Workflow
icon
Search documents
ETF周报:上周股票型ETF涨幅中位数达2.4%,AI ETF领涨-20251201
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-01 03:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week (from November 24, 2025, to November 28, 2025), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 2.41%. Among broad - based ETFs, the median return of Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs was the highest at 5.33%. Among sector - based ETFs, the median return of technology ETFs was the highest at 4.59%. Among thematic ETFs, the median return of AI ETFs was the highest at 5.90% [1][12][15]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 40.51 billion yuan, but the total scale increased by 41.354 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, SSE 50 ETF had the largest net subscription of 2.559 billion yuan; among sector - based ETFs, consumer ETFs had the smallest net redemption of 734 million yuan; among thematic ETFs, dividend ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.236 billion yuan [2][26]. - As of last Friday, the top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of listed, non - monetary ETFs were Huaxia, E Fund, and HuaTai - Berry. This week, four ETFs will be issued, namely Huabao CSI 300 Enhanced Strategy ETF, Bank of Communications CSI Smart - Selected Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Technology 50 ETF, Fullgoal Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF, and Ping An SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Component ETF [5][55]. 3. Summary of Each Section ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs was 2.41%. Among broad - based ETFs, Science and Technology Innovation Board, ChiNext, CSI 1000, CSI 500, A500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 ETFs had median returns of 5.33%, 4.61%, 3.76%, 3.11%, 2.15%, 0.46%, and 1.64% respectively. Among cross - border, commodity, monetary, and bond ETFs, the median returns were 3.19%, 2.55%, 0.02%, and - 0.17% respectively [12]. - By sector, the median returns of technology, cyclical, consumer, and large - finance sector ETFs were 4.59%, 2.44%, 1.30%, and 0.56% respectively. By thematic classification, the median returns of AI, chip, and photovoltaic ETFs were 5.90%, 4.94%, and 3.20% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while the median returns of bank, liquor, and dividend ETFs were - 0.53%, - 0.15%, and - 0.15% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [15]. ETF Scale Change and Net Subscription/Redeem - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 3.5943 trillion yuan, 956.8 billion yuan, and 716.6 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and monetary ETFs were relatively small, at 238.4 billion yuan and 180.5 billion yuan respectively. Among broad - based ETFs, SSE 300 and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had relatively large scales [17]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 40.51 billion yuan and a total scale increase of 41.354 billion yuan; monetary ETFs had a net subscription of 3.777 billion yuan and a total scale increase of 3.792 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, SSE 50 ETF had the largest net subscription of 2.559 billion yuan, and ChiNext - type ETFs had the largest net redemption of 7.152 billion yuan. By sector, consumer ETFs had the smallest net redemption of 734 million yuan, and technology ETFs had the largest net redemption of 16.179 billion yuan. By thematic classification, dividend ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.236 billion yuan, and chip ETFs had the largest net redemption of 6.78 billion yuan [26][31]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, in broad - based ETFs, ChiNext - type ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles; by sector, consumer and large - finance ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; by thematic classification, liquor ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [3][43]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - Overall, the short - selling volume of equity ETFs has generally shown an upward trend in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs decreased from 50.223 billion yuan in the previous week to 46.959 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.466 billion shares in the previous week to 2.605 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs in terms of average daily margin trading purchase volume and short - selling volume, Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs and chip ETFs had relatively high average daily margin trading purchase volumes, and CSI 1000 ETFs and A500 ETFs had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [44][50][51]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - fields such as scale - index ETFs, thematic, style, and strategy - index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs; E Fund ranked second, with a relatively high management scale in scale - index ETFs and cross - border ETFs; HuaTai - Berry Fund ranked third, with a relatively high management scale in scale - index ETFs and thematic, style, and strategy - index ETFs [52]. - Last week, two new ETFs were established: Bosera CSI Bank ETF and GF CSI Hong Kong - Stock Connect Internet ETF. This week, four ETFs will be issued: Huabao CSI 300 Enhanced Strategy ETF, Bank of Communications CSI Smart - Selected Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Technology 50 ETF, Fullgoal Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF, and Ping An SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Component ETF [55].
国信证券晨会纪要-20251201
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-01 01:22
Macro and Strategy - The report highlights a significant shift in China's economic growth engine from the secondary industry to the more promising tertiary industry (services) in 2025, with a focus on expanding domestic consumption as the main driver of demand [8][9] - The concept of "anti-involution" is introduced, emphasizing the need to control supply while expanding demand, particularly in the physical product sector, which is crucial for optimizing supply and enhancing new productive forces [8][9] - The interdependence between the service and manufacturing sectors is emphasized, where manufacturing acts as an incubator for productive services, and the growth of services creates a substantial market for manufactured goods [8][10] Industry and Company Insights - The public and environmental protection industry report indicates that the Ministry of Finance has preemptively allocated the first batch of ecological and environmental protection funds for 2026, and there is an analysis of the electricity trading plan in Sichuan for 2026 [3] - The electronic industry report discusses the resonance between AI computing power and terminal innovation, suggesting that PCB (Printed Circuit Board) technology is reshaping high-density connectivity [3] - The agricultural industry report notes a steady increase in beef prices, indicating a positive outlook for the meat and dairy cycle [3] - The financial engineering report highlights the performance of various investment strategies, with a focus on small-cap growth stocks outperforming [3][20] Market Trends - The report provides an overview of major market indices, noting that the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.59 points, with a slight increase of 0.34% [2] - The bond market experienced a significant correction, with short-term bonds remaining stable due to central bank liquidity support, while long-term bonds faced fluctuations due to policy concerns [12][18] - The REITs market is expanding, with the report indicating that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated a pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, which is a key step in diversifying the REITs market [20][24]
美团-W(03690):外卖大战影响核心本地收入利润,预计影响将逐步减弱
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-30 14:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the impact of the fierce competition in the food delivery sector on the company's revenue and profit is expected to gradually diminish. The company achieved a revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, primarily affected by intensified competition in its core local business. Adjusted losses reached 16 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of -17%, indicating a shift from profit to loss [1][8] - The company maintains its long-term goal of achieving a high daily order volume of 100 million and believes that as the industry returns to rationality, the profitability of the food delivery business will return to reasonable levels [1][8] Summary by Sections Overview - The report highlights that the competition in the food delivery market has significantly impacted the company's revenue and profit, with a revenue of 95.5 billion yuan for the quarter. Revenue breakdown shows a year-on-year decline of 17% in instant delivery services, a 1% increase in transaction commissions, and a 6% increase in marketing services [1][8] - The gross margin, sales expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio have all weakened, leading to an adjusted loss of 16 billion yuan, with a continued increase in losses quarter-on-quarter [1][8] Core Local Business - The core local business revenue decreased by 3% year-on-year, resulting in an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan and an operating profit margin of -21.0%, a decline of 42 percentage points year-on-year. The company plans to continue significant investments in membership and promotional budgets in Q4 2025 [2][23] - Instant delivery saw a total order volume growth of 17%, with average losses per order of 2.6 yuan for food delivery and 1.1 yuan for flash purchase. The restaurant delivery order volume grew by approximately 15% [2][24] - The in-store travel and accommodation segment experienced a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year, but the operating profit margin decreased to 29% due to increased advertising costs and subsidies [2][28] New Business - New business revenue grew by 16% year-on-year to 28 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan. The management noted that the user experience in Hong Kong's Keeta turned positive in October, leading to improved user retention and higher average prices [3][30] - The company plans to expand its overseas business by opening three new locations in Gulf countries and piloting in Brazil, although significant losses are expected to increase [3][34] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 360.5 billion yuan, 427 billion yuan, and 509.2 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease in growth expectations. Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are -16 billion yuan, 12.4 billion yuan, and 33.2 billion yuan, indicating a significant downward adjustment [3][35] - The report also provides detailed financial metrics, including adjusted EPS and profit margins, indicating a challenging outlook for the core local business due to competitive pressures [4][38]
农产品研究跟踪系列报告(184):肉牛价格稳步上涨,看好肉奶周期共振反转
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-30 14:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Views - The beef price is expected to continue rising, indicating a potential reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [2][3]. - The pig industry is undergoing a "de-involution," which is likely to support long-term pig prices [1][3]. - The poultry sector is anticipated to benefit from seasonal demand recovery, with limited supply fluctuations [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report highlights a steady increase in beef prices, with the average market price at 66.54 yuan/kg as of November 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 8.83% [2][3]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 4% [1][3]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The report notes that the pig price is supported by industry adjustments, with a current price of 11.19 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 yuan/kg, down 0.45% week-on-week and down 24.13% year-on-year [1][3]. 2.2 Poultry - The price of broiler chickens is 7.19 yuan/kg, up 0.56% week-on-week, while chick prices are slightly down at 3.47 yuan/each [1][3]. - The report indicates that the supply of yellow chickens remains stable, with prices showing slight increases [1][3]. 2.3 Beef - The beef market is experiencing a new round of price increases, with expectations for a bullish cycle in 2025 [2][3]. - The average price of raw milk is 3.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year decrease of 3% [2][3]. 2.4 Feed - The report emphasizes that the feed industry is benefiting from deeper industrialization and clearer division of labor, with leading companies expected to gain competitive advantages [3][4]. 2.5 Other Commodities - Soybean meal prices are stable, with a current price of 3100 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.98% [2][3]. - Corn prices are also on a mild upward trend, currently at 2254 yuan/ton, up 1.21% week-on-week [2][3]. 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Agriculture are rated as "Outperform" with respective prices of 4.36 yuan and 1.34 yuan [4]. - Mu Yuan Co. is highlighted with a projected EPS of 3.57 yuan for 2025, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [4].
公用环保202511第4期:1-10月全国电力市场交易电量同比增长7.9%,可控核聚变行业资本开支加速
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-30 13:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights a 7.9% year-on-year increase in national electricity market trading volume from January to October 2025, with significant growth in green electricity trading [2][15]. - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is experiencing accelerated capital expenditure, with a notable increase in project bidding activity [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policies supporting renewable energy development, predicting stable profitability for new energy generation [4][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.64%, while the public utility and environmental indices increased by 0.89% and 1.59%, respectively [1][14]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 1.60%, while hydropower and new energy generation saw smaller gains [1][24]. Important Events - In October 2025, the national electricity market trading volume reached 563.8 billion kWh, marking a 15.6% increase year-on-year [2][15]. - The cumulative trading volume for the first ten months of 2025 was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of total electricity consumption, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous year [2][15]. Specialized Research - The report details 35 public bidding projects in the controlled nuclear fusion sector from October to November 2025, with a total estimated contract value of 2.6 billion yuan [3][17]. - The bidding activity has significantly accelerated compared to previous months, indicating a growing interest and investment in this area [3][17]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading new energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][22]. - The report also suggests focusing on water and waste incineration sectors, which are entering a mature phase with improved cash flow [4][22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for various companies, all maintaining an "Outperform" rating, including Huadian International, Longyuan Power, and China Nuclear Power [8][22].
锂电产业链双周评(11月第3期):工信部座谈指出规范行业竞争,国内企业持续斩获全球储能订单
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-30 13:57
证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 锂电产业链双周评(11月第3期) 工信部座谈指出规范行业竞争,国内企业持续斩获全球储能订单 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 · 锂电池 投资评级:优于大市(维持) 证券分析师:王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师:徐文辉 021-60375426 xuwenhui@guosen.com.cn S0980524030001 证券分析师:李全 021-60375434 liquan2@guosen.com.cn S0980524070002 联系人:王喆萱 wangzhexuan@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 投资建议 【行业动态】 【新能源车产业链数据】 【锂电材料及锂电池价格】 • 锂盐价格走高,电芯报价上行。本周末碳酸锂价格为9.38万元/吨,较两周前上涨0.86万元/吨。相较两周前,三元正极、磷酸铁锂正极、六氟磷酸锂、电解液、湿法隔膜报价均上涨,负 极报价稳定。本周方形三元动力电芯/铁锂动力电芯/储能用100Ah电芯/储能用2 ...
转债市场周报:正股高波品种仍为优选-20251130
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-30 13:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the call between the Chinese and US leaders, the market risk appetite has recovered. The stock market oscillated upward last week, with the technology and consumer sectors performing well, and the dividend sector slightly adjusting. The bond market was weak due to strong stock - market sentiment and relevant rumors, with the yield rising significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, up 2.46bp from the previous week. In the convertible bond market, half of the individual convertible bonds rose last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.27% for the whole week, the median price dropped 0.02%, the calculated arithmetic average parity increased 3.77%, and the whole - market conversion premium rate decreased 4.65% compared with the previous week [1][7][8]. - Looking forward, with the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut rising again and important meetings in December, along with the continuous progress of the industrial process and the upward revision of corporate profit expectations, the market still has room for further upward movement. For convertible bonds, at the current valuation level, the bond - bottom protection of debt - biased convertible bonds is limited. In the short term, it is still recommended to focus on high - volatility underlying - stock varieties in balanced convertible bonds or low - premium and non - callable equity - biased individual bonds. In terms of direction, pay attention to growth sectors such as AI applications, energy storage, semiconductor equipment and materials, as well as sectors such as photovoltaics and refining that are expected to benefit from policy support [2][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends Stock Market - Last week, the stock market oscillated upward. The technology and consumer sectors performed well, and the dividend sector slightly adjusted. The Shenwan primary industries showed that most industries rose, with communication (8.70%), electronics (6.05%), and others leading in gains, while petroleum and petrochemicals (- 0.73%), banks (- 0.59%), and others lagging [7][8]. - The daily performance of the A - share market last week was as follows: on Monday, the three major A - share indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.31%, and the total market turnover was 1.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 243.3 billion yuan from the previous day. On Tuesday, the three major indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.56%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.77%, and the total market turnover was 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 85.8 billion yuan from the previous day. On Wednesday, the three major indexes showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.14%, and the total market turnover was 1.80 trillion yuan, a decrease of 29 billion yuan from the previous day. On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.44%, and the total market turnover was 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 74 billion yuan from the previous day. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.7%, and the total market turnover was 1.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 125.7 billion yuan from the previous day [7]. Bond Market - Last week, affected by strong stock - market sentiment and relevant rumors such as the new fund - sales regulations, the central bank's bond - buying scale, and public - fund redemptions, the bond market was weak, and the yield rose significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, up 2.46bp from the previous week [1][7][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Last week, half of the individual convertible bonds rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.27% for the whole week, the median price dropped 0.02%, the calculated arithmetic average parity increased 3.77%, and the whole - market conversion premium rate decreased 4.65% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) changed by - 2.04%, - 1.31%, and - 2.39% respectively, and were at the 85%, 96%, and 75% quantiles since 2023 [8]. - Most industries in the convertible bond market rose last week. Steel (+2.53%), building materials (+1.27%), machinery and equipment (+1.00%), and electronics (+0.97%) led the gains, while social services (- 3.45%), non - bank finance (- 2.00%), petroleum and petrochemicals (- 1.35%), and coal (- 1.16%) lagged [11][12]. - At the individual - bond level, Dazhong (lithium mine), Chun 23 (consumer electronics), Tianyuan (landfill leachate treatment), Haohan (network intelligence), and Liyang (Ali chip concept) convertible bonds led the gains; Bo 23 (non - ferrous metals), Wei 24 (solid - waste treatment & strong - redemption announced), Xinhua (lithium - battery concept), Yanggu (rubber additives), and Huicheng (waste - catalyst treatment) convertible bonds led the losses [1][13]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 282.476 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume was 56.495 billion yuan, showing a decline compared with the previous week [16]. Valuation Overview - As of last Friday (2025/11/28), in equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 47.76%, 33.06%, 27.88%, 17.8%, 13.9%, and 11.64% respectively, at the 98%/97%, 90%/87%, 94%/95%, 83%/74%, 86%/83%, and 94%/92% quantiles since 2010/2021. In debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 4.01%, at the 1%/5% quantiles since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 42.86%, at the 86%/86% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 1.51%, at the 82%/83% quantiles since 2010/2021 [19]. Primary - Market Tracking - Last week (2025/11/24 - 2025/11/28), no convertible bonds were announced for issuance, and Zhuomei Convertible Bonds were listed. The underlying stock is Xingyuan Zhuomei, which belongs to the automotive industry. As of November 28, its market value was 5.317 billion yuan. The company is a professional enterprise in designing and manufacturing large - and medium - sized aluminum and magnesium alloy die - casting molds. The issued convertible - bond scale is 450 million yuan, with a credit rating of A+, and it was listed on November 24. After deducting the issuance fees, the funds are all to be invested in the project of an annual output of 3 million sets of high - strength large - sized magnesium alloy precision - formed parts for automobiles [26]. - As of the announcements on November 28, no convertible bonds are announced for issuance or listing in the next week (2025/12/1 - 2025/12/5). Last week, 1 company (Lianrui New Materials) was approved for registration, 1 company (Shangsheng Electronics) passed the listing committee review, 1 company (Aike Technology) was accepted by the exchange, 1 company (Songyuan Safety) passed the shareholders' meeting, and 1 company (Shenling Environment) had a board - of - directors' plan. As of now, there are 97 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 145.89 billion yuan, including 7 that have been approved for registration with a total scale of 4.72 billion yuan and 6 that have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 7.46 billion yuan [27].
公募REITs周报(第44期):EITs扩围在即,市场蓄势待发-20251130
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-30 13:32
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - This week, the REITs index fell 0.1%. The average weekly price changes of equity - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 0.1% and - 0.4% respectively. In terms of the weekly price changes of major indices, CSI 300 > CSI REITs > CSI Aggregate Bond > CSI Convertible Bond Index [1]. - As of November 28, 2025, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 18BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 254BP [1]. - The CSRC launched the pilot of commercial real - estate REITs, which is a key step for China's public REITs market to expand from infrastructure and consumption fields to all categories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of the CSI REITs index was 809.07 points, with a weekly price change of - 0.1%. It outperformed the CSI Aggregate Bond Index (- 0.2%) and the CSI Convertible Bond Index (- 0.3%), but underperformed the CSI 300 Index (+ 1.6%). Year - to - date, the price change rankings of major indices were: CSI Convertible Bond (+ 16.2%) > CSI 300 (+ 15.0%) > CSI REITs (+ 2.5%) > CSI Aggregate Bond (+ 0.6%) [2][6]. - In the past year, the return rate of the CSI REITs index was 5.7% with a volatility of 7.5%. Its return was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index, but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index; the volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index, but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index [2]. - As of November 28, the total market value of REITs was 219.9 billion yuan, an increase of 100 million yuan from last week; the average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.50%, up 0.03 percentage points from the previous week [2][8]. 3.2 Performance by REIT Types - In terms of different project attributes, the average weekly price changes of equity - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 0.1% and - 0.4% respectively. Among different project types, REITs showed differentiated price changes. The top three project types with the largest average price increases were new - type (1.8%), affordable housing (0.9%), and municipal facilities (0.4%) [1][3][14]. - The top three REITs in weekly price increase were CICC Xiamen Anju REIT (+ 3.65%), Huaxia Capital First - Outlets REIT (+ 2.67%), and Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT (+ 2.52%) [3][18]. - Among different project types, affordable rental housing REITs had the highest daily turnover rate during the period, with an average daily turnover rate of 1.0%; transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest trading volume share this week, accounting for 24.1% of the total REIT trading volume [3][19][20]. - In terms of the capital flow of different REIT products this week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were Huaxia Capital China Resources Commercial REIT (20 million yuan), CICC In - City Mall REIT (8.44 million yuan), and Huatai - PINEBRIDGE Jiangsu Expressway REIT (5.22 million yuan) [3][20][21]. 3.3 Primary Market Issuance - From the beginning of the year to November 28, 2025, there were 2 REIT products in the exchange at the stage of acceptance, 2 at the stage of application, 2 at the inquiry stage, 5 at the feedback stage, 6 products that had passed the review and were waiting to be listed, and 14 first - issued products that had passed the review and were listed [22]. 3.4 Valuation Tracking - REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. As of November 28, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 6.32%. From the perspective of equity, the relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO were used to judge the valuation of REITs [24]. - As of November 28, 2025, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 18BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 254BP [1][27]. 3.5 Industry News - The CSRC launched the pilot of commercial real - estate REITs on November 28, aiming to enrich capital market investment and financing tools, support the construction of a new real - estate development model, and enhance the effectiveness of the multi - level capital market in serving the real economy [29]. - The first public REIT in Shaanxi Province, "Ping An Xi'an High - tech Industrial Park Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund", was officially applied for. Its underlying assets are 13 buildings in the Software New City of Xi'an High - tech Zone, with a total construction area of 325,000 square meters and an estimated net value of 1.36 billion yuan [4][35]. - The first tunnel infrastructure public REIT, "Orient Securities Tunnel Co., Ltd. Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Expressway Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund", was officially applied for. Its underlying asset is the "Qianjiang Tunnel" connecting Hangzhou and Haining, Jiaxing [4][35].
科技主导反弹周:估值周观察(11月第5期)
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-30 13:21
Group 1 - The overseas markets experienced a rebound during the week of November 24-28, 2025, with major indices in the US rising over 3%, led by the Nasdaq 100 which increased by 4.93% [2][7] - In the Eurozone, Germany showed strong performance, while Asian markets also saw moderate gains, with the Hang Seng Tech and Nikkei 225 both rising over 3% [2][7] - The valuation expansion was noted across major US indices, with PE ratios increasing by more than 1x, and the Nasdaq, Nikkei 225, Korean Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech seeing PE expansions exceeding 2x [2][7] Group 2 - A-shares saw a broad-based rebound during the same week, with the National Index 2000 rising by 4.50% and the CSI 1000 by 3.77%, indicating strong performance in smaller-cap stocks [2][27] - The overall valuation of A-shares experienced mild expansion, with only the large-cap value index showing a slight decline of 0.21% [2][27] - The PE ratio of the CSI 2000 significantly recovered, expanding by 7.27x, while small-cap growth stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks [2][27] Group 3 - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector showed significant rebounds, with electronics rising by 6.05% and communications by 8.7%, indicating strong investor interest [2][50] - The valuation of the TMT sector expanded notably, with electronics, communications, and computers showing PE expansions of 3.6x, 3.58x, and 2.56x respectively [2][50] - The downstream consumer sectors, particularly social services, beauty care, and food and beverage, exhibited favorable valuation metrics, with their valuation percentiles remaining below 53% [2][50] Group 4 - Emerging industries saw a comprehensive increase, with optical communication performing exceptionally well, and sectors like IDC, quantum communication, and 5G leading the gains [2][50] - The semiconductor industry also showed significant PE expansions, with IDC and integrated circuits leading the way [2][50] - Popular concepts in the market included optical modules, optical chips, and communication devices, reflecting strong growth potential in these areas [2][50]
转债市场周报:a股高波品种仍为优选-20251130
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-30 12:55
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the Fed's increasing expectation of interest rate cuts and the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market risk appetite has recovered. The stock market oscillated upwards last week, with the technology sector that had adjusted recently performing well, and the consumer sector also showing good performance after the six - ministry plan was issued. The bond market was weak, and the yield increased significantly. In the convertible bond market, half of the individual convertible bonds closed up, the CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.27% for the whole week, and the arithmetic average parity increased 3.77%. The overall conversion premium rate decreased 4.65% compared with the previous week [1][7][8]. - Looking forward, with the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts rising again and important meetings in December, along with the continuous advancement of the industrial process and the upward revision of corporate profit expectations, the market still has room to rise further. For convertible bonds, at the current valuation level, the bond - bottom protection of debt - biased convertible bonds is limited. In the short term, it is still recommended to focus on high - volatility underlying stock varieties in balanced convertible bonds or low - premium and non - callable equity - biased individual bonds. In terms of direction, pay attention to growth sectors such as AI applications, energy storage, semiconductor equipment and materials, as well as sectors such as photovoltaics and refining that are expected to benefit from policy support [2][18]. Summary by Directory Market Trends Stock Market - In the context of the Fed's increasing expectation of interest rate cuts and the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market risk appetite recovered last week, and the stock market oscillated upwards. The technology and consumer sectors performed well, while the dividend sector had a slight adjustment. The A - share market showed different trends on each trading day, with changes in trading volume and active sectors [7]. - Most Shenwan primary industries closed up last week. The communication, electronics, comprehensive, media, and light manufacturing sectors had the highest increases, while the petroleum and petrochemical, banking, coal, and transportation sectors performed poorly [8]. Bond Market - Last week, affected by the strong sentiment in the stock market and relevant rumors such as the new fund sales regulations, the central bank's bond - buying scale, and public fund redemptions, the bond market was weak, and the yield increased significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, up 2.46bp from the previous week [1][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Half of the individual convertible bonds closed up last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.27% for the whole week, the price median dropped 0.02%, the arithmetic average parity increased 3.77%, and the overall conversion premium rate decreased 4.65% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) changed by - 2.04%, - 1.31%, and - 2.39% respectively, and were at the 85%, 96%, and 75% quantiles since 2023 [8]. - Most industries in the convertible bond market closed up last week. The steel, building materials, machinery, and electronics sectors performed well, while the social services, non - bank finance, petroleum and petrochemical, and coal sectors performed poorly [11][12]. - At the individual bond level, the convertible bonds of Dazhong (lithium mine), Chun 23 (consumer electronics), Tianyuan (landfill leachate treatment), Haohan (network intelligence), and Liyang (Ali chip concept) had the highest increases, while those of Bo 23 (non - ferrous metals), Wei 24 (solid waste treatment & call announced), Xinhua (lithium battery concept), Yanggu (rubber additives), and Huicheng (waste catalyst treatment) had the highest decreases [13]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 282.476 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 56.495 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [16]. Valuation Overview - As of last Friday (2025/11/28), in equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 47.76%, 33.06%, 27.88%, 17.8%, 13.9%, and 11.64% respectively, and were at the 98%/97%, 90%/87%, 94%/95%, 83%/74%, 86%/83%, and 94%/92% quantiles since 2010/2021 [19]. - In debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 4.01%, at the 1%/5% quantiles since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 42.86%, at the 86%/86% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 1.51%, at the 82%/83% quantiles since 2010/2021 [19]. Primary Market Tracking - No convertible bonds were announced for issuance last week (2025/11/24 - 2025/11/28), and Zhuomei Convertible Bond was listed. The underlying stock is Xingyuan Zhuomei, which belongs to the automobile industry, with a market value of 5.317 billion yuan as of November 28. The company is a professional enterprise in designing and manufacturing large - and medium - sized aluminum and magnesium alloy die - casting molds. The scale of the convertible bond issued this time is 450 million yuan, with a credit rating of A +, and it was listed on November 24. After deducting the issuance expenses, the funds are to be fully invested in the project of an annual output of 3 million sets of high - strength large - sized magnesium alloy precision - formed parts for automobiles [26]. - As of the announcements on November 28, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the coming week (2025/12/1 - 2025/12/5). Last week, one company (Lianrui New Materials) was approved for registration, one company (Shangsheng Electronics) passed the listing committee review, one company (Aike Technology) was accepted by the exchange, one company (Songyuan Safety) passed the shareholders' meeting, and one company (Shenling Environment) had a board of directors' plan. As of now, there are 97 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 145.89 billion yuan, including 7 that have been approved for registration with a total scale of 4.72 billion yuan and 6 that have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 7.46 billion yuan [27].