Geely Automobile - Geely Automobile reported a 36% YoY increase in total revenue to RMB 167.68 billion and a 358.48% YoY increase in net profit to RMB 13.05 billion for the first three quarters of 2024 [7] - In Q3 2024, Geely's revenue reached RMB 60.38 billion, up 20.5% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 2.46 billion, up 92.4% YoY [8] - Geely's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in Q3 2024 reached 225,700 units, accounting for 42.26% of total sales, up 11.48 percentage points YoY [9] - Geely acquired an additional 11.3% stake in Zeekr, increasing its ownership to 62.8%, and Zeekr acquired a 51% stake in Lynk & Co for RMB 9.37 billion [10] Wanhua Chemical - Wanhua Chemical's MDI price rebounded in October 2024, with the company's Q4 price difference index at the 13.27th percentile historically [15] - Wanhua's key projects include a 1.5 million tons/year MDI technical renovation project in Fujian and a 10,000 tons/year vanillin industrial chain project [16] - In October 2024, the average price of pure MDI was RMB 18,248/ton, down 11.67% YoY, while the price difference between pure MDI and raw materials increased by 2.71% MoM [20] - Wanhua's Q4 2024 net profit is expected to reach RMB 3.9 billion, driven by improved price differences and operational efficiency [15] Alibaba Group - Alibaba's FY2025Q2 revenue reached RMB 2.365 trillion, up 5% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 43.5 billion, up 63% YoY [29] - Taotian Group's revenue grew 1% YoY to RMB 99 billion in Q3 2024, with a take rate remaining stable and order volume growing double-digit YoY [30] - Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew 7% YoY to RMB 29.6 billion in Q3 2024, with AI-related revenue growing triple-digit YoY for five consecutive quarters [32] - Alibaba repurchased 414 million shares worth $4.1 billion in Q3 2024, with $22 billion remaining under its share repurchase program [32] JD Group - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 260.4 billion, up 5% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 12.8 billion, up 56% YoY [76] - JD Retail's revenue grew 6% YoY to RMB 225 billion in Q3 2024, driven by a 20% YoY increase in third-party merchant users and a 30% YoY increase in orders [78] - JD Logistics' revenue grew 7% YoY to RMB 44.4 billion in Q3 2024, with an operating profit margin of 4.7%, up 4 percentage points YoY [79] - JD Logistics partnered with Taotian Group to provide supply chain solutions for Taobao and Tmall merchants, expected to contribute to future revenue growth [79] Lenovo Group - Lenovo's FY2025H1 revenue reached $33.3 billion, up 21.92% YoY, with a net profit of $602 million, up 41.37% YoY [90] - Lenovo's Intelligent Devices Group revenue grew 15% YoY to $24.9 billion in FY2025H1, driven by strong performance in PCs and smartphones [92] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue grew 65% YoY to $6.5 billion in FY2025H1, with operating losses narrowing and approaching breakeven [94] - Lenovo's Solutions and Services Group revenue reached a record $2.165 billion in FY2025Q2, with an operating profit margin of 20% [95] Aluminum Industry - China's aluminum export tax rebate will be canceled starting December 1, 2024, potentially increasing export costs and reducing export volumes [41] - Domestic alumina prices continued to rise in November 2024, with tight supply due to production disruptions in Guinea and environmental restrictions in China [47] - Aluminum processing industry faced challenges in November 2024, with weak demand in the construction sector and potential impacts from the export tax rebate cancellation [43] - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain high profitability due to limited supply growth and strong demand, with a "recommended" rating for the sector [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (02618) [3] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved record-high profitability in Q3 2024, driven by cost optimization and external order growth [3] - External orders remain the primary revenue source, accounting for 71.20% of total revenue [6] - The company's net profit surged 438.15% YoY to RMB 2.445 billion in Q3 2024 [3] Financial Performance Revenue - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 44.396 billion, up 6.56% YoY [3] - Internal revenue from JD Group grew 8.13% YoY to RMB 12.788 billion, accounting for 28.80% of total revenue [6] - External revenue increased 5.94% YoY to RMB 31.608 billion [6] Profitability - Net profit attributable to shareholders skyrocketed 928.77% YoY to RMB 2.205 billion [3] - Non-IFRS profit rose 205.14% YoY to RMB 2.573 billion [3] - Gross profit margin improved by 3.79 percentage points to 11.71% [10] Cost Structure - Operating costs increased 2.18% YoY to RMB 39.198 billion, lower than revenue growth [11] - Outsourcing costs as a percentage of revenue decreased by 1.26 percentage points [11] Business Segments External Integrated Supply Chain - Revenue grew 1.23% YoY to RMB 7.875 billion, representing 17.74% of total revenue [6] - Customer base expanded 9.36% YoY to 59,300 [6] Pure Distribution Business - Revenue increased 7.60% YoY to RMB 23.733 billion, accounting for 53.46% of total revenue [6] - Deppon contributed RMB 9.850 billion, up 1.03% YoY [6] - Non-Deppon revenue grew 12.80% YoY to RMB 13.883 billion [6] Future Outlook - Revenue is projected to grow 9%, 8%, and 7% in 2024-2026, reaching RMB 182.424 billion, RMB 196.535 billion, and RMB 211.010 billion respectively [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase 1035%, 10%, and 10% in 2024-2026 [12] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted at 13.03x, 11.83x, and 10.80x for 2024-2026 [12]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Lenovo Group achieved strong double-digit growth across all three business groups for the first time in three years during FY2025H1, driven by the initial success of hybrid AI [1][3] - Revenue for FY2025H1 reached $33.297 billion, a 21.92% YoY increase, with net profit rising 41.37% to $602 million [1] - Q2 FY2025 revenue grew 23.87% YoY and 15.56% QoQ to $17.85 billion, with net profit increasing 43.85% YoY and 47.32% QoQ to $359 million [1] Business Segments Summary Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) - Revenue for FY2025H1 was approximately $24.9 billion, a 15% YoY increase, with operating profit growing 22% [3] - AI PCs accounted for 14% of total laptop shipments in China during Q2 FY2025 [3] - Smartphone revenue surged 43% YoY, driven by strong growth in APAC, EMEA, and North America [3] Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) - Revenue grew 65% YoY to $6.5 billion in FY2025H1, marking a historic high [3] - Operating losses narrowed by approximately $1 million QoQ in Q2 FY2025, moving closer to breakeven [3] - The Neptune liquid cooling solution attracted new orders, leveraging expertise in high-performance computing [3] Solutions and Services Group (SSG) - Q2 FY2025 revenue reached a record high of $2.165 billion, with an operating margin of 20% [3] - SSG contributed 32% of the total operating profit from the three business groups [3] - The group is well-positioned to capitalize on hybrid AI trends, driving future growth [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for FY2025E and FY2026E is projected at $66.127 billion and $71.493 billion, respectively, with YoY growth of 16.3% and 8.1% [7][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be $1.299 billion in FY2025E and $1.462 billion in FY2026E, with EPS of $0.10 and $0.12, respectively [7][8] - P/E ratios for FY2025E and FY2026E are forecasted at 11.24X and 10.00X [7][8] Market Performance - Lenovo Group's stock underperformed the Hang Seng Index over the past year, with a -16.0% return compared to the index's -4.4% [3] - Current stock price is HKD 9.17, with a 52-week range of HKD 7.80-12.26 [3] - Market capitalization stands at HKD 113.75 billion [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longda Foodstuff (002726) [1] Core Views - Longda Foodstuff's food segment shows steady growth with continuous business structure optimization [1] - The company's Q3 2024 revenue declined by 12.12% YoY to 2.97 billion yuan, but net profit surged 161.61% YoY to 15 million yuan [2] - The food segment accounted for over 20% of total revenue, with prepared food revenue reaching 1.509 billion yuan in the first three quarters [3] - The slaughtering business saw improved profitability through channel restructuring and high-margin product development [3] - The breeding business turned profitable in Q3 2024 due to rising pig prices and effective cost control [3] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 8.014 billion yuan, down 20.7% YoY, while net profit increased 111.26% YoY to 73 million yuan [2] - Q3 2024 prepared food revenue grew 34.61% QoQ to 536 million yuan, driven by seasonal demand and new customer acquisition [3] - The company's slaughtering volume reached 3.6008 million heads in Q1-Q3 2024, with breeding output at 247,600 heads [3] - The company's total market capitalization stood at 7.26275 billion yuan as of November 18, 2024 [3] Strategic Development - The company focuses on expanding its food business through product diversification and channel optimization [3] - The "consolidate existing and develop new" strategy for large B-end customers has shown effectiveness [3] - The company is strengthening its presence in online and new retail channels for C-end customers [3] - The Q4 2024 Spring Festival season is expected to boost annual performance [3] Industry Analysis - China's slaughtering and breeding industries are becoming more standardized under policy guidance [3] - The industry entered a de-capacity cycle in January 2023, leading to improved market conditions [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to reach 12.107 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 14.158 billion yuan by 2026 [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 102 million yuan in 2024 to 248 million yuan in 2026 [6] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.09 yuan in 2024 to 0.23 yuan in 2026 [6] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 71.11 in 2024 to 29.33 in 2026 [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's current price is 6.73 yuan, with a 52-week range of 5.93-8.75 yuan [3] - ROE is projected to improve from 6% in 2024 to 12% in 2026 [6] - P/B ratio is expected to decline from 4.58 in 2024 to 3.57 in 2026 [6] - P/S ratio is forecasted to decrease from 0.60 in 2024 to 0.51 in 2026 [6]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights potential investment opportunities driven by improving demand in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [1] - Key areas of focus include the pig farming, poultry, animal health, planting, feed, and pet industries [1][3][4][7][8][9] Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming sector shows signs of recovery with a decline in sow inventory and weak capacity restoration [1][25] - The sow inventory in Q3 2024 decreased by 4.2% YoY, and piglet prices have significantly dropped, indicating weak capacity recovery [25] - The report predicts a rebound in Q4 2024 and expects pig prices to remain above the cost line throughout 2025 [25] - Recommended companies include Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, and Julong Animal Husbandry, with attention on Tangrenshen Group, Huatong Meat Products, and Guanghong Holdings [25] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a recovery in chicken prices, with white-feathered chicken prices showing signs of stabilization [3][38] - The report forecasts an improvement in industry sentiment as consumption improves, recommending companies like Sunner Development and Yisheng Livestock & Poultry [3][40] - The yellow-feathered chicken industry is also showing stable profitability, with recommended companies including Lihua Animal Husbandry and Wens Foodstuff Group [40] Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand and expansion opportunities [4][53] - Companies like Ruipu Biology are expanding through acquisitions, such as the purchase of a 15% stake in Zhongrui Huapu for 131 million yuan, enhancing their strategic layout in the pet health sector [53] - Recommended companies include Ruipu Biology, Keqian Biology, and China Animal Husbandry Industry [53] Planting Sector - The planting sector is experiencing fluctuations in major grain prices, with corn and wheat prices showing downward trends [66] - The report suggests focusing on companies with early reserves in genetically modified seed research and development, such as Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [66] Feed Sector - Feed prices continue to decline, improving breeding costs [70][71] - The report recommends companies like Haid Group and Hefeng Animal Husbandry, as the feed industry is expected to see increased concentration [72] Pet Sector - The pet sector is in a rapid development phase, with domestic brands showing strong growth [85][86] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, brands like Myfoodie and Fuli Jiade under Guibao Pet saw significant sales growth, with Myfoodie achieving a GMV of 670 million yuan, up 65% YoY, and Fuli Jiade reaching 200 million yuan, up 190% YoY [86] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, Zhongpet, and Petpal Pet Nutrition in the pet food sector, and Ruipu Biology in the pet healthcare sector [86] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for key companies in the sector, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Sunner Development, and others, with most companies receiving a "Buy" rating [96]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618 HK) [4] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 2604 billion RMB (YoY +5%, QoQ -11%), slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.2 billion RMB (YoY +24%, QoQ -9%), significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations [4][15] - The company has repurchased $3.6 billion worth of shares as of September 30, 2024, with a new share repurchase plan allowing up to $5 billion in buybacks by August 2027 [4] Business Performance JD Retail - JD Retail revenue grew 6% YoY to 2250 billion RMB in Q3 2024, driven by increased active users and order volume [6] - The "Spring Dawn Plan" upgrade introduced 15 new initiatives, including traffic support and advertising subsidies, leading to over 20% YoY growth in third-party merchant transaction users and over 30% YoY growth in order volume [6] - Electronics category revenue grew 3% YoY, benefiting from national subsidy policies for trade-in programs [6] - Daily necessities category revenue grew 8% YoY, with supermarket and apparel categories achieving double-digit growth [6] JD Logistics - JD Logistics revenue reached 44.4 billion RMB in Q3 2024 (YoY +7%, QoQ flat) [9] - Operating profit margin improved by 4.0 percentage points YoY to 4.7% [9] - Integrated supply chain customer revenue grew 5.4% YoY to 20.7 billion RMB [9] - Other customer revenue grew 7.6% YoY to 23.7 billion RMB, driven by growth in express delivery and freight services [9] Financial Metrics - Gross profit was 45 billion RMB in Q3 2024 (YoY +16%, QoQ -2%), with a gross margin of 17.3% [17] - Operating profit was 12 billion RMB (YoY +29%, QoQ +15%), with an operating margin of 4.6% [17] - Net profit was 12.8 billion RMB (YoY +56%, QoQ -6%), with a net profit margin of 4.9% [17] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are raised to 11,399/12,075/12,737 billion RMB [24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected at 37.7/43.1/47.5 billion RMB [24] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 45/51.1/55.4 billion RMB, with Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 9/8/7X [24] - Target price is set at 164 RMB/177 HKD based on SOTP valuation, implying a target market cap of 523.1 billion RMB for 2025 [24][25] Market Performance - JD Group's stock price has shown significant outperformance relative to the Hang Seng Index, with 12-month returns of 28.7% compared to the index's 7.5% [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Home Depot (HD), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - Home Depot's Q3 FY2024 performance exceeded market expectations, leading to an upward revision of its full-year guidance. The company reported sales of $40.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.6%, while comparable sales decreased by 1.3% [1]. - The company anticipates a full-year sales growth of 4% year-over-year, an increase from the previous guidance of 2.5% to 3.5% [1]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the U.S. interest rate cuts on the real estate market, which is expected to boost demand for home improvement products [1]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Home Depot's Q3 FY2024 sales reached $40.2 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 6.6%. Comparable sales decreased by 1.3%, while net profit was $3.6 billion, down 4.3% year-over-year. The diluted EPS was $3.67, a decrease of 3.7% year-over-year [1]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) was 33.4%, down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year, and the operating profit margin (OPM) was 13.5%, down 0.9 percentage points year-over-year [1]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the U.S. construction spending continues to show a year-over-year growth trend, with new home sales improving in the July-September period [1]. - The company expects a recovery in real estate demand due to the interest rate cuts, which will likely drive sales growth in home improvement products [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2026 are $158.1 billion, $166.4 billion, and $174.7 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 4%, 5%, and 5% [1]. - The report forecasts net profits of $15.1 billion, $15.6 billion, and $16.3 billion for FY2024 to FY2026, with growth rates of -1%, +4%, and +4% [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (9988.HK) [1] Core Views - Alibaba's commercialization strategy is steadily advancing, focusing on high-quality GMV growth, with core business showing robust growth [4][39] - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY2025Q2, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5% [2][12] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 47.3 billion yuan, down 4% year-over-year [2][12] Financial Performance Summary - **Overall Performance**: For FY2025Q2, Alibaba achieved a net profit of 43.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 63% year-over-year, and a 81% increase quarter-over-quarter [2][12][13] - **Segment Performance**: - **Taobao Group**: Revenue reached 99 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 1%. The adjusted EBITA was 44.6 billion yuan, with an EBITA margin of 45% [4][39] - **International Digital Commerce Group**: Revenue grew by 29% year-over-year to 31.7 billion yuan, driven by strong growth in cross-border business [44] - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Revenue increased by 7% year-over-year to 29.6 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for five consecutive quarters [49] - **Profitability Metrics**: The operating profit margin was 14.9%, and the net profit margin was 18.4% for FY2025Q2 [36] Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027, estimating revenues of 1,005.9 billion yuan, 1,110.6 billion yuan, and 1,222.8 billion yuan respectively [51] - The target market capitalization for FY2025 is set at 2,055.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 107 yuan per share [51][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products starting December 1 will increase export costs and may impact the export volume of aluminum processing companies [8] - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a tight supply of bauxite, which is expected to support the prices of alumina [14][17] - The overall demand for aluminum remains stable, with some recovery in downstream orders, particularly in the appliance sector [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of November 15, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2656.5 per ton, up $29.5 from the previous week, and up 19.4% year-on-year [25] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 20780.0 CNY per ton, down 910.0 CNY from the previous week, but up 9.6% year-on-year [25] 2. Production - The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum is 837,000 tons, down slightly from the previous week but up 3.3% year-on-year [59] - The weekly production of alumina is 1.647 million tons, up 0.9% from the previous week and up 4.9% year-on-year [59] 3. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable, with some companies undergoing maintenance, limiting supply [9] - The demand from downstream sectors is stable, with some companies increasing production to meet orders [10] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the industry include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][6][44]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand is currently weak during the off-season, but there is a focus on stocking up for the Q4 peak season. It emphasizes the potential for recovery in the food and beverage sector due to recent policy implementations aimed at stimulating consumption and improving macroeconomic conditions [1][6][44]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 3.56% in the week of November 11-15, 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 3.52%. Among sub-sectors, beer had the smallest decline at 1.73%, while soft drinks and meat products fell by 2.21% and 2.53%, respectively [3][28]. - In October 2024, the total retail sales in China reached 4.54 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, primarily driven by cosmetics, sports and entertainment products, and home appliances [2][6]. Key Recommendations - For the liquor segment, the report recommends stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others, suggesting a focus on brands that maintain stable pricing amid promotional activities [6][44]. - In the consumer goods category, recommended stocks include Bairun, Three Squirrels, Jin Zai Foods, and others, with a focus on products with gifting attributes and those relevant to the upcoming Spring Festival [6][44]. Market Performance - The report notes that the liquor industry has been under pressure due to macroeconomic demand expectations, but recent policies are expected to enhance market confidence and lead to a valuation recovery in the liquor sector [2][6][44]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the food and beverage sector is currently at 21.87x, indicating a mid-range position among primary industries, with other liquor categories leading in valuation [28][38].