Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The capital market has no basis for tightening as the real - estate market and credit demand face downward pressure, and external exchange - rate pressure has significantly eased. However, the central bank's attitude towards the capital market is limitedly loose, so the probability of a significant decline in capital interest rates is low. DR007 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.5 - 1.6%. The CD maturity peak is not over, and CD interest rates may remain in a sideways oscillation state, with limited downward momentum in the bond market. Further long - position opportunities may require greater liquidity support from the central bank, a significant decline in CD interest rates, and an increase in interest - rate cut expectations [5][19][23] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Can the funds become even looser? - From the fundamental perspective, the real - estate market and credit demand have downward pressure. As of June 14, the year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in June was 8.0%, and the year - on - year growth of first - tier cities' transaction area also decreased. As of June 8, the national urban second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.48% month - on - month. In May, the year - on - year growth of RMB loan balances was 7.1%, and the credit growth rate was still in a downward range. The growth of social financing was mainly supported by government bond issuance and direct financing, with weak financing demand from the real economy [7][12] - External exchange - rate pressure has significantly eased. After the Sino - US Geneva talks on May 12, bilateral tariff levels were significantly reduced, and the RMB showed an appreciation trend, so the central bank does not need to tighten funds to stabilize the exchange rate [15] - The central bank's attitude towards the capital market is limitedly loose. The central bank conducted two outright reverse repurchases in June, with a total investment of 1.4 trillion yuan, but the net investment was only 200 billion yuan. Considering the upcoming tax period and cross - quarter pressure, the upward range of capital interest rates is expected to be limited, and DR007 may fluctuate in the 1.5 - 1.6% range [17][18] 2. What is the impact on the bond market? - Since late May, although capital interest rates have significantly declined, CD interest rates have been in a sideways oscillation state, restricting the downward space of bond interest rates. In the next two weeks, CD repayment pressure is high, but the net lending scale of large banks has been increasing, so CD interest rates are expected to remain in an oscillating state, and the downward momentum of the bond market is limited [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The Israel-Iran conflict is expected to impact the Chinese chemical industry through increased demand for military materials and agricultural products, benefiting companies involved in metal chromium, nitrocellulose, carbon fiber, and rubber materials [4][5] - Supply-side constraints are anticipated due to potential disruptions in oil and gas supplies from Iran, affecting various chemical products [4] - The report highlights the rising prices of chromium salts and the potential for increased profitability in the sector, particularly for companies like Zhenhua Co. [5][6] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 8.8% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has seen a 9.6% increase [3] Key Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment opportunities: 1. Low-cost expansion in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [9] 2. Improved industry sentiment for chromium salts and phosphate rock [9] 3. New materials with high growth potential, particularly in electronic chemicals and aerospace materials [10] 4. High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in the chemical sector [10] Company Focus - Zhenhua Co. is highlighted for its significant production capacity in chromium salts and its ability to adapt to market demands, with a projected production of 260,000 tons of chromium salt in 2024 [6][31] - Baitian Co. is noted for its phosphate rock production capacity expansion, which is expected to enhance its market position [7][31] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing tight supply-demand situation for phosphate rock, with existing capacities facing delays and increasing demand from lithium iron phosphate battery projects [7] - The report also mentions the impact of recent chemical safety incidents on industry capacity and regulatory pressures, which may accelerate the phase-out of less compliant operations [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2025, which is anticipated to support upward consumer spending [16] - The report highlights the emergence of high-end domestic brands and the potential for increased penetration of advanced driving technologies [16] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Robotaxi initiative by Tesla, which is set to launch on June 22, 2025, as a significant development in the industry [14] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Multiple automotive companies have announced a "60-day payment term" commitment to suppliers, aiming to alleviate financial pressure [12] - The global first L3-level AI vehicle, the Xiaopeng G7, was officially unveiled with a pre-sale price of 235,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [13] - Tesla plans to initiate its Robotaxi pilot service in Austin, Texas, with the first deliveries expected on June 28, 2025 [14] Market Performance - From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the A-share automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 0.8% [17] - The performance of individual segments showed a mixed trend, with passenger vehicles down by 2.0% and commercial vehicles up by 7.2% during the same period [17] Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential to benefit from the current market dynamics: 1. Domestic brands like Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors are expected to thrive in the high-end market segment [16] 2. Companies involved in advanced driving technologies, such as Xiaopeng Motors, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Kobot, are highlighted for their growth potential [16] 3. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in the supply chain, such as Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology [16] 4. In the commercial vehicle sector, it anticipates a recovery in heavy truck demand, recommending companies like Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - Tesla's Robotaxi is approaching commercialization, with plans to expand from an initial fleet of 10 vehicles to 1,000 within months, starting operations in Austin and expanding to cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles [2][3]. - The core advantages of Tesla's Robotaxi include significant data advantages, a strong computational barrier with a fleet of 5 million vehicles equipped with FSD hardware, and a cost advantage where production costs are projected to be only 20%-25% of Waymo's [2]. - The report identifies three key elements for the large-scale commercialization of Robotaxi: improved algorithm capabilities, reduced hardware costs, and supportive policies [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Elon Musk announced the tentative public trial date for Tesla's Robotaxi on June 22, 2025, marking a significant milestone in its operational timeline [1]. Market Potential - The global market for Robotaxi is projected to reach RMB 834.9 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 239% from 2024 to 2030, and China expected to dominate this market [8]. Operational Performance - Companies like Pony.ai, WeRide, and others have deployed over 1,000 Robotaxis, with significant growth in passenger orders and operational scale [9]. - For instance, Pony.ai reported an 800% increase in passenger order revenue in Q1 2025, with plans to reach 1,000 vehicles by year-end [9]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights key players in the Robotaxi space, including Wanma Technology, Horizon Robotics, and others, indicating a competitive environment with various companies actively deploying and scaling their Robotaxi fleets [9].

Liquidity - The central bank implemented a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 0.5 percentage points and a loan prime rate (LPR) reduction of 10 basis points, leading to a net liquidity injection of CNY 599.8 billion in May[44] - The liquidity environment has further eased, with the weighted average interest rate for net financing from major banks and policy banks declining in May[44] Equity Market - Broad-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of CNY 34.8 billion, while the Sci-Tech ETF saw a net inflow of CNY 50 billion, indicating a divergence in investor sentiment[9][10] - The technology sector ETF recorded its largest monthly inflow of CNY 23.5 billion, while consumer and pharmaceutical ETFs faced significant outflows of CNY 22.5 billion and CNY 27 billion, respectively[16] Bond Market - Major banks and rural commercial banks began net buying old bonds in May, with net selling of interest rate bonds decreasing to CNY 1.909 billion from CNY 3.555 billion in April[29] - Insurance companies net purchased CNY 1.908 billion in interest rate bonds, primarily focusing on 15-20 year and 20-30 year maturities[32] Commodity Market - Gold ETFs shifted from net inflow to net outflow, with a net outflow of CNY 4.4 billion in May, reflecting changing investor sentiment towards precious metals[39] - Other commodity ETFs, including non-ferrous and energy chemical ETFs, continued to experience outflows, totaling CNY 1.13 billion and CNY 0.17 billion, respectively[40] Risk Factors - Increased geopolitical risks, potential domestic macroeconomic policy shortcomings, and the possibility of an overseas economic recession pose significant risks to market stability[47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of thermal coal is tightening in major production areas, with expectations for demand to rebound during the peak season [1][4] - The report highlights a stable port coal price of 609 RMB/ton as of June 13, 2025, with a decrease in production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region by 2.48 percentage points due to frequent safety and environmental inspections [4][13] - The report emphasizes the resilience of high-calorific imported coal prices, while low-calorific coal has seen a slight recovery in cost-effectiveness [4][13] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Port inventory continues to decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 64.10 thousand tons in northern ports [30] - Daily coal consumption in coastal and inland power plants shows mixed trends, with coastal consumption increasing by 3.7 thousand tons and inland decreasing by 7.6 thousand tons [22][30] - The report anticipates a reduction in hydropower generation due to increased outflow from the Three Gorges Dam, which may lead to a recovery in thermal power demand [13][30] Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has contracted, with a week-on-week decrease in production capacity utilization by 0.86 percentage points [5][40] - Despite a slight decrease in supply, demand remains weak, leading to an increase in inventory levels at coking coal production enterprises by 16.81 thousand tons [6][40] - The report indicates that coking coal prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [6][41] Coking Coke - Coking coke prices have undergone three rounds of reductions, impacting profit margins for coking enterprises [51] - The report notes a decrease in production rates at coking plants, with a utilization rate of 75.77% [51][56] - Coking coke inventory continues to rise, although the rate of increase has slowed [51][66] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with a focus on their strong cash flow and high asset quality [7][8] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is set to absorb and merge with Zhongke Shuguang, aiming to create a world-class intelligent computing center [5][6] - The merger is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the chip sector and integrate resources from Zhongke Shuguang in machine and data center infrastructure [5][6] - The transaction will simplify governance structures and optimize resource allocation, leading to improved operational efficiency and shareholder returns [7] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance over the last year shows a 91.0% increase compared to the benchmark index, CSI 300, which only increased by 9.6% [3] - As of June 13, 2025, the current stock price is 137.06 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 318.57 billion yuan [3] Merger Details - The merger involves a share exchange where the company will issue A-shares to Zhongke Shuguang's shareholders at a premium of 10% [5] - The exchange ratio is set at 1:0.5525, with the company's share price for the exchange at 143.36 yuan per share [5][8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 147.93 billion yuan, 220.54 billion yuan, and 306.90 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 31.70 billion yuan, 48.34 billion yuan, and 73.23 billion yuan [9][10] - The expected EPS for the same period is projected to be 1.36 yuan, 2.08 yuan, and 3.15 yuan [9][10] Strategic Advantages - The merger is anticipated to create a closed-loop layout from high-end chip design to complete computing systems, enhancing the company's overall strength in the intelligent computing ecosystem [6][7] - The integration of Zhongke Shuguang's AI capabilities and applications is expected to drive long-term growth and operational synergies [6][7]

2025 年 06 月 15 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 财政发力支撑总量，M1 增速回升 资产配置报告 最近一年走势 相关报告 《公募 REITs 周报：二级市场表现领先，REITs 总 市值首破两千亿*林加力》——2025-06-09 《2025 年 6 月大类资产配置报告：审慎情绪延续， 聚焦结构性机会*林加力》——2025-06-05 《公募 REITs 周报：市场活跃度略降，交通基础设 施连续上涨*林加力》——2025-06-04 《公募 REITs 周报：市场持续活跃，保障房与交通 领涨*林加力》——2025-05-27 金如何配置行业*林加力》——2025-05-19 投资要点: 国海证券股份有限公司 【银行&资产配置小组介绍】 林加力，国海证券研究所副所长、首席资产配置官、金融首席分析师。毕业于浙江大学、复旦大学，曾就职于 海通证券、民生证券、浦发银行。2019-2023 年连续上榜新财富最 ...

2025 年 06 月 15 日 行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 林晓莹 S0350123070003 linxy02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] "狮子的力量"撼动油市，地缘溢价能撑多久？ ——石油石化事件点评 最近一年走势 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 2025 年 6 月中旬，以色列空袭伊朗前，美伊核谈已传出不容乐观的 消息，原油 VIX 直线飙升。据 Macrobond 数据，美伊达成协议的概 率从约 50%骤降至 25%左右。 事件发生后，市场担忧冲突影响原油供应，纷纷买入原油期货避险， 推动盘国际油价大幅飙升。据百度股市通，截至美东时间 6 月 12 日 22:50，美油 2507 合约上涨 11.96%，布油 2508 合约涨超 11%。同 时，黄金作为传统避险资产也出现拉升，COMEX 金 2506 合约上涨 1.7%。 伊朗是 OPEC 第三大产油国。截至 2021 年，伊朗石油探明储量达 2086 亿桶，约占全球总储量的 9%（2020 年数据）。20 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector's fundamentals and performance compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [11]. Core Insights - Quantum Song has acquired a 61% stake in Shenzhen Yiqi Culture Co., Ltd. (Letsvan) for 235 million RMB, marking its strategic entry into the trendy toy market and broader consumer goods sector [4]. - Letsvan operates multiple well-known IPs and has a growth strategy focused on enhancing retail partnerships, developing self-operated stores, and building comprehensive online sales capabilities [3]. - The financial performance of Quantum Song for FY2025Q1 shows a revenue of 570 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, while the net profit increased by 181.2% to 41 million RMB [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Quantum Song is actively exploring business transformation, with online learning service revenues under pressure due to declines in various course offerings [4]. - Letsvan's IP sales have shown strong growth, with successful product launches and significant brand engagement through social media [5]. Market Expansion - The company has initiated localized operations in Southeast Asia and North America, with successful overseas pop-up events validating its international brand acceptance [5]. - Letsvan is establishing a standardized and scalable offline sales network across major cities in China, enhancing its market presence [5].