Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "A Shares Gradually Usher in Positive Signals, Gold May Continue to Fluctuate at High Levels — Fixed Income & Macroeconomic Weekly Report (20250414 - 20250420)" [3] - Report Date: April 22, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [1] Group 2: Market Performance in the Past Week (20250414 - 20250420) Stock Market - US stocks declined, while most China - related equity indices rose. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.62%, 1.50%, and 2.66% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index dropped 1.56%, while the Hang Seng Index rose 2.30% and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 1.45% [3] - Most A - share sectors rose, with blue - chips in the Shanghai and Beijing markets rising. The wind All - A Index rose 0.39%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 0.38%, 0.59%, - 0.37%, - 0.52%, 0.75%, and 2.95% respectively. In terms of sector styles, in the Shanghai market, growth stocks fell but blue - chips rose; in the Shenzhen market, both growth and blue - chips fell. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 3.48% [4] - Banking and real estate led the gains. Among 30 CITIC industries, 21 rose and 9 fell. The sectors with larger increases were banking, real estate, coal, comprehensive, and petroleum and petrochemical, with weekly increases of more than 2% [5] Bond Market - Most maturity yields of interest - rate bonds increased. Treasury bond futures rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rising 0.07% compared to April 11, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell 0.75 BP to 1.6493% [6] - Capital prices increased, and the bond market leverage level decreased. As of April 18, 2025, R007 was 1.7116%, up 1.02 BP from April 11, 2025; DR007 was 1.6925%, up 3.91 BP. The central bank's net injection in the past week was 333.8 billion yuan. The bond market leverage level decreased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repo volume decreasing from 6.71 trillion yuan on April 11, 2025, to 6.33 trillion yuan on April 18, 2025 [7] - US Treasury prices rose, and most maturity yields declined. As of April 17, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 14 BP to 4.34%. Most maturity yields declined in the past week, with the 3 - 10 - year maturity yields falling by 14 - 20 BP [8] Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - The US dollar depreciated, and the on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index fell 0.54%. The US dollar exchange rate against the offshore RMB rose 0.31% to 7.3037, and the US dollar exchange rate against the on - shore RMB fell 0.28% to 7.3039 [10] - Gold prices rose. The London gold spot price rose 2.33% to $3305.65 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 2.79% to $3323.10 per ounce, both hitting record highs on April 16 [11] Group 3: Market Outlook Stock Market - A shares are gradually ushering in positive signals. Although the US imposing high tariffs will bring short - term pressure, China's long - term economic trend remains positive. After the release of Q1 economic data and the upcoming release of annual and Q1 reports by listed companies, the risk of lower - than - expected performance is fading. The Politburo meeting at the end of April may introduce incremental policies to boost capital market confidence [12] Bond Market - Bond market yields may remain in low - level fluctuations. Since the Q1 data of consumption, investment, and GDP are good and the central bank has not cut interest rates or reserve requirements, there is no opportunity for yields to break downward, and Treasury bond yields may continue to fluctuate at low levels [12] Commodity Market - Gold may continue to fluctuate at high levels. The US's large - scale tariff increase may have a negative impact on its economy, increasing the probability of a US economic recession. The US dollar and US Treasury yields may continue to decline, and gold is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector has shown a decline of 0.79% in the past week, ranking 28th among 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.59% [2] - The new models launched by Hongmeng Zhixing, including the Wanjie M8 and Xiangjie S9, have received significant pre-orders, indicating strong market interest [3][4] - The release of Horizon's new smart driving chip, Journey 6P, is expected to enhance the capabilities of autonomous driving systems in the automotive industry [5] - Domestic brands are increasing their international presence, with Wanjie entering the Egyptian market and a localization project for Leap Motor in Malaysia [7] - The Chinese government is promoting the integration of vehicle-road-cloud applications to support the development of smart connected vehicles [8] Market Performance - The automotive sector's weekly performance showed a decline of 0.79%, with the best-performing sub-sector being automotive services, which increased by 1.95% [2] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 515,000 units from April 1-13, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% but a month-on-month decrease of 14% [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for vehicle manufacturing include BYD, Great Wall Motors, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Foton Motor [9] - Recommended companies for automotive parts include Huguang Co., Lingyun Co., Yinlun Co., Bertley, Longsheng Technology, Yunyi Electric, Zhejiang Xiantong, Bojun Technology, and Doli Technology [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The HBM4 standard has been officially released, offering significant improvements in bandwidth, efficiency, and design flexibility compared to its predecessor HBM3, which will revolutionize fields such as generative AI, high-performance computing, and high-end graphics cards [4] - The OLED market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing adoption in consumer electronics, with display equipment spending projected to reach $77 billion by 2027, with OLED accounting for 58% of total spending [5] - The U.S. government's restrictions on NVIDIA's H20 chip sales to China may accelerate the iteration of domestic AI chips, increasing demand for local alternatives [6][7] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The SW electronics index fell by 0.64% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points, with sub-sectors showing varied performance [4] Semiconductor Developments - The HBM4 standard supports a 2048-bit interface with a transmission speed of up to 8Gb/s, providing a total bandwidth of up to 2TB/s, and features significant enhancements in power efficiency [4] Display Technology - OLED technology is projected to dominate the display equipment market, with a market size expected to reach $8.3 billion by 2027, driven by larger panel sizes and increased adoption in various devices [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor design companies with low PE/PEG ratios, AIOT SoC chips, analog chips, and key materials for semiconductors, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector has shown a decline of 0.79% in the past week, ranking 28th among 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification. The best-performing sub-sector was automotive services, which increased by 1.95% [2] - The new models launched by Hongmeng Zhixing, including the Wanjie M8 and Xiangjie S9, have received significant pre-orders, indicating strong market interest. The Wanjie M8, priced between 359,800 to 449,800 yuan, achieved over 44,000 orders within 72 hours of its launch [3][4] - The release of the Horizon Journey 6P smart driving chip marks a significant advancement in autonomous driving technology, with a processing power of 560 TOPS and support for 18MP front-view perception [5] Market Performance - The automotive market retail sales from April 1 to 13 reached 515,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% but a month-on-month decrease of 14%. The new energy vehicle market retail sales were 275,000 units, up 15% year-on-year but down 17% month-on-month [3] - The top five companies in terms of stock performance were Teli A, Jianbang Technology, Jiuqi Co., ST Shuguang, and Taide Co., with increases ranging from 13.37% to 31.78%. Conversely, the bottom five companies included Weichai Heavy Machinery and New Spring Co., with declines ranging from 7.27% to 13.96% [3] Strategic Developments - The entry of the Wanjie brand into the Egyptian market and the localization project in Malaysia by Stellantis and Leap Motor indicate a growing international presence for domestic brands [7] - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting the "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" application pilot, which aims to enhance infrastructure development and the industrialization of smart connected vehicles [8] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for vehicle manufacturing include BYD, Great Wall Motors, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Foton Motor. For auto parts, recommended companies include Huguang Co., Lingyun Co., and Yilun Co. [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The HBM4 standard has been officially released, offering significant improvements in bandwidth, efficiency, and design flexibility compared to its predecessor HBM3, which will revolutionize fields such as generative AI, high-performance computing, and high-end graphics cards [4] - The OLED market is expected to grow significantly, with display equipment spending projected to reach $77 billion by 2027, driven by increased adoption in smartphones, tablets, and laptops [5] - The U.S. government's restrictions on NVIDIA's sales of the H20 chip to China may accelerate the iteration of domestic AI chips, increasing demand for local alternatives [6][7] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The SW electronics index fell by 0.64% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points, with sub-sectors showing varied performance [4] Semiconductor Developments - The HBM4 standard supports a 2048-bit interface with a transmission speed of up to 8Gb/s, providing a total bandwidth of up to 2TB/s, and features significant enhancements in power efficiency [4] Display Technology - OLED technology is projected to account for 58% of total display equipment spending by 2027, with China expected to dominate the market, accounting for 84% of display equipment expenditure [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor design companies with low PE/PEG ratios, AIOT SoC chips, analog chips, and key materials for semiconductors, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading integrated circuit foundry with a global presence, providing 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry and technology services. It has established partnerships with major design service providers and has a strong marketing presence in the US, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan [4][16]. - The company's revenue and profit growth are expected to accelerate due to the recovery in the semiconductor industry, driven by demand from artificial intelligence, industrial automation, and smart vehicles. The ownership structure is diverse, with significant interest from major capital funds [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a world-class integrated circuit foundry, headquartered in Shanghai, with a global operational footprint [16]. - It has experienced significant revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.26% from 2017 to 2024, increasing from 21.39 billion yuan to 57.796 billion yuan [20]. 2. Industry Perspective - The semiconductor industry is characterized by high barriers to entry, rapid growth, and a business model that aligns with market demands. The company benefits from economies of scale and technological advantages [5][36]. - The industry is experiencing a resurgence, with a projected global semiconductor market shortage for 40nm and above chips in 2025, which is expected to boost the company's performance [20][23]. 3. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 70.652 billion yuan, 78.639 billion yuan, and 87.584 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 22.24%, 11.30%, and 11.38% respectively. Net profit is expected to grow significantly during the same period [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading integrated circuit foundry with a global presence, providing 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry and technology services. It has established partnerships with major players in the industry, including design services and equipment suppliers, and has marketing offices in the US, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan [4][16] - The company's revenue and profit growth are expected to accelerate due to the recovery in the semiconductor industry, driven by demand from artificial intelligence, industrial automation, and smart vehicles. The ownership structure is diverse, with significant interest from major capital funds [4][5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a world-class leader in wafer manufacturing, with a global operational footprint and partnerships with key industry players [4][16] - Revenue has grown significantly from 21.39 billion yuan in 2017 to 57.80 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.26% [20] 2. Industry Perspective - The semiconductor industry is characterized by high barriers to entry, rapid growth, and a business model that aligns with market demands. The company benefits from economies of scale and technological advantages [5][36] - The industry is experiencing a resurgence, with a projected global semiconductor market shortage for 40nm and above chips in 2025, which may drive demand for the company's products [20][23] 3. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 70.65 billion yuan, 78.64 billion yuan, and 87.58 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.24%, 11.30%, and 11.38% [6][8] - Net profit is projected to reach 5.68 billion yuan, 6.84 billion yuan, and 7.82 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 53.62%, 20.49%, and 14.25% [6][8]

| | | 政策有保障,转型有成效 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中国对美加征 125%关税点评 | | 日期: | 2025年04月18日 | 事件 | | | | 2025年4月11日,国务院关税税则委员会发布公告:对原产于美 | | 分析师: | 张河生 | 国的进口商品加征关税税率由 84%提高至 125%;同时鉴于在目前关 | | Tel: | 021-53686158 | | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | 税水平下,美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性,如果美方后续对中国 | | SAC 编号: S0870523100004 | | 输美商品继续加征关税,中方将不予理会。 | | 相关报告: | | | | 《中国对等反制,降息降准或加速落地》 | 0 | 主要观点 | 1、大幅加征关税后中美经济均可能受负面影响 中国加征 125%关税,美国加征 145%关税。 防究报 | -2025年04月02日 | EN-J- IFA 10 / 10 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / | 《聚焦消费能力、意愿提升,供给创造需 | 由于特朗 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. government has imposed restrictions on Nvidia's sales of H20 chips to China, with tariffs rising to a maximum of 245%. This is expected to drive Chinese companies to increasingly adopt domestic AI chips from Huawei, Baidu, and others [6][8] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with companies like SMIC and Huahong reporting significant revenue growth. The overall semiconductor market is stabilizing, driven by demand from smartphones, personal computers, and emerging markets [9][10] - The report suggests that the technology sector remains optimistic for the year, with a focus on sectors such as PCB, ODM, AIOT, and AIDC for potential investment opportunities [8] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3238.23 points, with a weekly decline of 3.11%. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw declines of 5.13% and 6.73%, respectively. The CSI Artificial Intelligence Index fell by 6.08%, indicating a consistent downward trend across the sector [4] Industry Insights - Nvidia's H20 chip is currently in high demand in the Chinese market, with prices reaching a yearly high. The report notes that a deployment of eight H20 DeepSeek units can cost between 1 million to 1.1 million yuan, with supply delays exceeding four weeks [6] - Companies like Huakong Technology have reported no immediate changes in customer orders despite the uncertainty surrounding the H20 chip, indicating that the industry has prepared for such trade restrictions [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of key minerals for U.S. national security and economic recovery, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions and the impact on supply chains [7] Company Performance - SMIC reported a revenue of 57.8 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28%, while its net profit decreased by 23% to 3.7 billion yuan. The growth is attributed to the overall recovery in the semiconductor market [9] - Key companies in the CPU/GPU segment, such as Cambricon and Haiguang Information, reported revenue growth rates of 66% and 52.4%, respectively, driven by market expansion and increased demand for AI applications [9][10] - The report also highlights the performance of companies in the PCB sector, suggesting that there are opportunities for investment following recent market corrections [8][10]

——2025 年 04 月 08 日 《HBM 产能供给持续紧张，台积电 2nm 工 艺有望于 2025H2 进入量产》 ——2025 年 04 月 07 日 周观点： 美国限制英伟达对华销售 H20 芯片，对华关税最高升至 245% ——先进科技主题 20250407-20250413 [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 | E-mail: | yanfeng@shzq.com | | --- | --- | | SAC 编号: | S0870525030001 | | 分析师: | 李心语 | | SAC 编号: | S0870525040001 | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -11% -2% 7% 15% 24% 33% 42% 51% 59% 04/24 06/24 09/24 11/24 01/25 04/25 电子 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《周观点：科技厂商陆续发布财报及业绩 预告，AI 驱动业绩增长》 ——2025 年 04 月 11 日 《事件点评："对等关税 ...