Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 128.8 points (previous value: 128.7 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 6.1 points. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 3.9% (previous value: 4.1%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.5, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 5.2 points [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 41.4 (previous value: 41.5), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.2 points, and the decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.5, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 9.1 points; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.6, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase narrows from 0.9 points to 0.8 points; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.7, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase narrows from 3.5 points to 3.3 points [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly环比 forecast of CPI is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly环比 forecast of PPI is 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%) [2][9]. - The high - frequency index of inventory is 163.1 (previous value: 163.0), with a year - on - year increase of 7.8 points, and the increase rate narrows [2][10]. - The high - frequency index of transportation is 132.8 (previous value: 132.6), with a year - on - year increase of 10.6 points, and the increase rate expands [2][10]. - The high - frequency index of financing is 242.8 (previous value: 242.2), with a year - on - year increase of 30.6 points, and the increase rate expands [2][10]. Summary by Directory Total Index - The fundamental high - frequency index is stable. Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - items are built [8]. Production - The electric furnace operating rate increases to 61.5% (previous value: 60.9%); the polyester operating rate is 89.7% (previous value: 89.0%); the semi - tire operating rate is 71.1% (previous value: 73.7%); the full - tire operating rate is 61.3% (previous value: 64.5%); the PTA operating rate is 74.3% (previous value: 76.2%); the PX operating rate is 89.4% (previous value: 90.2%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 56.4 tons (previous value: 55.2 tons) [15]. Real Estate Sales - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increases to 28.5 million square meters (previous value: 22.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 0.5% (previous value: 10.1%) [26]. Infrastructure Investment - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt continues to decline, reaching 24.8% (previous value: 29.0%) [43]. Exports - The CCFI index rebounds to 1122.8 points (previous value: 1094.0 points); the RJ/CRB index is 299.5 points (previous value: 303.9 points) [45]. Consumption - The average daily box office of movies rises to 83890,000 yuan (previous value: 54440,000 yuan) [54]. CPI - Food prices decline comprehensively. The average wholesale price of pork is 17.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 18.1 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [61]. PPI - The spot prices of copper and aluminum decline. The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (from Shanxi) is 834 yuan/ton (previous value: 832 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 64 US dollars/barrel (unchanged from the previous value); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 10741 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10841 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2775 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2855 US dollars/ton) [64]. Transportation - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities slightly declines to 40140,000 person - times (previous value: 40820,000 person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1051 points (unchanged from the previous value); the number of domestic flights is 12533 (previous value: 12347) [76]. Inventory - The electrolytic aluminum inventory increases to 141,000 tons (previous value: 122,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 1648,000 tons (previous value: 1707,000 tons) [83]. Financing - The spread between bill and certificate of deposit narrows. The net financing of local government bonds is 126.7 billion yuan (previous value: 242.8 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 141.6 billion yuan (previous value: 31.4 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate is 0.68% (previous value: 0.60%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.95% (previous value: - 1.02%) [94].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Wancheng Group [3][5]. Core Insights - Wancheng Group has transformed from a leading edible mushroom producer to a high-growth player in the snack retail sector, achieving significant revenue growth in its new business line [1][12]. - The company has successfully integrated multiple snack brands and expanded its store network, with a target of 15,365 stores by mid-2025, contributing to a substantial increase in revenue and profit margins [1][13]. - The financial outlook is optimistic, with projected revenue growth rates of 56.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, alongside a significant increase in net profit [3][4]. Summary by Sections Development History - Established in 2011, Wancheng Group focused on edible mushrooms, becoming a key player in the agricultural sector by 2020, with mushroom revenue reaching 540 million yuan in 2024 [1][12]. - In 2022, the company entered the snack retail market, rapidly expanding through acquisitions and establishing a robust store network [1][13]. Shareholding Structure - The controlling shareholder, Wang Zeneng, holds 34.4% of the company, guiding the expansion of the snack business through strategic acquisitions and incentivizing management with equity plans [2][41]. - The company has been consolidating its snack brands under a unified operational structure to enhance efficiency and profitability [2][44]. Stock Price Trends - Since July 2024, Wancheng Group's stock price has increased over eightfold, driven by improved profit margins and the recovery of minority shareholder interests [3][25]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its new store formats and operational efficiencies, which are anticipated to further enhance its market valuation [3][19]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 50.4 billion yuan in 2025, 57.9 billion yuan in 2026, and 63.4 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.0% [4][5]. - Net profit is expected to rise dramatically, reaching 1.29 billion yuan in 2025, 1.98 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.54 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [4][5].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The current bond market is heavily influenced by banks, with expectations of gradual recovery as year-end approaches, leading to increased allocation by banks due to easing pressure on indicators [16] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to recover to a range of 1.6%-1.65% by year-end, reflecting a potential stabilization in the market [16] - Recent data indicates a significant net repayment of certificates of deposit, with a net financing of -373.2 billion yuan, suggesting a tightening liquidity environment [17][18] Group 2: Biotechnology Sector Analysis - The innovation drug sector is experiencing a resurgence driven by supportive policies and a favorable pricing mechanism, with a focus on global expansion opportunities [10][11] - The China Biotechnology Index, which includes companies involved in gene diagnostics and biopharmaceuticals, is showing strong market liquidity and institutional recognition, indicating a robust investment environment [13] - The projected revenue growth for the innovative drug company is significant, with forecasts of 5.43 billion yuan, 8.62 billion yuan, and 11.42 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [23] Group 3: Coal Market Dynamics - Current coal prices are primarily driven by real demand, particularly as the heating season begins, leading to increased consumption by power plants [30][31] - The supply constraints and regulatory pressures are expected to keep coal prices on an upward trajectory, with predictions of prices exceeding market expectations by year-end [31] - The focus on high-quality coal and the impact of steel production on coal demand are critical factors influencing market sentiment [32] Group 4: Renewable Energy and AIDC - The demand for AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Centers) is projected to increase significantly, with electricity needs expected to grow 2-3 times by 2028, highlighting a critical gap in the current power supply [37] - SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cells) is identified as a leading technology for onsite power solutions, with advantages in deployment speed and power density, making it a key player in the AIDC market [38] - The materials used in SOFC technology are crucial for its performance, with ceramic support structures currently dominating the market, indicating a strong competitive landscape [39]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 23 年 月 日 近半月，仍多聚焦"十五五"科技、重大项目、财政政策发力等，我们对 每半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策；2）地方政策； 3）行业与产业政策。本期为近半月（11.10-11.23）政策跟踪。 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策仍聚焦谋划"十五五"良好开局，具体有 6 大焦点：一是 11.16 总书记《求是》发表重要文章《因地制宜发展新质生产 力》，呼应"十五五"规划建议稿，要求"各地要坚持从实际出发，有选择 地推动新产业、新模式、新动能发展"；二是 11.22 总理出席 G20 峰会，就 "包容和可持续经济增长"议题发表讲话，聚焦协同应对世界经济增长乏 力、分歧矛盾等焦点问题，呼吁"坚定维护自由贸易，建设开放型世界经济； 坚持求同存异，通过平等协商妥处纷争摩擦"；三是 11.14 国常会部署深入 实施"两重"建设工作，要求把"两重"建设放在"十五五"全局中谋划和 推进，突出"战略性、前瞻性、全局性"，关注 2026 年全国两会后发布"十 五五"规划纲要全文，应会明确新一批重大项目"清单"；四是 11.14 财政 部 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the REITs industry Core Insights - The report highlights that Link REIT's rental income is under pressure, with a negative rental adjustment rate expected in the short term for properties in Hong Kong and mainland China, leading to a slight deterioration in the operating environment before a potential rebound [1][11][13] - The C-REITs secondary market is experiencing a general pullback, with a total market capitalization of approximately 219.85 billion yuan and an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [3][16] - The report suggests three main investment strategies for REITs: focusing on quality undervalued projects, considering the resilience of weak-cycle assets, and paying attention to original rights holders with ample asset reserves [5] Summary by Sections REITs Events - On November 20, Link REIT reported a total revenue of 7.02 billion HKD and a net property income of 5.18 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% and 3.4% respectively [1][11] - The rental adjustment rate for retail properties in Hong Kong was reported at -6.4%, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [12] REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index fell by 0.89% this week, with the closing index at 810.2 points [14] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has increased by 7.57% [2][14] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs showed a decline, with 9 REITs rising and 68 falling, resulting in an average weekly decline of 1.2% [3][16] - The logistics and industrial park REITs experienced a smaller decline compared to data center and affordable housing REITs, which saw larger pullbacks [16] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with top performers including Huaxia China Communications REIT at 9.7% and Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 9.2% [5] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for various REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, indicating varying levels of valuation [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality, undervalued projects, particularly in high-energy cities, and considering the resilience of weak-cycle assets [5] - It also emphasizes the importance of monitoring original rights holders with strong asset reserves for future growth opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [3][5]. Core Views - JD Group reported a revenue of 299.1 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.9%. The revenue breakdown includes JD Retail at 250.6 billion yuan, JD Logistics at 55.1 billion yuan, and new businesses at 15.6 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 11.4%, 24.1%, and 213.7% [1]. - The company recorded a consolidated operating loss of 1.1 billion yuan for the quarter, with JD Retail and JD Logistics achieving operating profit margins of 5.9% and 2.3%, while new businesses had a negative margin of 100.9% [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.8 billion yuan, a decline of 56% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of approximately 1.9% [1]. Revenue Growth and User Engagement - As of October, JD's annual active users exceeded 700 million, with a 40% year-on-year increase in user numbers and purchase frequency [2]. - The revenue growth for JD's consumer goods and daily necessities categories was 4.9% and 18.8%, respectively, with the daily necessities category growing approximately four times faster than the industry average [2]. - The platform and advertising service revenue growth accelerated, achieving a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [2]. Delivery Business Performance - JD's delivery business continues to improve, with a significant reduction in operating losses due to increased order volume and a higher proportion of high-ticket orders [2][3]. - The number of quality restaurants on the delivery platform has surpassed 2 million, with top 300 restaurant brands seeing a 13-fold increase in daily order volume since launch [3]. - The "Seven Fresh Kitchen" initiative has gained consumer recognition, contributing to a 12% increase in order volume for nearby quality restaurants [3]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenues of 1,328.7 billion yuan, 1,415.5 billion yuan, and 1,512.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.7%, 6.5%, and 6.9% [3][4]. - Non-GAAP net profit projections for the same years are 28 billion yuan, 39.5 billion yuan, and 51.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -41.5%, 40.9%, and 30.3% [3][4]. - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization of 335.3 billion yuan for JD, corresponding to target prices of 32 USD and 124 HKD [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target valuation of HKD 85.86 billion for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the global glucokinase activator (GKA) market, having successfully developed the first approved GKA drug, Dorzagliatin, after years of research and development [1][12]. - The company has seen rapid sales growth, with a 110.17% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching RMB 217 million [2][15]. - The second-generation GKA is being developed to extend the drug's action time and has received FDA acceptance for clinical research [2][12]. Summary by Sections Company History - The company has focused on glucokinase as a target for diabetes treatment for 14 years and achieved the first drug approval in this category in 2022 [1][12]. Management Team - The management team has extensive experience from multinational corporations, with a strong focus on diabetes drug development [13][14]. Financial Performance - The company has established its own sales team, leading to significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue of RMB 5.43 billion in 2025 [3][15]. - The company reported a tax profit of RMB 1.184 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [2][15]. Diabetes Market - The global diabetes drug market is substantial, with an expected value of USD 883.2 billion in 2024, growing to USD 2.338 trillion by 2032 [24][25]. - There is a significant need for new therapeutic mechanisms in diabetes treatment due to the limitations of existing drug targets [23][27]. Core Product - Dorzagliatin - Dorzagliatin is the only approved GKA drug globally, showing unique molecular mechanisms that differentiate it from competitors [30][34]. - Clinical trials have demonstrated its efficacy without severe hypoglycemia side effects, making it a promising treatment option [37][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates signs of recovery in the retail sector, particularly in high-end consumption and new retail, supported by recent quarterly performance disclosures from consumer companies [1] - The recovery is attributed to both low base effects from the previous year and the resilience of specific market segments, suggesting a strengthening foundation for domestic consumption [1] Summary by Sections Brand Performance - Richemont Group reported a 14% revenue increase in Q3 2025, with a 7% growth in mainland China, driven primarily by jewelry sales [2] - Burberry's same-store sales turned positive for the first time since 2024, with a 3% increase in China, benefiting from a low base effect [2] Property Performance - Swire Properties reported retail sales growth of 41.9% in Shanghai and 7.8% in Beijing for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating improving retail performance [3] - China Resources Land's total contract sales in October 2025 were approximately 15.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 51%, but recurring income showed a 3% increase [3] New Retail Developments - Walmart's Q3 2026 revenue reached $179.5 billion, a 5.8% year-on-year increase, with a 21.8% growth in China and a 32% increase in e-commerce sales [4] - Miniso reported a 28% revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a net profit increase of 12% and a total of 8,138 stores globally [5] Industry Trends - The retail index showed a decline of 7.24% recently, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.34 percentage points [14] - The report highlights the importance of new consumption trends and the potential for growth in sectors like duty-free shopping and cross-border e-commerce [10] Company Dynamics - Yum China announced a new strategic plan aiming for significant growth in store numbers and profitability over the next three years [21] - Huitongda Network plans to acquire a 57% stake in Cognition Boundary, enhancing its market position [21] Industry Developments - Good Sale has introduced coffee sales in select stores, maintaining a low-price strategy [23] - JD's discount supermarket is set to open a new location, expanding its market coverage [23] - Hema's new discount community supermarket model is entering the Guangdong market, indicating strategic expansion [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Shenzhou International, Tabo, and Anta Sports [5][12][35]. Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a significant performance in Q3 2025, with adjusted net profit increasing by 161% and revenue growing by 30% year-on-year to $1.76 billion [1][15]. - The report highlights the strong growth in the Technical Apparel segment, particularly driven by the Arc'teryx brand, which saw a 31% revenue increase in Q3 2025 [16]. - The Outdoor Performance segment, led by Salomon, experienced a 36% revenue growth in Q3 2025, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales rising by 67% [22]. - The Ball & Racquet segment, centered around Wilson, achieved a 16% revenue increase in Q3 2025, with plans to expand store presence in China [25]. Summary by Sections Amer Sports Q3 2025 Performance - Adjusted net profit grew by 161% to $185 million, with revenue reaching $1.76 billion [1][15]. - Revenue growth by region: Americas +18%, Greater China +47%, EMEA +23%, Asia Pacific +54% [1][15]. - Expected revenue growth for 2025 is projected at 23%-24% [1][15]. Technical Apparel - Revenue increased by 31% to $683 million in Q3 2025, with a DTC revenue growth of 46% [16]. - The segment's adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) decreased by 1 percentage point to 19% [16]. Outdoor Performance - Revenue rose by 36% to $724 million in Q3 2025, with a 67% increase in DTC sales [22]. - The segment's adjusted OPM improved by 4.2 percentage points to 21.7% [22]. Ball & Racquet - Revenue grew by 16% to $350 million in Q3 2025, with an adjusted OPM increase of 0.7 percentage points to 7.6% [25]. - The segment's growth was primarily driven by apparel and racquet products, with plans to open 35 new stores in China [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their strong fundamentals and growth potential, including Shenzhou International, Tabo, and Anta Sports, with respective PE ratios of 14x, 15x, and 16x for 2025 [32][33][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction and decoration industry, particularly focusing on international engineering leaders such as China National Materials (中材国际), China Steel International (中钢国际), and others [9][24]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased, which could lead to significant reconstruction investments in Ukraine, estimated at $523.6 billion over the next decade, creating substantial demand for construction projects and building materials [2][18]. - Chinese construction companies are well-positioned to benefit from overseas projects, especially in post-war reconstruction efforts in Ukraine, as they possess competitive advantages in technology, efficiency, and cost [3][20]. - The trend of urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets, combined with the relocation of some manufacturing capacities from China, indicates a long-term trend of Chinese construction companies expanding overseas [7][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the potential for large-scale reconstruction in Ukraine if the conflict ends, with significant investment needs in housing (16% of total needs) and infrastructure (32.4% of total needs) [2][18]. - The demand for basic construction materials like cement and steel is expected to rise significantly due to reconstruction efforts [18][19]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include: - China National Materials (中材国际) with a PE of 7.2X and a dividend yield of 5.5% - China Steel International (中钢国际) with a PE of 9.6X and a dividend yield of 5.3% - Northern International (北方国际) with a PE of 11X - China Chemical Engineering (中国化学) with a PE of 6.3X and a PB of 0.70X - Jianghe Group (江河集团) with a PE of 12X and a dividend yield of 6.5% - Precision Steel Structure (精工钢构) with a PE of 10X and a dividend yield of 6.9% [8][24][26]. Market Trends - The report notes that overseas construction demand remains robust, driven by urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets, such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and various infrastructure initiatives in Southeast Asia [7][22][23]. - The report cites that 68% of A-share listed companies have disclosed overseas business income, indicating a growing trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally [7][24].