研究助理 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 通信 优于大市（维持） 市场表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 49% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《通宇通讯(002792.SZ)：全栈布局 初现雏形，参与通信试验卫星》， 2025.4.11 2.《卫星互联网手机宽带直连，天地 融合通信将加速》，2025.4.5 3.《运营商投资向算力倾斜，AIDC 具 有持续性》，2025.3.29 4.《中国移动(600941.SH)：HBN 拉 动业务增长，算力转型走深走实》， 2025.3.28 5.《运营商 capex 向算力倾斜，持续 看好推理侧和 IDC 机会》，2025.3.22 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 通信 2025 年 04 月 12 日 五大关键领域部署具体任务：包括健全低空管理体系、优化空域资源配置、提升运 行服务质效、夯实基础支撑能力、强化依法管空用空。数据显示，截至 2023 年， 我国低空经济 ...

2025年04月 11日 宏观点评 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号: S0120524070001 邮箱:zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 连桐杉 邮箱:liants@tebon.com.cn 相关研究 《如何理解春节镜像效应下的 CPI? -2025年2月通胀数据点评》 如何理解关税风暴下的 CPI? -2025年3月通胀数据点评 投资要点: 《如何理解春节效应下的 CPI? -- 2025年1月通胀数据点评》 《2024年通胀答卷 -- 2024年12月 通胀数据点评》 《CP| 缘何显著低于预期 ?-- 2024 年 11月通胀数据点评》 《国内需求叠加产业需求,价格有望 进一步趋稳 -- 2024年 10月通胀数 据点评》 《国内需求叠加产业需求,PP| 筑底 反弹可期 -- 2024 年 9 月通胀数据 点评》 《猪价推升 CPI, PPI 关注铜油钢— -2024年8月通胀数据点评》 > 如何理解 3月 CPI 数据的结构? 从环比来看. CPI 环比小于季节性主因天气转暖+油价下行。一是天气转暖,部分 鲜活食品大量上市,影响 CPI 环比下降约 0. ...

李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 通宇通讯(002792.SZ) 2025 年 04 月 11 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：通信/通信设备 当前价格(元)：12.85 证券分析师 市场表现 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M -34% -17% 0% 17% 34% 51% 69% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 通宇通讯 沪深300 | 绝对涨幅(%) | -16.99 | -15.57 | -7.35 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对涨幅(%) | -12.06 | -11.32 | -7.42 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《通宇通讯(002792.SZ)：5G-A 带来 传统业务新场景，卫星铸就第二增长 曲线》，2024.12.3 通宇通讯(002792.SZ)：全栈布 局初现雏形，参与通信试验卫星 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件：2025 年 4 月 1 日 12 时 00 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the commercialization of 5G-A and the development of satellite internet, with significant growth expected in revenue and net profit over the next few years [5][7] - The company has made strategic investments and partnerships to enhance its capabilities in satellite communication and is expected to continue expanding its presence in this sector [5][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative decline compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute returns of -16.99% over the past month [4][3] - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks has been between 9.60 and 18.43 yuan [6] Financial Data and Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1,294 million yuan in 2023 to 1,968 million yuan by 2026, with corresponding net profits increasing from 81 million yuan to 267 million yuan [6][8] - The expected EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.16 yuan in 2023 to 0.51 yuan in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][8] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 20.8% in 2023 to 28.2% in 2026, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [6][8] Industry Insights - The report highlights the supportive policy environment for 5G-A development, with major telecom operators actively promoting its rollout [7] - The company is strategically positioned within the telecommunications infrastructure sector, focusing on both traditional cellular networks and emerging satellite communication technologies [5][7]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 有色金属 2025 年 04 月 11 日 有色金属 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所、聚源数据 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 相关研究 1.《有色金属周报：对美关税反制， 战略金属价值显现，黄金再迎布局良 机》，2025.4.7 2. 《 黄 金 ： 万 里 长 征 方 起 步 》， 2025.4.1 3.《赤峰黄金：提产降本推动利润提 升》，2025.4.1 4.《藏格矿业（000408.SZ）：巨龙铜 业投资收益大幅增长，巨龙二期稳步 推进》，2025.3.31 5.《云铝股份：业绩水平提升，电解 铝产量创历史新高》，2025.3.3 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March 2025, the CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.1%, improving by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month’s -0.7%[6] - The CPI month-on-month decreased by -0.4%, a decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month’s -0.2%[6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of -0.1% in the previous month[5] Group 2: Food and Energy Impact - Food prices fell by 1.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.9 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Key food items like beef, fresh vegetables, and eggs saw price drops of 10.8%, 6.8%, and 1.6% respectively, contributing to the overall CPI decline[5] - International oil prices decreased, contributing to a month-on-month CPI decline of approximately 0.12 percentage points[3] Group 3: PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline was -2.5%, worsening from -2.2% in the previous month[26] - Month-on-month, the PPI decreased by -0.4%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[26] - The decline in PPI was influenced by falling prices in the oil and gas extraction industry, which dropped by 4.4%[10] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The 2025 CPI target growth rate is set at 2%, a reduction from the previous 3% target established since 2015[7] - The report suggests that the key to exiting the "low-price" environment is to boost core CPI, with real estate market stabilization being crucial[6] - The anticipated impact of tariff increases is expected to result in a 3% decline in export growth, correlating with a 0.20 percentage point drop in PPI and a 1.30 percentage point increase in CPI[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.35 billion to 2.50 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.38% to 75.93% [5][6] - The decline in coal prices has improved cost conditions, while the price spread of olefins continues to expand, leading to an increase in product profit margins [6] - The company is entering a phase of rapid capacity release, with significant year-on-year growth in olefin production and sales [6] - The establishment of a third base in Xinjiang is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities for the company [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Baofeng Energy's stock has shown a relative decline compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute declines of -13.42% over the past month [4] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a significant increase in revenue, with expected operating income of 53.07 billion yuan in 2025, up 60.9% year-on-year [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 14.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 125.7% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 1.95 yuan in 2025 [8] Production and Capacity - The first series of the Inner Mongolia coal-to-olefins project has reached full production capacity, contributing to the increase in olefin output [6] - The company plans to complete the ramp-up of three production lines in the first half of 2025, which will further enhance production capacity [6] Strategic Developments - The Xinjiang coal-to-olefins project is progressing, with a planned capacity of 4 million tons per year, marking the company's third major production base [6] - Ongoing projects in Ningdong and Inner Mongolia are also in the planning stages, indicating robust long-term growth potential [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 宝丰能源(600989.SH) 2025 年 04 月 10 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：基础化工/化学原料 当前价格(元)：15.48 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 宝丰能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -13.42 | -10.74 | -11.17 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -6.90 | -5.45 | -8.71 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！》， 2025.3.12 2.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：进入产能 高速释放阶段！》，2024.12.26 3.《宝丰能源(600989 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 04 月 08 日 核心观点：截止 3 月底，中国外汇储备 32406.65 亿美元，环比增加 134.4 亿美 元。3 月美元指数回落，汇兑收益或导致估值效应带来外储增值；3 月出口或维持 较强，交易因素也可能导致外储增值。向前看，外储方面，预计短期估值效应推动 外储增值，交易因素则可能造成不小的外储减值压力；汇率方面，关税冲击消化后 人民币汇率有望回升；央行货币政策方面，外部冲击已至，宽货币"择机"窗口或 即将到来。 估值效应和交易因素或共同推动 3 月外储增加：从外储变化的各因素来看，估值 效应和交易因素或都带来了外储增加的动力。一方面，美元走弱导致非美外债产生 汇兑收益；另一方面，出口有望维持强势，交易因素也可能导致外储增加。 估值效应： 欧、日长债收益率普升， ...

相关研究 重视粮食安全与种业自主可控的投资机遇 ——2025 年中观产业主题系列 2 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 政策强调种业自主可控和粮食安全的重要性 事件 1：2025 年 4 月 7 日，中共中央、国务院印发了《加快建设农业强国规划（2024 －2035 年）》，强调加快以种业为重点的农业科技创新，加快实现种业科技自立自 强、种源自主可控。加快建设南繁硅谷。实施生物育种重大专项。 事件 2：2025 年 2 月 23 日，《中共中央国务院关于进一步深化农村改革扎实推进 乡村全面振兴的意见》正式向社会公布，强调确保国家粮食安全，确保不发生规模 性返贫致贫。继续把确保国家粮食安全摆在首要位置，强调深入推进粮油作物大面 积单产提升行动。 重视粮食+食品安全、生物育种的投资机遇 围绕粮食+食品安全与生物育种的投资机遇正逐步展开，随着海外关税政策不确定 性的提高，粮食与食品进口的量价的稳定性可能会持续受到冲击，牢牢把 ...