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亚翔集成(603929):重大项目有序衔接,后续增长动能明确
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-25 07:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5][3][23] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to the timing of major project confirmations, but there is clear growth momentum ahead [8][3] - The company has completed revenue recognition for the UMC Singapore project, and the VSMC project is transitioning smoothly [10][3] - The semiconductor industry is shifting supply chains to Southeast Asia due to geopolitical factors, with Singapore emerging as a preferred location for semiconductor companies [3][23] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41%, and a net profit of 161 million yuan, down 32% [8][2] - The company's gross margin improved to 16.9%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin increased to 9.56%, up 1.2 percentage points [2][12] - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was a net inflow of 880 million yuan, with a cash collection ratio of 145% [18][22] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 477 million yuan, 816 million yuan, and 713 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.24 yuan, 3.83 yuan, and 3.34 yuan [3][4][23] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is 4.57 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 15.1% compared to 2024 [4][3] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend totaling 213 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 133%, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [22][3]
国信证券晨会纪要-20250725
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-25 01:11
Company Analysis - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) reported a further improvement in same-store sales, with a double-digit growth in the pricing of gold jewelry. The overall retail value decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but improved from a 11.6% decline in the previous quarter. The retail value in mainland China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) fell by 3.3%, while the markets in Hong Kong, Macau, and others grew by 7.8% [15][16] - The same-store sales in mainland China decreased by 3.3%, a reduction of 9.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. In Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets, same-store sales increased by 2.2%, showing significant improvement from a 22.5% decline in the previous quarter. The sales of high-margin priced products, particularly gold, rose by 20.8% in mainland China [15][16] - Chow Tai Fook continues to optimize its store structure and enhance single-store efficiency, closing 307 underperforming stores during the quarter. The company also issued HKD 8.8 billion in convertible bonds to support business development, store upgrades, and strategic growth in domestic and international markets [16] Industry Analysis - Minstar (833394.BJ) reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 27.9% for the first half of 2025, reaching CNY 237 million, with a net profit of CNY 63 million, up 42.3% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was CNY 122 million, a 28.4% increase year-on-year and a 6.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [15][17] - The demand for aramid paper continues to grow, driven by industries such as new energy and AI data centers. The company's core product, aramid paper, generated CNY 227 million in revenue, accounting for 95.45% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 41.91% [17][18] - The company has successfully launched a new production line for aramid paper, increasing its theoretical capacity from 3,000 tons to 4,500 tons. The new line is expected to enhance cost advantages and market share [18]
短期纯债基金二季报分析:业绩回暖驱动,数量规模双升
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-24 13:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term pure bond funds in Q2 2025 showed an increase in both quantity and scale driven by performance recovery. The average net value growth rate of short - term pure bonds in Q2 2025 was 0.66%, with the growth rate recovering compared to the previous quarter. The two funds with the highest returns in Q2 both had heavy positions in financial bonds and corporate bonds, and their durations at the end of Q2 decreased quarter - on - quarter, achieving net value returns of 1.36% and 1.30% respectively [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 Q2 Short - term Pure Bond Fund Basic Situation - **Number of Bond Funds**: As of the end of Q2 2025, there were 363 short - term pure bond funds issued, accounting for 2.80% of the entire fund market. In Q2, 17 short - term pure bond funds were issued, showing a recovery compared to the same period last year [1][9]. - **Bond Fund Scale**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets and net assets of short - term pure bond funds that had disclosed semi - annual reports were 12,345 billion yuan and 10,770 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 2,002 billion yuan and 1,536 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter. The average total assets and net assets were 37 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 6.2 billion yuan and 4.7 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter [1][10]. - **Leverage Ratio**: At the end of Q2 2025, the average leverage ratio of short - term pure bond funds under the overall method was 1.15, an increase of 0.04 from the end of the previous quarter. Under the average method, it was also 1.15, an increase of 0.03 from the end of the previous quarter [1][14]. - **Net Value Growth Rate**: In Q2 2025, the single - quarter average net value growth rate of short - term pure bonds was 0.66%, with the growth rate recovering compared to the previous quarter. Among the 336 funds that disclosed performance, 335 had positive net value growth rates, accounting for 99.7%, and the proportion increased compared to the previous quarter. The net value growth rates in Q2 were mainly distributed between [0,1) and [1,2), accounting for 92.9% and 6.5% respectively [1][20]. 2025 Q2 Short - term Pure Bond Fund Asset Allocation - **Large - scale Asset Allocation**: At the end of Q2 2025, bond assets accounted for the highest proportion of 97.9%, an increase of 0.5% from the previous quarter; repurchase assets accounted for 0.9%, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous quarter; bank deposits and other assets accounted for 0.7% and 0.5% of total assets respectively, with the proportions changing by 0.0% and - 0.1% respectively compared to the previous quarter [2][26]. - **Bond Type Allocation**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the main bond types held by short - term pure bond funds were interest - rate bonds, financial bonds (excluding policy - related financial bonds), and corporate - issued bonds, accounting for 14.0%, 19.2%, and 62.8% of the total bond assets respectively. The proportions of inter - bank certificates of deposit, asset - backed securities, and other bonds in total assets were 3.3%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively. Compared with the end of the previous quarter, the proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and corporate - issued bonds in bond assets changed by 1.0%, 3.8%, and - 4.8% respectively, and the proportion of inter - bank certificates of deposit changed by - 0.1% [2][29]. 2025 Q2 Analysis of Outstanding Funds - **Fund A with the Highest Net Value Return**: Fund A's duration and leverage decreased quarter - on - quarter in Q2 2025. Its net value growth rate in Q2 was 1.36%. It mainly allocated corporate bonds, financial bonds, and policy - related financial bonds, with a small amount of treasury bonds. Its duration decreased from 3.5 in the previous quarter to 2.5 at the end of Q2, and its leverage ratio decreased from 133.2% at the end of the previous quarter to 124.1% [38]. - **Fund B with the Second - highest Net Value Return**: Fund B's duration decreased quarter - on - quarter in Q2 2025, but it still adopted a relatively aggressive leverage strategy. Its net value growth rate in Q2 was 1.30%. It mainly allocated financial bonds, corporate bonds, policy - related financial bonds, and a small amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit, and slightly increased its allocation of financial bonds to 57.1%. Its leverage ratio increased slightly from 137.7% at the end of the previous quarter to 139.9% at the end of Q2 [46].
宁波银行(002142):2025 年半年度快报点评:业绩增速回升,资产质量稳定
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-24 13:37
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 shows stable growth, with a revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.8 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 374% as of the end of Q2 2025, indicating a solid financial position [2] - The company maintains a high provision coverage ratio, which supports stable future net profit growth [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 37.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, and a net profit of 14.8 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) for H1 2025 is 13.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] Asset Quality - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets reached 3.47 trillion yuan, growing by 11.0% year-to-date and 14.4% year-on-year [1] - The non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with the provision coverage ratio at 374%, reflecting a strong asset quality [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 29.2 billion yuan, 31.6 billion yuan, and 34.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 7.6%, 8.4%, and 7.8% [3][4] - The estimated diluted EPS for 2025 is 4.27 yuan, with a current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.4x and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.78x [3][4]
金融工程日报:指低开高走站上3600点,海南概念领涨、多板块轮番拉升-20250724
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-24 13:36
The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include their construction processes, formulas, evaluations, or backtesting results. The documents primarily focus on market performance, sector analysis, ETF premiums/discounts, institutional activities, and other market-related data. There are no references to quantitative models or factors in the context of financial engineering or quantitative investment strategies.
短期纯债基金二季报分析:绩回暖驱动,数量规模双升
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-24 11:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report analyzes the second - quarter report of short - term pure bond funds, indicating that the performance recovery has driven an increase in both the number and scale of these funds. The bond market showed certain fluctuations in the second quarter, and the economic fundamentals continued to grow steadily. The two funds with the highest returns both heavily invested in financial bonds and corporate bonds, and their durations decreased quarter - on - quarter [1][53]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 Q2 Short - term Pure Bond Fund Basic Situation - **Number of Bond Funds**: As of the end of Q2 2025, there were 363 short - term pure bond funds issued, accounting for 2.80% of the entire fund market. 17 new short - term pure bond funds were issued in Q2, showing a recovery compared to the same period last year [1][9]. - **Bond Fund Scale**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets and net assets of short - term pure bond funds that had disclosed semi - annual reports were 1,234.5 billion yuan and 1,077 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 200.2 billion yuan and 153.6 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter. The average total assets and net assets were 37 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 6.2 billion yuan and 4.7 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter [1][10]. - **Leverage Ratio**: At the end of Q2 2025, the average leverage ratio of short - term pure bond funds was 1.15 under the overall method and the average method, an increase of 0.04 and 0.03 respectively from the end of the previous quarter [1][14]. - **Net Value Growth Rate**: In Q2 2025, the single - quarter average net value growth rate of short - term pure bonds was 0.66%, showing a recovery compared to the previous quarter. Among the 336 funds that disclosed performance, 335 had positive net value growth rates, accounting for 99.7% [17][20]. 2025 Q2 Short - term Pure Bond Fund Asset Allocation - **Large - scale Asset Allocation**: At the end of Q2 2025, bond assets accounted for 97.9% of the total assets, an increase of 0.5% from the previous quarter; buy - back assets accounted for 0.9%, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous quarter; bank deposits and other assets accounted for 0.7% and 0.5% respectively, with changes of 0.0% and - 0.1% respectively from the previous quarter [2][26]. - **Bond Type Allocation**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the main bond types held by short - term pure bond funds were interest - rate bonds, financial bonds (excluding policy - based financial bonds), and corporate - issued bonds, accounting for 14.0%, 19.2%, and 62.8% of the total bond assets respectively. Compared with the end of the previous quarter, the proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and corporate - issued bonds in bond assets changed by 1.0%, 3.8%, and - 4.8% respectively [2][29]. 2025 Q2 Analysis of High - performing Funds - **Fund A (First in Net Value Return)**: In Q2 2025, Fund A's net value growth rate was 1.36%. It mainly invested in corporate bonds, financial bonds, and policy - based financial bonds, with a small amount of treasury bonds. Its duration decreased from 3.5 in the previous quarter to 2.5, and its leverage ratio decreased from 133.2% at the end of the previous quarter to 124.1% [38]. - **Fund B (Second in Net Value Return)**: In Q2 2025, Fund B's net value growth rate was 1.30%. It mainly invested in financial bonds, corporate bonds, policy - based financial bonds, and a small amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit, and slightly increased its investment in financial bonds to 57.1%. Its duration decreased from 3.6 in the previous quarter to 3.0, and its leverage ratio increased slightly from 137.7% at the end of the previous quarter to 139.9% [46].
利率变局中的攻守之道:浮息债全解
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-24 09:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance scale of floating - rate bonds in China has shown a fluctuating upward trend in the past 30 years, with significant shrinkage in the past three years. The benchmark interest rate has changed from single to diverse, and the dominant bond varieties have alternated between policy - bank bonds and asset - backed securities. The issuance term has evolved from high concentration to dispersion and then back to concentration [29][35][45]. - The valuation of floating - rate bonds is based on the discounted cash flow method (DCF). The key difficulties lie in predicting future coupon payments and selecting the discount rate. The change in the benchmark interest rate and the term spread △y can affect the value of floating - rate bonds [106][109][144]. - Floating - rate bonds are more resistant to decline in a bear market but weaker in a bull market compared to fixed - rate bonds. The absolute value change of floating - rate bonds is complex, and its value is affected by the relative changes of the benchmark interest rate and the market interest rate [161][168][197]. - Based on the analysis of the cash - flow simulation of floating - rate bonds, the market implies that the 1 - year LPR will decline steadily in the next two years and then rise. The floating - rate bonds of China Development Bank imply a stronger expectation of interest - rate cuts than those of Agricultural Development Bank [319][339]. - Considering the expected interest - rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [353][356]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Floating - Rate Bond Historical Changes and Current Situation - **Historical Changes** - **Issuance Scale**: It has experienced three rounds of expansion and adjustment in the past 30 years. The first round (1995 - 2002) was an exploration period with the first breakthrough to the 10 - billion - level. The second round (2003 - 2013) was a consolidation period with the scale reaching 50 - billion - level. The third round (2014 - 2024) was a mature and fluctuating period with the peak exceeding 60 - billion - level, but it has shrunk significantly in the past three years [35][37]. - **Benchmark Interest Rate**: It has changed from a single 1 - year fixed - deposit interest rate to a diverse range, including 7 - day repo rate average, LIBOR, SHIBOR, LPR, etc. Currently, LPR and DR series have become the mainstream [41][45][48]. - **Bond Varieties**: Policy - bank bonds and asset - backed securities have alternately dominated. Policy - bank bonds were dominant in the early stage, and asset - backed securities took the lead in 2014. Since 2022, policy - bank bonds have regained the dominant position [50][60][61]. - **Issuance Term**: It has evolved from high concentration in the 7 - 10 - year term to dispersion and then back to concentration in the 2 - 3 - year term [65][71][72]. - **Current Situation** - As of the end of 2024, the stock of floating - rate bonds in China was 50.08 billion yuan, accounting for 0.3% of the total bond balance. The top three in terms of bond varieties are policy - bank bonds, ABS, and non - financial corporate credit bonds. The top three in terms of benchmark interest rates are 1 - year LPR, DR007, and 5 - year LPR [78]. 2. Floating - Rate Bond Valuation Method - **Valuation Principle and Theoretical Calculation Method**: It is based on the DCF method. The key is to predict future coupon payments and select the discount rate. The China Foreign Exchange Trade System has a specific valuation formula for non - option - embedded and non - early - repayment floating - rate bonds. However, the simple model does not reflect the market's expectation of future interest rates [106][112][116]. - **Analysis of Factors Affecting Investment Value**: The change in the benchmark interest rate can affect the value of floating - rate bonds. Generally, an increase in the benchmark interest rate leads to a decline in bond value, and vice versa. The impact is greater when the valuation date is farther from the reset date. The term spread △y also affects the bond value, and its impact needs to be considered in combination with the benchmark interest rate [120][139][144]. 3. Relative Value Assessment of Floating - Rate Bonds (Based on Historical Backtracking) - Floating - rate bonds are more resistant to decline in a bear market but weaker in a bull market compared to fixed - rate bonds. In a rising - interest - rate environment, the price decline of floating - rate bonds is smaller than that of fixed - rate bonds. In a falling - interest - rate environment, the performance of fixed - rate bonds is better [161][162][180]. 4. Absolute Value Assessment of Floating - Rate Bonds (Based on Historical Backtracking) - The absolute value change of floating - rate bonds is complex. By observing the historical trends of two floating - rate bonds with DR007 as the benchmark interest rate, it is found that when the benchmark interest rate and the market interest rate change in opposite directions, the value change direction of floating - rate bonds is clear; when they move in the same direction, the value change direction cannot be determined; when they are flat, the value center is stable [197][269][271]. 5. Future Interest - Rate Cut Path Implied by Current Floating - Rate Bonds - By simulating the cash flows of three actively traded floating - rate bonds of Agricultural Development Bank, it is inferred that the 1 - year LPR will decline steadily in the next two years and then rise. The floating - rate bonds of China Development Bank imply a stronger expectation of interest - rate cuts and a faster interest - rate cut speed than those of Agricultural Development Bank [319][339]. 6. Consideration of Floating - Rate Bond Investment Value - Considering the expected interest - rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds. For DR007 floating - rate bonds, the decline of DR007 may compress the coupon income, and different interest - rate cut scenarios will affect the capital gains of floating - rate bonds [353][356][362].
民士达(833394):二季度净利同环比提升,芳纶纸需求持续增长
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-24 07:10
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the second quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching 237 million yuan (up 27.9% year-on-year) and net profit of 63 million yuan (up 42.3% year-on-year) [1][8]. - The growth in performance is attributed to the rising demand for aramid paper driven by industries such as new energy and AI data centers, improved capacity utilization, and an increase in high-value-added products [1][10]. - The company has enhanced its core competitiveness in aramid paper, with revenue from this segment reaching 227 million yuan (up 22.76% year-on-year), accounting for 95.45% of total revenue [1][10]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 41.0% (up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year) and a net margin of 25.9% [1][8]. - The operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 44 million yuan (up 86.7% year-on-year) [1][8]. - The company’s new production project for 1,500 tons of new functional aramid paper is expected to enhance production capacity from 3,000 tons to 4,500 tons, further improving cost efficiency [2][14]. Market Expansion and Innovation - The company is actively expanding its global market presence, with overseas revenue reaching 52 million yuan (up 10.71% year-on-year), representing 21.79% of total revenue [2][14]. - The company has secured 7 new authorized invention patents, reinforcing its technological barriers and market position [2][14].
周大福(01929):同店销售进一步改善向好,季内定价黄金首饰双位数增长
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-24 06:56
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][5] Core Views - The company reported a 1.9% year-on-year decline in overall retail value for the period from April to June 2025, showing improvement compared to a 11.6% decline in the previous quarter [4][6] - In the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan), retail value decreased by 3.3%, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a 7.8% increase [4][6] - Same-store sales in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) fell by 3.3%, a narrowing of 9.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, while same-store sales in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets grew by 2.2%, a significant improvement from a 22.5% decline [4][6] - The company continues to focus on enhancing single-store efficiency, resulting in the closure of 307 underperforming stores, with a total of 6,337 stores remaining at the end of the quarter [4][9] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - The company experienced a notable improvement in same-store sales, particularly in high-margin priced products, with a 20.8% year-on-year increase in sales of priced gold products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) [4][6] - The proportion of retail value from priced products increased from 15.8% in the same period last year to 19.8% this year [6] Product Development and Strategy - The company is investing further in research and design to strengthen its portfolio of high-margin priced products and is optimizing its store structure to boost single-store sales [5][11] - A new high-end jewelry series has been launched, designed with Eastern aesthetics, aiming to enhance the brand's influence in the global high-end jewelry market [6] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to be HKD 74.25 billion, HKD 84.14 billion, and HKD 93.28 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7, 15.6, and 14.1 [5][11]
浮息债全解:利率变局中的攻守之道
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-24 05:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The value of floating - rate bonds is affected by factors such as changes in the benchmark interest rate, term spreads, and market expectations of interest rate movements. In a rising interest - rate environment, floating - rate bonds are more resistant to price declines compared to fixed - rate bonds, but they perform relatively weakly in a falling interest - rate environment. - Based on simulations of floating - rate bonds, the market expects the 1 - year LPR to decline steadily in the next two years, reaching a low of 2.8% in April 2027, and then rise to 3.1% by the end of 2027. - Considering the potential for additional interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds. Similarly, the current allocation value of DR007 floating - rate bonds may also be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [167][177]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 China's Floating - Rate Bond Historical Changes - **Issuance Scale**: Over the past 30 years, China's floating - rate bond issuance scale has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with three rounds of expansion and adjustment. The issuance scale reached a historical peak of 637.6 billion yuan in 2021, but has significantly decreased in the past three years [14]. - **Benchmark Interest Rate**: It has evolved from a single benchmark (1 - year fixed - deposit interest rate) to a diversified one. Currently, LPR and DR007 are the mainstream benchmark interest rates [20][27]. - **Bond Types**: Policy - bank bonds and asset - backed securities have alternately dominated the market. Since 2022, policy - bank bonds have once again become the main type of floating - rate bonds [34][41]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance term has changed from being highly concentrated (7 - 10 years) to gradually diversified and then re - concentrated (2 - 3 years) [46][51]. 3.2 Floating - Rate Bond Valuation Method - **Valuation Principle**: Based on the discounted cash - flow method (DCF), the present value of a floating - rate bond is calculated by discounting future coupon payments and the principal at maturity to the current point in time. However, the difficulty lies in predicting future coupon payments and selecting the discount rate [63][64]. - **Factors Affecting Investment Value**: Changes in the benchmark interest rate and term spreads (∆y) affect the value of floating - rate bonds. Generally, an increase in the benchmark interest rate leads to a decrease in bond value, and vice versa. The impact of term spreads on bond value needs to be analyzed in combination with changes in the benchmark interest rate [77][80]. 3.3 Relative Value of Floating - Rate Bonds - **Comparison with Fixed - Rate Bonds**: In a rising interest - rate environment, the price decline of floating - rate bonds is smaller than that of fixed - rate bonds; in a falling interest - rate environment, floating - rate bonds perform slightly worse than fixed - rate bonds [86][94]. 3.4 Absolute Value of Floating - Rate Bonds (Based on Historical Backtracking) - By observing the historical trends of floating - rate bonds with DR007 as the benchmark, it is found that the value changes of floating - rate bonds are complex and are affected by the fluctuations of the National Development Bank bond rate and DR007. When the two rates move in opposite directions, the direction of the floating - rate bond value change is clear; when they are stable, the value center of the floating - rate bond is stable; when they move in the same direction, the direction of the value change is uncertain [101][134]. 3.5 Future Interest - Rate Cut Path Implied by Current Floating - Rate Bonds - By simulating the cash flows of floating - rate bonds, the market's implied interest - rate cut/ hike path for the 1 - year LPR in the next three years can be predicted. The market expects the 1 - year LPR to decline steadily in the next two years, reach a low of 2.8% in April 2027, and then rise to 3.1% by the end of 2027. The implied interest - rate cut expectations of floating - rate National Development Bank bonds are stronger than those of Agricultural Development Bank bonds [154][162]. 3.6 Investment Value of Floating - Rate Bonds - **1 - year LPR Floating - Rate Bonds**: Considering the potential for additional interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [167]. - **DR007 Floating - Rate Bonds**: Through scenario analysis, it is found that under most scenarios, the current allocation value of DR007 floating - rate bonds is lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [172][175].