行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 22 周周报：猪价中枢持续回落，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1、生猪板块：猪价中枢持续回落，主动&被动因素加大去化概率，重视生猪板块预期差！1）本周猪价&仔 猪价格偏弱。本周全国生猪均价 14.41 元/kg，环比下跌 0.69%（涌益），周度均价创年内新低，行业自繁自养 盈利约 129 元/头，环比-13 元/头；本周 7kg 仔猪和 50kg 二元母猪价格为 501 元/头和 1628 元/头，环比继 续偏弱。供应端，本周出栏均重为 129.18kg（环比-0.15%），150kg 以上生猪出栏占比为 4.92%（环比-0.06pct）， 小部分区域猪病增加，或加快行业出栏进度；需求端，本周消费端受端午备货支撑，终端消费表现回暖，带 动屠企宰杀意愿增强，本周日度屠宰样本日均宰杀量环比+1.99%。端午备货过后，消费或有降级，叠加气温 升高，猪肉进入年内季节性消费疲软期，且近期肥标价差倒挂加速前期大猪出栏，猪价或呈季节性走弱趋势， 行业或再度进入亏损状态。且南方雨季或带动猪病有所反复（历年 6-7 月份 90 kg 以下生猪出栏占比提升）， 或加 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant breakthroughs in China's controllable nuclear fusion technology, with the "Chinese Circulation No. 3" achieving a plasma current of one million amperes and ion temperature reaching 100 million degrees, marking a new high in fusion parameters [3][6] - The advancements in nuclear fusion technology position China as a leader in the field, paving the way for future commercialization and potential growth opportunities for related upstream and downstream enterprises [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the continuous progress in controllable nuclear fusion technology in China, with key projects like the "Xuanlong-50U" achieving critical engineering breakthroughs [3][4] - The comprehensive parameters of fusion triple product have reached the order of 10^20, indicating significant advancements in the field [3] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include: - Lianchuang Optoelectronics, a leading supplier of high-temperature superconducting magnets, which are crucial for compact tokamak devices [4] - Yongding Co., a major supplier of high-temperature superconducting strips [4] - Guoguang Electric, which provides various components for controllable nuclear fusion devices [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [10] Core Viewpoints - The pig price center continues to decline, with both active and passive factors increasing the probability of destocking, highlighting the expected difference in the pig sector [2][14] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly rising, indicating strong growth resilience in pet consumption [3][16] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white chickens and the marginal improvement in demand for yellow chickens [4][18] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average national pig price is 14.41 yuan/kg, down 0.69% week-on-week, marking a new low for the year, with self-breeding profits around 129 yuan/head, down 13 yuan/head [2][14] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in average weight for slaughtered pigs, while demand is supported by pre-festival stocking, but may decline post-festival due to seasonal consumption fatigue [2][14] - The sector is characterized by low valuations and expected differences, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs being highlighted for their profitability [2][15] Pet Sector - The 618 pre-sale event on Taobao showed strong sales for domestic brands, with significant growth in live-streaming channels [3][16] - Pet food exports have seen continuous growth, with 11.02 million tons exported in the first four months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.17% [3][16] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., with a focus on companies with high domestic income growth [3][17] Poultry Sector - The uncertainty in breeding imports for white chickens remains, with a significant decline in breeding stock updates [4][18] - The yellow chicken supply is confirmed to be shrinking, with prices sensitive to demand changes, suggesting potential benefits from a recovery in consumption [5][21] - The egg-laying chicken sector is experiencing high prices due to restricted imports, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Xiaoming Co. due to their market share advantages [6][22] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving high yields through the integration of good land, good seeds, good machinery, and good practices, contributing significantly to national food security [7][23] - The emphasis on biotechnology and precision breeding is expected to enhance agricultural competitiveness, with leading seed companies recommended [7][23] Feed and Animal Health Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended for its market share increase and consistent performance in the feed sector [8][25] - The animal health sector is adapting to new demands and competition, with a focus on innovative products and potential growth in pet health products [8][26]

据 Wind，0524-0531 一周，30 个大中城市商品房销售面积 216.79 万平 米，同比-2.46%。2025 年《政府工作报告》中指出要"持续用力推动房地 产市场止跌回稳"，在政策导向上给予房地产业发展支持。据住房城乡建设 部、财政部、中国人民银行印发的《全国住房公积金 2024 年年度报告》 显示，2024 年，我国住房公积金制度惠及面不断扩大，全国共发放住房公 积金贷款超 1.3 万亿元，政策支持力度不断加大，打好政策组合拳，推动 建设安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的"好房子"。 上周长三角地区水泥熟料价格公布上涨 30 元/吨，同时企业计划在 6-8 月 份执行错峰生产，其中 6 月份错峰 12 天，若落实情况好，则 7-8 月继续 执行每月 12-15 天。5 月份水泥整体出货率达 48%，环比基本持平，同比- 6pct，同比降幅较 4 月份有所扩大，当前需求端持续偏弱，二季度以来水 泥价格呈现持续下滑趋势，一方面因为需求表现低于预期，另一方面系前 期盈利有所好转后，市场抢量情况有所加剧，当前时点价已基本跌回涨前 水平，而此次长三角熟料涨价彰显出企业重新调整预期，稳价格、保利润 的积极心态。Q2 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 周新宇 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524070007 zhouxinyu@tfzq.com 2025 年 06 月 02 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 吴立 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517010002 wuli1@tfzq.com 中国可控核聚变技术持续取得重大突破，重点关注核聚变产业链！ 我国可控核聚变装置取得重大突破，综合参数聚变三乘积达到 10 的 20 次方量级。近日，中核 集团核工业西南物理研究院宣布，新一代人造太阳"中国环流三号"实现了百万安培亿度高约 束模式（H 模）运行，等离子体电流达到一百万安培，离子温度达到 1 亿度，综合参数聚变三 乘积再创新高，达到 10 的 20 次方量级。 自 2020 年 12 月建成并实现首次等离子体放电以来，"中国环流三号"已多次刷新我国可控核 聚变装置运行纪录： 行业走势图 -12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 中小市值 沪深300 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Fund Position Estimation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to estimate the complete stock holdings of public funds based on disclosed top 10 heavy holdings and industry allocation information, addressing the time lag in fund reports[2][8][9] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use quarterly fund reports to obtain the top 10 heavy holdings and industry allocation data[9] 2. Combine this with the top 10 shareholders' information from listed companies[8] 3. Assume that non-heavy holdings remain unchanged in terms of stock types across two periods, with only proportional weight adjustments[10] 4. Scale the weights of non-heavy holdings from the previous period (T-1) to simulate the current period (T) non-heavy holdings[10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a practical approach to estimate fund positions with limited disclosed data, though it relies on assumptions about non-heavy holdings' stability[8][10] - **Model Name**: Fund Style Monitoring Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model monitors the daily style exposure of public funds by decomposing their stock holdings into large-cap and small-cap components[3][11] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use simulated fund holdings to estimate stock positions[11] 2. Decompose stock holdings into large-cap and small-cap components[3] 3. Apply weighted least squares regression using fund daily returns and large-cap/small-cap index daily returns to estimate fund allocations to large-cap and small-cap portfolios[11] 4. Monitor fund positions daily and analyze style changes across dimensions such as size exposure and industry allocation[3][11] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures dynamic changes in fund styles, providing insights into size and industry exposures[3][11] Model Backtesting Results - **Fund Position Estimation Model**: - Median stock position for equity funds: 87.39% as of 2025-05-30, up 0.10% from two weeks prior[4][16] - Median stock position for hybrid funds: 83.76% as of 2025-05-30, down 0.18% from two weeks prior[4][16] - Large-cap allocation changes: +2.48% for equity funds, +1.34% for hybrid funds[4][16] - Small-cap allocation changes: -2.37% for equity funds, -1.52% for hybrid funds[4][16] - **Fund Style Monitoring Model**: - Equity funds' large-cap allocation: 44.2%, small-cap allocation: 43.2% as of 2025-05-30[15] - Hybrid funds' large-cap allocation: 36.8%, small-cap allocation: 47.0% as of 2025-05-30[15] - Current position percentiles (2016 onwards): 34.43% for equity funds, 35.04% for hybrid funds[16] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Size Allocation Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor quantifies the allocation of fund holdings to large-cap and small-cap stocks[3][11] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Decompose fund holdings into large-cap and small-cap components based on simulated positions[11] 2. Use weighted least squares regression to estimate allocation weights for large-cap and small-cap portfolios[11] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a clear measure of size exposure, aiding in understanding fund style dynamics[3][11] - **Factor Name**: Industry Allocation Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weight of fund holdings in different industries based on simulated positions[3][24] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Classify stocks into industries using the CITIC Level-1 industry classification[24] 2. Calculate the weight of each industry in the fund's simulated holdings[24] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures industry preferences and shifts in fund allocations[24] Factor Backtesting Results - **Size Allocation Factor**: - Equity funds: Large-cap 44.2%, Small-cap 43.2% as of 2025-05-30[15] - Hybrid funds: Large-cap 36.8%, Small-cap 47.0% as of 2025-05-30[15] - **Industry Allocation Factor**: - Top industries for equity funds: Electronics (14.32%), Medicine (10.99%), Electrical Equipment (9.29%), Machinery (6.51%), Food & Beverage (8.46%)[20] - Top industries for hybrid funds: Electronics (16.46%), Medicine (9.29%), Electrical Equipment (8.36%), Machinery (8.00%), Food & Beverage (6.10%)[20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter an accelerated development phase in 2025, driven by rapid store expansion, the acquisition of Qinglu, and the growth of the group meal business [3][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.45%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 37 million yuan, a decrease of 6.13% [1][2]. Revenue Summary - The company plans to add 1,000 new stores by 2025, reaching a total of 6,000 stores, with a narrowing gap in single-store performance expected to be more evident in Q2 and Q3 [2][3]. - The group meal business is actively collaborating with major clients like Yonghui, which is expected to gradually increase volume [2][3]. Profit Summary - The gross profit margin stabilized, while the expense ratio decreased, with interest income impacting the non-recurring profit [2]. - The non-recurring net profit margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 10.5%, and the net profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points [2]. Financial Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 10% for 2025, 9% for 2026, and 8% for 2027, with total revenues expected to be 1.85 billion yuan, 2.01 billion yuan, and 2.17 billion yuan respectively [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 270 million yuan in 2025, with growth rates of -3.9%, +10.3%, and +11.3% for the following years [3][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 1,846.34 million yuan, with a growth rate of 10.46% [5]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 18X for 2025, 16X for 2026, and 14X for 2027 [3][5].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recent surge in AI glasses releases, indicating a growing market for AI glasses as a new frontier for large models [9] - The performance of major overseas tech companies, such as Nvidia and Microsoft, has been strong, with significant revenue growth driven by AI contributions [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of Micro OLED technology and its expanding applications in various sectors, including AR glasses [9] Summary by Sections AI Glasses Market - Multiple domestic AI glasses have been launched recently, with notable products from companies like Raybird and Rokid, indicating a trend towards integrating AI capabilities into consumer electronics [4][12] - Raybird's new flagship AR glasses, RayNeo X3 Pro, feature advanced technology such as Micro-LED displays and a Snapdragon AR1 platform, enhancing user experience and energy efficiency [12][14] - Rokid has partnered with Gaode Map to introduce a smart navigation application for its AR glasses, aiming to improve user interaction through voice and visual cues [18][19] - The market for AR glasses is heating up, leading to increased investment in upstream near-eye display projects, with several domestic companies expanding their Micro OLED production capacity [22][23] Overseas Tech Performance - Nvidia reported Q1 2026 revenue of $44.062 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, with significant growth in data center and gaming sectors [34] - Microsoft's Q3 2025 revenue reached $70.1 billion, a 13% increase, driven by strong performance in its cloud services, particularly Azure [38][41] - Meta's Q1 2025 revenue was $42.314 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth, with substantial investments planned for AI infrastructure [34] Micro OLED Technology - The report notes that Micro OLED technology is expected to see further development in 2025, with increased investment in related projects to meet rising demand [23] - Companies like Yisui Technology are investing heavily in Micro OLED production capabilities, anticipating a growing market for these displays in various applications [25]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 06 月 02 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 潘暕 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517070005 panjian@tfzq.com 许俊峰 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110520110003 xujunfeng@tfzq.com 包恒星 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524100001 baohengxing@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -12% -4% 4% 12% 20% 28% 36% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 消费电子 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《消费电子-行业研究周报:小米玄戒 O1 发布，赋能"人车家"AI 生态进阶》 2025-05-25 3 《消费电子-行业专题研究:英伟达虚 拟仿真技术主导，驱动人形机器人行 业》 2025-05-20 消费电子 证券研究报告 AI 眼镜密集发布，看好软硬件方案成熟带动渗透率提升 AI 眼镜：雷鸟、Rokid、李未可等 AI眼镜发布，看好 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 105.7 CNY, based on a 35X PE for 2025 [5][48]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the precision stamping special steel materials sector for twenty years and is now venturing into the humanoid robot field, applying its materials innovatively in harmonic and planetary gear reducers [1][12]. - The domestic automotive market shows strong demand for precision stamping materials, with opportunities for domestic substitution as the country still relies on imports for high-end materials [2][28]. - The company has developed significant core technologies in precision cold rolling and heat treatment, allowing it to compete effectively with international giants like Wills, offering products at 30%-50% lower prices than foreign competitors [2][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in customized precision stamping special steel materials, primarily used in various automotive components, and plans to expand into the robot sector by 2024 [1][12]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the chairman holding 30.16% of the shares, which is favorable for long-term development [14]. Main Business - The demand for precision stamping materials in the automotive sector is robust, with a current market demand of approximately 1 million tons per year in China [2][28]. - The company has maintained a strong focus on independent research and development, achieving performance levels close to international competitors [2][32]. - The new plant in Anhui is expected to add 150,000 tons of capacity, expanding the company's total capacity to 300,000 tons [2][34]. Robotics Sector - The company is innovatively applying precision stamping technology to the harmonic reducer flexible wheel material, which is crucial for reducing costs and improving efficiency in humanoid robot production [3][38]. - The flexible wheel's quality is critical for the fatigue life of harmonic reducers, which are essential components in humanoid robots [38]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 1.78 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 20%, and net profit is expected to be 245 million CNY, growing by 18.45% [4][45]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins as it expands into high-end markets [4][45]. Valuation - The report compares the company with peers like Siling Co., Longsheng Technology, and Keda Li, with an average valuation of 41X for 2025, leading to a target PE of 35X for the company [48][49].