Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a recovery in consumer expectations, particularly in the home furnishing sector, with a potential turning point in the fundamentals [2] - It emphasizes the benefits of policy support and high-growth segments, recommending companies with strong product upgrades and e-commerce channels [2] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the lens industry that possess core R&D capabilities and strong brand development [2] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes a recovery in the home furnishing sector driven by increased transactions in the second-hand housing market and improved consumer confidence, predicting better performance during the 315 promotional event compared to last year [8] - Key companies to watch include custom furniture leaders such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home, as well as soft furniture leaders like Mousse and Kuka [8] Paper and Packaging - As of March 14, 2025, prices for various paper products remained stable, with double glue paper at 5450 CNY/ton, copper plate paper at 5820 CNY/ton, and box board paper at 3639.2 CNY/ton, which saw a decrease of 47.2 CNY/ton [8] - The report recommends companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology, which are expected to benefit from improved industry dynamics [8] Light Industry Consumption - The report mentions Meta's collaboration with Ray-Ban to launch limited edition AI glasses, which could drive demand for smart eyewear [8] - It also highlights the recovery of domestic consumption, suggesting a focus on cultural and creative leaders like Morning Glory and oral care leader Dengkang [8] Export Chain - The report discusses recent policy changes in Guangdong aimed at supporting cross-border e-commerce, which could enhance profitability for companies in this sector [8] - Companies to watch include Zhejiang Natural and Hars, which are expected to benefit from these developments [8] New Tobacco Products - The report notes trends in electronic cigarette regulation in the U.S., suggesting that compliance and harm reduction will be key focuses [8] - It recommends companies like Smoore International, which have strong partnerships and product advantages in the new tobacco sector [8] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown strong performance, with companies like Hailan Home and Anta benefiting from supportive policies [8] - The report highlights the growth of the outdoor economy, recommending companies like Zhejiang Natural and Mugaodi [8]

行 业 研 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 03 月 15 日 究 特斯拉 Optimus 明年有望前往火星，开普勒机器人进厂 "搬砖" 投资要点： 星舰明年年底前携带特斯拉人形机器人 Optimus 前往火星 行 业 定 期 报 告 近日 Teslaconomics 发文称"祝@SpaceX 成立 23 周年快乐，该公 司成立于 2002 年 3 月 14 日，至今仍在突破可能的极限，祝愿下一章 书写让生命多行星化的篇章。"而马斯克回应该发言时说到，星舰将 于明年年底启程前往火星，搭载 Optimus。如果那些着陆任务进展顺利， 人类登陆可能最早在 2029 年开始，尽管 2031 年更有可能。 开普勒 K2 机器人进厂"搬砖" 3 月 15 日，上海开普勒机器人发布旗下人形机器人先行者 K2 上 岗的视频。在视频中，K2 能够在工厂流水线进行搬箱、运输、操作仪 器等动作，双臂协同搬运能力为 25-30 千克。据了解，K2 此前已投入 到智能制造、仓储物流、特种作业、科研教育等头部客户实际场景开 展测试，进行物料搬运、样品处理、巡逻巡检、冲压收料、质量检测 等场景测试。 人形机器人造福全人类，未来有望像汽 ...

行 业 研 究 银行 2025 年 03 月 15 日 2 月社融同比多增，信贷投放动能边际走弱 投资要点： 财政发力支撑社融增速，信贷增量低于预期 2 月社融继续同比多增，但信贷增量低于市场预期。当月新增社融 2.2 万亿元，同比多增 7416 亿元。2 月末存量社融同比增长 8.2%，同比增 速较上月提升 0.2pct。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 从社融增量结构来看，社融同比多增主要来自直接融资的贡献，信贷 对社融增量的贡献减弱。2 月社融口径人民币贷款新增 6528 亿元，同 比少增 3245 亿元。剔除春节错位因素，1-2 月合计新增社融口径人民 币贷款 6.14 万亿元，和上年同期基本持平。2 月直接融资新增 1.87 万 亿元，其中政府债仍然保持较快发行节奏，新增 1.69 万亿元，同比多 增 1.1 万亿元。 化债置换和靠前投放影响下，信贷增长动能边际走弱 2 月企业端信贷增量回落，企业贷款新增 1.04 万亿元，同比少增 5300 亿元。其中，票据融资新增 1693 亿元，同比多增 4460 亿元，票据冲 量对当月信贷形成一定支撑。 对公一般贷款需求下滑。2 月企业中长期贷款新增 5400 亿元 ...

行 华福证券 有色金属 2025 年 03 月 15 日 业 研 究 有色金属 小金属行情热度不减，铜周内开启去库 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美国通胀超预期降温，黄金价格受振上涨。美国关税政策的 摇摆叠加美国2月份消费价格增长放缓，市场对美联储降息预期有所升温， 提振金银价格走势。短期来看，全球贸易战扩大的担忧加剧，市场对未来 经济滞涨担忧仍在，预计贵金属价格震荡为主；中长期角度来看，全球主 要经济体货币政策方向明确，东欧及朝鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属 避险属性，中国央行1月增持黄金，贵金属中长期配置价值不改。个股：黄 金建议关注中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株 冶集团和玉龙股份，其他关注银泰黄金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议 关注兴业银锡、银泰黄金、盛达资源。 工业金属：美国2月CPI低于预期，铜周内开始去库。铜，供给端，本 周进口铜矿TC均价继续下跌，当前为-16美元/吨。需求端，本周铜价上涨 后，下游需求买兴增加，但买货节奏仍偏谨慎，仍是逢低采购。全球铜库 存80.81万吨，环比-1.75万吨，同比+17.62万吨。我们认为，短期中美制 造业PMI共振处于荣枯 ...

行 业 华福证券 轨交设备Ⅱ 2025 年 03 月 15 日 研 究 轨交设备Ⅱ 今年前两个月铁路客流创历史新高 货物运输畅通有序 投资要点： 2025 年 1—2 月份，全国铁路旅客发送量创历史同期新高，货物运输 畅通有序 2025 年 1—2 月份，全国铁路旅客发送量创历史同期新高，货物运 输畅通有序，为经济平稳运行提供了有力支撑。 行 业 定 期 报 告 ——客运方面。春运期间，学生流、务工流、探亲流、旅游流叠 加交织，铁路客流保持高位。2 月，全国铁路发送旅客 3.69 亿人次。 今年前两个月，全国铁路发送旅客 7.38 亿人次，同比增长 6.4%，其中 动车组发送旅客 5.44 亿人次，占全国铁路旅客发送量的 73.8%，同比 增长 5.9%。全国铁路旅客周转量完成 2897.52 亿人公里，同比增长 2.9%，其中动车组旅客周转量 1923.47 亿人公里，同比增长 4.5%。 ——货运方面。2 月，全国铁路货运发送量 3.85 亿吨。前两个月， 全国铁路货运发送量 8.08 亿吨，同比增长 0.3%。从分品类运输情况看， 今年前两个月，集装箱、金属矿石、矿建材料分别发送 1.46 亿吨、0.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant investment activities in Xinjiang by central enterprises, with over 130 billion yuan expected to be invested in 54 projects across various sectors including energy and new energy storage [4][16]. - The first cross-regional green electricity transaction in China has been successfully completed, marking a milestone in the construction of a unified national electricity market [5][21]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued guidelines to promote voluntary disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions by enterprises, aiming to enhance the green transition and international cooperation [25][26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From March 10 to March 14, the environmental, gas, water, and electricity sectors saw increases of 2.63%, 2.22%, 2.17%, and 1.80% respectively, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.59% [3][10]. Industry Perspectives - **Investment in Xinjiang**: Central enterprises are heavily investing in Xinjiang, with projects covering energy, new energy storage, and equipment manufacturing, driven by the region's resource advantages and government support [4][16][17]. - **Green Electricity Trading**: The successful completion of the first cross-regional green electricity transaction involved 52.7 million kilowatt-hours, with wind power accounting for 78% and solar power for 22% of the total [5][21][22]. - **Voluntary Emission Disclosure**: The new guidelines aim to establish a comprehensive framework for voluntary greenhouse gas disclosure by 2027, promoting proactive climate responsibility among enterprises [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various sectors: for thermal power, it recommends Jiangsu Guoxin and cautiously suggests Sheneng Shares and Zhejiang Energy; for nuclear power, it recommends China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power; for hydropower, it recommends Yangtze Power and cautiously suggests Huaneng Hydropower [6].

公 华福证券 运动服装 2025 年 03 月 14 日 司 研 究 公 司 财 报 点 361 度（01361.HK） 24 年业绩点评：全年派息比例提高，超品新店型 放量可期 事件：公司于 3.12 发布 24 年业绩，全年实现收入 100.7 亿元，同比+19.6%， 实现权益持有人应占溢利 11.5 亿元，同比+19.5%，业绩符合预期。公司派 发末期股息 10 港仙/股，全年派息比例为 45%，同比提升 4.8Pct。 经营分析： 技术赋能专业运动品类，童装延续亮眼表现 评 成人装中鞋/服于 2024 年分别实现营收 42.9/30.9 亿元，同比 +22%/15%，主要得益于量增拉动。公司持续夯实专业运动领域实力， 跑步品类加强对材料创新探索，推出飚速 2 等专业竞速碳板跑鞋强化 专业实力，并赞助多项马拉松赛事；篮球品类布局约基奇等核心球星 资源，期间 JOKER 1 全球首发带动品牌加速国际化进程。 童装 2024 年营收同增 19.5%至 23.4 亿元，其中鞋/服分别同比 +18%/23%，随着童装业务推出结合专业功能、健康科技以及儿童时尚 元素的产品满足青少年多元化需求，鞋服产品均呈现高景 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the restructuring of the global landscape in the AI era is expected to propel China into the ranks of high-income countries, driving long-term expansion in high-quality consumption and service industries [2][3] - China's globally competitive output system is anticipated to lead the current technological revolution and foster domestic consumption prosperity over the long term [3][4] - The structural reversal of high inflation in the US service sector and low inflation in goods, combined with economic recovery in Europe and China, is likely to usher in a prolonged upward cycle for global manufacturing [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates a high market sentiment of "East Rising, West Falling," emphasizing the need to focus on the realization of fundamentals [4][43] - Short-term growth industries continue to show high-low cuts, with military industry being a focus, while mid-term preferences lean towards cyclical dividend assets, particularly in electrolytic aluminum, high-quality consumption, and service consumption [4][43] - Long-term prospects are favorable for the AI application industry chain and related Chinese advantages, including scarce manufacturing capabilities, with a positive outlook on Hong Kong stocks, central state-owned enterprises, leading advanced semiconductor firms, traditional manufacturing leaders, the Belt and Road Initiative, and military industry [4][43] Group 3 - The report notes that the US inflation structure may benefit the recovery of global manufacturing, with February's US CPI inflation unexpectedly falling to 2.8% year-on-year, compared to an expected 2.9% [9] - The report also mentions that the Hong Kong stock market saw a decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 2.59% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling by 0.4% [14] - In the A-share market, the report indicates a divergence in performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% while the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 1.76% [20]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is experiencing an upward trend, with the overall A-share market rising by 1.49%. The leading sectors include consumption and financial real estate, while technology is experiencing a downturn [2][11]. - The report highlights that the stock-bond yield spread has decreased to 1.3%, which is below the +1 standard deviation, indicating a decline in valuation differentiation [3][19]. - The report notes that the market sentiment has adjusted, with a decrease in industry rotation intensity, and the five-dimensional market sentiment index has dropped by 5.8% to 47.9 [3][21]. Group 2 - The report discusses the introduction of a childcare subsidy in Hohhot, which is expected to boost birth rates and consumer spending in the maternal and infant product sectors [4][40]. - Manus has announced a strategic partnership with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen team, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of AI Agent technologies [4][41]. - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC conference is anticipated to showcase new products and technologies, which may positively impact NVIDIA's supply chain [4][42]. Group 3 - The report suggests a focus on cyclical sectors, emerging consumption, and low-positioned technology as the market enters a phase of style rebalancing [5][45]. - It emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand, particularly in new retail, e-commerce, and IP industries, to drive incremental consumer demand [5][45]. - The report highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions, debt reduction, and sustained demand growth as key areas of focus for medium to long-term investment strategies [5][46].

T Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 3 月 16 日 美 CPI 数据出炉，降息预期交易较弱 ——海外宏观周报 ➢ 利率：美国CPI走弱但对债市刺激有限。 【美债】本周（20250308-20250314）周三，美国CPI数据公布，2 月CPI同比增长2.8%，预估为2.9%，前值为3%；核心 CPI当月上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 3.1%，低于预期的月度涨幅 0.3% 和年度涨幅 3.2%。但本次温和通胀数据对债市刺激作用小于预期，当日，10年 期国债利率在短暂下行再次回到消息前水平，股市走势亦大致相似， 短暂反弹后午后重新走低。这意味着投资者对贸易战的担忧要更有持 续性，高频数据受其滞后性对交易的推动作用进一步弱化，后续应更 侧重于对关税边际变动的交易。【英国10年期国债】利率上升 14.65bp，欧洲主要经济体仍延续上周抛售格局，德法债券长升短 降，降息预期持续，曲线继续走陡。 ➢ 权益： 主要经济体周五均有所反弹，或受左侧布局美股资金扰动。 关税反复下【美股】几乎全周下跌，11日在特朗普在社交媒体上称， 将对加拿大进口的钢铝产品加征25%关税，令 ...