Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting economic growth through various initiatives, including the introduction of child-rearing subsidies and the resumption of special bonds for land reserves [1][9][14] Summary by Sections Domestic Developments - The National People's Congress emphasized urban renewal and real estate stability, focusing on the renovation of old residential areas and the construction of complete communities [7] - The resumption of special bonds for land reserves aims to alleviate liquidity pressures on local governments and real estate companies, facilitating a recovery in the real estate market [9][10] - The introduction of child-rearing subsidies in Hohhot, providing up to 100,000 yuan for children born after March 1, 2025, is expected to ease economic burdens on families and enhance birth rates [14][15] International Developments - The report notes escalating trade tensions between the US and Europe, with the EU responding to US tariffs on steel and aluminum by imposing tariffs on 26 billion euros worth of US goods [2][16] - Japan's economic growth in Q4 2024 was lower than expected, raising concerns about the sustainability of its recovery amid potential tariff challenges [18][19] High-Frequency Data - Upstream: Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.13% week-on-week, while copper prices increased by 1.34% [24][32] - Midstream: The price index for thermal coal rose by 0.58%, while rebar prices fell by 1.35% [32] - Downstream: Real estate sales increased by 14.93% week-on-week, and the average daily retail sales of passenger cars grew by 14% year-on-year [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown impressive performance due to the benefits from centralized procurement, leading to increased sales volume. The successful launch of the Bailin capsule is also a significant milestone [1]. - For the year 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.58 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 505 million yuan, up 31.8% year-on-year [7]. - The core product, Wuling capsule, has maintained a strong market position, with revenue growth driven by expansion into new provinces and increased sales volume [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 1,942.44 million yuan - 2024E: 2,579.75 million yuan (growth rate: 32.81%) - 2025E: 3,431.07 million yuan (growth rate: 33.00%) - 2026E: 4,597.63 million yuan (growth rate: 34.00%) [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 382.94 million yuan - 2024E: 504.68 million yuan (growth rate: 31.79%) - 2025E: 668.98 million yuan (growth rate: 32.56%) - 2026E: 901.32 million yuan (growth rate: 34.73%) [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.55 yuan - 2024E: 0.72 yuan - 2025E: 0.95 yuan - 2026E: 1.29 yuan [2]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 14.09% - 2024E: 16.68% - 2025E: 19.13% - 2026E: 21.74% [2]. - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2023A: 28 - 2024E: 21 - 2025E: 16 - 2026E: 12 [2]. Product Performance - **Wuling Capsule**: - Revenue for the Wuling series in 2024 reached 1.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.1%. The sales volume and revenue of Wuling capsules increased by 22.6% and 15.96% respectively [7]. - **Bailin Products**: - The Bailin tablet generated sales revenue of 190 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year, primarily due to price impacts from centralized procurement [7]. Cost Management - The company has effectively managed its expenses, with a cost ratio of 39.4% in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the mid-year report [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has received approval for the first Trop2 ADC lung cancer indication globally, which aligns with previous expectations [7] - The expansion of indications is favorable for commercialization in China, with the company expected to participate in the 2025 national medical insurance negotiations [7] - The potential of the product is gradually being realized, with ongoing global phase III studies for additional lung cancer indications [7] - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for the company's product commercialization, with several products expected to be approved [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 1,540.5 million RMB - 2024E: 1,746.8 million RMB (growth rate: 13.4%) - 2025E: 1,836.7 million RMB (growth rate: 5.2%) - 2026E: 2,877.2 million RMB (growth rate: 56.7%) [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be negative, with figures as follows: - 2023A: -574.1 million RMB - 2024E: -350.1 million RMB - 2025E: -434.6 million RMB - 2026E: -286.1 million RMB [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -2.53 in 2023A to -1.26 in 2026E [2] - The company anticipates significant revenue from the product Lukanosatuzumab, with projected sales of 47 million RMB in 2024, 960 million RMB in 2025, and 1,886 million RMB in 2026 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhaoli Pharmaceutical (300181) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical's performance is significantly benefiting from the collective procurement strategy, which has led to impressive results. The successful launch of the Bailin capsule is also a key highlight [1][7]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.58 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 505 million yuan, up 31.8% year-on-year [7]. - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to see a net profit of 180 to 190 million yuan, indicating a growth of 25.0% to 32.7% year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 1,942.44 million yuan - 2024E: 2,579.75 million yuan (growth rate: 32.81%) - 2025E: 3,431.07 million yuan (growth rate: 33.00%) - 2026E: 4,597.63 million yuan (growth rate: 34.00%) [2][8] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 382.94 million yuan - 2024E: 504.68 million yuan (growth rate: 31.79%) - 2025E: 668.98 million yuan (growth rate: 32.56%) - 2026E: 901.32 million yuan (growth rate: 34.73%) [2][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.55 yuan - 2024E: 0.72 yuan - 2025E: 0.95 yuan - 2026E: 1.29 yuan [2][8] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 14.09% - 2024E: 16.68% - 2025E: 19.13% - 2026E: 21.74% [2][8] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2023A: 28 - 2024E: 21 - 2025E: 16 - 2026E: 12 [2][8] Product Performance - **Wuling Capsule**: - The core product, Wuling Capsule, has seen a revenue of 1.44 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.1%. Sales volume and revenue increased by 22.6% and 15.96% respectively [7]. - **Bailin Products**: - The Bailin tablet generated 190 million yuan in sales, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year, but the sales volume increased by 15.25%. The Bailin capsule was successfully launched in December 2024, with expectations for market expansion [7]. Cost Management - The company has shown continuous improvement in its expense ratio, which was 39.4% for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the mid-year report [7].

业绩快报[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 14 日 证券研究报告•2024年业绩快报&2025Q1 业绩预告点评 佐力药业（300181）医药生物 目标价：——元（6 个月） 买入 （维持） 当前价：15.41 元 受益于集采以价换量业绩表现亮眼，百令胶囊成功上市 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2025Q1 业绩预告和 2024年业绩快报，2024 年全年公司实现 营业总收入 25.8亿元，同比增长 32.8%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 5.05 亿 元，同比增长 31.8%，其中股权激励费用 569.8万元。2025 年第一季度归属于 上市公司股东的净利润为 1.8亿- 1.9亿元，同比增长 25.0%-32.7%，若剔除股 份支付费用影响（约 700万元），归母净利润增速将提升至 29.9%-37.6%，公司 核心业务增长动力强劲。 乌灵胶囊:受益于集采以价放量+小包装换大包装+省份拓展，收入稳健增长。乌 灵胶囊为公司核心产品，近年来该产品在城市公立医院和县级公立医院市场份额 排名均为第一。2024年乌灵系列实现营业收入 14.4亿元，同比增长 17.1%，其 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has received approval for the first global Trop2 ADC lung cancer indication, which aligns with previous expectations [7] - The expansion of indications is favorable for commercialization in China, with the company expected to participate in the 2025 national medical insurance negotiations [7] - The potential of the product is gradually being realized, with ongoing global phase III studies for additional lung cancer indications [7] - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for the company's product commercialization, with several products expected to be approved [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 1,540.5 million RMB - 2024E: 1,746.8 million RMB (growth rate: 13.4%) - 2025E: 1,836.7 million RMB (growth rate: 5.2%) - 2026E: 2,877.2 million RMB (growth rate: 56.7%) [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be negative, with figures as follows: - 2023A: -574.1 million RMB - 2024E: -350.1 million RMB - 2025E: -434.6 million RMB - 2026E: -286.1 million RMB [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -2.53 in 2023A to -1.26 in 2026E [2] - The company anticipates significant revenue from the product Lukanosatuzumab, with projected sales of 47 million RMB in 2024, 960 million RMB in 2025, and 1,886 million RMB in 2026 [9] Key Assumptions - The company is expected to receive collaboration payments from Merck, totaling approximately 1.7 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026 [8] - The approval of Lukanosatuzumab in November 2024 is anticipated to generate substantial revenue in the following years [8]

Domestic Developments - The National People's Congress emphasized urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of old residential areas, urban village transformations, and the construction of complete communities, aiming to stabilize the real estate market[7] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of special bonds for land reserves to alleviate liquidity pressure on local governments and real estate companies, supporting market stabilization[9] - Hohhot introduced a childcare subsidy policy providing up to 100,000 yuan for children born after March 1, 2025, aimed at easing childcare costs and boosting birth rates[14] International Developments - The U.S. CPI for February increased by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9% and the previous 3%, indicating a slowdown in inflation[22] - Germany's industrial output rose by 2.0% month-on-month in January, exceeding expectations, but exports fell significantly, highlighting economic uncertainties[16] - The EU announced countermeasures against U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, targeting goods worth 26 billion euros (approximately 28.3 billion USD)[16] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.13% week-on-week, while copper prices increased by 1.34%[24] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities rose by 14.93% week-on-week, with first-tier cities seeing a 34.53% increase[37] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars in March increased by 14% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand[37]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Convertible Bond K-line Shape Factor **Construction Idea**: Quantify K-line shapes to extract predictive information for convertible bonds, combining price trends and volume trends for enhanced forecasting ability [15][33][96] **Construction Process**: 1. Define single K-line shapes based on absolute values of body, upper shadow, and lower shadow, dividing them into 16 types [22][33][34] 2. Extend to multi-K-line shapes by incorporating relationships between adjacent K-lines, such as gap openings (e.g., high/low opening) [23][24][33] 3. Combine K-line shapes with price trends (e.g., position of closing price in historical range) and volume trends (e.g., shrinking, fluctuating, or increasing volume) for more complete predictive signals [25][33][96] **Formula**: - Single K-line scoring: $score_{p} = \frac{mean(r_{p})}{std(r_{p})}$ where $r_{p}$ represents the future 20-day returns of K-line shape $p$ [34][35] - Multi-K-line scoring: $KP_{c,T} = \sum_{t=T-40}^{T} w_{t} * score_{c,t}$ $w_{t} = 0.5^{\frac{T-t}{\lambda}}$ where $w_{t}$ is the exponential decay weight, $\lambda$ is half the window period [36][37] **Evaluation**: Effective in predicting convertible bond returns, especially post-2022, with stable IC and IR values [97][93][87] Model Backtesting Results - **Convertible Bond K-line Shape Factor**: - IC Mean: 0.11 [87][93][97] - IC Win Rate: 66.31% [87][93][97] - IR: 0.43 [87][93][97] - Group 1 Annualized Return: 6.34% [88][89][97] - Excess Return Win Rate: 70.08% [88][89][97] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Single K-line Shape Factor **Construction Idea**: Quantify single K-line shapes to identify predictive patterns for convertible bonds [22][33][96] **Construction Process**: 1. Divide K-line body, upper shadow, and lower shadow into short/long categories based on absolute thresholds (e.g., body > 2%, shadow > 1%) [22][33][34] 2. Combine these components to form 16 distinct single K-line shapes [22][33][34] **Evaluation**: Certain shapes (e.g., A6, A7) show high predictive power for short-term returns [42][46][54] - **Factor Name**: Multi-K-line Shape Factor **Construction Idea**: Incorporate relationships between adjacent K-lines to enhance predictive accuracy [23][33][96] **Construction Process**: 1. Define relationships such as gap openings (e.g., high/low opening) between adjacent K-lines [23][24][33] 2. Combine these relationships with single K-line shapes to form 768 distinct 2K shapes [24][33][66] **Evaluation**: Certain combinations (e.g., B5 + B3) are strong signals for upward trends [66][69][72] Factor Backtesting Results - **Single K-line Shape Factor**: - A6 Shape: Future 5-day excess return 48.04%, win rate > 60% [54][56][58] - A7 Shape: Future 5-day excess return 67.40%, win rate > 60% [54][56][58] - **Multi-K-line Shape Factor**: - B5 + B3 Shape: Future 5-day excess return 214.74% [66][69][71] - A5 + A6 Shape: Future 5-day excess return 208.06% [66][69][70] Factor Correlation Analysis - **Convertible Bond K-line Shape Factor**: - Correlation with other factors (e.g., implied volatility, YTM) is low, indicating unique information contribution [93][94][97]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a current price of 226.67 CNY and a target price not specified for the next six months [1]. Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage achieved strong revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 15.84 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.33 billion CNY, up 63.1% year-on-year [7]. - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange, and its overseas business is expected to contribute to long-term excess returns [7]. - The growth in the energy drink segment is driven by the 500ml large Dongpeng product, while the electrolyte drink segment is expanding into new consumption scenarios [7]. - The company has established a diversified product matrix with a "dual-engine + multi-category" approach, enhancing its market presence [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Revenue of 15.84 billion CNY, net profit of 3.33 billion CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 20.57 billion CNY, net profit of 4.42 billion CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 25.43 billion CNY, net profit of 5.58 billion CNY - 2027E: Revenue of 30.78 billion CNY, net profit of 6.94 billion CNY [2][10]. - **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth rates are projected at 40.63% for 2024, 29.86% for 2025, 23.62% for 2026, and 21.05% for 2027 [2]. - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 63.09% for 2024, 32.94% for 2025, 26.23% for 2026, and 24.38% for 2027 [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to be 6.40 CNY for 2024, 8.50 CNY for 2025, 10.74 CNY for 2026, and 13.35 CNY for 2027 [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 35 in 2024 to 17 in 2027 [2]. - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is projected to decline from 15.32 in 2024 to 6.57 in 2027 [2]. Business Segmentation - **Energy Drinks**: - Revenue of 13.30 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 28.7% [10]. - Expected to maintain a gross margin of 48.3% in 2024, increasing to 52% by 2027 [10]. - **Electrolyte Drinks**: - Revenue of 1.50 billion CNY in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 80% [10]. - Gross margin expected to rise from 29.7% in 2024 to 34% by 2027 [10]. - **Other Beverages**: - Revenue of 1.02 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 22.3% [10]. - Gross margin expected to stabilize at 30% from 2025 onwards [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a current price of 226.67 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage achieved strong revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 15.84 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.33 billion CNY, up 63.1% year-on-year [7]. - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange, and its overseas business is expected to contribute to long-term excess returns [7]. - The growth in the energy drink segment is driven by the 500ml large Dongpeng product, while the electrolyte drink segment is expanding into new consumption scenarios [7]. - The company has successfully optimized its national distribution network, increasing the number of terminal outlets by 500,000 to nearly 4 million [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Dongpeng Beverage's revenue was 15.84 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.33 billion CNY and a cash flow from operations of 20.43 billion CNY, reflecting a 47.0% increase year-on-year [7][16]. - The gross margin improved to 44.8%, with a net profit margin of 21.0%, marking a historical high [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from energy drinks was 13.30 billion CNY, up 28.5% year-on-year, while electrolyte drinks saw a remarkable growth of 280.4% to 1.50 billion CNY [7][10]. - Other beverages contributed 1.02 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 103.2% [7]. Future Projections - Forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 4.42 billion CNY, 5.58 billion CNY, and 6.94 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 8.50 CNY, 10.74 CNY, and 13.35 CNY [2][10]. - The projected PE ratios for the same period are 27, 21, and 17 [2]. Market Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside Guangdong, with revenue from other regions increasing by 49.6% [7]. - The average scale of distributors has improved by 31%, enhancing the overall distribution efficiency [7]. Cost Management - The report highlights a decrease in costs due to lower raw material prices, contributing to improved profitability across all beverage categories [7]. - The gross margin for energy drinks is projected to reach 50% by 2025, while electrolyte drinks are expected to achieve a gross margin of 32% [8][10].