量化周报 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 09 07 年 月 日 市场波动进一步加大 市场波动进一步加大。本周（9.1-9.5），大盘出现大幅震荡，上证指数全 周收跌 1.18%。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹已经持续 了 4 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 20%以上，各大指数和板块的上涨基本 都轮动了一遍，上证指数、上证 50、非银、有色、农林牧渔、消费者服务、 商贸零售、纺织服装、计算机、建筑、交运等板块更是走出了复杂的上涨 结构，而银行也已经率先形成了日线级别下跌，因此我们认为本轮日线级 别上涨大概率已临近尾声。短期，市场的波动进一步加大，投资者后续可 积极关注市场未来是否出现放量滞涨、放量大跌及缩量反弹迹象。中期来 看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科 创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结构，中期牛 市刚刚开始；此外，已有 25 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 17 个行业周 线上涨走了 1-3 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市是个普涨格局。中期对于 投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $20, corresponding to a 20x P/S for 2025 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has lowered its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 from 900 million RMB to approximately 500 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 10% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company delivered 68 units of the EH216 series aircraft, a significant increase compared to previous quarters, with a total of 79 units delivered in the first half of the year [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 147 million RMB in Q2, representing a 44% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 62.6% [1]. - The company has received over 150 new orders for the EH216 series in Q2, with 90% of these being domestic orders [3]. - The company is actively pursuing the commercial launch of the EH216-S for passenger operations within the year and plans to unveil the VT35 model in September [2]. Financial Summary - The company expects revenues of 500 million RMB in 2025, with projections of 750 million RMB in 2026 and 1.34 billion RMB in 2027 [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 5 million RMB in 2025, increasing to 54 million RMB in 2026 and 167 million RMB in 2027 [4]. - The company has a capital expenditure guidance of approximately $40 million for 2025, with capacity expansion goals remaining unchanged [1]. Operational Developments - The company has obtained all necessary certifications for eVTOL manufacturing and is conducting trial operations for passenger drones [2]. - Strategic partnerships have been established with battery manufacturers to address battery life and charging issues, including the development of solid-state batteries [3].

Fixed Income Commentary - The recent decline in funding prices has not led to a decrease in certificate of deposit (CD) rates, resulting in a widening spread between the two. As of September 5, the R007 (20DMA) rate was 1.50%, down 15 basis points from the end of Q2, while the 1-year AAA CD rate rose slightly to 1.665%, an increase of 3.5 basis points from the end of Q2. The spread between the 1-year CD and R007 has expanded significantly to 16.4 basis points, compared to a June average of 4.9 basis points, indicating a high level not seen in nearly two years [1][8][9]. Currency and Foreign Capital Flow - During the period of anticipated RMB depreciation, a high forward exchange rate premium attracted foreign capital inflow, leading to significant accumulation of CDs. From September 2023 to August 2024, the RMB is expected to face depreciation pressure, with the forward exchange rate premium remaining high at around 3%-4%. Foreign investors have been purchasing domestic 1-year CDs and locking in forward exchange rates, achieving a combined yield of 5%-7%, which is higher than the yield on 1-year US Treasury bonds. The difference between the forward exchange rate premium and the 1-year AAA CD yield compared to the 1-year US Treasury yield has remained positive, mostly around 1 percentage point [2][11][13]. Impact of RMB Appreciation - As the RMB shifts from depreciation pressure to appreciation pressure, the forward premium has decreased, leading to capital outflows from the bond market, particularly in CDs. Since May, the RMB has appreciated against the USD, with the 1-year forward exchange rate premium dropping to around 2%. This decline means that even with investments in domestic bonds, the overall yield is approximately 4%, comparable to the yield on 1-year US Treasury bonds. From May to July, foreign investors reduced their holdings in domestic bonds by 515.5 billion RMB, with 313.8 billion RMB attributed to CDs [3][16][21]. Foreign Capital Reduction and CD Rates - The reduction in foreign holdings of CDs has contributed to the slower decline in CD rates, resulting in a widening spread between CDs and funding rates. From April to July, foreign investors reduced their monthly holdings of CDs by an average of 104.6 billion RMB. Given that the average net financing for CDs this year has only been 1.885 billion RMB per month, the reduction in foreign holdings has had a notable impact on CD rates, potentially leading to a slower decline in rates during periods of falling funding prices [17][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is experiencing a supply transformation and demand recovery, with optimistic valuations at the bottom. Key investment lines include focusing on leading brands, sustained dividends, and strong recovery [1][2] - The beverage sector is seeing intense competition during the peak season, with new product launches and cross-industry collaborations. Companies with strong channel networks and growth potential in flagship products are recommended [3] - The food sector is expanding into instant retail, with new product offerings for the Mid-Autumn Festival and the emergence of discount retail formats. The competition in this space is expected to intensify [4] Summary by Sections White Liquor - Demand is showing signs of recovery, supported by government policies that incentivize banquet consumption. The trend of white liquor sales and opening bottles has begun to improve since August, with expectations for continued support from family and wedding events [2] - Leading companies are enhancing their product lines, with Water Well's new product launch planned for September. The industry is undergoing inventory reduction, and the overall fundamentals are expected to stabilize [2] Beer and Beverage - The appointment of Zhao Chunwu as Chairman of China Resources Beer is noted, highlighting his management experience. The beer sector is in its peak season, with innovative products being introduced [3] - The beverage market is characterized by fierce competition, with major players expanding their distribution networks significantly. The report suggests focusing on companies with leading channel positions and strong single-product growth potential [3] Food - The food sector is preparing for the Mid-Autumn Festival with new product launches across various retail channels. The opening of the first "Happy Monkey" store signifies a shift towards community discount retailing [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain efficiency and product selection in the success of discount retail formats, with a notable shift towards online instant retail [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the optical communication sector [4]. Core Insights - The optical communication sector has experienced significant volatility recently, but strong demand and large orders in the overseas AI computing field indicate that the fundamentals of the optical module industry remain solid. The AI-driven computing expansion cycle is far from over, and the recent market adjustments provide a better investment opportunity for long-term investors [1][26]. - The core logic driving long-term growth in the optical module industry remains unchanged, with exponential growth in AI computing demand necessitating faster and more efficient data transmission capabilities. Major overseas cloud service providers have significantly increased their capital expenditures, reflecting high industry prosperity [3][28]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the optical communication sector, particularly recommending leading companies in the optical module industry such as Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase, as well as other related firms [10][11][18]. Market Review - The communication sector has seen a decline, with the optical communication segment performing relatively well compared to other sub-sectors. The report notes that the optical communication index increased by 0.1%, while other indices experienced declines [22][25][23]. AI Computing Infrastructure - Major global AI companies are accelerating their computing infrastructure development through large-scale collaborations and self-developed chip deployments. Companies like Google and Meta have significantly raised their capital expenditure forecasts for AI infrastructure [2][8][30]. Demand for Optical Modules - The demand logic for optical modules remains intact, driven by the ongoing need for enhanced data transmission capabilities due to the exponential growth in AI computing requirements. This is evidenced by substantial increases in capital expenditures from major cloud service providers [3][30]. Short-term Market Adjustments - Recent adjustments in the A-share optical communication sector are attributed more to market sentiment and fund flow changes rather than fundamental shifts in the industry. The report suggests that these adjustments do not hinder the long-term demand logic driven by AI [9][31]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the optical communication sector and related companies, highlighting specific firms such as Zhongji Xuchuang, NewEase, and Tianfu Communication, among others. It also suggests monitoring domestic computing supply chains, particularly in liquid cooling segments [10][11][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the contribution of financial asset disposal gains from AC and OCI accounts to revenue reached 5.2%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][2]. - The investment income growth rate for 42 listed banks was 23.6%, with AC, OCI, and TPL gains showing year-on-year growth rates of 134.7%, 79.0%, and -8.4% respectively [1]. - The report highlights that the increase in disposal gains does not necessarily indicate a significant increase in asset disposal scale, as market conditions and strategies vary among banks [2]. Financial Asset Disposal Gains - The contribution of AC and OCI financial asset disposal gains to revenue was 5.2%, up 2.9 percentage points from 2024, with AC asset disposal gains contributing 2.6% [2]. - Among different types of banks, rural commercial banks had the highest contribution from AC and OCI disposal gains, reaching 11.0%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points from 2024 [2]. - Specific banks such as Jiangyin Bank, Sunong Bank, and Zijin Bank had high disposal gain ratios relative to their revenue, at 28.9%, 26.7%, and 22.7% respectively [2]. OCI Floating Profit Situation - The overall OCI floating profit decreased compared to the end of the previous year, accounting for 12.6% of the estimated profit for 2025 [3]. - Major state-owned banks like CCB and ABC reported significant OCI floating profits, with balances exceeding 30 billion [3]. - The average contribution of OCI floating profits to profits for city and rural commercial banks was notably high, with Ningbo Bank's ratio reaching 35% [3][6]. Sector Trends - The banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on real estate and consumer spending [7]. - The report suggests a focus on banks with improving fundamentals, such as Ningbo Bank, and those with dividend strategies like Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank [7]. - Attention is also drawn to banks with potential convertible bond conversion expectations, including Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both China Metallurgical Group (中国中冶) and China Railway Group (中国中铁) [5][12]. Core Insights - China Metallurgical Group has significant copper reserves, with a valuation potential of 707 billion H shares, indicating a 62% upside [16][27]. - China Railway Group benefits from rising molybdenum prices, with a valuation potential of 1,471 billion H shares, indicating a 71% upside [30][31]. Summary by Sections China Metallurgical Group - The company has three operating mines and two mines awaiting development, with copper resources totaling 1,484 thousand tons [16][23]. - In the first half of 2025, the operating mines generated a profit of 5.5 billion yuan, a 29% increase year-on-year, contributing 18% to the company's net profit [16][18]. - The potential profit from the two awaiting mines is estimated at approximately 33 billion yuan, significantly enhancing the resource segment's contribution [23][29]. - The estimated total value of the company is 876 billion yuan, with a 23% upside compared to its current market value [23][27]. China Railway Group - The company operates five modern mines with significant copper and molybdenum reserves, leading to a 27% year-on-year increase in net profit from its resource segment [30][31]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 258 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 7.4% year-on-year [30][31]. - The estimated total value of the company is 1,872 billion yuan, with a 36% upside compared to its current market value [30][31]. - The company has seen a significant increase in new orders, with a 20% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in its construction segment [33][34]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - For China Metallurgical Group, the projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 61, 65, and 70 billion yuan, respectively [29]. - For China Railway Group, the projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 258, 253, and 255 billion yuan, respectively [30][31]. - Both companies are currently trading at low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating potential for valuation recovery [29][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in gold and silver prices due to lower-than-expected non-farm payroll data, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][34] - The outlook for gold and silver prices remains strong, with expectations of rising inflation and declining employment in the U.S. economy [1][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming economic data releases, particularly the CPI data on September 11 and the FOMC meeting on September 17 [1] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, while silver prices hit a yearly high due to increased interest rate cut expectations following disappointing U.S. employment data [1][34] - The U.S. non-farm payroll for August was reported at 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.3% [1][34] - The market's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut rose to 86% after the employment data release [1][34] - Key companies to watch include: Xinyi Silver Tin, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand in September and October [2] - Global copper inventories increased by 43,800 tons, with notable increases in China and LME [2] - Chile's copper exports for August were reported at 176,430 tons, with significant exports to China [2] - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to domestic and international policies, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.085 million tons in China [2] - Companies to focus on include: Luoyang Molybdenum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao [2] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are experiencing a downward trend, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 73,000 yuan/ton, down 6.3% [3] - Lithium production increased by 2% to 19,400 tons, with a utilization rate of 48% [3] - The demand for electric vehicles is expected to rise, with August sales of 1.1 million electric vehicles [3] - Companies to monitor include: Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Xizang Mining [3] Key Companies - The report lists several companies with investment ratings, including: - Shanjin International (Buy) [7] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) [7] - Luoyang Molybdenum (Buy) [7] - China Hongqiao (Buy) [7] - Zhongtung High-tech (Buy) [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key coal companies such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, and recommends attention to China Qinfa for potential turnaround opportunities [2][5]. Core Insights - The Indian government has adjusted the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on coal and related products from 5% to 18%, while removing a compensation cess of 400 INR per ton. This tax reform is expected to enhance tax transparency and management efficiency, potentially reducing the generation cost for Indian power companies by 0.12 INR per kWh [2]. - The report highlights a marginal adjustment in coal prices, with Newcastle coal at $108.25 per ton, down by $3.25 per ton (-2.91%) compared to the previous week [1][29]. - The report indicates a slight increase in natural gas prices, with the Northeast Asia LNG spot price at $11.292 per million British thermal units, up by $0.146 (+1.31%) [1][16]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report notes a decrease in coal prices across various markets, with European ARA coal at $95.75 per ton (-0.52%), and IPE South African Richards Bay coal at $87.3 per ton (-2.20%) [1][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of coal companies with strong performance metrics, recommending companies like Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Huainan Mining for their robust earnings [2][5]. Energy Prices - Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.5 per barrel, down by $2.62 (-3.85%), while WTI crude oil futures were at $61.87 per barrel, down by $2.14 (-3.34%) [1][12]. - The report also highlights the marginal increase in natural gas prices, with the Dutch TTF gas futures at €32.412 per megawatt hour, up by €0.853 (+2.70%) [1][16]. Power Demand - There is a noted marginal increase in coal power demand, indicating a potential recovery in the coal electricity sector [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a rebound, particularly in innovative drugs and their supply chains, with a strong emphasis on the potential for a second wave of innovation over the next 5-10 years [3][4][12] - The report indicates that the recent market adjustments have not altered the fundamental industry logic, and the core theme for innovative drugs is "disruption" [3][4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical index increased by 1.40% during the week of September 1-5, underperforming the ChiNext index but outperforming the CSI 300 index [12] - The market has shown a tendency for larger stocks to perform better than smaller ones, with innovative drugs and their supply chains being the main focus [2][3] 2. Recent Review - The report notes a significant rebound in the market after a period of adjustment, with innovative drugs remaining the strongest sector [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the recent adjustments in innovative drug stocks are primarily market-driven and do not reflect changes in industry fundamentals [3][4][14] 3. Future Outlook - The report suggests a continued focus on innovative drugs, particularly overseas large pharmaceuticals and small to mid-cap technology revolutions, with an optimistic outlook for 2025 [4][15] - Key investment themes include innovative drugs, new technologies like brain-computer interfaces and AI in medicine, and internationalization of research instruments and equipment [4][15][16] 4. Strategic Allocation - The report outlines specific companies to focus on within the innovative drug sector, including major players like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene, as well as smaller firms involved in gene therapy and weight loss drugs [16][17] - It also highlights opportunities in new technologies and internationalization, suggesting a diversified approach to investment within the pharmaceutical sector [16][18]