证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 基础化工 左手商业航天右手消费，聚焦 3D 打印材料 3D 打印全球 219 亿美元市场，材料种类多样。3D 打印即增材制造（AM）， 被誉为引领第三次工业革命的核心技术。不同于传统制造将原料"削减" 加工成所需形状，3D 打印可一体化成型复杂结构产品，具有快捷、低成 本、高精度等优势。根据 WOHLERS，2024 年全球 3D 打印市场规模高 达 219 亿美元。材料方面，金属材料占比 22%，其中铁基材料由于成本 较低最为主流；高分子材料领域，PLA 线材以其优异的打印性能及低廉的 价格深度绑定 FDM 成为应用最广泛的材料；SLA 光固化主要采用光敏树 脂；SLS 主要搭配高分子粉材，PA12 为主流品种。 消费级 3D 打印机：中国"四小龙"腾飞，行业加速崛起。过去消费打印 机普遍存在"速度慢、易故障、难上手"的问题，目前技术升级带来打印 效率、精度提升；同时主流品牌入门级型号降价至 1000 元内，大大降低 了购买门槛，而例如 Gemini Nano Banana 等多模态 AI 大模型的出现可通 过 2D 图 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：白酒龙头信号积极，量贩龙头景气扩张 投资建议：1、白酒：坚持内需主导下顺周期白酒估值、基本面有望先后 修复，茅台、五粮液出牌优化渠道与价格，板块底部价值持续凸显，建议 配置：1）供给出清或边际改善：泸州老窖、古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒、洋河 股份、港股珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒等；2）中长期龙头：贵州茅台、 五粮液、山西汾酒等。2、大众品：中央经济工作会议重点定调内需主导， 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，由食品价格转正带动，鸣鸣很忙上市获批，卫 龙盐津重点打造魔芋，优先关注成长股、后续切换复苏： 1）高景气或高 成长逻辑：东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、万辰集团、盐津铺子、有友 食品、新乳业、百龙创园等，港股卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善： 百润股份、青岛啤酒、海天味业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、洽洽 食品、仙乐健康、安井食品、立高食品、好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润 饮料、H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：茅台、普五纷纷出牌，龙头积极、静待改善。临近年底旺季将至， 在白酒需求疲软、供给持续出清、批价仍在承 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [3][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion are favorable for precious metals, with expectations of further rate cuts in 2026 [1][35]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper inventories are increasing in the U.S., while non-U.S. regions face supply tightness, which could lead to a short squeeze [2]. - The aluminum market is supported by positive macroeconomic policies and low inventory levels, leading to a strong price floor [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain low due to seasonal demand weakness [2]. - Lithium prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while cobalt supply is set to increase with the resumption of exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's recent actions are expected to boost liquidity and support precious metal prices [1][35]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, which could influence precious metal investments positively [1][35]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: U.S. copper inventories are rising, while low inventories in non-U.S. regions raise concerns about supply [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a strong price support due to positive economic data and low inventory levels [2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are projected to remain low as demand enters a seasonal downturn [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices are fluctuating due to supply disruptions, with recent increases in lithium carbonate prices [2]. - **Cobalt**: The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to stabilize supply and maintain high price levels [2]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others for potential investment opportunities [1][2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the optical communication sector, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [5][10]. Core Insights - The optical isolator is a critical passive device in optical communication systems, relying on the combination of polarizers and Faraday plates. There is a significant technological dependency and supply gap in the upstream manufacturing of these core components, particularly in high-end Faraday magnetic optical materials, which has become a bottleneck for industry development [1][19]. - The report highlights the low domestic production rate of core materials for polarizers, which are monopolized by Japanese and Korean suppliers, indicating a need for increased localization [3][21]. - The global shortage of Faraday plates is a critical issue, as their complex material growth and precision processing are dominated by a few companies in the US and Japan, leading to supply constraints that hinder the expansion of isolators and high-speed optical modules [4][22][23]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the upstream gaps in isolators, particularly polarizers and Faraday plates, and recommends companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication for investment [8][24]. Market Review - The communication sector has seen an increase, with optical communication performing particularly well, as indicated by various indices showing significant growth [15][18]. Supply Chain Dynamics - In 2024, China's production capacity for polarizers is expected to account for approximately 73% of the global market, yet the localization rate of core materials remains below 10%, posing challenges to supply chain stability [6][7][24]. Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies to monitor within the optical communication and related sectors, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others involved in the supply chain [8][9][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that high natural gas prices in the U.S. are driving a resurgence in coal consumption, with utilities opting to increase coal-fired power generation to control costs [2][3] - The performance of coal-fired power generation in the U.S. has seen a year-on-year increase of 21% in Q1 2025, while gas-fired generation has decreased by approximately 3% [3] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of December 12, 2025, coal prices have seen slight adjustments, with Newcastle coal priced at $107.75 per ton, down by $1.75 from the previous week, and ARA coal at $95.55 per ton, down by $1.20 [3][33] - The report highlights a significant increase in coal consumption in the U.S. due to the cost control measures by utilities, leading to a shift back to coal from gas [2][3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][6] - It also highlights companies with potential growth such as Huayang Co., Gansu Energy Chemical, and Jiangxi Tungsten Industry, which have recently undergone significant changes [3][6] Market Trends - The report notes that coal-fired power generation's carbon emissions are approximately 75% higher than those from gas-fired generation, indicating a potential increase in overall carbon emissions as coal's share in power generation rises [3] - The report anticipates further increases in natural gas prices, which could continue to influence coal consumption patterns [3][5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 交通运输 快递、民航"反内卷"整治持续，VLCC 受制裁名单再扩大 周观点：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，会议明确"制 定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整治'内卷式'竞争"。继续看好快递、 航空在"反内卷"整治下的投资机会。快递反内卷线：快递行业份额逐步 向头部快递集中，反内卷政策下恶性价格战得到有效遏制，头部快递份额、 利润同步提升，有望迎来双击。快递出海线：快递出海，天地广阔，海外 电商 GMV 爆发式增长，带动快递业务量迅猛增长，相关标的为极兔速递。 看好"反内卷"整治下航空板块中长期景气度：运力供给维持低增速、需 求持续恢复，供需缺口缩小叠加油价中枢下移及"反内卷"政策继续推进， 静待票价持续修复、航司盈利不断改善。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.55%，跑输上证指数 1.21 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.34%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，仅 公路货运板块上涨，涨幅为 4.76%；跌幅前三名分别为公交、高速公路、 铁路运输板块，对应跌幅分别为-4.97%、-2.49% ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 量化周报 市场的震荡调整态势不改 市场的震荡调整态势不改。本周（ 12.8-12.12），大盘震荡下行，上证指数 全周收跌 0.34%。在此背景下，煤炭、钢铁、农林牧渔确认日线级别下跌， 军工迎来日线级别上涨。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹 已经持续了 7 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 30%左右，各大指数和板块的 上涨基本都轮动了一遍，超半数的行业日线级别上涨处于超涨状态，几乎 所有的规模指数及一半以上的行业更是走出了复杂的 9-17浪的上涨结构， 科创 50、中小 100 更是在所有宽基里面率先形成了日线级别下跌，地产、 食品饮料、医药、商贸零售、汽车、电子、计算机、非银、机械、煤炭、 钢铁、农林牧渔也相继形成了日线级别下跌，中证 500、中证 1000、创业 板指、沪深 300、传媒、建筑、建材也有较大概率将确认日线级别下跌。 因此我们认为本轮日线级别上涨大概率已经结束。未来市场大概率会是震 荡调整的态势，当下的反弹大概率只是一波 30 分钟级别反弹，不改市场 的震荡调整态势。中期来看，上证指数、上证 ...

- Model Name: Timing Radar Six-Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model attempts to capture the performance of the equity market through multiple dimensions, including liquidity, economic conditions, valuation, capital flows, technical indicators, and crowding; Model Construction Process: The model selects 21 indicators from the aforementioned dimensions and categorizes them into four major categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal." These indicators are then used to generate a comprehensive timing score ranging from [-1,1]; Model Evaluation: The model provides a comprehensive view of market conditions from multiple perspectives, making it a useful tool for market timing[1][6][9] - Factor Name: Liquidity Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor aims to determine the direction of current monetary policy; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated using the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days. If the factor is greater than 0, it indicates a loose monetary policy, and if less than 0, it indicates a tight monetary policy; Current View: This week, the liquidity direction factor is greater than 0, signaling a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[11][13] - Factor Name: Liquidity Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor is based on the "interest rate corridor" concept to measure the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the deviation = DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1, smoothed and z-scored. If the factor is less than -1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a loose environment for the next 120 trading days, with a score of 1. Conversely, if greater than 1.5 standard deviations, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the liquidity strength factor score is 0, indicating a neutral signal[14][15] - Factor Name: Credit Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures the tightness of credit transmission from commercial banks to the real economy; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated using the monthly value of medium- and long-term loans, the incremental value over the past 12 months, and the year-over-year change. If the factor is rising compared to three months ago, it is bullish, with a score of 1. Conversely, if falling, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the credit direction factor is identified as an upward trend, signaling a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[17][19] - Factor Name: Credit Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures whether credit indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as (new RMB loans for the month - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation. If the factor is greater than 1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a significantly above-expectation credit environment for the next 60 trading days, with a score of 1. Conversely, if less than -1.5 standard deviations, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the credit strength factor score is -1[20][22] - Factor Name: Growth Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor is based on PMI data to measure economic growth direction; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated using the 12-month average of PMI values and their year-over-year change. If the factor is rising compared to three months ago, it is bullish, with a score of 1. Conversely, if falling, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the growth direction factor is identified as an upward trend, signaling a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[22][24] - Factor Name: Growth Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures whether economic growth indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as (PMI - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation. If the factor is greater than 1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a significantly above-expectation growth environment for the next 60 trading days, with a score of 1. Conversely, if less than -1.5 standard deviations, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the growth strength factor score is -1, signaling a bearish outlook[25][26] - Factor Name: Inflation Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures the current inflation level's impact on monetary policy; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as 0.5 × smoothed CPI year-over-year value + 0.5 × raw PPI year-over-year value. If the factor is lower compared to three months ago, it indicates a downward inflation environment, with a score of 1. Conversely, if higher, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the inflation direction factor is identified as an upward trend, signaling a bearish outlook, with a score of -1[27][28] - Factor Name: Inflation Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures whether inflation indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the average of CPI and PPI forecast deviations, where forecast deviation = (reported value - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation. If the factor is less than -1.5, it indicates a significantly below-expectation inflation environment for the next 60 trading days, with a score of 1. Conversely, if greater than 1.5 standard deviations, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the inflation strength factor score is -1, signaling a bearish outlook[29][33] - Factor Name: Shiller ERP; Factor Construction Idea: This factor adjusts for economic cycle fluctuations in corporate earnings to assess current market valuation levels; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as Shiller ERP = 1 / Shiller PE - 10-year government bond yield, with the past 6 years' z-score used as the score; Current View: This week, the Shiller ERP has risen, with the score increasing to 0.06[30][31] - Factor Name: PB; Factor Construction Idea: This factor adjusts the PB indicator similarly to ERP; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as PB × (-1) and z-scored over the past 6 years, standardized to ±1 after 1.5 standard deviation truncation; Current View: This week, the PB has declined, with the score rising to -0.38[34][35] - Factor Name: AIAE; Factor Construction Idea: This factor reflects the overall market risk preference based on the aggregate investor allocation to equities; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as AIAE = total market cap of CSI All Share Index / (total market cap of CSI All Share Index + total debt of the real economy), with the past 6 years' z-score used as the score; Current View: This week, the AIAE has declined, with the score rising to -0.72[36][37] - Factor Name: Margin Trading Increment; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures market sentiment based on the source of leveraged funds; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the difference between the 120-day average increment and the 240-day average increment of margin trading balance. If the 120-day average increment is greater than the 240-day average increment, it is bullish, with a score of 1. Conversely, if less, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the short-term increment of margin trading is greater than the long-term increment, signaling a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[38][39] - Factor Name: Trading Volume Trend; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures market activity and sentiment based on trading volume; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the moving average distance of log trading volume = ma120 / ma240 - 1. If the maximum of the moving average distance over 10, 30, and 60 days is positive, it is bullish, with a score of 1. Conversely, if the minimum is negative, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the trading volume trend signals a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[41][42] - Factor Name: China Sovereign CDS Spread; Factor Construction Idea: This factor represents the pricing level of China's economic and sovereign credit risk by overseas investors; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the 20-day difference of the smoothed CDS spread. If the difference is less than 0, it indicates a bullish outlook, with a score of 1. Conversely, if greater than 0, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the 20-day difference of the CDS spread is greater than 0, signaling a bearish outlook, with a score of -1[45][46] - Factor Name: Overseas Risk Aversion Index; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures overseas market risk preference based on the Citi RAI Index; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the 20-day difference of the smoothed risk aversion index. If the difference is less than 0, it indicates a bullish outlook, with a score of 1. Conversely, if greater than 0, the score is -1; Current View: This week, the 20-day difference of the risk aversion index is less than 0, signaling a bullish outlook, with a score of 1[47][48] - Factor Name: Price Trend; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures the market trend and strength based on moving average distance; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the moving average distance = ma120 / ma240 - 1. If the distance is greater than 0, the trend direction score is 1, otherwise -1. If the maximum of the distance over

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The financing situation shows a slow - down pressure, while the supply of funds increases, and the bond market is expected to gradually recover. The positive stance of the Central Economic Work Conference on macro - policies helps ease market adjustment pressure. The future interest rate trend depends on whether fiscal policies can drive the recovery of social financing growth. If the fiscal strength is limited and the social financing growth rate continues to decline, the interest rate will fall. The slowdown in real - estate sales leads to more residents' savings flowing into fixed - income assets, which is beneficial for the bond market [5][20]. 3. Summary by Related Content Credit Situation - In November, the loan growth rate continued to slow down, with obvious bill - padding characteristics. New credit was 39 billion yuan, 19 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and the new credit scale has been lower than the same period last year for 5 consecutive months. Corporate credit increased by 61 billion yuan, mainly due to the increase in short - term loans. Corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 17 billion yuan, 4 billion yuan less than the same period last year, while bill financing increased by 33.42 billion yuan, 21.19 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Resident loans decreased by 20.63 billion yuan, 47.63 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which is consistent with the slowdown in real - estate sales [1][8]. Social Financing Situation - In November, new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, 159.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, the same as last month. Corporate bonds contributed significantly to the year - on - year increase in social financing, with a net financing of 41.69 billion yuan, 17.88 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Government bond issuance was stable, with a new scale of 1.2041 trillion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan under a high base [2][10]. - Looking ahead, the social financing growth rate may face pressure. The increase in social financing growth rate in the first half of this year was mainly driven by the year - on - year increase in government bonds. However, the fiscal increment scale next year may not reach this year's level. It is expected that the social financing growth rate may slow down from the current 8.5% to about 7.5% by June next year [3][11]. M1 and M2 Situation - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.0%, 0.2 percentage points lower than last month, which was consistent with the slowdown in deposit growth. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 also declined, dropping from 6.2% to 4.9%, and its two - year compound growth rate was stable at about 2%, indicating that the fluctuations were mainly due to the base effect [3][13]. Deposit Situation - In November, new deposits were 1.4 trillion yuan, 760 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Fiscal deposits decreased by 5 billion yuan, 19 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Resident deposits increased by 67 billion yuan, 12 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and corporate deposits increased by 64.53 billion yuan, 9.47 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Non - bank deposits increased by 8 billion yuan, 10 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The slowdown in deposit growth may be due to the central bank's increased capital injection [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Insights - The global top AI models are in a phase of rapid iteration, with continuous advancements in technology and capabilities [1]. - Google's Gemini 3 Pro excels in multimodal understanding and long-term planning, showcasing superior performance in various data types [1][13]. - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 is designed for professional knowledge work, demonstrating significant improvements in complex document handling and project management [1][14]. - The DeepSeek V3.2 series from domestic developers shows innovation through sparse attention mechanisms and extensive post-training, although it acknowledges limitations in pre-training [1][16][19]. - The transition from NVIDIA's Hopper architecture to Blackwell represents a generational leap in AI computing power, enhancing performance and efficiency [2][20]. - ByteDance's Doubao mobile assistant marks a significant breakthrough in user interaction, initiating a new era of edge-side agents [4][26]. Summary by Sections AI Model Development - The report highlights the ongoing evolution of AI models, with significant advancements in multimodal capabilities and planning skills, particularly with models like Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-5.2 [1][14][16]. - DeepSeek V3.2's innovations include sparse attention mechanisms and aggressive post-training strategies, which enhance its performance in reasoning tasks [17][19]. Computing Power Transition - The shift to Blackwell architecture is characterized by substantial improvements in computational performance across various precision levels, memory capacity, and interconnect bandwidth [2][21][23]. - Blackwell's enhancements allow for larger batch sizes in training, improving gradient stability and convergence quality, which are crucial for developing more complex models [3][24][25]. User Interaction Innovations - The Doubao mobile assistant integrates advanced AI capabilities into mobile operating systems, allowing users to perform tasks with simple voice commands, thus transforming mobile interaction paradigms [4][26][28]. - Despite initial resistance from certain applications, the assistant's potential to streamline user interactions signifies a major advancement in AI application deployment [4][27][28]. Investment Focus Areas - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in computing power, such as Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and others, as well as those developing AI agents like ByteDance and Google [5][29].