly excess return: Positive[63][66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the green electricity sector and recommends focusing on undervalued green electricity stocks and wind power operators [8][9]. Core Viewpoints - In July, electricity generation increased by 3.1%, with accelerated growth in thermal, wind, and solar power, while hydropower saw a decline [2][13]. - The first mechanism electricity price bidding was initiated in Shandong, marking a significant step in the national electricity market [6][15]. - The total scale of mechanism electricity is set at 9.467 billion kilowatt-hours, with wind power accounting for 8.173 billion kilowatt-hours and solar power for 1.294 billion kilowatt-hours [7][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In July, the industrial electricity generation reached 926.7 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with daily average generation at 29.89 billion kilowatt-hours [2][14]. - The growth rates for various power sources in July were as follows: thermal power increased by 4.3%, wind power by 5.5%, solar power by 28.7%, while hydropower decreased by 9.8% [2][14]. Mechanism Electricity Bidding - Shandong Province released the implementation details for the mechanism electricity price bidding, which includes bidding subjects, bidding electricity volume, bidding mechanisms, and procedures [6][15]. - The bidding process will occur annually in October, with the first bidding scheduled for August 2025 [6][14]. Key Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued green electricity stocks, particularly in the Hong Kong market, and highlights specific companies such as New天绿色能源 (H), 中闽能源, and 福能股份 [8][9]. - It also recommends thermal power companies with resilient quarterly performance, including 华能国际, 华电国际, and 宝新能源 [8][9]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77 points, up 1.70%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4202.35 points, up 2.37% [67]. - The CITIC Power and Utilities Index fell by 0.10%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.47 percentage points [67]. Carbon Market Insights - The national carbon market saw a decrease in trading prices by 0.72%, with a total trading volume of 3.0317 million tons during the week [59][60].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading player in the children's book market, with a significant operational turning point expected as it accelerates its AI and IP strategies to unlock growth potential [4]. - The children's book market is stable, and the company benefits from its content e-commerce channel advantages and diverse IP monetization pathways [4]. Company Overview - The company, founded in 2006, specializes in the planning and distribution of children's books and cultural products, holding over 3,200 titles as of September 2022, making it a leading entity in the children's book sector [1][14]. - As of 2024, the company ranks third in the overall children's book retail market with a market share of 2.34%, second in the low-age enlightenment category with a 3.93% share, and second in the children's science category with a 4.59% share [14]. Children's Book Planning - The children's book retail market has a CAGR of 5.49% from 2016 to 2024, representing the largest segment of the book retail market [1]. - The company has established a strong presence in the functional children's book segment, which aligns well with e-commerce trends and addresses parental concerns [1]. - The company utilizes a combination of content e-commerce and traditional retail channels to attract customers and is expanding its offline presence through partnerships with bookstores and maternity shops [1]. IP Development - The company has developed a rich portfolio of children's IP resources, including brands like Lelequ and Aoyou Cat, catering to diverse reading needs for children aged 0-14 [2]. - It has built a full IP industry chain from content creation to animation production and merchandise, with plans to explore new monetization avenues through creative parks [2]. AI Strategy - The company is advancing its digital transformation with a core strategy that emphasizes digitalization across its business operations [3]. - It has established a digital center and an AI research institute focused on children's education, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and product offerings [3]. - The introduction of smart reading devices and a reading service platform aims to provide interactive reading experiences and educational resources for children and parents [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company anticipates a rebound in profitability, projecting net profits of 0.14 billion, 0.38 billion, and 0.59 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 132.1%, 167.4%, and 54.2% [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.66 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.68 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 38.3% [5].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Jianghe Group, a leading global high-end curtain wall company [5]. Core Viewpoints - The high-end curtain wall industry is experiencing significant supply optimization, with Jianghe Group establishing a leading position globally. The competitive landscape has improved, reducing malicious competition and leading to a clearer industry structure [1][10]. - Domestic market share is increasingly concentrated among leading companies, while overseas demand remains robust, particularly in regions like the Middle East and Southeast Asia [2][4]. - Jianghe Group is expanding rapidly overseas while maintaining stable high-quality operations domestically, with a strong focus on product platformization as a new growth driver [3][4]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The global high-end curtain wall supply has been significantly optimized, with Jianghe Group and others solidifying their leadership positions. The report notes that many smaller companies have been merged or acquired, leading to a reduction in competition [1][10]. - Jianghe Group has maintained its position as the top curtain wall company in China for seven consecutive years, showcasing its strong brand and operational advantages [11]. Demand Side - In 2022, China's total curtain wall output was 478.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.5%. The industry is expected to contract due to various factors, including public health events and economic pressures. However, leading companies are likely to increase their market share [2]. - Overseas, demand is expected to remain strong, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, driven by local investment plans and favorable residency policies. The estimated curtain wall market size for Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2023 is approximately 50.6 billion yuan and 33.6 billion yuan, respectively [2]. Jianghe Group - Jianghe Group is positioned as a global leader in the curtain wall industry, with significant advantages in technology, manufacturing, and brand recognition. The company has expanded its overseas operations significantly, with a projected 57% increase in overseas orders for 2024 [3][4]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a minimum dividend payout ratio of 80% planned for 2025-2027, indicating strong cash flow and shareholder returns [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes Jianghe Group as a core investment opportunity, predicting a market capitalization increase of 29% to 48% from 2025 to 2027 based on projected earnings and dividend yields [4][5]. - Other leading companies in the curtain wall industry, such as China State Construction Industry, Yuanda China, and Yasha Group, are also recommended for consideration due to their potential benefits from supply optimization and overseas demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the express delivery industry, indicating a potential for profit elasticity among major listed companies such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [5][24]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, driven by regulatory measures from the State Post Bureau and the active participation of express companies. This initiative aims to combat low-price competition and enhance service quality [1][16]. - The initial results of this de-involution are evident in Guangdong, where the minimum express delivery price has been raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with an average price exceeding 1.4 yuan. This price adjustment is expected to have a ripple effect across other regions [2][18]. - The de-involution effect is anticipated to be sustained due to seasonal price increases and new social security regulations, which will likely lead to increased operational costs for delivery personnel [3][20]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The de-involution framework emphasizes a dual approach where express companies take the lead, supported by regulatory oversight from postal authorities. This was reinforced by a series of meetings and policy announcements aimed at curbing irrational price competition [1][16][19]. Initial Outcomes - Guangdong's price increase serves as a model for other regions, with expectations that provinces like Zhejiang and Fujian will follow suit. The region has maintained a significant share of national express delivery volume, ranging from 24.33% to 27.25% since 2017 [2][19]. Profitability Analysis - The express delivery companies are characterized by low per-ticket profits but high business volumes, leading to significant profit elasticity. For instance, Zhongtong, YTO, Shentong, and Yunda are projected to handle 340.10 billion, 265.73 billion, 227.29 billion, and 237.83 billion packages respectively by the end of 2024, with per-ticket profits of 0.30, 0.15, 0.05, and 0.08 yuan [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high profit elasticity, particularly Shentong Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, Yunda Express, and Jitu Express, which have unique advantages in overseas operations [5][25].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - The oil market is experiencing fluctuations with a focus on the progress of US-Russia negotiations, leading to a decline in oil prices [1] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since May, with a total increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day from May to July, and a significant increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the highest monthly increase since the Saudi price war in 2020 [2] - Demand forecasts have been adjusted, with IEA lowering its predictions due to weak consumption in emerging markets, while EIA has raised its forecasts for certain countries, indicating a mixed outlook for demand [3] - US crude oil inventories have increased, indicating a shift from drawdown to accumulation [3] Supply Summary - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, aiming to fully restore 2.2 million barrels per day of reduced capacity [2] - IEA and EIA have raised their annual supply increase forecasts to 2.5 million barrels per day and 2.28 million barrels per day, respectively, reflecting a significant upward revision [2] Demand Summary - IEA has downgraded its demand forecast for emerging markets, while EIA has raised its demand forecast for countries like China and the US, indicating a divergence in outlooks [3] - The demand growth forecast for 2025 has been reduced by IEA, marking the lowest increase since 2009, while EIA's forecast has been adjusted upward but still reflects a decline from earlier predictions [3] Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for new wells in the US is approximately $65 per barrel, with larger companies having a breakeven price around $61 per barrel [4] - The operational cost range for US oil companies to cover existing well expenses is between $26 and $45 per barrel, indicating potential vulnerabilities if prices fall significantly [4]