Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 5 月 8 日 如何看待美国财政预算上两院分歧？ ——海外宏观利率双周报 ➢ 如何看待美国财政预算上两院分歧？ ➢ 双周海外宏观点评 ➢ 利率： 美国利率如期上行，"硬指标"不提供降息支撑 诚信专业 发现价值 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 Table_First e p 团队成员 相关报告 1.《【华福固收】25 年一季报投资线索梳 理》(2025-05-03) 2.《【华福固收】5 月信用债投资策略思 考》(2025-05-05) 观 利 率 双 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 _ e l y T t r o p e R b a T | t s r i F _ e l b a T 固 收 研 究 海 外 宏 Table_First|Table_Author Table_First|Table_Contacter lhr30501@hfzq Table_First|Table_RelateReport 华福证券 ➢ 美国 2025 财年（2024 年 10 月 1 日至 2025 年 9 月 30 日）财政预 算仍未 ...

华福证券 2025 年 05 月 08 日 策 略 研 究 医疗与消费周报——信玖凝获批：我国基因治疗 药物行业发展推进中 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周（4.28-4.30）关注的 6 个子行业三分之二录得正 收益，表现良好。 策 略 定 期 报 告 2、2025 年 4 月 11 日，中国首个血友病 B 基因治疗药物信玖凝（波 哌达可基注射液）获批上市，从研发到上市仅用不到七年。基因疗法 是通过导入外源基因置换或纠正致病基因，实现"一次治疗，长期有 效"。医麦克《基因治疗药物行业发展白皮书》显示，2025 年中国基 因疗法市场规模预计达 25.9 亿美元，2025-2027 年有望达 500 亿元。 中国罕见病约 2000 种，基因疗法潜力巨大。中国丰富的基因组学数据 为研究提供支持，但基因疗法仍面临技术安全性、伦理、法规及成本 等挑战，新的基因编辑工具和递送系统为其发展提供动力。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 风险提示 技术研发不及预期；宏观需求变化；地缘政治影响 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that in April 2025, active quantitative funds tracking the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 800 indices achieved average excess returns of 0.2%, 1.3%, and -0.1% respectively [2][25][34] - Among industry-themed funds, those tracking the CSI Medical, CSI High-end Equipment, and CSI Major Consumer indices ranked as the top three in excess returns for April [41] - Smart beta funds tracking the CSI Technology index had the highest excess returns for the month [42] Group 2 - The report highlights that the absolute return of hedge quantitative funds averaged 0.03% in April 2025, with net asset value volatility higher than the year-to-date average [4][17] - The performance of index-enhanced quantitative funds showed that those tracking the CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices had average excess returns of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively in April [3][51] - The report notes that the average tracking error for funds tracking the CSI 500 index was 4.3%, which is lower than the year-to-date level [51] Group 3 - The report categorizes quantitative funds into three types: active quantitative funds, index-enhanced quantitative funds, and hedge quantitative funds, each with distinct characteristics and advantages [9] - The report states that as of April 30, 2025, there were 199 active quantitative funds tracking 16 indices, with 71, 53, and 36 funds tracking the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 800 indices respectively [20][21] - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various funds, including absolute and excess returns, volatility, and maximum drawdown for the month of April [36][59]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][21]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive performance in its digital transformation and is awaiting the release of efficiencies from its main business adjustments [4]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 770 million yuan, down 40.8% year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The leasing and management business generated a revenue of 5.54 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, while the franchise management business earned 430 million yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year, primarily due to rental and management fee reductions to support merchants [5]. - The product sales business achieved a revenue of 6.3 billion yuan, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year, with the company's smart home segment generating over 6.33 billion yuan in sales, a growth of 43.4% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 27.35%, a decrease of 6.8 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by rental reductions [6]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 840 million yuan, 930 million yuan, and 1.03 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 9.3%, 10.1%, and 11.1% [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively innovating its market strategies, including a new store cooperation model and a "one store, two systems" recruitment strategy, which has improved recruitment rates by 5.3% [5]. - The company has expanded its digital marketing services and international presence, opening two stores in Cambodia and Macau, achieving a recruitment rate of over 97% [6]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X for 2025 [7]. - The company maintains a debt-to-asset ratio of 57.07% and a net asset value per share of 3.28 yuan [7].

Group 1 - The report outlines a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting transformation, introduced during a press conference by key financial leaders [1][2][7] - The monetary policy includes three categories and ten specific measures, focusing on quantity, price, and structure to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [10][11][12] - A targeted support for the real estate sector is highlighted, with a reduction in housing provident fund loan rates expected to stimulate demand and stabilize the market [16][17] Group 2 - The capital market is set to receive increased funding through systematic reforms, including the expansion of insurance capital investments and adjustments to regulatory frameworks to encourage long-term investments [17][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable capital market structure, aiming to attract long-term capital and enhance market resilience through various policy measures [20][21] - Historical data indicates that previous reductions in reserve requirements have led to positive market reactions, suggesting that the current policy measures may similarly boost market sentiment [21][24] Group 3 - Future investment opportunities are identified in high-growth sectors such as domestic computing power, industrial machinery, and defense industries, driven by policy support and global technological trends [28] - The report suggests that sectors sensitive to interest rate declines, such as real estate development and home improvement, may benefit from the current economic policies [28] - Consumer sectors, particularly those related to discretionary spending and healthcare, are expected to thrive due to lower mortgage rates and supportive consumption policies [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating for this specific topic is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 7, 2025, the central bank introduced a package of 10 policies covering quantitative, price - based, and structural aspects, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [2][6] - Since the Trump tariff policy shock in April 2025, China's financial market has remained stable, and the package of monetary policies, though largely within market expectations, is more forceful than expected [2][11] - For the bond market, the current situation shows pressure on banks' liability - side and a flattened yield curve. The current policy is expected to ease banks' medium - and long - term liquidity pressure, lower the funds rate to make the yield curve steeper, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield may fall to the 1.5% - 1.6% range [2][12][13] - Future attention should be paid to the impact of bond supply and changes in the economic fundamentals and policies, especially the Sino - US trade negotiations from May 9 - 12 [2][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 One - Package Monetary Policy Details Quantitative Policies - Lower the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market - Temporarily reduce the deposit reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% [6] Price - Based Policies - Cut the policy rate by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate dropping from 1.5% to 1.4%, and the LPR expected to decline by about 0.1 percentage points accordingly - Lower the structural monetary policy tool rate by 0.25 percentage points (PSL from 2.25% to 2%, others from 1.75% to 1.5%) - Reduce the personal housing provident fund loan rate by 0.25 percentage points [6] Structural Policies - Increase the re - loan quota for technological innovation and transformation by 300 billion yuan, from 500 billion to 800 billion yuan - Establish a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care - Add 300 billion yuan to the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses - Optimize two monetary policy tools for the capital market, combining the 50 - billion - yuan swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies and the 30 - billion - yuan re - loan for stock repurchase and increase, with a total quota of 80 billion yuan - Create a risk - sharing tool for technological innovation bonds [7] 3.2 Comparison with the 2024 Policy - Similarity: Both times the central bank announced reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, responding to the call for a moderately loose monetary policy - Differences: In 2025, the policy rate cut was 10BP with the same LPR cut, and the structural monetary policy tool rate was cut by 25BP. The incremental scale of structural monetary policy tools was 1.1 trillion yuan, larger than the 800 billion yuan in 2024 [2][8][12] 3.3 Impact on the Bond Market - Current Situation: After the central bank loosened its focus on funds prices, the funds rate has been approaching the policy rate but not yet stabilizing at 1.6%. The bank's net lending scale has been fluctuating around 3 trillion yuan, and the first - level issuance rate of certificates of deposit has faced a downward bottleneck. The yield curve has flattened further, with the 10Y - 2Y Treasury bond spread narrowing from 23BP at the beginning of April to 17BP at the end of April [2][12] - Policy Impact: The reserve requirement ratio cut can relieve banks' medium - and long - term liquidity pressure. A significant decline in the funds rate will steepen the yield curve, and the short - end rate has greater certainty. The long - end rate may break through the 1.6% level and fall to the 1.5% - 1.6% range [2][13] 3.4 Future Focus - Bond Supply: Pay attention to the impact of the accelerated issuance of Treasury bonds and the large supply of ultra - long - term bonds - Economic Fundamentals and Policies: The PMI in April decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 49, and the impact of trade frictions on exports is expected to be more obvious in May. Focus on the Sino - US trade negotiations from May 9 - 12 [2][13]

Group 1: Fixed Income Plus Funds Tracking - Convertible bond products lead the Fixed Income Plus funds, showing more stable net value performance compared to stock and mixed funds, with a 0.32% increase in April, outperforming mixed and stock products [1][2][14] - The overall stock position of Fixed Income Plus funds has slightly increased, while exposure to market capitalization styles has decreased [3][19] - The selected Fixed Income Plus fund combination outperformed the secondary bond index by 0.19% in April, indicating a more stable performance [5][28] Group 2: Pure Bond Funds Tracking - The mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index showed a significant divergence in performance, with a 0.57% increase in April and a 0.28% increase year-to-date, while the short-term pure bond fund index rose by 0.29% in April and 0.42% year-to-date [38][39] - In terms of risk exposure, pure bond funds have shifted from a defensive strategy to a more aggressive stance, with increased exposure to credit and default risks [6][45] - The selected pure bond fund combination has outperformed the mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index, with a year-to-date excess return of 0.08% [7][49]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][68] Core Viewpoints - In April, the real estate sales heat has declined, but there are expectations for stronger policies in the future. The central bank's vice governor disclosed that personal housing loans increased by 220 billion yuan in Q1, which is over 200 billion yuan more than the previous year. Various cities have introduced new housing policies to support home purchases, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the real estate market [3][13]. - Short-term factors include the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate sector during the April Politburo meeting, the urgency to expand domestic demand and promote investment amid escalating global trade tensions, and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is beneficial for the building materials sector [3][13]. - Long-term factors suggest that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the US may provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China. The Politburo meeting in September 2024 explicitly stated the need to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for policies such as lowering existing mortgage rates and transaction taxes to support demand [3][13]. Summary by Sections Recent High-frequency Data - As of April 30, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 395.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8% from last week, but a year-on-year increase of 13.0%. The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1275.7 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from last week and down 25.2% year-on-year [4][22]. Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.49%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index remained unchanged. The building materials index dropped by 2.14%. Among sub-sectors, refractory materials increased by 1.61%, while cement manufacturing decreased by 2.25% [5][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. High-quality blue-chip stocks benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [6]. 2. Undervalued stocks benefiting from the alleviation of B-end credit risks, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [6]. 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [6].

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank has decided to implement a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, promoting stable growth in loans for households and enterprises[2] - A simultaneous reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the interest rates of structural monetary tools such as re-loans for agriculture and small enterprises will help lower the cost of liabilities for commercial banks, stabilizing net interest margins and enhancing the efficiency of interest rate transmission[2] - The expectation for continued active use of RRR cuts in the second half of the year remains, with an annual forecast of 100-150 basis points (BP) in total[2] Real Estate and Consumption - Policy interest rates have been reduced by 10 basis points (BP) and public housing loan rates by 25 BP to stabilize the real estate market, which is crucial for supporting domestic demand[3] - The creation of 500 billion yuan in service consumption and pension re-loans aims to stimulate demand for durable goods and services, particularly in the post-real estate cycle[3] - The recent downward trend in the real estate market, especially in second and third-tier cities, indicates that policy support is still needed to maintain stability[3] Economic Strategy and Trade Relations - The "stable exchange rate - stable real estate - promote domestic demand" cycle is expected to strengthen, providing a basis for China to engage in equal trade negotiations with the U.S.[3] - The Ministry of Commerce has signaled a willingness to engage in talks with the U.S., emphasizing mutual respect and benefit as prerequisites for dialogue[3] - The combination of stable real estate policies and measures to boost consumption and investment is enhancing market confidence in China's ability to manage external shocks[3] Capital Market Support - The central bank is increasing support for technological innovation and transformation with an additional 300 billion yuan in re-loans, alongside the creation of risk-sharing tools for tech innovation bonds[4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to introduce further reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to enhance market inclusivity and adaptability[4] - A combined monetary policy tool worth 800 billion yuan is aimed at stabilizing capital market expectations and mitigating potential market volatility risks[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.51 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.3%, and a net profit of 300 million yuan, which is a 13.4% increase year-on-year [2]. - The increase in various expense ratios in Q1 2025, including sales expense ratio at 33.6% (up 1.5 percentage points), management expense ratio at 4.9% (up 1.4 percentage points), and R&D expense ratio at 12.7% (up 2.2 percentage points), is attributed to stock incentive costs and increased R&D investments [3]. - The company continues to increase its R&D investment, with a total of 721 million yuan in 2024, a 17.48% increase year-on-year, and a workforce of 911 R&D personnel, up 6.7% year-on-year. The company has 14 innovative drug projects in progress, with significant advancements expected in 2024 [4]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.59 billion yuan, 7.69 billion yuan, and 8.93 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 16%, 17%, and 16% [5]. - The net profit forecast for the same years is 1.31 billion yuan, 1.52 billion yuan, and 1.78 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15%, 16%, and 17% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.29 yuan, 1.50 yuan, and 1.75 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The company is considered to be relatively undervalued, and the report maintains a "Buy" rating based on its growth potential and diverse product pipeline [5].