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港股周报(2025.05.26-2025.05.30):南下资金持续流入,香港稳定币法案落地-20250603
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-03 06:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [27] - The industry investment rating is "Outperform," suggesting an expected industry index increase of over 5% within the same timeframe [27] Core Insights - Southbound capital continues to flow into Hong Kong, with a net purchase of 25.8 billion yuan in the past week, totaling 610.7 billion yuan year-to-date, which is 82% of the total net purchase for 2024 [1] - The report highlights the low valuation of internet companies, with projected P/E ratios for 2025 for major players like Alibaba at 12, Tencent at 17, and Meituan at 14 [1] - The recent passing of the "Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance" marks a significant step for Hong Kong in the digital asset space, aiming to promote financial innovation while maintaining stability [3][7] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,289.77 points, down approximately 1.32% for the week [10] - The report notes that several indices will undergo significant adjustments, with companies like Blukoo and Miexue Group being added to the Hang Seng Composite Index on June 9 [3] Company Performance - Meituan reported Q1 2025 revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit increasing by 46.2% [8] - Xiaomi's Q1 2025 revenue reached 111.3 billion yuan, a 47.4% increase, with significant growth in its electric vehicle and AI sectors [9] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of companies like Kuaishou and Pinduoduo, with Kuaishou's projected P/E for 2025 at 9 [20] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sectors such as the IP economy, with companies like Pop Mart and Bilibili showing strong potential due to their diverse IP reserves [2] - The automotive sector is highlighted, with companies like Xpeng and Li Auto expected to benefit from new model launches and improved sales performance [2][4] - The report recommends monitoring the performance of laser radar companies like Hesai Technology, which are poised to benefit from the increasing penetration of intelligent driving technologies [2][4]
全球AI周报:英伟达NVL72机柜单加速出货,DeepSeek成全球第二大AI实验室
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-03 00:30
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected industry index increase of over 5% in the next six months [48]. Core Insights - Despite macroeconomic and trade policy disruptions, major US tech companies continue to invest in AI, with Nvidia's Q1 earnings exceeding expectations and data center revenue growing by 73% year-on-year [3][6]. - Salesforce's AI Agent platform, Agentforce, has signed over 8,000 contracts, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassing $1 billion, marking significant commercial progress in AI [3][18]. - DeepSeek has upgraded its R1 model, achieving a 87.5% accuracy in complex reasoning tasks, positioning it as the second-largest AI lab globally, reflecting China's advancements in AI model development [7][30]. Summary by Sections Global AI Dynamics - Nvidia's Q1 revenue reached $44.1 billion, a 69% year-on-year increase, with data center revenue at $39.1 billion, growing 73% [6][14]. - Salesforce's overall performance exceeded expectations, with a 8% year-on-year revenue growth to $9.83 billion, and a significant increase in AI-related revenue [3][18]. - DeepSeek's R1 model upgrade has significantly improved its reasoning capabilities, achieving a 87.5% accuracy in AIME 2025 tests, indicating a strong competitive position against top international models [29][35]. Company Performance - Nvidia's data center business is experiencing accelerated deployment of NVL72 cabinets, with major cloud providers deploying nearly 1,000 units weekly [3][10]. - Salesforce's Data Cloud revenue exceeded $1 billion, growing over 120% year-on-year, showcasing the increasing demand for enterprise AI solutions [3][18]. - Kuaishou's Keling AI model generated over 150 million yuan in Q1 2025, capturing a 30% market share in the text-to-video sector [36][40]. AI Model Developments - DeepSeek's R1 model has shown significant improvements in various benchmarks, indicating a narrowing gap between Chinese and US AI capabilities [30][35]. - ByteDance's open-source multimodal model, BAGEL, has outperformed existing models in multiple evaluation benchmarks, demonstrating advanced capabilities in understanding and generating text, images, and videos [41][43].
天风证券晨会集萃-20250603
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-02 23:42
证券研究报告 | 2025 年 06 月 03 日 晨会集萃 制作:产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|A 股动静框架之静态指标》 1)资产联动指标中股债相关指标显示,目前股票相对债券的配置价值在 长周期上仍处高位,ERP 处于 1 倍标准差之上;市场配置指标方面,目前 全 A 指数 PE 估值为 18.9,大部分宽基指数 PE 估值历史分位数位于 50% 以下及附近水平,创业板指 PE 估值历史分位数低于 10%,估值相对偏低, 估值分化程度较上月小幅减小。2)市场交易/情绪指标方面,换手率、成 交额占前高比例等持续下滑,表明市场交易热度依然处于降温状态,行业 趋势指标较上月未有明显变化,而个股趋势指标表明 50 周均线上方的个 股比例较上月有所下滑。3)投资者行为方面,回购规模较上月再次大幅 上升,而产业资本减持规模大幅走阔,主体资金流较上月小幅回落,其中 港股国际中介和新成立基金份额较上月相比出现下滑迹象。4)综上来看, 5 月交易类指标环比持续下滑,表明市场交易情绪依然处于阶段性低位, 同时资产联动指标、市场配置指标指向市场向上的潜在空间依然较大,另 外在投资者行为方面,回购规模环比持续大幅上升,产业资本净减 ...
全球AI周报:英伟达NVL72机柜单加速出货,DeepSeek成全球第二大AI实验室-20250602
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-02 14:53
证券研究报告 2025年06月02日 海外行业报告:行业动态研究 英伟达NVL72机柜单加速出货,DeepSeek成全球第二大AI实验室 全球AI周报 作者: 分析师 孔蓉 SAC执业证书编号:S1110521020002 分析师 李泽宇 SAC执业证书编号:S1110520110002 分析师 樊程安吉 SAC执业证书编号:S1110524080001 分析师 杨雨辰 SAC执业证书编号:S1110521110001 分析师 刘诗雨 SAC执业证书编号:S1110524120001 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 ◼ 重点公司财报AI进展 摘要 ◼ 全球AI动态: ◼ 投资建议: ➢ 海外AI: ➢ 尽管年内宏观及贸易政策扰动仍存,但从最新财报节奏看,美股科技大厂对AI的资本投入与应用商业化均未放缓,且从本周英伟达财报得以验证,供应链方面的影响正在逐步减弱,AI主线逻辑持续强化。(1)英伟达财报超预期, CSP机柜部署提速验证AI推理需求高增。英伟达Q1财报整体超预期,数据中心业务同比增长73%,NVL72出货节奏显著提速——主流超大规模云厂商平均每周部署近1,000个机柜,代表AI推理侧投资周 ...
6月,以稳应变A股动静框架之静态指标
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-02 12:41
策略报告:投资策略 证券研究报告 2025年06月02日 6月,以稳应变 A股动静框架之静态指标 作者: 分析师 吴开达 SAC执业证书编号:S1110524030001 分析师 林晨 SAC执业证书编号:S1110524040002 联系人 汪书慧 联系人 陈英奇 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 摘要 交易情绪依然处于低点、市场配置指标有所改善、资产联动指标依然位于极值位置。我们将4大类指标展开进行分析,最新监测结论如下表所示: 1)资产联动指标中股债相关指标显示目前股票相对债券的配置价值在长周期上仍处高位,ERP处于1倍标准差之上;市场配置指标方面,目前全A 指数PE估值为18.9,大部分宽基指数PE估值历史分位数位于50%以下及附近水平,创业板指PE估值历史分位数低于10%,估值相对偏低,估值分化 程度较上月小幅减小。 2)市场交易/情绪指标方面,换手率、成交额占前高比例等持续下滑,表明市场交易热度依然处于降温状态,行业趋势指标较上月未有明显变化, 而个股趋势指标表明50周均线上方的个股比例较上月有所下滑。 3)投资者行为方面,回购规模较上月再次大幅上升,而产业资本减持规模大幅走阔,主体资金 ...
通信行业研究周报:英伟达一季报超预期,AI产业持续向好
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-02 12:23
Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The AI industry is viewed as the main investment theme for the year, with expectations for continued high prosperity in the AI sector and the AIDC industry chain [3][25] - The report highlights the potential for 2025 to be a pivotal year for domestic AI infrastructure competition and application development [3][25] - There is a strong recommendation to focus on investment opportunities in AI applications and related dynamics [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations include: - Optical modules & optical devices: Focus on companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology [4][28] - Switch server PCBs: Recommended companies include Hudian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [4][28] - Low valuation, high dividend companies: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom are highlighted for resource revaluation [4][28] - AIDC & cooling: Key recommendations include Yingweike and Runze Technology [4][28] - AIGC applications/edge computing: Focus on companies like Guohua Communication and Meige Intelligent [4][28] 2. Marine Wind and Cable & Intelligent Driving - Marine wind cable: Recommended companies include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [5][29] - Recovery in overseas markets: Key recommendations include Huace Navigation and Weisheng Information [5][29] - Intelligent driving: Suggested focus on modules & terminals, sensors, and connectors [5][29] 3. Satellite Internet & Low Altitude Economy - Accelerated development in low-orbit satellites and low-altitude economy: Recommended companies include Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [5][30] 4. Recent Industry Dynamics - NVIDIA reported a first-quarter revenue of $44.1 billion, a 12% increase from the previous quarter and a 69% increase year-over-year [2][16] - The report notes the expected revenue for the second quarter of 2026 to reach $45 billion, reflecting a significant impact from recent export control policies [2][16] - The AI industry continues to see advancements, with companies like OpenAI expanding their global presence [10][11]
英伟达一季报超预期,AI产业持续向好
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-02 11:11
行业报告 | 行业研究周报 通信 证券研究报告 英伟达一季报超预期,AI 产业持续向好 本周行业动态: DeepSeek 宣布 R1 小版本试升级:实测编程能力已达到国际一线水平 近日,DeepSeek 在官方交流群中发布通知:DeepSeek R1 模型已完成小版本试升 级,欢迎前往官方网页、App、小程序测试,API 接口和使用方式保持不变。有人 实测了开源 R1 最新 0528 版本,其编程能力已达到国际一线水平。此外,无论是 网页生成、小游戏制作,还是复杂的绘图板 Bug 修复、图片画廊灯箱效果,R1 新 版都展现了极强的代码生成、理解和修正能力,部分任务表现优于 Claude 4。 NVIDIA 发布 2026 财年第一季度财务报告 NVIDIA 发布一季报,第一季度收入为 441 亿美元,较上一季度增长 12%,较去年 同期增长 69%。NVIDIA 对 2026 财年第二季度的展望:收入预计将达 450 亿美元, 上下浮动 2%。GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率预计分别为 71.8%和 72.0%,上下浮动 50 个 基准点,公司正持续优化毛利率,力争今年末将毛利率提升至 70%区间中位水平。 ...
建筑材料行业研究周报:长三角熟料价格开始推涨,市场信心有望重塑
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-02 10:23
Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement clinker price in the Yangtze River Delta has increased by 30 CNY/ton, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment and a proactive approach from companies to stabilize prices and protect profits [3][14] - The overall cement shipment rate in May was 48%, showing a slight decline year-on-year, but the recent price increase is expected to boost market confidence [3][17] - The report highlights that traditional building materials are nearing a cyclical bottom, while new materials are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to high demand and domestic substitution opportunities [19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while the building materials sector rose by 0.59%, with the ceramics sector showing the highest increase of 3.77% [12][17] - Key stocks in the recommended portfolio include Zhongcai Technology (+5.1%), Western Cement (+4.1%), and others [12][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 2.46% year-on-year, but government policies are aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2][14] - The report anticipates that cement prices will rise following the clinker price increase, supported by a decrease in coal prices [3][14] Key Sub-Industries Tracking - Cement: The national average price fell by 0.8%, but the Yangtze River Delta has initiated price increases, indicating potential stabilization in the market [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market is under pressure, with prices declining, while float glass prices have also seen a slight decrease [18][19] - Fiberglass: The market for alkali-free yarn continues to decline, with prices dropping by 0.62% week-on-week [19] Long-term Value and Growth Potential - Traditional building material leaders are expected to show significant long-term value, while new energy materials are likely to continue their growth [19] - Recommendations include companies like Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, and others that are positioned to benefit from improving infrastructure and real estate demand [19]
农林牧渔2025年第22周周报:猪价中枢持续回落,重视生猪板块预期差!
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-02 10:23
行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 22 周周报:猪价中枢持续回落,重视生猪板块预期差! 1、生猪板块:猪价中枢持续回落,主动&被动因素加大去化概率,重视生猪板块预期差!1)本周猪价&仔 猪价格偏弱。本周全国生猪均价 14.41 元/kg,环比下跌 0.69%(涌益),周度均价创年内新低,行业自繁自养 盈利约 129 元/头,环比-13 元/头;本周 7kg 仔猪和 50kg 二元母猪价格为 501 元/头和 1628 元/头,环比继 续偏弱。供应端,本周出栏均重为 129.18kg(环比-0.15%),150kg 以上生猪出栏占比为 4.92%(环比-0.06pct), 小部分区域猪病增加,或加快行业出栏进度;需求端,本周消费端受端午备货支撑,终端消费表现回暖,带 动屠企宰杀意愿增强,本周日度屠宰样本日均宰杀量环比+1.99%。端午备货过后,消费或有降级,叠加气温 升高,猪肉进入年内季节性消费疲软期,且近期肥标价差倒挂加速前期大猪出栏,猪价或呈季节性走弱趋势, 行业或再度进入亏损状态。且南方雨季或带动猪病有所反复(历年 6-7 月份 90 kg 以下生猪出栏占比提升), 或加 ...
新兴产业行业研究周报:中国可控核聚变技术持续取得重大突破,重点关注核聚变产业链!
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-02 10:23
Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant breakthroughs in China's controllable nuclear fusion technology, with the "Chinese Circulation No. 3" achieving a plasma current of one million amperes and ion temperature reaching 100 million degrees, marking a new high in fusion parameters [3][6] - The advancements in nuclear fusion technology position China as a leader in the field, paving the way for future commercialization and potential growth opportunities for related upstream and downstream enterprises [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the continuous progress in controllable nuclear fusion technology in China, with key projects like the "Xuanlong-50U" achieving critical engineering breakthroughs [3][4] - The comprehensive parameters of fusion triple product have reached the order of 10^20, indicating significant advancements in the field [3] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include: - Lianchuang Optoelectronics, a leading supplier of high-temperature superconducting magnets, which are crucial for compact tokamak devices [4] - Yongding Co., a major supplier of high-temperature superconducting strips [4] - Guoguang Electric, which provides various components for controllable nuclear fusion devices [4]