Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to enter a phase of sales prosperity, event catalysis, and industry trend resonance, with continued optimism for investment opportunities in the automotive sector [3][4][16] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - BYD held a strategic conference on intelligent driving, launching the "Heavenly Eye" advanced driving system, which aims to democratize high-level autonomous driving technology across various models [2][13] - BAIC Blue Valley plans to rebrand as BAIC Extreme Fox and enhance collaboration with Huawei, focusing on its core business in new energy vehicles [3][14] Market Performance - From February 10 to 14, 2025, the A-share automotive sector underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index rising by 1.2% compared to the Shanghai Composite's 1.3% [1][17] - The performance of individual stocks in the Hong Kong market varied, with Li Auto and Xpeng Motors experiencing declines of 1.6% and 6.2%, respectively [1][17] Sales and Policy Impact - The 2024 vehicle trade-in policy has positively influenced passenger car sales, with expectations for continued support in 2025 [4][16] - The report anticipates that the automotive sector will see improved monthly sales year-on-year from February to April 2025, driven by new vehicle launches and technological advancements [4][16] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities, including: 1. Companies benefiting from the high-end market segment, such as Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [16] 2. Companies involved in the affordable high-level autonomous driving sector, including Xpeng Motors and Huayang Group [16] 3. Companies positioned for breakthroughs in robotics production, such as Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [16] 4. Quality auto parts manufacturers like Fuyao Glass and Xingyu Co., which are expected to perform well despite a complex export environment [16] 5. Commercial vehicle leaders like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Yutong Bus, which are anticipated to benefit from recovering demand [16]

相关报告 2025 年 02 月 17 日 北交所行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 本周北证 50 指数小幅上涨、流动性环比显著提 升 ——北交所行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/2/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 | 50 | 23.06% | -11.17% | 49.19% | | 沪深 | 300 | 5.82% | -4.18% | 17.06% | 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 涨幅明显，丹娜 生物上会通过、宏海科技申购（推荐）*中小盘*罗 琨》——2025-01-20 《北交所行业周报：本周北交所流动性环比改善， 宏海科技完成注册、开发科技提交注册（推荐）* 中小盘*罗琨》——2025-01-13 | 重点公司 | 股票 | 2025/2/14 | | EPS | | | PE ...

2025 年 02 月 17 日 行业研究 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 [Table_Title] 美国关税政策再调整，避险情绪为主流 联系人 ： 林晓莹 S0350123070003 ——钢铁与大宗商品行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/02/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 钢铁 | | 5.8% | 1.2% | 7.1% | | 沪深 | 300 | 3.5% | -0.5% | 17.3% | 相关报告 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：低库存叠加宏观数据 回暖，黑色普涨（无评级）*钢铁*谢文迪》—— 2025-01-20 《2025 年大宗商品年度策略*钢铁*谢文迪》—— 2025-01-18 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：有色宏微观共振，黑 色基本面遇冷（无评级）*钢铁*谢文迪》—— 2025-01-13 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：商品交易回归基本 面，直面弱现实（无评级）*钢铁*谢文迪》—— 2024-12-30 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：商品弱现实下价格疲 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the emergence of DeepSeek, which has led to a revaluation of Chinese technology assets, drawing parallels between the current AI technology cycle and the mobile internet cycle from 2009 to 2015 [1] - Both cycles were initiated by overseas technological innovations (iPhone and ChatGPT), followed by domestic products taking the lead, resulting in industry waves and significant breakthroughs in cultural media [2][3] - The macroeconomic backdrop for both cycles includes economic transformation and liquidity easing, which supports the valuation uplift of technology-related industries and the expansion of excess returns [2][3] Group 2 - Compared to the previous mobile internet cycle, the overall fundamentals of technology stocks in the current cycle are weaker, facing a more complex external environment, leading to greater differentiation [2][3] - Since the release of ChatGPT in 2023, the TMT sector has seen significant gains, with the overall increase still having considerable room for growth, as valuation repairs are largely complete [3][9] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current TMT sector has potential for further growth, with a projected increase of over 70% if it mirrors the performance of the 2009-2015 technology cycle [49] - The report also notes that the sub-sectors within TMT show optimistic growth potential, with expected increases ranging from 80% to 140% for various segments [50]

DeepSeek 研究框架——计算机人工智能系列深度报告--行业 PPT 报告 2024 年营收同比增速环比大幅提升--杭州银行/城商行Ⅱ(600926/214804) 公司点评 2025 年储能年度策略：全球能源新时代，储能各场景需求加速--行业 PPT 报告 1 月企业信贷开门红带动社融超预期--资产配置报告 电子皮肤：人形机器人实现感知交互的关键--行业专题研究 新能源全面入市行业市场化加速，固态电池进入密集催化期--行业周报 存贷规模同比高增，2024 年营收同比增速较 2024Q3 提升--宁波银行/城商行Ⅱ(002142/214804) 公司点评 单季贷款规模变化由负转正--苏农银行/农商行Ⅱ(603323/214805) 公司点评 2024Q4 单季度业绩加速增长--齐鲁银行/城商行Ⅱ(601665/214804) 公司点评 全球头部大厂推进机器人布局，多厂商开展机器人部件产线建设--行业周报 风险还是机会？--固定收益点评 振华股份铬盐价格上涨，中策橡胶 IPO 过会--行业周报 叉车出海景气+内需企稳，智能物流打开新成长曲线--安徽合力/工程机械(600761/216406) 公司动态研究 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Corporation (3888 HK) [1] Core Views - Kingsoft achieved strong revenue growth in Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 2 915 billion (YoY +41 5%, QoQ +17 8%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 413 million (YoY +1351 1%, QoQ +5 1%) [1][3] - The company's gaming business showed remarkable growth, with revenue reaching RMB 1 708 billion (YoY +77 7%, QoQ +32 8%), driven by the success of "JX3" and "JX3 Boundless" [3] - Office software and services revenue reached RMB 1 207 billion (YoY +9 9%, QoQ +1 6%), supported by AI-powered product innovations and domestic subscription growth [3] Financial Performance - Gross profit reached RMB 2 454 billion (YoY +46 4%, QoQ +20 2%), with a gross margin of 84 2% (YoY +2 8pct, QoQ +1 7pct) [3] - Operating expenses improved significantly, with sales expense ratio at 12 5% (YoY -8 9pct, QoQ -2 8pct), R&D expense ratio at 29 5% (YoY -3 1pct, QoQ -0 4pct), and administrative expense ratio at 5 7% (YoY -3 4pct, QoQ -0 6pct) [3] - The company's market capitalization stood at HKD 39 013 70 million as of November 19, 2024 [3] Office Software Business - Kingsoft continued to optimize WPS AI, launching WPS AI 2 0 with four new assistants to enhance user experience and subscription conversion [3] - The company expanded its SaaS transformation with WPS 365, targeting large-scale private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises [3] - AI innovations included text companion, AI Docs intelligent document library, and the WPS Lingxi AI assistant, further advancing the AI office ecosystem [3] Gaming Business - "JX3 Boundless" exceeded expectations in terms of returning users, while the annual expansion pack for "JX3" introduced new features that enhanced player engagement [3] - The sci-fi mecha game "JXJ" completed its first public test in August, generating significant global interest with nearly 3 million pre-registrations and ranking 17th on Steam's wishlist [3] - The mobile game "JXQZ Zero" has obtained its license and is planned for release next year [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report raises revenue forecasts for FY2024-2026 to RMB 10 3/11 6/12 8 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach RMB 1 45/1 81/2 05 billion [6] - The target price is set at RMB 36 (HKD 39), based on a SOTP valuation method, implying a target market capitalization of RMB 47 5 billion [6] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 25/20/18x for FY2024-2026, with EPS of RMB 1 1/1 4/1 5 [6]

Company Analysis: ANE Logistics (09956) - ANE Logistics achieved a freight volume of 3.734 million tons in Q3 2024, a YoY increase of 18.5%, with revenue reaching RMB 3.04 billion, up 21.2% YoY [4] - Gross profit surged 66.7% YoY to RMB 480 million, with gross margin improving by 4.3 percentage points to 15.6% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew 27.9% YoY to RMB 190 million, with net margin increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 6.2% [4] - The company's network expanded to 32,000 agents and partners, a 14.3% YoY increase, serving over 5.8 million end customers [5] - Service quality improved significantly, with average delivery time reduced to under 64 hours, lost package rate dropping to 0.03 per 100,000, and complaint rate decreasing to 39.2 per 100,000 [6] - Small parcel business (0-70kg) grew 37.3% YoY, outperforming larger freight segments [7] - Unit costs decreased, with transportation cost per kg dropping to RMB 0.297 and distribution center cost per kg falling to RMB 0.140 [11] - Management expense ratio improved to 7.3% in Q3 2024, down from 9.9% in H1 2022 [12] Industry Analysis: Logistics - ANE Logistics' "Five Best" strategy focuses on cost optimization, quality improvement, stable delivery, fast response, and dense network coverage [14] - The company's strategic adjustments and management improvements are expected to drive long-term growth in both volume and profitability [14] - Forecasts predict ANE Logistics' revenue to reach RMB 13.502 billion in 2025 and RMB 15.244 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to grow to RMB 1.151 billion by 2026 [15] Company Analysis: Shengquan Group (605589) - Shengquan Group reported Q3 2024 revenue of RMB 2.526 billion, up 8.58% YoY, with net profit surging 47.77% YoY to RMB 249 million [27] - Phenolic resin production decreased 15.12% QoQ to 121,200 tons, while electronic chemicals production increased 2.87% QoQ to 17,300 tons [28] - The company's 1,000-ton functionalized polystyrene project began production in June 2024, with sufficient potential orders [29] - The Daqing project achieved over 70% capacity utilization by September 2024, with full capacity expected by year-end [32] Industry Analysis: Semiconductor and AI Hardware - Global semiconductor sales have bottomed out, with IC design companies like MediaTek reporting 19.4% YoY revenue growth in October 2024 [20] - TSMC's October 2024 revenue surged 29.2% YoY, driven by 3nm process and AI-related demand [20] - AI server demand remains strong, with major Taiwanese server manufacturers reporting significant YoY revenue growth in October 2024 [21] - PCB manufacturers are benefiting from AI server demand, with Xunxing Electronics showing revenue recovery since July 2024 [21] Industry Analysis: Bond Market - Market liquidity tightened in the week of November 11-15, 2024, with R007 rising to 1.83% and DR007 increasing to 1.72% [18] - The "asset shortage" index rose, while the overall market leverage ratio decreased to 107.9% [19]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the overseas industry, particularly highlighting the strong demand for AI hardware [1][51] Core Views - The global semiconductor cycle has passed its sales trough, with year-on-year growth turning positive, driven by AI demand and cyclical recovery [5][36] - AI server demand remains a key growth driver for server manufacturers, while AI PC adoption is still in its early stages [6][45] - PCB demand is being boosted by the AI server wave, with AI-related applications expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in 2024 and 2025 [46] - The optical components sector faces a conservative outlook for Q4, with some companies experiencing declining shipment momentum [47] - The passive components sector has entered a traditional off-season, with mixed performance among key players [48] Semiconductor Sector - MediaTek's October revenue reached 51.1 billion TWD, up 14.4% MoM and 19.4% YoY, driven by strong growth in its Dimensity 9400 chip [5][36] - TSMC's October revenue surged 24.8% MoM and 29.2% YoY, reaching a record high, supported by 3nm contributions and AI-driven demand for advanced processes and packaging [5][36] - UMC, Vanguard, and Powerchip saw improved operations in H2 2024, with UMC's October revenue up 12.8% MoM and 11.4% YoY [5][36] - ASE's October revenue increased 1.5% MoM and 0.5% YoY, marking the highest monthly revenue since December 2022 [5][36] PC/Server Sector - Major PC OEMs experienced a decline in notebook shipments in October due to the high base effect from September's quarter-end shipments [6][45] - AI server demand remains robust, with Quanta's October revenue down 12.4% MoM but up 48.7% YoY, and Wistron's revenue down 0.6% MoM but up 22.8% YoY [6][45] - Inventec's October revenue rose 15.0% MoM and 60.1% YoY, while Wiwynn's revenue increased 2.5% MoM and 86.8% YoY [6][45] PCB Sector - PCB manufacturers saw flat revenue in October, with a 1.9% YoY decline, but AI-related products are driving growth for companies like Unimicron [46] - Zhen Ding's October revenue grew 8.4% MoM and 0.4% YoY, reflecting traditional peak season performance [46] - AI server layer count increases are expected to be a major growth driver for PCB manufacturers in 2025 [46] Optical Components Sector - Largan Precision's October revenue increased 0.4% MoM and 3.6% YoY, but the company remains cautious about Q4 demand [47] - Genius Electronic Optical's October revenue fell 23.7% MoM and 21.8% YoY, following a strong Q3 driven by iPhone 16 shipments [47] Passive Components Sector - Passive component companies saw a 3.9% MoM decline in October revenue, but an 11.5% YoY increase, with Yageo's revenue up 0.5% MoM and 15.5% YoY [48] - Walsin Technology's October revenue fell 12.9% MoM but rose 1.7% YoY [48]

Investment Rating - Buy rating (initiated coverage) [2] Core Views - PPO capacity gradually released, Q3 net profit attributable to parent company increased QoQ [2] - Phenolic resin production declined QoQ, but net profit increased QoQ [5] - Rich pipeline of electronic chemicals and new energy materials projects, profitability expected to further improve [6] - Daqing project completed technical transformation, capacity ramp-up contributing incremental growth [10] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: 7.152 billion yuan, +6.87% YoY; net profit attributable to parent company: 581 million yuan, +20.53% YoY [3] - 2024 Q3 revenue: 2.526 billion yuan, +8.58% YoY, +1.42% QoQ; net profit attributable to parent company: 249 million yuan, +47.77% YoY, +28.56% QoQ [4] - 2024 Q3 gross margin: 23.14%, +0.52pct YoY, -0.26pct QoQ; net profit margin: 10.12%, +2.75pct YoY, +2.18pct QoQ [4] - 2024 Q3 phenolic resin production: 121,200 tons, -15.12% QoQ; revenue: 896 million yuan, -13.06% QoQ [6] - 2024 Q3 foundry resin production: 47,000 tons, -1.61% QoQ; revenue: 402 million yuan, -3.84% QoQ [6] - 2024 Q3 electronic chemicals production: 17,300 tons, +2.87% QoQ; revenue: 286 million yuan, -12.11% QoQ [6] Project Updates - 1,000-ton functionalized polyphenylene project started production in June 2024, currently in customer verification stage with abundant intended orders [6] - 300-ton silicon carbon anode porous carbon capacity built by September 2024, 1,000-ton project under construction [6] - Daqing project completed transformation, started production in June 2024, capacity utilization rate exceeded 70% by September 2024 [10] Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 9.873 billion, 12.187 billion, 14.274 billion yuan [10] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company forecast: 842 million, 1.298 billion, 1.489 billion yuan [10] - 2024-2026 PE ratio: 23x, 15x, 13x [10] - 2024-2026 ROE: 8%, 11%, 12% [14] - 2024-2026 gross margin: 23%, 25%, 25% [14] - 2024-2026 revenue growth rate: 8%, 23%, 17% [14] - 2024-2026 net profit growth rate: 7%, 54%, 15% [14]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's business structure optimization and refined management have driven rapid growth in performance [3] - The company's freight volume increased by 18.5% YoY in Q3 2024, with revenue growing by 21.2% YoY to 3.04 billion CNY [4] - Gross profit surged by 66.7% YoY to 480 million CNY, with gross margin improving by 4.3 percentage points to 15.6% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 27.9% YoY to 190 million CNY, with net margin increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 6.2% [4] Business Performance - The number of freight partners and agents increased by 14.3% YoY to approximately 32,000 in Q3 2024 [7] - Terminal customers served by the company and its partners exceeded 5.8 million in H1 2024, up from over 5 million in the same period last year [7] - Average freight volume per outlet increased by 3.7% YoY to 117 tons in Q3 2024 [7] - The company's product competitiveness improved, with average shipment time reduced to less than 64 hours in September 2024, down from 68 hours in H1 2024 [7] - The loss rate per 100,000 shipments decreased to 0.03 in Q3 2024 from 0.04 in H1 2024, and complaints per 100,000 shipments dropped to 39.2 from 51 [7] Business Structure Optimization - The company's freight structure continued to optimize, with 0-70kg mini parcels growing by 37.3% YoY, 70-300kg small LTL (Less Than Truckload) growing by 22.6% YoY, and 300kg+ large LTL growing by 6.6% YoY in Q3 2024 [10] - The average weight per shipment decreased from 109kg in H1 2022 to 81kg in Q3 2024, reflecting significant optimization in freight structure [10] Cost Management and Profitability - The company reduced 55 less efficient small distribution centers in 2023 and optimized its fleet management, leading to a significant decrease in core costs [13] - Unit trunk line cost decreased from 0.317 CNY/kg in Q3 2023 to 0.297 CNY/kg in Q3 2024, and unit distribution center cost dropped from 0.168 CNY/kg to 0.140 CNY/kg [13] - The company's gross margin reached 15.6% in Q3 2024, up 4.2 percentage points YoY [13] - Management expense ratio remained low, with Q3 2024 at 7.3%, down from 9.9% in H1 2022 [14] Strategic Focus - The company is implementing the "Five Best" strategy, focusing on cost optimization, quality improvement, stable delivery times, fast service response, and dense network coverage [15] - The strategy aims to enhance customer retention and attract new customers, driving long-term growth in both volume and profitability [15] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by 17% YoY to 11.6 billion CNY in 2024, 16% YoY to 13.5 billion CNY in 2025, and 13% YoY to 15.24 billion CNY in 2026 [19] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 105% YoY to 803 million CNY in 2024, 24% YoY to 1 billion CNY in 2025, and 15% YoY to 1.15 billion CNY in 2026 [19] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 10.79x in 2024, 8.67x in 2025, and 7.53x in 2026 [19]