Market Overview - European stocks experienced significant declines, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index dropping 5.1% and multiple markets reaching multi-month lows due to trade war concerns stemming from U.S. tariffs and China's strong countermeasures[3] - The U.S. stock market saw a sharp drop, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 5.5% to close at 38,314.9 points, marking its largest single-day decline since the COVID-19 pandemic[13] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%[13] - The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that new tariffs could have a more significant economic impact than anticipated, suggesting no immediate interest rate adjustments[8] Commodity Markets - Oil prices hit a nearly four-year low, with WTI crude oil falling 7.4% to $61.99 per barrel, driven by concerns over global economic slowdown due to tariff policies[29] - Gold prices also declined, with a drop of 2.7% to $3,012.0 per ounce, following a retreat from historical highs[29] Currency Movements - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.9% to 103.02, reflecting a stronger dollar against other currencies amid rising trade tensions[28] - The Australian dollar fell sharply by 4.6% against the U.S. dollar, indicating broader currency weakness in response to global economic concerns[28] Sector Performance - All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index declined, with energy and financial sectors leading the losses at 8.7% and 7.4%, respectively[13] - In the Asian markets, the Thai Stock Exchange Index dropped 3.2%, while the Singapore Straits Times Index fell 3.0%, reflecting regional market reactions to U.S. tariff announcements[24]

环球市场动态 关 税 等 因 素 对 内 地 PMI 的 影 响 逐 渐 显 现 股 票 周一 A 股低开低走，尾盘收窄跌幅， 大盘成交低迷；港股再度大跌，科技 股普遍表现不佳，自高点回调已超 过 10%；欧洲股市受关税困扰录得 四连跌，4 月份欧央行是否降息仍 是未知数；美股低开高走，医药、金 融股推动大盘回暖，市场对科技股 仍有明显谨慎态度，金龙中国指数 收于近一个月最低水平。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普威胁加强针对俄罗斯原油出 口的制裁力度，消息牵动国际油价 周一上涨，创下逾一个月新高。市场 忧虑关税对经济构成冲击，资金继 续流入避险产品，金价再创下纪录 新高，美元汇价靠稳。 固 定 收 益 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 2025 年 3 月中国制造业 PMI 为 50.5，较上月提高 0.3；中国非制造业 PMI 为 50.8，较上月提高 0.4。3 月制 造业 PMI 较上月回升，但去年 10 月以来首次低于过去 5 年均值，反映制造业景气有所回落。结合分项数据和 实物工作量指标看，制造业的生产端和需求端均出现小幅回落，价格端进一步修复的动能有待提振。从结构上 看，装备制造业、高技术行业景气相对较好，传统 ...

Market Overview - A-shares continued to experience low trading volume and overall decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.67% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.57%[16] - European markets faced widespread declines due to ongoing concerns over Trump's tariff policies, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index down 0.77%[9] - U.S. markets saw significant drops, with the Dow Jones down 1.69% and the S&P 500 down 1.97%, driven by inflation concerns and consumer confidence data[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE inflation rate rose to 2.8%, exceeding market expectations of 2.7%, contributing to rising inflation concerns[9] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to its lowest level in over two years, indicating deteriorating consumer confidence[9] - Trump's tariff threats have heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, impacting market sentiment negatively[9] Commodity and Currency Trends - International gold prices reached new highs, with gold futures up 0.8% to $3,086.5 per ounce, driven by inflation fears[27] - Crude oil prices declined, with NYMEX crude down 0.8% to $69.36 per barrel, amid concerns over reduced energy demand due to tariffs[27] - The U.S. Dollar Index decreased by 0.3% to 104.04, reflecting market reactions to economic data and tariff concerns[26] Sector Performance - In the U.S., all but the defensive utility sector saw declines, with technology stocks like Alphabet and Amazon dropping over 4%[9] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.65%, with technology and airline stocks leading the decline[11] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong showed resilience, gaining 1.4%, while the information technology sector fell 1.9%[12] Investment Insights - Meta Platforms is expected to benefit from new product launches and AI advancements, with a target price of $750, reflecting a potential upside from current levels[8] - The Chinese banking sector is set to raise RMB 520 billion through private placements, aimed at enhancing capital strength and supporting long-term growth[19] - GCL-Poly Energy is projected to benefit from industry recovery, with expectations of returning to profitability by 2026[14]

Group 1: South Korea Market Focus - The domestic situation in South Korea is becoming clearer, with recommendations to gradually increase stock allocations, particularly in SK Hynix and Doosan Enerbility [9][17][20] - Economic growth in South Korea is expected to slow down, with GDP growth projected to decline to 1.5% in 2025 due to internal and external pressures [11][12][19] - The upcoming presidential election in May may help alleviate political uncertainty, potentially leading to increased government spending to stimulate the economy [19][22] Group 2: Thailand Market Focus - Economic momentum in Thailand is weakening, with GDP growth forecasted to be 2.8% in 2025, down from previous expectations due to ineffective government stimulus policies [30][31][34] - Market sentiment remains weak, and the effectiveness of government policies is a key factor influencing market performance [28][34] - Specific stocks to watch include CP ALL and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, with expectations of stable growth despite current market challenges [35][36] Group 3: Malaysia Market Focus - Malaysia's economic growth is stable overall, with GDP growth projected at 4.8% in 2025, slightly below the target of 5.0% due to global trade disruptions [42][43] - The market is expected to focus on defensive value, with recommendations for stocks like Gamuda and Eco World, which are seen as beneficiaries of ongoing demand in the data center sector [46][49][52] - The Malaysian Ringgit is expected to depreciate by 3-4% by the end of 2025, influenced by external factors rather than domestic weaknesses [45][46]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.15% and trading volume around 1.19 trillion yuan[17] - U.S. stocks fell due to concerns over escalating trade tensions, with the Dow Jones down 0.37% and the S&P 500 down 0.33%[10] - European stocks closed weakly, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.68% amid fears of increased tariffs on imported cars[10] Commodity and Currency Trends - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels, pushing oil prices to a one-month high, with WTI at $69.92 per barrel[28] - Gold prices reached a new high, closing at $3,061 per ounce, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty[28] - The U.S. dollar index fell slightly by 0.2% to 104.34, while the euro rebounded 0.44% to 1.08 against the dollar[27] Industrial Profit Data - China's industrial enterprises reported total profits of 9,109.9 billion yuan in January-February, a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, while revenue grew by 2.8% to 20.09 trillion yuan[7] - The profit margin decline was primarily due to lower profitability in upstream mining sectors, influenced by falling coal prices[7] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.41%, driven by strong performances in the biopharmaceutical sector, with stocks like Innovent Biologics up 17.4%[12] - The energy sector in the A-share market showed strength, with chemical stocks benefiting from improved downstream demand[17] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2024 was revised up to 2.4%, indicating a slight improvement in economic performance[7] - The IMF warned of a slowdown in global economic growth for 2025 but did not foresee an imminent recession[7]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to fluctuate with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.04%, Shenzhen Component down 0.05%, and ChiNext down 0.26%[18] - U.S. stocks ended a three-day rally with major indices declining; the Dow Jones fell 132 points (0.31%), S&P 500 dropped 1.12%, and Nasdaq decreased 2.04%[11] - European stocks generally closed lower, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.72% and the DAX down 1.17%[11] Economic Insights - The global strategic power restructuring is accelerating, with the "China-U.S.-Russia" triangle undergoing asymmetric reconstruction, impacting geopolitical dynamics[8] - China's economy is expected to show a "U"-shaped growth pattern, maintaining a growth rate of around 5% by 2025[8] - The U.S. economy may remain resilient, but uncertainties regarding policies need to be monitored[8] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rose, with WTI crude up 0.9% to $69.65 per barrel, driven by tightening supply outlooks[28] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.3% to 104.55, influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields[27] - Copper prices reached new highs amid potential tariffs on imports, reflecting ongoing trade tensions[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield at 4.02% and the 10-year yield at 4.35%[30] - The spread of Chinese investment-grade bonds widened by 1-4 basis points, indicating increased risk perception[30] Stock Performance Highlights - CyberArk reported subscription revenue of $243 million, exceeding market expectations, with a target price of $422[11] - Alibaba's latest model launch contributed to a significant increase in its stock price, reflecting strong market interest[8] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.6%, driven by strong performances in technology and consumer sectors[13]

环球市场动态 " 对 等 关 税 " 存 在 一 定 预 期 差 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普拟收紧对委内瑞拉的制裁， 周一国际油价上涨超 1%；报道指特 朗普对等关税将更具针对性，缓解 金融市场紧张情绪，铜价受到提振。 固 定 收 益 周一美国国债下跌，特朗普关税减 免言论刺激风险偏好升温。另有密 集公司债发行，16 家公司发债的总 筹资金额近 250 亿美元。亚洲债券 情绪坚挺，中国 IG 利差收窄 1-2 个 基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 3 月 25 日 .s 入 a. 竹 股 票 周一 A 股探底回升，深海经济延续强 势；港股低开高走，午后不断上升， 家电股涨幅居前；欧洲股市走势分 歧，关税不确定性令市场谨慎；美股 科技股超跌反弹带领三大指数大涨， 特朗普表示关税将更具针对性缓解 市场对于全面性关税的担忧。 ▪ 我们认为 4 月或将是特朗普关税政策落地最为密集的时间点，4 月初《美国优先贸易政策备忘录》调查结果与 "对等关税" 的出台将是关键节点。"对等关税" 与对华关税应当区分看待："对等关税" ...

股 票 周三A股窄幅震荡，三大指数齐收跌； 港股分歧走势，恒指小幅上涨，科技 股拖累恒科指下跌；欧洲市场等待美 联储议息结果，总体情绪较为谨慎， 收盘涨跌不一；美联储维持利率不 变，鲍威尔发言安抚市场信心，美股 三大指数收涨，金龙中国指数连续第 二天下跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 受到中国市场供应收紧迹象提振， 周三国际铜价今早突破 1 万美元/ 吨；周三金价在高位靠稳；美国库存 数据缓解对需求的担忧，国际油价 小幅上涨。 环球市场动态 美 联 储 在 等 待 更 清 晰 的 信 息 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 美联储 2025 年 3 月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预期。本次点阵图显示今年目标利率中枢为 3.9%， 与 2024 年 12 月会议点阵图持平，同时上调今年通胀预测和失业率预测、下调经济增速预测。"等待更清晰的 信息" (Wait for greater clarity) 成为美联储的新口号，"通胀暂时论" 重出江湖，鲍威尔依旧认为长期通胀预期 稳定 (well anchored)。当前 "暂时性通胀 + 经济增长较弱 + 高不确定性" 的组合对应点阵图显示的年内 2 次 降息，我们认为三者中任何 ...

环球市场动态 美 国 滞 胀 风 险 的 阴 云 持 续 股 票 周二中国市场反弹，A 股仍处震荡 走势，港股权重股多数上行，科 技、医药、黄金板块表现亮眼；德 国联邦议会顺利通过财政预算案， 欧洲股市周二收高；美联储议息前 夕美股科技股拖累三大指数齐跌， 金龙中国指数小幅回落。 外 汇 / 商 品 供应过剩担忧掩盖了地缘紧张局 势，周二国际油价下跌；避险盘推 动黄金最高升至每盎司 3,047.5 美 元，再创纪录新高。 固 定 收 益 美国国债先跌后回升，中期美债引 领上涨， 20 年期国债发行获得强 劲需求。美股下跌，加之油价下滑， 支撑了美国国债的反弹势头。亚洲 投资级债券利差收窄 0.75-1.5 个基 点，中国 TMT 表现强劲。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 3 月 19 日 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 不同于上世纪 70-80 年代滞胀时期美国经济内生动力不足，当前美国科技发展等浪潮仍在继续，但紧缩的货币 与财政政策、特朗普关税等政策的负面影响，都将持续构成美国滞胀风险的阴云。未来通胀隐忧集中在特朗普 关 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies. Core Insights - European stocks have shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, with large-cap stocks leading the way and contributing significantly to gains. The report suggests that the upward trend in European stocks may continue due to various factors including economic policies and valuation comparisons with US stocks [7][10]. - The report highlights that the OECD has downgraded economic outlooks for most member countries, indicating potential challenges ahead [7]. - In the US market, despite mixed retail sales data, the overall consumer resilience remains strong, and major internet companies are seen as having opportunities for growth despite recent volatility [10][28]. Summary by Sections Global Market Dynamics - The US retail data has shown mixed results, with trade representative comments reducing uncertainty around tariff measures, leading to a decline in the dollar index to a two-month low [4][28]. - International oil prices have risen due to increased pressure on Iran, while copper prices have reached a five-month high amid China's plans to boost consumption [4][28]. European Market Insights - European stocks are expected to benefit from a combination of lower valuations compared to US stocks and supportive economic policies from the European Central Bank [7][10]. - The report notes that the geopolitical uncertainty in Europe has decreased, which may further support the valuation of European stocks [7]. US Market Insights - The report indicates that major internet companies in the US are experiencing volatility but present a buying opportunity due to their strong consumer demand and ability to manage costs [10]. - The report emphasizes that AI continues to drive growth in the internet sector, with companies leveraging technology for efficiency and cost reduction [10]. Asian Market Insights - The report mentions that the A-share market showed mixed results, with sectors like dairy and humanoid robots gaining traction, while others like non-ferrous metals faced declines [17][19]. - The Hong Kong market saw varied performances among major indices, with consumer stocks benefiting from government initiatives to boost consumption [12][13]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights the potential for growth in the consumer sector in China, driven by government policies aimed at increasing household income and consumption [15]. - Companies like Meituan are expected to maintain stable growth in their core local business, although international expansion may pose challenges [15]. Fixed Income Market Insights - The US Treasury yield curve has flattened, with market focus shifting to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for indications on future interest rate movements [5][31]. - The report notes that the bond market is experiencing mixed trading activity, with some sectors seeing inflows while others remain subdued [31].