Group 1: A-Share Market Focus - The impact of tariffs on PMI is gradually becoming evident, with manufacturing PMI for March showing a slight recovery but remaining below the five-year average, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment [12][15][16] - The government is expected to introduce policies to counteract economic slowdown pressures, with significant fiscal tools planned for implementation [16] - Key stocks to watch include ShouLiu Hotel and China Telecom, with the former expected to open 1,500 new hotels in 2025 and the latter anticipating steady growth in revenue and dividends [20][23] Group 2: US Market Focus - The US market is experiencing volatility due to Trump's policies, with tariffs expected to continue impacting stock performance, particularly in semiconductor companies like Broadcom and Analog Devices [35][39][47] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a passive approach, with expectations of limited rate cuts in the near term, despite inflation concerns [40][42] - The SPDR Utilities Select Sector ETF is highlighted as a stable investment option amid market uncertainties, benefiting from high dividend yields [50] Group 3: Thai Market Focus - The Thai central bank is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, influenced by declining energy prices and lower inflation forecasts [66][68] - Key stocks in the Thai market include CP All, which is projected to see a 14% increase in net profit in Q1 2025, and Osotspa, which aims to regain market share in the energy drink sector [74][75] - The overall economic outlook for Thailand is cautiously optimistic, with potential benefits from lower oil prices and anticipated interest rate cuts [71][72]

Market Overview - The US and China trade negotiations remain uncertain, impacting stock performance in Hong Kong and mainland China, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07% to 3,295.06 points[3] - The US Federal Reserve officials hinted at a potential interest rate cut in June, contributing to mixed performance in US stocks, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.3%[3][9] - The dollar index remained stable, while G-10 currencies generally depreciated against the dollar, with the Japanese yen experiencing the largest decline[4][27] Economic Policies - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need to strengthen bottom-line thinking in response to external economic pressures, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and social conditions[6] - China is expected to accelerate the issuance of special bonds in Q2, with monetary policy potentially including rate cuts to support consumption and technology sectors[6] - The meeting indicated a shift towards supporting service consumption and optimizing real estate policies, particularly in stock housing acquisition and urban village redevelopment[6] Stock Market Performance - Major US indices showed varied performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.05% to 40,113.5 points, and the S&P 500 rising by 0.7% to 5,525.2 points[8] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan's stock market led gains with a 2.0% increase, followed by Japan and the Philippines with rises of 1.9% and 1.8% respectively[21] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.32% at 21,980 points, with notable movements in technology stocks like Baidu, which rose by 3.85%[11] Commodity and Fixed Income Markets - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with NYMEX crude oil rising by 0.4% to $63.02 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 1.5%[27] - US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 4.24%, reflecting market expectations of a more dovish Fed[30] - New bond issuances performed strongly, with significant interest in local government bonds and corporate debt in the secondary market[30]

环球市场动态 内 地 货 币 政 策 配 合 的 必 要 性 正 在 提 升 股 票 A 股周一震荡分歧走势，沪指继续 小幅上涨，过去 11 个交易日上涨 10 次；港股偏弱震荡，午后走强；欧洲 股市走强，市场憧憬美国能够达成 贸易协定减低关税力度；美股强劲 反弹，特朗普、贝森特均释放出缓和 信号，市场获得提振，金龙中国指数 连续两日上涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 周二市场风险偏好回升，美元指数 反弹，美国可能限制伊朗石油出口， 国际油价上涨，国际金价从纪录高 位回落，伦敦期铜升至逾两周高位。 固 定 收 益 周二，美国国债涨跌不一。潜在贸易 协议的乐观情绪推升风险偏好，美 债收益率曲线趋平。2 年期美债拍 卖的需求平淡，2 年期美债收益率 在招标后攀升。亚洲投资级债券开 盘疲弱，随着买盘流入，利差收窄 2- 5 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 4 月 23 日 ▪ 我们测算今年二季度中国国债净融资规模约 1.77 万亿元，较往年同期高出约 7,000 亿元；地方债总发行规模 为 2.8 万亿元，净发行规模约 ...

Group 1: Japan Market Focus - The report highlights the commencement of tariff negotiations between Japan and the US, with potential concessions from Japan including LNG and military equipment purchases, and reduced agricultural import tariffs [11][13] - The report indicates that the Japanese economy's growth is expected to be driven by domestic demand, with a focus on companies with high domestic revenue, such as drugstore chains [19][20] - The report suggests that the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates in the second half of the year, with a target policy rate of 0.8%-1% by year-end [16][19] Group 2: India Market Focus - The report notes that India's overall CPI has dropped to its lowest level in nearly six years, which supports expectations for further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India [33][34] - The report emphasizes that India's economy is primarily driven by domestic demand, making it less susceptible to external trade policy impacts, and forecasts a stable long-term growth trend despite short-term cyclical slowdowns [40][41] - The report identifies Tata Communications and HDFC Asset Management as key investment opportunities, with Tata Communications expected to see double-digit growth in data services revenue [42][41] Group 3: Gold Market Focus - The report discusses the increasing global demand for gold driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the impact of US tariff policies, which are expected to support higher gold prices [54][57] - The report anticipates that gold prices could reach $3,337 per ounce by mid-2025 under neutral conditions, with potential highs of $3,620 and lows of $3,081 under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively [54][57] - The report highlights investment opportunities in gold mining and jewelry sectors, specifically mentioning Shandong Gold and Laopu Gold as potential beneficiaries of rising gold prices [58][57]

环球市场动态 特 朗 普 关 税 频 繁 反 转 在 于 没 有 清 晰 规 划 股 票 A 股周一低开高走显韧性，黄金股 表现极佳；港股上周五及周一复活 节假期休市，周四三大指数齐涨；欧 洲股市同样复活节假期休市，上周 四整体表现偏弱；特朗普对鲍威尔 连续开炮令市场情绪紧绷，美股主 要股指全线大跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普施压美联储及贸易战忧虑， 周一美元指跌至三年低位，国际油 价跌超 2%，避险情绪升温推动金价 再创历史新高。 固 定 收 益 美国国债收益率曲线大幅趋陡，关 税不确定性持续及美联储相关风险 出现，投资者持续撤离美国资产。亚 洲债市交投清淡，资金双向流动均 衡。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 4 月 22 日 ▪ 特朗普政策摇摆的关键原因在于没有清晰的实现路径规划。因此，应减少对特朗普 "正向目标" 的探讨，更多 关注其面临的 "负向约束"，短期约束看市场波动、中期约束看财政法案、长期约束看中期选举。特别是今年四 季度进入中期选举准备期，特朗普将面临越来越明显的选举约束。第二，近期金融市场也对 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.26% while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext fell by 0.85% and 1.21% respectively[16] - The Hang Seng Index dropped significantly by 1.91%, with major tech stocks declining amid heightened competition and geopolitical tensions[11] - U.S. stocks fell sharply, with the Dow Jones down 1.73% and the Nasdaq down 3.07%, influenced by Powell's hawkish remarks and new chip export controls[9] Economic Indicators - In March, industrial production and service sectors experienced rapid growth, with industrial added value growth exceeding market expectations due to strong exports and durable goods consumption[6] - U.S. retail sales in March recorded the largest increase in two years, driven by strong auto sales, reflecting a 1.4% month-on-month growth[30] - China's investment growth in Q1 was robust, primarily driven by infrastructure investment, despite potential trade friction impacts from new tariffs[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - International oil prices rose nearly 2% due to geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil at $62.47 per barrel and Brent at $65.85[26] - The U.S. dollar index fell to a three-year low at 99.38, down 0.8%, reflecting weakened investor confidence amid tariff policies[26] - Gold prices reached new highs, with New York gold futures up 3.4% to $3,346.4 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand[26] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield at 3.77% and the 10-year yield at 4.28%, as market sentiment shifted towards safety amid stock market declines[30] - Asian bond markets showed weaker sentiment, with Chinese investment-grade bond spreads widening by 2-5 basis points[30]

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年4月14日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 股票 新加坡市场 是短期理想的避风港； 大华银行；吉宝数据中心 ETF iShares MSCI新加坡ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) (1) 欧元区焦点 不确定性增，欧央行延续 "以我为主"宽松货币政策 股票 短期等待 "美国衰退" 叙事的演绎；空中巴士 ； 德国莱茵金属 ETF 精选STOXX 欧洲航空航 天与国防ETF (2) 澳大利亚市场焦点 经济增速 有望抬升 股票 降息周期推进等待澳股转 折；澳航；昆士兰保险 ETF iShares安硕MSCI澳大利 亚ETF (3) 新加坡市场焦点 内需表现强劲抵销 出口疲软 1 本周主要国家 经济数据公布日程 上周环球 股市表现 特朗普关税推迟90天，美股连续反弹，全球市场避险情绪仍浓厚 | | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

环球市场动态 中美贸易战不断升级，近期油价剧 烈波动，上周五国际油价原油反弹 超 2%；避险需求持续推动黄金价格 上周五再创新高。 固 定 收 益 特朗普贸易战导致市场信心下降， 上周美债收益率大幅波动，10 年期 美债收益率上涨 50个基点，创逾 20 年来最大单周涨幅。周五亚洲债市 交投放缓，债券利差走阔。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 4 月 14 日 聚 焦 特 朗 普 所 面 临 的 约 束 股 票 周五 A 股震荡上行，国产半导体领 涨大市；港股连涨四天，大型科技股 涨跌不一，黄金股连续突破；欧洲股 市在前一日大幅冲高后出现回落， 市场继续观望特朗普关税最新进 展；美股周五继续反弹，美联储官员 暗示"救市"缓和市场担忧。 外 汇 / 商 品 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 中美贸易战升级的背景下，我们建议聚焦在特朗普所面临的约束而不是揣测其目的，把美国经济和美债利率作 为预判贸易战走向和节奏的关键变量。特朗普面临的核心约束是中期选举，而中期选举选民的认知通常提前三 个季度就会产生固化，至少今年三季度就必须开始推 ...

环球市场动态 关 税 阴 云 让 美 国 通 胀 的 降 温 黯 然 失 色 股 票 中国市场周四延续反弹，但受困与 弱于预期 CPI 影响冲高回落；欧洲 股市前一日收盘后特朗普方宣布推 迟对等关税，欧洲股市周四大幅反 弹，创三年来最大涨幅；美股再度进 入动荡，特朗普推迟关税狂欢后市 场重新担忧后续经济走势，盘中一 度创下新冠疫情爆发以来最大跌 幅，随后又在逢低买盘的推动下收 复部分失地 外 汇 / 商 品 投资者持续担忧关税对全球经济的 影响，周四国际油价再度回落超 3%；国际金价再创新高；美国通胀 意外降温，美元指数跌三连跌，至近 两年低位；瑞郎和日元在 G-10 货 币中涨幅居前。 固 定 收 益 美国国债涨跌不一，收益率曲线陡 化，长端美债收益率延续上升。续发 的 30 年期国债中标收益率创 1 月 以来最高。亚洲投资级债券利差收 窄 5-15 个基点，双向交投平衡。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 4 月 11 日 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 美国 3 月通胀增速再度全面低于预期和前值，总体 CPI 环比降 0 ...

Market Overview - Chinese policies are encouraging economic recovery, leading to a rebound in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks after a previous decline, with notable performance in domestic demand-related stocks[3] - European markets ended a four-day decline with a 2.7% rise in the Euro Stoxx 600 index, driven by hopes for progress in EU tariff negotiations[3] - U.S. markets experienced volatility, with the Nasdaq opening up 4% but closing down 2.2%, as concerns over escalating tariffs impacted market sentiment[3] Currency and Commodities - Trump's insistence on increasing tariffs on China has heightened risk aversion, causing the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to outperform other G-10 currencies, while the offshore yuan hit a record low[4] - Concerns over the U.S.-China trade war have led to a decline in global demand, with New York crude oil prices falling below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021, closing at $59.58[4][28] - International gold prices rebounded after three consecutive declines, with New York gold rising 0.6% to $2,968.4 per ounce[28] Fixed Income - The upcoming tariffs and ongoing trade tensions have led to market volatility and liquidity tightening, resulting in a sell-off of long-term U.S. Treasuries and a steepening yield curve[5][30] - Investment-grade bond spreads in Asia narrowed by 2-5 basis points as market sentiment slightly improved[5][30] Corporate Insights - The Chinese private enterprise bond market is showing signs of recovery, with net financing improving and financing costs decreasing, indicating potential investment opportunities[7] - Alibaba's projected revenue growth of approximately 8% for Q4 2025, reaching 238.6 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA expected to rise by 35% year-on-year[9] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rebounded, with a 1.51% increase, driven by strong performances in technology and consumer sectors, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.79%[13] - A-shares showed a steady recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.58% to 3,145 points, supported by government policies aimed at boosting agriculture and infrastructure[18]