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非农下修衰退预期再起,看好金价上行
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-03 11:21
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the basic metals sector, with copper and aluminum prices experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand [4][10][20] - Precious metals are expected to see upward movement in gold prices driven by recession fears and adjustments in U.S. economic data [6][24] - The report highlights the stability in the rare earth sector, with expectations for improved fundamentals in the upcoming quarter [8] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Price has retreated to 78,170 CNY/ton, with low inventory providing some support despite seasonal demand weakness [4][13] - Aluminum: Prices have decreased, with the average price at 20,623 CNY/ton, influenced by rising social inventory and subdued market demand [5][20] - Precious Metals: Gold price averaged 767.63 CNY/gram, down 1.67%, while silver averaged 9,158 CNY/kg, down 1.44% [6][24] 2. Minor Metals - Antimony: Prices remain stable, with market dynamics showing limited supply and demand [7][40] - Lithium: Carbonate prices have dropped, reflecting a cooling market sentiment [40] - Cobalt: Prices are strong due to tight supply conditions, with cobalt intermediate prices rising [42][43] - Tin: Prices have declined, with the average price at 33,410 USD/ton, reflecting weakened macro sentiment [45] - Tungsten: Prices have increased across the board, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 195,500 CNY/ton [51] - Molybdenum: Prices have surged, with molybdenum concentrate averaging 4,315 CNY/ton, driven by strong market demand [61][62] 3. Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are stable, with light rare earth oxide prices increasing by 3.3% to 531,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for significant improvement in fundamentals [8]
海外经济跟踪周报20250803:关税和非农冲击,海外市场变盘-20250803
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-03 10:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas equity markets generally declined this week due to tariff concerns and economic data. Economic data showed potential slowdown risks, and the "disappointing" non - farm data on Friday intensified market concerns about economic momentum. Tariff policies also made investors cautious. The three major US stock indexes all fell by more than 2%. [1][10] - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts fluctuated greatly this week. After the FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped below 40% due to Powell's slightly hawkish stance, but soared above 80% after the "disappointing" non - farm data and the resignation of the hawkish Fed member Kugler. [2] - The US second - quarter GDP initial value showed an overall growth rate exceeding expectations, but the potential momentum weakened. Consumption was stable, while investment slowed down. [44] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity**: Overseas equities generally closed down. This was mainly affected by tariffs and economic data. The three major US stock indexes (S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq) fell by 2.36%, 2.92%, and 2.17% respectively. Other major overseas indexes also declined to varying degrees. [10] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar first rose and then fell, with a slight weekly gain. The US dollar index rose by 1.04%. The euro and the RMB against the US dollar fell by 1.32% and 0.11% respectively, while the yen against the US dollar rose by 0.19%. [10] - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields declined significantly. The 2Y US Treasury yield dropped 22bp, and the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped 17bp. [11] - **Commodities**: Gold and crude oil rose, while New York copper prices tumbled. COMEX gold rose 0.93%, COMEX copper dropped 23.88%, and WTI crude oil rose 3.37%. [11] 3.2 Overseas Policies and Important News 3.2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The FOMC meeting this week maintained the interest rate unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. It was the fifth consecutive time of keeping the rate unchanged since the December rate cut last year. The meeting statement was slightly dovish, while Fed Chairman Powell's stance was moderately hawkish. [26] - The market's expectation of the Fed's September rate cut first dropped and then soared. After the FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped below 40%, but after the "disappointing" non - farm data and Kugler's resignation, it rose above 80%. As of August 1, the market expected a 25bp rate cut in September with a probability of 80.3%, and three consecutive 25bp rate cuts in September, October, and December. [2][27] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting this week also maintained the interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations, but it raised the inflation forecast, causing the yen to rise against the US dollar. [27] 3.2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Trade Negotiations**: Sino - US economic and trade talks continued to postpone the 24% part of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. Trump signed an executive order to set the "new reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41%, and a 40% transit tax on transit goods. He also adjusted tariff policies for Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. [3][31] - **Personnel Changes**: Trump demanded the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director and the Fed member Kugler announced her resignation on August 8. These two personnel changes on Friday increased traders' bets on a September rate cut by the Fed. [3][31] - Trump's net satisfaction rate increased. As of August 1, his net satisfaction rate was - 5.1%, compared with - 7.0% a week ago. [32] 3.3 Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.3.1 Overall Prosperity - The bet on a US economic recession in 2025 on the Polymarket website dropped to 16% from 17% a week ago. The US weekly economic activity index rose slightly, while Germany's continued to decline. [4][37] - The US second - quarter GDP initial value showed an overall growth rate exceeding expectations, but the potential momentum weakened. After excluding the impact of net exports and inventory, the growth rate was lower than the previous value. [44] 3.3.2 Employment - The number of unemployment benefit recipients continued to decline, but the non - farm data was "disappointing". The number of initial jobless claims continued to be lower than expected, but the non - farm data on Friday was far below expectations, with the previous two months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations. [4][52] 3.3.3 Demand - US airport security checks and railway transportation were better than the same period last year. The Redbook commercial retail sales growth rate declined for three consecutive weeks. The real estate market remained sluggish. [54] 3.3.4 Production - The US production side remained prosperous, with crude steel production and refinery utilization rates continuing to be higher than the same period last year. [60] 3.3.5 Shipping - International freight rates declined. The Baltic Dry Index, Panamax Freight Index, and Cape - size Freight Index all dropped, and the container freight rates from Chinese ports also continued to fall. [63][64] 3.3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices were stable. The inflation expectations in the US declined this week, with the 1 - year inflation swap rate dropping by 0.04 percentage points and the 2 - year inflation swap rate dropping by 0.06 percentage points. [65][68] 3.3.7 Financial Conditions - The US financial pressure declined this week, with the OFR US financial stress index dropping and the credit spread narrowing. [70] 3.4 Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Key events next week include the Bank of England's interest rate meeting (the market expects a 25bp rate cut), the US July ISM services PMI, and the US June factory orders monthly rate. Attention should also be paid to the implementation of Trump's "new reciprocal tariffs" on August 7. [74]
美国非农弱于预期,降息周期有望重启
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-03 10:13
Domestic Economic Analysis - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to actively prepare for the "15th Five-Year Plan" and to complete the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][10] - The manufacturing PMI for July decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 50.1% [12][14] - Industrial profits in June showed a narrowing year-on-year decline of -4.3%, compared to -9.1% previously, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [19][21] - High-frequency indicators in transportation, such as subway passenger volume, showed a rebound, indicating some recovery in activity [26] International Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July were below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, significantly lower than the anticipated 110,000 [33] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.2%, reflecting a cooling labor market [33][34] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not lower interest rates in July, with future decisions dependent on economic data [33] Industry Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [3] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, which is showing signs of overheating [3] - Emphasis is placed on the need for structural monetary policy tools to support economic recovery and innovation in key industries [10][11]
中石化ROE提升来自哪些方面?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-03 06:46
Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [2] Core Insights - The marginal improvement in Sinopec's ROE shows positive signals from three main aspects: policy dividends reversing the "involution" in the chemical industry, the acceleration of refined oil consumption tax reform, and the alleviation of adverse factors such as high oil prices [8][15][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Sinopec's ROE Marginal Improvement - Sinopec's ROE is currently at a historically low level, with an average oil price of $80 per barrel in 2024, while the ROE level is only 6.2%. This is attributed to significant capacity growth in the domestic petrochemical sector over the past decade, leading to overcapacity and low profitability [8][9]. 2. Policy Dividends - The frequent introduction of "anti-involution" policies aims to improve the structure and supply of the petrochemical industry, eliminating backward production capacity and enhancing the competitive landscape [15][16]. 3. Reform of Refined Oil Consumption Tax - The reform of the refined oil consumption tax is expected to accelerate, with the government aiming to stimulate domestic demand and optimize the tax system. The consumption tax on refined oil is projected to be around 520 billion, making it the second-largest tax category [21][22][25]. 4. Alleviation of Adverse Factors - The supply of crude oil is expected to remain loose, with Brent oil prices fluctuating around $60-$80 per barrel, which is considered a comfortable range for Sinopec's performance [15][37]. 5. Historical Impact of Local Refineries - Local refineries have historically pressured Sinopec's market share and profit margins due to their lower prices and tax evasion practices. However, recent reforms are expected to reduce the market presence of these local refineries [26][30]. 6. Performance Elasticity under Different Oil Prices - The performance of Sinopec is expected to improve significantly when Brent oil prices are in the $60-$80 range, with the best performance projected at $70 per barrel, estimating a net profit of 465 billion and 621 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively [40][42].
戴维斯双击本周超额基准3.76%
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-03 04:43
Group 1: Davis Double Strategy - The Davis Double strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, waiting for growth to manifest, and then selling for a multiplier effect, achieving returns from both earnings per share (EPS) and PE increases [7][10] - The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08% [10] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 29.82%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 21.30%, with a weekly excess return of 3.76% [10][14] Group 2: Net Profit Gap Strategy - The Net Profit Gap strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises, and "gap" indicates a significant upward price jump on the first trading day after earnings announcements [12][14] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.83%, with an annualized excess return of 27.67% over the benchmark [14] - The current year's cumulative absolute return for the strategy is 35.44%, exceeding the benchmark index by 26.93%, with a weekly excess return of 0.43% [14] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, utilizing PB-ROE and PE-growth factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong earnings potential [16] - The strategy has shown stable excess returns historically, with a year-to-date excess return of 17.08% relative to the CSI 300 index, and a weekly excess return of 0.45% [16] - The portfolio's performance for the current year reflects a 20.13% absolute return, with a 17.08% excess return over the benchmark [16]
反内卷带动行业提质升级,重视专业工程投资机会
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-03 03:42
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" trend is driving quality upgrades in the industry, emphasizing investment opportunities in specialized engineering companies. This trend is expected to improve corporate profitability and increase capital expenditures in green and low-carbon transformations, benefiting specialized engineering firms [1][19][32] - The government is focusing on innovation-driven and green transformation, which is broader than the supply-side structural reforms of 2015. This includes enhancing industry self-discipline and optimizing supply structures through technological upgrades [2][13] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The construction index fell by 2.5% in the week of July 28 to August 1, underperforming the broader market by 1.3 percentage points. Only the architectural design and services sub-sector maintained an upward trend, with notable individual stock gains [4][26] Investment Recommendations - Key investment opportunities include: 1. Cement Engineering: China National Materials (high dividend cement engineering leader, expected dividend yield over 5% in 2025) [19] 2. Metallurgical Engineering: China Steel International (low-carbon metallurgical engineering leader, expected dividend yield of 5.5% in 2025) [19] 3. Steel Structure Manufacturing: Honglu Steel Structure, Jinggong Steel Structure [19] 4. Chemical Engineering: China Chemical, Sanwei Chemical, Donghua Technology, benefiting from rising chemical product prices [19] Key Indicators - As of August 1, 2025, the cement shipment rate was 30%, down 13 percentage points from the previous week, while the asphalt plant operating rate was 33.1%, up 4.3 percentage points [3][20] Structural Changes and Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of focusing on infrastructure investments in regions with high demand, such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangsu, and recommends local state-owned enterprises and central enterprises involved in major infrastructure projects [32][35] Emerging Trends - The report suggests that the nuclear power sector remains highly attractive, with ongoing investments, and highlights the potential of AI and digital technologies in transforming traditional industries [34][36] Specialized Engineering Investment Targets - The report lists specific companies in specialized engineering fields, including: - China National Materials (Cement) - China Steel International (Metallurgy) - Honglu Steel Structure (Steel Structure) - China Chemical (Chemicals) [20] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is positive towards the construction and specialized engineering sectors, driven by government policies aimed at enhancing industry quality and profitability through technological and structural upgrades [1][19][32]
有色金属行业首席联盟培训框架
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-02 09:45
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the supply-demand imbalance and rebalancing in the base metals sector, with a focus on the cyclical nature of recession and recovery [3][10] - In the precious metals sector, central bank gold purchases and a shift in risk appetite are expected to drive gold prices upward [4][26] - The small metals sector is characterized by cyclical demand trends, with both supply-demand tug-of-war and long-term opportunities [5][46] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector is anticipated to enter a new cycle, driven by the growing demand for high-performance materials in electric vehicles [6][65] - The report discusses the sandwich structure of investment in new metal materials, emphasizing long-term technological trends and short-term performance elasticity [7][80] Summary by Sections Base Metals - Base metals are closely tied to manufacturing and economic cycles, with copper facing supply constraints primarily at the mining level due to previous capital expenditure limitations [3][15] - Aluminum supply is bottlenecked at the smelting stage, with profitability per ton determining operational capacity [22][24] Precious Metals - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, contributing to rising demand [27][32] - The correlation between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields has shifted, indicating a market response to extreme risks [35][36] Small Metals - The small metals sector shows stronger price elasticity compared to industrial metals, with tungsten and tin being highlighted for their strategic importance and demand from the electronics sector [5][49][55] Rare Earths - The demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets is expected to grow, particularly in the automotive sector, while supply remains rigid [6][75] - The report notes a tightening supply-demand balance in the rare earth sector, driven by increasing demand from various applications [6][75] New Metal Materials - The investment framework for new metal materials is described as a sandwich structure, focusing on long-term trends, mid-term growth attributes, and short-term performance [7][80] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in semiconductor materials and high-performance applications driven by AI and power density trends [83][84]
拥挤度高位回落后的走势复盘:产业赛道与主题投资风向标
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-02 09:38
Core Insights - The report highlights that a high level of crowding in sectors may indicate a peak in short-term sentiment, leading to potential downward adjustments in those sectors [2][6] - It emphasizes that sectors supported by industrial trends or strong policy backing are likely to recover and achieve excess returns after a period of emotional digestion [2][6] Market Review - The report notes that during the week of July 21-25, the overall A-share market rose by 2.65%, with significant performance from sectors like hydropower and rare earths [2][78] - The average daily trading volume reached 1.8398 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [2][78] - The report also mentions a notable increase in the number of stocks rising, with 2,941 stocks up compared to the previous week [2][78] Key Themes - **Childcare Subsidies**: The introduction of a national childcare subsidy policy is expected to stabilize birth rates and positively impact sectors such as maternal and infant products, early education, and assisted reproduction [3][95] - **Anti-Competition Policies**: The report discusses the government's efforts to eliminate excessive competition, which is anticipated to lead to an orderly exit of outdated production capacity and promote high-quality industry development [3][98] - **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: The report highlights that business development (BD) transactions are opening up growth opportunities for innovative pharmaceutical companies, supported by favorable policies [3][101] Policy Dynamics - The report outlines several recent policy initiatives aimed at optimizing state-owned asset allocation and promoting high-quality urban development [3][104] - It mentions the emphasis on improving the quality of competition in various industries, particularly in sectors facing issues with low-price competition [3][98] Industry Trends - **Artificial Intelligence**: The report notes advancements in AI technology, including the launch of new AI products and participation in global AI governance discussions [3][104] - **Robotics**: The introduction of new robotic products is highlighted, indicating growth in the robotics sector [3][104] - **Biopharmaceuticals**: The report states that the approval of innovative drugs has significantly increased, with 43 new drugs approved in the first half of the year, marking a 59% year-on-year increase [3][104]
瑞幸咖啡:25Q2业绩点评:营收高增+盈利能力持续增强,门店扩张与国际化布局齐头并进
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-02 09:24
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [11] Core Insights - The company achieved total net revenue of 12.359 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.1%. Product sales revenue was 9.491 billion yuan, up 44.9%, while franchise store revenue reached 2.867 billion yuan, growing by 55.0% [1][3] - The company continues to expand its store network, adding 2,109 new stores in Q2 2025, bringing the total to 26,206 stores. The average monthly transaction customer count increased by over 22 million, reaching 91.7 million, a year-on-year growth of 31.6% [2][3] - The company reported a Non-GAAP net profit of 1.399 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit margin of 11.3%. The operating profit for self-operated stores was 1.922 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 21.0% [4] Revenue Summary - The company’s revenue growth is driven by both self-operated and franchise stores. Self-operated store revenue reached 9.136 billion yuan, up 45.6%, while same-store sales growth was 13.4%. Franchise store revenue was 2.867 billion yuan, up 55.0% [3] - The company has launched several innovative products, contributing to increased sales, including the "Feather Light Fruit and Vegetable Tea" which sold 11.2 million cups within two weeks of launch [3] Profit Summary - The profitability of franchise stores has improved, and the company is strengthening its supply chain. A long-term procurement agreement has been signed with Brazil, and a new roasting facility is expected to increase annual roasting capacity to 155,000 tons [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company will benefit from the growth strategy focused on scale, with a positive outlook on the coffee and new tea beverage sectors. Short-term attention is recommended on new products and supply chain optimization [5]
“固收+”基金研究:2025H1,“固收+”基金的制胜之道
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-02 07:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025H1, the performance of major asset classes showed a characteristic of "strong stocks and weak bonds." Convertible bond funds led the market, with a median return rate of 7.16%, outperforming stock - type and partial - stock hybrid funds. The overall performance of "fixed - income +" funds was better than that of pure - bond funds, and some funds performed brightly [1][10][15] - The top - performing "fixed - income +" funds in 2025H1 were mainly convertible - bond - enhanced funds. Stock - enhanced funds were concentrated in companies like Wells Fargo, China Asset Management, and Bosera. The top 30 list of ordinary "fixed - income +" funds was relatively scattered [2][48][51] - High - performing "fixed - income +" funds continued to overweight convertibles in sectors such as metals and mid - stream manufacturing, underweight bank convertibles, and also had a clear preference in stock investment, overweighting stocks in industries such as metals, military, TMT, and medicine [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 2025H1, How Did "Fixed - Income +" Funds Perform? 3.1.1 Stock - Strong and Bond - Weak, Convertible - Bond Funds Led the Market - In 2025H1, the performance of major asset classes showed a characteristic of "strong stocks and weak bonds." The equity market continued to recover and broke through key points, while the bond market oscillated and corrected. As of June 30, the Wind All - A Index recorded a 5.83% increase, and the CSI 2000 rose 15.24%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index recorded a 7.02% positive return, outperforming major broad - based stock indexes [10] - Convertible - bond funds led the market, with a median return rate of 7.16% in 2025H1, significantly outperforming stock - type and partial - stock hybrid funds. In the expectation of a better - performing equity market, the share of passive index - type and hybrid bonds increased significantly, while pure - bond funds were heavily redeemed [15][16] 3.1.2 The Net Value of "Fixed - Income +" Funds Recovered, and the Convertible - Bond Strategy Was Superior - After re - defining "fixed - income +" funds based on post - event asset allocation and classifying them into 7 sub - categories within 3 major categories, as of 2025Q2, 1418 "fixed - income +" funds had a total share of 1148.329 billion, a 16.54% increase from the end of 2024, and a total net asset value of 1496.58 billion, a 17.23% increase from the end of 2024 [27][28] - By the end of 2025H1, the stock and convertible - bond positions of "fixed - income +" funds decreased slightly. The market value of stocks held increased by 10.71% to 160.9 billion, while the market value of convertible bonds decreased by 4.92% to 255.8 billion. The stock position decreased by 0.63 pct to 10.75%, the convertible - bond position decreased by 3.98 pct to 17.09%, and the bond position increased by 0.86 pct to 99.48% [34] - Over 90% of "fixed - income +" funds had positive returns in 2025H1, and overall, they had good drawdown control. Convertible - bond - enhanced funds performed brightly but had a slightly higher drawdown range [40][44] 3.2 Which High - Performing "Fixed - Income +" Funds Led the Market? 3.2.1 Performance Review of Existing "Fixed - Income +" Funds - Among the top 30 funds with the highest interval returns in 2025H1, 26 were convertible - bond - enhanced funds, 2 were ordinary "fixed - income +" funds, and 2 were stock - enhanced funds. Huashang Fund had multiple convertible - bond - enhanced funds on the list. If only considering funds with a share of over 200 million, 28 convertible - bond - enhanced funds were on the list, along with 1 ordinary stock - enhanced fund and 1 ordinary "fixed - income +" fund [2][48] - The top 30 stock - enhanced funds in 2025H1 were concentrated in fund companies such as Wells Fargo, China Asset Management, and Bosera. Their asset - allocation strategies were somewhat differentiated, with some having a convertible - bond position of over 15%, while most held little or no convertible bonds [51] - The top 30 convertible - bond - enhanced funds in 2025H1 were mostly high - convertible - bond - position funds, distributed among various fund companies. Wells Fargo Jiuli and Huashang Fengli led the market, and China Europe Convertible Bond performed well in the convertible - bond fund category [2][52] 3.2.2 Performance Review of Newly - Issued "Fixed - Income +" Funds - Among the potentially high - performing "fixed - income +" funds newly established since 2023Q3, the top 30 were mostly secondary - bond funds (23). Except for China Merchants Anze Wenli, the returns in 2025H1 were all within 5%, and the maximum drawdown was mostly within 2% [2][56] - China Merchants Anze Wenli recorded a 6.17% positive return in 2025H1 with a maximum drawdown of 4.91%. It is a partial - bond hybrid fund, and the equity - class position contributed highly to the overall return [56] 3.3 What Are the Characteristics of the Holdings of High - Performing "Fixed - Income +" Funds? 3.3.1 History: What Directions Did High - Performing Funds Invest In? - At the end of 2024Q4 and 2025Q1, various top "fixed - income +" funds significantly overweighted manufacturing - chain convertible bonds and underweighted bank convertible bonds. They also overweighted partial - stock and high - price convertible bonds and underweighted high - rating convertible bonds. In terms of stock industry allocation, they overweighted leading - rising industries such as metals, machinery, electronics, and computers and underweighted industries that declined significantly in 2025Q1 [3] 3.3.2 Present: Where Are High - Performing Funds Investing? - High - performing "fixed - income +" funds continue to significantly overweight convertible bonds in sectors such as metals and mid - stream manufacturing, underweight bank convertible bonds, overweight high - price convertible bonds above 130 yuan and partial - stock convertible bonds, and underweight medium - price convertible bonds between 110 - 120 yuan [3] - They significantly overweight stocks in industries such as metals, military, TMT, medicine, and light manufacturing, underweight cyclical and financial - type industry stocks, and significantly overweight small - and medium - cap stocks with a market value between 10 - 50 billion [3]